← research log

# Research run 2026-10-08T00:35 UTC

## What changed

- 10-year yield hit 5.365% Wednesday, highest since 2002; S&P 500 and Nasdaq slipped 0.2% from Tuesday's records.
- Marvell targets $70-90B revenue in FY31; shares jumped about 6% on investor day Oct 6.
- Samsung forecasts record Q3 operating profit of 107.4T won on HBM4; Micron rose 4% Wednesday.
- Fed minutes: all backed September's hike, split on more. December hike odds about 85%, October about 17%.
- Pentagon says it has stopped using Anthropic products, a new IPO risk; investor session Oct 14.
- Next: TSMC September sales Thu, then ASML bookings and US CPI on Oct 14.

## Market summary

US stocks ended Oct 7 slightly lower after Tuesday's records: S&P 500 7,801.77 (-0.22%, +1.0% since Oct 2), Nasdaq 27,538.69 (-0.22%, +1.3%), Dow 51,179.87. The 10-year hit 5.365% on Oct 7, the highest since April 2002 (30-year 5.732%), then eased to about 5.28-5.31% after a $39B note auction; the Fed minutes showed all participants backed the September hike to 3.75-4.00% but split between 1-2 more hikes and an immediate pause, and futures price only about 20% for another hike on Oct 28 after 3.0% core PCE and 29K payrolls. Brent settled at $100.20 and WTI $88.28 (-1.3%); ISM services prices paid hit 74.0, the highest since July 2022, and OPEC+ held November output flat on Oct 4. AI hardware news remains strong (Samsung Q3 profit 107.4T won on Oct 8, Marvell's $70-90B FY31 target on Oct 6) while GPU rental indexes keep making highs (H100 $2.81), so the pressure on AI/Internet names is the cost of capital rather than demand. DXY and the China reopening reaction on Oct 8 were not verified (DXY was 101.92 on Oct 2). Next: TSMC September sales and China's reopening Thu Oct 8; ASML bookings and US CPI Wed Oct 14 (AEDT Thu morning); TSMC Q3 results Oct 15.

## Holdings

- AMZN: hold - Up about 3.3% since Oct 2 and 1.4% on Oct 7 as the market slipped from records; Tigress raised its target to $385 on AI, cloud and ads. Prime Big Deal Days ran Oct 6-7 with no results published yet, and Q3 earnings are due around Oct 29, so no change.
- AXOS: hold - Down 1.4% since Oct 2 and 1.5% on Oct 7 as the 10-year yield hit 24-year highs. No company news; fiscal Q1 results are due Oct 29 after the close, so nothing to act on before then.
- BABA: watch - Up 1.1% since Oct 2 but down 2.1% on Oct 7, after a 4.7% jump on Oct 5 on AI cloud momentum (cloud and AI revenue up 45% last quarter). The class-action lead-plaintiff deadline passed Oct 5 with no ruling; wait for China policy and the Nov 24 earnings.
- ENPH: watch - Flat over the period (down 1.2% on Oct 7) with more target cuts: Barclays to $44, Oppenheimer to $55, and Deutsche Bank named it a short-term sell into Q3 results on safe-harbor revenue risk. Stay on watch until the print.
- FIGR: hold - Down 3.0% since Oct 2 though up 1.2% on Oct 7. Preliminary Q3 marketplace volume of $5.1B (up 107% year on year) hit the high end of guidance; Goldman and BofA trimmed targets to $41 and $44 but kept Buy, so hold.
- GOOGL: add - Up 2.0% since Oct 2 and 0.8% on Oct 7, the steadiest mega-cap. A 20-year Constellation nuclear power deal and Unity gaming tie-up add to the AI buildout; the Finland data-centre construction stop (by Oct 23) is a delay to a $15B plan, not a thesis change.
- LDI: trim - Down about 3% since Oct 2 and flat on Oct 7, still a sub-dollar stock with an NYSE compliance notice. Mortgage rates are at their highest in about a year, so there is no near-term catalyst; keep trimming into strength.
- META: hold - Down 0.9% since Oct 2 and 2.4% on Oct 7, the weakest mega-cap on the day despite the Muse iPad launch and a Citi note seeing Muse as a $27B business by 2030. Florida filed to force teen-safety changes on top of the New Mexico penalty claim; hold rather than add.
- MRVL: hold - Up 4.6% since Oct 2 after a 5.8% jump on investor day and a 0.8% pullback on Oct 7. Management targets $20B revenue in FY28 and $70-90B in FY31, and about 15 brokers raised targets (Morgan Stanley and Goldman stay neutral); at roughly 60x forward earnings, hold and do not chase.
- MU: hold - Up 1.2% since Oct 2, with a 4.1% rise on Oct 7 despite a Taiwan plant strike vote and a morning sell-off in memory names. D.A. Davidson set a Street-high $3,000 target; the strike has no date and the Netlist patent dispute settled, so hold.
- NFLX: hold - Up 3.9% since Oct 2 and 1.5% on Oct 7, a partial bounce after the 14% September drop. Barclays cut its target to $70 from $80 ahead of Q3; the print is the next test.
- NVDA: hold - Up 1.5% since Oct 2 but down 0.7% on Oct 7, just under its record. Microsoft and Dell launched RTX Spark PCs, a new consumer channel, while concentration and yield risk grow; hold.
- OPENAI: hold - Reports from Sep 29 to Oct 6 say OpenAI is in early talks for a $30B round at about $1.4T pre-money, with MGX and BlackRock; it is not closed and has no lead investor. The mark stays until a round or tender is confirmed.
- RKT: watch - Down 2.2% since Oct 2 and 1.3% on Oct 7 as the 30-year mortgage rate index reached 7.59%, near its 52-week high. Mortgage stocks need a sustained fall in yields, which is not happening, so watch.
- STRIPE: hold - No closed round or tender since the February tender at a $159B valuation. A secondary-market quote implies a higher figure, but that is not a closed deal, so the mark is unchanged.
- TSM: add - Flat since Oct 2 after a 2.8% jump on Oct 5 and a 2.1% drop on Oct 7 when Musk said TSMC will not run his Terafab complex. Citi raised its target and expects a Q3 beat on Oct 15; September revenue is not yet out, so keep adding on weakness.

## Watchlist changes

- ALAB:US accumulate/medium -> watch/medium

## Watchlist

- ALAB:US Astera Labs - watch (medium) - Connectivity silicon (retimers, Scorpio switches) inside AI racks; Q2 revenue $392M, +104% YoY, Q3 guide $540-560M with Scorpio X set to become the largest product line. Closed Oct 7 at $382.25 (-1.9%), up 6.2% since Oct 2 and above the $377.87 breakout level, no company news; the Q3 call notice went out Oct 6. Fubon Buy with a $500 target; consensus $389.95 across 26 analysts.
- AVGO:US Broadcom - accumulate (medium) - Top custom AI chip (XPU) and AI networking supplier; Q3 FY26 AI revenue $16.7B, +221% YoY, Q4 guide ~$34.8B. Closed Oct 7 at $376.51 (+0.2%), up 5.6% since Oct 2. Consensus target $531.31 (+41%) from 50 analysts, still the widest gap among the AI names. Morgan Stanley says Broadcom and Nvidia are relatively insulated from the US data-centre power crunch.
- SKHY:US SK hynix - buy (high) - Holds ~58% of HBM revenue share; Q2 operating income KRW 60.5T at a 76% margin, ~9x trailing earnings. The ADR closed Oct 7 at $178.25 (-2.4%), down 8.5% since Oct 2 and 11% under its $199.87 high; Seoul shares fell 3.7% on Oct 6 on no company news. AMD's CEO visited Korea to discuss HBM plans with SK hynix and Samsung. 15 analysts at Buy, ADR consensus target $252 (+41%).
- BE:US Bloom Energy - watch (medium) - On-site fuel cells for AI data centres; Q2 revenue $1.07B, +166%, 2026 guide $3.9-4.2B. Flat at $291.29 on Oct 7 (-1.5% on the day), with UBS raising its target to $350 from $325 (Buy), Barclays to $308 and Jefferies to $264. Consensus target is $283.78 across 29 analysts.
- GEV:US GE Vernova - accumulate (high) - Bottleneck supplier of gas turbines and grid gear for AI power; Q2 orders $24.2B (+88% organic), backlog ~$176B. Closed Oct 7 at $997.09 (-3.1% on the day, +1.5% since Oct 2). The BWRX-300 SMR has its first US construction permit (NRC). Consensus target $1,230 (+23%) from 37 analysts.
- VRT:US Vertiv Holdings - accumulate (medium) - Power, thermal and liquid-cooling infrastructure for AI data centres; Q2 net sales $3.27B (+24%, 18% organic) at a 22.6% adjusted operating margin, 2026 guide $14.0B. Closed Oct 7 at $246.49 (-2.6%), down 2.0% since Oct 2. BofA put it on its US 1 list and BMO initiated at Outperform ($329); Wells Fargo is Overweight ($340). Consensus target $337.43 (+37%).
- HOOD:US Robinhood Markets - accumulate (medium) - Q2 revenue $1.31B (+32%) at a 57% adjusted EBITDA margin. Closed Oct 7 at $109.51 (-2.2% as bitcoin fell below $83,000 and crypto-linked stocks dropped), down 6.1% since Oct 2. Barclays raised its target to $132 from $105 and BofA to $156 from $140; Wells Fargo started at Equal Weight ($125). Consensus target $134.33 (+23%). AI trading agents and longer trading hours came out of HOOD Summit.
- MELI:US MercadoLibre - accumulate (medium) - LatAm's leading e-commerce and fintech platform; Q2 revenue $10.17B (+50%), the 30th straight quarter above 30%. Closed Oct 7 at $1,872.78 (+0.8%), up 10.2% since Oct 2 after rallying on the first round of Brazil's presidential election. Susquehanna raised its target to $2,500 from $2,400. Consensus target $2,276 (+21.5%); the one-hour Sao Paulo delivery launch is the new service.
- NET:US Cloudflare - accumulate (high) - Edge network that controls bot and AI-agent traffic; Q2 revenue $696M (+36%), 120% net retention. Closed Oct 7 at $342.97 (-3.4% on the day, -2.5% since Oct 2). Birthday Week closed with 46 launches, including Pay Per Use for publishers, a Monetization Gateway for AI-agent payments (beta) and Basin (GA). BTIG raised its target to $413 from $382. Deutsche Telekom tie-up and a public post-quantum CA (Q1 2027) widen the enterprise story.
- SE:US Sea Limited - accumulate (medium) - Q2 revenue $7.8B (+48%): Shopee GMV +28%, Monee loan book +62%, 2026 adjusted EBITDA guide above $1B. Closed Oct 7 at $94.66 (-1.9%), just under the $95 level and still down ~27% YTD. Average target $155 (+64%) is the widest gap on the list; Arete upgraded to Buy ($152), but nothing is due until Nov 10, so conviction stays medium.
- 1211:HK BYD - watch (medium) - Exports drive growth: September NEV sales 463,561 (+17.0% YoY), overseas 180,700, a fifth straight monthly rise offsetting a weak home market. The shares closed Oct 7 at HK$74.55 (-0.6%), $9.50 at 7.848 HKD per USD, 4% above the HK$71.40 52-week low; JPMorgan cut to Neutral (target HK$88) last week. Average target HK$124.39 (+67%). Da Han flagship sedan (CLTC range up to 1,008 km, 249,900-299,900 yuan) goes on sale Oct 13; BYD plans a heavy-duty truck in Europe next year.
- 6861:JP Keyence Corp - buy (high) - Machine vision and sensors for factory automation and robotics; fiscal Q1 sales JPY 346.6B (+32.8%), net income +51% to JPY 139.1B, operating margin above 50%. Tokyo closed Oct 7 at JPY 81,560 (+1.6% on Oct 2's JPY 80,270), which is $515 at 158.23 yen per dollar; early Oct 8 trade was JPY 80,820 (-0.9%). Citi and Goldman Sachs have upgraded; consensus JPY 97,867 (+21%).
- ASML:US ASML Holding - buy (high) - Sole EUV supplier; 2026 guide EUR 43-45B at 54-56% gross margin, 2027 EUV capacity essentially sold out and low-NA EUV capacity set to grow about 30% in 2027. Closed Oct 7 at $1,804.96 (-1.6%), down 3.0% since Oct 2. BofA raised its target to EUR 2,557 from 2,452; Intel passed 1 million High-NA wafers. Consensus target $2,097 (+16%); bookings on Oct 14 are the next test.
- TER:US Teradyne - watch (medium) - Test equipment for AI and HBM chips (~70% of revenue) plus Universal Robots cobots; Q2 revenue $1.33B, more than double. Closed Oct 7 at $411.78 (-4.3%), down 6.6% since Oct 2, after launching the Titan HP burn-in platform (Oct 6) and investing in Bright Machines (Oct 5). The Magnum E2 memory tester shows at SEMICON West Oct 13-15. Consensus target $446.47 (+8.4%).
- TSLA:US Tesla - watch (medium) - Q3 deliveries beat: 486,532 vs the 461,974 company-compiled consensus (+5.3%), production 464,391, so inventory fell by about 22,000. Deliveries are -2.1% YoY; storage missed at 13.7 GWh vs 15.9 GWh expected. Closed Oct 7 at $377.81 (-0.8%), +1.0% since Oct 2. Consensus target $396.57 (+5%); Goldman stays at Hold, UBS Buy ($391). Tesla is pushing EU countries to approve FSD. Track it, don't chase it.

## Bellwether changes

- h100_rental: $2.77/hr index (+1.8% 7d) Oct 2 print, flat on Oct 1 and at the Sep 30-Oct 1 highs; H200 $3.37 (+2.1% 7d); MI300X $2.63 (+0.4%); A100 $1.58 (+0.6%); RunPod H100 SXM $3.49/$2.69, Lambda $3.99-4.29 (last checked Sep 30); Nebius H100 list +17% live from Oct 1; CME futures not listing Oct 5 (CFTC review to Nov 9)/bullish -> $2.81/hr index (+1.4% 7d) Oct 7, a new high (Oct 2: $2.77); H200 $3.32 (+2.9% 7d); MI300X $2.64 (+0.4%); A100 $1.52 (+3.8%); Nebius H100 list +17% live since Oct 1; CME futures still not listed (CFTC review to Nov 9)/bullish
- b200_rental: Silicon Data B200 $5.86 (+0.2% 7d) Oct 2, unchanged on Oct 1; B300 $6.70 (+1.5% 7d), down from $6.78 on Oct 1; B200/H100 ~2.12x; RunPod B200 $5.98/$6.79, B300 $6.94/$7.89, Lambda B200 $6.69-6.99 (last checked Sep 30); Nebius B200 +19%, B300 +21% live from Oct 1; CoreWeave running Vera Rubin NVL72 in production (Sep 30)/bullish -> Silicon Data B200 $5.88 (+0.3% 7d) Oct 7 (Oct 2: $5.86); B300 $6.68 (+1.5% 7d), vs $6.70 Oct 2; B200/H100 ~2.09x; Nebius B200 +19%, B300 +21% live since Oct 1; CoreWeave running Vera Rubin NVL72 in production/bullish
- hopper_residual: A100 index $1.58/hr (+0.6% 7d) Oct 2, unchanged, above the $1.50 trigger; used H100 SXM ~$18-27K by age vs $30K list (Jun); Reuters: lenders underwrite GPUs on 3-4 yr schedules vs Nvidia's 'up to a decade', want more than 25% residual guarantees on the $500B financing plan; Amazon reportedly putting ~$8B of Grace Blackwell chips in a financing vehicle, source notes ~5-yr chip replacement cycle; MSFT/Meta lives unchanged/bullish -> A100 index $1.52/hr Oct 7 (Oct 2: $1.58), just above the $1.50 trigger; H100 $2.81, H200 $3.32 both up; used H100 SXM ~$18-27K by age vs $30K list (Jun); lenders underwrite GPUs on 3-4 yr schedules vs Nvidia's 'up to a decade' and want >25% residual guarantees; Amazon reportedly putting ~$8B of Grace Blackwell chips in a financing vehicle (~5-yr replacement cycle); MSFT/Meta lives unchanged/bullish
- memory_prices: Micron FQ4 (Sep 30): rev $54.23B vs $51.5B est, non-GAAP GM 87.0%, DRAM ASP +high-teens QoQ, NAND ASP ~+30%; FQ1 guide $61.5B ±$1.5B at ~86.25% GM ('low point for FY27'); 'vast majority' of CY2027 HBM bits contracted at significantly higher YoY prices; supply-constrained through 2028; MU -3.1% Thu 10:30 ET on the beat; TrendForce 2027 HBM ASP +121%; DDR5 16Gb spot $58.00 (Oct 2, +0.12%), DDR4 16Gb $83.59 (-0.09%); Tesla halves AI5 LPDDR5 to 72GB as memory tightens/bullish -> Samsung Q3 prelim (Oct 8): op profit 107.4T won (+20% QoQ, +783% y/y), sales 195T won, HBM4 sales rising steeply ahead of Vera Rubin; DRAMeXchange DDR4 8Gb avg $26 at Q3-end (+23.8% QoQ); spot Oct 7: DDR5 16Gb $58.40 (+0.40%), DDR4 16Gb $83.59 flat; TrendForce 4Q26 (via Goldman): server DRAM +10-15% QoQ, NAND +15-20%; Micron FQ4 GM 87%, FQ1 guide $61.5B; 2027 HBM ASP +121% (TrendForce)/bullish
- power_bottleneck: 474 GW ERCOT queue (~90% data centers); Texas TCEQ permit freeze since Sep 21, compliance report due Oct 19; BNEF: 49.8 GW delayed; GE Vernova 116 GW backlog, ~20 GW/yr output, new orders land ~2030-31; Oracle force majeure on 2.45 GW Project Jupiter (gas pipeline to Feb 2027); US Senate blocks Ratepayer Protection Act 57-43 (Sep 30); Dover DE 18-month and Dixon CA 45-day data-center moratoria/bullish -> 474 GW ERCOT queue (~90% data centers); Texas TCEQ data-center permit freeze since Sep 21, compliance report due Oct 19; BNEF: 49.8 GW delayed; GE Vernova 116 GW gas backlog + slot reservations (Q2; target >=125 GW by year-end), ~20 GW/yr output; Oracle force majeure on 2.45 GW Project Jupiter; Senate blocked Ratepayer Protection Act 57-43 (Sep 30); Dover DE and Dixon CA moratoria/bullish
- capex_vs_backlog: Anthropic prospectus: $518B of compute commitments over 7-10 yrs (Broadcom leases $161.2B, Google $111.1B, Amazon $110B, xAI/Nvidia up to $84.5B, Microsoft $31.4B, AMD $20B+), ~80% non-cancelable; Anthropic pre-IPO investor session Oct 14, formal marketing week of Nov 9; Amazon expects ~$220B 2026 capex and is exploring an $8B off-balance-sheet chip vehicle; Oracle RPO $664B plus reported $7B/5-yr Tencent GPU lease, but force majeure on Project Jupiter; Micron ~$150B RPO, H1 FY27 capex ~$25B; Goldman: US hyperscaler capex $1.4T in 2027/neutral -> Anthropic prospectus: $518B of compute commitments over 7-10 yrs, ~80% non-cancelable; Anthropic pre-IPO investor session Oct 14, formal marketing week of Nov 9; Amazon ~$220B 2026 capex plus a reported $8B off-balance-sheet chip vehicle; Oracle RPO $664B but force majeure on Project Jupiter; Micron ~$150B RPO; Marvell lifted FY28 revenue to ~$20B and set a $70-90B FY31 target (Oct 6); Goldman: US hyperscaler capex $1.4T in 2027/neutral
- neocloud_credit: Broadcom-led ~$60B AI-chip financing for Anthropic and others: $42B senior-secured Class A (bank syndicate) + $18B junior Class B led by Blackstone ($9B own capital), pricing undisclosed (Bloomberg, Oct 2); Amazon exploring ~$8B Nvidia-chip SPV, IG rating the aim; CoreWeave $4.2B 2.875% converts (Sep 24); Lambda $926M TLB at SOFR+300, Baa2 (Sep 22); CoreWeave loans still ~SOFR+550, debt $35.1B at Jun 30; GMI Cloud $668M (Oct 1); lenders want >25% residual guarantees and IG-customer backing on Nvidia's $500B plan; data-center ABS $11.9B YTD vs $15.5B in 2025; CRWV $91.25 (+3.0%) at 10:29 ET Oct 2, 52-wk $60.55-153.20/neutral -> CoreWeave debt ~$35.6B, trailing net leverage ~6.8x, EBITDA interest cover 2.7x, backlog $103.7B, 2031 unsecured bond yield 'low teens' vs 9.75% at April issue (Seeking Alpha via Pluang, Oct 1); CRWV $87.39 (-2.5%) at Oct 5 close, 52-wk $60.55-153.20; Broadcom-led ~$60B chip financing ($42B senior + $18B junior led by Blackstone), pricing undisclosed; Amazon ~$8B chip SPV, IG rating the aim; lenders want >25% residual guarantees/neutral
- nvidia_dc: DC rev $89.0B +117% YoY (Q2 FY27), GM 75.0%, Q3 guide $108B at 74%; one direct customer >=10% (16%); five customers = 70% of receivables; supply commitments $279B; OpenAI Ohio backstop cut to <$120B; $150B buyback added Sep 28 ($235B remaining); $500B chip-collateral financing plan (Blackstone/Apollo/KKR) meeting lender pushback; Broadcom-led ~$60B chip financing and Amazon's ~$8B Nvidia-chip SPV show rivals and customers building their own financing; Tencent reportedly leasing ~100,000 Nvidia GPUs via Oracle SE Asia ($7B/5 yr)/bullish -> DC rev $89.0B +117% YoY (Q2 FY27), GM 75.0%, Q3 guide $108B at 74%; one direct customer >=10% (16%); supply commitments $279B; $150B buyback added Sep 28; NVDA $237.47 (-0.7%) Oct 7, below its record; Samsung says HBM4 sales jumped ahead of Vera Rubin (Oct 8); $500B chip-collateral plan facing lender pushback; Q3 FY27 report ~Nov, GTC Washington Nov 30-Dec 3/bullish

## Calendar changes

- 2026-10-08-samsung-prelim: 2026-10-08 TBC - Korean press expects Thu Oct 8, ~08:30 KST (10:30 AEDT Thu; 19:30 ET Wed); Samsung IR calendar not yet updated -> 2026-10-08 Released 08:28 KST Thu Oct 8 (10:28 AEDT; 19:28 ET Wed)
- 2026-10-08-tsm-sept-revenue: 2026-10-08 13:30 Taipei (16:30 AEDT Thu; 01:30 ET) -> 2026-10-08 13:30 Taipei (16:30 AEDT Thu; 01:30 ET), per TSMC's IR calendar
- added 2026-10-08 FED Fed Governor Waller, 'Economic Outlook', Istanbul Economic Forum (Central Bank of Turkiye)
- added 2026-10-08 MACRO Shanghai and Shenzhen reopen after Golden Week (closed Oct 1-7)
- added 2026-10-12 FED Cleveland Fed President Hammack, luncheon speech, NABE annual meeting
- added 2026-10-12 MACRO IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings, Bangkok
- 2026-10-13-big-banks-q3: 2026-10-13 JPM results ~07:00 ET (22:00 AEDT), call 08:30 ET (23:30 AEDT); GS, WFC, C same morning; BAC and MS Wed Oct 14 pre-open -> 2026-10-13 JPM 07:00 ET (22:00 AEDT), call 08:30 ET; WFC 07:00 ET, call 10:00 ET; Citi ~08:00 ET, call 11:00 ET; GS pre-open, call 09:30 ET (company date not seen); BAC and MS Wed Oct 14 pre-open
- added 2026-10-14 MACRO China September CPI (NBS)
- 2026-10-14-asml-q3: 2026-10-14 Oct 14 per multiple outlets (UBS-note coverage Sep 29); ASML IR page did not load. Usually 07:00 CEST = 01:00 ET = 16:00 AEDT Wed -> 2026-10-14 Oct 14 per MarketScreener and Akros calendars (company page not seen). Usually 07:00 CEST = 01:00 ET = 16:00 AEDT Wed
- added 2026-10-15 MACRO Australia labour force, September (ABS)
- 2026-10-15-tsm-q3-results: 2026-10-15 14:00-15:30 Taipei (17:00 AEDT Thu; 02:00 ET) -> 2026-10-15 14:00 Taipei (17:00 AEDT Thu; 02:00 ET); quiet period Oct 5-14
- added 2026-10-19 MACRO China Q3 GDP (NBS)
- added 2026-10-19 MACRO Texas TCEQ compliance report due under Abbott's data-center permit freeze
- added 2026-10-20 NFLX Netflix Q3 2026 results (company outlook: revenue $12.86B, operating income $4.27B, EPS $0.82)
- added 2026-10-20 NVDA Nvidia GTC Berlin (Washington D.C. edition is Nov 30-Dec 3, keynote Dec 1)
- added 2026-10-21 TSLA Tesla Q3 2026 results and update
- added 2026-10-22 SPOT Spotify Q3 2026 results

## New news (31)

- 2026-10-06 [positive] MRVL: Marvell investor day lifts targets to $20B revenue in FY28 - Marvell projects a $400B addressable market by 2030, FY28 revenue of about $20B against $18.2B consensus, custom silicon above $12B by FY29, and FY31 revenue of $70-90B with EPS above $30. Shares reversed a 3% dip to close up about 6%. <https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/marvell-technology-stock-rallies-following-142513133.html>
- 2026-10-07 [positive] MRVL: Brokers raise Marvell targets, TD Cowen upgrades to Buy - TD Cowen upgraded to Buy with a $350 target; Piper, Needham and BofA went to $400. Morgan Stanley (Equal Weight) and Goldman (Neutral) stayed cautious. The stock gave back some of the gain on Oct 7. <https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/10/07/analysts-just-upgraded-marvell-heres-what-they-see-coming-next/>
- 2026-10-07 [positive] NVDA: Microsoft and Dell launch Nvidia RTX Spark AI PCs - Microsoft unveiled the Surface Laptop Ultra on Nvidia's RTX Spark chip from $2,600 plus a $6,000 dev box. Dell's XPS 16 Creator Edition also uses the chip. It opens a PC channel beyond data centres. <https://techcrunch.com/2026/10/07/microsoft-releases-new-nvidia-chip-ai-pcs-with-revamped-windows-11/>
- 2026-10-07 [positive] MU: D.A. Davidson lifts Micron target to Street-high $3,000 - The firm raised its target from $2,100 and kept Buy, saying investors are early in understanding a 3-5 year growth phase. The consensus target is far lower, at about $1,630. <https://www.tipranks.com/news/the-fly/micron-price-target-raised-to-3000-from-2100-at-da-davidson-thefly-news>
- 2026-10-07 [negative] MU: Micron Taoyuan union votes to authorise a strike - 99% of voting members (1,994) backed strike action over the bonus scheme after mediation failed in September. No strike date is set, and shares fell about 3% premarket before closing higher. <https://www.tipranks.com/news/micron-stock-drops-as-taiwan-union-secures-strike-mandate>
- 2026-10-07 [positive] TSM: Citi raises TSMC target, expects Q3 beat on Oct 15 - Citi lifted its target to NT$4,000 from NT$3,800, kept Buy and opened a 90-day upside catalyst watch, expecting TSMC to beat raised guidance. August revenue was up 53% year on year; September figures are still due. <https://www.tipranks.com/news/the-fly/citi-ups-tsmc-target-opens-upside-90-day-catalyst-watch-thefly-news>
- 2026-10-07 [neutral] TSM: Musk says TSMC will not run his Terafab chip complex - Musk said there is 'zero doubt' his companies, not TSMC, will build and operate Terafab, a project costing up to $119B. TSM fell more than 1% intraday and Intel gained. <https://www.tipranks.com/news/tsm-stock-falls-after-musk-says-zero-doubt-taiwan-semi-wont-run-its-terafab-ai-chip-complex>
- 2026-10-06 [neutral] TSM: Taiwan opens Phoenix office as TSMC Arizona total reaches $265B - TSMC has pledged another $100B for Phoenix, taking total Arizona investment to $265B, the largest foreign direct investment in US history. China objected to the office opening. <https://fortune.com/2026/10/06/taiwan-opens-phoenix-office-as-265-billion-chip-investment-in-arizona-grows-over-chinas-objections/>
- 2026-10-06 [positive] AMZN: Tigress raises Amazon target to $385 from $315 - Tigress kept Buy, citing AI, cloud, advertising and Prime engagement, and said returns on heavy investment are about to outgrow the capital needed. Prime Big Deal Days ran Oct 6-7. <https://www.tipranks.com/news/the-fly/amazon-com-price-target-raised-to-385-from-315-at-tigress-financial-thefly-news>
- 2026-10-06 [negative] GOOGL: Finland orders Google to pause work at two data-centre sites - The regulator wants an environmental assessment before building continues at Muhos and Kajaani; the stop takes effect by Oct 23. The sites are part of a $15B Finland plan through 2028. <https://www.tipranks.com/news/googles-15b-finland-ai-buildout-hit-by-data-center-construction-halt>
- 2026-10-07 [neutral] GOOGL: Waymo upsizes first debt raise to $5B - Lenders include Pimco, Blackstone and Sixth Street, priced 5.25 points over the benchmark rate, per Bloomberg. It funds Waymo's global expansion without new Alphabet equity. <https://www.tipranks.com/news/the-fly/waymo-increases-size-of-debt-raise-to-5b-bloomberg-says-thefly-news>
- 2026-10-06 [positive] META: Citi sees Meta's Muse as a $27B business by 2030 - Citi estimates over $27B by 2030, mostly transactions and subscriptions, with 1.8 million daily users. PYMNTS notes few households pay for AI and compute costs are high. <https://www.pymnts.com/news/artificial-intelligence/2026/metas-muse-could-become-27-billion-business-citi-says/>
- 2026-10-07 [neutral] META: Meta launches Muse iPad app with business and retail connectors - The iPad app arrives a month after the mobile launch (over 6.6 million downloads) and adds Asana, Canva, GitHub, Walmart and Best Buy connectors. Meta is also working on an open standard for AI agents; the stock fell 2.4% on the day. <https://techcrunch.com/2026/10/07/metas-muse-launches-on-ipad-just-a-month-after-its-mobile-debut/>
- 2026-10-07 [negative] NFLX: Barclays cuts Netflix target to $70 from $80 - Equal Weight kept; the Q3 preview says earnings will be about narrative (mergers, AI) rather than the quarter itself. <https://www.tipranks.com/news/the-fly/netflix-price-target-lowered-to-70-from-80-at-barclays-thefly-news>
- 2026-10-05 [positive] BABA: Alibaba jumps 4% as AI cloud growth reclaims the narrative - June-quarter AI cloud and compute revenue grew 45% to $7.1B and adjusted EBITA rose 133% to $830M, but quarterly capex of nearly $10B is about 12 times cloud EBITA. <https://www.gurufocus.com/news/9109743/alibaba-stocks-jump-4-as-ai-cloud-growth-reclaims-the-narrative>
- 2026-10-06 [negative] ENPH: Barclays cuts Enphase target to $44 from $50 - Equal Weight kept. Oppenheimer also trimmed to $55 from $56 this week, ahead of Q3 results. <https://www.tipranks.com/news/the-fly/enphase-energy-price-target-lowered-to-44-from-50-at-barclays-thefly-news>
- 2026-10-07 [negative] ENPH: Deutsche Bank names Enphase a short-term sell idea - Citing high expectations for safe-harbor revenue into 2027, it expects softer core growth, a Q4 miss and lower 2027 estimates; Hold rating and $34 target kept. <https://www.tipranks.com/news/the-fly/enphase-energy-named-short-term-sell-idea-at-deutsche-bank-thefly-news>
- 2026-10-06 [positive] FIGR: Figure reports Q3 marketplace volume of $5.1B, up 107% year on year - Volume was at the high end of the $4.8-5.2B guide, up 20% on Q2; September was $1.78B. YLDS in circulation fell 9% from Q2 to $504M. <https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/10/06/3376144/0/en/figure-technology-solutions-reports-preliminary-september-q3-2026-operating-data.html>
- 2026-10-07 [neutral] FIGR: Goldman trims Figure target to $41 from $48 - Buy rating kept. BofA also cut to $44 from $49 on Oct 6. <https://www.tipranks.com/news/the-fly/figure-technology-price-target-lowered-to-41-from-48-at-goldman-sachs-thefly-news>
- 2026-10-06 [neutral] OPENAI: OpenAI in early talks for $30B round at about $1.4T - Talks with Abu Dhabi's MGX (up to $10B) and BlackRock are early, with no lead investor and terms that may change. The last closed round was $122B at $852B post-money in March. <https://en.cryptonomist.ch/2026/10/06/openai-30-billion-funding>
- 2026-10-07 [neutral] STRIPE: No new Stripe round; secondary quote implies about $196B - The last tender was $159B in February. A secondary-market quote implies about $196B but is not a deal. Stripe added a FedEx Dataworks partnership and agreed to buy Parafin. <https://stockanalysis.com/private/stripe/>
- 2026-10-05 [negative] ANTHROPIC: Pentagon says it has stopped using Anthropic products - A Defense Department official told the BBC the Pentagon 'has ceased the use of Anthropic products'. Sources said Claude was still running inside Palantir's Maven system as recently as last week. Government exposure is a disclosure risk ahead of the Oct 14 investor day and a planned November listing. <https://aiweekly.co/ai-news-today/edition/2026-10-06>
- 2026-10-05 [positive] NET: Cloudflare closes Birthday Week with 46 launches - Includes Pay Per Use (publishers billed when verified AI buyers use their content), a Monetization Gateway beta for AI-agent payments over HTTP 402, Basin GA on Iceberg and R2, and a Cloudflare OS agent workspace waitlist. The stock still fell 3.4% on Oct 7 to $342.97 with the wider tape. <https://blog.cloudflare.com/birthday-week-2026-wrap-up/>
- 2026-10-07 [negative] AAPL: EU weighs annual lump-sum levy on very large companies - The FT reports the Commission has recast its digital tax as a flat annual contribution from all very large corporations, to avoid a US trade fight. No rate is set; Apple, Google and Meta would likely pay, with iCloud, Apple Music and Apple TV counted as EU revenue. Shares closed $336.67 (+0.9%), above the $328 consensus target. <https://9to5mac.com/2026/10/07/apple-may-have-to-pay-an-annual-lump-sum-to-the-eu-in-a-tax-compromise/>
- 2026-09-30 [neutral] AAPL: Apple smart-home hub, HomePod mini and Apple TV expected Oct 13 - Bloomberg's Gurman reports a 6-inch tabletop hub (wall-mount version also reported) with an iMac G4-inspired design, a HomePod mini in new colours and an Apple TV 4K with Siri AI support. Apple has not confirmed the date. MacRumors adds that new CEO John Ternus is spending several days a week in the design studio. <https://9to5mac.com/2026/09/30/apples-homepad-smart-home-hub-launching-on-oct-13-bloomberg/>
- 2026-10-07 [positive] SPOT: Spotify jumps about 5% to $513 on analyst support and a video deal - Evercore ISI raised its target to $700 from $650; UBS trimmed to $675 and KeyBanc to $660, all keeping Buy-equivalent ratings. Spotify will host full video episodes of the Open Mic and Verified podcasts. Q3 results are due Oct 22 before the open. <https://stockstotrade.com/news/spotify-technology-sa-spot-news-2026_10_07/>
- 2026-10-07 [negative] HOOD: Robinhood slips as bitcoin falls below $83,000 - Crypto-linked stocks including Robinhood, Coinbase and Strategy dropped on Oct 7; HOOD closed at $109.51 (-2.2%), 6% below its Oct 2 level. Q3 results are on Oct 27 after the close. <https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/live/stock-market-today-wednesday-october-7-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-080241833.html>
- 2026-10-08 [positive] 005930: Samsung Q3 preliminary operating profit 107.4T won, first quarter above 100T - Sales 195T won (+127% y/y); profit +20% q/q. HBM4 sales rose steeply ahead of Vera Rubin; DDR4 8Gb averaged $26 at quarter-end (+23.8% q/q). In line with consensus of ~106-109T. <https://en.sedaily.com/finance/2026/10/08/samsung-quarterly-operating-profit-tops-107-trillion-won>
- 2026-10-07 [neutral] MACRO: Fed minutes: all officials backed September hike, split on what comes next - Per Bloomberg and Raisin, some regional presidents want 1-2 more hikes, others a pause. Data since (core PCE 3.0%, 29K payrolls) cut hike odds for Oct 28 to about 20%. Minutes text itself not retrieved. <https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-07/fed-minutes-show-hawkish-unity-behind-september-rate-hike>
- 2026-10-06 [positive] MRVL: Marvell investor day: FY31 revenue framework $70-90B, FY28 about $20B - Custom compute FY29 above $12B; addressable market ~$400B by 2030; consensus FY31 ~$47B. Shares rose Tuesday and slipped pre-market Wednesday; TD Cowen upgraded to Buy, Needham target $400. <https://www.techtimes.com/articles/328671/20261006/marvell-targets-90b-revenue-2031-google-warrant-ties-120b-chip-buys-marvell-equity.htm>
- 2026-10-05 [negative] MACRO: ISM services PMI 54.9; prices paid 74.0, highest since July 2022 - Headline eased 0.5 to 54.9 (est 55.0); new orders 59.8, employment 50.1. Fuel costs and tariffs cited. Argues against a Fed pivot to cuts. <https://www.roic.ai/news/us-services-activity-cools-in-septemberbut-inflation-pressures-intensify-ism-survey-shows-10-05-2026>

## Notes

Six-day gap since the Oct 2 run. No new watchlist names: Credo (CRDO) is a bench candidate, overlaps ALAB. ALAB moved to watch (2% under consensus after a 6% rise). Unverified or blocked: Reuters/CNBC/Bloomberg pages; TSMC September revenue not out; OPEC+ Oct 4 hold has no captured URL; Cursor/SpaceX deal only in snippets. OpenAI $30B round at ~$1.4T is early talks only, mark unchanged. Samsung prelim figure and Silicon Data headline indices used where FAQ boxes disagreed.

Nothing here is financial advice. Holdings and opinions are my own; the "agent" sections are written by an automated research skill and may be wrong. Built 2026-10-08 13:38 UTC.