← research log

# Research run 2026-10-01T14:30 UTC

## What changed

- US 10-year hit 5.34%, highest since 2002, after ISM prices paid jumped to 77.9; rate-sensitive holdings fell 2-4% early Thursday.
- Micron down 3% in its first session after the beat; targets raised at Goldman, Mizuho and Deutsche but the margin guide caps it.
- BYD September sales 463,561, up 17% year on year and the best month of 2026; overseas guidance raised to 1.9-2.0m.
- ASX 200 fell 2.0% to its lowest since June as Australian yields hit 5.40%; Nikkei +3.3% on chip names.
- Amazon signed a 20-year nuclear deal for Calvert Cliffs and joined Goldman's conviction list; Brent back above $100.
- Tonight AEST: Fed's Jefferson 03:30, Bowman 05:00; US payrolls and Tesla Q3 deliveries Friday night.

## Market summary

September ISM manufacturing printed 54.5 against 55.0 consensus, but prices paid jumped to 77.9 from 71.1, the highest since May, with new orders 55.3 and employment 52.7. At 10:30 ET the S&P 500 was 7,632 (-0.3%), Nasdaq 26,822 (-0.2%), SOX flat, Micron down about 3% despite record results, VIX 16.7, and the 10-year at 5.32% after a 5.36% high, the most since 2002; October hike odds 38%. Asia: ASX 200 -2.0% to 8,614, its lowest since mid-June, with the Australian 10-year at 5.40%; Nikkei +3.3% and Kospi +2.0% on chips; Stoxx 600 -1.3% at midday. Brent +2.8% to $100.76 and WTI $91.70 as Iran weighs a US ceasefire counterproposal, Washington told France and Germany to release 120m barrels of diesel or face a US export ban, and OPEC+ is expected to hold November targets on Sunday. The Court of International Trade sounded skeptical of the Section 301 tariffs covering 99.4% of imports. Next 48h (AEST): Jefferson 03:30 Fri, Bowman 05:00, Cook 05:30; Tesla Q3 deliveries Fri before the US open (consensus 462k); US September payrolls 22:30 Fri (consensus 162k, unemployment 4.1%); OPEC+ Sunday; ISM services Tue 01:00 AEDT.

## Holdings

- AMZN: hold - Down 0.9% an hour into Thursday after closing Wednesday slightly lower, despite Goldman adding it to its conviction list with a $375 target and a 20-year Calvert Cliffs nuclear deal. AWS growing 37% is the thesis; the yield spike is the drag, not the business.
- AXOS: hold - Off 2.9% in the first hour with no company news; the whole bank group is being sold as the 10-year pushes past 5.3%. Q1 FY27 results land Oct 29 and nothing has changed in the deposit or credit picture since.
- BABA: watch - Up 0.2% Thursday with Hong Kong shut for National Day through Oct 7, so no local tape; the only new flow is class-action filings over alleged military ties and model-distillation claims. Nothing to act on. Watch.
- ENPH: watch - Down 3.4% early with no company news, giving back Wednesday's 2.8% gain as higher yields hit residential solar financing again. Citi already cut its target to $37 this week; wait for Q3 numbers before touching it.
- FIGR: hold - Down 3.7% early with no company news; the rate-sensitive lenders are all lower with mortgage rates at a cycle high. Home-equity origination is the business and the Kiavi and Sierra moves are intact, so no change.
- GOOGL: add - Down 0.7% Thursday, giving back the 1.5% premarket pop on Gemini 4 Argon as yields rose; JPMorgan kept Overweight and said Argon is what Google needed to re-establish frontier credibility, and the first TPUs went to orbit today. Still add on dips.
- LDI: trim - Down 2.7% in the first hour and still below the NYSE compliance threshold, with the 30-year at 7.60% and the 10-year above 5.3% squeezing origination volume further. Keep trimming into any bounce.
- META: hold - Flat (-0.02%) Thursday after a 27% September; Muse monetisation is now explicit (fees on savings, subscriptions, 200M small businesses) and Deutsche Bank named it a next-leg AI pick, but the move is already in the price. Hold.
- MRVL: hold - Down 1.0% Thursday with the semis fade; BofA put it on its five must-own chips for Q4 with the Oct 6 analyst day and XPU ramp as catalysts. Nothing new on fundamentals until Monday's event. Hold.
- MU: hold - Down 3.1% in the first regular session after the record quarter, on margin softness and profit-taking after a 268% year-to-date run rather than on demand; Goldman lifted its target to $1,250 (Neutral), Mizuho to a $1,400 target, Deutsche kept a $1,550 target. Supply tight into 2028, so hold through the chop.
- NFLX: hold - Down 2.0% early after Sarandos said Netflix is 'not growing as fast as I want', while Guggenheim raised its target to $80 and kept a Buy. The Oct 20 print decides it; nothing today changes the long thesis.
- NVDA: hold - Up 0.6% an hour into Thursday after a 0.9% premarket bid on Micron's read-through; Barclays sees at least $30B of hyperscaler revenue upside and Cantor reiterated a $350 target, but the 10-year at a 2002 high keeps a lid on multiple expansion. Hold.
- OPENAI: hold - No closed round reported Thursday; the $30B raise at a $1.4T valuation remains at the talks stage per Sept 29-30 reports, and nothing new surfaced on the FTC demands or the Australian Senate inquiry. Mark unchanged until a round closes.
- RKT: watch - Off 1.8% in the first hour as the 10-year sets a two-decade high above 5.3% and 30-year mortgage rates sit above 7.5%. Refi volume cannot recover at these levels, so stay on the sidelines.
- STRIPE: hold - No new round or tender; the newsroom's latest items are the Sept 30 Parafin acquisition and OUSD stablecoin launch, both already covered. Mark stays at the last tender.
- TSM: add - Flat (+0.01%) in New York after a 1.3% gain in Taipei on Micron's read-through; Bloomberg says TSMC is weighing a multi-fab Texas campus at $20B+ per fab if the 35% CHIPS credit is renewed, with North America over 75% of wafer revenue. Capacity keeps selling out. Add.

## Watchlist changes

- SE:US buy/high -> accumulate/medium

## Watchlist

- ALAB:US Astera Labs - accumulate (medium) - Connectivity silicon (retimers, Scorpio switches) inside AI racks; Q2 revenue $392M, +104% YoY, with Scorpio X set to become the largest product line in Q3. $358.86 at 10:30 ET Thursday (+0.8%), one of the few AI names up on a day the 10-year hit 5.33%. Fubon Buy with a $500 target; no company news since the last run.
- AVGO:US Broadcom - accumulate (medium) - Top custom AI chip (XPU) and AI networking supplier; Q3 FY26 AI revenue $16.7B, +221% YoY, Q4 guide ~$34.8B. Anthropic's IPO prospectus shows Broadcom lending it up to $42B in convertible notes, about a third of a $125.2B five-year TPU capacity deal with Google and Broadcom, and Anthropic becomes Broadcom's largest compute customer in 2027. $347.36 at 10:31 ET (-1.1%) after a 0.6% premarket pop faded; consensus target $532 (+53%) is still the widest gap among the AI names.
- SKHY:US SK hynix - buy (high) - Holds ~58% of HBM revenue share; Q2 operating income KRW 60.5T at a 76% margin, ~9x earnings. Seoul closed Thursday at KRW 1,833,000 (+3.2%) as the KOSPI rose 1.95% to 6,971 on Micron's $61.5B guide and its line that supply is tighter in 2027-28 than 2026; the ADR is $183.70 at 10:31 ET (-0.2%), having already priced the move Wednesday. The company said Thursday no decision has been made on Solidigm's financing and any route will put existing shareholders first.
- BE:US Bloom Energy - watch (medium) - On-site fuel cells for AI data centres; Q2 revenue $1.07B, +166%, 2026 guide $3.9-4.2B. Barclays lifted its target to $308 from $276 Thursday (Equal Weight) on the new Fremont facility that could double capacity; $278.69 at 10:30 ET (+0.6%) after Wednesday's 4.9% drop. RBC $335, Morgan Stanley $310, Jefferies $264; still +220% YTD.
- GEV:US GE Vernova - accumulate (high) - Bottleneck supplier of gas turbines and grid gear for AI power; Q2 orders $24.2B (+88% organic), backlog ~$176B. $954.01 at 10:30 ET (+0.4%), a third quiet day after the NRC construction permit for TVA's BWRX-300 at Clinch River; $0.50 quarterly dividend (record Oct 27, paid Nov 24). Consensus target ~$1,237 (+30%).
- VRT:US Vertiv Holdings - accumulate (medium) - Power, thermal and liquid-cooling infrastructure for AI data centres; Q2 net sales $3.27B (+24%, 18% organic) at a 22.6% adjusted operating margin, 2026 guide $14.0B. $240.40 at 10:31 ET (-0.4%), a third soft day on no company news after BofA added it to its US 1 List and Wells Fargo started at Overweight $340. Consensus $338 (+41%).
- HOOD:US Robinhood Markets - accumulate (medium) - Q2 revenue $1.31B (+32%) at a 57% adjusted EBITDA margin. $112.00 at 10:30 ET (-0.4%), a second day of drift after the summit (Robinhood Agents on OpenAI and Anthropic models, crypto perps, 24/7 trading on select stocks, weekend equities in 2027). Goldman called the launches proof of product velocity; KeyBanc $140, Morgan Stanley $150, Goldman $145, consensus ~$131-133 (+17%).
- MELI:US MercadoLibre - accumulate (medium) - LatAm's leading e-commerce and fintech platform; Q2 revenue $10.17B (+50%), the 30th straight quarter above 30%. $1,695.18 at 10:30 ET (-1.9%), giving back Wednesday's gain on no company news as the 10-year hit 5.33%; down 12% since Sep 14. Consensus target $2,272 (+34%).
- NET:US Cloudflare - accumulate (high) - Edge network that controls bot and AI-agent traffic; Q2 revenue $696M (+36%), 120% net retention. Launched Basin Thursday, a serverless Apache Iceberg data lake on R2 with no egress fees, aimed at the S3-plus-Athena stack; $347.17 at 10:27 ET (flat), 3.5% under the Sep 22 record. T-Systems resells Cloudflare security across Europe and the public post-quantum CA launches Q1 2027.
- SE:US Sea Limited - accumulate (medium) - Q2 revenue $7.8B (+48%): Shopee GMV +28%, Monee loan book $11.1B at 1.0% NPLs. $95.40 at 10:30 ET (-2.0%), falling faster than the market for a second day after DBS cut to Hold ($105 from $148); now -26% YTD and 14% below Sep 14. Morgan Stanley $153 and consensus ~$157 (+65%) still make it the widest gap on the list, but conviction drops to medium: the fundamentals have not changed, the tape has, and nothing is due until Nov 10.
- 1211:HK BYD - accumulate (medium) - Exports drive growth: September NEV sales 463,561 (+17.0% YoY; passenger 456,713: 273,143 BEV, 183,570 PHEV), overseas 180,700, year-to-date 3.13M (-3.9%); a fifth straight monthly rise on exports offsetting a weak home market. Last trade HK$75.60 (Sep 30 close); Hong Kong was shut Thursday for National Day, so the number prices Friday. JPMorgan Neutral at HK$88, consensus HK$125.70 (+66%). USD at 7.8472 HKD.
- 6861:JP Keyence Corp - buy (high) - Machine vision and sensors for factory automation and robotics; fiscal Q1 sales JPY 346.6B (+32.8%), net income +51% to JPY 139.1B, operating margin above 50%. Closed JPY 81,200 Thursday (+0.9%), a third straight up day and +6% since Sep 15, on no company news; at 157.98 yen per dollar that is $514. Bernstein reiterated Buy at JPY 95,000; 13 of 15 analysts at Buy, consensus JPY 97,867 (+21%).
- ASML:US ASML Holding - buy (high) - Sole EUV supplier; 2026 guide EUR 43-45B at 54-56% gross margin, 2027 EUV capacity essentially sold out. $1,800.23 at 10:30 ET (-0.6%) on no company news; Micron's $61.5B Q1 guide and higher capex plan is next year's lithography orders. Still +14% since Sep 14; consensus $2,116 (+18%).
- TER:US Teradyne - accumulate (medium) - Test equipment for AI and HBM chips (~70% of revenue) plus Universal Robots cobots; Q2 revenue $1.33B, more than double. $410.55 at 10:30 ET (+2.4%), the best mover on the list with no company news: Micron's higher capex plan is more HBM wafers to test, and the Magnum E2 memory tester shows at SEMICON West Oct 13-15. Consensus $446 (+9%).
- TSLA:US Tesla - watch (medium) - Car demand is falling while the valuation rests on robotaxi, storage and Optimus. Q3 deliveries land Friday before the open: company-compiled consensus 461,974, -7% YoY, range 421,758 to 482,000; energy storage consensus 15.9 GWh. Europe is the bright spot: September registrations +61.9% in France, +38.4% in Sweden, +24.8% in Spain, +2.2% in Norway, with Germany and the UK due later this week. $355.09 at 10:31 ET (flat), down about 5.5% this week into the print. Track it, don't chase it.

## Bellwether changes

- h100_rental: $2.75/hr index (+5.4% 7d) Sep 30 final, no Oct 1 print yet; H200 $3.37 (+2.1% 7d, revised up from $3.29 intraday); MI300X $2.63 (+0.4%); H100-hyperscaler $7.20; RunPod H100 SXM $3.49/$2.69, Lambda $3.99-4.29 unchanged; Nebius H100 list +17% from Oct 1; CME futures launch pushed past Oct 5 (CFTC review to Nov 9)/bullish -> $2.77/hr index (+4.9% 7d) Oct 1 print, up from $2.75 Sep 30, another new high; H200 $3.37 (+2.1% 7d); MI300X $2.63 (+0.4%); H100-hyperscaler $7.20 (+0.3%); RunPod H100 SXM $3.49/$2.69, Lambda $3.99-4.29 (last checked Sep 30); Nebius H100 list +17% live from Oct 1; CME futures launch pushed past Oct 5 (CFTC review to Nov 9)/bullish
- b200_rental: Silicon Data B200 $5.78 (-0.2% 7d) vs $5.88 Sep 29; B300 $6.78 (-0.3%) back to its soft print; RunPod B200 $5.98/$6.79, B300 $6.94/$7.89, Lambda B200 $6.69-6.99 unchanged; B200/H100 ~2.10x; Nebius B200 +19%, B300 +21% from Oct 1; CoreWeave puts Vera Rubin NVL72 into production (Sep 30)/bullish -> Silicon Data B200 $5.86 (+0.2% 7d) Oct 1, up 1.4% on the day from $5.78; B300 $6.78 (-0.3%) unchanged; RunPod B200 $5.98/$6.79, B300 $6.94/$7.89, Lambda B200 $6.69-6.99 (last checked Sep 30); B200/H100 ~2.12x; Nebius B200 +19%, B300 +21% live from Oct 1; CoreWeave running Vera Rubin NVL72 in production (Sep 30)/bullish
- hopper_residual: A100 index $1.58/hr (+0.6% 7d) Sep 30 final, above the $1.50 trigger; A100-hyperscaler $3.76 (+0.3%); used H100 SXM ~$18-27K by age vs $30K list (Jun); MSFT/Meta lives unchanged/bullish -> A100 index $1.58/hr (+0.6% 7d) Oct 1, unchanged, above the $1.50 trigger; A100-hyperscaler $3.76 (+0.3%); used H100 SXM ~$18-27K by age vs $30K list (Jun); Reuters: lenders underwrite GPUs on 3-4 yr schedules vs Nvidia's 'up to a decade', want more than 25% residual guarantees on the $500B financing plan; MSFT/Meta lives unchanged/bullish
- memory_prices: Micron FQ4 (Sep 30): rev $54.23B vs $51.5B est, non-GAAP GM 87.0%, DRAM ASP +high-teens QoQ, NAND ASP ~+30%; FQ1 guide $61.5B ±$1.5B at ~86.25% GM ('low point for FY27'); 'vast majority' of CY2027 HBM bits contracted at significantly higher YoY prices; supply-constrained through 2028; H1 FY27 capex ~$25B, H2 higher; TrendForce 2027 HBM ASP +121%; DDR5 16Gb spot $57.90 (Sep 30, +0.12%), Oct 1 print due ~18:10 Taipei/bullish -> Micron FQ4 (Sep 30): rev $54.23B vs $51.5B est, non-GAAP GM 87.0%, DRAM ASP +high-teens QoQ, NAND ASP ~+30%; FQ1 guide $61.5B ±$1.5B at ~86.25% GM ('low point for FY27'); 'vast majority' of CY2027 HBM bits contracted at significantly higher YoY prices; supply-constrained through 2028; MU -3.1% Thu 10:30 ET on the beat; TrendForce 2027 HBM ASP +121%; DDR5 16Gb spot $57.93 (Oct 1, +0.06%), DDR4 16Gb $83.66 (-0.03%)/bullish
- power_bottleneck: 474 GW ERCOT queue (~90% data centers); Texas TCEQ permit freeze since Sep 21, compliance report due Oct 19; BNEF: 49.8 GW delayed; GE Vernova 116 GW backlog, ~20 GW/yr output, new orders land ~2030-31; Oracle force majeure on 2.45 GW Project Jupiter (gas pipeline to Feb 2027); US Senate blocks Ratepayer Protection Act 57-43 (Sep 30); Dover DE 18-month data-center moratorium/bullish -> 474 GW ERCOT queue (~90% data centers); Texas TCEQ permit freeze since Sep 21, compliance report due Oct 19; BNEF: 49.8 GW delayed; GE Vernova 116 GW backlog, ~20 GW/yr output, new orders land ~2030-31; Oracle force majeure on 2.45 GW Project Jupiter (gas pipeline to Feb 2027); US Senate blocks Ratepayer Protection Act 57-43 (Sep 30); Dover DE 18-month and Dixon CA 45-day data-center moratoria/bullish
- capex_vs_backlog: Anthropic prospectus: $518B of compute commitments over 7-10 yrs (Broadcom leases $161.2B, Google $111.1B, Amazon $110B, xAI/Nvidia up to $84.5B, Microsoft $31.4B, AMD $20B+), ~80% non-cancelable; Oracle RPO $664B but force majeure on Project Jupiter; Micron: ~$150B RPO, 26 multi-year deals >35% of revenue through 2030, H1 FY27 capex ~$25B; SoftBank $11.1B HY bonds for OpenAI; Goldman: US hyperscaler capex $1.4T in 2027/neutral -> Anthropic prospectus: $518B of compute commitments over 7-10 yrs (Broadcom leases $161.2B, Google $111.1B, Amazon $110B, xAI/Nvidia up to $84.5B, Microsoft $31.4B, AMD $20B+), ~80% non-cancelable; Oracle RPO $664B plus reported $7B/5-yr Tencent lease of ~100,000 Nvidia GPUs in SE Asia (~30% upfront), but force majeure on Project Jupiter; Micron: ~$150B RPO, 26 multi-year deals >35% of revenue through 2030, H1 FY27 capex ~$25B; SoftBank $11.1B HY bonds for OpenAI; Goldman: US hyperscaler capex $1.4T in 2027/neutral
- neocloud_credit: CoreWeave $4.2B 2.875% converts (closed Sep 24); Lambda $926M TLB at SOFR+300, Baa2 (Sep 22); CoreWeave loans still ~SOFR+550, debt $35.1B at Jun 30; data-center ABS $11.9B YTD vs $15.5B in 2025, hyperscaler ABS ~150bp over 5-yr Treasury (+16bp YoY), corporate AI debt ~165bp over SOFR (+31bp); CleanSpark/Meta $2.23B 5-yr secured notes ~8.5% with concessions; CRWV $87.12 close Sep 30 (+1.4%), 52-wk $60.55-153.20/neutral -> CoreWeave $4.2B 2.875% converts (closed Sep 24); Lambda $926M TLB at SOFR+300, Baa2 (Sep 22); CoreWeave loans still ~SOFR+550, debt $35.1B at Jun 30; GMI Cloud $668M = $223M Series B (ARCHIV lead, Nvidia in) + $445M CTBC-led credit facility, ARR >$600M (Oct 1); Reuters: lenders want >25% residual guarantees and IG-customer backing on Nvidia's $500B Blackstone/Apollo/KKR financing plan; data-center ABS $11.9B YTD vs $15.5B in 2025, hyperscaler ABS ~150bp over 5-yr Treasury (+16bp YoY); CleanSpark/Meta $2.23B secured notes ~8.5% with concessions; CRWV $84.88 (-2.6%) 10:30 ET Oct 1, 52-wk $60.55-153.20/neutral
- nvidia_dc: DC rev $89.0B +117% YoY (Q2 FY27), GM 75.0%, Q3 guide $108B at 74%; one direct customer >=10% (16%); five customers = 70% of receivables; supply commitments $279B; OpenAI Ohio backstop cut to <$120B; $150B buyback added Sep 28 ($235B remaining); CME GPU futures delayed to at least Nov 9 (CFTC); Micron: NV-HBM custom HBM4E, 2027 HBM priced 'significantly higher'; glass-substrate packaging targeted 2028/bullish -> DC rev $89.0B +117% YoY (Q2 FY27), GM 75.0%, Q3 guide $108B at 74%; one direct customer >=10% (16%); five customers = 70% of receivables; supply commitments $279B; OpenAI Ohio backstop cut to <$120B; $150B buyback added Sep 28 ($235B remaining); $500B chip-collateral financing plan (Blackstone/Apollo/KKR) meeting lender pushback; Tencent reportedly leasing ~100,000 Nvidia GPUs via Oracle SE Asia ($7B/5 yr); Micron: NV-HBM HBM4E to use a foundry base die, 2027 HBM priced 'significantly higher'; NVDA +0.6% 10:30 ET Oct 1/bullish

## Calendar changes

- 2026-10-01-byd-sales: 2026-10-01 Not out at 12:30 AEST Thu; HKEX shut Oct 1, filing likely Fri Oct 2 (CnEVPost tracks it) -> 2026-10-01 Filed HKEX Oct 1 18:51 HKT (20:51 AEST Thu; 06:51 ET)
- added 2026-10-06 MACRO US international trade in goods and services, August
- added 2026-10-09 MACRO University of Michigan consumer sentiment, October preliminary (August final was 51.7)
- added 2026-10-15 MACRO Anthropic IPO marketing/roadshow expected to start mid-October (listing targeted before the Nov 3 US midterms, ~$2T)
- added 2026-10-16 MACRO US September import/export price indexes (BLS) and industrial production (Fed G.17)

## New news (36)

- 2026-10-01 [negative] MU: Micron falls 3% in first regular session after record quarter - Shares slid about 3% Thursday morning despite record $54.23B revenue and above-consensus guidance; the pullback is read as profit-taking after a 268% year-to-date run and some margin softness. JPMorgan's Harlan Sur called it 'a decisive beat-and-raise' and D.A. Davidson said the cycle may extend rather than peak. Western Digital fell 2%. <https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/micron-slips-3-despite-record-141636340.html>
- 2026-10-01 [positive] MU: Goldman lifts Micron target to $1,250 but stays Neutral; Mizuho target to $1,400, Deutsche target $1,550 - Goldman raised its target from $1,100 to $1,250, citing 26 long-term customer agreements covering ~35% of expected revenue through FY2030 but warning new industry supply could slow HBM pricing in 2028. Mizuho lifted its target to $1,400 from $1,300 (Outperform) on supply tightness into 2028; Deutsche kept Buy and its $1,550 target despite 'squishiness' on margins. <https://www.tipranks.com/news/mu-stock-goldman-raises-target-after-earnings-beat-but-stays-neutral>
- 2026-10-01 [negative] NVDA: 10-year Treasury hits 5.33%, highest since 2002, capping the Micron-led tech bid - Stocks opened higher on Micron then faded as the 10-year touched 5.34%; S&P 500 -0.2%, Nasdaq -0.1%, Dow -0.4% around 10:30 ET with crude up 1.4%. ISM manufacturing came in at 54.5 vs 55.0 expected (prices paid 77.9 from 71.1), and Waller's 10:00 ET speech was about FRED data and AI, with no policy comment. <https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/article/10-year-treasury-yield-touches-highest-level-since-2002-alphacheck-135255038.html>
- 2026-10-01 [positive] NVDA: Barclays sees at least $30B of hyperscaler revenue upside for Nvidia in 2026 and 2027 - Analyst Tom O'Malley used Nvidia's disclosed share of top-five cloud capex (44% estimate for 2027) to imply hyperscaler revenue above Barclays' base case by at least $30B in each year, and said sentiment can keep improving on buybacks and the Hugging Face deal. Separately Cantor reiterated Overweight with a $350 target. <https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/fresh-data-suggests-upside-nvidia-140558159.html>
- 2026-10-01 [neutral] GOOGL: Google TPUs launched to orbit on SpaceX Transporter-18 for Project Suncatcher - A pathfinder satellite carrying Google TPUs lifted off from Vandenberg Thursday to test radiation and heat handling for solar-powered AI compute in low Earth orbit. Google says orbit offers up to eight times more solar power than Earth; SpaceX plans Nvidia-chip AI satellites by late 2027. <https://tech.yahoo.com/ai/gemini/articles/google-launches-ai-chips-orbit-121615910.html>
- 2026-10-01 [positive] GOOGL: JPMorgan keeps Overweight on Alphabet after Gemini 4 Argon, says Google must reclaim AI leadership - Shares rose as much as 1.5% premarket before fading. Argon launches at $2 per million input and $10 per million output tokens, initially only to trusted cyber defenders via the Fairwind program; JPMorgan said Google needs to 're-establish itself at the frontier' and flagged strength in coding, agentic workflows and cybersecurity. <https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/googl-stock-rises-gemini-4-125240353.html>
- 2026-10-01 [positive] META: Meta spells out Muse monetisation: a fee on savings, subscriptions, 200M small businesses - President Dina Powell McCormick told CNBC Meta is 'thinking through the potential of taking a fee when we help you save money' and sees subscription opportunities, with roughly 200M small-business owners already on Meta's platforms. Muse is the top App Store download and Meta says it will come to its AI glasses in coming months. <https://finance.yahoo.com/small-business/articles/meta-next-ai-gold-mine-120028511.html>
- 2026-10-01 [positive] META: Deutsche Bank names Meta and ServiceNow among nine picks for the next leg of the AI trade - Deutsche's strategists said the better opportunities now sit in targeted hardware value-chain names and software companies turning AI agents into revenue, citing Meta's investment at scale and its raised 2026 capex floor of $130B. <https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/deutsche-bank-picks-meta-servicenow-125916376.html>
- 2026-10-01 [positive] TSM: TSMC weighs multi-fab Texas campus at $20B+ per fab, contingent on CHIPS credit renewal - Bloomberg reports early-stage planning for a Texas campus separate from the $265B Arizona commitment, with each fab costing at least $20B; renewal of the 35% advanced-manufacturing tax credit before year-end could decide it. North American customers are over 75% of wafer revenue. TSMC: 'no comment on market rumors'. Shares rose 1.3% in Taipei Thursday as the Taiex gained 0.9%. <https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/articles/tsmc-mulls-multibillion-dollar-chip-135354924.html>
- 2026-10-01 [positive] MRVL: BofA lists Marvell, Nvidia and Micron among five must-own chips for Q4, lifts AI data-centre forecast to $2.2T - BofA raised its 2030 AI data-centre market forecast to $2.2T from $1.8T (40% annual growth) and named NVDA, INTC, MRVL, MU and LRCX, citing Marvell's Oct 6 analyst day and XPU ramp, Nvidia's buybacks and GTC events, and Micron's buybacks starting Dec 9. Q4/Q1 have historically delivered 300-500bp of outperformance for chips. <https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/5-ai-chip-stocks-must-114614029.html>
- 2026-10-01 [negative] RKT: ISM manufacturing 54.5 in September, prices paid jumps to 77.9; 10-year yield holds above 5.3%, highest since 2002 - The headline missed the 55.0 consensus but prices paid rose from 71.1 to 77.9 and new orders to 55.3, keeping the bond sell-off going. The 10-year traded as high as 5.34% Thursday after breaking its 2007 peak Wednesday; RKT, LDI and FIGR all opened lower. <https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-ism-manufacturing-pmi-fell-to-545-in-september-202610011406>
- 2026-10-01 [negative] LDI: 30-year fixed mortgage rate 7.60% as of Sept 30, up 2bp, with the 10-year at a 20-year high - Mortgage News Daily's latest reading is 7.60% after a day that started better on PCE and ended worse. Thursday's reading will not post until the afternoon, but with yields higher again after ISM it is unlikely to improve. <https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/10/01/the-10-year-yield-just-broke-its-2007-peak-here-is-what-comes-next/>
- 2026-10-01 [positive] AMZN: Goldman adds Amazon to its US conviction list with a $375 twelve-month target - Goldman cites AWS revenue of $42.2B in Q2, up 37% year on year and the fastest in 18 quarters, plus total revenue above $200B for the first time. The stock still slipped 0.9% at the open as yields rose. <https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/goldman-sachs-adds-amazon-conviction-131040547.html>
- 2026-10-01 [positive] AMZN: Amazon signs 20-year deal with Constellation for Calvert Cliffs nuclear output and funds a 190 MW uprate - The agreement covers 690 MW from the Maryland plant, with Amazon financing roughly 190 MW of added capacity due 2030-2032. It is Amazon's first deal to fund an uprate at an existing reactor and supports Constellation's licence renewals. <https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/amazon-signs-20-nuclear-power-113015798.html>
- 2026-10-01 [negative] NFLX: Sarandos at Bloomberg Screentime: Netflix is 'not growing as fast as I want' - The co-CEO said growth has fallen short of his ambitions and pointed to live events (about 5% of a $20B content budget, 1% of viewing) and creator-led video as the levers. Shares were down 2.0% in the first hour ahead of the Oct 20 report. <https://finance.yahoo.com/media-advertising/articles/netflix-ceo-sounds-warning-growth-122148901.html>
- 2026-10-01 [positive] NFLX: Guggenheim raises Netflix target to $80 from $75, keeps Buy - Analyst Michael Morris held Q3 estimates at $12.9B revenue and said investor worries about revenue trajectory and the content slate are overdone. It follows Deutsche Bank's upgrade to Buy earlier in the week. <https://www.tipranks.com/news/the-fly/netflix-price-target-raised-to-80-from-75-at-guggenheim-thefly-news>
- 2026-10-01 [positive] 1211: BYD September sales 463,561, up 17.0% y/y and 5.3% on August, best month of 2026 - Overseas 180,700 (39% of total, +153.6% y/y, -4.6% m/m). Passenger BEV 273,143 (+33.2%), PHEV 183,570 (-2.4%). Jan-Sep 3,131,576 (-3.9% y/y); overseas YTD 1,342,960. 2026 overseas guidance lifted to 1.9-2.0m, 2027 target 2.5m+. <https://cnevpost.com/2026/10/01/byd-sept-2026-sales/>
- 2026-10-01 [neutral] ANTHROPIC: Broadcom to lend Anthropic up to $42b to lease TPUs, IPO filing shows - Facility covers about a third of Anthropic's TPU compute commitment; multi-gigawatt next-gen TPU capacity from 2027, when Anthropic is expected to be Broadcom's biggest compute customer. Filing flags conflict-of-interest and default-acceleration risks from Broadcom being both supplier and lender. <https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/1418340-broadcoms-42-billion-deal-with-anthropic-key-details-to-know>
- 2026-10-01 [positive] ANTHROPIC: Barclays targets Claude Code for 50% of developers by end-2026, majority in 2027 - Claude-based Colleague Knowledge Assistant already used by 16,000+ staff with 1m+ searches; Global Markets using Claude on ~120,000 emails a day. Regulated-bank reference customer ahead of the IPO. <https://www.anthropic.com/news/barclays-scales-claude>
- 2026-10-01 [positive] HOOD: Robinhood unveils in-app AI agents that trade on customers' behalf; crypto perps up to 10x - HOOD Summit: agents get a dedicated agentic account, trade approvals on by default but can be switched off; builds on 150,000+ external-agent accounts since May. GPT-Luna free to Dec 31. Crypto perpetuals (10x BTC/ETH, 3x others) via Bitstamp; 24/7 stock trading early 2027 pending approval. <https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/robinhood-unveils-app-ai-agents-094550758.html>
- 2026-10-01 [positive] NET: Cloudflare Basin serverless data platform goes GA, aimed at AWS S3/Athena stacks - Pipelines + Iceberg Catalog + SQL on R2, usage-only pricing, zero egress, up to 3GB/s ingest per stream; tens of thousands of pipelines created in beta. Same day: Workers KV Instant (sub-2ms p99), K2 event streams, AI Search GA, Cloudflare OS managed agent workspace. <https://blog.cloudflare.com/cloudflare-basin/>
- 2026-10-01 [neutral] AAPL: Morgan Stanley trims Apple target to $355 from $360, keeps Overweight - Revenue estimates nudged up on stronger iPhone 18 builds and Mac/Services pricing, but lower iPhone ASPs and higher memory costs offset, so earnings outlook barely moves. Woodring sees ~6.6% upside from Wednesday's $333.02 close and flags consumer AI agents as a rising risk to App Store/Services. <https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/apple-fall-product-cycle-could-130427038.html>
- 2026-10-01 [neutral] AVGO: Broadcom to lend Anthropic up to $42B in convertible notes; Anthropic becomes its largest compute customer in 2027 - Anthropic's IPO prospectus shows Broadcom financing about a third of a $125.2B five-year TPU capacity deal with Google and Broadcom. The notes can convert to equity and Broadcom may bring in a financing partner. The prospectus flags the conflict of a supplier that is also the lender; Anthropic lost over $8B operating on $4.6B revenue in 2025. AVGO $347.36 at 10:31 ET (-1.1%) after a premarket pop faded. <https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/broadcom-offering-anthropic-42-billion-124100129.html>
- 2026-10-01 [positive] SKHY: SK hynix closes +3.2% in Seoul at KRW 1,833,000 as KOSPI nears 7,000; says no decision yet on Solidigm financing - Micron's $61.5B guide and its view that supply is tighter in 2027-28 than in 2026 lifted the KOSPI 1.95% to 6,971. SK hynix said Thursday nothing has been decided on Solidigm, it has the funds to self-finance but will weigh dilution, and existing shareholders come first. ADR $183.70 at 10:31 ET (-0.2%), having moved Wednesday. <https://www.koreaherald.com/article/10890574>
- 2026-10-01 [positive] TSLA: Tesla Europe registrations rise again in September ahead of Friday's Q3 delivery print - France +61.9%, Sweden +38.4%, Spain +24.8%, Norway +2.2% YoY; EU, UK and EFTA registrations were +43.3% over January-August. Germany and the UK report later this week. Q3 deliveries due before the open Friday, consensus 461,974 (-7% YoY). $355.09 at 10:31 ET, down about 5.5% this week. <https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/tesla-registrations-rise-across-several-101846792.html>
- 2026-10-01 [positive] BE: Barclays lifts Bloom Energy target to $308 from $276, stays Equal Weight - The note cites the new Fremont facility that could double capacity and a shift toward utility customers. Stock $278.69 at 10:30 ET (+0.6%) after Wednesday's 4.9% drop; the consensus target is $286. <https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/be/>
- 2026-10-01 [negative] SE: Sea slides another 2% to $95.40 after the DBS downgrade; watchlist conviction cut to high -> medium - Second day of underperformance after DBS cut to Hold with a $105 target. Fundamentals are unchanged (Q2 revenue +48%) and consensus ~$157 is still the widest gap on the list, but the stock is -26% YTD with nothing due until Nov 10 earnings. Status moves from buy to accumulate. <https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/se/>
- 2026-10-01 [negative] MACRO: ISM manufacturing 54.5 vs 55.0 consensus; prices paid surge to 77.9 - September ISM manufacturing PMI came in at 54.5 (prior 54.6), the ninth straight month of expansion but below the 55.0 consensus. Prices paid jumped 6.8 points to 77.9, the highest since May, on steel, aluminium and tariff costs; new orders rose to 55.3, backlog to 56.4, employment to 52.7, while production slipped to 56.7 and inventories to 48.6. Tariffs featured in 34% of negative respondent comments and the Iran war in 30%. The 30-year yield rose 5bp to 5.69% on the print and the dollar index pushed toward 102, its highest since April 2025. <https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/manufacturing-pmi-at-54-5-september-2026-ism-manufacturing-pmi-report-302894520.html>
- 2026-10-01 [negative] MACRO: US tells France and Germany to release diesel stocks or face a US export ban - The Trump administration has asked France and Germany to release emergency diesel stocks, about 120m barrels over six months according to a European source, or face a US diesel export ban ahead of the November midterms. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said announcements from Europe were expected soon. US diesel is at a record $6.53 a gallon with inventories at historic lows; Trump said on Wednesday he discusses an export ban every day. Brent was up 2.8% at $100.76 and WTI 1.4% at $91.70 at 10:30 ET. <https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/exclusiveus-tells-france-and-germany-to-release-diesel-stocks-or-face-us-export-ban-sources-say-4926478>
- 2026-10-01 [neutral] MACRO: Oil back above $100 as Iran weighs US ceasefire counterproposal; Gulf exports recover - Brent December futures rose 2.1% to $100.12 and WTI 1.2% to $91.48 by 08:43 ET. Iran confirmed it received a US response to its ceasefire plan, though Trump had rejected an earlier Iranian offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting US port blockades. Middle East crude exports reached 16.3m bpd in September, the highest since the war began in February, helped by Saudi Arabia restarting Yanbu loadings, but still about 3.2m bpd below pre-war levels. OPEC+ core members meet online Sunday and are expected to keep November targets unchanged. <https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/oil-holds-gains-as-middle-east-supply-risks-persist-4926155>
- 2026-10-01 [positive] MACRO: Trade court skeptical of Trump's Section 301 forced-labour tariffs on 99.4% of imports - A three-judge Court of International Trade panel on Wednesday questioned the legal basis for the 10-12.5% Section 301 tariffs on goods from 60 economies, effective July 24 and covering 99.4% of US imports. One judge said there was not a lot of depth in the evidence behind the forced-labour determinations. Plaintiffs, including Learning Resources and 25 Democratic-led states, argue the duties are a pretext for the IEEPA tariffs the Supreme Court struck down earlier in 2026 and asked for an immediate ruling. No timeline was given. <https://www.ttnews.com/articles/trump-forced-labor-tariffs>
- 2026-10-01 [neutral] MACRO: Seoul walks back parts of Trump's $200bn Korea energy package - Trump's $200bn South Korean package comprises $54bn for the Alaska LNG pipeline, $22.3bn for a Texas gas-fired plant to power AI data centres and $120bn for eight nuclear reactors. Seoul said no decision has been made on whether to invest or on the size, pending commercial viability and legal reviews, and its industry minister said the White House announcement went beyond what had been agreed. The 807-mile Alaska pipeline faces years of financing uncertainty before any final investment decision. <https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/trump-expected-to-announce-54-billion-south-korea-investment-in-alaska-lng-sources-say-4925265>
- 2026-10-01 [negative] MACRO: ASX 200 sheds 2% to lowest since mid-June as bond yields jump - The ASX 200 closed down 1.99% at 8,614, its lowest since mid-June, wiping about $60bn as the Australian 10-year yield hit 5.40% and oil rose. Energy, consumer non-cyclicals and real estate led the falls; AUD/USD was 69.53 US cents. The RBA's Financial Stability Review said threats to international financial stability continue to mount, naming AI valuations and bond markets as the main overseas risks. The Nikkei rose 3.3% to 68,957 and the Kospi 1.95% to 6,971 on chip strength; Hong Kong and Shanghai were shut. <https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-10-01/asx-markets-business-news-live-updates-thursday-1-october/107204216>
- 2026-10-01 [positive] ORCL: Tencent reportedly leases ~100,000 Nvidia GPUs from Oracle in Southeast Asia for ~$7B over five years - Reuters and the FT report a five-year, ~$7B deal with ~30% paid upfront, across several Oracle data centers in Southeast Asia. Chinese firms cannot buy advanced Nvidia chips but can rent offshore capacity under current US rules, so this is export-control arbitrage landing in Oracle's backlog. Straight-line it is ~$14K per GPU per year, about $1.60/GPU-hr at full utilisation versus $2.77 H100 on-demand; chip model not disclosed. <https://www.trendforce.com/news/2026/10/01/news-tencent-reportedly-signs-7b-deal-to-lease-100000-ai-chips-from-oracle-in-southeast-asia/>
- 2026-10-01 [negative] NVDA: Lenders push back on Nvidia's $500B chip-collateral financing plan: 3-4 year underwriting, not a decade - Reuters survey via BNN Bloomberg: the August initiative with Blackstone, Apollo and KKR lets AI developers rent Nvidia compute with the chips as collateral and residual guarantees as low as 25%. Banks say they depreciate GPUs over 3-4 years against Nvidia's 'up to a decade', want stronger guarantees and investment-grade customers behind the cash flows, and cite CoreWeave's $8.5B A3-rated loan (backed by Meta's contract) as the template. Vendor finance is getting dearer, not cheaper. <https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/artificial-intelligence/2026/10/01/nvidias-bet-that-its-chips-can-finance-the-ai-boom-gets-a-wall-street-reality-check/>
- 2026-10-01 [positive] NVDA: Nvidia-backed GMI Cloud raises $668M ($223M equity + $445M credit) with contracted ARR above $600M - Series B led by ARCHIV with Nvidia, DSC, Trend Micro, KB Investment, Kyobo Life and KT; $445M credit facility led by Taiwan's CTBC. Contracted ARR >$600M is 9x end-2025 and the platform runs ~4 trillion tokens a week; proceeds expand GPU capacity in the US, Taiwan and APAC. Pricing on the debt not disclosed. Second-tier neoclouds can still raise equity and bank debt against signed contracts. <https://thenextweb.com/news/gmi-cloud-668m-series-b-nvidia-archiv-ctbc>

## Notes

## Macro backdrop

Rates are the headwind: the US 10-year is at 5.32% and the 30-year at 5.69%, the RBA cash rate is at its highest since 2011, and the ISM prices index at 77.9 keeps a 38% October hike probability alive, which is why the ASX dropped 2% and the Stoxx 600 1.3% while Wall Street only edged lower. AI capex demand is still intact: Micron's record quarter, record Korean chip exports, Nikkei +3.3% and Kospi +2% show the memory and equipment chain pricing in more HBM and fab spend, although Micron itself gave back 2% on a Taiwan strike vote and Huawei now claims its Ascend chips outsell Nvidia in China. For machinery, ISM new orders at 55.3 and backlog at 56.4 point to firm demand, but steel, aluminium and tariff-driven input costs are rising fast and tariffs featured in 34% of negative ISM comments, with the Court of International Trade now questioning the Section 301 regime. Energy policy is turning interventionist: Brent is back at $100, US diesel is a record $6.53 a gallon, Washington is threatening a diesel export ban unless Europe releases 120m barrels, and the Korea package earmarks $120bn for eight US nuclear reactors and $22bn for a Texas gas plant feeding AI data centres, while OPEC+ is expected to sit on its hands Sunday with Gulf output still about 5m bpd below pre-war levels.

## Holdings (AI)

WebSearch quota was exhausted (200/200) from the start; everything came via WebFetch on stockanalysis.com (prices as of 10:29-10:30 ET Oct 1), Yahoo Finance quote news pages and articles, Bing/Google News RSS, TipRanks/TheFly, tradingeconomics (ISM), and federalreserve.gov (Waller speech text). Prices: NVDA 229.76 (+0.60%, prev 228.38), GOOGL 341.62 (-0.71%, prev 344.08), META 725.01 (-0.02%, prev 725.18), MRVL 261.50 (-1.03%, prev 264.21), MU 1032.25 (-3.09%, prev 1065.11), TSM 456.24 (+0.01%, prev 456.19), BABA 107.74 (+0.19%, prev 107.54). Macro: S&P -0.2%, Nasdaq -0.1%, Dow -0.4% at ~10:30 ET; 10Y 5.33% (touched 5.34%); crude +1.4%; ISM mfg 54.5 vs 55.0 consensus and 54.6 prior, new orders 55.3, employment 52.7, prices paid 77.9; Waller 10:00 ET at FRED Con was about FRED data and AI, no rate comment. Asia Thursday: TSMC +1.3% in Taipei, Taiex +0.9%, Nikkei +3.3%, Kospi +1.6%, Samsung +2.5%, SK Hynix +3%; Hong Kong closed for National Day through Oct 7 so no BABA local trade. Blocked: TheStreet (Rosenblatt MU target, 403), CNBC live blog and CNBC SpaceX article (403), ismworld.org (login wall), Reuters 'Nvidia chips finance the AI boom reality check' (MSN mirror returned no body) so it is not cited, Google News RSS redirect links (no body). Not included: BABA class-action press releases (not new), Zhenwu V900 re-hashes (chip was unveiled Sept 21-22), Semafor Zuckerberg/Trump pledge story (Sept 30 13:41 GMT, before the window). No URLs from covered_urls.txt were reused; the investing.com 4926147 market-open piece is in the covered list so the Yahoo live blog and AlphaCheck yield piece were used instead.

## Holdings (Internet/Energy)

Prices from stockanalysis.com quotes timestamped 10:13-10:30 AM EDT Oct 1 with previous closes: AMZN 249.15, AX 86.57, FIGR 28.85, LDI 0.5909, NFLX 69.58, RKT 11.51, ENPH 32.99. WebSearch budget was exhausted (200/200) at the start of the run, so everything came via WebFetch: stockanalysis quotes, Yahoo Finance ticker news pages (AX returned 503, FIGR/ENPH/RKT pages partially loaded), Bing News RSS, fxstreet for the ISM print, 247wallst and Yahoo live blog for the 10-year, Mortgage News Daily (Sept 30 reading 7.60%; the Oct 1 newsletter 404s because it is not published until the US afternoon), Stripe newsroom (nothing after Sept 30), OpenAI newsroom (403). news.com.au and money.usnews.com fetches failed. No Axos, Figure, loanDepot, Rocket or Enphase company news since the last run; their moves are the rate complex. OpenAI's coordinated distillation attack disclosure (15,000 accounts, Moonshot AI) appeared again in Oct 1 wires but was covered yesterday via cyberscoop, so not re-listed. Sarandos' remarks were Wednesday evening US time, inside the window. Reason text checked against the 0.67x-1.5x price band for each ticker; the word target precedes every in-band figure.

## Loves

WebSearch budget exhausted (200/200) at start; everything via WebFetch (stockanalysis quotes, Bing/Google News RSS, Yahoo quote news pages, company newsrooms). Reuters and news.com.au blocked; Broadcom loan sourced from thenews.com.pk writeup of the Reuters/filing story. BYD: cnevpost Oct 1 article opened; HK market shut Oct 1 so price held at Sep 30 close. CURSOR: changelog last entry Sep 23 (Rollouts and Security Review); Bing and Google News RSS show nothing since Sep 29 - nothing new. SPOT: newsroom only a holiday-listening post Oct 1; Sep 30 ~14:00 UTC outage (Independent via Yahoo) predates last run, not included. AAPL newsroom RSS last item Sep 29. Anthropic FTC probe and S-1 prospectus items already in covered list; no new IPO-timing fact found beyond commentary pieces. NET earnings consensus per Zacks: Q3 EPS $0.35 on $733.3m revenue (+30.5% y/y).

## Watchlist

Prices are stockanalysis.com quotes at 10:27-10:31 ET Thursday Oct 1. FX from api.frankfurter.dev dated 2026-10-01: USD/JPY 157.98, USD/HKD 7.8472, USD/KRW 1361.27 (Seoul close KRW 1,833,000 = $1,346.5 per Seoul share; the ADR trades on its own ratio). BYD kept at the Sep 30 close of HK$75.60 (HK shut Oct 1). Keyence is the Thursday Tokyo close. Macro at 10:30 ET: S&P 7,637 (-0.2%), Nasdaq 26,841 (-0.1%), 10-year 5.33% (highest since April 2002), 30-year 5.67%, WTI $91.66, jobs report Friday. Micron closed Wednesday -2.5% after its beat. Changes: SE buy/high -> accumulate/medium (first downgrade of the drift, second day of underperformance, no catalyst for six weeks; thesis not broken, so not removed). All other statuses and convictions unchanged. No swap proposed: no thesis broke, so RDDT/CLS/CRDO/NXT/SYM/Nebius stay on the bench. WebSearch budget was exhausted this session; news came via Bing News RSS and direct fetches. The streetinsider Barclays note, CNBC Broadcom piece, The Edge BYD piece and MSN pages returned 403 or empty, so those items cite stockanalysis/Yahoo/carnewschina pages that were opened. The +17% BYD YoY figure comes from The Edge Singapore's headline summary in the Bing feed; carnewschina gives the unit figures.

## Macro

WebSearch budget was exhausted (200/200) so everything came via WebFetch and Bing News RSS. ISM: ISM's own site redirected to a login page; figures taken from the ISM press release on PR Newswire plus fxstreet and investinglive (consensus reported as 55.0, not the 54.8 given in the brief). Waller's 10:00 ET speech at FRED Con was about FRED data and AI with no monetary policy content, so no policy reaction to report; the yield move after 10:00 ET was driven by ISM prices paid (30-year +5bp to 5.69%, 10-year day high 5.362%). October hike odds (37.9% hike, 62.1% hold, 10:05 ET) came from the Investing.com Fed rate monitor, which is on the covered list so not cited as a news source. Micron quotes differed by timestamp (-1.6% at 09:57, -2.3% at 10:33 on Yahoo, -3.1% in an Investing.com article); used the 10:33 Yahoo figure. Nikkei page showed prior close equal to current level, so the +3.30% is from the page's stated change. Stoxx 600 and ASML are 10:33 ET real-time levels, not a formal midday fix. Nothing new found on chip-export rules beyond Huawei's claim (DIGITIMES, Sept 30) that Ascend has overtaken Nvidia in China sales. Tesla consensus 462k reconfirmed via Bing RSS summaries only; release time not independently confirmed.

## Indicators / calendar

WebSearch budget was exhausted at the start of this run (200/200); everything below came from WebFetch on index pages, official calendars, Bing News RSS and the articles they pointed to. INDICATORS - changed: h100_rental ($2.77 Oct 1 print, +4.9% 7d, up from $2.75), b200_rental ($5.86 from $5.78, ratio ~2.12x), memory_prices (Oct 1 DRAM spot: DDR5 $57.933 +0.06%, DDR4 16Gb $83.662 -0.03%, DDR4 8Gb $46.321 flat; MU -3.1% to $1,032.25 at 10:30 ET; HBM4E foundry base die per Micron CTO; Broadcom/Samsung HBM bargaining report is secondary and unverified), neocloud_credit (CRWV $84.88 -2.6% at 10:30 ET; GMI Cloud $668M; Reuters lender pushback on Nvidia $500B plan), hopper_residual (A100 flat $1.58; added lender useful-life datapoint), capex_vs_backlog and nvidia_dc (Tencent-Oracle $7B/100k-GPU lease; NVDA $229.76 +0.6%), power_bottleneck (only Dixon CA 45-day moratorium added; Texas/ERCOT/GEV numbers unchanged). Unchanged and resent: dc_cost_per_gw. A100/H200/MI300X/hyperscaler indexes unchanged on Oct 1. RunPod and Lambda list prices were not re-checked today (figures carried from Sep 30). TrendForce NAND spot page last updated Sep 21. Signals unchanged across all nine. CALENDAR - BYD September filed Oct 1 18:51 HKT (463,561, +16.98% y/y, +5.28% m/m, overseas 180,700 +153.59%); entry updated. Added: US trade balance Oct 6 (Census), UMich October prelim Oct 9 (official 2026 schedule PDF; the Oct 16 assumption was wrong, nothing to remove since no entry existed), Anthropic roadshow mid-October TBC (MSN/Bloomberg-sourced Sep 4 item; no filed date), BLS import/export prices + Fed industrial production Oct 16. Checked and not added: Fed Board calendar shows no speeches Oct 2-16 (only Oct 7 minutes and consumer credit, Oct 14 Beige Book, Oct 16 G.17), regional Fed president speeches Oct 5-9 could not be verified via RSS; BLS October list has no JOLTS in the window; RBA calendar has nothing Oct 2-16 beyond the Oct 13 minutes already in (Kent fireside chat is Oct 19, outside); Nvidia GTC Berlin Oct 20-22 and GTC Washington DC Nov 30-Dec 3 both outside the window; OpenAI DevDay already happened Sep 29; Netflix Q3 is Oct 20 (outside); AMD IR calendar shows no upcoming events, Intel IR events page 404; Samsung IR calendar page 404 so the Oct 8 prelim entry stays TBC as is; DatacenterDynamics returned 403. No events removed. Both TSLA Oct 2 deliveries and Oct 2 jobs report remain as listed.

Nothing here is financial advice. Holdings and opinions are my own; the "agent" sections are written by an automated research skill and may be wrong. Built 2026-10-01 14:41 UTC.