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# Research run 2026-08-25T22:38 UTC

## What changed

- Nvidia reports ~6:30am AEST Thursday: consensus $92.2B revenue, $2.09 EPS, Q3 guide bar ~$104B; NVDA $214.17 after hours, options imply 5-6%.
- Tonight 22:30 AEST: July PCE (core 0.2% m/m consensus) and Q2 GDP revision; Australian July CPI 11:30 AEST, consensus 3.2-3.3% from 3.8%.
- Watchlist: Credo (CRDO) added, FY26 revenue tripled, reports Sep 1; Spotify dropped as the slowest grower, stays on loves.
- Meta trial: Instagram design chief conceded teen harmful-content data was cut from a 2023 safety deck, Mosseri denied suppression; META $568 after hours.
- After hours: Intuit -7% on a 9-10% FY27 growth guide; S&P futures flat, WTI $81 as Iran and Oman float a Hormuz corridor.
- TrendForce: memory to absorb 68% of hyperscaler capex in 2027, server DRAM ~+270% in 2026; Gartner sees $837B memory revenue in 2026.

## Market summary

US futures are flat (S&P ~7,692) after Tuesday's gains; after hours Intuit fell 7% on a 9-10% FY27 growth guide, Zoom -3.9%, and Semtech guided Q3 revenue to $405-415M against $379M consensus. The 10-year is 4.63%, WTI $81 after Iran and Oman proposed a temporary Hormuz shipping corridor, bitcoin ~$78,600 and AUD/USD ~0.716. Asia set-up: Nikkei futures +0.2% at ~66,020, ASX 200 futures +0.3% after Tuesday's 9,165 close; Alibaba's HK$80B placement settles today and SK hynix wage talks restart from scratch. Australian July CPI lands 11:30 AEST (consensus headline 3.2-3.3% from 3.8%, trimmed mean 3.5%; RBA at 4.35% with ~13% odds of a September hike). Tonight 22:30 AEST: July PCE (core 0.2% m/m, 3.3% y/y consensus) and the Q2 GDP second estimate; then Nvidia ~6:30am AEST Thursday (consensus $92.2B revenue, $2.09 EPS, Q3 guide bar ~$104B, first Rubin shipments) alongside Salesforce, CrowdStrike and Synopsys, and Fed chair Warsh at Jackson Hole at 12am AEST Saturday.

## Holdings

- AMZN: hold @ $261.06 - Closed down 0.4% at $261.06 and $260.89 after hours, no overnight catalyst. New PYMNTS data puts Amazon at 17.8% of US clothing spend in 2026 (8.5% in 2019) versus Walmart's 6.0%, with $55.5B of apparel sales in H1, useful for the retail margin story but secondary to AWS. With $220B capex, Bezos selling and state antitrust suits still capping the multiple, hold.
- AXOS: hold @ $98.82 - Closed up 1.9% at $98.82, flat after hours, with nothing new after Tuesday's NYSE Texas dual-listing announcement. Benchmark's $120 target (Aug 17) and 17% ROE support continuing to hold.
- BABA: watch @ $119.44 - ADR closed up 0.8% at $119.44 ($119.52 after hours); the HK$80B placement of 710M shares at HK$112.70 is due to close today, Wednesday, so Hong Kong trading from 11:30 AEST shows whether insider buying (Ma >HK$600M, Tsai and Wu HK$202M) holds the line. HK close Tuesday was HK$114.20, only 1.3% above the placement price; wait for a base before adding.
- ENPH: watch @ $37.35 - Closed up 0.5% at $37.35 and $37.26 after hours with no new news overnight. Q3 revenue guide is $290-320M, below last year, and the Dutch net-metering campaign, AI assistant and IQ Battery C80 are incremental, so stay on the sidelines until residential demand stabilizes.
- FIGR: hold @ $41.14 - Closed up 6.5% at $41.14, giving back 0.5% to $40.94 after hours, with no follow-on news after the EDX Markets YLDS collateral integration. Q2 revenue +121% to $198.8M and marketplace volume +132% to $4.3B underpin Bernstein's $70 target; hold and let execution play out.
- GOOGL: add @ $346.96 - Closed down 0.3% at $346.96 and $347.20 after hours. Overnight additions are small: Ask Gemini in Google Chat rolls out to Workspace customers from Aug 26 and a distributed-database vendor (Rezolv AI) was selected by Google. The bigger drivers are unchanged: Cloud +82%, Waymo's Munich launch for 2027, Morgan Stanley's ~$200B TPU cloud-revenue case, and the stock sitting ~3% under its 50-day average near $358, so the post-Jeff-Dean dip remains an entry.
- LDI: trim @ $0.92 - Closed up 3.7% at $0.92 and $0.94 after hours, still below the $1 NYSE threshold with a six-month cure window running from the Aug 21 notice. Goldman is at Sell with a $1 target; exchange-compliance and reverse-split or dilution risk argue for reducing exposure.
- META: hold @ $570.05 - Closed up 2% at $570.05, easing to $568.01 after hours. In the 29-state trial Adam Mosseri denied any policy of suppressing child-safety risks, but Instagram's product-design director Francesco Fogu conceded that data showing teens saw 1.5x more bullying, suicide, hate and violent content than adults was removed from a 2023 safety presentation, and that 'take a break' adoption would suffer without being default. Trial runs through September with penalties up to ~$200B sought; with $125-145B capex and the stock ~26% down YTD, hold pending trial clarity.
- MRVL: hold @ $240.38 - Closed up 4.8% at $240.38 and ticked to $241.52 after hours after Rosenblatt (Buy, $300), Susquehanna ($265) and Wells Fargo ($310) target moves tied to the Google warrant deal (240 tranches vesting per $500M of custom-silicon purchases, ~$120B through FY2033). Thursday's print (Fri ~6:30am AEST) faces ~$2.71B revenue and $0.93 EPS consensus, but the real bar is Q3 guidance versus the $3.03B street number; with the stock up ~160% YTD and options implying a ~12% move, hold through the report.
- MU: hold @ $932.97 - Closed up 2.5% at $932.97 ($935.00 after hours), still about 3% below the 50-day average after Monday's CXMT/YMTC-for-Apple drop; Gartner's Aug 24 update sees memory revenue at $837B in 2026 (DRAM +247%) and above $1T in 2027 with new fabs not rebalancing supply through 2027, which supports the HBM sold-out story even as Mizuho trimmed its target to $1,300 and Barron's argues long-term contracts cap Micron's share of a 50% price rise. Nvidia's print tonight is the next swing factor, so hold.
- NFLX: add @ $82.23 - Closed up 2.8% at $82.23 ($82.16 after hours) on Wolfe's $95 target (22x 2028 EPS of $4.41) and its read that Q2's soft engagement was a scheduling issue; nothing new overnight. Still ~36% below the 52-week high with ad-tier, NFL and rival-streamer hosting optionality, so the valuation reset remains an add.
- NVDA: hold @ $213.05 - Closed up 2.2% at $213.05 and $214.17 after hours ahead of the print (Thu ~6:30am AEST). Consensus is ~$92.2B revenue (vs $91B +/-2% guide, ex-China) and ~$2.06-2.09 EPS, with the street looking for a Q3 guide near $104.2B (+83% y/y) and ~75% gross margin; Morgan Stanley pegs Rubin at nearly $9B of Q3 sales, while analysts want detail on custom-chip competition (Jalapeno, TPUs), buyback framework, memory cost pass-through and the ~$500B customer-financing exposure. Options imply a 5-6% move, the smallest into an Nvidia print in years; hold and reassess after guidance.
- OPENAI: hold - Nothing new overnight beyond the o3 retirement from ChatGPT on Aug 26; the open questions remain the four senior departures ahead of a 2027 IPO, ~$750B of planned compute spend through 2030 backed partly by Nvidia guarantees, and whether Jalapeno's per-watt benchmarks translate to 2027 volume. Nvidia's call tonight may add colour on the $105B Ohio guarantee. Private, so hold. Marked at 5.43x cost: latest valuation ~$852B (2026-08) vs ~$157B at entry (https://techcrunch.com/2026/08/10/openai-reportedly-completed-a-7-billion-employee-tender-offer/).
- RKT: hold @ $14.3 - Closed up 1.5% at $14.30, unchanged after hours, with no news since the Rowan AI-agent launch for Rocket Money's Premium Plus tier; the 10-year at 4.62% helps refi volume at the margin, but after the ~50% run and Q2's 9.6% post-earnings drop the shares look fully priced, so hold.
- STRIPE: hold - No new valuation event: the OpenRouter acquisition (~$7B), Treasury in Australia and the Gartner billing-leader rating are steady expansion, not a mark change, so hold the private position. Marked at 2.27x cost: latest valuation ~$159B (2026-02) vs ~$70B at entry (https://techcrunch.com/2026/02/24/stripes-valuation-soars-74-to-159-billion/).
- TSM: add @ $417.41 - Closed up 1.8% at $417.41 ($417.76 after hours) after Taipei shares rose 1.05% to NT$2,400 on Tuesday; Taipei had not yet opened at 08:30 AEST, and Wednesday's session will trade off Nvidia positioning before the print. No new company news overnight; with 40%+ 2026 growth guidance, Apple's 2nm M6 and up-to-10% 2027 price rises, the pullback from the June high remains a buying opportunity.

## Watchlist changes

- removed SPOT:US - List is capped at 15 and Spotify is the slowest grower on it: Q2 revenue +14%, Q3 user and operating-income guidance below consensus and MAU growth slowing, so it is a margin-expansion compounder rather than a growth thesis. Credo brings >100% revenue growth and a Sep 1 catalyst. Spotify stays on the loves list and can return after its Oct 27 print.
- added CRDO:US (accumulate, medium conviction)

## Watchlist

- ALAB:US Astera Labs - accumulate (medium) - Astera Labs sells the connectivity silicon (PCIe/CXL retimers, Scorpio fabric switches, Ethernet) that ties GPUs and XPUs together inside AI racks; Q2 2026 revenue was $392M (+104% YoY, +27% QoQ) with eight straight EPS beats, and Scorpio switches become the largest product line in Q3, a quarter early. Shares closed +1.8% at $282.65 on Aug 25 (after-hours $283.98) and remain ~44% below their 52-week high, offering exposure to scale-up networking, the fastest-growing layer of AI infrastructure.
- AVGO:US Broadcom - accumulate (medium) - Broadcom is the leading custom AI accelerator (XPU) and AI networking supplier to hyperscalers, guiding Q3 FY26 AI semiconductor revenue to ~$16B (>200% YoY) and total revenue to $29.4B (+84%), with a stated path to >$100B of AI revenue in 2027. The stock is ~23% below its June high after the July semiconductor selloff, giving a better entry into a franchise with multi-year committed custom-silicon programs plus a sticky VMware software annuity. On Aug 25 OpenAI published the first results for Jalapeno, the inference ASIC it co-designed with Broadcom, claiming up to 1.9x throughput per kilowatt and 3.6x lower latency than Nvidia's GB300 at 700W versus 1,400W, a public validation of the custom-XPU franchise a week before Broadcom reports.
- CRDO:US Credo Technology - accumulate (medium) - Credo makes the active electrical cables (AECs), optical DSPs and retimers that link GPUs and switches inside AI clusters, and its ZeroFlap AECs have become the default in-rack copper link for hyperscalers. Fiscal 2026 (ended May 2) revenue tripled to $1.335B, with Q4 revenue of $437M (+157% YoY) at a 68% gross margin and GAAP net income of $169M; Q1 FY27 guidance of $465-475M implies roughly a doubling YoY, and the print lands on Sep 1 after the close, a day before Broadcom. Four hyperscalers each exceed 10% of revenue (top three 34%, 27% and 16% last reported), so the base has broadened from one anchor customer. Shares closed +1.8% at $226.51 on Aug 25 (after-hours $226.06), 27% below the $308.67 52-week high, with consensus targets near $283; it pairs with Astera Labs as a second pure play on scale-up connectivity, the fastest-growing layer of AI capex.
- SKHY:US SK hynix - accumulate (medium) - SK hynix supplies more than half of the world's HBM and just posted record Q2 2026 results: revenue KRW 79.3T (+257% YoY) and operating income KRW 60.5T (+557% YoY) at a 76% operating margin, with HBM4 mass shipments ramping in H2. On Aug 19 it accelerated a KRW 40T buyback-and-cancel program (24.07M shares, 3.3% of the count, executed over ~3 months from Aug 20) and lifted its shareholder-return target to over 50% of FCF, backed by ~KRW 69T of net cash; it is also weighing a first Japanese memory fab (Miyagi), and the July 2026 Nasdaq ADR broadens the investor base. On Aug 25 the Seoul shares reversed a 4.5% morning drop to close +0.4% at KRW 1,678,000 as the buyback and domestic buying absorbed foreign selling and the Kospi swung from -4% to +0.7%; Needham lifted its ADR target to $220 from $200, and the ADR closed +2.7% at $159.53 on Aug 25 (after-hours $159.27), recovering more than half of Monday's 4.9% drop.
- 3750:HK CATL - buy (high) - CATL is the world's largest battery maker (~40% global EV battery share) and the clear leader in grid storage: H1 2026 revenue rose 55% to RMB 277B and net profit 42% to RMB 43.3B, with energy storage revenue up 88% to RMB 53B (nearly 20% of sales) as global storage deployments surge. It raised ~$5B in Hong Kong in April, announced a large buyback in July, Moody's moved its A3 outlook to positive in August, and on Aug 25 it agreed to pay RMB 2.56B (~$370M) for a 24.9% stake in Qiyuan Green Power, China's largest heavy-truck battery-swapping operator (1,600+ stations in 208 cities), making CATL the largest shareholder and the dominant player in commercial-vehicle swapping. The stock closed -2.7% at HK$621.00 on Aug 25 (Seres-backed Aiva is reportedly exploring joining CATL's swap network), ~22% below its 52-week high, with scale, cost and chemistry (sodium-ion, LFP) advantages competitors cannot match.
- BE:US Bloom Energy - accumulate (medium) - Bloom's solid-oxide fuel cells have become a mainstream on-site power solution for AI data centers that cannot wait years for grid interconnects: Q2 2026 revenue jumped 166% to $1.07B with a 33% gross margin, and full-year guidance was raised to $3.9-4.2B revenue and $800-900M non-GAAP operating income. A 2.8 GW Oracle agreement and the Nebius Vineland win show the customer base broadening to hyperscalers and neoclouds, and the new Power Connect deployment system cuts installation time by over 40%. The Pelosi pop held all session: shares closed +6.6% at $217.45 on Aug 25 (after-hours $218.00) after +1.3% to $204.02 on Aug 24, as retail follows Nancy Pelosi's first-ever Bloom purchase (about $3-4.25M of stock and options, reported alongside Intel) and AI-infrastructure names (Bloom, Supermicro) rebound ahead of Nvidia; Goldman/sell-side EPS estimates are being hiked, and the stock remains ~36% off its June high.
- ENR:DE Siemens Energy - accumulate (medium) - Siemens Energy is Europe's answer to GE Vernova: gas turbines, grid technologies (transformers, HVDC, switchgear) and wind. Fiscal Q3 2026 (June quarter) orders hit a record EUR 17.9B (book-to-bill 1.57), revenue grew 18.5% comparable to EUR 11.4B, profit before special items more than tripled to EUR 1.62B, pre-tax free cash flow rose to EUR 2.3B and the order backlog reached EUR 162B, with the Grid Technologies backlog alone at a record EUR 51B on transformer demand from US data centers; FY26 guidance was confirmed toward the upper end of the 10-12% margin range and Siemens Gamesa posted its first positive quarter in 15. The break-up question was answered on Aug 25: in an ad-hoc release at 20:25 CEST (18:25 UTC, after the Xetra close) the boards said Siemens Energy is starting preparations for the legal and operational separation of the Transformation of Industry business area (steam turbines, generators, compressors and industrial services: ~17,000 employees, FY25 revenue EUR 5.7B at an 11.3% margin, ~50% service, 85,000-unit installed base) into a standalone industrial-energy-solutions company. The objective is to deconsolidate the unit while retaining a meaningful minority stake, with options ranging from external investors (Goldman Sachs is running the process; CVC, EQT, Bain, Brookfield and KKR were reported as interested, and Bloomberg pegged the valuation above EUR 10B) to a capital-markets transaction. CEO Christian Bruch: 'If we don't change our structure, we limit what Transformation of Industry can achieve. Our current investment focus is on power generation and power transmission.' Shares closed +2.7% at EUR 152.76 on Aug 25 (day range EUR 150.48-154.88) before the release; the only post-release trading so far, on Tradegate up to 22:00 CEST, left the stock at EUR 153.50 (bid 152.90/ask 153.50), about 0.5% above the Xetra close, so there was no knee-jerk selling and the Xetra open at 17:00 AEST Wednesday is the first real test; consensus target is ~EUR 197 and the stock is ~20% below the EUR 191.66 52-week high. A deconsolidation at EUR 10B+ would crystallise value for a ~EUR 5.7B-revenue unit, fund grid and gas-turbine capacity, and leave a cleaner AI-power pure play in gas, grid and wind.
- GEV:US GE Vernova - accumulate (high) - GE Vernova is the key bottleneck supplier of gas turbines and grid equipment for the AI power buildout: Q2 2026 orders rose 88% organically to $24.2B, total backlog is ~$176B, the gas turbine backlog reached 116 GW (targeting 125 GW under contract by year-end), and H1 free cash flow of $5.1B already exceeded all of 2025. Capacity is being scaled from 20 GW/yr today to 24 GW in 2028 and 30 GW in 2030 with pricing power rising; the stock closed -1.6% at $926.73 on Aug 25 on no company news (the 295 MW Azulao I gas plant in Brazil entered commercial operation and a new medium-voltage UPS for AI data centers was launched; on Aug 26 at CIGRE Paris it added the F35g 170 kV SF6-free gas-insulated switchgear, completing an SF6-free GIS range from 72.5 to 420 kV that is available for order and built in Europe) and is ~23% below its 52-week high after a Q2 EPS miss.
- HOOD:US Robinhood Markets - accumulate (medium) - Robinhood posted record Q2 2026 revenue of $1.31B (+32% YoY) with a 57% adjusted EBITDA margin and $573M net income, while Gold subscribers hit 4.8M and margin, credit card and banking balances all set records. It is compounding into a full-stack retail financial platform (brokerage, crypto, banking, prediction markets, tokenization via Rothera/WonderFi), and the Clarity Act plus the crypto rally are near-term tailwinds; shares are ~28% off their 52-week high. After a 13% surge last week on Trump's Clarity Act endorsement and a bitcoin breakout, the stock gave back 4.2% to $103.62 on Aug 24 and then closed +8.2% at $112.09 on Aug 25, the best mover on the list. There is no single company catalyst: bitcoin briefly topped $80K before settling ~$78.8K, Webull's CEO said crypto buy orders are up ~300% since FINRA scrapped the $25K pattern-day-trader rule in June (a tailwind Robinhood shares), Goldman reiterated Buy on Coinbase and Robinhood, the Nasdaq is rebounding into Nvidia, and Robinhood Chain DEX Arcus launched pTokens that turn perp positions into transferable ERC-20 tokens (The Block, Crypto Briefing), a reminder of the tokenization optionality; Goldman ($123) and Bernstein ($160) targets frame the upside. Bernstein's Aug 25 note put prediction-market trading volume at ~$240B for 2026, rising to ~$1T and ~$10.8B of industry revenue by 2030, a segment Robinhood has been expanding in; shares eased 0.4% to $111.62 after hours.
- MELI:US MercadoLibre - accumulate (medium) - MercadoLibre is Latin America's dominant e-commerce, logistics and fintech platform. Q2 2026 revenue grew 49.8% to $10.17B, its fastest growth in four years and 30th straight quarter above 30%, unique active buyers rose to 89M (+18M YoY), the Mercado Pago credit book grew 75% to $16.4B with a deliberate shift to lower-risk borrowers, and adjusted EPS of $9.19 beat consensus. The stock fell to ~$1,813 after the print on margin compression and has recovered to $1,997 (+2.5% on Aug 25), still ~22% below its 52-week high, giving an entry into a non-US Internet compounder with a logistics-plus-payments moat comparable to Sea's.
- NET:US Cloudflare - buy (high) - Cloudflare's growth is re-accelerating on AI: Q2 2026 revenue rose 36% to $696M, dollar-based net retention improved 6 points to 120%, large customers grew 27% to 4,698, and full-year guidance was lifted to $2.86-2.87B. Its global edge network is the natural control point for agentic and bot traffic (non-human traffic now >50%), and Workers/AI inference give it a second growth engine beyond security and CDN. Shares fell 4.4% to $280.35 on Aug 24 in a software/cloud selloff (Datadog -3%, Nebius -4% as its $5B convertible settled) with no company-specific news and slipped a further 1.0% to $277.58 on Aug 25 as software lagged the semis bounce; Cloudflare launched an AEO Visibility Dashboard that shows brands whether AI assistants recommend them, another agentic-web hook. We read the pullback as a better entry rather than a change in the story; consensus target is ~$334.
- SE:US Sea Limited - buy (high) - Sea grew Q2 2026 revenue 48% to $7.8B with all three engines firing: Shopee GMV +28% to $38.3B (ad revenue +70%, eight straight quarters of sequential growth), Monee fintech revenue +59% with an $11.1B loan book (+62%) at 1.0% NPLs, and Garena gaming still growing. The stock closed +6.5% at $123.18 on Aug 25 with no company-specific news (an EM/Internet bid alongside MercadoLibre +2.5% and post-Q2 target hikes from BofA, Barclays, Morgan Stanley and Benchmark) and is still ~36% below its 52-week high while consensus targets sit near $155, an unusual growth-at-a-discount setup for a Southeast Asian platform with a widening logistics and payments moat.
- 6861:JP Keyence Corp - buy (high) - Keyence is the picks-and-shovels supplier of machine vision, sensors and measurement systems for factory automation and the emerging humanoid/robotics supply chain; fiscal Q1 (June 2026 quarter) sales rose 33% to JPY 347B and net income 51% to JPY 139B, with overseas sales +39% (Asia +50%, Americas +31%). Operating margins above 50%, a 95% equity ratio and a direct-sales model with no factories give it one of the most durable moats in industrial tech; shares hit an all-time high in mid-August, pulled back ~7% with the global tech selloff, and closed +1.7% at JPY 82,250 on Aug 25 (no company news), still ~5% below the record, a better entry.
- ASML:US ASML Holding - buy (high) - ASML is the sole supplier of EUV lithography and raised 2026 guidance for the second time to EUR 43-45B of sales at a 54-56% gross margin after a Q2 beat (EUR 9.3B sales, EUR 2.9B net income). Management says EUV capacity for 2027 is essentially fully booked with significant 2028 orders already in hand while it adds ~30% EUV capacity in 2027, giving rare multi-year revenue visibility in semicap. On Aug 25 BofA reiterated ASML as its top pick, calling the recent selloff unjustified; the ADR closed +0.2% at $1,744.16.
- TER:US Teradyne - accumulate (medium) - Teradyne is the leading supplier of automated test equipment for AI compute and HBM silicon and, via Universal Robots and MiR, the largest Western pure-play in collaborative and mobile robots. Q2 2026 revenue more than doubled to $1.33B (+104% YoY) with gross margin up to 59.8%, operating income up nearly 5x to $441M and EPS of $2.38 vs $0.49 a year ago, while robotics grew 33% to ~$100M; AI-related demand is now roughly 70% of revenue. Shares closed +0.4% at $366.43 on Aug 25 (dividend declared Aug 24) and are ~25% below their 52-week high after the semis selloff, adding physical-AI and semi-test exposure the list lacks.

## Bellwether changes

- memory_prices: +13-18% QoQ 3Q26 (after +93-98% 1Q26, +58-63% 2Q26); DDR5 16Gb spot $54.17/bullish -> +13-18% QoQ 3Q26 (after +93-98% 1Q26, +58-63% 2Q26); TrendForce now sees server DRAM ~+270% cumulative in 2026, HBM +70-140% in 2027; DDR5 16Gb spot $54.17 (flat)/bullish
- neocloud_credit: Jul-26 $2.6B loan at SOFR+550, 97 OID, 10.44% YTM (talk +425-450); CDS ~855bp; Apr-26 notes 9.75%/bearish -> CoreWeave Jul-26 $2.6B loan at SOFR+550, 10.44% YTM; CDS ~855bp (Jul 29); vs Nebius $5B converts settled Aug 24 at 0.50% (2030) and 4.50% (2034), 40-45% premiums/bearish
- power_bottleneck: 474 GW ERCOT requests (~90% data centers); GE Vernova turbine backlog 116 GW; ~5-7 yr lead times/bullish -> 474 GW ERCOT requests across 1,800+ projects (~427 GW data centers) vs ~193 GW installed; GE Vernova turbine backlog 116 GW; ~5-7 yr lead times/bullish

## Calendar changes

- added 2026-08-27 MACRO ABS Private New Capital Expenditure, June quarter 2026 (actual and expected capex)
- added 2026-09-01 CRDO Credo Technology Q1 FY2027 results (quarter ended Aug 1)
- added 2026-09-02 HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise Q3 FY2026 results (quarter ended Jul 31)
- added 2026-09-03 CIEN Ciena fiscal Q3 2026 results (guide $1.625B +/- $50M)
- added 2026-09-09 AAPL Apple September event: iPhone 18 Pro / Pro Max and foldable iPhone Ultra expected (date per Bloomberg, unconfirmed)

## New news (17)

- 2026-08-26 [negative] MACRO: Intuit drops 7% after hours on FY27 growth guide of 9-10% - Q4 EPS $4.03 and revenue $4.354B both beat, but FY27 revenue growth of 9-10% versus 14% in FY26 and a flat-to-down Mailchimp outlook wiped about $6.9B of value; Zoom fell 3.9% on an in-line revenue guide while Semtech guided Q3 revenue to $405-415M versus $379M consensus. <https://www.asktraders.com/analysis/intuit-stock-tumbles-in-after-hours-trading-despite-q4-earnings-beat/>
- 2026-08-26 [positive] MACRO: Iran and Oman propose temporary Hormuz shipping corridor with mine-clearing - A phased framework covers a temporary joint navigation corridor, joint mine-clearing and talks on a permanent corridor, with other Gulf states to be involved; traffic through the strait, which normally carries about a fifth of seaborne oil and LNG, remains largely paralysed, and China condemned the new US sanctions. <https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/25/iran-oman-discuss-temporary-shipping-lane-through-strait-of-hormuz>
- 2026-08-26 [neutral] MACRO: Australia July CPI due 11:30 AEST: consensus 3.2-3.3% headline, trimmed mean 3.5% - CBA and ANZ look for 3.2% y/y and NAB and Westpac 3.3%, down from 3.8% on fuel base effects, with the trimmed mean seen easing to about 3.5% from 3.6%; Westpac's 0.4% m/m trimmed-mean call sits slightly above the RBA's track, and an in-line or softer core print would extend the hold at 4.35%. <https://investinglive.com/central-banks/preview-australia-s-july-cpi-set-to-ease-to-3-2-3-3pct-as-trimmed-mean-holds-near-3-5pct/>
- 2026-08-25 [negative] META: Mosseri denies suppressing child-safety risks; Instagram design chief admits data was cut from 2023 safety deck - Instagram head Adam Mosseri testified in Oakland that he neither encouraged nor knew of any policy to keep negative information from the public. Earlier, product-design director Francesco Fogu acknowledged that data showing teens encountered 1.5x more bullying, suicide, hate, nudity and violent content than adults was removed from a 2023 safety presentation, and that 'take a break' adoption would suffer without being on by default. The 29-state trial runs through September. <https://www.staradvertiser.com/2026/08/25/breaking-news/instagram-head-mosseri-testifies-at-meta-child-social-media-addiction-trial/>
- 2026-08-25 [positive] AMZN: Amazon's US apparel share nearly doubles to 17.8% since 2019 as Walmart slips to 6.0% - PYMNTS Intelligence analysis of company revenue against Census clothing sales puts Amazon at 17.8% of US clothing spend in 2026 versus 8.5% in 2019, with apparel sales of $109.4B in 2025 and $55.5B in H1 2026. Walmart's share fell from 7.3% to 6.0% over the same period. <https://www.pymnts.com/news/retail/2026/amazon-clothing-share-doubles-as-walmart-loses-ground/>
- 2026-08-26 [neutral] GOOGL: Google launches Ask Gemini in Google Chat for Workspace customers - From Aug 26 Workspace users can query Gmail, Drive and Calendar, draft updates and generate images from inside Google Chat. Promotional higher usage limits run through Oct 1, 2026, after which usage caps apply. Incremental product depth for Workspace rather than a revenue event. <https://workspaceupdates.googleblog.com/2026/08/ask-gemini-in-chat.html>
- 2026-08-25 [neutral] NVDA: Street looks for $92.2B revenue and a ~$104B Q3 guide as Rubin hand-off and AI financing take centre stage - Consensus for Wednesday's print is $92.18B revenue (nearly double y/y) with Q3 guidance expected near $104.2B (+82.8%) and ~75% gross margin; Morgan Stanley estimates Rubin could add almost $9B of Q3 sales. Nvidia's ~$500B customer financing and $105B OpenAI Ohio lease guarantee are drawing circular-demand scrutiny. <https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/nvidia-earnings-put-rubin-growth-110847344.html>
- 2026-08-25 [neutral] MRVL: Marvell Q2 preview: Q3 guide vs $3.03B consensus is the swing factor, not the $2.71B Q2 number - Q2 FY27 consensus sits at $2.708B revenue (0.3% above the guide midpoint) and ~$0.93 EPS; the street wants Q3 guidance above $3.03B (+13% q/q) and higher FY27/FY28 targets. Google's 58.97M warrants at $206.58 vest one tranche per $500M of custom-product purchases, 240 tranches through FY2033. <https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/stocks/us-stocks/262130808-marvell-mrvl-q2-earnings-q3-guidance-data-center-google-warrant-tradingkey>
- 2026-08-24 [positive] MU: Gartner lifts 2026 chip forecast to $1.6T with memory at $837B; DRAM revenue seen +247% - Gartner now expects semiconductor revenue to rise 92% to $1.6T in 2026 and ~$1.9T in 2027, with memory at $837B this year and above $1T next; DRAM +247% and NAND +372%. It says new fab capacity is not expected to significantly change the supply-demand balance through 2027. <https://www.heise.de/en/news/Gartner-Semiconductor-market-to-reach-1-6-trillion-in-revenue-in-2026-11424312.html>
- 2026-08-25 [positive] ANTHROPIC: Claude Cowork now shares memory with Claude chat - Anthropic merged the memory system across Claude chat and Cowork, so project context given in one carries into the other. On by default for Free, Pro and Max on web, desktop and mobile; sensitive topics excluded unless users opt in. Same day, Anthropic put up $5M in grants for open-source wellbeing evaluations (applications close Sep 21). <https://techcrunch.com/2026/08/25/claude-cowork-finally-remembers-what-you-told-the-app-in-chat/>
- 2026-08-24 [negative] CURSOR: Musk tells Cursor staff xAI has 'fallen behind' OpenAI and Anthropic - At an Aug 15 all-hands after the $60B SpaceX deal closed, Musk reportedly said he was not 'used to losing' and that xAI trailed rivals. 45 Cursor employees have left since April, though hiring continues; xAI's own staff reportedly preferred Claude over Grok. <https://gizmodo.com/not-used-to-losing-apparent-elon-musk-pep-talk-to-his-cursor-staff-paints-sad-picture-2000802606>
- 2026-08-25 [positive] HOOD: Robinhood closes up 8.2% at $112.09 on crypto rebound and prediction-market note - Bitcoin briefly crossed $81,000 and a Bernstein note pointing to ~$240B of 2026 prediction-market volume (and $1T by 2030) pulled attention to Robinhood, now Kalshi's anchor partner with 1,000+ contracts listed. Volume 9.9M shares, roughly 3x normal. <https://www.cryptotimes.io/2026/08/25/robinhood-stock-hood-rises-6-as-prediction-markets-draw-wall-street/>
- 2026-08-25 [positive] 1211.HK: BYD to launch Sealion 08 flagship SUV on Sep 2, priced 230-280k yuan - Mid-to-large SUV in EV (up to 115 kWh, 900 km CLTC) and PHEV (275-300 km electric-only) forms, second-gen Blade battery and flash charging. The Sealion line did 227,415 units Jan-Jul, 10.2% of group sales. Shares closed HK$93.60 (+0.9%) ahead of Friday's interim results. <https://cnevpost.com/2026/08/25/byd-to-launch-sealion-08-sept-2-2026/>
- 2026-08-25 [positive] AAPL: Apple Maps ads now showing to users in the US and Canada - Apple confirmed ads began appearing in Maps search results and a new Suggested Places section over the last few days, with delivery ramping to all users in the coming weeks. Ads carry a blue 'Ad' badge; Apple says location and ad data are not tied to the Apple Account. Adds a new services line alongside the M6 Mac mini / M5 Ultra Mac Studio pre-orders (ship Sep 22). <https://9to5mac.com/2026/08/25/apple-maps-launches-ads-on-iphone-heres-whats-new/>
- 2026-08-25 [positive] SPOT: Spotify bundles fandom features into Premium; shares +2.7% to $552.57 - SongDNA credits explorer, a weekly Concerts Near You playlist, lyric translation, music videos in the US/Canada, and 'Reserved' (two pre-sale tour tickets held for an artist's top fans, Premium 18+ US/Canada). No new paid tier announced. Spotify says 100M+ subscribers have used SongDNA. <https://newsroom.spotify.com/2026-08-25/fandom-features-updates/>
- 2026-08-25 [negative] SKHY: SK hynix wage talks restart from scratch; new union wants cash-only bonus - The tentative deal (6.3% raise, 60% of bonus in shares) failed by 25 votes of 15,045 cast, 93.8% turnout. Korea JoongAng Daily says labor and management return to the table after two months of talks, while a new integrated union formed Aug 13 with 3,400+ members is demanding the old cash-only formula. No strike call yet. <https://www.koreajoongangdaily.com/business/massive-bonus-narrow-loss-sk-hynix-union-vote-sends-wage-deal-back-to-square-one/12843228>
- 2026-08-26 [neutral] GEV: GE Vernova launches 170 kV SF6-free switchgear at CIGRE Paris - The F35g 170 kV gas-insulated switchgear uses g3 instead of SF6 and completes GE Vernova's SF6-free GIS range from 72.5 to 420 kV. Built in Europe and available for order; no customer orders or volumes disclosed. Product news, not a guidance event. <https://www.gevernova.com/news/press-releases/ge-vernova-marks-10-years-sf6-free-innovation-launch-new-170-kv-gas-insulated>

## Notes

**holdings A**: Checked stockanalysis.com quotes for all 8 tickers (close + after-hours as of ~6:20pm EDT Aug 25). After-hours moves were all within 0.5%; no group-A ticker had material overnight news. AXOS, ENPH, FIGR, LDI: nothing new since the 20:49 UTC run (searches on stockanalysis, tipranks, businesswire, globenewswire). BABA: Hong Kong had not opened for Wednesday at run time (06:30 HKT); the placement closes Aug 26; Wan3.0 video model launch dates to Aug 24 so was excluded. GOOGL: Rezolv AI database selection (TheFly) and Ask Gemini in Chat are minor; no Gemini Pro release yet. META: US News/Reuters Mosseri article timed out; used Star-Advertiser's Reuters syndication instead. Reuters.com blocks the crawler so no direct Reuters sourcing. AMZN Forbes 'Mamdani' last-mile piece and GeekWire delivery-station story predate the 20:00 UTC cutoff and overlap the Tetromino item already in status.json. Macro next: July PCE and Q2 GDP revision at 22:30 AEST tonight, Nvidia after the US close (Thu ~6:30am AEST).

**holdings B**: Prices from stockanalysis.com for all six public tickers (close Aug 25 4pm ET; after hours ~6:25pm ET): NVDA 213.05/214.17 AH, MRVL 240.38/241.52 AH, MU 932.97/935.00 AH, NFLX 82.23/82.16 AH, RKT 14.30/14.30 AH, TSM 417.41/417.76 AH. TSMC Taipei (2330) last close NT$2,400 +1.05% on Aug 25; Taipei and Tokyo had not opened at 22:30 UTC so no Wednesday Asia moves yet. NVDA consensus cross-checked across Yahoo/Reuters-style preview ($92.18B rev, Q3 guide $104.2B), moomoo ($92.05B, EPS $2.061) and Motley Fool/Kiplinger snippets ($92.2B, EPS $2.09). Could not open Investopedia (blocked), MarketWatch (blocked; snippet says 5.4% implied move), Kiplinger live blog (truncated), Gartner.com (403; used heise mirror), Seeking Alpha Rubin preview (403). Seeking Alpha options note (Aug 25 8:23am ET) showed +/-6.1% implied, calls clustered at $220-230, $200 puts active. Yahoo 'smallest swing in three years' piece was dated Feb 2026 and was discarded. No new Stripe or OpenAI valuation events found; multiples unchanged at 2.27 and 5.43. Nothing new for NFLX or RKT beyond items already in status.json. Gartner item is dated Aug 24 but was not on the site, so included.

**loves**: Checked Aug 25-26 UTC. Prices are Aug 25 closes (US 4pm EDT; BYD HKEX Aug 25 close, HK not yet open for Aug 26). Anthropic: only newsroom item was $5M wellbeing-eval grants; TechCrunch had the Cowork memory merge. Anthropic Risk Report and SpaceX-Cursor close (Aug 14) are old, not included. Cursor: no product news in last 24h; Gizmodo pep-talk piece (Aug 24) is the only fresh item. Cloudflare: quiet, closed $277.58 (-1.0%); only a blog-platform migration post (Aug 24) and routine datacenter maintenance. Goldman HOOD PT raise to $123 surfaced but date unverifiable (MarketScreener 403), so omitted. Apple: M5 Ultra/M6 already covered; Gurman says iPhone event date to be announced this week. Spotify: no analyst action found for the +2.7% move. BYD: no pre-results leak found; H1 figures on ad-hoc-news look unreliable, ignored.

**watchlist**: Run at 22:30 UTC Tue: Tokyo (10:00 AEST), Hong Kong (11:30 AEST) and Xetra (17:00 AEST) had not opened, so Wednesday moves for Keyence, CATL and Siemens Energy are not yet available; only Tradegate after-hours exists for ENR. No new news in the window for ALAB, AVGO, BE, CATL, MELI, NET, SE, Keyence, ASML or TER; text kept verbatim, prices re-verified against Aug 25 closes (after-hours moves all within 0.4%). Candidates considered and rejected: Vertiv VRT ($255.75, FY26 organic growth guided 30-32% and adj EPS +60%, Q3 guide +34-36% organic, 33% below its high after a 26% drop on the Q2 revenue miss; strongest runner-up but overlaps the BE/GEV/ENR AI-power exposure and its next catalyst is late October); Arista ANET (Q2 +38%, FY guide +40%, but $241B cap at ~60x trailing, 11% from its high, no near-term catalyst); Nebius NBIS ($5.75B convert closed, $37.5B RPO incl. $12B Meta deal, Goldman $328 target, but three customers >10% each, heavy dilution and capex; too speculative for the list); Snowflake (reports Aug 26, ~25% growth, software multiple and no moat edge over the existing Internet names); Symbotic (22% growth, Walmart SymMicro rollout delayed to 2028); Nextracker (guidance nudged up, insider selling, growth in the teens); Fluence (guidance slashed, downgrades); Coupang (10% constant-currency growth, net loss); Rockwell (guidance raised but single-digit growth). Credo is the only add: >100% growth, GAAP profitable, four 10%+ hyperscaler customers, Sep 1 print; it does overlap ALAB on connectivity, which is why conviction starts at medium. The Spotify removal is a list-fit call, not a thesis break.

**indicators/calendar**: INDICATORS. Silicon Data index listing on Aug 26 AEST still reads H100 $2.68 (0.0% 7d), A100 $1.61 (+2.4%), B200 $5.66 (+0.2%), MI300X $2.65 (+0.4%), identical to the Aug 25 reading, so h100_rental and b200_rental are omitted (the H100 product page still shows the stale $2.53 FAQ figure). No new CoreWeave loan/bond/CDS print in the last 24h; Nebius $5B converts (priced Aug 19, settled Aug 24, source nebius.com and SEC 6-K) added as the fresh neocloud financing datapoint; trend set to flat because CoreWeave spreads have had no new observation since Aug 3. TrendForce Aug 25 release (memory 68% of CSP capex 2027) verified on trendforce.com; DRAMeXchange DDR5 16Gb spot $54.17 flat on Aug 25 verified on TrendForce spot page. ERCOT: Aug 20 PUCT presentation figures via Energy News Beat (Aug 21) — a fresher source than the Aug 3 directive, not a 24h reading; turbine backlog figures unchanged. Nvidia reports after today's US close (Aug 27 ~06:00 AEST), so nvidia_dc, capex_vs_backlog, hopper_residual and dc_cost_per_gw are unchanged and omitted. CALENDAR. Verified existing: BEA schedule confirms Aug 26 08:30 ET GDP 2nd estimate + July PCE and Sep 3 trade; Fed August page confirms Warsh keynote Aug 28 10:00 ET and Bowman fireside 12:45 ET; Fed September page shows Beige Book Sep 2 14:00 ET and no scheduled Board speeches Sep 1-16 (FOMC Sep 15-16 with SEP, outside window); BLS confirms Aug jobs report Sep 4 08:30 ET; Marvell IR calendar confirms Aug 27 13:45 PT call; Broadcom IR confirms Sep 2 after close, 14:00 PT call; BYD board meeting Aug 28 to approve interims confirmed (HKEX notice via TipRanks). Added 5 events (ABS capex, Credo, HPE, Ciena, Apple TBC). Outside the window, for the next run: China Aug CPI/PPI Sep 10; US Aug CPI Sep 11 08:30 ET; Oracle Q1 FY27 Sep 14 after close; RBA joint appearance by Bullock/Hauser/Hunter/Kent/Jones Sep 14 12:30 AEST (RBA Coming Up page, format unconfirmed); FOMC Sep 15-16; Meta Connect Sep 23-24 (Menlo Park); Micron Q4 FY26 Sep 29 after close; OpenAI DevDay Sep 29 SF; RBA decision Sep 29 14:30 AEST (meeting Sep 28-29); Marvell Investor Day Oct 6. Already happened: Made by Google Aug 12, Alibaba June-quarter results Aug 20, CATL interims Jul 24. Could not confirm: Apple invite (Gurman says this week, Sep 9 most likely; time TBC), any 2026 Communacopia/Citi TMT/Deutsche Bank (Aug 26-27) slots for NVDA, HOOD, SPOT, MU, ALAB, TER, GEV, BE (IR pages timed out or list nothing; Teradyne explicitly lists no upcoming events); Barclays CEO Energy-Power Conference Sep 8-10 participants; RBA calendar page returned 403 so the Sep 14 item is from a search snippet only. No removals needed.

**macro**: Opened: asktraders (Intuit), 247wallst (Zoom), ca.investing.com (Semtech), investing.com S&P/Nasdaq/Nikkei futures pages (delayed quotes shortly after the 18:00 ET reopen), tradingeconomics (10y 4.63%, WTI $81.03, AUD 0.7163), coingecko (BTC $78,634), stockhead Rise and Shine (ASX futures +0.3% at 7am, ASX close 9,165), investinglive AU CPI preview and Asia calendar, tradingkey PCE preview (core 0.2% m/m, 3.3% y/y), tradingkey and rexshares Nvidia previews, globeandmail/Zacks Salesforce preview, finimize and investing.com Asian chip pieces, aljazeera and foxnews Iran pages, alibabagroup placement notice, torbrooknews and yahoo Fed-pricing pieces (30% Sept hike odds as of Aug 17-22). Unavailable: CNBC live blog and CNBC Iran pages (403), CNN Iran live (451), techtimes (403), IG preview (403), Morningstar PCE preview (403), tipranks (403), Benzinga (403), Kiplinger live blog truncated. Not found: Kospi/HSI futures, fresh RBA speaker comments, any export-control or CXMT news dated Aug 25-26, a named vessel for the reported Hormuz tanker attack. Fed September pricing figures are from Aug 17-22 sources, not overnight.

Nothing here is financial advice. Holdings and opinions are my own; the "agent" sections are written by an automated research skill and may be wrong. Built 2026-08-26 02:53 UTC.