# Research run 2026-09-28T00:03 UTC ## What changed - Fed hiked 25bp to 3.75-4.00% on Sep 16; US 10-year near 5.2%, highest since 2007. - AI holdings rebounded since Sep 15: MRVL +20%, MU +17%, META +13%, TSM +8%, NVDA +7%. - Rate-sensitive holdings fell: LDI -20%, ENPH -12%, NFLX -11%, FIGR -11%; 30-yr mortgage back above 7%. - Netflix cut from add to hold after Wells Fargo and HSBC downgrades on engagement; earnings Oct 20. - Watchlist cut to 15: CRDO, Siemens Energy, CATL out; SK hynix up to buy after union passed wage deal. - This week: RBA 2:30pm Tue AEST, hike to 4.60% expected; Micron results Thu 6:30am AEST. ## Market summary The Fed raised rates 0.25 pt to 3.75-4.00% on Wed Sep 16 (Thu 4am AEST), its first hike since 2023, and 16 of 18 officials see another by year end. The US 10-year yield then climbed to about 5.1-5.2%, the highest since 2007, and futures price roughly a 70% chance of another Fed hike in October. Stocks still rose for the week to Fri Sep 25 (Sat morning AEST): S&P 500 7,743 (+1.2%), Nasdaq 27,069 (+2.1%), and the SOX chip index 12,669 (+6.3%, +13% since Sep 15) as chip stocks recovered from the 'slow down AI' selloff. Brent settled at $104.32 (under +1% for the week) and WTI at $92.41 (about -8%): hopes of a US-Iran truce offset Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia. The ASX 200 closed Friday at 8,665 (-0.4%), its fourth weekly loss, and futures pointed to a flat open this morning. Markets price a 25 bp RBA hike to 4.60% at 2:30pm AEST Tue Sep 29 as near certain. ## Holdings - AMZN: hold - AXOS: hold - BABA: watch - ENPH: watch - FIGR: hold - GOOGL: add - LDI: trim - META: hold - MRVL: hold - MU: hold - NFLX: hold - NVDA: hold - OPENAI: hold - RKT: watch - STRIPE: hold - TSM: add ## Watchlist changes - removed CRDO:US - Duplicates ALAB and AVGO as a third AI-connectivity name, with ~90% of revenue from 10 customers and a falling margin guide. The 40% rebound since Sep 14 ($150 to $210.97) is a fair exit point. - SKHY:US accumulate/medium -> buy/high - removed 3750:HK - Pricing-power thesis is weakening: Li Auto and Xiaomi are moving orders to Sunwoda, CALB and in-house cells, and the shares hit a one-year low (HK$489.40, -11% since Sep 14). BYD, added yesterday, already covers China EV exposure. - BE:US accumulate/medium -> watch/medium - removed ENR:DE - Overlaps GEV on gas turbines and grid, and has no signed deal for the Transformation of Industry separation until at least Nov 11. GEV is the cleaner way to own this theme. - NET:US buy/high -> accumulate/high ## Watchlist - ALAB:US Astera Labs - accumulate (medium) - Connectivity silicon (retimers, Scorpio switches) inside AI racks; Q2 revenue $392M, +104% YoY. Up 42% since Sep 14 to $364.62, including +12% on Sep 21, with no negative company news. Scorpio X becoming the largest product line in Q3 is the proof point. - AVGO:US Broadcom - accumulate (medium) - Top custom AI chip (XPU) and AI networking supplier; Q3 FY26 AI revenue $16.7B, +221% YoY, Q4 guide ~$34.8B total revenue. Flat since Sep 14 at $352.81 while other chips rebounded; consensus target $532 (+51%). - SKHY:US SK hynix - buy (high) - Holds ~58% of HBM revenue share; Q2 operating income was KRW 60.5T at a 76% margin, and the stock trades on 9.5x earnings. The strike risk is gone: the union approved the revised 50/50 cash-stock bonus deal on Sep 16 with 57.1% of votes. Reuters reports Solidigm is weighing a 2027 IPO at up to $150B, against a ~$9B purchase price. - BE:US Bloom Energy - watch (medium) - On-site fuel cells for AI data centres; Q2 revenue $1.07B, +166%, with 2026 guidance of $3.9-4.2B. Joined the S&P 500 on Sep 21 and closed at $288.70 (+12% since Sep 14). On Sep 25 it said Oracle still backs the 2.4 GW Project Jupiter contract. - GEV:US GE Vernova - accumulate (high) - Bottleneck supplier of gas turbines and grid gear for AI power; Q2 orders $24.2B (+88% organic), backlog ~$176B. Up 9% since Sep 14 to $957.63; the CEO told Morgan Stanley's Laguna conference that gas capacity additions grow 50% this year. Consensus target $1,237. - HOOD:US Robinhood Markets - accumulate (medium) - Q2 revenue $1.31B (+32%) at a 57% adjusted EBITDA margin; prediction markets are scaling through equity stakes in OG.com and Crypto.com. $119.40, +4% since Sep 14, consensus $130. - MELI:US MercadoLibre - accumulate (medium) - LatAm's leading e-commerce and fintech platform; Q2 revenue $10.17B (+50%), the 30th straight quarter above 30%. Down 8% since Sep 14 to $1,752.61, against a $2,272 consensus target (+30%). - NET:US Cloudflare - accumulate (high) - Edge network that controls bot and AI-agent traffic; Q2 revenue $696M (+36%), 120% net retention. Hit a record $353.04 on Sep 22 and closed at $349.02, +78% YTD. - SE:US Sea Limited - buy (high) - Q2 revenue $7.8B (+48%): Shopee GMV +28%, Monee loan book $11.1B at 1.0% NPLs. Down 8% since Sep 14 to $99.55 on no company news. Consensus target $157 (+58%), the widest gap on the list. - 1211:HK BYD - accumulate (medium) - Exports drive growth: August overseas sales +134.5% YoY, ~44% of H1 volume, with local truck production in Europe planned. HK$78.10, near the 52-week low; consensus HK$125.70 (+61%). - 6861:JP Keyence Corp - buy (high) - Machine vision and sensors for factory automation and robotics; fiscal Q1 sales +33%, net income +51%, operating margin above 50%. JPY 79,600 (+4% since Sep 15); Citi JPY 95,000, consensus JPY 97,867 (+23%). - 7203:JP Toyota Motor - watch (medium) - Hybrid leader as EV adoption slows; demand for the new RAV4 hybrid exceeds supply. JPY 2,989.5, ~8.6x earnings, consensus JPY 3,699 (+24%). - ASML:US ASML Holding - buy (high) - Sole EUV supplier; 2026 guide EUR 43-45B at 54-56% gross margin, 2027 EUV capacity essentially sold out. Up 11% since Sep 14 to $1,743.94, with factory throughput now being tested for 110+ tools a year. Consensus $2,116 (+21%). - TER:US Teradyne - accumulate (medium) - Test equipment for AI and HBM chips (~70% of revenue) plus Universal Robots cobots; Q2 revenue $1.33B, more than double. Up 21% since Sep 14 to $398.38, with a microLED optical test platform (Iris 100) launched Sep 20. Consensus $446 (+12%). - TSLA:US Tesla - watch (medium) - Car demand is falling while the valuation rests on robotaxi, storage and Optimus. Semi deliveries started this week, and the Roadster is unveiled Oct 1. Track it, don't chase it. ## Bellwether changes - h100_rental: $2.66/hr index (+1.1% 7d); 1-yr contract $2.35 (Mar-26) vs $1.70 (Oct-25); RunPod H100 SXM secure raised to $3.49/bullish -> $2.70/hr index (+3.8% 7d) vs $2.66 Sep 15; H200 $3.33 (+1.8%); RunPod H100 SXM $3.49/$2.69, Lambda $3.99-4.29 unchanged/bullish - b200_rental: Silicon Data B200 index $5.72 (+0.4% 7d) vs $5.65 Aug 28; RunPod B200 $5.98/$6.79, B300 $6.94/$7.89, Lambda B200 $6.69-6.99 all unchanged; B200/H100 ratio ~2.15x/bullish -> Silicon Data B200 $5.87 (+2.3% 7d) vs $5.72 Sep 15; B300 index $6.80 (-2.2%); RunPod B200 $5.98/$6.79, Lambda B200 $6.69-6.99 unchanged; B200/H100 ~2.17x/bullish - hopper_residual: 2020-vintage GPUs contracted to 2029 'at full freight'; A100 index $1.58/hr, above the $1.50 trigger; MSFT 2-6 yr and Meta 5.5 yr server lives unchanged/bullish -> A100 index $1.57/hr (0.0% 7d), above the $1.50 trigger; A100-hyperscaler $3.75 flat; used H100 SXM ~$18-27K by age vs $30K list (Jun); MSFT/Meta lives unchanged/bullish - dc_cost_per_gw: ~$47B/GW Vera Rubin (≈$32B racks + ≈$15B shell/power/cooling); ~$1.3B/yr electricity/neutral -> ~$47B/GW Vera Rubin (≈$32B racks + ≈$15B shell/power/cooling); ~$60B/GW for gas-powered campus incl. generation (Orennia); ~$1.3B/yr electricity/neutral - memory_prices: 2Q26 DRAM industry revenue $154.7B +59.5% QoQ; 3Q26 contracts +13-18%, 4Q26 guided +3-8%; DDR5 16Gb spot $54.33 (Sep 14) vs $53.93 (Aug 27); high-capacity NOR seen +90-110% in 2H26/bullish -> TrendForce raised its 4Q26 contract outlook (Sep 24), from +3-8% previously; enterprise SSD +23-28% QoQ, NAND +15-20%; DDR5 16Gb spot $57.67 (Sep 24) vs $54.33 (Sep 14); DDR4 $83.78 vs $89.25/bullish - power_bottleneck: 474 GW ERCOT queue (~427 GW data centers) vs ~193 GW installed; first Batch Zero audit outputs: Galaxy 1.63 GW approved + 2.6 GW conditional, Cipher 3.2 GW conditional; new-DC interconnection pause holds/bullish -> 474 GW ERCOT queue (~90% data centers); Batch Zero screened ~250-300 projects / ~200 GW; Texas freeze widened Sep 21 to all TCEQ data-center permits; BNEF: 49.8 GW delayed; GE Vernova 116 GW backlog/bullish - capex_vs_backlog: Oracle RPO $664B (+$209B y/y, only +$26B q/q) incl >$30B new AI contracts, funded by a $20B stock sale; Broadcom AI rev $16.7B +221%, Q4 guide $34.8B +93%; 2026 capex ~= $1.0T vs ~$2.4T backlog/neutral -> Oracle RPO $664B (+$26B q/q); Goldman now sees US hyperscaler capex $1.4T in 2027 (Sep 21); Anthropic-Akamai $11.6B/7yr, expandable to ~$20B (Sep 24); 2026 capex ~$1.0T vs ~$2.4T backlog/neutral - neocloud_credit: No new CoreWeave debt print since the Aug 3 SOFR+550 flex; interest expense $640M/qtr (2.4x y/y); AI-related debt issuance near $500B; CoreWeave pays ~SOFR+550 vs Nebius ~+250 - a hardening two-tier market/bearish -> CoreWeave $4.2B 2.875% converts due 2033 (closed Sep 24, upsized from $3B, conv. $97.85); Lambda $926M TLB at SOFR+300, Baa2 (Sep 22); CoreWeave loans still ~SOFR+550; debt $35.1B at Jun 30/neutral - nvidia_dc: DC rev $89.0B +117% YoY (Q2 FY27), GM 75.0%, Q3 guide $108B at 74%; 10-Q: one direct customer >=10% of Q2 revenue (16%) vs two a year ago (23%+16%); five customers = 70% of receivables; supply commitments $279B/bullish -> DC rev $89.0B +117% YoY (Q2 FY27), GM 75.0%, Q3 guide $108B at 74%; one direct customer >=10% (16%); five customers = 70% of receivables; supply commitments $279B; OpenAI Ohio backstop cut to <$120B/bullish ## Calendar changes - 2026-09-29-rba-decision: 2026-09-29 14:30 AEST -> 2026-09-29 14:30 AEST decision, 15:30 AEST presser (00:30 ET Tue) - added 2026-09-29 MACRO US JOLTS job openings, August - added 2026-09-29 MACRO OpenAI DevDay 2026, San Francisco (managed agents expected) - added 2026-09-29 HOOD Robinhood HOOD Summit '26 'Engines of Creation', Houston (Sep 29-30) - 2026-09-30-mu-earnings: 2026-09-30 TBC (expected after US close) -> 2026-09-30 After US close; call 16:30 ET (Thu 06:30 AEST) - added 2026-10-01 BOJ BoJ September Tankan (large manufacturers seen +26, up 4) - added 2026-10-01 MACRO China National Day Golden Week market closure - added 2026-10-01 BYD BYD September sales - added 2026-10-01 MACRO US ISM manufacturing PMI, September (August 54.6) - added 2026-10-01 FED Fed Vice Chair Jefferson on 'US Economy and Monetary Policy'; Waller and Bowman also speak - added 2026-10-01 TSLA Tesla next-gen Roadster unveil, Waco TX - added 2026-10-02 MACRO US September jobs report (no shutdown - CR funds government to Dec 11) - added 2026-10-02 TSLA Tesla Q3 production and deliveries (consensus ~454k; GS 435k, Barclays 475k) - added 2026-10-04 MACRO Sydney daylight saving starts: US open is now 00:30 AEDT - added 2026-10-05 NVDA CME/Silicon Data H100 and B200 GPU rental-index futures launch - added 2026-10-05 MACRO US ISM services PMI, September - added 2026-10-06 MRVL Marvell Investor Day, New York - added 2026-10-06 AMZN Amazon Prime Big Deal Days (22 countries incl. Australia) - added 2026-10-07 FED FOMC minutes from the Sep 15-16 meeting - added 2026-10-07 005930 Samsung Electronics Q3 preliminary earnings guidance - added 2026-10-08 TSM TSMC September revenue (Q3 results follow Oct 15) - added 2026-10-12 MACRO OCP Global Summit (open compute: racks, networking, power); US bond market shut for Columbus Day ## New news (39) - 2026-09-16 [negative] MACRO: Fed hikes 25bp to 3.75-4%, first rise since 2023 - The FOMC voted 12-0 to raise the funds rate to 3.75-4%, saying inflation remains elevated and the economy is expanding at a solid pace. <https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm> - 2026-09-27 [positive] NVDA: China may let ByteDance, Alibaba buy Nvidia RTX PRO 5500 - The Information reported that China's industry ministry asked firms for purchase plans for the workstation chip and signalled approval. Neither Beijing nor the companies confirmed it. <https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/china-weighs-allowing-bytedance-alibaba-to-buy-new-nvidia-chips-the-information-reports-4919047> - 2026-09-21 [positive] NVDA: Chip index up 3% as AMD hits $1T; Trump-Xi dinner in focus - The PHLX semiconductor index rose over 3%, helped by an upcoming Trump-Xi state dinner and demand for server CPUs tied to Meta's Muse. BofA lifted its 2030 chip market estimate to $3.2T. <https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/article/amd-stock-soars-to-new-record-as-semiconductors-bounce-chart-of-the-day-161627271.html> - 2026-09-26 [neutral] MU: Micron reports FQ4 Sep 30 after a 279% YTD run - The Street expects about $50.9B revenue and $31.49 EPS. Rosenblatt and Wolfe both have Buy ratings and $1,500 targets. <https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/microns-279-rally-heading-big-152309318.html> - 2026-09-22 [neutral] TSM: TSMC closes at $447 ahead of Oct 15 Q3 results - TSM ADRs closed at $447.06 on Sep 22, as its 3nm, 4nm and 5nm lines stay fully booked. Q3 results are due Oct 15. <https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/nebenwerte/tsm-stock-closes-0-4-percent-higher-at-the-close/70160052> - 2026-09-21 [positive] MRVL: Marvell up 6% on 2nm optics; MS target to $268 - Marvell showed 2nm optical interconnects at ECOC 2026, and Morgan Stanley raised its target to $268 but kept Hold. Investor day is Oct 6. <https://www.fxleaders.com/news/2026/09/22/marvell-stock-forecast-mrvl-2nm-optical-tech/> - 2026-09-21 [positive] META: Meta jumps 11% as Muse tops App Store; Wells target $796 - Wells Fargo raised its target to $796 from $640 after Muse reached No. 1 on Apple's US App Store. About $200B was added to Meta's market value in one day. <https://www.tipranks.com/news/why-meta-stock-jumped-over-11-today-september-21-2026> - 2026-09-23 [positive] META: Connect: $349 audio glasses, Ray-Ban Gen 3, $1,300 VR glasses - Meta launched camera-free Ray-Ban Meta Audio ($349, ships Oct 13), Ray-Ban Meta Gen 3 ($449) and VR glasses ($1,300, spring 2027), and teased a Muse Charm device. <https://www.engadget.com/2267230/everything-announced-at-meta-connect-2026/> - 2026-09-23 [negative] GOOGL: Alphabet falls 3.8% on cheaper rival models and Muse - Shares fell as OpenAI and Anthropic cut model prices and Meta's Muse gained users, raising worries about search traffic against $195-205B capex. <https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/why-alphabet-googl-stock-down-212205277.html> - 2026-09-22 [neutral] BABA: Apsara: Zhenwu V900 chip, 20GW data-centre goal by 2032 - Alibaba unveiled the V900 AI chip (3x its predecessor, mass production Q1 2027) and said Qwen 4 is in development. The stock then fell 4.7% on Sep 23. <https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/stocks/us-stocks/262180450-alibaba-surges-premarket-ai-chip-cloud-infrastructure-plans-tradingkey> - 2026-09-21 [neutral] AMZN: Amazon blocks Meta's Muse agent from its store - Amazon blocked the Muse shopping agent, citing undisclosed access and credential handling, as it pushes back against third-party AI agents that bypass its ads. <https://www.geekwire.com/2026/amazon-blocks-metas-muse-ai-assistant-in-new-standoff-over-agentic-shopping/> - 2026-09-24 [negative] RKT: Freddie Mac 30-yr mortgage rate hits 7.03%, first time above 7% since Jan 2025 - The 30-yr fixed averaged 7.03%, up from 6.95% the week before; the 15-yr rose to 6.42%. Mortgage News Daily's daily index was 7.43% on Sep 25, against 7.22% on Sep 15. <https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/09/24/3368592/0/en/mortgage-rates-average-7-03.html> - 2026-09-23 [negative] LDI: Mortgage applications fall 1.5%; refinancing at its slowest pace since Feb 2025 - MBA's refinance index fell 3% and is 62% lower than a year ago, with the 30-yr contract rate at 7.12%. This hits refinance-heavy lenders like loanDepot and Rocket. <https://www.housingwire.com/articles/mortgage-applications-fall-rates-7/> - 2026-09-18 [negative] NFLX: Wells Fargo cuts Netflix to Underweight, target $57 from $80 - The analyst cites daily viewing per member down 8% from 2023 and expects viewing of big originals to fall 21% in H2. The stock fell 4.7% that day to $71.79. <https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/wells-fargo-cuts-netflix-nflx-205315969.html> - 2026-09-22 [negative] NFLX: HSBC downgrades Netflix to Hold, target $76 from $96 - HSBC notes YouTube reached a record 14.2% of US TV viewing in July while Netflix fell to 7.8%. Netflix reported 97B viewing hours in H1 and nearly doubled US ad commitments. <https://www.tipranks.com/news/netflix-stock-slides-as-youtube-threat-tests-its-live-sports-and-advertising-strategy> - 2026-09-21 [neutral] ENPH: Enphase IQ Meter Collar approved by 80 utilities serving 38M customers - The collar lets homes get whole-home battery backup without moving circuits. It is a small positive that did not stop a 12% slide in the stock since Sep 15. <https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/09/21/3365427/20176/en/enphase-energy-announces-iq-meter-collar-approval-by-80-utilities-in-the-u-s-and-canada.html> - 2026-09-21 [positive] AXOS: Axos closes purchase of $1.9B in IRA deposits from Capital One - Axos Bank took on about $1.9B of IRA savings and CD balances and received cash equal to the balances less a negotiated premium. This adds stable funding. <https://www.tipranks.com/news/company-announcements/axos-financial-expands-ira-deposits-with-capital-one-deal> - 2026-09-22 [neutral] OPENAI: OpenAI launches GPT-6 Sol and Luna with API prices cut about 50% - Sol costs $2/$10 and Luna $0.10/$0.50 per million tokens, and the prices are permanent. Sol matches Claude Sonnet 5 pricing, which points to tighter margins across the AI labs. <https://venturebeat.com/technology/openai-releases-gpt-6-sol-and-luna-models-slashing-api-costs-50-or-more> - 2026-09-15 [neutral] OPENAI: Altman says OpenAI IPO pushed to 2027 - Altman told Fortune a 2026 listing would be 'ill-advised' and gave safety work as the reason. The company filed confidentially in June. <https://fortune.com/2026/09/15/sam-altman-says-openai-ipo-window-pushed-2027-but-markets-arent-the-culprit/> - 2026-09-24 [negative] MACRO: US 10-year yield hits highest since 2007 - The 10-year reached 5.12% and the 30-year 5.37% after a strong PMI and oil near $100; futures priced about 70% odds of an October Fed hike. The 10-year had been 4.96% on Mon Sep 21. <https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/article/10-year-treasury-yield-hits-highest-level-since-2007-as-market-prices-in-another-fed-rate-hike-152744538.html> - 2026-09-25 [positive] MACRO: Oil slides 2% on US-Iran truce hopes; Brent $104.32, WTI $92.41 - Truce talk and a possible US diesel-export ban outweighed Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia. Brent was up under 1% for the week and WTI down about 8%. <https://boereport.com/2026/09/25/oil-prices-slide-about-2-as-us-iran-explore-path-out-of-war/> - 2026-09-21 [negative] MACRO: All big-four banks expect RBA hike to 4.60% on Tue Sep 29 - Markets price about 90%+ odds of a 25 bp hike from 4.35% (it would be the fourth rise this year). The drivers are Brent near $100 and firm July CPI and GDP. Decision 2:30pm AEST Tuesday. <https://investinglive.com/central-banks/all-four-major-australian-banks-now-forecast-rba-hike-to-4-60-on-september-29/> - 2026-09-18 [neutral] MACRO: BOJ hikes to 1.25%, highest since 1995, on a 7-2 vote - This was the second hike in three months, driven by oil and weak-yen import costs. Two dissents clouded the path for further hikes and the yen fell. <https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2026/09/18/japan-policy-rate-raised-central-bank-weak-yen/6681789772736/> - 2026-09-18 [positive] MACRO: Chip stocks rebound from 'slow down AI' selloff - Intel said it can meet only about half of CPU demand. Intel rose 7.7%, AMD 6.5% and Micron 5.5%. The SOX then gained 6.3% for the week to Sep 25, and AMD passed $1T in market cap on Sep 21. <https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/intc-amd-mu-nvda-chip-021704996.html> - 2026-09-16 [negative] MACRO: China August retail sales up only 0.4% y/y - Car sales fell 18.5% y/y. Excluding autos, retail sales rose 2.5%. January-August retail sales were up 1.1%. <https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/202609/t20260916_1965341.html> - 2026-09-22 [positive] ANTHROPIC: Anthropic launches Claude Opus 5.5 at 20% lower list price - Priced at $4/$20 per million input/output tokens, down from $5/$25 for Opus 5. Anthropic says it matches Fable 5.1 on most work and runs 30% faster. <https://www.anthropic.com/news/claude-opus-5-5> - 2026-09-26 [neutral] ANTHROPIC: Anthropic public S-1 still not filed; IPO timing slipping - No public filing was on EDGAR as of Sep 26, although one had been expected after Labor Day. Reported targets are a roadshow in mid-October at the earliest and a valuation of up to $2T. <https://forkast.news/the-anthropic-s-1-that-was-expected-after-labor-day-still-hasnt-arrived/> - 2026-09-22 [positive] NET: Cloudflare +6.8% as yields dip below 5% - The stock rose on lower yields and easing US-China tension, and Cloudflare also launched Python Workers for agentic AI workloads. <https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/cloudflare-net-shares-skyrocket-know-005425926.html> - 2026-09-25 [negative] NET: Cloudflare -2.6% after disclosing container data-isolation flaw - The flaw could have exposed residual disk data across customers. It is fixed and Cloudflare found no evidence it was exploited. The stock is still up 78% YTD and near its 52-week high of $358.82. <https://markets.financialcontent.com/stocks/article/stockstory-2026-9-25-cloudflare-net-stock-trades-down-here-is-why> - 2026-09-17 [positive] HOOD: Robinhood +5.4% as several brokers lift targets - Deutsche Bank, Goldman, Jefferies, Mizuho and others raised targets, clustering around $130-133. They cited Robinhood Chain fees above a $100M run rate and prediction markets. <https://stockstotrade.com/news/robinhood-markets-inc-hood-news-2026_09_17/> - 2026-09-29 [neutral] HOOD: HOOD Summit keynote Tue Sep 29, 5:30pm CT (Wed 8:30am AEST) - Vlad Tenev will unveil new products for active traders in Houston. Specific product announcements have not been disclosed in advance. <https://robinhood.com/us/en/newsroom/robinhood-presents-hood-summit-26-engines-of-creation/> - 2026-09-16 [positive] SKHY: SK hynix union approves revised wage deal - 57.1% voted yes (8,731 votes) to a deal lifting the cash share of bonuses to 50% from 40%. Removes strike risk during the HBM4 ramp. <https://www.brecorder.com/news/40439743/south-koreas-sk-hynix-union-approves-tentative-wage-deal-with-management-source-says> - 2026-09-25 [positive] SKHY: Solidigm weighs 2027 IPO at up to $150B - Reuters: SK hynix's US NAND/SSD unit may raise ~$15B, against the ~$9B paid for Intel's business in 2020. SK hynix says nothing is decided. <https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/exclusivesk-hynixs-solidigm-weighs-ipo-that-could-value-theunit-at-up-to-150-billion-sources-say-4917883> - 2026-09-24 [negative] BE: Oracle sends force majeure notice on 2.45 GW Project Jupiter - The gas pipeline feeding Bloom's fuel cells slipped to Feb 2027, and the air permit is due Nov 23. Oracle and Bloom say the schedule holds; BE rose 8% to $288.70 on Sep 25. <https://techcrunch.com/2026/09/24/oracle-sends-force-majeure-notice-on-its-new-mexico-stargate-data-center/> - 2026-09-24 [negative] AVGO: China surveys Broadcom switches in state data centres - SASAC found Broadcom at up to 90% of switch equipment at some state firms and may push a gradual shift to Huawei, H3C and Ruijie. Private operators such as Alibaba and ByteDance are not affected. <https://www.sdxcentral.com/news/broadcom-data-center-network-switches-under-state-microscope-in-china-report/> - 2026-09-16 [negative] 3750: CATL slides to one-year low as automakers diversify batteries - Li Auto moved to Sunwoda cells and Xiaomi to four suppliers. HK shares fell from near HK$800 to about HK$500, though CATL still held 41.45% of China installations in August. <https://cnevpost.com/2026/09/16/catl-shares-extend-slide/> - 2026-09-15 [negative] HOOD: Two Robinhood engineers charged with crypto insider trading - SDNY says they traded Hyperliquid perps ahead of 10-11 Robinhood listing announcements, making over $50K each. Robinhood reported them itself. <https://www.coindesk.com/business/2026/09/16/two-robinhood-engineers-charged-with-insider-trading-using-hyperliquid-perpetuals> - 2026-09-25 [negative] TSLA: EU delays Tesla FSD vote to December at earliest - The Oct 6 committee meeting will only discuss FSD. Sweden and France object over speeding; 7 countries recognise the Dutch approval so far. <https://electrek.co/2026/09/25/eu-delays-tesla-fsd-vote-december-tcmv-agenda/> - 2026-09-21 [positive] ALAB: Astera Labs jumps 12% as AI chips rebound - Closed at $340.74 on Sep 21 and $364.62 by Sep 25, up 42% from the Sep 14 selloff low of $257. <https://www.tradingkey.com/news/market-movers/262179081-market-movers-alab-20260921> ## Notes Closing prices come from stockanalysis.com daily history, latest Fri Sep 25. The 'Sep 15' baselines match the Sep 14 US closes exactly (the prior run was Sep 15 AEST), so moves are measured from Sep 14 US closes. Fed decision confirmed on federalreserve.gov (CNBC returned 403). The GOOGL Yahoo article dates the drop Sep 24, but the price data shows it on Sep 23 (close $337.83); Sep 23 is used. Gaps: no company-specific TSM news after Sep 10 (the TSMC press page has nothing newer; its move was sector-driven), and the TSM item is from ad-hoc-news, a weaker source. The Nvidia China chip story is unconfirmed (Reuters could not verify The Information). Could not open the Alizila Apsara page (403), so TradingKey is used. No AMZN earnings or guidance news in the window. | Prices are Fri Sep 25 closes from stockanalysis.com history pages. The 'Sep 15' baselines in the brief match stockanalysis Sep 14 closes; moves are measured from those baselines. Axos trades as AX on NYSE, not AXOS. LDI close is rounded to $0.67 by the source. For OpenAI, Forge's ~$894B indicative price (Sep 21) is a marketplace quote, so the mark stays at 5.43. No in-window company news was found for FIGR, LDI (beyond the Aug 21 NYSE notice) or STRIPE. The Fortune IPO article is dated Sep 15; the Politico piece on the same story (Sep 12) is already covered. Fed: 16 of 18 participants see another hike. I could not open CNBC's Fed page (403), so the Fed item cites federalreserve.gov. OpenAI DevDay is Sep 29, so check for announcements in the next run. | Nothing material found since Sep 15 for CURSOR (SpaceX-owned since Aug 14; OpenAI cut-off Nov 12 was reported Aug 29), AAPL (iPhone 18 Pro on sale Sep 18; Duo preorders Oct 16, ships Oct 23 - both announced earlier), SPOT (Partner Program to 35 more markets Sep 17; Q3 results Thu Oct 22 before US open = ~10pm AEST Thu), or 1211.HK (quoted prices were inconsistent across sources, so none are used; August sales record already covered; EGM Sep 29). Unverified: the 10-year Friday close is 5.18% per Yahoo live blog, with CNBC citing 5.23% intraday; the 5.12% figure used in the news item is from Sep 24. The ABC blog showed US 10y 5.12% and Brent $106 in early Monday Asia trade. The HOOD analyst item comes from a secondary aggregator (stockstotrade). The Anthropic Nasdaq/October-listing report (Business Insider) is dated Sep 13-14, before the window, so it is excluded. ASX this morning: futures +3 pts to 8,720; ABC live blog https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-09-28/asx-markets-business-live-news-september-28/107201818 (no open print yet at time of research). AUD 70.43 US cents, gold ~$4,379. Weekly index moves from AP via https://krmg.com/2026/09/25/how-major-us-stock-indexes-fared-friday-9-25-2026/ ; SOX closes from investing.com historical data. | Prices are Sep 25 closes. FX: USD/JPY 157.23 (Sep 25), USD/HKD ~7.78 (peg), EUR/USD ~1.138 (Sep 24, used only for removed ENR). Removed: CRDO (third AI-connectivity name after ALAB and AVGO), ENR (overlaps GEV, separation unsigned), 3750 CATL (customers diversifying, one-year low, overlaps BYD). That leaves 15. No new name added. Status changes: SKHY accumulate/medium to buy/high (union deal passed); BE accumulate to watch (above consensus, Jupiter permit risk); NET buy to accumulate (above consensus target, conviction stays high). GEV earnings date corrected from Oct 21 to Oct 28. Keyence results Oct 28, BYD Oct 29, Toyota Nov 5, SE Nov 10, TER Oct 27. ALAB's claimed Q3 guide of $540-560M came from a single aggregator and was left out as unverified. BE class-action lead-plaintiff deadline is today (Sep 28). | Refreshed 2026-09-28. Changes: neocloud_credit bearish->neutral (trend down = cost of money easing) on CoreWeave's $4.2B 2.875% convert and Lambda's Baa2 SOFR+300 TLB; h100_rental and b200_rental trend flat->up (+3.8% / +2.3% 7d). memory_prices watch revised: the '4Q26 guided only +3-8%' clause was stale after TrendForce raised its 4Q26 outlook on Sep 24 (exact server DRAM % paywalled; NAND +15-20%, eSSD +23-28%). Micron reports Sep 30, after this refresh. No explainer: the call (compute selling at a premium, risk in financing) is unchanged, and the only red leg has eased. Unverified/not opened: Bloomberg CoreWeave piece (paywall), ERCOT Sep 11 board PDF (403), CNBC Nvidia $99B investments (403), TrendForce server DRAM 4Q26 %. dc_cost_per_gw had no new estimate; Orennia (May 21) added as source. Silicon Data page shows no explicit date; values read Sep 28. | Times: AEST = ET+14h until Sun Oct 4; AEDT = ET+15h from Oct 4. No government shutdown: a CR passed Sep 1 funds the government through Dec 11, so BLS/BEA data are on schedule. JOLTS is Sep 29 (not in October). CPI is Oct 14 and PPI Oct 15 - just outside the window. TSMC September revenue is Oct 8 per TSMC's financial calendar, not ~Oct 10. The Fed calendar shows no Chair Warsh remarks Sep 28-Oct 12; Jefferson (Oct 1) is the most policy-relevant speaker. Samsung's preliminary Q3 date is not posted; Oct 7 is an estimate (TBC). BYD September sales date/time TBC. CME compute futures launch is pending regulatory review. Anthropic IPO has reportedly slipped from October to November (late October at the earliest), so it is outside this window. No other central bank decisions in the window: RBNZ is Oct 28 and the next FOMC is Oct 27-28. Not in window: NVDA GTC DC (Nov 30-Dec 3), NFLX/ASML/TSM Q3 results (mid-Oct), TechCrunch Disrupt with Anthropic/OpenAI (Oct 13-15). Cloudflare Birthday Week 2026 dates were not found; it is usually the week of Sep 27 and has probably already happened.
Nothing here is financial advice. Holdings and opinions are my own; the "agent" sections are written by an automated research skill and may be wrong. Built 2026-09-28 21:35 UTC.