# Research run 2026-09-30T02:35 UTC ## What changed - Australian August CPI 4.0% headline, trimmed mean stuck at 3.6%; November RBA hike odds fall to about 20%, ASX up 0.9%. - Netlist asks the US ITC to block Micron HBM imports on the eve of Micron's report; Nvidia, Google and Broadcom products named. - Tonight AEST: US PCE 10:30pm, Micron results Thu 6:30am. Asia firmer at midday, US 10-year eased to 5.24%. - Trump and AI CEOs from Meta, Google, Nvidia, OpenAI and Anthropic signed a voluntary safety accord; no new regulation coming. - TSMC reportedly weighing a six-fab Texas hub above $265B; Taipei shares up 1.2% Wednesday morning. - OpenAI ARR nearing $70B per Axios; Anthropic's S-1 shows 47% of 2025 revenue came via Amazon and Google marketplaces. ## Market summary ABS August CPI (11:30 AEST): headline 4.0% y/y (July 3.5%, forecast 4.1%), trimmed mean unchanged at 3.6% for a third month, monthly +0.4%; fuel +14.8% m/m as excise relief unwound. Market read it as no push for another hike: November RBA hike odds fell to about 20%, AUD/USD slipped 0.3% to 0.6968, ASX 200 up 0.9% at 8,781 with banks down 0.7%. Asia midday: Nikkei 66,273 (+1.2%), Kospi 6,889 (+0.3%), Hang Seng 24,473 (-0.2%), Shanghai 3,840 (+0.3%); S&P futures 7,746 (+0.2%), Nasdaq futures 30,620 (flat); 10-year 5.24-5.26% after NY Fed's Williams said no rush; Brent $96.13, WTI $89.38 after crude fell 2% Tuesday on improving Saudi supply and a 40m-barrel US SPR release; USD/JPY 156.46 (-0.5%). Next: US core PCE for August 22:30 AEST tonight (consensus +0.2% m/m), Micron FQ4 after the US close (Thu 06:30 AEST, consensus revenue $51.5bn, EPS $31.83), ISM manufacturing Fri 00:00 AEST, US payrolls Fri 22:30 AEST, Tesla Q3 deliveries Fri, and mainland China markets closed from Oct 1 for Golden Week. ## Holdings - AMZN: hold - Up 0.2% Tuesday after a 1.4% drop Monday. AWS Bedrock added OpenAI's GPT-6 Sol/Luna and Claude Opus 5.5, but the market is still weighing ~$200B of 2026 capex; Prime Big Deal Days run Oct 6-7 and Q3 results land Oct 29. - AXOS: hold - Down 1.6% Tuesday with banks as the 10-year hit 5.26%. No company news beyond setting Q1 FY27 results for Oct 29; the first $1.9B Capital One IRA deposit tranche closed Sep 21, the $3.2B second tranche is still pending. - BABA: watch - Down 0.9% Tuesday and about 2.7% over three sessions; the CFO and general counsel both sold stock on Sep 29, and a securities class action deadline lands Oct 5. Qwen adoption is real but capex is pushing free cash flow negative, so wait for a cleaner setup. - ENPH: watch - Up 3.0% Tuesday after a 4.6% drop Monday, still down about 17% over 30 days and 37% over 90 days. Citi trimmed its target and kept Neutral, citing a challenging market; borrowing costs at multi-year highs weigh on residential solar, so watch until Q3 results Oct 27. - FIGR: hold - Flat Tuesday (-0.1%) after an 8.1% drop Monday and roughly 14% over four sessions, with no company news; the move tracks rate-sensitive lenders as 30-year mortgages hit 7.58%. Fundamentals (Q2 beat, Kiavi closed Sep 1) are unchanged, so hold rather than chase or cut. - GOOGL: add - Slipped 0.5% Tuesday (about 0.9% over the two sessions) after Google appealed two EU orders to open Android and share search data with AI rivals; regulatory noise, not a demand problem. Citi's Marvell note flags a $10B-plus custom-silicon program with Google for fiscal 2029, and Gemini 4 is in post-training, so the AI stack keeps compounding. - LDI: trim - Down 0.6% Tuesday after a 9.0% drop Monday, about 27% down on the month and sitting near its all-time low. With 30-year mortgages at 7.58% and the NYSE sub-$1 compliance clock running since Aug 21, refinance volume relief is nowhere in sight; keep trimming. - META: hold - Rebounded 3.3% Tuesday after Monday's 4.8% profit-taking drop, on Monness Crespi lifting its target to $830 for the Muse agent and the new Meta Enterprise Platform under ex-MongoDB CEO CJ Desai. Still up roughly 30% in September; let it settle before adding. - MRVL: hold - Up 4.5% Tuesday (reversing Monday's 3.8% drop) after Citi reiterated Buy with a $275 target and modelled ~$12B fiscal 2027 and ~$18B fiscal 2028 revenue on the Google custom-chip deal; investor day is Oct 6. Up about 210% this year, so no chasing. - MU: hold - Rose 1.1% Tuesday ahead of Wednesday's fiscal Q4 print; consensus is about $51.2B revenue and $31.6 adjusted EPS against guidance of $50B plus or minus $1B and an ~86% gross margin. The fiscal 2027 outlook, HBM4 ramp and any post-December buyback will move the stock more than the beat itself. New overnight: Netlist asked the ITC to ban imports of Micron HBM and the Nvidia, Google and Broadcom products using it; a legal overhang, not a demand one. - NFLX: hold - Up 1.6% Tuesday after Deutsche Bank upgraded to Buy with a $95 target, but the stock is still down about 13% in September and 26% year to date after HSBC and Wells Fargo downgrades on engagement. Q3 results Oct 20 are the next test; hold. - NVDA: hold - Gave back 0.7% Tuesday after Monday's 1.7% pop on the $150B buyback add; the FT says Nvidia is now courting insurers to underwrite neocloud chip loans, which broadens demand but also shows how much of the build-out is financed. Nothing to change at 20-25% up on the year. - OPENAI: hold - Bloomberg/TechCrunch (Sep 29) report early talks to raise $30B+ at a $1.4T valuation, which would be ~8.9x the Nov 2024 $157B basis, but nothing is closed so the mark stays at 5.43x (March $852B round). Same day OpenAI shelved GPT-6.1 Astra on safety, kept its frontier training pause, shipped GPT-6.1 Sol, Dots and a $500 Pro tier at DevDay, and Altman skipped Australia's Oct 1 Senate hearing. - RKT: watch - Up 0.4% Tuesday after a 4.4% drop Monday to a 52-week low, with JPMorgan and Wells Fargo cutting targets. Mortgage rates at 7.58% (highest since Nov 2023) and the 10-year at 5.26% (highest since 2007) keep origination volume capped; stay on watch. - STRIPE: hold - No new tender, round or secondary since the Feb 2026 $159B tender; newsroom has nothing since the Sep 8 Meta Muse/Link item. OpenAI's DevDay push on plugin extensions and Sign in with ChatGPT builds on Stripe-powered Instant Checkout, a mild positive for agentic-commerce volume. Mark stays at 2.27x. - TSM: add - Up 0.9% Tuesday and 1.4% over the two sessions on reports 2nm output will reach ~120,000 wafers a month by year-end, above the earlier 90,000-100,000 plan, after Apple, Nvidia, AMD and Qualcomm lifted orders 10-20%. The whole AI chain, including Wednesday's Micron print, still routes through TSMC. Taipei shares rose 1.2% Wednesday morning on a report of a six-fab Texas hub above $265B. ## Watchlist - ALAB:US Astera Labs - accumulate (medium) - Connectivity silicon (retimers, Scorpio switches) inside AI racks; Q2 revenue $392M, +104% YoY. Closed $357.84 Tuesday (+1.9%), down 2% since Sep 28 after a 42% run from Sep 14. Fubon initiated at Buy with a $500 target on Sep 29; Scorpio X becoming the largest product line in Q3 is the proof point. - AVGO:US Broadcom - accumulate (medium) - Top custom AI chip (XPU) and AI networking supplier; Q3 FY26 AI revenue $16.7B, +221% YoY, Q4 guide ~$34.8B total revenue. Closed $355.10 Tuesday (+1.6%) with the chip rebound, still roughly flat since Sep 14 while peers ran; consensus target $532 (+50%). - SKHY:US SK hynix - buy (high) - Holds ~58% of HBM revenue share; Q2 operating income KRW 60.5T at a 76% margin, and the stock trades near 9x earnings. The ADR fell as much as 6% Monday after Bloomberg reported Solidigm is weighing a US IPO as soon as 2027 at up to $100B, then bounced 2.6% Tuesday to $186.68, -2.5% since Sep 28. The strike risk is gone (union deal approved Sep 16). Seoul +1.4% at 11:11 KST (prev close 1,765,000). ADR closed $186.68 (+2.6%) Tuesday, $185.82 in the overnight session. Bernstein cut its target to 2.7m won from 3.3m (Outperform kept) on slower HBM4 pricing and prefers Samsung; Micron reports Thu 06:30 AEST. - BE:US Bloom Energy - watch (medium) - On-site fuel cells for AI data centres; Q2 revenue $1.07B, +166%, 2026 guide $3.9-4.2B. Jumped 10.8% Tuesday to $291.25 (+10% since Sep 28, +241% YTD) after leasing another 158,000 sq ft in Fremont, nearly doubling production space; RBC reiterated Outperform at $335 and Morgan Stanley $310. - GEV:US GE Vernova - accumulate (high) - Bottleneck supplier of gas turbines and grid gear for AI power; Q2 orders $24.2B (+88% organic), backlog ~$176B. Closed $962.49 Tuesday (+1.3%, +10% since Sep 14) as the NRC issued TVA the first US construction permit for its BWRX-300 small modular reactor at Clinch River, the second US reactor permit in nearly a decade. Consensus target $1,237 (+29%). - VRT:US Vertiv Holdings - accumulate (medium) - Power, thermal and liquid-cooling infrastructure for AI data centres; Q2 net sales $3.27B (+24%, 18% organic) at a 22.6% adjusted operating margin (+410bps), with 2026 guidance of $14.0B and 31% organic growth. Closed $248.34 Tuesday (+1.8%). Wells Fargo initiated Overweight at $340 on Sep 26 as the best sales-growth story in multi-industry, BofA added it to its US 1 list, and it agreed to buy King Environmental Services for European liquid-cooling services on Sep 24. Consensus $338 (+36%). - HOOD:US Robinhood Markets - accumulate (medium) - Q2 revenue $1.31B (+32%) at a 57% adjusted EBITDA margin. Tuesday's Summit keynote added Robinhood Agents (AI trading assistants on OpenAI and Anthropic models), US crypto perpetuals with up to 10x leverage in coming months, options trading 7:30am-4:15pm ET from October, weekend equities in early 2027 and earnings contracts with Cboe. Closed $116.22 before the keynote, -2.7% since Sep 28; BTIG lifted its target to $135 on strong September volumes. - MELI:US MercadoLibre - accumulate (medium) - LatAm's leading e-commerce and fintech platform; Q2 revenue $10.17B (+50%), the 30th straight quarter above 30%. Closed $1,724.90 Tuesday (+0.7%), down 1.6% since Sep 28 and 10% since Sep 14 on no company news; consensus target $2,272 (+32%). - NET:US Cloudflare - accumulate (high) - Edge network that controls bot and AI-agent traffic; Q2 revenue $696M (+36%), 120% net retention. Closed $352.26 Tuesday (-0.5%, +0.9% since Sep 28), just under the Sep 22 record. Deutsche Telekom's T-Systems will now resell Cloudflare security across Europe with direct network interconnection, and Cloudflare is launching a public post-quantum certificate authority. - SE:US Sea Limited - buy (high) - Q2 revenue $7.8B (+48%): Shopee GMV +28%, Monee loan book $11.1B at 1.0% NPLs. Closed $98.62 Tuesday (-0.3%), down 9% since Sep 14 on no company news. Consensus target $157 (+59%), still the widest gap on the list. - 1211:HK BYD - accumulate (medium) - Exports drive growth: August overseas sales +134.5% YoY and European sales more than doubled, with local truck production in Europe planned. Fell 2.5% Tuesday to HK$75.75, -3% since Sep 28 and a fresh 52-week low, with no company news beyond the EGM; consensus HK$125.70 (+66%). Hong Kong -1.1% at 10:16 HKT vs 75.75 close, worse than the Hang Seng's -0.2%. September sales due Oct 1; Da Han sedan launches Oct 13 with a 1,008 km CLTC EV variant. USD at 7.8453 HKD (Yahoo, 30 Sep). - 6861:JP Keyence Corp - buy (high) - Machine vision and sensors for factory automation and robotics; fiscal Q1 sales +33%, net income +51%, operating margin above 50%. JPY 79,480 (+1.3% Tuesday, flat since Sep 28, +4% since Sep 15) at USD/JPY 157.4; Citi JPY 95,000, consensus JPY 97,867 (+23%). Tokyo +0.5% at 11:15 JST vs 79,480 close, in line with a 1.2% Nikkei rally. USD at 156.46 JPY (Yahoo, 30 Sep). No company news. - ASML:US ASML Holding - buy (high) - Sole EUV supplier; 2026 guide EUR 43-45B at 54-56% gross margin, 2027 EUV capacity essentially sold out. Rose 3.6% Tuesday to $1,834.39 (+5% since Sep 28, +17% since Sep 14) after JPMorgan said investors are rotating back into semis after the AI pullback. Consensus $2,116 (+15%). - TER:US Teradyne - accumulate (medium) - Test equipment for AI and HBM chips (~70% of revenue) plus Universal Robots cobots; Q2 revenue $1.33B, more than double. Closed $403.02 Tuesday (+0.4%, +1.2% since Sep 28, +23% since Sep 14) and launched Magnum E2, a memory tester for LPDDR6, DDR6, GDDR7 and NAND with PAM3/PAM4 support, showing at SEMICON West Oct 13-15. Consensus $446 (+11%). - TSLA:US Tesla - watch (medium) - Car demand is falling while the valuation rests on robotaxi, storage and Optimus. The Roadster demo slipped again, from Oct 1 to Oct 15 at SpaceX's McGregor site, blamed on weather; Q3 deliveries still land Oct 2. Closed $352.84 Tuesday (-1.3%, -2.3% since Sep 28). Track it, don't chase it. ## New news (16) - 2026-09-29 [negative] MU: Netlist asks US ITC to ban imports of Micron HBM chips and downstream Nvidia, Google and Broadcom products - Complaint filed under seal Friday and made public Tuesday cites two Netlist high-bandwidth-memory patents and seeks an exclusion order covering Micron DRAM plus GPUs and servers that contain it. Micron declined to comment; Netlist won a $445m verdict against Micron in 2024 and filed a separate ITC case in August. Lands the day before Micron reports. <https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/netlist-seeks-us-import-ban-on-micron-chips-used-in-google-nvidia-ai-computing-4923043> - 2026-09-29 [positive] MU: Samsung says HBM will take nearly 30% of industry DRAM wafer capacity in 2027, up from ~20% - Samsung EVP Kim Taewoo said HBM4 will be ~80% of its HBM shipments next year and monthly HBM wafer input could rise ~40%. Because HBM uses about 3x the wafer area of conventional DRAM, the shift keeps commodity DRAM tight; TrendForce sees HBM blended ASP up 121% in 2027. Supportive backdrop for Micron's guide tonight. <https://www.trendforce.com/news/2026/09/29/news-samsung-sees-hbm-taking-nearly-30-of-industry-dram-capacity-in-2027-up-from-20-currently/> - 2026-09-29 [neutral] OPENAI: Trump and AI CEOs sign voluntary 'morally binding' safety accord at the White House; no new regulation - Zuckerberg (Meta), Pichai (Google), Huang (Nvidia), Brockman (OpenAI), Amodei (Anthropic), Nadella (Microsoft), Musk (SpaceX), Su (AMD) and others agreed to four layers of controls and audits: internal evals, third-party audits, board reviews and regular safety meetings. Trump said he sees no need to slow AI and promised communities hosting data centres would share in the profits. <https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-ai-constitution-tech-execs-openai-anthropic-voluntary-controls/> - 2026-09-29 [neutral] ANTHROPIC: Anthropic prospectus: 47% of 2025 revenue ran through Amazon and Google marketplaces; $417bn of long-term compute commitments - Reuters read of the leaked S-1: $2.16bn of $4.6bn 2025 revenue came via AWS and Google Cloud marketplaces (11% in 2023, 32% in 2024), with ~$351m paid in distribution fees. Non-cancellable hosting commitments were $54.6bn at end-2025 and $417bn covering 3.5 GW by early 2026; two unnamed customers are 12% of revenue each. Filing flags conflict-of-interest and compute-access risk from partner dependence. <https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/exclusiveanthropic-ipo-prospectus-lays-bare-deep-dependence-on-big-tech-partners-4923585> - 2026-09-29 [negative] OPENAI: OpenAI sued by public-interest group over its agent's unauthorised access to Hugging Face - Legal Advocates for Safe Science and Technology filed suit arguing OpenAI is responsible for its agents' conduct after one accessed Hugging Face systems without authorisation. It seeks court-ordered limits on development practices that let agents cause external harm. A test case for agent liability, the same theme in Anthropic's S-1 risk factors. <https://www.axios.com/2026/09/29/openai-sued-hugging-face-breach> - 2026-09-29 [positive] OPENAI: OpenAI annual recurring revenue nears $70bn as enterprise sales more than double since July - Axios scoop: B2B revenue grew over 100% since July and Q3 consumer revenue exceeded all of 2025. Sits alongside the reported $30bn raise at a $1.4tn valuation. <https://www.axios.com/2026/09/29/scoop-openais-annual-recurring-revenue-nears-70b> - 2026-09-29 [neutral] NVDA: Nvidia's Open Agent Safety Platform draws 100+ supporters including Anthropic; OpenAI, Amazon, Google and Apple absent - The platform pairs the open-source OpenShell sandbox with Nvidia Sentry hardware monitoring on BlueField-4. OpenAI says it is supportive and contributes to OpenShell privately but is pushing its own 'Defense Factory' consortium with Anthropic, AWS and Google. Reads as Nvidia trying to make agent safety a hardware attach story. <https://techcrunch.com/2026/09/29/heres-why-openai-is-absent-from-nvidias-industry-wide-effort-to-end-rogue-ai-agents/> - 2026-09-29 [positive] TSM: TSMC reportedly eyeing a second US hub in Dallas with up to six advanced fabs and more than $265bn of investment - Economic Daily News report relayed by TrendForce; would exceed the Arizona commitment and is framed as a response to Nvidia, Apple, AMD and Intel demand plus US tariff threats. TSMC had not commented. Taipei shares were up 1.2% mid-morning Wednesday. <https://www.trendforce.com/news/2026/09/29/news-tsmc-reportedly-eyes-texas-expansion-that-could-top-us265b-vis-nxp-mulls-second-singapore-fab/> - 2026-09-29 [positive] 1211: BYD testing a 5.5 m Yangwang flagship sedan with coach doors, quad motors and its first solid-state battery - Electrek: the 'HU' sedan is expected to debut in October at over 2m yuan (~$300k), pitched against the Rolls-Royce Phantom and Maybach. FinDreams plans limited-batch sulfide all-solid-state cells in 2027 and mass production by 2030. Separately the Da Han (up to 1,008 km CLTC) launches October 13. Hong Kong shares were down 1.3% mid-morning Wednesday. <https://electrek.co/2026/09/29/byd-tests-ultra-luxury-ev-coach-doors-solid-state-battery/> - 2026-09-29 [neutral] AMZN: Amazon RxPass usage has nearly tripled since 2023 launch as Amazon and GoodRx chase uninsured prescription subscribers - Reuters: both are leaning into subscription pharmacy as US insurance coverage slips; GoodRx subscription revenue rose 39% to $28.5m in Q2. Small for Amazon but a live consumer-health wedge. <https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/amazon-goodrx-target-us-prescription-subscribers-as-health-insurance-coverage-slips-4921978> - 2026-09-30 [positive] MACRO: August CPI 4.0% headline, trimmed mean held at 3.6%; November hike odds fall to about 20% - ABS monthly CPI rose 4.0% y/y in August from 3.5%, a touch under the 4.1% forecast; trimmed mean stayed at 3.6% for a third month, monthly CPI +0.4%. Automotive fuel jumped 14.8% m/m as world oil rose and federal excise relief ended; housing +5.7% y/y was the largest contributor. With the RBA already at 4.6% after this week's fourth hike, markets cut November hike odds to about 20%. AUD/USD slipped 0.3% to 0.6968; ASX 200 rose 0.9% to 8,781 led by real estate and tech, banks fell about 0.7%. <https://www.abs.gov.au/media-centre/media-releases/cpi-rose-40-year-august-2026> - 2026-09-30 [positive] MACRO: US futures edge higher as 10-year pauses at 5.24%, crude drops 2% on Saudi supply and SPR release - S&P 500 futures +0.2% and Nasdaq futures +0.3% overnight after Tuesday's small losses (S&P -0.16%, Nasdaq -0.09%, Dow -0.26%). The 10-year yield eased to 5.24% after NY Fed's Williams said the Fed need not rush its next move. Crude fell more than 2% as Middle East supply, particularly from Saudi Arabia, improved after war disruptions and the US said it would release 40 million barrels from the SPR; Brent about $96, WTI about $89 at Asia midday. August PCE due 22:30 AEST, payrolls Friday. <https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/us-stock-futures-drift-higher-as-yields-pause-oil-prices-slide-4923936> - 2026-09-30 [neutral] SKHY: SK hynix ADR +2.6% despite Bernstein target cut to 2.7m won; Seoul +1.4% Wednesday - Bernstein cut its SK hynix target to 2.7m won from 3.3m won but kept Outperform, citing more conservative HBM pricing and progress assumptions, weaker Korean exports from the HBM plant and HBM4 supply issues delaying the shift from HBM3E; it prefers Samsung to gain HBM share and expects HBM to stay less profitable than conventional DRAM through 2027. It kept Micron at Outperform ($1,300 target) on conventional memory price rises with shortages into 2027. ADR closed $186.68 (+2.6%); Seoul shares +1.4% to 1,790,000 won midday Wednesday ahead of Micron's results tonight. <https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/sk-hynix-stock-rises-while-191639930.html> - 2026-09-30 [positive] HOOD: HOOD Summit day 2: weekend stock trading, in-app AI trading agents, earnings prediction markets; shares +2% after hours - Robinhood will offer round-the-clock weekend trading of select US stocks and ETFs (pending regulatory approval) via overnight venue Bruce ATS, extending 24/5 trading that already produces about 25% of its daily volume off-hours. It also unveiled AI agents that analyse, build strategies and execute equity, options and crypto trades within user limits, perpetual futures for eligible US customers, earnings prediction markets with Cboe, and a Reddit-style community. Shares closed -0.2% then rose more than 2% after hours. <https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/robinhood-to-allow-24hour-weekend-trading-of-us-stocks-as-industry-shifts-to-wider-access-4923847> - 2026-09-30 [negative] TSLA: Tesla lines up $30bn of credit for AI and fab capex; Q3 delivery consensus 458k-466k, down 6-8% y/y - A Sept 29 filing shows a $20bn delayed-draw term loan, an $8bn five-year revolver and a $2bn 364-day revolver, earmarked for AI compute, solar cell capacity and a semiconductor fab project with SpaceX; 2026 capex is guided above $25bn versus $8.53bn in 2025 and analysts see free cash flow of about -$9.8bn. Tesla says it has no borrowings and does not plan to draw in 2026. Shares fell 1.3% to $352.84. Ahead of Friday's Q3 deliveries, estimates span 422k (Cantor) to 482k (JPMorgan), median about 458k and Bloomberg consensus 466k, all below Q3 2025's 497k after August US sales fell 26% y/y and China retail 12%. <https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/tesla-lines-up-30-billion-credit-lines-as-capex-ai-push-accelerate-4923682> - 2026-09-30 [positive] TER: Teradyne launches Magnum E2 high-speed memory tester for LPDDR6, DDR6, GDDR7 and NAND - Teradyne announced Magnum E2, a next-generation memory test system for advanced DRAM and flash interfaces aimed at AI accelerator and data-centre memory, with near-DUT architecture and NRZ, PAM3 and PAM4 signalling, integrated logic test, and scalable production or engineering configurations. It will be shown at SEMICON West Oct 13-15. No customers or availability date were named. Comes as the stock is up more than 200% in 12 months and a director sold 400 shares. <https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/teradyne-announces-magnum-e2-address-130000655.html> ## Notes ## Midday AEST tick Light run 2.5h after the 23:55 UTC run: US closed, so takes and prices are unchanged (Tue Sep 29 closes). Indicators and calendar not re-refreshed. ## Holdings / loves Checked after-hours quotes for all 14 holdings on stockanalysis.com (7:59 PM ET prints): AMZN +0.26%, AX +0.84%, BABA +0.21%, ENPH +0.09%, FIGR +0.61%, GOOGL +0.16%, LDI +3.28% (7:30 PM), META +0.62%, MRVL +0.62%, MU +0.64%, NFLX +0.41%, NVDA +0.51%, RKT +0.40%, TSM +0.16%. Only LDI cleared 1%. Asia mid-morning Wednesday (approx 01:00-02:30 UTC): Nikkei 66,392 +1.28%, Hang Seng ~24,260 -0.46%, SK Hynix KRW 1,812,000 +2.15%, TSMC 2330 TWD 2,505 +1.21%, Alibaba 9988 HKD 106.40 +0.19%, BYD 1211 HKD 74.80 -1.25%. SEC EDGAR: no 8-Ks or other new filings dated Sep 29 evening or Sep 30 for MU, NVDA, AMZN, META, NFLX, MRVL, ENPH, AX, LDI, RKT, TSM; GOOGL and BABA show only routine Form 4s dated Sep 29 (BABA also a 6-K, the HK monthly share return). Nvidia newsroom: nothing after Sep 28. Micron newsroom: nothing after Sep 15. Anthropic newsroom: Sonnet 5.5 (Sep 28) and Opus 5.5 (Sep 22) are not new; the Mashable 'Opus 5.5 launch' item in the feed is a rehash. Robinhood Summit day-1 items (weekend trading, AI agents, perps) hit wires at 23:00 UTC but are already covered by the cryptobriefing piece; day 2 has not started. Australia Senate inquiry (Oct 1): no new developments found beyond the already-covered no-show; Guardian's 'five-paragraph email' story and Capital Brief could not be opened. Could not open (blocked): nytimes.com (OpenAI ignored employee safety-testing warnings, 22:53 UTC), theguardian.com, reuters.com direct, chosun.com (Samsung/SK Hynix HBM rivalry), koreajoongangdaily, channelnews.com.au (Samsung record profit forecast), datacenterdynamics (Alibaba Cloud regions in Turkey, Finland, Netherlands), english.kyodonews.net (BYD Atto 3 EX Japan), smh.com.au, apnews.com, cnbc.com, geekwire.com (Amazon Mechanical Turk shutdown), axios.com article pages (details taken from the Axios RSS feed at api.axios.com/feed/, which I did open). Alibaba/Tencent AI-evaluation startup item (Seoul Economic Daily, 21:00 UTC) could not be located on the site. WebSearch budget was exhausted at the start of this run, so everything above came from WebFetch of quote pages, Google News RSS feeds and publisher index pages. ## Asia / macro Web search budget was exhausted at the start of this tick, so everything came from direct fetches of ABS, ABC News, FXStreet, Yahoo Finance quote pages, Investing.com, electrek, CnEVPost and stockanalysis. Levels are midday snapshots: ASX 200 8,781 (+0.9%, ABC live blog) / 8,775.80 (+0.76%, Yahoo 12:05 AEST); Nikkei 66,273 (+1.21%, 10:59 JST); Kospi 6,889 (+0.27%, 11:11 KST); Hang Seng 24,473 (-0.21%, 10:16 HKT); Shanghai 3,840 (+0.26%); ES 7,746.50 (+0.19%), NQ 30,620.50 (+0.02%) at 22:20 ET; TNX 5.26% Tuesday close, 5.242% overnight per Investing.com; USD/JPY 156.46 (-0.51%); AUD/USD 0.6968 (-0.28%); USD/KRW 1,353.28; USD/HKD 7.8453. Oil discrepancy: Yahoo BZ=F shows Brent $96.13 and Investing.com $96.29, while the ABC live blog quoted Brent +0.5% at $103.05, probably the front-month versus the continuous contract; I used the Yahoo/Investing figure. Explicit ABS-vs-consensus and the 20% November hike probability came from the ABC live blog (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-09-30/asx-markets-business-live-news/107210136) quoting Capital Economics' Abhijit Surya; the ASX RBA rate tracker page returned 404 so the pricing is not from the exchange directly. Could not open the Al Jazeera Iran live blog body (navigation only) and Reuters/CNBC blocked, so no fresh Sept 30 Iran/Hormuz headline beyond the Investing.com note on improving Saudi supply and the 40m-barrel SPR release. Keyence: the Yahoo quote page was stale (showed Tuesday close 77,980), stockanalysis gave 79,900 +0.53% at 11:15 JST, used that. SKHY ADR ratio unknown so price_usd left null; Seoul price converts to about $1,323 per ordinary share. ASML: no Wednesday pre-open news; UBS named it top European chip pick (Buy, EUR 2,350, Q3 revenue estimate EUR 12.1bn, 3% above consensus, expects FY27 growth guidance above 30%) at https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/ubs-names-top-european-chip-193056238.html. BYD: no September sales preview found; Da Han sedan 10-millionth Dynasty milestone at https://cnevpost.com/2026/09/29/byd-da-han-marks-dynasty-10-millionth-vehicle/. Other watchlist items not made news entries: AVGO-Toppan opened a 95,000 sqm FC-BGA substrate plant in Singapore for AI compute chips, production by late 2026 (https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/articles/broadcom-toppan-jv-opens-first-134153168.html); Vertiv $1.45bn UIG acquisition with up to $1.15bn earnout, Wells Fargo Overweight $340 (https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/vertiv-vrt-1-45-billion-013303501.html); BE +10.8% to $291.25 Tuesday per IBD (https://finance.yahoo.com/m/0f05df74-8e19-37cc-8a3a-5b6885fbc760/dow-jones-futures-rise-with.html); GEV +1.3% Tuesday, Barron's nuclear piece, nothing company-specific; ALAB and NET nothing new beyond covered items. Micron consensus (revenue $51.49bn, EPS $31.83, DRAM $38.2bn, NAND $12.3bn) from https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/article/micron-to-report-q4-earnings-as-memory-boom-powers-on-153230577.html; JPMorgan expects a large capital-return announcement (https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/article/micron-may-be-sitting-on-a-substantial-surprise-103953207.html). Core PCE consensus +0.2% m/m from https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/core-pce-price-index-61. Sea Limited and MercadoLibre: not checked, no company news surfaced. Tesla delivery estimate detail from https://electrek.co/2026/09/28/tesla-q3-2026-delivery-estimates-wall-street-split/.
Nothing here is financial advice. Holdings and opinions are my own; the "agent" sections are written by an automated research skill and may be wrong. Built 2026-09-30 14:45 UTC.