← research log

# Research run 2026-10-14T07:45 UTC

## What changed

- ASML beat on profit, raised its 2026 guide to EUR 44-45B and said 2027-28 tool supply will fall short of AI demand.
- Micron fell 3.6%, a third straight loss, as Taiwan plant workers voted 99% to authorise a strike; Korea's bounce faded Wednesday.
- Banks beat but sold off as JPMorgan missed; Rocket hit a 52-week low, loanDepot fell 4.8% and Figure 4.3%.
- Meta rose 2.6% after launching Muse Wonder, its first frontier model, on top of Monday's 3.4% gain.
- China's September exports rose 36% against 25.5% expected; factory prices rose 5.0%, the fastest since 2022.
- Next: US CPI 23:30 AEDT tonight (core seen +0.2%), Anthropic investor session Thu AEDT, TSMC results Thu 17:00 AEDT.

## Market summary

Tuesday's US session ended flat: S&P 500 -0.02% to 7,805, Nasdaq -0.15% to 27,204, Dow -0.35% (-180 pts) to 51,670, as the chip index fell a fifth straight day (Applied Materials -6.5%, Roundhill memory ETF -3.5% on CXMT worries) while Meta rose 2.5%; the 10-year Treasury eased 3bp to 5.21%, WTI rose 0.8% to $94.45 and Brent slipped 0.6% to about $106, and NY Fed's Williams said one more hike this year is still appropriate but he does not expect another in 2027. Banks beat but sold: all four closed lower (Citi about -5.5%, KBW bank index -1.1%) even though Goldman earned $17.01 a share vs $13.09 expected and Citi $2.85 vs $2.65, while JPMorgan missed ($5.75 adjusted vs about $5.92) and Wells Fargo's revenue and net interest income fell short. Wednesday in Asia the chip rebound faded: KOSPI was up about 1.6% at midday but closed -0.44% at 6,008.81 on foreign selling (KOSDAQ -1.57%), the Nikkei gave up a 0.6% midday gain to end about flat near 67,744, the Hang Seng was about -0.2% near 24,280 in the afternoon, Shanghai about +0.1% at midday and the ASX 200 about -0.7%. China's September exports jumped 36.3% y/y (25.5% expected) and imports 31% (24.5% expected) for a $133.5B surplus, while PPI rose 5.0% y/y (4.5% expected, the fastest since June 2022, on oil and metals) and CPI 0.9% (1.0% expected). ASML reported Q3 sales of EUR 11.66B and a 57.5% gross margin, lifted its 2026 sales guide to EUR 44-45B (from 43-45B), guided Q4 to EUR 14.2-15.2B and said its 2027-28 supply plans will not fully meet demand. In Asian trade Nasdaq 100 futures were +0.3% and S&P 500 futures +0.1%, Brent +1.2% to about $106.86 and WTI +0.8% to $94.96; gold futures were $4,190 and bitcoin about $83,100 late Tuesday ET. Next: Bank of America 21:45 AEDT and Morgan Stanley 22:30 AEDT tonight; US CPI 23:30 AEDT Wed (core seen +0.2% m/m); US open 00:30 AEDT Thu; Beige Book 05:00 AEDT Thu; Anthropic investor session Wed US (Thu AEDT); AU jobs 11:30 AEDT Thu; TSMC 17:00 AEDT Thu; PPI, retail sales and claims 23:30 AEDT Thu; Warsh 14:30 AEDT Fri; options expiry Fri US; FOMC blackout from Sat Oct 17; China Q3 GDP 13:00 AEDT Mon Oct 19; Netflix 07:01 AEDT Wed Oct 21; Meta and TI 07:30, IBM and Lam 08:00, Tesla 08:30 AEDT Thu Oct 22.

## Holdings

- AMZN: hold - Down 0.4% Tuesday, a third small decline. No follow-up found on the WSJ-reported Decart talks (about $7 billion, unsigned). Alexa tablets go on sale today, Wed Oct 14; Q3 about Fri Oct 30 07:00 AEDT. Hold.
- AXOS: hold - Down 0.6% Tuesday on no company news. Bank results were mixed for the sector: JPMorgan missed on EPS for the first time in about three years and cut buybacks, Wells Fargo and Citi beat, and the KBW bank index fell 1.1%. BAC and MS report before tonight's US open (about 22:00-22:45 AEDT), then CPI 23:30 AEDT; Axos fiscal Q1 Fri Oct 30 08:00 AEDT. Hold.
- BABA: hold - US ADR flat (+0.1%) Tuesday. China's September exports rose about 36% against 25.5% expected and factory prices rose 5%, the fastest since June 2022, while consumer prices missed at 0.9%. No company news; China Q3 GDP Mon Oct 19 13:00 AEDT, results Nov 24. Hold.
- ENPH: watch - Up 1.7% Tuesday, recovering part of Monday's 4.0% drop, with no company or policy news. The 10-year Treasury yield sat at 5.21%; US CPI tonight 23:30 AEDT is the rate test. Q3 call Wed Oct 28 07:30 AEDT. Watch.
- FIGR: hold - Fell 4.3% Tuesday with no company news found, giving back Friday's 3.4% gain as mortgage and lending names stayed weak (Rocket hit a 52-week low). The bank index fell 1.1% after JPMorgan's EPS miss. CPI tonight 23:30 AEDT; Q3 date still unannounced. Hold.
- GOOGL: add - Up 0.3% Tuesday, a third straight small gain while the Nasdaq slipped 0.15%. No company news. ASML said AI demand lifted its Q3 profit to a record €5.0 billion and raised guidance, which supports the capex cycle Google Cloud sells into. Q3 results late October. Add stays.
- LDI: trim - Fell 4.8% Tuesday, erasing most of Monday's 3.6% bounce, as Rocket hit a 52-week low after JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley cut targets. Mortgage News Daily's 30-year eased 0.02 points to 7.46%, a two-week low but still near three-year highs. Still below the NYSE one-dollar threshold; CPI tonight 23:30 AEDT. Trim.
- META: hold - Rose 2.6% Tuesday after 3.4% Monday, as Meta launched Muse Wonder, its first frontier model, priced at $4/$20 per million input/output tokens through its API; Meta's benchmark claims are not independently verified. No New Mexico penalty ruling yet (expected by late October). Q3 results Wed Oct 21 after the US close, call 07:30 AEDT Thu Oct 22. Hold.
- MRVL: hold - Up 1.1% Tuesday after Monday's 3.4% fall, with no company news. ASML raised its 2026 guide and said 2027-28 tool supply will not fully meet AI demand. TSMC's Q3 call Thu 17:00 AEDT is the next AI-demand read. Hold.
- MU: hold - Fell 3.6% Tuesday, a third straight loss (about 7% over two sessions), on China's CXMT DRAM push and a 99% vote by workers at Micron's Taoyuan, Taiwan plant to authorise a strike over a demand for 15% of quarterly operating profit; no strike date is set. Korea did not bounce: KOSPI faded from a midday gain to close -0.4% Wednesday, SK hynix -1.7%. DDR5 spot still topped $60 for the first time. Hold, but watch the strike.
- NFLX: hold - Down 0.2% Tuesday. Netflix has still not confirmed the roughly 5% job cuts (about 800 roles) Puck reported and declined to comment. Q3 results Wed Oct 21 07:00 AEDT, guided to $12.86 billion revenue (+12%). Hold into the print.
- NVDA: hold - Up 1.0% Tuesday, recovering most of Monday's 1.3% loss. No update on the FT-reported Reflection AI talks. ASML's Q3 (record €5.0 billion profit, guidance raised on AI demand) supports the supply chain; TSMC's Q3 call Thu 17:00 AEDT, then GTC Berlin Oct 20-22. Hold.
- OPENAI: hold - No close reported for the roughly $30 billion round at about $1.4 trillion pre-money (talks with MGX-led UAE funds and BlackRock per Bloomberg Oct 5), so the mark multiple stays 5.43. Meta's Muse Wonder launch adds a priced frontier-model competitor. Anthropic's investor session Thu AEDT is the next private-AI reference. Hold.
- RKT: watch - Down 0.4% Tuesday to a new 52-week low, a fourth straight decline, after JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley cut their targets; the stock is down 44% this year. Mortgage News Daily's 30-year eased to 7.46%, still near three-year highs. CPI tonight 23:30 AEDT; Q3 around Oct 29. Watch.
- STRIPE: hold - No new round, tender or secondary mark found; the last company tender was February at $159 billion, so the mark multiple stays 2.27. No company news found for Oct 13-14. Hold.
- TSM: add - ADR up 0.2% Tuesday; Taipei shares were flat Wednesday as the Taiex rose 0.6%. ASML, a key TSMC supplier, reported Q3 sales of €11.7 billion and raised guidance on AI demand. TSMC already reported Q3 revenue of about $46.7 billion; results and guidance Thu Oct 15 17:00 AEDT. Add stays.

## Watchlist

- ALAB:US Astera Labs - watch (medium) - Astera Labs sells PCIe, CXL and Ethernet connectivity silicon for AI racks; Q2 revenue was $392M (+105% y/y) and Q3 guidance is EPS $1.16-1.21 on consensus revenue of about $551M. Tuesday Oct 13 it rose 0.40% to $325.41 after trading as low as $300.44, ending a two-day slide; it is 14.9% below the Oct 7 close of $382.25. At OCP it is demonstrating PCIe over optics with Lumentum and Corning (announced Oct 12), with its Scorpio switch in the demo. Consensus target $391.77 (26 analysts, Buy), 20% upside.
- AVGO:US Broadcom - accumulate (medium) - Broadcom supplies custom AI accelerators (Google, Meta, OpenAI's Jalapeno) plus Ethernet networking and VMware software. The WSJ reported Oct 7 that it is lining up $50B+ of financing so OpenAI can buy its chips; the FT's Oct 8 OpenAI revenue report knocked it 4.4%. Tuesday Oct 13 it rose 0.73% to $357.31 while memory names fell again; no Broadcom-specific news found. ASML said Oct 14 its planned tool supply will not meet customer demand in 2027 or 2028, a sign leading-edge chip capacity stays tight. Consensus target $531.31 (50 analysts, Strong Buy), 49% upside.
- CLS:US Celestica - watch (medium) - Celestica designs and builds 800G/1.6T networking switches, servers and storage for hyperscalers. Q2 2026 revenue was $4.70B (+62% y/y); it guided Q3 to $5.25-5.55B revenue and adjusted EPS $2.88-3.08, and raised 2026 to $20.5B revenue (+65%) and $11.30 adjusted EPS (+87%). Tuesday Oct 13 it rose 2.86% to $357.44, recovering from a $325.87 intraday low; no company news found. Mean target $473.91 (22 analysts, Strong Buy) implies 33% upside; the lowest target ($375) is 4.9% above the price.
- CRDO:US Credo Technology - watch (medium) - Credo sells active electrical cables, optical DSPs and PCIe/Ethernet retimers that connect GPUs and switches inside AI data centres. Fiscal Q1 2027 (to Aug 1) revenue was $479M, up 115% year on year, gross margin 64.5%, net income $129M; consensus has FY27 revenue +87% to about $2.5B. Tuesday Oct 13 it fell 1.26% to $198.31 after touching $185.20, a third straight decline; no company news beyond its OCP booth (1.6T module, optical backplane demos Oct 13-15). Mean target $279.09 (20 analysts, Strong Buy) implies 41% upside, range $185-$315.
- SKHY:US SK hynix ADR - buy (high) - SK hynix is the leading HBM supplier to Nvidia and the number-two DRAM maker; the Nasdaq ADR listed in July. After Seoul's 10.1% drop on Tuesday on China's CXMT DRAM claim, the ADR fell 3.19% Tuesday Oct 13 to $157.06, its third straight loss and 19.5% below the Oct 2 close of $195.13. In Seoul on Wednesday Oct 14 SK hynix fell a further 1.66% to 1,419,000 won (intraday low 1,403,000) while Samsung closed flat at 232,000 won, so the selling slowed. ASML said Oct 14 its 2027-28 tool supply will not meet customer demand, which argues against a capex cut by chipmakers. Consensus target $252.21 (15 analysts, Strong Buy), 61% upside. Status and conviction unchanged: CXMT is a commodity-DRAM threat, not yet an HBM one, and no guidance has changed.
- BE:US Bloom Energy - watch (medium) - Bloom Energy makes solid-oxide fuel cells for onsite data-centre power; Q2 revenue was a record $1.07B and FY26 guidance is $3.9-4.2B, anchored by Oracle (up to 2.8 GW) and Brookfield ($25B). Tuesday Oct 13 it rose 0.45% to $263.45 after opening down near $251.55; no company news found. Consensus target $284.74 (29 analysts, Buy) is 8.1% above the price; UBS is at $350 and Bernstein Hold at $282 (both Oct 7). No Q3 date announced yet; it reported Oct 28 last year.
- GEV:US GE Vernova - accumulate (high) - GE Vernova builds gas turbines, grid equipment and wind for the power build-out; Q2 revenue was $11.1B (+22% y/y) with gas capacity largely contracted through 2030. Tuesday Oct 13 it rose 0.73% to $1,004.04, back above $1,000, on a day the Dow fell 0.35% and energy led the S&P sectors; no company news found. JPMorgan cut its target to $1,150 from $1,330 on Oct 9, keeping Overweight. Consensus target $1,225 (37 analysts, Buy), 22% upside.
- VRT:US Vertiv - accumulate (medium) - Vertiv sells power, thermal and liquid-cooling gear for data centres; Q2 sales were $3.27B (+24%) and it guided Q3 to $3.65-3.85B and EPS $1.77-1.83, lifting FY26 EPS to $6.65-6.75. Tuesday Oct 13 it fell 0.86% to $237.29, a fourth straight small decline; at OCP it is presenting on 800 VDC power architectures. Bernstein reiterated Buy at $368 on Oct 7, a day after GLJ started it at Sell $188. Consensus target $337.43 (30 analysts, Strong Buy), 42% upside. Q3 date not yet announced; last quarter's date notice came two weeks before the report.
- HOOD:US Robinhood - accumulate (medium) - Robinhood is a retail brokerage adding prediction markets, perpetual futures, earnings contracts and Robinhood Agents (announced Sep 29); Q2 revenue was $1.31B (+32%), net income $561M. August data (released Sep 10): 28.6M funded customers, $384B platform assets (+8% m/m, +26% y/y), $4.0B net deposits. Tuesday Oct 13 it rose 1.19% to $110.52, a third up day, with no company news found. Morgan Stanley lifted its target to $160 from $150 (Overweight) on Oct 9. Consensus target $134.68 (30 analysts, Buy), 22% upside. Q3 results are confirmed for Oct 27 after close.
- MELI:US MercadoLibre - accumulate (medium) - MercadoLibre runs Latin America's largest marketplace, logistics network and the Mercado Pago fintech; Q2 net revenue was $10.2B (+50% y/y), GMV $21.9B (+44%), TPV $101B (+56%), with operating income down 17% to $683M. The stock is riding Brazil's election: Flavio Bolsonaro leads Lula 52-48 in valid votes in Datafolha (Oct 8) and 52.8-47.2 in AtlasIntel/Bloomberg (Oct 9, 1-point margin). Tuesday Oct 13 it fell 0.87% to $1,876.04 with no company news found. Consensus target $2,276 (26 analysts, Buy), 21% upside. IR calendar shows Q3 results Nov 4 (provisional).
- NET:US Cloudflare - accumulate (high) - Cloudflare runs a global edge network selling security, CDN, zero-trust and the Workers developer platform; trailing revenue is $2.51B, up 33.5%. Tuesday Oct 13 it fell 0.90% to $347.70, a second down day after Friday's 5.6% jump to a 52-week high (Deno team joining, Oppenheimer target $430); no company news found. The price is 2.0% above the $341 mean target (34 analysts, Buy); BTIG $413 and Oppenheimer $430 imply 19-24% upside. Q3 results listed for Oct 29 (estimated, not yet confirmed by the company).
- SE:US Sea Limited - accumulate (medium) - Sea runs Shopee (e-commerce), SeaMoney (digital finance) and Garena (games) across Southeast Asia and Brazil; trailing revenue is $27.7B, up 43.1%. Tuesday Oct 13 it was flat (+0.05%) at $95.93 with no company news found; still far below its late-2025 peak. Forward PE is 22 against 40%+ revenue growth, market cap $58B. Mean target $154.93 (29 analysts, Strong Buy) implies 62% upside; DBS Hold $105 and Arete Buy $152 bracket the range.
- 1211:HK BYD - watch (medium) - BYD is the largest NEV maker with in-house batteries and chips and a growing export push; September sales were 463,561 (+17%). Hong Kong closed Tuesday Oct 13 at HK$73.25 (-1.48%) and was HK$73.15 (-0.14%, about US$9.32 at 7.848 HKD/USD) at 14:49 HKT Wednesday, intraday with the close at 16:00 HKT (19:00 AEDT); that is 2.5% above the HK$71.40 52-week low. The Da Han flagship EV launched Oct 13 at 235,900-275,900 yuan, 14,000-24,000 yuan below its August pre-sale prices, with a 102.3 kWh second-generation Blade battery and 1,008 km CLTC range on the rear-drive versions. JPMorgan Neutral HK$88 implies 20% upside.
- 6861:JP Keyence - buy (high) - Keyence sells machine-vision, sensors and measurement gear direct to factories with industry-leading margins and no debt; trailing revenue is JPY 1.25T, up 16.9%. Wednesday Oct 14 it closed at JPY 80,330 (+0.70%, about US$507 at 158.31 JPY/USD), recovering Tuesday's 0.96% loss. Mean target of JPY 97,867 (15 analysts, Strong Buy) implies 21.8% upside. Fiscal Q2 results listed for Oct 29 (StockAnalysis; treat as TBC).
- ASML:US ASML Holding - buy (high) - ASML is the only supplier of EUV lithography tools for leading-edge chips. Q3 2026 (released Oct 14): net sales EUR 11.66B (record; top half of the EUR 11.0-12.0B guide, a touch under the EUR 11.72B consensus XTB cites), gross margin 57.5% (guide 55-57%), net income EUR 4.96B (vs about EUR 4.1B expected), EPS EUR 12.95; 113 new systems sold vs 86 in Q2; installed-base sales EUR 3.29B. Q4 guide EUR 14.2-15.2B at about 57% margin, so 2026 is now EUR 44-45B (was 43-45B) at about 56%. CEO Fouquet: planned supply for 2027 and 2028 'will not fully meet the demand of our customers', and ASML is studying capacity beyond the planned 30% increase for 2028; some customers want to order for 2029-30. ASML does not report bookings. The ADR fell 1.86% to $1,717.76 Tuesday and Amsterdam closed at EUR 1,509.60 (-4.20%) before the print; first reaction to the results was about -4% (XTB), with Amsterdam opening 18:00 AEDT. Mean target $2,099 (42 analysts, Strong Buy), 22% upside. Status and conviction kept at buy/high: margin, profit and the 2027-28 demand statement all beat the bar; the selling is about price, not the outlook.
- TER:US Teradyne - watch (medium) - Teradyne makes automated test equipment for AI accelerators, HBM memory and mobile chips, plus a robotics arm (Universal Robots, MiR); trailing revenue is $4.46B, up 57.9%. Tuesday Oct 13 it fell 0.93% to $380.29 after an intraday low of $362.54; it is 15.3% below the Oct 2 close of $449.04 and has fallen six of the last seven sessions. No company news found. ASML read-through (Oct 14) is supportive: it says 2027-28 tool supply will fall short of chipmaker demand and lifted 2026 to EUR 44-45B, which points to more wafer capacity to test, though ASML gave no memory-specific comment. Mean target $446.47 (17 analysts, Buy) implies 17% upside; Baird's $420 Neutral is 10% above the price.
- TSLA:US Tesla - watch (medium) - Tesla sells EVs and storage and is pivoting the story to robotaxi (Cybercab) and Optimus; trailing revenue is $103.6B, up 11.8%. Tuesday Oct 13 it fell 0.74% to $375.23, a second straight decline, with no company news found. Tesla's 8-K confirms Q3 results after the close on Wed Oct 21 with a Q&A webcast at 5:30pm ET (08:30 AEDT Thu Oct 22). The Austin robotaxi fleet passed 300 vehicles (MarketBeat) and the Cybercab is on show at the Paris Motor Show (to Oct 18). Mean target $396.57 (44 analysts) implies 5.7% upside. Next: Roadster demo Oct 15 (date per Tesla's Sep 28 reschedule; not reconfirmed this run).

## Bellwether changes

- h100_rental: Silicon Data SDH100RT $2.85/hr as of Oct 12 (+1.1% 7d), back up 2c from $2.83 Oct 11 and level with the Oct 9 high. H200 $3.35 (+1.8% 7d) vs $3.44; A100 $1.51 (+0.7%); MI300X $2.64 (0.0%). CME H100/B200 futures: CFTC review extended, launch Nov 9 or later./bullish -> Silicon Data SDH100RT $2.85/hr as of Oct 13, unchanged from Oct 12 and level with the Oct 9 high; page now shows +7.1% 7d. H200 $3.38 (+3.0% 7d), up 3c; A100 $1.52 (+3.8%), up 1c; MI300X $2.64 (0.0%). CME H100/B200 futures: launch Nov 9 or later./bullish
- b200_rental: Silicon Data B200 $5.94 as of Oct 12 (+1.2% 7d), up 1c from $5.93; B300 $6.65 (+2.5% 7d) vs $6.67. B200/H100 ratio 2.08x (5.94/2.85), down from 2.10x because Hopper recovered. Both still above the $4.50 and 2x triggers./bullish -> Silicon Data B200 $5.95 as of Oct 13 (+4.0% 7d), up 1c from $5.94; B300 $6.65 (+6.3% 7d), unchanged. B200/H100 ratio 2.09x (5.95/2.85), up from 2.08x. Both above the $4.50 and 2x triggers./bullish
- hopper_residual: A100 index $1.51 Oct 12 (+0.7% 7d; trigger $1.50), down 2c from $1.53 and one cent above the floor. H200 $3.35, down 9c. Silicon Data residual study (Jan 30 data): used H100 ~65-75% of new at 2 yrs, 45-55% at 3 yrs; low end $12-16K. No new impairments Oct 12-13./bullish -> A100 index $1.52 Oct 13 (+3.8% 7d; trigger $1.50), up 1c and two cents above the floor. H200 $3.38, up 3c. Silicon Data residual study (Jan 30 data): used H100 ~65-75% of new at 2 yrs, 45-55% at 3 yrs; low end $12-16K. No new impairments Oct 13-14./bullish
- dc_cost_per_gw: No new campus $/GW prints Oct 12-13 (last: Vera Rubin ~$47B/GW, gas campus ~$60B/GW, Project Jupiter ~$67B/GW). 10-yr Treasury held at Friday's 5.24%; cash bonds shut Monday for Columbus Day. Intel CEO Oct 12: the challenge is 'capital and the cost of capital'./neutral -> 10-yr Treasury par yield 5.21% on Oct 13 (Treasury), down 3bp from 5.24% on Oct 9 and 10bp below the Oct 5 high of 5.31%. No new campus $/GW prints (last: Vera Rubin ~$47B/GW, gas campus ~$60B/GW, Project Jupiter ~$67B/GW)./neutral
- memory_prices: TrendForce spot Oct 13: DDR5 16Gb $59.90 (+0.79%), new high; DDR4 16Gb $83.86 (+0.06%); DDR4 8Gb $46.06 (-0.05%). Samsung -7.4%, SK hynix -10.1% at Tuesday's close on CXMT's 4F2 server DDR5 plan; MU -3.9% Monday. Contract table still 2H Aug; TrendForce 4Q26 DRAM contract +10-15%./bullish -> TrendForce spot Oct 14: DDR5 16Gb $60.10 (+0.33%), new high and first print above $60; DDR4 16Gb $83.61 (-0.30%); DDR4 8Gb $45.97 (-0.19%). SK hynix -1.7%, Samsung flat at Wed close after -10.1%/-7.4% Tue; MU -3.6% Tue. Public contract table still 2H Aug./bullish
- capex_vs_backlog: OpenAI annualised revenue 'approaching $50B' (FT, Oct 8) vs ~$70B assumed. AI-related debt issuance $23B in Sept vs $113B in June. Broadcom and Intel CEOs (Oct 12): capital may bind before chips; banks preparing ~$60B for Broadcom-linked AI equipment (Bloomberg via MLQ). Anthropic investor day Wed US./neutral -> ASML Q3 (Oct 14): sales EUR 11.66B, a hair under consensus; GM 57.5%; Q4 guide EUR 14.2-15.2B; 2026 raised to EUR 44-45B. Says planned 2027-28 supply will not meet demand; some customers asking for 2029-30 slots. OpenAI run-rate 'approaching $50B' (FT) vs ~$70B assumed./neutral
- nvidia_dc: NVDA about -1.3% Monday (MarketBeat) as the SOX fell 2.67%, its fourth straight loss, on CXMT memory fears. MarketBeat flags Microsoft leaning more on in-house Maia chips for inference. Reflection AI talks still preliminary. DC rev $89.0B (+117%), GM 75.0%, Q3 guide $108B, $150B buyback unchanged. No China news./bullish -> NVDA +0.97% Tuesday while MU fell 3.6% and the Nasdaq slipped. Agreed a minority stake in Doctolib. Reflection AI talks still preliminary. DC rev $89.0B (+117%), GM 75.0%, Q3 guide $108B, $150B buyback unchanged. No China or export news./bullish

## Calendar changes

- 2026-10-14-asml-q3: 2026-10-14 About 07:00 CEST Wed (16:00 AEDT Wed; 01:00 ET) -> 2026-10-14 Released ~07:00 CEST Wed (16:00 AEDT); Amsterdam opens 09:00 CEST (18:00 AEDT); US ADR opens 00:30 AEDT Thu
- 2026-10-13-aapl-home-products: 2026-10-13 9:00 a.m. ET Tue Oct 13 (00:00 AEDT Wed Oct 14); press-only 'Apple Experience' in Tribeca, New York -> 2026-10-13 Held 9:00 a.m. ET Tue Oct 13 (00:00 AEDT Wed Oct 14)
- 2026-10-13-byd-da-han-launch: 2026-10-13 TBC (China) -> 2026-10-13 Launched Oct 13 (China)
- added 2026-10-30 AAPL Apple HomePod mini 2 ($149) ships
- added 2026-11-13 AAPL Apple HomeView ($299) and Apple TV 4K ($299) ship
- added 2026-11-04 ASML ASML interim dividend EUR 1.88 per share paid
- added 2026-10-14 BAC Bank of America Q3 2026 results and call
- added 2026-10-14 MS Morgan Stanley Q3 2026 results and call
- added 2026-11-03 RBA RBA cash rate decision (Board meets Nov 2-3)

## New news (15)

- 2026-10-13 [negative] MU: Micron Taiwan workers vote 99% to authorise a strike as CXMT fears extend the memory selloff - Workers at Micron's Taoyuan plant voted 99% to authorise a strike, seeking permanent profit-sharing equal to 15% of quarterly operating profit; no strike date was given. Micron fell 3.6% Tuesday, a third straight loss, alongside CXMT's 4F2 DRAM progress. <https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/why-is-micron-technology-stock-sliding-today-93CH-4945811>
- 2026-10-13 [neutral] MACRO: JPMorgan misses on EPS for the first time in about three years; Goldman profit +29%, Wells and Citi beat - JPMorgan earned $15.3B ($5.57/share) vs about $5.93 expected, on weaker bond trading, and cut buybacks; Dimon warned of sticky inflation. Goldman earned $5.29B, Citi profit rose about 40%, Wells $1.87/share beat. Consumers still paying bills. <https://fortune.com/2026/10/13/jpmorgan-goldman-sachs-citigroup-wells-fargo-interest-inflation/>
- 2026-10-13 [negative] RKT: Rocket hits a 52-week low as JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley cut targets; loanDepot -4.8% - Rocket fell 0.4% to a new 52-week low on volume 32% above average, down 44% this year, after JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley lowered price targets. loanDepot fell 4.8%; S&P 500 -0.02%, Nasdaq -0.15%. <https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/stock-market-today-oct-13-215532255.html>
- 2026-10-13 [neutral] LDI: Mortgage News Daily 30-year eases to 7.46%, a two-week low - With the bond market reopened after Columbus Day, MND's 30-year fixed slipped 0.02 points to 7.46% Tuesday, a two-week low, ahead of Wednesday's US CPI. <https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage-rates>
- 2026-10-12 [positive] META: Meta releases Muse Wonder, its first frontier model, at $4/$20 per million tokens - Meta Superintelligence Lab released Muse Wonder (API) and Muse Wonder Full (Muse Code subscribers only). Meta's own tests put them level with leading rival models; not independently verified. Meta rose 2.6% Tuesday after 3.4% Monday. <https://techcrunch.com/2026/10/12/meta-releases-its-first-frontier-model-muse-wonder/>
- 2026-10-14 [negative] ASML: ASML shares fall about 4% in first reaction: sales slightly under the EUR 11.72B consensus, profit well above - XTB: revenue EUR 11.66B vs EUR 11.72B expected; net profit EUR 4.96B vs about EUR 4.1B; gross margin 57.5% vs about 56.1%. Amsterdam had already closed down 4.2% Tuesday at EUR 1,509.60. <https://xtb.com/int/market-analysis/news-and-research/asml-disappoints-on-revenue-but-delivers-stronger-profits-and-raises-guidance-what-s-next-for-the-ai-sector>
- 2026-10-13 [neutral] AAPL: Apple launches HomeView hub ($299, ships Nov 13), Apple TV 4K ($299, Nov 13) and HomePod mini 2 ($149, Oct 30) - Pre-orders opened Oct 13. HomeView runs an A18 chip, comes in tabletop and wall versions (mounts from $59.95) and is not sold in the EU. Siri AI on HomePod mini 2 comes in a later update. Third-party Home Collection accessories from December. Apple closed up 0.09% at $341.27 after trading as high as $348.15. <https://www.macobserver.com/news/homeview-homepod-mini-2-apple-tv-4k-release-dates/>
- 2026-10-13 [neutral] 1211: BYD launches Da Han EV at 235,900-275,900 yuan, up to 24,000 yuan below pre-sale prices - Three versions on a 102.3 kWh second-generation Blade battery; rear-drive versions rated 1,008 km CLTC. Pre-sale prices in August were 249,900-299,900 yuan. Hong Kong shares closed down 1.48% Tuesday at HK$73.25. <https://cnevpost.com/2026/10/13/byd-launches-da-han-ev/>
- 2026-10-12 [negative] 1211: China-EU hybrid deal: EU says imports cut by 'several million cars over four years'; BYD falls 1.8% - BYD is China's largest hybrid exporter to Europe and sold more plug-in hybrids than EVs in the first eight months. Citi says caps, price floors and carve-outs are still being negotiated. <https://kelo.com/2026/10/12/chinas-7-5-billion-eu-hybrid-boom-faces-new-curbs-under-china-eu-deal/>
- 2026-10-13 [neutral] MACRO: US stocks end flat as memory names fall again and banks report: S&P 500 -0.02%, Nasdaq -0.15% - Micron -3.62% on the China DRAM news; 10-year yield 5.24%; energy led the sectors. Watchlist chip names were mixed: Celestica +2.9%, Astera +0.4%, Credo -1.3%, Teradyne -0.9%. <https://www.fool.com/coverage/stock-market-today/2026/10/13/stock-market-today-oct-13-markets-edge-lower-as-earnings-season-kicks-off/>
- 2026-10-12 [neutral] ALAB: Astera Labs, Lumentum and Corning demo PCIe over optics at OCP using Astera's Scorpio switch - Demo of 1060 nm VCSEL-based optical PCIe links for rack-scale AI, on show Oct 12-15. Shares rose 0.4% Tuesday after an intraday low of $300.44. <https://investor.lumentum.com/financial-news-releases/news-details/2026/Lumentum-Astera-Labs-and-Corning-to-Demonstrate-1060-nm-VCSEL-Based-PCIe-over-Optics-for-AI-Rack-Scale-Connectivity-at-the-2026-OCP-Global-Summit/default.aspx>
- 2026-10-09 [positive] MELI: AtlasIntel/Bloomberg runoff poll: Flavio Bolsonaro 52.8%, Lula 47.2% of valid votes - Total votes 51.1% to 45.7%, margin of error 1 point. Second poll to show Bolsonaro ahead before the Oct 25 runoff. <https://www.moneytimes.com.br/pesquisa-atlasintel-9-de-outubro-gaep/>
- 2026-10-14 [positive] ASML: ASML Q3 sales EUR 11.66B, a hair under consensus; says 2027-28 supply will not meet AI demand - Net income EUR 4.96B and gross margin 57.5%, above the 55-57% guide. Q4 guided to EUR 14.2-15.2B and 2026 raised to EUR 44-45B from EUR 43-45B. CEO Christophe Fouquet said customers keep raising forecasts on AI investment, some want 2029-30 orders, and ASML is studying capacity beyond its planned 30% increase for 2028. No quarterly bookings are published any more. US-listed shares fell about 3% overnight; Micron, SanDisk and Intel fell 1-2.6%. <https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/asml-raises-sales-forecast-third-061145434.html>
- 2026-10-14 [positive] MACRO: China's September exports jump 36.3% y/y, imports 31%; surplus $133.5B - Both beat forecasts (Reuters poll 25.5% and 24.5%) and accelerated from August's 25% and 28.2%. Export growth was the fastest since February. The nine-month surplus reached $938B, on track to top last year's $1.2 trillion record. The IMF cut its 2026 China growth forecast 0.1 point to 4.5%. <https://www.clickondetroit.com/business/2026/10/14/chinas-exports-surge-363-in-september-as-pressure-ramps-up-to-rebalance-trade/>
- 2026-10-14 [neutral] MACRO: China PPI rises 5.0% y/y in September, fastest since June 2022; CPI 0.9%, just under forecast - Producer prices beat the 4.5% forecast and rose 1.2% on the month, the largest monthly gain since April, on crude oil and non-ferrous metals. Consumer prices rose 0.9% y/y vs 1.0% expected and 0.2% m/m. Factory-gate inflation in China adds to global goods-price pressure ahead of US CPI tonight. <https://www.gurufocus.com/news/9122609/chinas-september-2026-inflation-data-highlights-rising-producer-prices-cny-reacts>

## Notes

Tuesday US session plus Wednesday Asia and ASML Q3. US prices are Tuesday Oct 13 closes (stockanalysis.com; AXOS via the AX page). 10-year 5.21% from the Treasury par curve (one agent had 5.22%).

Korea: early reports of a 2-3% rebound were superseded by the close (KOSPI -0.44% to 6,008.81, SK hynix -1.66%, Samsung flat; Seoul Economic Daily / stockanalysis KRX). Nikkei about flat (Trading Economics, conflicting lines); Hang Seng, Shanghai, ASX 200 and BYD are intraday. Taiex +0.59% from the holdings agent; Shenzhen and HS Tech closes not found.

ASML: asml.com, GlobeNewswire and CNBC blocked; figures from Yahoo Finance and XTB (both agree with a StockTitan copy of the release). No bookings disclosed. Call details (about 65 EUV systems in 2026, China about 20%) are from an AI-assisted transcript summary and were not published. Share reaction about -4% (XTB, first reaction); the Amsterdam close is not in yet.

Banks: index levels and US closes for S&P/Nasdaq/Dow from search-visible CNBC figures that reconcile with Monday's closes and an opened Investopedia/Fool wrap. Chip-index % for Tuesday not found (fifth straight decline). FOMC odds not refreshed after Tuesday.

No take, watchlist status or bellwether signal changes. DDR4 16Gb spot fell for the first time in the series (-0.30%); A100 $1.52, two cents above the $1.50 floor.

Calendar: BAC (confirmed on its newsroom) and MS (time from search results) tonight; RBA Nov 2-3 meeting added (time TBC); Apple ship dates and ASML dividend added; ASML, Apple event and BYD Da Han entries updated with outcomes.

Skipped: Truist and Pivotal Meta targets, BofA Nvidia reiteration, Alibaba HK midday +3.45%, Broadcom CEO 'casino' remark, EU 350,000 hybrid cap (sources not opened); duplicate ASML items. Not found: Waller's AI remarks, Anthropic session details (not yet held), Netflix cut confirmation, OpenAI round close, Stripe mark, Cursor, Spotify.

Nothing here is financial advice. Holdings and opinions are my own; the "agent" sections are written by an automated research skill and may be wrong. Built 2026-10-14 13:52 UTC.