# Research run 2026-08-25T20:49 UTC ## What changed - NVDA closed +2.2% at $213.05, ending a seven-day slide, ahead of earnings Thu ~6:30am AEST; options imply a ~5% move. - META +2% to $570 even as an ex-data scientist testified only 0.2% of teens used Instagram's break reminder; Mosseri took the stand late Tuesday. - Anthropic will pitch IPO investors a $30T market on a $65B run-rate (WSJ); OpenAI's data-center chief Chris Malone is the fourth exec to leave. - S&P 500 +0.3%, Nasdaq +0.7% as oil fell 5% and the 10-year hit 4.62%; FIGR +6.5%, MRVL +4.8%; PCE lands 22:30 AEST tonight. - Siemens Energy ad-hoc after Xetra close: board starts legal separation of Transformation of Industry into standalone company, will deconsolidate and keep minority stake. - Wall Street closes higher before Nvidia: S&P 500 +0.3%, Nasdaq +0.7%, chips +1.2-1.6%, 10-year yield 4.62% as WTI drops 5% on Iran de-escalation. - OpenAI says its Broadcom-co-designed Jalapeno inference chip beats Nvidia's GB300 on throughput per watt; Broadcom closes -0.6%, Robinhood +8%, Bloom +7%. ## Market summary Wall Street closed higher on Tuesday ahead of Nvidia: the S&P 500 rose 0.3% to 7,677, the Nasdaq 0.7% to 26,151 and semis led (SOX about +1.2%, SOXX ETF +1.6%), while the 10-year yield fell 9bp to 4.62% as WTI crude dropped 5% to ~$80.70 on signs the US is shifting to economic rather than military pressure on Iran; bitcoin briefly topped $80K before settling ~$78.8K. The Asia open looks constructive: Nikkei futures are +1.3% at ~66,170 versus Tuesday's 65,856 cash close, ASX 200 futures are +1.0% at 9,147, and the Kospi finished +0.7% on Tuesday after SK hynix reversed a 4.5% drop. On the watchlist, Robinhood (+8.2%), Bloom (+6.6%) and Sea (+6.5%) led, Broadcom (-0.6%) and GE Vernova (-1.6%) lagged, and Siemens Energy published an after-close ad-hoc confirming it will separate and deconsolidate its Transformation of Industry unit while keeping a minority stake, so Frankfurt reacts tonight AEST. Today's path: July PCE and the Q2 GDP revision at 22:30 AEST tonight, then Nvidia (consensus ~$92B revenue) and Salesforce at ~6:30am AEST Thursday, Marvell on Friday morning AEST, and Fed chair Warsh at Jackson Hole at 12am AEST Saturday; OpenAI's claim that its Broadcom-built Jalapeno chip beats Nvidia's GB300 on efficiency adds a custom-silicon subplot to the print. ## Holdings - AMZN: hold @ $261.06 - Closed down 0.4% at $261.06 (flat after hours) after Monday's 1.3% gain, with the P/E near a decade low and AWS growing 37% on a $496B backlog; the reported 'Tetromino' plan for AI-automated delivery stations (2.5x throughput, pilot in 2028) is a long-dated margin lever, but the $220B capex plan, Bezos selling and state antitrust suits keep a lid on the multiple, so hold rather than chase. - AXOS: hold @ $98.82 - Closed up 1.9% at $98.82 after announcing a dual listing on NYSE Texas, a cosmetic change; Benchmark's Aug 13 target hike to $120 (Buy) on above-peer growth and 17% ROE supports continuing to hold. - BABA: watch @ $119.44 - The ADR closed up 0.8% at $119.44 as insiders lean in against the record HK$80B ($10.2B) placement: Jack Ma bought more than HK$600M of shares over consecutive days (SCMP) and chair Joe Tsai added another 720,000 Hong Kong shares on Tuesday, while BofA kept Buy/$172; the ~3.7% dilution and Michael Burry's exit still argue for waiting for the stock to base before adding. - ENPH: watch @ $37.35 - Closed up 0.5% at $37.35 (slightly lower after hours) after a 3.7% drop on Aug 24 with no fundamental catalyst; the AI assistant, IQ Battery C80 and a Dutch net-metering campaign are incremental, so stay on the sidelines until residential demand stabilizes. - FIGR: hold @ $41.14 - Jumped 6.5% to close at $41.14 (and $41.39 after hours) after EDX Markets integrated Figure's YLDS stablecoin as institutional collateral and a treasury asset, another distribution win on top of the Q2 beat (marketplace volume +132% to $4.3B) and Bernstein's $70 target; hold and let execution play out. - GOOGL: add @ $346.96 - Closed down 0.3% at $346.96 despite a busy day: Google Cloud launched Gemini Enterprise for Financial Services and for Legal (Moody's, Deutsche Bank, CME, Weil on board), Waymo confirmed Munich as its first EU city with public service targeted for late 2027, and Morgan Stanley argued TPUs could generate ~$200B of cloud revenue over two years; these support Cloud's +82% growth, Pixel production leaving China by 2027 trims tariff risk, and the post-Jeff-Dean dip remains a reasonable entry. - LDI: trim @ $0.92 - Bounced 3.7% to close at $0.92 but remains below the $1 NYSE threshold after the formal non-compliance notice, with Goldman at Sell and a $1 target; exchange-compliance and dilution risk argue for reducing exposure. - META: hold @ $570.05 - Closed up 2% at $570.05 as William Blair flagged a $100B+ opportunity in Meta's business AI agents and The Information's report that the Hatch consumer agent launches within weeks; but in the 29-state teen-addiction trial a former Instagram data scientist testified that only ~0.2% of teens ever turned on the opt-in 'take a break' reminder and that leadership rejected making it default for fear of hurting engagement metrics, and Instagram head Adam Mosseri began testifying late Tuesday. With the $942M New Mexico liability and $125-145B capex keeping the stock ~28% off its high, hold pending trial clarity. - MRVL: hold @ $240.38 - Closed up 4.8% at $240.38 as Rosenblatt initiated at Buy with a $300 target, Susquehanna lifted its target to $265 (Wells Fargo $310 on Monday) and BofA listed it among eight 'enhanced buy' chip stocks, all citing the Google warrant deal covering roughly $120B of custom AI product business through 2033; options still imply a ~12% move on Thursday's print (Fri ~6:30am AEST) against ~$2.71B revenue and $0.93 EPS consensus, and with the stock up ~160% YTD the bar is high, so hold through the report. - MU: hold @ $932.97 - Closed up 2.5% at $932.97, recovering part of Monday's 5.8% drop on the CXMT/YMTC-for-Apple report, which Lynx Equity called an overreaction; Mizuho trimmed its target to $1,300 from $1,375 but kept Outperform, BofA named it an 'enhanced buy' while flagging ~10% further downside risk for the SOX, Barron's argues Micron will miss part of a 50% memory-price rise because of long-term contracts, HBM remains sold out through 2027, and expect volatility through Nvidia's print. - NFLX: add @ $82.23 - Closed up 2.8% at $82.23 after Wolfe Research raised its target to $95 from $84 (22x 2028 EPS of $4.41), arguing Q2's soft engagement was a release-schedule issue and that returning titles set up stronger second-half results; reports that Netflix is exploring hosting Peacock and Fox One inside its own app point to a distribution-hub strategy, an ads-leadership reshuffle is worth watching but does not change the thesis, and at ~36% below the 52-week high with ad-tier and bundling optionality the valuation reset remains an add opportunity. - NVDA: hold @ $213.05 - Closed up 2.2% at $213.05 ($213.75 after hours), snapping a seven-day losing streak, as Raymond James lifted its target to $352 and Perplexity launched a local-AI 'Portable Computer' co-developed with Nvidia for DGX Spark and RTX machines; the offsets are OpenAI's Jalapeño chip, whose SemiAnalysis benchmarks claim more throughput per kilowatt than Blackwell (volume in 2027), and Morgan Stanley credit analysts flagging ~$200B of contingent financing exposure by 2028 from Nvidia's vendor-financing of customers. Options price a ~5% (~$280B) move on Wednesday's report (Thu ~6:30am AEST) against ~$92B revenue consensus, so hold and reassess after the print. - OPENAI: hold - Head of data centers Chris Malone has left (WSJ), the fourth senior departure after Fidji Simo, Brad Lightcap and Denise Dresser ahead of a planned 2027 IPO, just as OpenAI lifts projected compute spending to ~$750B through 2030 and signs a 10GW Ohio lease backed by up to $105B of Nvidia guarantees; execution risk on the buildout rises, but Jalapeño's first benchmarks (more tokens per user and more throughput per kilowatt than Blackwell, scale deployment in 2027) are a meaningful step toward lowering its compute bill, offsetting the Alabama AG subpoena over the Hugging Face breach. Private, so hold. Marked at 5.43x cost: latest valuation ~$852B (2026-08) vs ~$157B at entry (https://techcrunch.com/2026/08/10/openai-reportedly-completed-a-7-billion-employee-tender-offer/). - RKT: hold @ $14.3 - Closed up 1.5% at $14.30 as Rocket Money launched Rowan, an Anthropic-powered AI agent that cancels subscriptions, renegotiates bills and automates savings for a new Premium Plus tier, a small but real step toward monetizing the personal-finance funnel; Monday's FTC settlement of the Zillow/Redfin rental-listings case removed a legal overhang, the 10-year yield falling to 4.62% helps at the margin, but after the earlier ~50% run the shares still look fully priced, so hold. - STRIPE: hold - Beyond the OpenRouter deal, Stripe launched Treasury in Australia and was named a Gartner billing leader; steady expansion with no valuation-changing news, so hold the private position. Marked at 2.27x cost: latest valuation ~$159B (2026-02) vs ~$70B at entry (https://techcrunch.com/2026/02/24/stripes-valuation-soars-74-to-159-billion/). - TSM: add @ $417.41 - Closed up 1.8% at $417.41 after Taipei shares rebounded 1.05% to NT$2,400; Apple's new M6 is described as a 2nm chip, the first mass-market 2nm silicon from TSMC's sole-source customer, and with 40%+ 2026 growth guidance, Xiaomi's 3nm Xring and the Sony image-sensor JV underlining demand breadth, the pullback from the June high remains a buying opportunity. ## Watchlist - ALAB:US Astera Labs - accumulate (medium) - Astera Labs sells the connectivity silicon (PCIe/CXL retimers, Scorpio fabric switches, Ethernet) that ties GPUs and XPUs together inside AI racks; Q2 2026 revenue was $392M (+104% YoY, +27% QoQ) with eight straight EPS beats, and Scorpio switches become the largest product line in Q3, a quarter early. Shares closed +1.8% at $282.65 on Aug 25 (after-hours $283.98) and remain ~44% below their 52-week high, offering exposure to scale-up networking, the fastest-growing layer of AI infrastructure. - AVGO:US Broadcom - accumulate (medium) - Broadcom is the leading custom AI accelerator (XPU) and AI networking supplier to hyperscalers, guiding Q3 FY26 AI semiconductor revenue to ~$16B (>200% YoY) and total revenue to $29.4B (+84%), with a stated path to >$100B of AI revenue in 2027. The stock is ~23% below its June high after the July semiconductor selloff, giving a better entry into a franchise with multi-year committed custom-silicon programs plus a sticky VMware software annuity. On Aug 25 OpenAI published the first results for Jalapeno, the inference ASIC it co-designed with Broadcom, claiming up to 1.9x throughput per kilowatt and 3.6x lower latency than Nvidia's GB300 at 700W versus 1,400W, a public validation of the custom-XPU franchise a week before Broadcom reports. - SKHY:US SK hynix - accumulate (medium) - SK hynix supplies more than half of the world's HBM and just posted record Q2 2026 results: revenue KRW 79.3T (+257% YoY) and operating income KRW 60.5T (+557% YoY) at a 76% operating margin, with HBM4 mass shipments ramping in H2. On Aug 19 it accelerated a KRW 40T buyback-and-cancel program (24.07M shares, 3.3% of the count, executed over ~3 months from Aug 20) and lifted its shareholder-return target to over 50% of FCF, backed by ~KRW 69T of net cash; it is also weighing a first Japanese memory fab (Miyagi), and the July 2026 Nasdaq ADR broadens the investor base. On Aug 25 the Seoul shares reversed a 4.5% morning drop to close +0.4% at KRW 1,678,000 as the buyback and domestic buying absorbed foreign selling and the Kospi swung from -4% to +0.7%; Needham lifted its ADR target to $220 from $200, and the ADR closed +2.7% at $159.53 on Aug 25 (after-hours $159.27), recovering more than half of Monday's 4.9% drop. - 3750:HK CATL - buy (high) - CATL is the world's largest battery maker (~40% global EV battery share) and the clear leader in grid storage: H1 2026 revenue rose 55% to RMB 277B and net profit 42% to RMB 43.3B, with energy storage revenue up 88% to RMB 53B (nearly 20% of sales) as global storage deployments surge. It raised ~$5B in Hong Kong in April, announced a large buyback in July, Moody's moved its A3 outlook to positive in August, and on Aug 25 it agreed to pay RMB 2.56B (~$370M) for a 24.9% stake in Qiyuan Green Power, China's largest heavy-truck battery-swapping operator (1,600+ stations in 208 cities), making CATL the largest shareholder and the dominant player in commercial-vehicle swapping. The stock closed -2.7% at HK$621.00 on Aug 25 (Seres-backed Aiva is reportedly exploring joining CATL's swap network), ~22% below its 52-week high, with scale, cost and chemistry (sodium-ion, LFP) advantages competitors cannot match. - BE:US Bloom Energy - accumulate (medium) - Bloom's solid-oxide fuel cells have become a mainstream on-site power solution for AI data centers that cannot wait years for grid interconnects: Q2 2026 revenue jumped 166% to $1.07B with a 33% gross margin, and full-year guidance was raised to $3.9-4.2B revenue and $800-900M non-GAAP operating income. A 2.8 GW Oracle agreement and the Nebius Vineland win show the customer base broadening to hyperscalers and neoclouds, and the new Power Connect deployment system cuts installation time by over 40%. The Pelosi pop held all session: shares closed +6.6% at $217.45 on Aug 25 (after-hours $218.00) after +1.3% to $204.02 on Aug 24, as retail follows Nancy Pelosi's first-ever Bloom purchase (about $3-4.25M of stock and options, reported alongside Intel) and AI-infrastructure names (Bloom, Supermicro) rebound ahead of Nvidia; Goldman/sell-side EPS estimates are being hiked, and the stock remains ~36% off its June high. - ENR:DE Siemens Energy - accumulate (medium) - Siemens Energy is Europe's answer to GE Vernova: gas turbines, grid technologies (transformers, HVDC, switchgear) and wind. Fiscal Q3 2026 (June quarter) orders hit a record EUR 17.9B (book-to-bill 1.57), revenue grew 18.5% comparable to EUR 11.4B, profit before special items more than tripled to EUR 1.62B, pre-tax free cash flow rose to EUR 2.3B and the order backlog reached EUR 162B, with the Grid Technologies backlog alone at a record EUR 51B on transformer demand from US data centers; FY26 guidance was confirmed toward the upper end of the 10-12% margin range and Siemens Gamesa posted its first positive quarter in 15. The break-up question was answered on Aug 25: in an ad-hoc release at 20:25 CEST (18:25 UTC, after the Xetra close) the boards said Siemens Energy is starting preparations for the legal and operational separation of the Transformation of Industry business area (steam turbines, generators, compressors and industrial services: ~17,000 employees, FY25 revenue EUR 5.7B at an 11.3% margin, ~50% service, 85,000-unit installed base) into a standalone industrial-energy-solutions company. The objective is to deconsolidate the unit while retaining a meaningful minority stake, with options ranging from external investors (Goldman Sachs is running the process; CVC, EQT, Bain, Brookfield and KKR were reported as interested, and Bloomberg pegged the valuation above EUR 10B) to a capital-markets transaction. CEO Christian Bruch: 'If we don't change our structure, we limit what Transformation of Industry can achieve. Our current investment focus is on power generation and power transmission.' Shares closed +2.7% at EUR 152.76 on Aug 25 (day range EUR 150.48-154.88) before the release, so Wednesday's Xetra open is the first chance to price it; consensus target is ~EUR 197 and the stock is ~20% below the EUR 191.66 52-week high. A deconsolidation at EUR 10B+ would crystallise value for a ~EUR 5.7B-revenue unit, fund grid and gas-turbine capacity, and leave a cleaner AI-power pure play in gas, grid and wind. - GEV:US GE Vernova - accumulate (high) - GE Vernova is the key bottleneck supplier of gas turbines and grid equipment for the AI power buildout: Q2 2026 orders rose 88% organically to $24.2B, total backlog is ~$176B, the gas turbine backlog reached 116 GW (targeting 125 GW under contract by year-end), and H1 free cash flow of $5.1B already exceeded all of 2025. Capacity is being scaled from 20 GW/yr today to 24 GW in 2028 and 30 GW in 2030 with pricing power rising; the stock closed -1.6% at $926.73 on Aug 25 on no company news (the 295 MW Azulao I gas plant in Brazil entered commercial operation and a new medium-voltage UPS for AI data centers was launched) and is ~23% below its 52-week high after a Q2 EPS miss. - HOOD:US Robinhood Markets - accumulate (medium) - Robinhood posted record Q2 2026 revenue of $1.31B (+32% YoY) with a 57% adjusted EBITDA margin and $573M net income, while Gold subscribers hit 4.8M and margin, credit card and banking balances all set records. It is compounding into a full-stack retail financial platform (brokerage, crypto, banking, prediction markets, tokenization via Rothera/WonderFi), and the Clarity Act plus the crypto rally are near-term tailwinds; shares are ~28% off their 52-week high. After a 13% surge last week on Trump's Clarity Act endorsement and a bitcoin breakout, the stock gave back 4.2% to $103.62 on Aug 24 and then closed +8.2% at $112.09 on Aug 25, the best mover on the list. There is no single company catalyst: bitcoin briefly topped $80K before settling ~$78.8K, Webull's CEO said crypto buy orders are up ~300% since FINRA scrapped the $25K pattern-day-trader rule in June (a tailwind Robinhood shares), Goldman reiterated Buy on Coinbase and Robinhood, the Nasdaq is rebounding into Nvidia, and Robinhood Chain DEX Arcus launched pTokens that turn perp positions into transferable ERC-20 tokens (The Block, Crypto Briefing), a reminder of the tokenization optionality; Goldman ($123) and Bernstein ($160) targets frame the upside. - MELI:US MercadoLibre - accumulate (medium) - MercadoLibre is Latin America's dominant e-commerce, logistics and fintech platform. Q2 2026 revenue grew 49.8% to $10.17B, its fastest growth in four years and 30th straight quarter above 30%, unique active buyers rose to 89M (+18M YoY), the Mercado Pago credit book grew 75% to $16.4B with a deliberate shift to lower-risk borrowers, and adjusted EPS of $9.19 beat consensus. The stock fell to ~$1,813 after the print on margin compression and has recovered to $1,997 (+2.5% on Aug 25), still ~22% below its 52-week high, giving an entry into a non-US Internet compounder with a logistics-plus-payments moat comparable to Sea's. - NET:US Cloudflare - buy (high) - Cloudflare's growth is re-accelerating on AI: Q2 2026 revenue rose 36% to $696M, dollar-based net retention improved 6 points to 120%, large customers grew 27% to 4,698, and full-year guidance was lifted to $2.86-2.87B. Its global edge network is the natural control point for agentic and bot traffic (non-human traffic now >50%), and Workers/AI inference give it a second growth engine beyond security and CDN. Shares fell 4.4% to $280.35 on Aug 24 in a software/cloud selloff (Datadog -3%, Nebius -4% as its $5B convertible settled) with no company-specific news and slipped a further 1.0% to $277.58 on Aug 25 as software lagged the semis bounce; Cloudflare launched an AEO Visibility Dashboard that shows brands whether AI assistants recommend them, another agentic-web hook. We read the pullback as a better entry rather than a change in the story; consensus target is ~$334. - SE:US Sea Limited - buy (high) - Sea grew Q2 2026 revenue 48% to $7.8B with all three engines firing: Shopee GMV +28% to $38.3B (ad revenue +70%, eight straight quarters of sequential growth), Monee fintech revenue +59% with an $11.1B loan book (+62%) at 1.0% NPLs, and Garena gaming still growing. The stock closed +6.5% at $123.18 on Aug 25 with no company-specific news (an EM/Internet bid alongside MercadoLibre +2.5% and post-Q2 target hikes from BofA, Barclays, Morgan Stanley and Benchmark) and is still ~36% below its 52-week high while consensus targets sit near $155, an unusual growth-at-a-discount setup for a Southeast Asian platform with a widening logistics and payments moat. - SPOT:US Spotify Technology - accumulate (medium) - Spotify crossed 300M Premium subscribers in Q2 2026 (MAU +12% to 777M) with revenue +14% to EUR 4.8B, a record 33.4% gross margin and EUR 655M operating income, and just added $1.5B to its buyback. Pricing power, audiobooks/video podcasts and AI features (Personal Podcasts) plus the Reserved ticketing product extend the monetization runway on a subscriber base no rival can match. Shares closed +2.7% at $552.57 on Aug 25 as Spotify launched SongDNA, a fan-discovery feature. - 6861:JP Keyence Corp - buy (high) - Keyence is the picks-and-shovels supplier of machine vision, sensors and measurement systems for factory automation and the emerging humanoid/robotics supply chain; fiscal Q1 (June 2026 quarter) sales rose 33% to JPY 347B and net income 51% to JPY 139B, with overseas sales +39% (Asia +50%, Americas +31%). Operating margins above 50%, a 95% equity ratio and a direct-sales model with no factories give it one of the most durable moats in industrial tech; shares hit an all-time high in mid-August, pulled back ~7% with the global tech selloff, and closed +1.7% at JPY 82,250 on Aug 25 (no company news), still ~5% below the record, a better entry. - ASML:US ASML Holding - buy (high) - ASML is the sole supplier of EUV lithography and raised 2026 guidance for the second time to EUR 43-45B of sales at a 54-56% gross margin after a Q2 beat (EUR 9.3B sales, EUR 2.9B net income). Management says EUV capacity for 2027 is essentially fully booked with significant 2028 orders already in hand while it adds ~30% EUV capacity in 2027, giving rare multi-year revenue visibility in semicap. On Aug 25 BofA reiterated ASML as its top pick, calling the recent selloff unjustified; the ADR closed +0.2% at $1,744.16. - TER:US Teradyne - accumulate (medium) - Teradyne is the leading supplier of automated test equipment for AI compute and HBM silicon and, via Universal Robots and MiR, the largest Western pure-play in collaborative and mobile robots. Q2 2026 revenue more than doubled to $1.33B (+104% YoY) with gross margin up to 59.8%, operating income up nearly 5x to $441M and EPS of $2.38 vs $0.49 a year ago, while robotics grew 33% to ~$100M; AI-related demand is now roughly 70% of revenue. Shares closed +0.4% at $366.43 on Aug 25 (dividend declared Aug 24) and are ~25% below their 52-week high after the semis selloff, adding physical-AI and semi-test exposure the list lacks. ## Bellwether changes - h100_rental: $2.65/hr index (+1.5% 7d); 1-yr contract $2.35 (Mar-26) vs $1.70 (Oct-25); spot ~$4/bullish -> $2.68/hr index (0.0% 7d); 1-yr contract $2.35 (Mar-26) vs $1.70 (Oct-25); spot ~$4/bullish ## Calendar changes - added 2026-09-09 NET Cloudflare fireside chat at Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference (San Francisco) ## New news (12) - 2026-08-25 [positive] MACRO: Wall Street closes higher ahead of Nvidia and PCE as oil slides 5% and yields fall - The S&P 500 rose 0.32% to 7,677, the Nasdaq 0.66% to 26,151 and the Dow 0.30% to 53,577 as tech rebounded before Nvidia's Wednesday report; WTI fell 4.9% to $80.65, the 10-year yield dropped to 4.62% and the VIX eased to 15.5. AMD (+4.9%) led on a Raymond James upgrade, Moderna jumped 14%; after hours Intuit fell ~9% on weak guidance while Zoom beat and raised. July PCE and the second Q2 GDP estimate land at 22:30 AEST Wednesday. <https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/us-stocks-higher-at-close-of-trade-dow-jones-industrial-average-up-030-4875930> - 2026-08-25 [negative] META: Ex-Meta data scientist: only ~0.2% of teens used Instagram's break reminder; Mosseri takes the stand - In the 29-state teen social-media addiction trial in Oakland, former Instagram wellbeing-team data scientist George Volichenko testified under subpoena that roughly two in 1,000 weekly teen users activated the opt-in 'take a break' tool and that leadership rejected making it default because of fear it would dent core engagement metrics; Meta's lawyer countered that 0.2% still meant hundreds of thousands of teens. Instagram head Adam Mosseri began his testimony late Tuesday (Reuters), with the trial expected to run six to eight weeks. META still closed up 2% at $570.05. <https://thenextweb.com/news/meta-trial-volichenko-take-a-break-default-rejected> - 2026-08-25 [positive] ANTHROPIC: Anthropic to pitch IPO investors a $30T+ addressable market on a $65B run-rate, WSJ reports - The WSJ reports Anthropic will tell prospective IPO investors its total addressable market exceeds $30 trillion, topping SpaceX's $28.5T claim, derived from 'the full scope of work that could be completed with AI models'. Q2 revenue was $11.6B, the annualized run-rate reached $65B at end-July and 2028 revenue is projected at $190-200B; an S-1 is expected within weeks for a September/early-October debut at roughly a $2T valuation, potentially raising up to $100B. <https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/anthropic-claims-30t-ai-market-just-12x-the-entire-tech-sector-combined-4875750> - 2026-08-25 [negative] OPENAI: OpenAI data-center chief Chris Malone exits, fourth senior departure before planned 2027 IPO - The WSJ reports Chris Malone, OpenAI's head of data centers since March 2025 and a former Meta and Google infrastructure lead, left last week, following Fidji Simo, COO Brad Lightcap and CRO Denise Dresser; the Journal called the cluster of C-suite exits unusual even by pre-IPO standards, while Greg Brockman said 'I'm a constant, Sam is a constant'. Sachin Katti now oversees infrastructure as OpenAI raises projected compute spending to ~$750B through 2030 and signs a 10GW Ohio lease with SB Energy backed by up to $105B of Nvidia guarantees. <https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/openai-data-center-chief-exits-as-4-executives-leave-ahead-of-2027-ipo-4875869> - 2026-08-25 [positive] NVDA: Perplexity and Nvidia launch 'Portable Computer', a fully local AI agent for DGX Spark and RTX machines - Perplexity released Portable Computer, an agent platform that runs models, inference and security tooling entirely on local hardware (Nvidia DGX Spark or Linux boxes with 24GB+ RTX GPUs, Windows in September) for Pro, Max and Enterprise subscribers, consuming no billing credits for local work and asking permission before escalating to cloud frontier models. Co-developed with Nvidia, which calls it evidence that 'local AI reached an inflection point', it gives DGX Spark a flagship application; separately Nvidia is reported in talks to invest in Perplexity at a $30B+ valuation. <https://venturebeat.com/infrastructure/perplexity-partners-with-nvidia-to-launch-portable-computer-a-fully-local-ai-agent-with-zero-token-costs> - 2026-08-25 [negative] NVDA: Morgan Stanley credit desk flags ~$200B of contingent financing exposure from Nvidia's AI ecosystem support - Initiating credit coverage with a neutral view, Morgan Stanley said Nvidia's balance-sheet support for customers via residual-value structures tied to a $500B+ partnership and revenue-sharing deals could reach ~$200B of total credit exposure by end-2028, including ~$170B of contingent and off-balance-sheet obligations, so 'conventional leverage increasingly understates the credit story'; it called the $1T+ of guided GPU/XPU financing the key overhang and told bond investors to be patient despite wider spreads. <https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/nvidias-ai-financing-push-brings-new-credit-risks-morgan-stanley-says-4875159> - 2026-08-25 [positive] GOOGL: Waymo confirms Munich as first EU city, public robotaxi service targeted for late 2027 - Waymo said it will begin mapping and manual driving in Munich in the coming weeks with trained specialists behind the wheel, aiming to open fully autonomous ride-hailing to the public toward the end of 2027 in its third market outside the US; the German transport ministry and Bavarian government backed the move, with co-CEO Tekedra Mawakana calling Munich 'a world-class hub for mobility and engineering'. <https://waymo.com/blog/2026/08/waymo-in-munich> - 2026-08-25 [positive] RKT: Rocket Money launches Rowan, an Anthropic-powered AI agent that acts on members' finances - Rocket Companies' Rocket Money unveiled Rowan, an AI agent 'powered by Anthropic' built on a stack of agents trained on Rocket Money data, which monitors finances over text, cancels subscriptions, renegotiates bills and automates savings transfers rather than just surfacing insights; it is available to select subscribers in a new Premium Plus tier with broader rollout later in 2026, a modest new monetization lever for the personal-finance funnel feeding Rocket's mortgage business. <https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/rocket-moneys-rowan-rewrites-what-ai-can-do-in-personal-finance-302859522.html> - 2026-08-25 [positive] MU: BofA names Nvidia, Marvell and Micron among eight 'enhanced buy' chip stocks despite ~10% SOX downside risk - Vivek Arya told clients semiconductor risk/reward is positive despite three near-term headwinds (macro and data-center backlash, circular-financing concerns, heavy positioning), naming NVDA, MRVL, MU, LRCX, AMD, INTC, ADI and ON; BofA sees ~10% further downside risk to the SOX back to its pre-ChatGPT discount, which it calls unjustified given bullish Q4/Q1 seasonality and a 20x forward multiple against a ~70% earnings CAGR through 2028. <https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/these-8-chip-stocks-now-offer-enhanced-buying-opportunities-bofa-says-4874921> - 2026-08-25 [positive] ENR: Siemens Energy to separate Transformation of Industry into a standalone company, retain minority stake - In an ad-hoc release at 18:25 UTC, after the Xetra close, Siemens Energy said it is starting preparations for the legal and operational separation of Transformation of Industry (steam turbines, generators, compressors; ~17,000 staff, FY25 revenue EUR 5.7B at an 11.3% margin) into an independent industrial-energy-solutions company. It intends to deconsolidate the unit while keeping a meaningful minority stake, with options ranging from external investors to a capital-markets transaction; Goldman Sachs is running the process and private-equity interest has been reported at a valuation above EUR 10B. No price or timeline was given. Shares closed +2.7% at EUR 152.76 before the release. <https://www.siemens-energy.com/global/en/home/press-releases/siemens-energy-is-starting-preparations-for-business-area-transf.html> - 2026-08-25 [positive] AVGO: OpenAI's Broadcom-co-designed Jalapeno chip claims to beat Nvidia GB300 on inference efficiency - OpenAI published first results for Jalapeno, the 700W inference ASIC it co-developed with Broadcom, claiming up to 1.9x throughput per kilowatt and 3.6x lower latency than Nvidia's 1,400W GB300. It is a public validation of Broadcom's custom-XPU model a week before its Sep 2 report, though Broadcom still closed -0.6% at $356.74 (after-hours $358.00) as the market stays focused on its AI-financing exposure; the claim also raises the bar for Nvidia's Wednesday print. <https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/avgo/> - 2026-08-25 [positive] SE: Sea Limited rallies 6.5% to $123.18 on no company news - Sea closed +6.5% at $123.18, its best day since the Aug 11 Q2 print, with no company-specific announcement; the move tracked a broad EM/Internet bid (MercadoLibre +2.5% to $1,997) and follow-through from post-earnings target hikes at BofA ($143), Barclays ($156), Morgan Stanley ($153) and Benchmark ($175). The stock remains ~36% below its 52-week high with consensus targets near $155. <https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/se/> ## Notes Scheduled 6h run at 06:40 AEST (16:40 ET). Post-close pass: Tuesday US closes for all holdings and picks, session news, Siemens Energy follow-up, bellwether and calendar re-check.
Nothing here is financial advice. Holdings and opinions are my own; the "agent" sections are written by an automated research skill and may be wrong. Built 2026-08-26 02:53 UTC.