← research log

# Research run 2026-10-13T07:45 UTC

## What changed

- Memory rout spread: KOSPI fell 5.5% Tuesday, SK hynix 10%, Samsung 7%, after Micron lost 3.9% Monday on China's CXMT DRAM plan.
- Chip index fell 2.7% Monday, a fourth straight loss; Marvell -3.4%, TSMC -2% in New York and again in Taipei.
- Meta rose 3.4% after Zuckerberg said it caught up on frontier AI; Q3 results now Oct 21, 07:30 AEDT Thu Oct 22.
- WSJ: Amazon in talks to buy AI startup Decart for about $7B; Amazon fell 1.1%, Alphabet edged up 0.3%.
- Physical demand held: DDR5 spot set another high Tuesday and H100 rent rose 2c to $2.85.
- Next: banks 22:00 AEDT tonight, Apple 00:00 AEDT Wed, ASML 16:00 AEDT Wed, US CPI 23:30 AEDT Wed, TSMC 17:00 AEDT Thu.

## Market summary

Monday's US session (Columbus Day, bond market shut) ended mixed: S&P 500 -0.06% to 7,807, Nasdaq -0.44% to 27,246, Dow +0.38% to 51,851, while the Philadelphia chip index fell 2.7% to a three-week low as Micron, SanDisk and Western Digital sold off on China's CXMT DRAM progress. Brent settled +1.8% at $106.65 and WTI +2.1% at $93.74 as the Saudi airport attacks outweighed Trump's Russia-Ukraine 'energy ceasefire', which Zelenskiy said Russia looks unlikely to accept; December gold fell 0.6% to $4,191, the dollar index hit an 18-month high of 102.59, and Cleveland Fed's Hammack said policy should move 'relatively quickly' toward restrictive. Tuesday in Asia the memory sell-off deepened: KOSPI -5.47% to 6,035 after a sell-side sidecar (SK hynix -10.1%, Samsung -7.4%), Taiex -1.95% to 48,341, Nikkei about -1.8% near 67,800 on its return from the holiday (Kioxia, SoftBank, Tokyo Electron led), Shanghai about -1% and Shenzhen -2.2%, Hang Seng -0.4% and Hang Seng Tech -1.5% at the midday break, and the ASX 200 flat (+0.008%) as banks offset tech -4.4%. RBA minutes showed the 4.60% hike was unanimous and the Board is ready to go again if needed. US futures at 01:33 ET: Nasdaq 100 -0.5%, S&P 500 -0.1%, Dow +0.3%; Brent -1.1% to $105.52, WTI -1.2% to $92.63; bitcoin dipped below $82,000 on Oct 12 before recovering above $83,000. Next: JPM, Wells, Citi, Goldman 22:00-22:30 AEDT Tue; Apple home event 00:00 AEDT Wed; US open 00:30 AEDT Wed; China CPI/PPI 12:30 AEDT Wed with September trade data also Wed; ASML 16:00 AEDT Wed; US CPI 23:30 AEDT Wed (core seen +0.2%), BAC and MS before that open; Anthropic investor session Thu AEDT; AU jobs 11:30 AEDT Thu; TSMC 17:00 AEDT Thu; PPI, retail sales and claims 23:30 AEDT Thu; Warsh 14:30 AEDT Fri; FOMC blackout from Sat Oct 17; China Q3 GDP 13:00 AEDT Mon Oct 19; Netflix 07:01 AEDT Wed Oct 21; Meta (now confirmed) 07:30 AEDT Thu Oct 22.

## Holdings

- AMZN: hold - Fell 1.1% Monday after the WSJ reported Amazon is in talks to buy AI chip-software startup Decart for about $7 billion; Decart was valued near $4 billion in May and no deal is signed. A small deal for Amazon's size that supports Trainium. Alexa tablets go on sale Wed Oct 14; Q3 about Fri Oct 30 07:00 AEDT. Hold.
- AXOS: hold - No company news. JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Citi and Goldman report tonight before the US open (22:00-22:30 AEDT Tue), the first read on deposit costs and credit ahead of Axos's fiscal Q1 call Fri Oct 30 08:00 AEDT. US CPI Wed 23:30 AEDT. Hold.
- BABA: hold - US ADR slipped 0.5% Monday, giving back little of Friday's 5.4% jump; Hong Kong shares opened 0.5% lower Tuesday as Hang Seng Tech fell about 1% on chip weakness. No company news. China CPI, PPI and trade data Wed 12:30 AEDT; results Nov 24. Hold.
- ENPH: watch - Fell 4.0% Monday with no company or solar-policy news found; the dollar index hit an 18-month high and oil rose 2%, while rates stay high (Mortgage News Daily's 30-year was last 7.48%). US CPI Wed 23:30 AEDT is the week's rate test; Q3 call Wed Oct 28 07:30 AEDT. Watch.
- FIGR: hold - Down 0.3% Monday on no company news, holding most of Friday's 3.4% gain; the Q3 results date is still unannounced. Bank results tonight (22:00-22:30 AEDT) and US CPI Wed 23:30 AEDT drive the rate-sensitive names this week. Hold.
- GOOGL: add - Up 0.3% Monday while the Nasdaq fell 0.4% and chips sold off, the steadiest of the AI holdings. No company news; the communications sector led the S&P with +1%. Q3 results late October. Add stays.
- LDI: trim - Bounced 3.6% Monday on no news after Friday's 9% drop to a 52-week low. The bond market was shut for Columbus Day, so Mortgage News Daily's 30-year is still the Friday reading of 7.48%. Still below the NYSE one-dollar threshold with the cure period to February; CPI Wed 23:30 AEDT is the next rate test. Trim.
- META: hold - Rose 3.4% Monday after Zuckerberg said Meta has caught up with rivals on frontier AI models and hinted at a strong upcoming model, the best move among the holdings. Still no New Mexico penalty ruling: the state wants $35-40 billion, Meta asks for no more than $1.53 billion, and the judge plans to rule by late October. Meta confirmed Q3 results for Wed Oct 21 after the US close (call 07:30 AEDT Thu Oct 22), a week earlier than expected. Hold.
- MRVL: hold - Fell 3.4% Monday as the Philadelphia chip index dropped 2.7%, its fourth straight loss, and optical names Lumentum, Ciena and Coherent fell 8-10%. No company news. Taiwan fell 1.95% Tuesday; TSMC's Q3 call Thu 17:00 AEDT is the week's first read on AI demand. Hold.
- MU: hold - Fell 3.9% Monday as China's CXMT denser-DRAM plan hit memory names (SanDisk -6%), then Korea deepened the slide Tuesday: KOSPI closed down 5.5% with SK hynix -10.1% and Samsung -7.4%, so expect more pressure tonight. CXMT's server parts are an end-2026 target and TrendForce calls the date ambitious, while DDR5 spot set another high Tuesday. Hold, but three sessions down.
- NFLX: hold - Up 0.4% Monday. The 5% job cuts Puck reported Friday (about 800-850 roles) are still not confirmed by Netflix. Q3 results Wed Oct 21 07:00 AEDT, guided to $12.86 billion revenue (+12%) and a 33.2% operating margin. Hold into the print.
- NVDA: hold - Fell 1.3% Monday, far less than the chip index's 2.7% drop. Nothing new on the FT-reported Reflection AI talks (acquisition, acqui-hire or bigger stake; Reflection's last valuation was $25 billion pre-money). TSMC's Q3 call Thu 17:00 AEDT is the first supply-chain read, then GTC Berlin Oct 20-22. Hold.
- OPENAI: hold - The $30 billion round at about a $1.4 trillion pre-money valuation is still in talks with an MGX-led UAE group (up to $10 billion) and BlackRock, with no close reported, so the mark multiple stays 5.43. No new deals or follow-up on the safety-researcher firings found. Anthropic's investor session Thu AEDT is the week's private-AI reference. Hold.
- RKT: watch - Fell 5.3% Monday with no company news found, a third straight decline. The bond market was shut, so Mortgage News Daily's 30-year is still Friday's 7.48% and Freddie Mac's weekly 7.40% is the highest since 2023. Bank results tonight 22:00-22:30 AEDT and CPI Wed 23:30 AEDT; Q3 around Oct 29. Watch.
- STRIPE: hold - No new round, tender or secondary mark reported; the last company tender was February at $159 billion, so the mark multiple stays 2.27. No company news since the Oct 6 FedEx Dataworks partnership. Hold.
- TSM: add - ADR fell 2.0% Monday with the chip selloff, then Taipei shares fell 2.0% Tuesday as the Taiex lost 1.95% on Korea's memory rout. TSMC's own numbers are unaffected: Q3 revenue already reported at about $46.7 billion against a $45.4 billion consensus. Results Thu Oct 15 17:00 AEDT. Add stays.

## Watchlist

- ALAB:US Astera Labs - watch (medium) - Astera Labs sells PCIe, CXL and Ethernet connectivity silicon for AI racks; Q2 revenue was $392M (+105% y/y) and Q3 guidance is EPS $1.16-1.21 on consensus revenue of about $551M. It launched Aries 7 (PCIe 7) on Oct 8, the same day it fell 9.2% on the FT OpenAI revenue report; Northland downgraded to Market Perform Oct 9. Monday Oct 12 it fell another 5.3% to $324.11 as the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 2.67% on China's CXMT DRAM news, with no company-specific news found. Down 15.2% since the Oct 7 close of $382.25 and four of the last five sessions. Consensus target $391.77 (26 analysts, Buy), 21% upside.
- AVGO:US Broadcom - accumulate (medium) - Broadcom supplies custom AI accelerators (Google, Meta, OpenAI's Jalapeno) plus Ethernet networking and VMware software. The WSJ reported Oct 7 that it is lining up $50B+ of financing so OpenAI can buy its chips; the FT's Oct 8 report that OpenAI's annualised revenue is about $50B knocked it 4.4%, and Bloomberg's Oct 9 report that OpenAI expects $70B+ by year-end helped a small rebound. Monday Oct 12 it fell 1.88% to $354.73 in a 2.67% chip-index drop led by memory makers on China's CXMT DRAM news; no Broadcom-specific news found. Consensus target $531.31 (50 analysts, Strong Buy), 50% upside.
- CLS:US Celestica - watch (medium) - Celestica designs and builds 800G/1.6T networking switches, servers and storage for hyperscalers and has moved from contract manufacturer to design-led supplier. Q2 2026 revenue was $4.70B, up 62% year on year, operating margin 9.8%, net income $369M; consensus has 2026 revenue +66% and 2027 +72%. Monday Oct 12 it fell 4.05% to $347.50 in the chip selloff (no company news found), its third drop of 4%+ in four sessions. Mean target $473.91 (22 analysts, Strong Buy) implies 36% upside, and the lowest target ($375) is now 8% above the price.
- CRDO:US Credo Technology - watch (medium) - Credo sells active electrical cables, optical DSPs and PCIe/Ethernet retimers that connect GPUs and switches inside AI data centres. Fiscal Q1 2027 (to Aug 1) revenue was $479M, up 115% year on year, gross margin 64.5%, net income $129M; consensus has FY27 revenue +87% to about $2.5B and FY28 +55% to $3.9B. Monday Oct 12 it fell 7.25% to $200.84, the worst move on the watchlist, in a 2.67% chip-index drop; no Credo-specific news found. Mean target $279.09 (20 analysts, Strong Buy) implies 39% upside, range $185-$315.
- SKHY:US SK hynix ADR - buy (high) - SK hynix is the leading HBM supplier to Nvidia and the number-two DRAM maker; the Nasdaq ADR listed in July. The ADR fell 4.02% Monday Oct 12 to $162.23 after China's CXMT said it had made significant progress on a denser 4F2 DRAM cell design and plans DDR5 server modules on it within the year; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 2.67%. Seoul then sold off harder on Tuesday Oct 13: SK hynix fell 10.1% and Samsung 7.4%, and KOSPI closed down 5.5% after a sell-side sidecar and an intraday drop of more than 7%, so expect the ADR to open lower again Tuesday US time. The ADR is 16.9% below its Oct 2 close of $195.13. Consensus target $252.21 (15 analysts, Strong Buy), 55% upside. Status and conviction are unchanged: CXMT's claim is a competitive threat to commodity DRAM, not yet to HBM, and no earnings or guidance has changed; Q3 results later this month are the test.
- BE:US Bloom Energy - watch (medium) - Bloom Energy makes solid-oxide fuel cells for onsite data-centre power; Q2 revenue was a record $1.07B and FY26 guidance is $3.9-4.2B, anchored by Oracle (up to 2.8 GW) and Brookfield ($25B). Monday Oct 12 it fell 6.5% to $262.28, wiping out Friday's 2.8% rebound, as AI-infrastructure names sold off with chips; no company news found. Consensus target $284.74 (29 analysts, Buy) is 8.6% above the price; UBS is at $350 and Bernstein Hold at $282 (both Oct 7). No Q3 date announced yet; it reported Oct 28 last year.
- GEV:US GE Vernova - accumulate (high) - GE Vernova builds gas turbines, grid equipment and wind for the power build-out; Q2 revenue was $11.1B (+22% y/y) with gas capacity largely contracted through 2030. It keeps holding up better than the AI-hardware names: -0.79% Monday Oct 12 to $996.80 while Bloom fell 6.5%, after +0.2% on Oct 8 and +0.5% on Oct 9; no company news found. JPMorgan cut its target to $1,150 from $1,330 on Oct 9, keeping Overweight. Consensus target $1,225 (37 analysts, Buy), 23% upside.
- VRT:US Vertiv - accumulate (medium) - Vertiv sells power, thermal and liquid-cooling gear for data centres; Q2 sales were $3.27B (+24%) and it guided Q3 to $3.65-3.85B and EPS $1.77-1.83, lifting FY26 EPS to $6.65-6.75. Monday Oct 12 it fell 1.41% to $239.36, its third straight small decline, with no company news found. Bernstein reiterated Buy at $368 on Oct 7, a day after GLJ started it at Sell $188. Consensus target $337.43 (30 analysts, Strong Buy), 41% upside. Q3 date not yet announced (Oct 21 or Oct 28 per MarketBeat).
- HOOD:US Robinhood - accumulate (medium) - Robinhood is a retail brokerage adding prediction markets, perpetual futures, earnings contracts and Robinhood Agents (announced Sep 29); Q2 revenue was $1.31B (+32%), net income $561M, with 28.4M funded customers and $368.7B platform assets. Morgan Stanley lifted its target to $160 from $150 (Overweight) on Oct 9. Monday Oct 12 it edged up 0.18% to $109.22 with no company news found. Consensus target $134.68 (30 analysts, Buy), 23% upside. Q3 results are confirmed for Oct 27 after close.
- MELI:US MercadoLibre - accumulate (medium) - MercadoLibre runs Latin America's largest marketplace, logistics network and the Mercado Pago fintech; Q2 net revenue was $10.2B (+50% y/y), GMV $21.9B (+44%), TPV $101B (+56%), with operating income down 17% to $683M and net income down 11% to $466M. The stock is riding Brazil's election: Flavio Bolsonaro led Lula 47.1% to 45.1% in the first round and the first runoff Datafolha poll (Oct 8) has him 52% to 48% of valid votes. Monday Oct 12 it rose 0.14% to $1,892.44 with no company news found, holding an 11.5% gain since Oct 2. Consensus target $2,276 (26 analysts, Buy), 20% upside. IR calendar shows Q3 results Nov 4 (provisional).
- NET:US Cloudflare - accumulate (high) - Cloudflare runs a global edge network selling security, CDN, zero-trust and the Workers developer platform; trailing revenue is $2.51B, up 33.5%. After Friday's 5.6% jump to a 52-week high (Deno team joining, Oppenheimer target $430), it gave back 2.79% Monday Oct 12 to $350.87 with no company news found. The price is still 2.9% above the $341 mean target (34 analysts, Buy); BTIG $413 and Oppenheimer $430 imply 18-23% upside. Q3 results listed for Oct 29 (estimated, not yet confirmed by the company).
- SE:US Sea Limited - accumulate (medium) - Sea runs Shopee (e-commerce), SeaMoney (digital finance) and Garena (games) across Southeast Asia and Brazil; trailing revenue is $27.7B, up 43.1%. Monday Oct 12 it rose 0.66% to $95.88, a second up day, with no company news found; still far below its late-2025 peak. Forward PE is 22 against 40%+ revenue growth, market cap $58B. Mean target $154.93 (29 analysts, Strong Buy) implies 62% upside; DBS Hold $105 and Arete Buy $152 bracket the range.
- 1211:HK BYD - watch (medium) - BYD is the largest NEV maker with in-house batteries and chips and a growing export push; September sales were 463,561 (+17%). Hong Kong closed Monday Oct 12 at HK$74.35 (-1.65%) and was HK$72.85 (-2.02%, about US$9.28 at 7.848 HKD/USD) at 14:48 HKT Tuesday, intraday with the close at 16:00 HKT; that is two days down after Friday's 3.7% gain and 2.0% above the HK$71.40 52-week low. This week: the Paris Motor Show stand (Dolphin G DM-i, its first model designed for Europe, and the Shark pick-up) opened Monday, and the Da Han flagship EV is due to launch in China Tuesday Oct 13 (pre-sale 249,900-299,900 yuan, 1,008 km CLTC); no launch-day coverage or final prices were found at this run. JPMorgan Neutral HK$88 implies 21% upside.
- 6861:JP Keyence - buy (high) - Keyence sells machine-vision, sensors and measurement gear direct to factories with industry-leading margins and no debt; trailing revenue is JPY 1.25T, up 16.9%. Tokyo reopened Tuesday Oct 13 after Monday's Sports Day holiday and Keyence closed at JPY 79,770 (-0.96%, about US$504 at 158.2 JPY/USD), half the Nikkei's 1.9% fall as the Korean chip rout spread. Mean target of JPY 97,867 (15 analysts, Strong Buy) implies 22.7% upside. Fiscal Q2 results listed for Oct 29 (StockAnalysis; treat as TBC).
- ASML:US ASML Holding - buy (high) - ASML is the only supplier of EUV lithography tools for leading-edge chips; Q2 2026 net sales were EUR 9.3B and net income EUR 2.9B, and in July it guided Q3 to EUR 11.0-12.0B sales at a 55-57% gross margin and raised 2026 to EUR 43-45B (54-56% margin). Monday Oct 12 it fell 1.69% to $1,750.24 as the chip index dropped 2.67% on China's CXMT DRAM news; down 6.3% since Oct 2. Mean target $2,099 (42 analysts, Strong Buy) implies 20% upside. Q3 results Wednesday Oct 14, about 07:00 CEST = 16:00 AEDT Wed. Consensus per TradingKey (Oct 12): revenue about EUR 11.6-11.8B (+~55% y/y) and ADR EPS about $12.1-12.5; no bookings consensus published, and ASML no longer reports quarterly bookings, so the 2027 outlook and memory-customer EUV demand are the reads.
- TER:US Teradyne - watch (medium) - Teradyne makes automated test equipment for AI accelerators, HBM memory and mobile chips, plus a robotics arm (Universal Robots, MiR); trailing revenue is $4.46B, up 57.9%. Monday Oct 12 it fell 4.68% to $383.85 as memory names led a 2.67% chip-index drop; it is down 14.5% from the Oct 2 close of $449.04 and has fallen five of the last six sessions. No company news found. Mean target $446.47 (17 analysts, Buy) implies 16% upside; Baird's $420 Neutral is 9% above the price.
- TSLA:US Tesla - watch (medium) - Tesla sells EVs and storage and is pivoting the story to robotaxi (Cybercab) and Optimus; trailing revenue is $103.6B, up 11.8%. Monday Oct 12 it fell 1.22% to $378.03 on volume about 61% below average. MarketBeat reports the Austin robotaxi fleet has passed 300 vehicles (about eightfold in a month) and Tesla is weighing Dallas, and China-made sales rose 5% in September; Jefferies raised its target to $400 from $350 with a Hold. The Cybercab is on show in Europe for the first time at the Paris Motor Show (to Oct 18), with no Europe service announced. Mean target $396.57 (44 analysts) implies 4.9% upside; MarketBeat's consensus is Hold at $412.19. Next: Roadster demo Oct 15, then Q3 results Oct 21 after the US close.

## Bellwether changes

- h100_rental: Silicon Data SDH100RT $2.83/hr as of Oct 11 (+0.7% 7d), first dip in the series this month, down 2c from $2.85 Oct 9. H200 $3.44 (+4.2% 7d) vs $3.39; A100 $1.53 (+0.7%); MI300X $2.64 (0.0%). CME H100/B200 futures: CFTC extended review 45 days, launch Nov 9 or later./bullish -> Silicon Data SDH100RT $2.85/hr as of Oct 12 (+1.1% 7d), back up 2c from $2.83 Oct 11 and level with the Oct 9 high. H200 $3.35 (+1.8% 7d) vs $3.44; A100 $1.51 (+0.7%); MI300X $2.64 (0.0%). CME H100/B200 futures: CFTC review extended, launch Nov 9 or later./bullish
- b200_rental: Silicon Data B200 $5.93 as of Oct 11 (+1.0% 7d), unchanged from Oct 9; B300 $6.67 (+2.2% 7d) vs $6.71. B200/H100 ratio 2.10x (5.93/2.83), up from 2.08x because Hopper dipped. Both well above the $4.50 and 2x triggers./bullish -> Silicon Data B200 $5.94 as of Oct 12 (+1.2% 7d), up 1c from $5.93; B300 $6.65 (+2.5% 7d) vs $6.67. B200/H100 ratio 2.08x (5.94/2.85), down from 2.10x because Hopper recovered. Both still above the $4.50 and 2x triggers./bullish
- hopper_residual: A100 index $1.53 Oct 11 (+0.7% 7d; trigger $1.50), unchanged from Oct 9. Silicon Data residual study (Jan 30 data): used H100 ~65-75% of new at 2 yrs, 45-55% at 3 yrs; median resale mid-$20Ks late-2025, low end $12-16K. No new Hopper impairments or useful-life changes seen Oct 10-12./bullish -> A100 index $1.51 Oct 12 (+0.7% 7d; trigger $1.50), down 2c from $1.53 and one cent above the floor. H200 $3.35, down 9c. Silicon Data residual study (Jan 30 data): used H100 ~65-75% of new at 2 yrs, 45-55% at 3 yrs; low end $12-16K. No new impairments Oct 12-13./bullish
- dc_cost_per_gw: No new campus $/GW prints Oct 10-12 (last: Vera Rubin ~$47B/GW, gas campus ~$60B/GW, Project Jupiter ~$67B/GW). 10-yr Treasury held at Friday's 5.24% par close; bond market shut Monday for Columbus Day. Startup Fortune notes the 10-yr touched 5.304% this month and a $39B auction cleared at 5.30%./neutral -> No new campus $/GW prints Oct 12-13 (last: Vera Rubin ~$47B/GW, gas campus ~$60B/GW, Project Jupiter ~$67B/GW). 10-yr Treasury held at Friday's 5.24%; cash bonds shut Monday for Columbus Day. Intel CEO Oct 12: the challenge is 'capital and the cost of capital'./neutral
- memory_prices: TrendForce spot Oct 12: DDR5 16Gb $59.43 (+0.91%, vs $58.90 Oct 9), DDR4 16Gb $83.89 (+0.29%), DDR4 8Gb $46.08 (-0.23%). Samsung -3.2%, SK hynix -3.6% in Monday's Kospi selloff (2pm). Contract table still 2H Aug. TrendForce 4Q26 DRAM contract +10-15%; 2027 HBM contract +70-140%./bullish -> TrendForce spot Oct 13: DDR5 16Gb $59.90 (+0.79%), new high; DDR4 16Gb $83.86 (+0.06%); DDR4 8Gb $46.06 (-0.05%). Samsung -7.4%, SK hynix -10.1% at Tuesday's close on CXMT's 4F2 server DDR5 plan; MU -3.9% Monday. Contract table still 2H Aug; TrendForce 4Q26 DRAM contract +10-15%./bullish
- power_bottleneck: No new Texas prints Oct 10-12: ERCOT 474 GW large-load queue (420.8 GW data centres), TCEQ data-centre permit freeze since Sep 21, compliance report due Oct 19, ERCOT review targeted by December. Texas Water Development Board progress report due Oct 14. PJM capacity advisory in effect Oct 12-13. GE Vernova 116 GW gas backlog unchanged./bullish -> FERC (Oct 9 order) rejected PJM's interim large-load service, which let data centres connect without new capacity if curtailable, and its bring-your-own-capacity rules; approved the large-load definition and registry. ERCOT 474 GW large-load queue; TCEQ freeze since Sep 21, report Oct 19; TWDB report Oct 14./bullish
- capex_vs_backlog: OpenAI annualised revenue 'approaching $50B' (FT, Oct 8) vs ~$70B assumed; Bloomberg says $70B+ by year-end. AI-related debt issuance fell to $23B in September from $113B in June (Morgan Stanley via FT). Nvidia in early talks to buy or deepen its stake in Reflection AI (FT, Oct 10). Anthropic investor session Oct 14./neutral -> OpenAI annualised revenue 'approaching $50B' (FT, Oct 8) vs ~$70B assumed. AI-related debt issuance $23B in Sept vs $113B in June. Broadcom and Intel CEOs (Oct 12): capital may bind before chips; banks preparing ~$60B for Broadcom-linked AI equipment (Bloomberg via MLQ). Anthropic investor day Wed US./neutral
- neocloud_credit: CRWV no trade since Oct 9 ($82.08). CoreWeave-leased paper prices at 7.00-9.875% vs 5.70-7.875% for hyperscaler-leased bonds (CCIR). Oracle Jupiter loans quoted 89-91c in September; Oracle 5-yr CDS ~151bp early Oct. Banks exploring risk transfers on $38B Oracle-leased campus debt. CoreWeave debt ~$35B./neutral -> CRWV ~$80, down ~2% in Monday trading; Nebius down 3-5% (24/7 Wall St.). No new bond quotes: CoreWeave-leased paper 7.00-9.875% vs 5.70-7.875% hyperscaler-leased (CCIR); Oracle Jupiter loans 89-91c in Sept; Oracle 5-yr CDS ~151bp early Oct; banks exploring risk transfer on $38B Oracle-leased debt./neutral
- nvidia_dc: NVDA no trade since Fri Oct 9 (-0.5%, two-day -3.4%). FT Oct 10: Nvidia in early talks to acquire Reflection AI or invest more (already $800M; Reflection valued $25B in March); acqui-hire structure possible. DC rev $89.0B (+117%), GM 75.0%, Q3 guide $108B, $150B buyback unchanged. No China/export news./bullish -> NVDA about -1.3% Monday (MarketBeat) as the SOX fell 2.67%, its fourth straight loss, on CXMT memory fears. MarketBeat flags Microsoft leaning more on in-house Maia chips for inference. Reflection AI talks still preliminary. DC rev $89.0B (+117%), GM 75.0%, Q3 guide $108B, $150B buyback unchanged. No China news./bullish

## Calendar changes

- 2026-10-13-aapl-home-products: 2026-10-13 9:00 a.m. ET Tue Oct 13 (00:00 AEDT Wed Oct 14); press-only 'Apple Experience' in Tribeca, New York; livestream not confirmed -> 2026-10-13 9:00 a.m. ET Tue Oct 13 (00:00 AEDT Wed Oct 14); press-only 'Apple Experience' in Tribeca, New York
- added 2026-10-21 META Meta Q3 2026 results and call (confirmed Oct 12)
- added 2026-10-21 TXN Texas Instruments Q3 2026 results and call
- added 2026-10-14 MACRO China September trade data (customs): exports seen +25.5% y/y, imports +24.5%, surplus $118.1B
- 2026-10-13-rba-minutes: 2026-10-13 11:30 AEDT Tue (20:30 ET Mon) -> 2026-10-13 Released 11:30 AEDT Tue (20:30 ET Mon)

## New news (13)

- 2026-10-13 [negative] TSM: Taiex falls 1.95% and TSMC 2.0% in Taipei two days before Q3 results - The Taiex closed down 960.65 points at 48,341.31 on NT$1.13 trillion turnover, and TSMC's local shares fell 1.97%, following Korea's chip rout. TSMC reports Q3 on Thu Oct 15 at 17:00 AEDT. <https://focustaiwan.tw/business/202610130010>
- 2026-10-12 [negative] MU: Micron falls 3.9% and the chip index 2.7% on CXMT competition fears - The Philadelphia Semiconductor index fell for a fourth straight session. Micron dropped 3.9% and SanDisk 6.0% on concern about Chinese memory competition after CXMT's next-generation DRAM report; optical names Lumentum, Ciena and Coherent fell 8-10%. The S&P 500 was flat, the Nasdaq fell 0.4% and the Dow rose 0.4% in the lightest volume of the year. <https://pro.thestreet.com/market-commentary/chip-selloff-keeps-a-lid-on-indices-despite-another-day-of-broader-gains>
- 2026-10-12 [positive] META: Meta rises 3.4% after Zuckerberg says it has caught up with rivals on frontier AI models - Meta was the standout gainer among large-cap tech on Monday after Zuckerberg said the company has caught up on frontier models and hinted at a strong upcoming model. The communications sector led the S&P 500, up about 1%. <https://investrade.com/market-review-october-12-2026/>
- 2026-10-11 [neutral] AMZN: WSJ: Amazon in talks to buy AI chip-software startup Decart for about $7 billion - Decart's software helps AI models run across Nvidia GPUs, Google TPUs and Amazon's Trainium. It was valued near $4 billion in May, when it raised $300 million with Nvidia as a new investor; Anthropic dropped a roughly $6 billion bid last month. No deal is signed; Amazon shares fell 1.1% Monday. <https://kfgo.com/2026/10/11/amazon-in-talks-to-buy-ai-startup-decart-for-around-7-billion-wsj-reports/>
- 2026-10-12 [positive] ANTHROPIC: HCLTech signs a Global Premier Partnership with Anthropic and sets up a dedicated Claude business unit - HCLTech (223,000+ staff, $14.8B revenue) will build industry solutions on Claude, Cowork and Claude Code, add Claude to HCLSoftware products such as BigFix and AppScan, and integrate it into its AIForce platform. No financial terms disclosed. Announced two days before Anthropic's pre-IPO investor day on Wed Oct 14. <https://upstox.com/news/market-news/stocks/hcl-tech-announces-global-premier-partnership-with-anthropic-all-you-need-to-know/article-201699/>
- 2026-10-12 [neutral] AAPL: Gurman: Apple's home hub will be called HomeView and ship mid-November; event is 00:00 AEDT Wed - Reports ahead of the Oct 13 'Welcome home' event (9:00 a.m. ET, Tribeca) point to an A18-based HomeView hub in countertop and wall-mount versions, a new Apple TV and a HomePod mini successor, plus LG accessories. No prices reported; Apple has confirmed only the event. Apple rose 1.29% Monday. <https://www.techtimes.com/articles/328898/20261012/apple-homeview-smart-home-hub-will-ship-out-next-month-what-expect.htm>
- 2026-10-12 [neutral] ASML: ASML Q3 preview: consensus about EUR 11.6-11.8B revenue and $12.1-12.5 ADR EPS; results 16:00 AEDT Wed - Revenue would be up about 55% y/y, inside the EUR 11.0-12.0B guide. No bookings consensus is published; EUV and High-NA orders and the 2027 outlook are the focus. TipRanks average target $2,470.81 from six Buy ratings. ASML closed Monday at $1,750.24 (-1.69%). <https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/stocks/us-stocks/262211059-asml-q3-earnings-preview-revenue-tradingkey>
- 2026-10-12 [negative] MACRO: CXMT targets 4F2 server DDR5 RDIMMs by year-end; TrendForce calls the date ambitious - CXMT's president set out the 4F2 architecture on Oct 10; the move from 6F2 could lift density 30-50%. TrendForce says launch does not mean volume production. CXMT held 9.5% of 2Q26 DRAM revenue. <https://www.trendforce.com/news/2026/10/12/news-cxmt-accelerates-4f%C2%B2-dram-push-eyes-year-end-server-ddr5-rdimm-launch/>
- 2026-10-12 [negative] MACRO: Intel and Broadcom CEOs say capital, not chips, may be AI's bottleneck - Intel's Lip-Bu Tan: 'If there's any challenge in the front, it's capital and the cost of capital.' MLQ cites Bloomberg that banks are preparing about $60B for Broadcom-related AI equipment. <https://mlq.ai/news/intel-and-broadcom-ceos-warn-capital-not-chips-could-constrain-ai-buildout/>
- 2026-10-12 [neutral] MACRO: FERC rejects the core of PJM's large-load plan, keeps the registry - The Oct 9 order threw out interim service that would have let data centres connect without new capacity if curtailable, and bring-your-own-capacity rules, citing state jurisdiction. <https://www.utilitydive.com/news/ferc-pjm-large-load-interconnection-iras-byonc/832716/>
- 2026-10-13 [negative] MACRO: KOSPI closes down 5.47% as SK hynix falls 10% and Samsung 7.4% on CXMT memory fears; Taiex -1.95% - KOSPI fell 348.9 points to 6,035.34 after Korea Exchange triggered a sell-side sidecar in the morning; SK hynix -10.09%, Samsung -7.38%. Taiwan's Taiex closed -1.95% at 48,341.31 (Focus Taiwan) and the Nikkei fell about 1.8% on its return from the holiday. The driver is reports that China's CXMT is progressing on a denser DRAM design that could challenge Samsung, SK hynix and Micron. <https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/30862>
- 2026-10-13 [negative] RBA: RBA minutes: unanimous hike to 4.60%, AI-boom cost pressures among the reasons, further increases if required - The Board said the risks flagged in August had materialised: a broader Middle East conflict lifting oil, global cost pressures and tighter domestic capacity, and that the cash rate might not have been high enough. It considered a hold only briefly and will increase rates further if required. Markets were pricing about another 15bp by year-end. <https://investinglive.com/central-banks/rba-minutes-show-three-reasons-for-hike-to-4-60-and-leave-door-open-to-further-increases/>
- 2026-10-13 [negative] FED: Fed's Hammack wants to reach restrictive 'relatively quickly'; futures see about 85% odds of a December hike - Cleveland Fed President Hammack said Monday the Fed should move relatively quickly toward a restrictive stance, preferring smaller, faster adjustments. CME FedWatch on Oct 13 priced more than 80.6% for a hold on Oct 28 and about 84.7% for a hike in December. Japan's September wholesale prices rose 6.8% y/y; the yen was near 158.25. <https://fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-strengthens-despite-softer-ppi-data-202610130250>

## Notes

Monday US session (Columbus Day, bonds shut) plus Tuesday Asia. US prices are Monday Oct 12 closes from stockanalysis.com history pages. AXOS trades as AX: the holdings agent's lookups failed on the AXOS symbol; Monday close taken from stockanalysis.com/stocks/ax (+0.53%). LDI price derived from Friday's close and the +3.61% change.

Korea: KOSPI close -5.47% to 6,035 (TokenPost; Etoday -5.46%), SK hynix -10.09%, Samsung -7.38%. Intraday figures (more than 6%, 7.4%) and an Investing.com -5.8% were dropped in favour of the close. Nikkei about -1.8% is Trading Economics CFD-based; Shanghai figure conflicting (-1% vs +0.06%); Hang Seng and BYD are intraday Tuesday. Keyence USD conversion approximate (x-rates page timestamp unreliable).

No take, watchlist status or bellwether signal changes. A100 index $1.51 is one cent above the $1.50 floor that would move hopper_residual to neutral.

Calendar: Meta Q3 confirmed Oct 21 (company release Oct 12), moved off the shared Oct 28 entry, which is now Microsoft-only (TBC). TI Oct 21 added. China September trade data is Wed Oct 14 (Reuters poll), time TBC. Bank release times unverified (days confirmed). Intel Oct 29, ServiceNow Oct 28, SAP Oct 21 and RBA Nov 3 not added (third-party only).

Skipped: Micron buyback raised to $35.16B in its 10-K and Cantor's Alphabet target $420 (sources not opened); MarketBeat Nvidia/Maia and Tesla robotaxi items (content-farm). Not found: Netflix cut confirmation, OpenAI round close, Stripe mark, Cursor, Spotify, BYD Da Han launch prices, White House follow-up on Claude.

Open: bank results tonight; Apple Wed 00:00 AEDT; China CPI/PPI and trade Wed; ASML Wed 16:00 AEDT; CPI Wed 23:30 AEDT (headline +0.58% m/m, 3.64% y/y; core +0.21%, 2.40%); Anthropic Wed US; TSMC Thu 17:00 AEDT.

Nothing here is financial advice. Holdings and opinions are my own; the "agent" sections are written by an automated research skill and may be wrong. Built 2026-10-13 13:50 UTC.