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# Research run 2026-09-15T03:07 UTC

## What changed

- Fed decision 4am AEST Thursday: ~90% odds of a 25bp hike to 3.75-4.00%, the first since 2023; 10-year touched 5.01% Monday.
- AI names sold off Monday after Amodei, Altman and Musk urged slowing AI development: SOX -5.9%, NVDA $210.96; Anthropic IPO still on for mid-October.
- Meta +16% since Aug 27 to $665.60 on the Muse agent; Google avoids ad-tech breakup; RKT cut to watch with mortgages at 7.17%.
- Brent near $107 after Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia; ECB hiked to 2.50%; an RBA hike is ~74% priced for Sep 29.
- Broadcom AI revenue +221% but the Q4 guide was sold; Credo -37% since Aug 27; Bloom joins the S&P 500 Sep 21.
- Nvidia confirmed the $12.9B Hugging Face deal; TSMC's August revenue rose a record 53.3%; Micron reports FQ4 Sep 30 (bullish Goldman preview).

## Market summary

The S&P 500 closed Monday at 7,620 (-0.5%), about 1.4% below Aug 27, and the Fed is near-certain to hike at 4am AEST Thursday: futures price roughly 90-93% odds of 25bp to 3.75-4.00%, the first hike since 2023, versus 34% priced on Aug 27. The repricing came in three steps: Warsh used Jackson Hole (Aug 28) to demand disinflation 'clearly and at sufficient speed', August payrolls (Sep 4) beat at +162k with unemployment steady at 4.1%, and August CPI (Sep 11) printed 0.4% m/m and 3.4% y/y with core 0.3% m/m, above forecasts. The 10-year touched 5.01% Monday, highest since October 2023 (4.68% on Aug 27), the ECB hiked 25bp to 2.50% on Sep 10, and Brent is near $107 with WTI $102.7 after Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and a pipeline strike Riyadh says could disrupt up to 4% of global supply. Chips took the extra hit Monday: SOX -5.9% and NVDA -3.4% to $210.96 after Amodei, Altman and Musk called for slowing AI development, though the S&P ended well off session lows and NVDA ticked up after hours. Asia is mixed at Tuesday lunchtime: Nikkei +0.9%, Kospi +0.3%, Taiex -0.1%, Hang Seng -0.3%, ASX 200 -0.9% at 8,669; China's August industrial output beat at +5.2% y/y while retail sales missed at +0.4%. Ahead in AEST: US retail sales 10:30pm Wednesday, FOMC decision 4am Thursday with Warsh's press conference ~4:30am, BOJ Friday (25bp to 1.25% expected), then the RBA on Sep 29 with a hike about 74% priced (cash rate 4.35%; NAB calls September, CBA and Westpac November).

## Holdings

- AMZN: hold @ $253.54 - $253.54 Monday close, -1.3% over the 18-day gap, lagging GOOGL and META. Material items were partnerships rather than numbers: a multi-generational Qualcomm collaboration on AI data-center infrastructure (Sep 8), an AWS Saudi Arabia region coming by December 2026, Graviton5 instances GA, and OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra landing on Bedrock; Sep 14 it paused cargo carrier 21 Air after a fatal Miami crash. Nothing changes the AWS thesis either way; hold.
- AXOS: hold @ $93.75 - $93.75 Monday close, -2.8% since Aug 27 with no company news beyond a D.A. Davidson Gold Trophy List mention (Sep 2). Quietest name in the book; next catalyst is the fiscal Q1 print in late October. Hold.
- BABA: watch @ $109.23 - ADR $109.23 Monday, -6.0% since Aug 27; 9988.HK closed Monday at HK$105.90, below the HK$112.70 placing price, before bouncing +2.4% to HK$108.40 mid-session Tuesday. New overhangs: Anthropic alleges Alibaba ran 151M Claude exchanges through 3,500 accounts (May-July) to distill its models - China rejected the claim - and US securities class actions run to an Oct 5 lead-plaintiff deadline. Qwen3.8-Max was open-sourced Sep 7 with near-frontier benchmark claims, so the AI thesis is alive, but the post-placement base never formed; keep watching.
- ENPH: watch @ $36.66 - $36.66 Monday close, -5.4% since Aug 27, and no further policy follow-through after the August orders. The new story is a pivot: the IQ solid-state transformer for AI data centers, with power modules now built in Texas (Sep 8) and a showcase at AI Infra Summit (Sep 14). Data-center optionality is interesting but unproven and the residential guide is still below last year; stay on watch.
- FIGR: hold @ $35.65 - $35.65 Monday close, -4.9% since Aug 27; the slide bottomed at $33.19 on Sep 2 and the tape has since stabilised ($38.27 on Sep 8, $35.65 now). Kiavi closed Sep 1 and a Sep 10 Sierra partnership puts AI agents on abandoned home-equity applications; no lockup expiries, offerings or notable insider filings appeared in the window. Hold.
- GOOGL: add @ $349.39 - $349.39 Monday close, +3.0% since Aug 27, finishing +3.2% Monday on a planned New Mexico AI data center. The big event: Judge Brinkema declined to break up the ad-tech business on Sep 2, ordering behavioral remedies only (bid transparency, no first/last look) - the last major US structural overhang is gone. Still add.
- LDI: trim @ $0.8333 - $0.8333 Monday close, -13.8% since Aug 27 - it never regained $1 and is now four-plus weeks under the NYSE threshold with no reverse-split announcement yet. The Sep 14 HomeSmart marketing agreement (25,000 agents) does not move the cure math, and Wednesday's FOMC cuts both ways for a mortgage lender. Keep trimming into any strength.
- META: hold @ $665.6 - $665.60 Monday close, +15.8% since Aug 27, the book's big winner. Muse, its personal AI agent, launched Sep 8 and hit No. 2 on the US App Store, though early downloads (~83k US iOS by day two) are modest against past launches; Goldman reiterated Buy and a $0.525 quarterly dividend was declared Sep 10. Settlement follow-through continues (now framed as an $18B multistate deal) with Connect Sep 23-24 the next catalyst; after a 16% run the news is priced, hold.
- MRVL: hold @ $218.82 - Closed Monday at $218.82 (-7.3%), roughly back to the $222.62 post-print after-hours level: the market digested the Aug 27 print well, recovering to ~$236 by Friday before Monday's AI-wide selloff took it all back. TipRanks found no company-specific negative in the drop - it was the Amodei slow-down call - and consensus target is $298 with Piper Sandler freshly bullish. Marvell presents AI data-center connectivity at the AI Infra Summit Sep 15-17; hold.
- MU: hold @ $924.03 - Closed Monday at $924.03 (-5.3%), about 1% below the Aug 27 level, with memory names at the centre of the AI selloff. Goldman's FQ4 preview (Sep 14) expects another strong quarter: revenue $51.9B vs $50.4B consensus, EPS $32.54, 87.3% gross margin, though DRAM price momentum is now 'more measured'; Goldman holds a $1,100 target vs Street $1,564. Earnings Sep 30; supply is still contracted out years via take-or-pay deals. Hold into the print.
- NFLX: add @ $80.32 - Closed Monday at $80.32 (+3.8%), back above the Aug 27 level, after Warner Bros. Discovery went to Paramount Skydance with Netflix out of the bidding - removing a capital-discipline overhang - and Evercore raised its target to $110. GTA VI follow-through was real: the preview became Netflix's most-watched program at 31.1M views, #1 in 87 of 93 countries, with ~100k US sign-ups in the six-hour exclusivity window. Watch items: Florida's children's-data lawsuit and the wound-down Skydance Animation pact; consensus ~$103, still an add.
- NVDA: hold @ $210.96 - Closed Monday at $210.96 (-3.4%), about 7.5% below the $228 post-print level, hit by the Amodei/Musk/Altman slow-down calls; after-hours +0.5% and Trump called Huang onstage at the All-In Summit calling data-center opposition a hoax. In the gap: the $12.9B Hugging Face acquisition was confirmed Sep 3, Rubin momentum built (SemiAnalysis measured Vera Rubin NVL72 at 67x better inference performance per dollar, Sep 14), and reports say Nvidia is deprioritising China as Huawei fills the gap. Nothing broken - the drawdown is sentiment, not numbers; hold through Wednesday's FOMC.
- OPENAI: hold - Altman ruled out a 2026 IPO on Sep 12, calling this an 'ill-advised moment' and AI extinction risk 'unacceptable' - the same safety turn (with Amodei and Musk) that sold off AI stocks Monday. Funding is unaffected: SoftBank got an upsized $11.9B loan on Sep 14 to support its ~$10B October commitment, and bankers are already pitching post-IPO credit ratings. DevDay is Sep 29. No new round, tender or secondary mark in the gap; hold. Marked at 5.43x cost: latest valuation ~$852B (2026-08) vs ~$157B at entry (https://techcrunch.com/2026/08/10/openai-reportedly-completed-a-7-billion-employee-tender-offer/).
- RKT: watch @ $13.44 - Closed Monday at $13.44 (+2.0% on the day) but down ~6% since Aug 27. The 30-year fixed hit 7.17% Monday, a new high since January 2025 - the refi wave is dead, and Wednesday's FOMC carries live hike risk with oil near $105. Only company news in the gap was naming ex-Meta VP Alessio Sanfilippo as Redfin CEO. Rate path now works against the thesis; downgrade to watch until the Fed decision clears.
- STRIPE: hold - Busy gap: Stripe and Advent abandoned their $50B+ pursuit of PayPal on Aug 28 (PayPal fell 16% premarket), while the ~$7B OpenRouter acquisition - Stripe's push into AI model routing and usage-based AI billing - was finalized, and a Bank of Ireland digital-transformation deal landed Sep 14. Walking away from PayPal and buying the AI billing layer instead is the right kind of discipline. No new round, tender or secondary in the gap; hold. Marked at 2.27x cost: latest valuation ~$159B (2026-02) vs ~$70B at entry (https://techcrunch.com/2026/02/24/stripes-valuation-soars-74-to-159-billion/).
- TSM: add @ $418.01 - ADR closed Monday at $418.01 (-3.5%), about 2% below the Aug 27 level, purely on the AI-sentiment selloff. August revenue was the fact that matters: a record NT$514.8B, +53.3% y/y, the first month ever above NT$500B and the fourth straight record. Taipei is shrugging off Monday - 2330 is NT$2,395 (+0.6%) mid-session Tuesday, ~5.5% under its NT$2,535 high. Fundamentals accelerating into a sentiment dip; add.

## Watchlist

- ALAB:US Astera Labs - accumulate (medium) - Astera Labs sells the connectivity silicon (PCIe/CXL retimers, Scorpio fabric switches, Ethernet) that ties GPUs and XPUs together inside AI racks; Q2 2026 revenue was $392M (+104% YoY, +27% QoQ) with eight straight EPS beats, and Scorpio switches become the largest product line in Q3, a quarter early. The 18-day gap was rough on the tape, not the story: shares spiked ~11% on Sep 4 on S&P 500 inclusion bets, missed out when Bloom Energy, Illumina and Everpure were picked instead, presented at Citi's Global TMT conference on Sep 9 reiterating Scorpio X as the major revenue driver, then fell 11.7% on Sep 14 to $257.04 in the market-wide AI-slowdown selloff after Amodei and Altman called for pacing frontier development. Now -15% vs Aug 27 and ~48% below the $498 YTD high with no company-specific negative in the gap; Q3 (Scorpio becoming the biggest line) is the proof point.
- AVGO:US Broadcom - accumulate (medium) - Broadcom is the leading custom AI accelerator (XPU) and AI networking supplier to hyperscalers, and the Sep 2 print validated the franchise: Q3 FY26 revenue $29.6B (+86% YoY), AI semiconductor revenue $16.7B (+221% YoY, +54% QoQ), non-GAAP EPS $3.32 (+96%), with a Q4 guide of ~$34.8B total revenue (+93%) at ~66% non-GAAP operating margin. The market sold the guide anyway - the ~$21.7B Q4 AI revenue figure was read as light against buyside hopes and shares fell over 6% after hours - and the stock then lost another 4.8% to $344.72 in the Sep 14 AI-slowdown selloff, leaving it -6% vs Aug 27 and ~28% below the June high. Hock Tan went on CNBC on Sep 14 to say AI revenue targets have not changed, and the VMware Explore announcements (Private AI Cloud, AI Factory, AgentMinder) keep the software annuity compounding. Path to >$100B of AI revenue in 2027 restated; the bar, not the business, is the problem.
- CRDO:US Credo Technology - accumulate (medium) - Credo makes the active electrical cables (AECs), optical DSPs and retimers that link GPUs and switches inside AI clusters, and its ZeroFlap AECs are the default in-rack copper link for hyperscalers. The Sep 1 Q1 FY27 print was a record - revenue $479.0M (+114.7% YoY, +9.6% QoQ), GAAP net income $129.4M, non-GAAP EPS $1.20, non-GAAP gross margin 68.0% - and the Q2 guide of $525-535M implies over 85% YoY growth. But the margin guide (non-GAAP 67-69%, GAAP 62.9-64.9%, below Q1) crystallised the feared reaction: the stock fell ~20% on Sep 2 as analysts cut targets, kept sliding, and lost another 7.9% on Sep 14 in the AI-slowdown selloff to close at $150.09. That is -37% vs Aug 27, ~51% below the 52-week high and roughly 33% down over three months, while consensus sits near $281 and the demand base (four hyperscalers each over 10% of revenue) is unchanged. We read this as a valuation and margin-mix reset, not a demand break - the most oversold name on the list.
- SKHY:US SK hynix - accumulate (medium) - SK hynix supplies more than half of the world's HBM (about 58% of HBM revenue share) and posted record Q2 2026 results: revenue KRW 79.3T (+257% YoY) and operating income KRW 60.5T (+557%) at a 76% operating margin, with HBM4 mass shipments ramping in H2 and a KRW 40T buyback running through November. It was the strongest name on the list through the gap: the ADR closed Sep 14 at $175.63, +7.7% vs Aug 27 even after falling 7.6% that day in the AI-slowdown selloff, because the memory shortage keeps tightening - DRAM inventories are reported below 10 days and BofA raised its target to $268 from $250 on Sep 14. The two overhangs are resolving: the company tabled a revised wage deal on Sep 11 lifting the cash share of performance bonuses from 40% to 50%, with a company-wide union vote Sep 15-16; and the Indiana packaging site is under way. Samsung and SK hynix also rejected Kepco's $19B power-prepayment proposal, a sign of bargaining power, and Solidigm pre-IPO reports drew a 'nothing determined' response.
- 3750:HK CATL - buy (high) - CATL is the world's largest battery maker and the clear leader in grid storage: H1 2026 revenue rose 55% to RMB 277B and net profit 42% to RMB 43.3B, with energy storage revenue up 88% (nearly 20% of sales), and Jan-Jul 2026 global EV battery share was 39.9% vs BYD's 14.7%. The gap was all sentiment, no fundamentals: the shares ground down to a six-month low of HK$546.5 on Sep 11 'amid a storm of negative factors' and closed HK$549.00 on Sep 14 (~$70, -11% vs Aug 27) as BYD's weak H1 (profit -20%) soured China EV sentiment, Washington attacked Ford's CATL licensing tie-up, and Li Auto said it will shift its lineup to in-house batteries. Against that, Goldman initiated at Buy with a HK$946 target, Q2 profit rose on surging storage demand even with soft China EV volumes, and the stock now trades at ~19x earnings - the cheapest quality name on this list for the AI-era storage buildout.
- BE:US Bloom Energy - accumulate (medium) - Bloom's solid-oxide fuel cells are a mainstream on-site power solution for AI data centers that cannot wait for grid interconnects: Q2 2026 revenue jumped 166% to $1.07B with a 33% gross margin, full-year guidance is $3.9-4.2B revenue, and the 2.8 GW Oracle agreement plus Nebius Vineland show hyperscalers and neoclouds in the customer base. The big gap event: S&P Dow Jones announced on Sep 4 that Bloom joins the S&P 500 effective Sep 21 (with Illumina and Everpure), triggering an ~11% jump and index-fund buying; Mizuho raised its target to $351 from $242 on stronger pricing and demand. The stock closed Sep 14 at $257.05 - down 6.8% in the AI-slowdown selloff but still +16% vs Aug 27 and the best performer on the list over the gap. Next earnings moved up to Oct 27.
- ENR:DE Siemens Energy - accumulate (medium) - Siemens Energy is Europe's answer to GE Vernova: gas turbines, grid technologies and wind, with record fiscal Q3 orders (EUR 17.9B, book-to-bill 1.57), a EUR 162B backlog and Grid Technologies' backlog at EUR 51B on US data-center transformer demand. The Transformation of Industry separation is progressing: the unit is being readied under a new standalone identity reported as 'Omterra', private equity is circling the EUR 5.7B-revenue business (Goldman running the process; earlier reports pegged the valuation above EUR 10B), and the sell side remains lined up behind the plan with consensus near EUR 196. The stock had held up until Monday: Xetra close EUR 132.66 on Sep 14, -8.0% on the day as European markets slid on the AI-safety warnings and Fed rate-hike bets, leaving it ~$153 in USD terms, -13% vs Aug 27. Nothing in the gap changed the sum-of-parts case; the AI-power complex simply de-rated together.
- GEV:US GE Vernova - accumulate (high) - GE Vernova is the key bottleneck supplier of gas turbines and grid equipment for the AI power buildout: Q2 2026 orders rose 88% organically to $24.2B, total backlog ~$176B, gas turbine backlog 116 GW (targeting 125 GW under contract by year-end), and H1 free cash flow of $5.1B already exceeded all of 2025. Gap news was constructive: on Sep 3 it committed with Studsvik, Samsung C&T and DS Investment Partners to advance a four-unit, ~1.2 GW BWRX-300 small-modular-reactor project in Sweden (first unit mid-2030s), extending the nuclear option, and Morgan Stanley ($1,350) and Guggenheim ($1,450) raised targets. But the stock was hit hard by the AI-slowdown selloff, -8.6% on Sep 14 to $874.76 (-8% vs Aug 27, ~27% below the high), and GLJ Research initiated at Sell with a $470 target calling it 'priced for perfection'. The Oct 21 order number is the referee between those views; capacity is still scaling from 20 GW/yr to 30 GW in 2030 with pricing power rising.
- HOOD:US Robinhood Markets - accumulate (medium) - Robinhood posted record Q2 2026 revenue of $1.31B (+32% YoY) with a 57% adjusted EBITDA margin, and the gap showed the prediction-markets leg maturing into real infrastructure: on Sep 8 it selected OG.com as its CFTC-regulated infrastructure partner for event contracts, will add yes/no contracts from Crypto.com's prediction business, and holds equity stakes in both partners (OG.com at a recent $20B valuation). Morgan Stanley upgraded to Overweight citing prediction markets and trading activity increasingly independent of crypto, the firm won an underwriting role on the Oura IPO, and Tenev presented at Goldman's Communacopia on Sep 9. The stock closed Sep 14 at $114.33, +1.6% on a day the AI complex fell apart - a useful demonstration that it is not an AI-capex proxy - and is +3% vs Aug 27 with consensus near $127.
- MELI:US MercadoLibre - accumulate (medium) - MercadoLibre is Latin America's dominant e-commerce, logistics and fintech platform: Q2 2026 revenue grew 49.8% to $10.17B (30th straight quarter above 30%), unique buyers rose to 89M, and the Mercado Pago credit book grew 75% to $16.4B. The gap was quiet and constructive: it issued $1B of 10-year 5.850% senior unsecured notes on Sep 10 with investment-grade ratings (BBB-/Baa3) and demand from over 100 institutional investors - cheap dry powder for the logistics/credit push - and presented at Goldman's Communacopia on Sep 8. The stock sat out the AI drama entirely (+0.15% on Sep 14, closing $1,900.24, -2% vs Aug 27) and remains ~25% below its 52-week high with consensus near $2,265; earnings moved to Oct 28. One of the few names on the list whose quarter does not hinge on AI capex sentiment.
- NET:US Cloudflare - buy (high) - Cloudflare's growth is re-accelerating on AI: Q2 2026 revenue rose 36% to $696M, net retention hit 120%, and its edge network is the natural control point for agentic and bot traffic. The gap stacked up proof: Adaptive Intelligence, a real-time detection engine that 'learns from trillions of daily requests', launched Aug 31; Cursor Cloud Agents now run on Cloudflare Sandboxes in customer-controlled environments (Sep 2); and on Sep 3 it partnered with OpenAI to launch an AI-driven vulnerability discovery and remediation service built on GPT-5.6 Cyber models. The payoff came on the market's worst AI day: while chips fell 5-13% on Sep 14, cybersecurity rallied and NET rose 7.8% to $330.36, pennies from its 52-week high of $334.60 and +9% vs Aug 27. Cloudflare earns from AI-agent traffic whichever lab wins - and benefits when AI anxiety pushes budgets toward security. FedRAMP High opens the federal market.
- SE:US Sea Limited - buy (high) - Sea grew Q2 2026 revenue 48% to $7.8B with all three engines firing: Shopee GMV +28% to $38.3B (ad revenue +70%), Monee fintech revenue +59% with an $11.1B loan book at 1.0% NPLs, and Garena still growing; management reaffirmed 25% GMV growth and $1B+ of adjusted EBITDA for the year. The gap brought no bad news, just drift: the stock slid to $108.68 (-7% vs Aug 27) as EM Internet stayed out of favor, then rose 2.3% on Sep 14 while the AI complex sold off - defensive money is starting to notice. Arete upgraded to Buy, Benchmark's $175 target stands, consensus sits near $157 (+45%), and Shopee launched a turbo delivery service in Brazil to take the fight to Amazon and MELI. Still ~44% below the 52-week high: the widest value gap on the list for a business compounding this fast.
- 6861:JP Keyence Corp - buy (high) - Keyence is the picks-and-shovels supplier of machine vision, sensors and measurement for factory automation and the emerging humanoid/robotics supply chain; fiscal Q1 sales rose 33% to JPY 347B and net income 51% to JPY 139B with overseas sales +39%, operating margins above 50% and a 95% equity ratio. No company news over the gap, but the sell side got louder: Citi upgraded to Buy with a JPY 95,000 target, joining Goldman (JPY 100,000, APAC Conviction List), with consensus near JPY 97,900. The shares were dragged down ~7% with Japanese tech as the AI-slowdown call hit Tokyo (SoftBank -13% on Sep 14) and traded around JPY 76,270 on Tuesday morning Sep 15 (~$493, -5% vs Aug 27 in USD), now ~22% below the record. A quality compounder getting cheaper on someone else's news; October results are the next catalyst.
- ASML:US ASML Holding - buy (high) - ASML is the sole supplier of EUV lithography, guiding 2026 to EUR 43-45B of sales at 54-56% gross margin, with EUV capacity for 2027 essentially fully booked and significant 2028 orders in hand. The gap added to the capacity story - the company is examining ways to build more than 110 EUV tools in 2028, is expanding in Eindhoven, and deepened advanced-node work with Samsung and Intel - but the ADR was caught square in the Sep 14 AI-slowdown selloff, falling 7.3% to $1,575.15 (-9% vs Aug 27) as equipment names took the worst of the 5.2% semiconductor-index drop. The multi-year booking visibility is exactly the defense against a sentiment-driven pause: even if hyperscalers breathe, 2027-28 EUV slots are contracted. Consensus target ~$2,160; Oct 14 results and bookings are the next data point.
- TER:US Teradyne - accumulate (medium) - Teradyne is the leading supplier of automated test equipment for AI compute and HBM silicon and, via Universal Robots and MiR, the largest Western pure-play in collaborative robots; Q2 2026 revenue more than doubled to $1.33B with AI-related demand ~70% of revenue, and it joined the Nasdaq-100 in the gap. The fundamentals and the tape diverged violently: on the same Sep 14 that Universal Robots unveiled Gen 7 - its new physical-AI platform at IMTS Chicago with the PolyScope X OS, a CB7 controller packing 40% more compute in a 30% smaller footprint, and new g-Series arms - the stock fell 13.3% to $329.20, the worst one-day hit on the list, as the AI-slowdown call crushed high-multiple test names. Now -11% vs Aug 27 and ~34% below the high with consensus near $446. Nothing company-specific broke; 70% AI exposure simply cuts both ways, and the late-October print is the next chance for numbers to reassert themselves.

## Bellwether changes

- h100_rental: $2.67/hr index (+0.4% 7d); 1-yr contract $2.35 (Mar-26) vs $1.70 (Oct-25); spot ~$4/bullish -> $2.66/hr index (+1.1% 7d); 1-yr contract $2.35 (Mar-26) vs $1.70 (Oct-25); RunPod H100 SXM secure raised to $3.49/bullish
- b200_rental: $5.50-7.00/hr at neoclouds (RunPod B200 $5.98-6.79, Lambda $6.69-6.99); RunPod B300 $6.94-7.89; Silicon Data B200 index $5.65; ~$5 in Jan-26/bullish -> Silicon Data B200 index $5.72 (+0.4% 7d) vs $5.65 Aug 28; RunPod B200 $5.98/$6.79, B300 $6.94/$7.89, Lambda B200 $6.69-6.99 all unchanged; B200/H100 ratio ~2.15x/bullish
- hopper_residual: 2020-vintage GPUs contracted to 2029 'at full freight'; MSFT servers 2-6 yrs, Meta 5.5 yrs (no 2026 stretch)/bullish -> 2020-vintage GPUs contracted to 2029 'at full freight'; A100 index $1.58/hr, above the $1.50 trigger; MSFT 2-6 yr and Meta 5.5 yr server lives unchanged/bullish
- memory_prices: +13-18% QoQ 3Q26 (after +93-98% 1Q26, +58-63% 2Q26), 4Q26 guided +3-8%; 2027 HBM contract seen +70-140% (TrendForce); memory = 68% of major CSP capex in 2027 (47% in 2026); Nvidia supply commitments $279B (+134% q/q, mostly memory); DDR5 16Gb spot $53.93 (-0.1% d/d)/bullish -> 2Q26 DRAM industry revenue $154.7B +59.5% QoQ; 3Q26 contracts +13-18%, 4Q26 guided +3-8%; DDR5 16Gb spot $54.33 (Sep 14) vs $53.93 (Aug 27); high-capacity NOR seen +90-110% in 2H26/bullish
- power_bottleneck: 474 GW ERCOT requests across 1,800+ projects (~427 GW data centers) vs ~193 GW installed; GE Vernova turbine backlog 116 GW; ~5-7 yr lead times/bullish -> 474 GW ERCOT queue (~427 GW data centers) vs ~193 GW installed; first Batch Zero audit outputs: Galaxy 1.63 GW approved + 2.6 GW conditional, Cipher 3.2 GW conditional; new-DC interconnection pause holds/bullish
- capex_vs_backlog: 2026 capex ≈ $1.0T (102% of cloud revenue); backlog ≈ $2.4T (MSFT $678B +84%, ORCL $638B +363%, GOOG Cloud $514B, AWS $496B); AWS Nvidia GPU commitment 3M+ (1M 2026 + 2M 2027-28); Nvidia supply commitments $279B/neutral -> Oracle RPO $664B (+$209B y/y, only +$26B q/q) incl >$30B new AI contracts, funded by a $20B stock sale; Broadcom AI rev $16.7B +221%, Q4 guide $34.8B +93%; 2026 capex ~= $1.0T vs ~$2.4T backlog/neutral
- neocloud_credit: CoreWeave Jul-26 $2.6B loan at SOFR+550, 10.44% YTM; CDS ~855bp (Jul 29); Nebius $5.75B converts closed Aug 24 (0.50% 2030 / 4.50% 2034, greenshoe fully exercised); Nvidia: ~25% of FY28 revenue from labs it finances, ~12 GW OpenAI + ~2 GW second-lab credit support/bearish -> No new CoreWeave debt print since the Aug 3 SOFR+550 flex; interest expense $640M/qtr (2.4x y/y); AI-related debt issuance near $500B; CoreWeave pays ~SOFR+550 vs Nebius ~+250 - a hardening two-tier market/bearish
- nvidia_dc: DC rev $89.0B +117% YoY, +18% QoQ (Q2 FY27); GAAP and non-GAAP GM 75.0%; Q3 guide $108B +/-2% at 74% GM, Q4 GM trough 71-72%; FY28 prelim +~70%, supply-constrained through FY28; supply commitments $279B (+134% q/q); DSO 60 days (was 45); ~25% of FY28 revenue from financed labs; no China DC compute in outlook/bullish -> DC rev $89.0B +117% YoY (Q2 FY27), GM 75.0%, Q3 guide $108B at 74%; 10-Q: one direct customer >=10% of Q2 revenue (16%) vs two a year ago (23%+16%); five customers = 70% of receivables; supply commitments $279B/bullish

## Calendar changes

- added 2026-09-16 FED FOMC decision, Summary of Economic Projections and Chair Warsh press conference (meeting Sep 15-16)
- added 2026-09-30 MU Micron fiscal Q4 2026 results (date per Aug 26 company notice; one day past this window, kept for visibility)
- added 2026-09-29 RBA RBA Monetary Policy Board decision (meeting Sep 28-29)
- added 2026-09-23 META Meta Connect 2026: new smart glasses teased, Llama and AI roadmap
- added 2026-09-18 BOJ Bank of Japan monetary policy decision
- added 2026-09-16 MACRO US retail sales, August
- added 2026-09-18 MACRO Triple witching: quarterly index futures/options and stock-option expiry plus S&P rebalance
- added 2026-09-30 MACRO August PCE inflation + Q2 GDP third estimate (both moved to Sep 30 per BEA schedule; one day past this window, kept for visibility)
- added 2026-09-24 COST Costco Q4 FY2026 results (expected date - typically last Thursday of September; not yet confirmed by Costco IR)
- added 2026-09-17 MACRO US jobless claims, August housing starts, and NAR August pending home sales
- added 2026-09-25 MACRO US durable goods orders (August) and University of Michigan sentiment, final September
- added 2026-09-24 MACRO US jobless claims and August new home sales
- added 2026-09-22 MACRO US Treasury 2-year (Sep 22), 5-year (Sep 23) and 7-year (Sep 24) note auctions - standard month-end cycle, amounts announced Sep 17

## New news (30)

- 2026-08-28 [negative] MACRO: Warsh's Jackson Hole speech puts hikes on the table - In his first Jackson Hole keynote, 'In Our Time', Warsh said inflation above 2% is the Fed's 'predominant focus' and he must see underlying inflation moving to target 'clearly and at sufficient speed', while advocating a quieter Fed with less forward guidance. <https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/warsh20260828a.htm>
- 2026-09-04 [neutral] MACRO: August payrolls +162k, well above forecasts; unemployment steady at 4.1% - Payrolls rose 162,000 versus a 31,000 average over the prior 12 months, with June and July revised up a combined 55k and wages +0.3% m/m (+3.1% y/y). The reacceleration removed the labour-market case against a hike. <https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm>
- 2026-09-11 [negative] MACRO: August CPI 0.4% m/m, 3.4% y/y; core 0.3% beats forecasts - Gasoline +3.9% on the month drove over a third of the increase (energy +16.3% y/y) and core rose a faster-than-forecast 0.3% m/m. The print locked in Wednesday's hike, with futures moving to ~90% within days. <https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm>
- 2026-09-14 [negative] MACRO: Chips slide as Amodei, Altman and Musk call for slowing AI development - After Amodei's Saturday essay warning AI agents could cause hundreds of billions in damage within 6-12 months, backed by Altman (who shelved an OpenAI IPO this year) and Musk, the SOX fell 5.9%, NVDA -3.4%, AMD -4.4%, MU -5.3%, ASML -6% and SoftBank -10%. <https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/ailinked-asian-stocks-slump-after-top-lab-ceos-call-for-slowing-downs-technologys-development-4898809>
- 2026-09-14 [negative] MACRO: 10-year yield touches 5.01%, highest since October 2023, as oil tops $100 - Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and a strike on the east-west pipeline pushed Brent near $107 and WTI above $102, reviving inflation fears; heavy AI-related corporate debt issuance and fiscal worries added to the move. The 30-year sits at 5.35%. <https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/us-10year-yields-reach-5-highest-since-2023-4899925>
- 2026-09-03 [positive] NVDA: Nvidia confirms $12.9B acquisition of Hugging Face - The previously reported deal is now official, one of Nvidia's largest acquisitions ever, putting the dominant GPU maker in control of the main open-model distribution platform. <https://techcrunch.com/2026/09/03/nvidia-confirms-it-will-buy-hugging-face-for-12-9-billion/>
- 2026-09-12 [negative] NVDA: Amodei, Altman and Musk call for slowing AI development; AI stocks sell off Monday - Anthropic's CEO proposed slowing the pace of capability gains on control-loss and misuse risk, echoed by Altman and Musk; Monday's reaction: NVDA -3.4%, MRVL -7.3%, MU -5.3%, TSM ADR -3.5% while cybersecurity names rallied. <https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/12/anthropics-amodei-proposes-plan-to-slow-the-pace-of-advancing-ai-capabilities.html>
- 2026-09-12 [neutral] OPENAI: Altman rules out an OpenAI IPO this year - Altman said an IPO now would come at an ill-advised moment given AI safety concerns, calling extinction risk unacceptable; SoftBank's funding support continues with an upsized $11.9B loan reported Sep 14. <https://www.politico.com/news/2026/09/12/sam-altman-openai-ipo-01073565>
- 2026-08-28 [neutral] STRIPE: Advent and Stripe abandon $50B+ pursuit of PayPal - The consortium walked away after months of talks (PayPal fell 16% premarket); Stripe is instead closing its ~$7B OpenRouter acquisition, a push into AI model routing and usage-based billing. <https://www.pymnts.com/news/acquiring/2026/advent-stripe-abandon-50-billion-pursuit-of-paypal/>
- 2026-09-10 [positive] TSM: TSMC August revenue a record NT$514.8B, up 53.3% - First month ever above NT$500B and the fourth straight monthly record, confirming AI chip demand ran hot through August; Taipei shares sit ~5% under their all-time high. <https://www.marketbeat.com/articles/tsmc-revenue-jumps-53-in-august-signaling-strong-ai-chip-demand/>
- 2026-09-01 [positive] NFLX: GTA VI preview becomes Netflix's most-watched program at 31.1M views - The 27-minute exclusive ranked #1 in 87 of 93 tracked countries and beat every Netflix original that week; a later report credited it with 100k+ US sign-ups in its six-hour exclusivity window. <https://www.tipranks.com/news/take-twos-gta-vi-gameplay-video-tops-netflix-with-31-1-million-views>
- 2026-09-14 [positive] MU: Goldman previews Micron FQ4 (Sep 30): 'another strong quarter' - Goldman models revenue $51.9B vs $50.4B consensus, EPS $32.54 and 87.3% gross margin on continued supply constraints, but notes DRAM price momentum is now more measured; it holds a $1,100 target vs Street $1,564. <https://www.tipranks.com/news/micron-stock-mu-forecast-ahead-of-q4-earnings-goldman-sachs-expects-another-strong-quarter>
- 2026-09-14 [negative] RKT: 30-year fixed mortgage hits 7.17%, highest since January 2025 - Mortgage News Daily's average rose to a new long-term high ahead of Wednesday's FOMC, where a hike is a live risk; refinance economics are dead at these levels. <https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage-rates>
- 2026-09-10 [positive] META: Muse AI agent hits No. 2 on the US App Store two days after launch - Meta launched Muse, a personal AI agent that can act across apps (email, payments, travel), on Sep 8; by Sep 10 it ranked No. 2 on iOS despite modest absolute downloads (~83k US iOS). The stock re-rated ~16% over the gap on agent optimism. <https://techcrunch.com/2026/09/10/metas-ai-agent-muse-is-now-the-no-2-app-in-the-us/>
- 2026-09-02 [positive] GOOGL: Judge Brinkema spares Google an ad-tech breakup, orders behavioral remedies - The court rejected the DOJ's demand to divest AdX and DFP, instead ordering real-time bid transparency, an end to Unified Pricing Rules and first/last-look privileges. Third straight US structural remedy Google has avoided; the last big domestic overhang is gone. <https://www.adexchanger.com/platforms/google-wont-have-to-break-up-its-ad-tech-business-judge-brinkema-rules/>
- 2026-09-10 [negative] BABA: Anthropic details Alibaba distillation campaign: 151M Claude exchanges via 3,500 accounts - Anthropic alleges Alibaba harvested Claude's reasoning, coding and agentic outputs at up to ~3M exchanges a day (May-July) to train its own models; Beijing rejected the allegations Sep 12. Adds legal and US-China friction risk while class actions (Oct 5 lead-plaintiff deadline) already circle. <https://techcrunch.com/2026/09/10/anthropic-details-distillation-campaigns-from-alibaba-moonshot-ai-and-deepseek/>
- 2026-09-14 [positive] GOOGL: GOOGL +3.2% Monday on plans for a New Mexico AI data center - Alphabet closed at $349.39 after announcing an AI data-center build in New Mexico, alongside Waymo opening Las Vegas service and a Tokyo plan for 2027. <https://www.tipranks.com/news/google-stock-googl-pops-3-as-company-plans-to-build-an-ai-data-center-in-new-mexico>
- 2026-09-08 [positive] AMZN: Qualcomm and Amazon strike multi-generational AI data-center infrastructure deal - Qualcomm announced a multi-generational product collaboration with Amazon to build next-generation AI data-center infrastructure, diversifying AWS's silicon supply beyond Nvidia and its own Trainium line. <https://www.qualcomm.com/news/releases/2026/09/qualcomm-announces-multi-generational-product-collaboration-with>
- 2026-09-08 [positive] ENPH: Enphase pushes IQ solid-state transformer for AI data centers, built in Texas - Enphase said power modules for its IQ solid-state transformer are now being built in Texas and showcased the product at AI Infra Summit on Sep 14 - a pivot of its power-electronics IP toward data-center demand while residential stays soft. <https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/09/08/3357594/20176/en/enphase-advances-iq-solid-state-transformer-development-for-ai-data-centers-with-power-modules-now-being-built-in-texas.html>
- 2026-09-01 [positive] FIGR: Figure completes Kiavi acquisition - Figure closed its acquisition of Kiavi, expanding its blockchain-native capital marketplace; it followed on Sep 10 with a Sierra deal putting AI agents on abandoned home-equity applications. The August slide bottomed at $33.19 on Sep 2. <https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/09/01/3354097/0/en/figure-completes-acquisition-of-kiavi.html>
- 2026-09-14 [neutral] LDI: HomeSmart taps loanDepot for lending; stock still at $0.83, under NYSE's $1 - loanDepot signed a marketing services agreement with HomeSmart, the largest 100%-commission brokerage (~25,000 agents). It does not address the listing problem: LDI closed Monday at $0.8333, four-plus weeks below $1 with no reverse-split announcement. <https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260914240712/en/HomeSmart-Taps-loanDepot-to-Provide-Innovative-Lending-Solutions/>
- 2026-09-02 [negative] AVGO: Broadcom Q3: revenue $29.6B +86%, AI revenue $16.7B +221% - but the Q4 guide was sold - Beat on top and bottom (non-GAAP EPS $3.32, +96%); Q4 guided to ~$34.8B (+93%) with AI ~$21.7B, read as light against buyside hopes - shares fell over 6% after hours and closed Sep 14 at $344.72 (-6% vs Aug 27). Hock Tan on CNBC Sep 14: AI revenue targets haven't changed. <https://www.stocktitan.net/news/AVGO/broadcom-inc-announces-third-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-financial-whx14hf9tuuz.html>
- 2026-09-01 [negative] CRDO: Credo's record Q1 ($479M, +115% YoY) met margin worries; stock down ~37% since Aug 27 - GAAP net income $129.4M, non-GAAP EPS $1.20, gross margin 68%; Q2 guide $525-535M implies >85% YoY growth but the softer margin guide triggered a ~20% one-day drop and analyst cuts, compounded by the Sep 14 AI selloff. Closed $150.09; consensus still ~$281. Demand base unchanged - a valuation reset, not a demand break. <https://www.stocktitan.net/news/CRDO/credo-technology-group-holding-ltd-reports-first-quarter-of-fiscal-0aj6bc146rcj.html>
- 2026-09-04 [positive] BE: Bloom Energy joins the S&P 500 effective Sep 21 - S&P DJI adds Bloom, Illumina and Everpure at the September rebalance. The stock jumped ~11% on inclusion bets and Mizuho raised its target to $351 from $242; BE closed Sep 14 at $257.05, +16% vs Aug 27 - the list's best performer over the gap. Astera Labs, the other rumoured candidate, missed out. <https://www.stocktitan.net/news/P/bloom-energy-illumina-and-everpure-set-to-join-s-p-500-others-to-a0i4hthbnifg.html>
- 2026-09-03 [positive] NET: Cloudflare partners with OpenAI on AI-driven vulnerability remediation; Cursor agents move onto its Sandboxes - New Vulnerability Discovery and Remediation service built on GPT-5.6 Cyber models (Sep 3), a day after Cursor Cloud Agents began running on Cloudflare Sandboxes; Adaptive Intelligence bot defense launched Aug 31. On Sep 14 NET rose 7.8% to $330.36 - near its 52-week high - as security rallied while AI hardware sold off. <https://www.stocktitan.net/news/NET/cloudflare-partners-with-open-ai-daybreak-models-to-redefine-9nod8pkl3bnc.html>
- 2026-09-11 [positive] SKHY: SK hynix revises wage deal - cash share of bonuses up to 50%, union vote Sep 15-16 - The revised offer answers the stock-heavy bonus objection that sank the first deal by 25 votes; members vote company-wide Sep 15-16. With DRAM inventories reported under 10 days and BofA lifting its target to $268, the ADR is +7.7% since Aug 27 despite Monday's 7.6% selloff hit. A yes vote removes the last company-specific gate. <https://www.humanresourcesonline.net/sk-hynix-revises-wage-deal-boosts-cash-share-of-performance-bonuses-to-50>
- 2026-08-28 [negative] 1211.HK: BYD H1: revenue RMB 344.8B, net profit -20% on the China price war; Q2 profit +30%, first rise in a year - Overseas revenue topped 50% of the total for the first time and exports grew ~70%, but domestic demand and competition dragged H1 profit down ~20% and Q2's RMB 8.2B (+30% YoY) missed estimates; shares slipped on the print. Management is leaning on exports: 2.5M overseas sales targeted for 2027 and European truck production announced Sep 14. 1211.HK around HK$80 vs HK$96 in late August. <https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/byd-shares-drop-as-h1-profit-falls-on-tough-chinese-market-4882152>
- 2026-09-09 [neutral] AAPL: Apple unveils iPhone Duo, its first foldable, at $1,999 - Ternus's first event as CEO - 7.6-inch inner / 5.4-inch outer displays, A20 Pro chip, titanium, preorders Oct 16 and availability Oct 23; iPhone 18 Pro, Watch Series 12 with a new Health Sensing System and AirPods 5 rounded out the event. Some analysts see the Duo reaching 10% of iPhone sales; KeyBanc cautioned on expectations and iPhone 18 delivery lead times are tracking below iPhone 17's. AAPL steady near records, $333.08 on Sep 14. <https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2026/09/apple-unveils-iphone-duo/>
- 2026-09-14 [positive] ANTHROPIC: Anthropic IPO still on for 2026: Nasdaq chosen, Nvidia in talks as anchor investor - Axios reports the IPO remains on track for 2026 despite the safety debate Amodei himself ignited; Reuters reported Nvidia in talks to anchor what could be the largest IPO in history (Sep 11), Business Insider says Nasdaq won the listing (Sep 13), and the timeline has shifted to mid-October. OpenAI, by contrast, shelved its IPO this year. <https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/anthropic-still-plans-2026-ipo-despite-ai-safety-concerns--axios-4899936>
- 2026-08-31 [negative] CURSOR: OpenAI cuts off Cursor's model access after the SpaceX acquisition closes - With Anysphere's $60B all-stock sale to SpaceX completed in mid-August, OpenAI severed Cursor's access to its frontier models - a reminder that application-layer tools depend on model providers' goodwill. Cursor has since leaned on alternatives (Claude, open models), and its agents now run on Cloudflare Sandboxes per the Sep 2 partnership. <https://bdtechtalks.com/2026/09/04/openai-cursor-ban/>

## Notes

Catch-up run after an 18-day gap (last run 2026-08-27). **holdings A**: Checked all 8 tickers for Monday Sep 14 US closes via stockanalysis.com quote pages, then Google News RSS for discovery and direct article fetches for citations (TechCrunch, AdExchanger, TipRanks, Qualcomm IR, GlobeNewswire, BusinessWire). WebSearch was unavailable (session budget already exhausted), so everything ran through WebFetch; Reuters/NYT versions of the ad-tech ruling were paywalled and Google News redirect links would not resolve, so AdExchanger was cited instead. Specific checks: LDI did NOT regain $1 - $0.8333 Monday, no reverse split announced; FIGR slide ended at $33.19 on Sep 2 with no lockup/offering filings in the window (IPO lockup expired Mar 2026); META's Hatch turned out to be 'Muse' (launched Sep 8), settlement now framed as an $18B multistate deal (TikTok rejected Meta's settlement ads), Connect Sep 23-24 ahead; BABA is below the HK$112.70 placing price with Tuesday's 9988.HK session +2.4% to HK$108.40 mid-session, Qwen3.8-Max open-sourced Sep 7, and securities class actions carry an Oct 5 lead-plaintiff deadline; GOOGL also completed the ~$1.5B Mechanize acquisition (Sep 11) and opened Claude to all engineers; ENPH policy front was quiet after the August orders. Quiet names: AXOS (only a D.A. Davidson list mention Sep 2). Market context: Sep 14 Reuters noted AI-slowdown warnings from major lab CEOs weighing on tech; FOMC decision Wednesday 14:00 ET pending. Prices are Monday Sep 14 closes; % changes measured against the Aug 27 levels in status.json.

**holdings B**: Checked all 8 tickers over the Aug 27 - Sep 14 gap. WebSearch budget was exhausted (200/200) before this run, so everything came via WebFetch: stockanalysis.com for Monday closes (NVDA 210.96, MRVL 218.82, MU 924.03, NFLX 80.32, RKT 13.44, TSM 418.01) and TPE:2330 (NT$2,395 +0.6% Tuesday mid-session), Google News RSS for discovery, then real articles (TechCrunch, TipRanks, PYMNTS, MarketBeat, Politico via Techmeme, Mortgage News Daily). Dominant event: Sep 12-14 AI-safety turn (Amodei/Altman/Musk) drove Monday's AI selloff; FOMC Wednesday with live hike risk, oil ~$105. NVDA specifics: Hugging Face confirmed Sep 3, Rubin perf data strong (SemiAnalysis Sep 14), China reportedly deprioritised, Trump backed Huang at All-In Monday. MRVL had rallied to ~$236 by Friday post-print before the macro drop; AI Infra Summit Sep 15-17. MU earnings confirmed Sep 30 (not Sep 29). NFLX: WBD went to Paramount with Netflix out (stock rallied, Evercore to $110 - invezz article URL found but returned 403, so cited in reason only); Florida kids-data lawsuit is a new watch item. STRIPE: no new round/tender - kept 2.27x; OpenRouter ~$7B deal and PayPal walkaway are strategy news, not marks. OPENAI: no new valuation - kept 5.43x; IPO ruled out for 2026, SoftBank $11.9B upsized loan Sep 14, DevDay Sep 29. Blocked: Guardian, CNBC direct fetches (403), DuckDuckGo (CAPTCHA), Deadline (tollbit paywall), Seeking Alpha/Bloomberg not attempted (paywalls). Freddie Mac PMMS not separately checked; used MND 7.17% daily read.

**watchlist/loves**: 18-day catch-up. What moved: the Sep 12-14 AI-slowdown episode dominated - Amodei's essay plus Altman/Musk backing hit every semi on the list Monday (TER -13.3%, ALAB -11.7%, CRDO -7.9%, SKHY -7.6%, ASML -7.3%, GEV -8.6%) while NET +7.8% (security safe-haven plus OpenAI/Cursor partnerships) and HOOD/MELI/SE were untouched. Gap scoreboard vs Aug 27: BE +16% (S&P 500 add), NET +9%, SKHY +7.7%, HOOD +3%, MELI -2%, Keyence -5%, AVGO -6% (beat, guide sold), SE -7%, GEV -8%, ASML -9%, TER -10.5%, CATL -11% (six-month low: BYD read-across, Ford/Washington clash, Li Auto in-housing), ENR -13% (AI-safety selloff; Omterra spin-off progressing, PE circling), CRDO -37% (record Q1 but margin guide triggered a de-rate). Quiet: MELI ($1B 5.85% notes), SE, Keyence (Citi upgrade), HOOD (OG.com/Crypto.com prediction-markets deal, MS upgrade). No removals - no thesis broke; CRDO is a margin/valuation reset with demand intact, kept accumulate/medium. Zero adds: nothing clearly beats the weakest entry after the selloff improved entries across the board; Vertiv remains the strongest runner-up. Loves: Anthropic IPO on track (Nasdaq, Nvidia anchor talks, mid-October timeline) even as Amodei's safety essay tanked the AI trade; Cursor lost OpenAI model access post-SpaceX deal; Apple's Ternus-era debut (iPhone Duo foldable $1,999, Oct 23) landed with AAPL steady at $333; Spotify $556.31, +5.8% Monday on no clear catalyst (300M Premium subs, $1.5B buyback bump); BYD H1 profit -20% but Q2 +30%, overseas >50% of revenue first time. Could not confirm: exact Keyence Sep 14 Tokyo close (used Tue Sep 15 mid-session JPY 76,270 at USD/JPY ~155); BYD's absolute H1 net profit figure (headlines: revenue RMB 344.8B, profit -20% YoY, ~RMB 3.2B lower); Broadcom's $21.7B Q4 AI guide is from press coverage, not the release; SK hynix union vote result (in progress Sep 15-16); Reuters pages were unfetchable, so Reuters items are cited via investing.com. FX used: EURUSD 1.154, USDJPY 154.8, USDHKD 7.84. WebSearch budget was exhausted this session; all research done via WebFetch (stockanalysis, stocktitan, investing.com, Google News RSS discovery).

**indicators/calendar**: Verified on-page: Silicon Data indices (H100 $2.66, B200 $5.72, A100 $1.58, H200 $3.28, new H100-hyperscaler $7.20); RunPod pricing page (updated Sep 13; H100 SXM secure raised $3.29->$3.49, everything else unchanged); Lambda pricing unchanged; DRAMeXchange DDR5 16Gb $54.33 (Sep 14); TrendForce 2Q26 DRAM revenue release (Sep 7, $154.73B +59.5% QoQ) and NOR flash release (Sep 14); Nvidia Q2 FY27 10-Q from SEC EDGAR (filed Aug 26: one direct customer 16% of Q2 revenue, H1 three at 16/15/13%, five customers 70% of receivables); Broadcom Q3 FY26 via StockTitan ($29.6B rev, $16.7B AI +221%, Q4 guide $34.8B); Oracle Q1 FY27 via StockTitan (RPO $664B, +$209B y/y, $20B ATM); Galaxy Batch Zero release (Sep 8, 1.63 GW base + 2.6 GW studied load); CoreWeave IR feed shows no new financing Aug 28-Sep 15. Calendar verified: FOMC Sep 15-16 w/ SEP (fomccalendars); BOJ MPM Sep 17-18; RBA board Sep 28-29; retail sales Sep 16, housing starts Sep 17, new home sales Sep 24, durables Sep 25 (TradingEconomics); UMich final Sep 25 10:00 ET (prelim 47.8 released Sep 11); NAR 2026 schedule shows NO existing-home-sales release in the window (next EHS is Sep-data on Oct 13) but August pending home sales Sep 17. Date corrections vs the brief: Micron FQ4 is Sep 30 not Sep 29 (company notice via scanx, Aug 26), and BEA has BOTH Q2 GDP third estimate and August PCE on Sep 30 - all one day outside the window; I kept MU and PCE/GDP entries flagged 'kept for visibility' and skipped AU monthly CPI (Sep 30) per instruction. Could NOT confirm: the reported GSAM $6.6B GPU-backed OpenAI deal (no trace in Google News RSS under several phrasings - flagged as unverified in the neocloud note); OpenAI DevDay 2026 main-event date (only a Bengaluru satellite Oct 16 - omitted); Costco Q4 date (entered as TBC); Conference Board consumer confidence date (omitted); Alibaba Apsara 2026 dates (omitted); FedEx checked and reports Oct 28, outside window. dc_cost_per_gw omitted from items: no new verified $/GW datapoint in the gap (Microsoft's 38 GW-by-2032 plan had no cost attached; it's noted under power_bottleneck/capex instead). WebSearch budget was exhausted at session start - all discovery ran through Google News RSS + direct fetches; Google News redirect links do not resolve via WebFetch, so where the original publisher URL was unreachable I sourced from primary/IR/EDGAR or StockTitan pages and attributed press coverage by publisher+date in notes without URLs. known_urls.txt does not exist in the repo (noted; source URLs were checked against indicators.json instead). No calendar removals needed: all superseded events pre-date Sep 15 and auto-prune.

**macro**: WebSearch budget was exhausted; everything sourced via WebFetch. Sources: BLS releases (empsit, cpi), federalreserve.gov (Warsh speech text and 2026 speeches index), investing.com (economy and stock-market news indexes, FOMC preview 'Fed's table is set for a rate hike', 10Y-at-5% piece, Asia wrap, dollar wrap, China August data, SOX/VIX/Asia index quote pages, bitcoin), stockanalysis.com (NVDA), Google News RSS for discovery only (CNBC/Reuters/Bloomberg/Morningstar headlines on jobs, CPI, Warsh; Guardian/FT on ECB; Canstar/Reuters on RBA bank calls). Level caveats: NDX field carries the Nasdaq Composite (26,186.41 Monday close), not NDX-100; US10Y 5.01% Monday high, ~4.99% late; WTI/Asia levels are Tuesday ~12:40 AEST mid-session, US levels are Monday closes; SOX close -5.86% per quote page (article cited -5.2% intraday); VIX 17.10 (+1.26) Monday close; DXY 99.55; gold $4,292; Dow 52,421 (-0.29%); USD/JPY 154.72. Other resolved items: US shutdown averted ~Sep 1 with a CR funding government to Dec 11; China FAI -7.2% YTD; BOJ expected to hike 25bp to 1.25% Friday. Unavailable/unverified: retail sales consensus number, exact SPX % vs Aug 27 close (used status.json 7,731), AU August monthly CPI not yet released (July CPI 3.2-3.3% was the last print, per Aug 27 status), no VIX/DXY fields in the requested levels schema so left in notes.

Nothing here is financial advice. Holdings and opinions are my own; the "agent" sections are written by an automated research skill and may be wrong. Built 2026-09-15 03:07 UTC.