# Research run 2026-10-15T07:50 UTC ## What changed - Hot US CPI (3.7%, core 2.6%) sank the Nasdaq 1.9% and chips 4.3%; Marvell -8.7%, loanDepot -10.7%, Enphase -8.4%. - Asia chip rout Thursday: KOSPI -7.6% after a circuit breaker, SK hynix -11%, Nikkei -4.9%; Micron moved from hold to watch. - TSMC beat after Taipei closed: Q4 guided to $52.3-54.3B against $48.8B expected; the ADR reacts from 00:30 AEDT Fri. - CoreWeave fell 15% as its 2032 bonds dropped below 78c; the neocloud-credit bellwether flips to bearish. - Anthropic reportedly told investors Q3 revenue was $16.8B and adjusted-profitable; IPO marketing could start the week of Nov 9. - Next: US PPI and retail sales 23:30 AEDT tonight; China Q3 GDP Mon 13:00 AEDT; Netflix results Wed 07:00 AEDT. ## Market summary US September CPI came in hot: headline +0.6% m/m and 3.7% y/y (3.6% expected, 3.4% in August), core +0.3% m/m and 2.6% y/y (0.2% and 2.5% expected), with gasoline +9.1% m/m doing over half the work; CME FedWatch odds of an Oct 28 hike rose to about 32-37% from 22% (briefly near 49%). Wednesday's US close: S&P 500 -1.11% to 7,718.94, Nasdaq -1.88% to 26,692.87 (worst day since July 23), Dow -0.09% to 51,621.48; the chip index fell 4.3% for a sixth straight loss and AI-debt names were hit hardest (CoreWeave -15%, Nebius -10%, Oracle -8.8%, Dell -11.4%, Nvidia about -3%, Micron about -4%); Bank of America fell 4.8% after a $1.2B money-laundering fine cut EPS to $0.91, and Morgan Stanley about -3% despite EPS of $3.03 (from $2.80). Thursday in Asia the chip rout spread: KOSPI -7.57% to 5,554.22 after a 20-minute circuit breaker (SK hynix and Samsung down about 10-11%), Nikkei -4.90% to 64,425.95 (SoftBank -9%, Kioxia -11%), Taiex -3.41% to 46,969.87, Shanghai about -1.6% and Shenzhen about -1.9% to their lowest since August 2025, Hang Seng about -1.3% in the afternoon and the ASX 200 only -0.1% at 8,715.6; an IMF report warned an AI correction would hit Asia hardest. Australia lost 39,300 jobs in September against a 19,600 gain expected, unemployment held at 4.7% (4.6% expected) and participation fell to 66.8%, trimming the case for a November RBA hike. TSMC reported a sixth straight record quarter after the Taipei close, net profit NT$763.06B (+68.7% y/y, above estimates); its shares had fallen 2.2% before the release. At 17:52 AEDT S&P 500 futures were -0.4%, Nasdaq 100 -1.1% and Dow +0.1%; Brent was about $104.7 and WTI $94.1 (both about -1.3%) after settling near $106.06 and $95.09 Wednesday on a Houthi strike on an Aramco office building; gold futures about $4,160 (+1.3%); bitcoin about $80,850 (-3.2% in 24h). Next: US PPI, retail sales, jobless claims, Philly Fed and Empire State 23:30 AEDT tonight; US open 00:30 AEDT Fri; Fed's Hammack 07:30 AEDT Fri; Warsh with the IMF's Georgieva 14:30 AEDT Fri; options expiry Fri US (07:00 AEDT Sat close); FOMC blackout from Sat Oct 17; China Q3 GDP 13:00 AEDT Mon Oct 19; Netflix 07:01 AEDT Wed Oct 21; Meta and TI 07:30, IBM and Lam 08:00, Tesla 08:30 AEDT Thu Oct 22; AU CPI 11:30 AEDT Wed Oct 28; Fed decision 05:00 AEDT Thu Oct 29; Alphabet 07:30 AEDT Thu Oct 29 and Microsoft the same evening US; US Q3 GDP and September PCE 23:30 AEDT Thu Oct 29. ## Holdings - AMZN: hold - Down 1.7% Wednesday, a fourth straight decline, in line with the hot-CPI tech selloff (Nasdaq -1.9%). No follow-up found on the WSJ-reported Decart talks (about $7 billion, unsigned). PPI, retail sales and claims tonight 23:30 AEDT; Q3 about Fri Oct 30 07:00 AEDT. Hold. - AXOS: hold - Down 2.0% Wednesday as hot CPI (3.7% y/y, core 2.6%) lifted Fed hike odds and banks sold off: Bank of America fell 4.8% on a revenue miss and a $1.2 billion-plus fine. Futures put about 37% odds on an Oct 28 hike. PPI and retail sales tonight 23:30 AEDT; Axos fiscal Q1 Fri Oct 30 08:00 AEDT. Hold. - BABA: hold - US ADR up 0.3% Wednesday, one of few gainers. Hong Kong turned lower Thursday on US rate-hike bets: Alibaba was down nearly 2% at the open and the Hang Seng closed down 1.4%. No company news; China Q3 GDP Mon Oct 19 13:00 AEDT. Hold. - ENPH: watch - Fell 8.4% Wednesday, wiping out Tuesday's 1.7% gain, as the hot CPI hit rate-sensitive names. The 10-year yield spiked above 5.32% before easing to about 5.19%. Q3 call Wed Oct 28 07:30 AEDT. Watch. - FIGR: hold - Fell 8.1% Wednesday after 4.3% Tuesday, about 12% in two sessions, and is back near its 52-week low with no company news found. Mortgage News Daily's 30-year actually eased to 7.45%, so this was risk-off selling, not a rate move. PPI tonight 23:30 AEDT; Q3 date still unannounced. Hold, but this is close to a watch. - GOOGL: add - Down 1.7% Wednesday, slightly better than the Nasdaq's 1.9%. No company news. TSMC's Q3 beat and Q4 guide of $52.3-54.3 billion (about 14% higher at the midpoint) show AI chip demand still rising, which supports the Google Cloud and TPU build-out. Q3 results Oct 28. Add stays. - LDI: trim - Fell 10.7% Wednesday, a second straight heavy loss (about 15% over two sessions), even though Mortgage News Daily's 30-year eased 0.01 points to 7.45%. Hot CPI (core 2.6%) pushed Fed hike odds to about 91% by December, which keeps mortgage rates near three-year highs. Still below the NYSE one-dollar threshold. Trim. - META: hold - Fell 3.3% Wednesday, giving back Tuesday's 2.6% Muse Wonder gain as communication services fell 1.7%. No New Mexico privacy penalty ruling found yet. Q3 results Wed Oct 21 after the US close, call 07:30 AEDT Thu Oct 22. Hold. - MRVL: hold - Fell 8.7% Wednesday with no company news found, as the chip index dropped 4.3% for a sixth straight day and AI-infrastructure names sold off (CoreWeave -15%, Oracle -8.8%). TSMC's Thursday results support custom-chip demand: HPC rose to 68% of revenue and Q4 is guided about 14% higher. Hold. - MU: watch - Moved from hold: fell 4.1% Wednesday, a fourth straight loss and about 11% since Oct 9, and the memory rout deepened in Asia Thursday as KOSPI closed down 7.6% after a circuit breaker, with SK hynix -11% and Samsung about -10%. TSMC's strong AI outlook has not lifted memory names, though DDR5 spot set another high. Taiwan union rally Mon Oct 19, mediation Thu Oct 22. Watch. - NFLX: hold - Up 0.2% Wednesday on a down day. Co-CEOs Sarandos and Peters confirmed about 6% job cuts (nearly 1,000 roles, mostly product, tech, legal and HR), the largest since 2022, and said the company is on track for its full-year forecast. Q3 results Wed Oct 21 07:00 AEDT. Hold into the print. - NVDA: hold - Fell 3.2% Wednesday on hot CPI, IDC data showing its China AI-chip share fell to 34% in the first half, and Microsoft's Maia 300 in-house chip plan for 2027. TSMC's Thursday beat (HPC 68% of revenue, Q4 guided about 14% higher) supports demand. GTC Berlin Oct 20-22. Hold. - OPENAI: hold - No close reported for the roughly $30 billion round at about $1.4 trillion pre-money, so the mark multiple stays 5.43. At Anthropic's Oct 14 investor session it reportedly showed Q3 revenue of $16.8 billion (+45% q/q) and an adjusted profit, a high bar for OpenAI's round. Hold. - RKT: watch - Down 2.8% Wednesday, a fifth straight decline and another 52-week low, even as Mortgage News Daily's 30-year eased to 7.45%. Hot CPI raised December hike odds to about 91%, which keeps refinancing demand weak. PPI and retail sales tonight 23:30 AEDT; Q3 around Oct 29. Watch. - STRIPE: hold - No new round, tender or secondary mark found; the last company tender was February at $159 billion, so the mark multiple stays 2.27. No company news found for Oct 14-15. Hold. - TSM: add - TSMC beat Thursday: Q3 revenue $46.72 billion (+41% y/y) above its $44.6-45.8 billion guide, gross margin 66.4% within 65-67%, EPS up 69%, and Q4 guided to $52.3-54.3 billion at 65-67% margin. The ADR fell 3.4% Wednesday and Taipei shares 2.0% Thursday, both before the release; the ADR reacts from 00:30 AEDT Fri. Add stays. ## Watchlist - ALAB:US Astera Labs - watch (medium) - Astera Labs sells PCIe, CXL and Ethernet connectivity silicon for AI racks; Q2 revenue was $392M (+105% y/y) and Q3 guidance is EPS $1.16-1.21 on consensus revenue of about $551M. Wednesday Oct 14 it fell 7.72% to $300.28, closing near the day's low of $299.19, as hot US CPI (3.7% vs 3.6% expected) hit AI-infrastructure names; no company news found. It is 21.4% below the Oct 7 close of $382.25. TSMC (Oct 15) beat on Q3 (revenue $46.72B vs a $44.6-45.8B guide, HPC 68% of revenue, +22% q/q) and guided Q4 to $52.3-54.3B vs about $48.8B expected; 2026 capex stays $60-64B as far as reported (Q3 spend $13.84B, $40.64B year to date), which supports AI-rack connectivity demand into year-end. Consensus target $391.77 (26 analysts, Buy), 30% upside. - AVGO:US Broadcom - accumulate (medium) - Broadcom supplies custom AI accelerators (Google, Meta, OpenAI's Jalapeno) plus Ethernet networking and VMware software. The WSJ reported Oct 7 that it is lining up $50B+ of financing so OpenAI can buy its chips. Wednesday Oct 14 it fell 3.10% to $346.25 in the CPI-driven tech selloff (Nasdaq -1.9%), a smaller drop than the 6-10% losses in the smaller AI-infrastructure names; no Broadcom-specific news found. TSMC (Oct 15) beat on Q3 (revenue $46.72B vs a $44.6-45.8B guide, HPC 68% of revenue, +22% q/q) and guided Q4 to $52.3-54.3B vs about $48.8B expected; 2026 capex stays $60-64B as far as reported (Q3 spend $13.84B, $40.64B year to date); HPC, where custom ASICs sit, is now 68% of TSMC revenue. Consensus target $531.31 (50 analysts, Strong Buy), 53% upside. - CLS:US Celestica - watch (medium) - Celestica designs and builds 800G/1.6T networking switches, servers and storage for hyperscalers. Q2 2026 revenue was $4.70B (+62% y/y); it guided Q3 to $5.25-5.55B revenue and adjusted EPS $2.88-3.08, and raised 2026 to $20.5B revenue (+65%) and $11.30 adjusted EPS (+87%). Wednesday Oct 14 it fell 9.55% to $323.32, giving back Tuesday's gain, in the CPI-driven AI-hardware selloff; no company news found. Q3 results are confirmed for Mon Oct 26 after close, with the call and an Investor and Analyst Day on Tue Oct 27. Mean target $473.91 (22 analysts, Strong Buy) implies 47% upside; the lowest target ($375) is 16% above the price. - CRDO:US Credo Technology - watch (medium) - Credo sells active electrical cables, optical DSPs and PCIe/Ethernet retimers that connect GPUs and switches inside AI data centres. Fiscal Q1 2027 (to Aug 1) revenue was $479M, up 115% year on year, gross margin 64.5%, net income $129M; consensus has FY27 revenue +87% to about $2.5B. Wednesday Oct 14 it fell 9.62% to $179.23, the worst of the watchlist and a fourth straight decline, after trading as low as $179.00; no company news found. TSMC (Oct 15) beat on Q3 (revenue $46.72B vs a $44.6-45.8B guide, HPC 68% of revenue, +22% q/q) and guided Q4 to $52.3-54.3B vs about $48.8B expected; 2026 capex stays $60-64B as far as reported (Q3 spend $13.84B, $40.64B year to date). Mean target $279.09 (20 analysts, Strong Buy) implies 56% upside; the price is now 3% below the lowest target ($185). - SKHY:US SK hynix ADR - buy (high) - SK hynix is the leading HBM supplier to Nvidia and the number-two DRAM maker; the Nasdaq ADR listed in July. The ADR fell 6.06% Wednesday Oct 14 to $147.55, a fourth straight loss and 24.4% below the Oct 2 close of $195.13. Seoul then fell harder on Thursday Oct 15: SK hynix closed at 1,262,000 won (-11.06%), with the KOSPI hitting a circuit breaker at 12:38 KST and Samsung down about 10%, as the US CPI-led tech selloff landed on top of the CXMT DRAM worry. That Seoul close has not yet been priced into the ADR, which trades from 00:30 AEDT Fri. TSMC (Oct 15) beat on Q3 (revenue $46.72B vs a $44.6-45.8B guide, HPC 68% of revenue, +22% q/q) and guided Q4 to $52.3-54.3B vs about $48.8B expected; 2026 capex stays $60-64B as far as reported (Q3 spend $13.84B, $40.64B year to date), which is direct evidence that AI accelerator volumes (and so HBM demand) are still rising. Consensus target $252.21 (15 analysts, Strong Buy), 71% upside. Status and conviction unchanged: the falls are market-wide and about China competition and rates; no change to HBM orders or guidance has been reported. - BE:US Bloom Energy - watch (medium) - Bloom Energy makes solid-oxide fuel cells for onsite data-centre power; Q2 revenue was a record $1.07B and FY26 guidance is $3.9-4.2B, anchored by Oracle (up to 2.8 GW) and Brookfield ($25B). Wednesday Oct 14 it fell 9.15% to $239.34, from an intraday high of $258.52, as rising yields after hot CPI hit high-multiple power names; no company news found. Bloom confirmed on Oct 12 that Q3 results come Oct 22 after the US close, earlier than the Oct 27 estimate. Consensus target $284.74 (29 analysts, Buy) is now 19% above the price; UBS $350, Bernstein Hold $282. - GEV:US GE Vernova - accumulate (high) - GE Vernova builds gas turbines, grid equipment and wind for the power build-out; Q2 revenue was $11.1B (+22% y/y) with gas capacity largely contracted through 2030. Wednesday Oct 14 it fell 6.20% to $941.78, back below $1,000, after an intraday low of $922.24; no company news found - the move came with the CPI-driven selloff in AI-power names (Vertiv -6.1%, Bloom -9.2%). JPMorgan cut its target to $1,150 from $1,330 on Oct 9, keeping Overweight. Consensus target $1,225 (37 analysts, Buy), 30% upside. - VRT:US Vertiv - accumulate (medium) - Vertiv sells power, thermal and liquid-cooling gear for data centres; Q2 sales were $3.27B (+24%) and it guided Q3 to $3.65-3.85B and EPS $1.77-1.83, lifting FY26 EPS to $6.65-6.75. Wednesday Oct 14 it fell 6.09% to $222.83, a fifth straight decline, in the CPI-driven AI-infrastructure selloff; no company news found. TSMC (Oct 15) beat on Q3 (revenue $46.72B vs a $44.6-45.8B guide, HPC 68% of revenue, +22% q/q) and guided Q4 to $52.3-54.3B vs about $48.8B expected; 2026 capex stays $60-64B as far as reported (Q3 spend $13.84B, $40.64B year to date), which points to more AI racks to power and cool in Q4. Consensus target $337.43 (30 analysts, Strong Buy), 51% upside. Q3 date still not announced as of this run. - HOOD:US Robinhood - accumulate (medium) - Robinhood is a retail brokerage adding prediction markets, perpetual futures, earnings contracts and Robinhood Agents (announced Sep 29); Q2 revenue was $1.31B (+32%), net income $561M. August data (released Sep 10): 28.6M funded customers, $384B platform assets (+8% m/m), $4.0B net deposits, equity volume $335B (+68% y/y). Wednesday Oct 14 it fell 8.54% to $101.08, ending a three-day gain, on a day high-multiple growth names sold off after hot CPI; no company news found. September operating data had not been released at this run. Consensus target $134.68 (30 analysts, Buy), 33% upside; Morgan Stanley $160 (Oct 9). - MELI:US MercadoLibre - accumulate (medium) - MercadoLibre runs Latin America's largest marketplace, logistics network and the Mercado Pago fintech; Q2 net revenue was $10.2B (+50% y/y), GMV $21.9B (+44%), TPV $101B (+56%), with operating income down 17% to $683M. The stock is riding Brazil's election: Flavio Bolsonaro leads Lula 52-48 in valid votes in Datafolha (Oct 8) and 52.8-47.2 in AtlasIntel/Bloomberg (Oct 9). Wednesday Oct 14 it fell 1.97% to $1,839.11, a third straight decline but a small one next to the AI names; no company news found. Consensus target $2,276 (26 analysts, Buy), 24% upside. - NET:US Cloudflare - accumulate (high) - Cloudflare runs a global edge network selling security, CDN, zero-trust and the Workers developer platform; trailing revenue is $2.51B, up 33.5%. Wednesday Oct 14 it fell 6.72% to $324.33, a third down day that leaves it about 7% below last Friday's 52-week-high close; no company news found - software sold off with chips after hot CPI. The price is back below the $341 mean target (34 analysts, Buy), 5% upside; BTIG $413 and Oppenheimer $430 imply 27-33%. Q3 results listed for Oct 29 (estimated, not yet confirmed by the company). - SE:US Sea Limited - accumulate (medium) - Sea runs Shopee (e-commerce), SeaMoney (digital finance) and Garena (games) across Southeast Asia and Brazil; trailing revenue is $27.7B, up 43.1%. Wednesday Oct 14 it slipped 0.65% to $95.31, barely touched by the AI selloff, with no company news found. Forward PE is 22 against 40%+ revenue growth, market cap $58B. Mean target $154.93 (29 analysts, Strong Buy) implies 63% upside; DBS Hold $105 and Arete Buy $152 bracket the range. - 1211:HK BYD - watch (medium) - BYD is the largest NEV maker with in-house batteries and chips and a growing export push; September sales were 463,561 (+17%). Hong Kong closed Wednesday Oct 14 at HK$72.85 (-0.55%) and was HK$72.65 (-0.27%, about US$9.26 at 7.848 HKD/USD) at 14:47 HKT Thursday, intraday with the close at 16:00 HKT (19:00 AEDT); Thursday's low was HK$71.80, 0.6% above the HK$71.40 52-week low. The Da Han flagship EV launched Oct 13 at 235,900-275,900 yuan, up to 24,000 yuan below its pre-sale prices. JPMorgan Neutral HK$88 implies 21% upside. Weekly China registrations for Oct 5-11 were not found at this run. - 6861:JP Keyence - buy (high) - Keyence sells machine-vision, sensors and measurement gear direct to factories with industry-leading margins and no debt; trailing revenue is JPY 1.25T, up 16.9%. Thursday Oct 15 it closed at JPY 78,970 (-1.69%, about US$499 at 158.31 JPY/USD), after an intraday low of JPY 77,380, as Asian tech sold off after hot US CPI; no company news found. Mean target of JPY 97,867 (15 analysts, Strong Buy) implies 24% upside. Fiscal Q2 results listed for Oct 29 (StockAnalysis; treat as TBC). - ASML:US ASML Holding - buy (high) - ASML is the only supplier of EUV lithography tools for leading-edge chips. Q3 2026 (Oct 14): net sales EUR 11.66B (record; a touch under the EUR 11.72B consensus), gross margin 57.5% (guide 55-57%), net income EUR 4.96B, EPS EUR 12.95; Q4 guide EUR 14.2-15.2B at about 57%, lifting 2026 to EUR 44-45B. CEO Fouquet: planned supply for 2027 and 2028 'will not fully meet the demand of our customers'. Market reaction split: Amsterdam recovered from an early drop to close Wednesday at EUR 1,528.20 (+1.23%), but the ADR fell 3.94% to $1,650.00 in the US CPI selloff (semis ETF SMH about -4%). TSMC, ASML's largest EUV customer, then beat on Q3 and guided Q4 revenue to $52.3-54.3B vs about $48.8B expected, keeping 2026 capex at $60-64B as far as reported. Mean target $2,099 (42 analysts, Strong Buy), 27% upside. Status kept at buy/high: the results and TSMC's guide both support demand; the ADR drop tracked the market, not the print. - TER:US Teradyne - watch (medium) - Teradyne makes automated test equipment for AI accelerators, HBM memory and mobile chips, plus a robotics arm (Universal Robots, MiR); trailing revenue is $4.46B, up 57.9%. Wednesday Oct 14 it fell 5.48% to $359.44; it is 20.0% below the Oct 2 close of $449.04 and has fallen seven of the last eight sessions. No company news found. TSMC (Oct 15) beat on Q3 (revenue $46.72B vs a $44.6-45.8B guide, HPC 68% of revenue, +22% q/q) and guided Q4 to $52.3-54.3B vs about $48.8B expected; 2026 capex stays $60-64B as far as reported (Q3 spend $13.84B, $40.64B year to date); 2nm rose to 8% of TSMC wafer revenue from 3% in Q2, and each new node adds test time. Mean target $446.47 (17 analysts, Buy) implies 24% upside; Baird's $420 Neutral is 17% above the price. - TSLA:US Tesla - watch (medium) - Tesla sells EVs and storage and is pivoting the story to robotaxi (Cybercab) and Optimus; trailing revenue is $103.6B, up 11.8%. Wednesday Oct 14 it fell 2.15% to $367.16, a third straight decline, with no company news found. Tesla's 8-K confirms Q3 results after the close on Wed Oct 21 with a Q&A webcast at 5:30pm ET (08:30 AEDT Thu Oct 22). The Cybercab is on show at the Paris Motor Show (to Oct 18). Mean target $396.57 (44 analysts) implies 8% upside. The Roadster demo date (Oct 15 per the Sep 28 reschedule) could not be reconfirmed; Electrek counts at least eight delays since 2017. ## Bellwether changes - h100_rental: Silicon Data SDH100RT $2.85/hr as of Oct 13, unchanged from Oct 12 and level with the Oct 9 high; page now shows +7.1% 7d. H200 $3.38 (+3.0% 7d), up 3c; A100 $1.52 (+3.8%), up 1c; MI300X $2.64 (0.0%). CME H100/B200 futures: launch Nov 9 or later./bullish -> Silicon Data SDH100RT $2.85/hr as of Oct 14, unchanged and level with the Oct 9 high; +7.1% 7d. H200 $3.39 (+2.7% 7d), up 1c; A100 $1.52 (+3.8%); MI300X $2.64 (0.0%). CME H100/B200 futures: launch Nov 9 or later./bullish - b200_rental: Silicon Data B200 $5.95 as of Oct 13 (+4.0% 7d), up 1c from $5.94; B300 $6.65 (+6.3% 7d), unchanged. B200/H100 ratio 2.09x (5.95/2.85), up from 2.08x. Both above the $4.50 and 2x triggers./bullish -> Silicon Data B200 $5.95 as of Oct 14 (+3.8% 7d), unchanged; B300 $6.65 (+7.0% 7d), unchanged. B200/H100 ratio 2.09x (5.95/2.85). Both above the $4.50 and 2x triggers./bullish - hopper_residual: A100 index $1.52 Oct 13 (+3.8% 7d; trigger $1.50), up 1c and two cents above the floor. H200 $3.38, up 3c. Silicon Data residual study (Jan 30 data): used H100 ~65-75% of new at 2 yrs, 45-55% at 3 yrs; low end $12-16K. No new impairments Oct 13-14./bullish -> A100 index $1.52 Oct 14 (+3.8% 7d; trigger $1.50), unchanged, two cents above the floor. H200 $3.39, up 1c. Silicon Data residual study (Jan 30 data): used H100 ~65-75% of new at 2 yrs, 45-55% at 3 yrs; low end $12-16K. No new impairments Oct 14-15./bullish - dc_cost_per_gw: 10-yr Treasury par yield 5.21% on Oct 13 (Treasury), down 3bp from 5.24% on Oct 9 and 10bp below the Oct 5 high of 5.31%. No new campus $/GW prints (last: Vera Rubin ~$47B/GW, gas campus ~$60B/GW, Project Jupiter ~$67B/GW)./neutral -> 10-yr Treasury par yield 5.19% on Oct 14 (Treasury), down 2bp despite hot CPI; 2-yr up 3bp to 4.82%. September CPI 3.7% y/y vs 3.6% expected; Oct 27-28 hike odds 33.2% from 22.1%. No new campus $/GW prints (last: Vera Rubin ~$47B/GW, gas ~$60B/GW, Jupiter ~$67B/GW)./neutral - memory_prices: TrendForce spot Oct 14: DDR5 16Gb $60.10 (+0.33%), new high and first print above $60; DDR4 16Gb $83.61 (-0.30%); DDR4 8Gb $45.97 (-0.19%). SK hynix -1.7%, Samsung flat at Wed close after -10.1%/-7.4% Tue; MU -3.6% Tue. Public contract table still 2H Aug./bullish -> TrendForce spot Oct 15: DDR5 16Gb $60.43 (+0.55%), another high; DDR4 16Gb $83.66 (+0.06%), steadied; DDR4 8Gb $45.97 (flat). SK hynix -11.1%, Samsung about -10% at Thursday's close (KOSPI -7.57%); MU -4.10% Wed. Public contract table still 2H Aug./bullish - power_bottleneck: FERC (Oct 9 order) rejected PJM's interim large-load service, which let data centres connect without new capacity if curtailable, and its bring-your-own-capacity rules; approved the large-load definition and registry. ERCOT 474 GW large-load queue; TCEQ freeze since Sep 21, report Oct 19; TWDB report Oct 14./bullish -> FERC (Oct 9 order) rejected PJM's interim large-load service, which let data centres connect without new capacity if curtailable, and its bring-your-own-capacity rules; approved the large-load definition and registry. ERCOT 474 GW large-load queue; TCEQ freeze since Sep 21, report Oct 19; TWDB report due Oct 14 not yet found./bullish - capex_vs_backlog: ASML Q3 (Oct 14): sales EUR 11.66B, a hair under consensus; GM 57.5%; Q4 guide EUR 14.2-15.2B; 2026 raised to EUR 44-45B. Says planned 2027-28 supply will not meet demand; some customers asking for 2029-30 slots. OpenAI run-rate 'approaching $50B' (FT) vs ~$70B assumed./neutral -> TSMC Q3 (Oct 15): revenue $46.72B vs $44.6-45.8B guide; GM 66.4%; net income +68.7% y/y; HPC 68% of revenue, +22% q/q. Q4 guide $52.3-54.3B, GM 65-67%. Capex $13.84B in Q3, $40.64B YTD against the $60-64B 2026 range set in July./neutral - neocloud_credit: CRWV ~$80, down ~2% in Monday trading; Nebius down 3-5% (24/7 Wall St.). No new bond quotes: CoreWeave-leased paper 7.00-9.875% vs 5.70-7.875% hyperscaler-leased (CCIR); Oracle Jupiter loans 89-91c in Sept; Oracle 5-yr CDS ~151bp early Oct; banks exploring risk transfer on $38B Oracle-leased debt./neutral -> CoreWeave 9.625% 2032 notes below 80c, ~78c per Bloomberg, yield ~14.8% (Oct 14); CDS implies >50% five-year default odds. CRWV -15.5%, Nebius -10.1%, Oracle -8.8% Wednesday. CEO cites $104.2B backlog. Oracle Jupiter loans 89-91c in Sept./bearish - nvidia_dc: NVDA +0.97% Tuesday while MU fell 3.6% and the Nasdaq slipped. Agreed a minority stake in Doctolib. Reflection AI talks still preliminary. DC rev $89.0B (+117%), GM 75.0%, Q3 guide $108B, $150B buyback unchanged. No China or export news./bullish -> NVDA -3.16% Wednesday (AMD -5.73%, MU -4.10%, TSM ADR -3.40%, AVGO -3.10%) on hot CPI and the CoreWeave bond slide. Huang: AI-infrastructure demand to exceed supply for years. TSMC HPC +22% q/q. DC rev $89.0B (+117%), GM 75.0%, Q3 guide $108B./bullish ## Calendar changes - 2026-10-15-tsm-q3-results: 2026-10-15 14:00 Taipei (17:00 AEDT Thu; 02:00 ET); quiet period Oct 5-14 -> 2026-10-15 Released 14:00 Taipei (17:00 AEDT Thu), after the Taipei close - 2026-10-14-anthropic-investor-day: 2026-10-14 TBC (San Francisco) -> 2026-10-14 Held Wed Oct 14, San Francisco - added 2026-10-22 BE Bloom Energy Q3 2026 results and call - added 2026-10-26 CLS Celestica Q3 2026 results, call and Investor and Analyst Day - 2026-10-14-us-cpi: 2026-10-14 08:30 ET (23:30 AEDT Wed) -> 2026-10-14 Released 08:30 ET (23:30 AEDT Wed) - 2026-10-14-bac-q3: 2026-10-14 Release about 06:45 ET (21:45 AEDT Wed); call 08:30 ET (23:30 AEDT Wed) -> 2026-10-14 Released before US open Wed - 2026-10-14-ms-q3: 2026-10-14 Release about 07:30 ET (22:30 AEDT Wed); call 09:30 ET (00:30 AEDT Thu) -> 2026-10-14 Released before US open Wed - 2026-10-14-fed-beige-book: 2026-10-14 14:00 ET (05:00 AEDT Thu) -> 2026-10-14 Released 14:00 ET (05:00 AEDT Thu) - 2026-10-15-au-labour-force: 2026-10-15 11:30 AEDT Thu (20:30 ET Wed) -> 2026-10-15 Released 11:30 AEDT Thu - 2026-10-28-meta-msft-q3: 2026-10-28 TBC (after US close per third-party calendars; ~07:30 AEDT Thu Oct 29) -> 2026-10-28 After US close Wed Oct 28 (Thu Oct 29 morning AEDT); call time not yet posted - added 2026-10-29 MACRO US Q3 GDP, advance estimate (BEA) - added 2026-10-29 MACRO US September personal income and outlays, PCE inflation (BEA) - removed 2026-10-27-be-q3 ## New news (18) - 2026-10-15 [positive] TSM: TSMC Q3 beats: revenue $46.72B (+41.2% y/y) vs $44.6-45.8B guide, gross margin 66.4%, EPS NT$29.43 (+68.7%) - Net income NT$763.06B. Gross margin 66.4% sat inside the 65-67% guide, down from 67.7% in Q2 on early 2nm costs; operating margin 58.7%. 2nm was 8% of wafer revenue (3% in Q2), 3nm 33%. HPC rose to 68% of revenue from 66% in Q2 and 57% a year ago. Q3 capex NT$443.2B. EPS is US$4.60 per ADR. <https://investor.tsmc.com/english/encrypt/files/encrypt_file/reports/2026-10/526b65af7305df2dde6b9ece6812b1fdf1e49f9b/3Q26%20EarningsRelease.pdf> - 2026-10-15 [positive] TSM: TSMC guides Q4 revenue to $52.3-54.3B, about 14% above Q3 at the midpoint, with 65-67% gross margin - Operating margin guided to 56.5-58.5% at 31.8 NT$ per US$. CFO Wendell Huang cited continued strong leading-edge demand and the steep 2nm ramp. Good read for Nvidia and custom-chip suppliers like Marvell; it says nothing directly about memory. <https://investor.tsmc.com/english/quarterly-results/2026/q3> - 2026-10-15 [negative] MACRO: Taiwan shares close down 3.41% at 46,969.87 before TSMC's results - The Taiex fell 1,655.96 points on turnover of NT$1.32 trillion. TSMC closed down 2.0% in Taipei; results came out after the close. <https://focustaiwan.tw/business/202610150007> - 2026-10-14 [negative] NVDA: Nvidia falls 3.2% on CPI, IDC China share data and Microsoft's Maia 300 plan - IDC said Nvidia's share of China's AI data-centre chip market fell to 34% in H1 2026 as Huawei grew. Microsoft plans to deploy over a million Maia 300 chips from 2027. Huang said he would halt supply to a customer building unsafe AI, calling it hypothetical. <https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/why-is-nvidia-stock-sliding-today-93CH-4949876> - 2026-10-14 [neutral] NFLX: Netflix confirms about 6% job cuts, nearly 1,000 roles, its largest since 2022 - Co-CEO memo; product, technology, legal and HR most affected. Netflix had about 16,000 full-time staff at end-2025. Q3 results due Oct 20 US (07:00 AEDT Wed Oct 21). <https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/usa-news/netflix-is-laying-off-6-of-its-workforce-in-biggest-round-of-job-cuts-at-streaming-giant-in-years/> - 2026-10-15 [negative] BABA: Hong Kong opens lower on US rate-hike bets; Alibaba and Tencent down nearly 2% - Hang Seng -0.8% at the open and the tech index -2.21%; Hua Hong -5.6%, SMIC -3.3%. The Hang Seng closed down 1.4%. <https://www.thestandard.com.hk/finance/article/345526/Hong-Kong-shares-open-lower-as-US-inflation-boosts-rate-hike-fears> - 2026-10-14 [positive] ANTHROPIC: Anthropic tells investors Q3 revenue was $16.8B, adjusted profitable and cash-flow positive - At its San Francisco investor day (FT, via Investing.com): Q3 revenue $16.8B, up nearly 50% from about $11.5B in Q2; second straight quarter of adjusted profit; $1.70 of revenue per $1 of compute. Growth slowed from earlier in 2026 and annualised revenue is expected to fall short of $100B. Unaudited, from people familiar. <https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/anthropic-tells-investors-q3-revenue-030140226.html> - 2026-10-15 [negative] ANTHROPIC: Q3 growth slowdown tempers the $2T pitch; SemiAnalysis sees about $74B run rate at year-end - Q3 growth of about 50% compares with roughly 140% in Q2. Some investors had talked of $100B+ annualised revenue by year-end; SemiAnalysis now projects about $74B (from $65B in July). Pressures cited: Meta and Microsoft using own models, cut distillation revenue (5-7% of sales), price war with OpenAI and Chinese labs. Commitments of at least $518B over a decade; Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley lead the IPO. <https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/anthropic-2-trillion-ipo-pitch-045117254.html> - 2026-10-14 [negative] MACRO: Hot US CPI (3.7% vs 3.6%) drives Nasdaq down 1.9%; AI stocks lead losses - September CPI 3.7% y/y vs 3.6% expected (August 3.4%); core 2.6% vs 2.5%. S&P 500 -1.1%, Nasdaq -1.9%, Dow -0.1%; 10-year yield near 5.2-5.3%. Odds of an October Fed hike rose. Watchlist AI-infrastructure names fell 6-10% (Credo, Celestica, Bloom, Astera, GE Vernova, Vertiv). Bank of America fell about 5% after a $1.2B regulatory penalty. <https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/live/stock-market-today-hot-inflation-report-drops-tech-drives-sp-500-nasdaq-down-152206632.html> - 2026-10-15 [positive] TSM: TSMC guides Q4 revenue $52.3-54.3B vs about $48.8B expected - Q4 gross margin guide 65-67% (expected 66.1%), operating margin 56.5-58.8% (expected 58.0%). Midpoint implies about 14% sequential growth. Read-through for ASML, Teradyne and the AI-connectivity names: accelerator volumes still rising into year-end. <https://www.newsquawk.com/headlines/tsmc-2330-tt-guides-q4-revenue-between-usd-523-543bln-exp-488bln> - 2026-10-15 [negative] SKHY: KOSPI hits circuit breaker; SK hynix falls 11% and Samsung 10% in Seoul - Kospi was down 8.13% at 13:17 KST after a sell-sidecar at 09:07 and a 20-minute circuit breaker at 12:38; Kosdaq also halted. SK hynix closed at 1,262,000 won (-11.06%), market cap below 1,000 trillion won. Follows Wall Street's CPI-driven tech selloff and the week's CXMT DRAM worries; KOSPI on a seven-session losing streak. <https://www.koreaherald.com/article/10903746> - 2026-10-12 [neutral] BE: Bloom Energy sets Q3 results for Oct 22, earlier than the Oct 27 estimate - Results after the US close Thu Oct 22; call 2pm PT / 5pm ET (08:00 AEDT Fri Oct 23). Shares fell 9.15% Oct 14 into the print in the CPI selloff. <https://www.bloomenergy.com/news/bloom-energy-to-announce-third-quarter-2026-financial-results-on-october-22-2026/> - 2026-10-14 [negative] MACRO: CoreWeave falls 15.5% as its 2032 bonds drop below 80c and yield near 15% - The 9.625% notes sold at par in June fell below 78c per Bloomberg, a yield of about 14.8%; CDS imply a better-than-50% five-year default probability. Nebius fell 10.1% and Oracle 8.8%. <https://en.sedaily.com/international/2026/10/15/hot-us-inflation-squeezes-ai-debt-and-rich-world-budgets> - 2026-10-14 [negative] MACRO: US September CPI 3.7% y/y and core 2.6%, both above forecasts; gasoline up 34% on the year - Headline +0.6% m/m (3.6% y/y expected, 3.4% in August); core +0.3% m/m vs 0.2% expected. Energy +5.2% m/m, gasoline +9.1% m/m, over half the monthly rise; shelter +0.4%. Last CPI before the Oct 27-28 FOMC. <https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm> - 2026-10-14 [neutral] MACRO: Bank of America EPS $0.91 after $1.2B money-laundering fine; Morgan Stanley EPS $3.03 on 41% equities growth - BofA's non-deductible fine cost about 17 cents a share (about $1.08 before it); revenue $29.96B. Morgan Stanley revenue $20.3B, ROTCE 22.6%, record wealth revenue $9.1B. Shares fell 4.8% and about 3%. <https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000895421/000089542126000288/a3q26msearningsrelease.htm> - 2026-10-15 [negative] MACRO: KOSPI closes down 7.57% after a circuit breaker; Nikkei -4.9%, Taiex -3.41% in an Asia chip rout - KOSPI 5,554.22, KOSDAQ 760.82; SK hynix and Samsung fell about 10-11%. Nikkei 64,425.95 (SoftBank -9.4%, Kioxia -11.2%); Taiex 46,969.87. Hot US CPI, AI-debt worries (CoreWeave bonds, a Gartner impairment warning) and an IMF warning that an AI correction would hit Asia hardest. <https://en.sedaily.com/finance/2026/10/15/kospi-plunges-757-percent-to-close-at-555422> - 2026-10-15 [neutral] RBA: Australia sheds 39,300 jobs in September; unemployment 4.7% vs 4.6% expected - Economists expected a 19,600 gain; August revised to +29,300 and 4.7%. Participation 66.8%. AUD -0.3%. ANZ still expects a November hike; Oxford Economics says the RBA has room to wait for Q3 CPI on Oct 28. <https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/australia-loses-39-300-jobs-013035431.html> - 2026-10-14 [neutral] FED: Beige Book: oil prices in every district, price growth picking up in four; firms slow hiring after AI investment - Two districts reported moderate growth, three modest, four slight, three flat; manufacturing led. Three districts called price growth robust; firms expect further increases as contracts reset. Five districts said firms cut staff by attrition or delayed hiring after AI productivity gains. <https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/BeigeBook_20261014.pdf> ## Notes US Wednesday (hot CPI) plus Thursday Asia and TSMC Q3. US prices are Wednesday Oct 14 closes (stockanalysis.com; AXOS via the AX page; LDI 0.4958). Take change: MU hold -> watch (four straight losses, about 11% since Oct 9, CXMT competition, Korean peers -10-11% Thursday, Taiwan strike vote). FIGR flagged as close to watch but kept at hold. Watchlist: no status changes; Bloom Q3 moved to Oct 22 (old Oct 27 estimate removed), Celestica Oct 26 plus investor day Oct 27. Bellwether signal change: neocloud_credit neutral -> bearish. CoreWeave 2032 notes below 78c (yield up to 14.8%) per Seoul Economic Daily citing Bloomberg, CDS-implied five-year default odds above 50%; CoreWeave -15.46% confirmed on stockanalysis; Nebius -10.1%, Oracle -8.8%. The bond quote is secondhand (Bloomberg page not opened); revisit if it recovers above 85c. Korea: KOSPI close -7.57% to 5,554.22 (Seoul Economic Daily); intraday -7.9%/-8% figures dropped. SK hynix close -11.06% (1,262,000 won); Samsung about -10% (Korea Herald). Chip-index streak: sixth straight loss (Tuesday's was the fifth); one agent said seventh. 10-year: Treasury par 5.19% Oct 14; it spiked above 5.3% intraday after CPI. TSMC: figures from the IR page and 3Q26 release; call commentary (2026 capex, CoWoS, 2027) not yet indexed, and TokenPost's report of a raised 2026 growth outlook (about 44%) was left out as unconfirmed. Q4 consensus $48.8B from Newsquawk. Anthropic: Q3 revenue $16.8B, adjusted profit, IPO marketing from week of Nov 9 at $1.8-2T, all from FT/Bloomberg reporting via Yahoo; unaudited, S-1 not public. Netflix confirmed about 6% cuts (nearly 1,000 roles). Fed odds: Oct 28 hike about 32-37% (FedWatch via several outlets, briefly about 49%); Xinhua's 91% for a hike by December not cross-checked. Skipped: Enphase target cuts (Benzinga/MarketBeat), TokenPost TSMC outlook, Hock Tan 'gambling' remark, BOJ Oct 30, Apple Nov 2 and Amazon Oct 29 dates (aggregators only). Existing-home-sales Oct 13 calendar date looks wrong; not yet checked.
Nothing here is financial advice. Holdings and opinions are my own; the "agent" sections are written by an automated research skill and may be wrong. Built 2026-10-15 13:51 UTC.