# Research run 2026-10-16T07:50 UTC ## What changed - Hot US PPI (+1.3% m/m) but bonds rallied, 10-year down 10bp to 5.09%; loanDepot +14%, Figure +10%, Rocket +5%. - TSMC lifted 2026 growth to about 44% and sees no AI slowdown, yet its ADR fell 1.8% and Taipei 0.8%. - Chip index fell a seventh straight day: Nvidia -1.8%, Marvell -1.7%; Micron closed +1.9% after a 6% intraday drop. - CoreWeave credit swaps hit a record before Huang backed it; shares closed +5.9%, the neocloud bellwether stays bearish. - Asia steadied Friday: KOSPI +2.05%, Samsung +2.6%, SK hynix +0.8% after Thursday's 10-11% falls. - Next: China Q3 GDP Mon 13:00 AEDT; Netflix Wed 07:00 AEDT; Meta Thu 07:30 AEDT; Fed decision Thu Oct 29 05:00 AEDT. ## Market summary US September PPI ran far hotter than expected: +1.3% m/m (0.5-0.6% expected), the biggest jump since March 2022, and 6.3% y/y, with core +0.7% (0.3% expected); retail sales rose 0.8% (0.3-0.4% expected) but the control group only 0.1% (0.3% expected), jobless claims were 199K, Philly Fed 20.9 (32 expected) and Empire State 25.5 (10.3 expected). Bonds rallied anyway, the 10-year falling about 10bp to 5.09%, and money rotated out of chips into old-economy names: Thursday's close was S&P 500 +0.33% to 7,744.06, Nasdaq +0.08% to 26,713.03 and Dow +1.08% to 52,177.69, while the chip index fell 0.88% for a seventh straight loss, TSMC's ADR fell 1.8% despite its record quarter, Nvidia -1.8%, Dell -6.8%, HPE -7.1%, and CoreWeave closed +5.9% after Jensen Huang backed it. CME FedWatch put an Oct 28 hike at about 30-34% after the data and at least one hike by December near 94%; Hammack said the Fed may need to move more if inflation expectations slip, and Warsh in Bangkok declined to signal October, saying the Fed will 'make judgements at the October and December meeting'. Friday in Asia chips steadied rather than rebounded: KOSPI +2.05% as foreigners turned net buyers after eight selling sessions (Samsung +2.6%, SK hynix +0.8% after -10-11% Thursday), Taiex +0.3% to 47,111.26 (TSMC -0.8%), Nikkei up about 1.4-1.9%, Shanghai about +1% to 3,742.66, Hang Seng +1.2% to 24,353.69 (afternoon) and ASX 200 +1.1% to 8,812.9, while Jakarta fell more than 10% on an MSCI downgrade warning. US futures were little changed; Brent was about $105.5 and WTI $97.4 (both about -0.5%) after WTI rose 2.8% Thursday on an 8.5M-barrel US crude draw and Trump floated easing shadow-fleet tanker sanctions; spot gold about $4,180 (+0.2%), bitcoin about $82,000. Next: import prices 23:30 AEDT tonight and industrial production 00:15 AEDT Sat; US open 00:30 AEDT Sat; options expiry Fri US (close 07:00 AEDT Sat); FOMC blackout from Sat Oct 17; China Q3 GDP, retail sales and industrial output 13:00 AEDT Mon Oct 19; Netflix 07:01 AEDT Wed Oct 21; SAP 07:05, Meta and TI 07:30, IBM and Lam 08:00, Tesla 08:30 AEDT Thu Oct 22; AU CPI 11:30 AEDT Wed Oct 28; Fed decision 05:00 AEDT Thu Oct 29; Alphabet 07:30, ServiceNow 08:00 and Microsoft 08:30 AEDT Thu Oct 29; US Q3 GDP and September PCE 23:30 AEDT Thu Oct 29; BoJ decision Fri Oct 30. ## Holdings - AMZN: hold - Up 0.3% Thursday as the Dow led (+1.1%) and the Nasdaq edged up 0.1% after hot PPI. No follow-up found on the WSJ-reported Decart talks (about $7 billion, unsigned). Q3 about Fri Oct 30 07:00 AEDT. Hold. - AXOS: hold - Up 1.1% Thursday as bonds rallied despite hot PPI (+1.3% m/m): the 10-year fell about 10 basis points to 5.09% and October hike odds eased to about 27%. Bank results were mixed (BNY +3.2%, Schwab -2.7%). Fiscal Q1 Fri Oct 30 08:00 AEDT. Hold. - BABA: hold - US ADR flat (-0.04%) Thursday. Tim Cook said in Shanghai that Apple Intelligence with Alibaba's Qwen is approved in China, with a beta due later in October, and Alibaba rose more than 2% at Friday's Hong Kong open. China Q3 GDP Mon Oct 19 13:00 AEDT. Hold. - ENPH: watch - Up 5.0% Thursday, recovering about half of Wednesday's 8.4% loss, as the 10-year yield fell about 10 basis points to 5.09%. No company news found. Q3 call Wed Oct 28 07:30 AEDT. Watch. - FIGR: hold - Up 10.5% Thursday, more than reversing Wednesday's 8.1% drop, as bond yields fell and Mortgage News Daily's 30-year dropped 0.12 points to 7.33%. No company news found. Still near its 52-week low, so the watch flag stays live; Q3 date not yet announced. Hold. - GOOGL: add - Up 0.5% Thursday. TSMC raised its 2026 growth outlook to about 44% and said AI demand still exceeds supply, with AI accelerator growth likely above its mid-to-high-50s% long-run rate, which supports the TPU and Cloud build-out. Q3 results 07:30 AEDT Thu Oct 29. Add stays. - LDI: trim - Up 14.4% Thursday after falling 10.7% Wednesday, as Mortgage News Daily's 30-year fell 0.12 points to 7.33%, now more than 0.25 points below last week's highs. One day does not fix the problem: the stock remains under the NYSE minimum-price standard and MND warns the rate relief may not last. Trim. - META: hold - Down 0.1% Thursday. Meta released Muse Spark Open, an 816-billion-parameter open-weight model built with Apple to run locally on Mac Studio, three days after the closed Muse Wonder. No New Mexico penalty ruling found. Q3 call Thu Oct 22 07:30 AEDT. Hold. - MRVL: hold - Down 1.7% Thursday as chip stocks lagged a broader rebound, after Wednesday's 8.7% fall. TSMC's call supports custom-chip demand: 2026 growth raised to about 44%, AI demand above supply, and CoWoS capacity to be expanded to meet orders. Hold. - MU: watch - Up 1.9% Thursday after an intraday fall of more than 6% to its lowest since Aug 11, ending a four-day losing run. HSBC and Daiwa said the CXMT threat is overstated for the next 2-3 years, but SK hynix still fell 1% and the stock is down about 10% since Oct 9. Taiwan union rally Mon Oct 19. Watch. - NFLX: hold - Up 2.9% Thursday, a second straight gain on down-to-flat tech days, with no new company news after Wednesday's confirmed 6% job cuts. Q3 results Wed Oct 21 07:00 AEDT. Hold into the print. - NVDA: hold - Fell 1.8% Thursday as chips lagged. Jensen Huang said CoreWeave needs no backstop and its cost of capital is falling, even as CoreWeave's credit swaps hit a record. TSMC said AI accelerator growth will probably beat its mid-to-high-50s% rate. GTC Berlin Oct 20-22. Hold. - OPENAI: hold - No close reported for the roughly $30 billion round at about $1.4 trillion pre-money, so the mark multiple stays 5.43. Nvidia is reportedly discussing backstopping $250 billion of OpenAI data-centre financing; neither side has confirmed. Hold. - RKT: watch - Up 5.1% Thursday, ending a five-day losing run, as Mortgage News Daily's 30-year fell 0.12 points to 7.33% and the 10-year yield dropped about 10 basis points. MND warns the rate relief is fragile because it rests on AI-selloff fears, not softer inflation. Q3 around Oct 29. Watch. - STRIPE: hold - No new round, tender or secondary mark found; the last company tender was February at $159 billion, so the mark multiple stays 2.27. No company news found for Oct 15-16. Hold. - TSM: add - TSMC raised 2026 growth to about 44% in US dollars, kept capex at $60-64 billion, and said AI demand still exceeds supply. The ADR still fell 1.8% Thursday and Taipei shares 0.8% Friday on a cautious 2027 tone and overseas-fab margin dilution of 3-4 points later in the decade. Add stays. ## Watchlist - ALAB:US Astera Labs - watch (medium) - Astera Labs sells PCIe, CXL and Ethernet connectivity silicon for AI racks; Q2 revenue was $392M (+105% y/y) and Q3 guidance is EPS $1.16-1.21 on consensus revenue of about $551M. Thursday Oct 15 it rose 0.57% to $301.98 after opening at $285.00 and touching $281.29, a 7% climb off the low, as the Dow rose 1.08% despite hot September PPI (+1.3% m/m vs +0.5% expected); no company news found. It is 21.0% below the Oct 7 close of $382.25. TSMC's Oct 15 call: CEO Wei said AI demand is 'extremely robust' with 'no sign of slowdown', the demand-supply gap is 'still quite big', and the mid-to-high-50s% AI accelerator growth rate for 2024-29 'probably will be higher'; 2026 capex held at $60-64B and 2026-28 capex will be 'significantly higher' than the prior three years. Consensus target $391.77 (26 analysts, Buy), 30% upside. - AVGO:US Broadcom - accumulate (medium) - Broadcom supplies custom AI accelerators (Google, Meta, OpenAI's Jalapeno) plus Ethernet networking and VMware software. The WSJ reported Oct 7 that it is lining up $50B+ of financing so OpenAI can buy its chips. Thursday Oct 15 it slipped 0.55% to $344.33 after a low of $334.61, recovering from a lower open; no Broadcom-specific news found. TSMC's Oct 15 call supports custom-silicon demand: Wei said accelerator growth for 2024-29 'probably will be higher' than the mid-to-high-50s% guide, demand shows 'no sign of slowdown', 2026-28 capex will be 'significantly higher' than the prior three years, and TSMC is in production at 5x-reticle CoWoS packaging with 9x and 14x in development. Consensus target $531.31 (50 analysts, Strong Buy), 54% upside. - CLS:US Celestica - watch (medium) - Celestica designs and builds 800G/1.6T networking switches, servers and storage for hyperscalers. Q2 2026 revenue was $4.70B (+62% y/y); it guided Q3 to $5.25-5.55B revenue and adjusted EPS $2.88-3.08, and raised 2026 to $20.5B revenue (+65%) and $11.30 adjusted EPS (+87%). Thursday Oct 15 it fell another 2.50% to $315.25 after a low of $296.12; no company news found. TSMC said Oct 15 that AI demand shows 'no sign of slowdown' and the demand-supply gap is 'still quite big', which supports rack build volumes into 2027. Q3 results are confirmed for Mon Oct 26 after close, with the call and an Investor and Analyst Day on Tue Oct 27. Mean target $473.91 (22 analysts, Strong Buy) implies 50% upside; the lowest target ($375) is 19% above the price. - CRDO:US Credo Technology - watch (medium) - Credo sells active electrical cables, optical DSPs and PCIe/Ethernet retimers that connect GPUs and switches inside AI data centres. Fiscal Q1 2027 (to Aug 1) revenue was $479M, up 115% year on year, gross margin 64.5%, net income $129M; consensus has FY27 revenue +87% to about $2.5B. Thursday Oct 15 it dipped 0.40% to $178.50, a fifth straight decline, but only after trading as low as $166.50 (-7.1%) and recovering 7%; no company news found. TSMC's Oct 15 call (demand 'extremely robust', accelerator growth 'probably will be higher' than the mid-to-high-50s% 2024-29 guide) supports more GPU-to-switch links. Mean target $279.09 (20 analysts, Strong Buy) implies 56% upside; the price is 3.5% below the lowest target ($185). - SKHY:US SK hynix ADR - buy (high) - SK hynix is the leading HBM supplier to Nvidia and the number-two DRAM maker; the Nasdaq ADR listed in July. Seoul's -11.06% Thursday (1,262,000 won) was priced in at the US open: the ADR opened at $137.88 (-6.6%) but recovered to close Thursday Oct 15 at $146.11 (-0.98%), 25.1% below the Oct 2 close of $195.13. Seoul then steadied Friday Oct 16: SK hynix closed at 1,272,000 won (+0.79%) after ranging 1,247,000-1,325,000. TSMC's Oct 15 call said AI demand shows 'no sign of slowdown' and the AI accelerator growth rate 'probably will be higher' than guided; it named HBM only as a supply variable, with no specific HBM comment. Consensus target $252.21 (15 analysts, Strong Buy), 73% upside. Status and conviction unchanged: the falls are market-wide and about China competition and rates; no change to HBM orders or guidance has been reported. - BE:US Bloom Energy - watch (medium) - Bloom Energy makes solid-oxide fuel cells for onsite data-centre power; Q2 revenue was a record $1.07B and FY26 guidance is $3.9-4.2B, anchored by Oracle (up to 2.8 GW) and Brookfield ($25B). Thursday Oct 15 it fell 1.27% to $236.30, but only after dropping to $215.12 (-10.1%) intraday and recovering 10%; no company news found. Bloom confirmed on Oct 12 that Q3 results come Oct 22 after the US close. Consensus target $284.74 (29 analysts, Buy) is 20% above the price; UBS $350, Bernstein Hold $282. - GEV:US GE Vernova - accumulate (high) - GE Vernova builds gas turbines, grid equipment and wind for the power build-out; Q2 revenue was $11.1B (+22% y/y) with gas capacity largely contracted through 2030. Thursday Oct 15 it fell 1.63% to $926.44, a second down day, after an intraday low of $871.16 (-7.5%); no company news found. AI-power names lagged Thursday as rising borrowing costs weighed on AI-infrastructure stocks, even as the Dow rose 1.08%. JPMorgan cut its target to $1,150 from $1,330 on Oct 9, keeping Overweight. Consensus target $1,225 (37 analysts, Buy), 32% upside. - VRT:US Vertiv - accumulate (medium) - Vertiv sells power, thermal and liquid-cooling gear for data centres; Q2 sales were $3.27B (+24%) and it guided Q3 to $3.65-3.85B and EPS $1.77-1.83, lifting FY26 EPS to $6.65-6.75. Thursday Oct 15 it fell 3.63% to $214.75, a sixth straight decline, as AI power plays fell on rising borrowing costs while the broader market rose; no company news found. TSMC's Oct 15 call (AI demand 'extremely robust', 'no sign of slowdown') points to more AI racks to power and cool. Consensus target $337.43 (30 analysts, Strong Buy), 57% upside. - HOOD:US Robinhood - accumulate (medium) - Robinhood is a retail brokerage adding prediction markets, perpetual futures, earnings contracts and Robinhood Agents (announced Sep 29); Q2 revenue was $1.31B (+32%), net income $561M. August data (released Sep 10): 28.6M funded customers, $384B platform assets (+8% m/m), $4.0B net deposits, equity volume $335B (+68% y/y). Thursday Oct 15 it rose 2.88% to $103.99, recovering from a low of $94.52, as the Russell 2000 gained 1.38%; no company news found. September operating data still not found as of 18:00 AEDT Oct 16. Consensus target $134.68 (30 analysts, Buy), 30% upside; Morgan Stanley $160 (Oct 9). - MELI:US MercadoLibre - accumulate (medium) - MercadoLibre runs Latin America's largest marketplace, logistics network and the Mercado Pago fintech; Q2 net revenue was $10.2B (+50% y/y), GMV $21.9B (+44%), TPV $101B (+56%), with operating income down 17% to $683M. The stock is riding Brazil's election: Flavio Bolsonaro leads Lula 52-48 in valid votes in Datafolha (Oct 8) and 52.8-47.2 in AtlasIntel/Bloomberg (Oct 9). Thursday Oct 15 it rose 0.97% to $1,856.98, ending a three-day slide; no company news found. Consensus target $2,276 (26 analysts, Buy), 23% upside. - NET:US Cloudflare - accumulate (high) - Cloudflare runs a global edge network selling security, CDN, zero-trust and the Workers developer platform; trailing revenue is $2.51B, up 33.5%. Thursday Oct 15 it fell 2.47% to $316.32, a fourth down day, after a low of $305.01; no company news found. Security software (CrowdStrike, Palo Alto, Okta, Zscaler) weakened the same day on a report that Perplexity will open-source its security software. The price is below the $341 mean target (34 analysts, Buy), 8% upside; BTIG $413 and Oppenheimer $430 imply 31-36%. Q3 results listed for Oct 29 (estimated, not yet confirmed by the company). - SE:US Sea Limited - accumulate (medium) - Sea runs Shopee (e-commerce), SeaMoney (digital finance) and Garena (games) across Southeast Asia and Brazil; trailing revenue is $27.7B, up 43.1%. Thursday Oct 15 it rose 2.30% to $97.50, its best day in the group, with no company news found. Forward PE is 22 against 40%+ revenue growth, market cap $58B. Mean target $154.93 (29 analysts, Strong Buy) implies 59% upside; DBS Hold $105 and Arete Buy $152 bracket the range. - 1211:HK BYD - watch (medium) - BYD is the largest NEV maker with in-house batteries and chips and a growing export push; September sales were 463,561 (+17%). Hong Kong closed Thursday Oct 15 at HK$72.95 (+0.14%) after a low of HK$71.80, and was HK$73.55 (+0.82%, about US$9.37 at 7.847 HKD/USD) at 14:45 HKT Friday, intraday with the close at 16:00 HKT (19:00 AEDT). The Da Han flagship EV launched Oct 13 at 235,900-275,900 yuan, up to 24,000 yuan below its pre-sale prices. JPMorgan Neutral HK$88 implies 20% upside. CnEVPost has not published weekly China registrations for Oct 5-11 or Oct 12-18. - 6861:JP Keyence - buy (high) - Keyence sells machine-vision, sensors and measurement gear direct to factories with industry-leading margins and no debt; trailing revenue is JPY 1.25T, up 16.9%. Friday Oct 16 it closed at JPY 80,760 (+2.27%, about US$511 at 158.09 JPY/USD), recovering all of Thursday's 1.69% fall after a high of JPY 81,710; no company news found. TSMC's Oct 15 call (N2 capacity to more than double in 2027, 3nm capacity additions in Taiwan, Arizona and Japan) points to continued fab and electronics-assembly spending, a core Keyence end market. Mean target of JPY 97,867 (15 analysts, Strong Buy) implies 21% upside. Fiscal Q2 results listed for Oct 29 (StockAnalysis; treat as TBC). - ASML:US ASML Holding - buy (high) - ASML is the only supplier of EUV lithography tools for leading-edge chips. Q3 2026 (Oct 14): net sales EUR 11.66B (record; a touch under the EUR 11.72B consensus), gross margin 57.5%, net income EUR 4.96B; Q4 guide EUR 14.2-15.2B at about 57%, lifting 2026 to EUR 44-45B, and the CEO said 2027-28 supply 'will not fully meet the demand of our customers'. Thursday Oct 15 Amsterdam caught down to Wednesday's ADR drop, closing at EUR 1,464.20 (-4.19%), while the ADR edged up 0.45% to $1,657.44. TSMC, its largest EUV customer, said on its Oct 15 call that 2026-28 capex will be 'significantly higher' than the prior three years, 'tool price inflation is real', N2 capacity will more than double in 2027, A14 risk production is on track for 2027, and its second Arizona fab moves to volume in Q3 2027. Mean target $2,099 (42 analysts, Strong Buy), 27% upside. Status kept at buy/high: TSMC's capex comments are direct support for EUV orders. - TER:US Teradyne - watch (medium) - Teradyne makes automated test equipment for AI accelerators, HBM memory and mobile chips, plus a robotics arm (Universal Robots, MiR); trailing revenue is $4.46B, up 57.9%. Thursday Oct 15 it fell 4.52% to $343.21, the worst of the watchlist, as chip-equipment names lagged the market; it is 23.6% below the Oct 2 close of $449.04 and has fallen eight of the last nine sessions. No company news found. TSMC's Oct 15 call is supportive on volume: N2 capacity to more than double in 2027, A14 risk production in 2027, and AI accelerator growth 'probably will be higher' than the mid-to-high-50s% guide; each new node and larger package adds test time. Mean target $446.47 (17 analysts, Buy) implies 30% upside; Baird's $420 Neutral is 22% above the price. - TSLA:US Tesla - watch (medium) - Tesla sells EVs and storage and is pivoting the story to robotaxi (Cybercab) and Optimus; trailing revenue is $103.6B, up 11.8%. Thursday Oct 15 it fell 1.29% to $362.44, a fourth straight decline, with no company news found. Tesla's 8-K confirms Q3 results after the close on Wed Oct 21 with a Q&A webcast at 5:30pm ET (08:30 AEDT Thu Oct 22); previews will focus on gross margin, the Cybercab production timeline and Optimus. The Cybercab is on show at the Paris Motor Show (to Oct 18). Mean target $396.57 (44 analysts) implies 9% upside. Whether the Roadster demo went ahead on Oct 15 could not be confirmed from a reliable source at this run. ## Bellwether changes - h100_rental: Silicon Data SDH100RT $2.85/hr as of Oct 14, unchanged and level with the Oct 9 high; +7.1% 7d. H200 $3.39 (+2.7% 7d), up 1c; A100 $1.52 (+3.8%); MI300X $2.64 (0.0%). CME H100/B200 futures: launch Nov 9 or later./bullish -> Silicon Data SDH100RT $2.81/hr as of Oct 15, down 4c from the $2.85 high; +5.6% 7d. H200 $3.37 (+1.8% 7d), down 2c; A100 $1.52 (+3.8%); MI300X $2.64 (0.0%). CME H100/B200 futures: no listing news found./bullish - b200_rental: Silicon Data B200 $5.95 as of Oct 14 (+3.8% 7d), unchanged; B300 $6.65 (+7.0% 7d), unchanged. B200/H100 ratio 2.09x (5.95/2.85). Both above the $4.50 and 2x triggers./bullish -> Silicon Data B200 $6.01 as of Oct 15 (+4.9% 7d), up 6c and a new high; B300 $6.77 (+6.4% 7d), up 12c. B200/H100 ratio 2.14x (6.01/2.81), up from 2.09x. Both above the $4.50 and 2x triggers./bullish - hopper_residual: A100 index $1.52 Oct 14 (+3.8% 7d; trigger $1.50), unchanged, two cents above the floor. H200 $3.39, up 1c. Silicon Data residual study (Jan 30 data): used H100 ~65-75% of new at 2 yrs, 45-55% at 3 yrs; low end $12-16K. No new impairments Oct 14-15./bullish -> A100 index $1.52 Oct 15 (+3.8% 7d; trigger $1.50), unchanged, two cents above the floor. H200 $3.37, down 2c. Silicon Data residual study (Jan 30 data): used H100 ~65-75% of new at 2 yrs, 45-55% at 3 yrs; low end $12-16K. No new impairments Oct 15-16./bullish - dc_cost_per_gw: 10-yr Treasury par yield 5.19% on Oct 14 (Treasury), down 2bp despite hot CPI; 2-yr up 3bp to 4.82%. September CPI 3.7% y/y vs 3.6% expected; Oct 27-28 hike odds 33.2% from 22.1%. No new campus $/GW prints (last: Vera Rubin ~$47B/GW, gas ~$60B/GW, Jupiter ~$67B/GW)./neutral -> 10-yr Treasury par yield 5.10% on Oct 15 (Treasury), down 9bp and the lowest close this month; 2-yr 4.77%, down 5bp. September PPI +1.3% m/m vs +0.5% expected; retail sales +0.8% vs +0.3%. No new campus $/GW prints (last: Vera Rubin ~$47B/GW, gas ~$60B/GW, Jupiter ~$67B/GW)./neutral - memory_prices: TrendForce spot Oct 15: DDR5 16Gb $60.43 (+0.55%), another high; DDR4 16Gb $83.66 (+0.06%), steadied; DDR4 8Gb $45.97 (flat). SK hynix -11.1%, Samsung about -10% at Thursday's close (KOSPI -7.57%); MU -4.10% Wed. Public contract table still 2H Aug./bullish -> TrendForce spot Oct 16: DDR5 16Gb $60.60 (+0.28%), another high; DDR4 16Gb $83.66 (flat); DDR4 8Gb $45.97 (flat). Friday close: Samsung +2.6%, SK hynix +0.8% after -9.5% and -11.1% Thursday; KOSPI +2.05%. MU +1.87% Thu. Public contract table still 2H Aug./bullish - capex_vs_backlog: TSMC Q3 (Oct 15): revenue $46.72B vs $44.6-45.8B guide; GM 66.4%; net income +68.7% y/y; HPC 68% of revenue, +22% q/q. Q4 guide $52.3-54.3B, GM 65-67%. Capex $13.84B in Q3, $40.64B YTD against the $60-64B 2026 range set in July./neutral -> TSMC call (Oct 15): 2026 capex kept at $60-64B; 2026 revenue growth raised to about 44% in USD; 2026-28 capex 'significantly higher' than the prior three years; AI-accelerator CAGR (mid-to-high 50s%, 2024-29) 'probably will be higher'; demand above supply, 'no sign of slowdown'. Q4 guide $52.3-54.3B./neutral - neocloud_credit: CoreWeave 9.625% 2032 notes below 80c, ~78c per Bloomberg, yield ~14.8% (Oct 14); CDS implies >50% five-year default odds. CRWV -15.5%, Nebius -10.1%, Oracle -8.8% Wednesday. CEO cites $104.2B backlog. Oracle Jupiter loans 89-91c in Sept./bearish -> CoreWeave 2031 bonds yield 15.78% (Reuters via ABC, Oct 16); 2032 notes still under 80c, no recovery above 85c found. 5-yr CDS record 1,194.5bp intraday Oct 15, implying >60% five-year default odds. CRWV +5.9% Thu after -9.5% intraday on Huang's backing; Nebius about -14% on the week./bearish - nvidia_dc: NVDA -3.16% Wednesday (AMD -5.73%, MU -4.10%, TSM ADR -3.40%, AVGO -3.10%) on hot CPI and the CoreWeave bond slide. Huang: AI-infrastructure demand to exceed supply for years. TSMC HPC +22% q/q. DC rev $89.0B (+117%), GM 75.0%, Q3 guide $108B./bullish -> NVDA -1.84% Thursday after -3.16% Wednesday. TSMC: AI demand above supply, 'no sign of slowdown', AI-accelerator CAGR likely above mid-to-high 50s%. Huang backs CoreWeave, no backstop needed; $6.3B capacity commitment runs to Apr 2032. DC rev $89.0B (+117%), GM 75.0%, Q3 guide $108B./bullish ## Calendar changes - 2026-10-15-us-ppi: 2026-10-15 08:30 ET (23:30 AEDT Thu) -> 2026-10-15 Released 08:30 ET (23:30 AEDT Thu) - 2026-10-15-us-retail-sales: 2026-10-15 08:30 ET (23:30 AEDT Thu), same slot as PPI -> 2026-10-15 Released 08:30 ET (23:30 AEDT Thu) - 2026-10-15-us-jobless-claims: 2026-10-15 08:30 ET (23:30 AEDT Thu) -> 2026-10-15 Released 08:30 ET (23:30 AEDT Thu) - 2026-10-15-philly-fed: 2026-10-15 08:30 ET (23:30 AEDT Thu) -> 2026-10-15 Released 08:30 ET (23:30 AEDT Thu) - 2026-10-15-empire-state: 2026-10-15 08:30 ET (23:30 AEDT Thu) -> 2026-10-15 Released 08:30 ET (23:30 AEDT Thu) - 2026-10-15-fed-hammack-2: 2026-10-15 16:30 ET (07:30 AEDT Fri) -> 2026-10-15 Held Thu Oct 15, Goldman Sachs event, New York - 2026-10-15-fed-warsh-imf-fireside: 2026-10-15 23:30 ET Thu (14:30 AEDT Fri Oct 16) -> 2026-10-15 Held 23:30 ET Thu (14:30 AEDT Fri Oct 16), Bangkok - added 2026-10-21 SAP SAP Q3 2026 results and analyst call - added 2026-10-28 NOW ServiceNow Q3 2026 results and call - 2026-10-28-meta-msft-q3: 2026-10-28 After US close Wed Oct 28 (Thu Oct 29 morning AEDT); call time not yet posted -> 2026-10-28 After US close; webcast 14:30 PT / 17:30 ET (08:30 AEDT Thu Oct 29) - 2026-10-29-intc-q3: 2026-10-29 14:00 PT / 17:00 ET (08:00 AEDT Fri Oct 30) -> 2026-10-29 Release after US close; call 14:00 PT / 17:00 ET (08:00 AEDT Fri Oct 30) - 2026-10-29-ecb-decision: 2026-10-29 Governing Council Oct 28-29, press conference Oct 29 (evening AEDT Thu) -> 2026-10-29 Governing Council Oct 28-29, decision and press conference Oct 29; time not on ECB calendar (Europe is on CET from Oct 25, so a mid-afternoon Frankfurt announcement lands after midnight AEDT Fri Oct 30) - TBC - added 2026-10-30 BOJ Bank of Japan policy decision and Outlook Report - added 2026-11-02 AAPL Apple fiscal Q4 2026 results and call (first under CEO John Ternus) ## New news (16) - 2026-10-15 [positive] TSM: TSMC raises 2026 sales growth forecast to about 44% in US dollars, keeps capex at $60-64B - Up from slightly over 40% in July. CFO Wendell Huang kept 2026 capex at $60-64 billion and said 2026-2028 spending will exceed the prior three years. 2nm was 8% of Q3 sales, up from 3% in Q2. CoWoS remains customers' top choice and TSMC will add capacity to meet demand. <https://focustaiwan.tw/business/202610150018> - 2026-10-15 [neutral] TSM: TSMC call: AI accelerator growth 'probably will be higher' than mid-to-high 50s%; 'prudent' on 2027 - Management did not formally lift the 2024-2029 AI accelerator CAGR but said it will probably be higher. Consumer and price-sensitive segments are being challenged by rising component prices. Overseas-fab margin dilution to widen to 3-4 points later in the five-year period. N2 capacity to more than double in 2027; A14 risk production 2027. <https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/10/15/tsmc-tsm-q3-2026-earnings-call-transcript/> - 2026-10-15 [neutral] TSM: TSMC weighing Texas production and cooperation with Musk's Terafab; Arizona second fab in Q3 2027 - C.C. Wei said talks are at the discussion stage and TSMC would need to run any fab it works on. He said US expansion is driven by requests from major American customers. Arizona's second fab is slated for volume production in Q3 2027. <https://focustaiwan.tw/business/202610150023> - 2026-10-16 [neutral] MACRO: Taiwan shares close up 0.3% at 47,111.26 Friday after Thursday's 3.41% drop - The Taiex gained 141.39 points on turnover of NT$935.96 billion. TSMC's Taipei shares slipped 0.8% on the first full session after its results. <https://focustaiwan.tw/business/202610160009> - 2026-10-15 [neutral] NVDA: Huang says CoreWeave needs no backstop as its credit swaps hit a record 1,194.5bp - Speaking in Stockholm, Huang said CoreWeave's cost of capital is decreasing. The CDS level implies over 60% default odds within five years. Nvidia owns about 10% of CoreWeave. Separately reported, unconfirmed: talks to backstop $250 billion of OpenAI data-centre financing. <https://thenextweb.com/news/huang-coreweave-backstop-stockholm> - 2026-10-15 [neutral] NVDA: Nvidia and Volvo Cars expand partnership on automated driving safety - One of two Nvidia partnership releases Thursday; the other expands work with Adobe on agentic creation tools. <https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/volvo-cars-and-nvidia-expand-partnership-to-advance-safe-automated-driving> - 2026-10-15 [positive] META: Meta launches Muse Spark Open, an 816B-parameter open-weight model that runs on Mac Studio - Natively multimodal with a 1 million-token context window, aimed at coding and agentic work; Meta calls it the most capable US open-weight model. Built with Apple to run locally; needs about 1TB of RAM. Available now through several API platforms. <https://techcrunch.com/2026/10/15/meta-launches-an-open-weight-model-that-runs-on-macs/> - 2026-10-15 [positive] BABA: Tim Cook: Apple Intelligence with Alibaba's Qwen approved in China; beta due later in October - Speaking in Shanghai, Cook said the first batch of core features can now be rolled out gradually: live translation, writing tools and photo cleanup. The upgraded Siri is not included. <https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202610/1372342.shtml> - 2026-10-15 [neutral] ANTHROPIC: Anthropic gives six METR researchers employee-level access to assess its models and safety work - METR gets company laptops and internal tools and will publish its own assessments; Anthropic can require redactions only in pre-set categories such as customer data. No IPO, S-1 or revenue update came with it. <https://techcrunch.com/2026/10/15/anthropic-is-letting-metr-researchers-look-under-the-hood-with-employee-level-access/> - 2026-10-16 [negative] MACRO: Reuters: CoreWeave 2031 bonds yield 15.78%; Oracle, Amazon, Alphabet and Meta CDS at records - CoreWeave carries more than $50B of debt. Oracle, Nvidia and other big-tech credit default swaps rose this week; Amazon, Alphabet and Meta hit records but moved far less than CoreWeave or Oracle. Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid said AI financing costs show worrying signs at the edges. <https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-10-16/investors-bracing-for-big-tech-collapse-as-debt-levels-soar/107274648> - 2026-10-16 [neutral] SKHY: KOSPI +2.05% after Black Thursday; Samsung +2.6%, SK hynix +0.8%; Nikkei +1.4% - Foreigners bought a net 172.1B won, ending an eight-session selling streak, after selling more than 3.6T won on Thursday. SK hynix faded from about +2.9% intraday. KOSPI is still 19.2% below its Oct 2 close; analysts called the buying a pause, not a reversal. <https://www.ajupress.com/view/20261016153219133> - 2026-10-15 [negative] MACRO: US PPI jumps 1.3% in September, most in 4-1/2 years; retail sales +0.8% but core sales only +0.1% - Producer prices rose 1.3% (0.5% expected) and 6.3% y/y on energy; retail sales beat at +0.8% (0.3% expected) but the control group rose just 0.1% vs 0.3%. Claims 199K. Reuters cited about 30% odds of an Oct 28 hike, with December the expected move; yields slipped. <https://virginiabusiness.com/us-producer-prices-surge-inflation-retail-sales/> - 2026-10-15 [negative] FED: Fed's Hammack: inflation-expectation slippage could force a bigger response - The Cleveland Fed president, a voter and early hike supporter, said the Fed 'might need to move even more' if an inflationary mindset sets in and that financial conditions are roughly neutral; no firm call on October (Reuters). <http://www.kitco.com/news/off-the-wire/2026-10-15/feds-hammack-warns-inflation-expectations-deterioration-could-require> - 2026-10-16 [neutral] FED: Warsh gives no October signal in Bangkok: 'will make judgements at the October and December meeting' - In his last appearance before the blackout, the Fed Chair said he does not pre-judge meetings and called the investment surge the main upside for the global economy. The dollar index slipped 0.2%. <https://www.fxstreet.com/news/breaking-feds-warsh-says-he-would-deliver-price-stability-but-wont-pre-judge-meetings-202610160346> - 2026-10-16 [positive] MACRO: Asia rebounds after the chip rout: Nikkei +1.9%, Hang Seng +1.2%; Jakarta falls over 10% on MSCI warning - After Thursday's US close (Dow +1.1%, S&P +0.3%, Nasdaq +0.1%), the Nikkei rose 1.9%, Hang Seng 1.2%, Shanghai 1% and the ASX 200 1.1%. Indonesia slumped on an MSCI downgrade warning; Brent eased 0.4% to about $105.5 (AP). <https://www.wsls.com/business/2026/10/16/stocks-rebound-after-tech-sell-off-and-indonesia-shares-sink-on-market-downgrade-warning/> - 2026-10-15 [negative] MACRO: WTI rises 2.8% on an 8.5M-barrel US crude draw; Trump weighs easing shadow-fleet tanker sanctions - Largest weekly crude draw since February; total US stocks including the SPR are the lowest since March 1984. Brent held near $105.8 as Hormuz and Houthi-Saudi risks offset IEA stock releases. <https://in.investing.com/news/commodities-news/oil-edges-lower-after-hot-us-cpi-iea-meeting-in-focus-5633979> ## Notes US Thursday (hot PPI, bond rally) plus Friday Asia and the TSMC call. US prices are Thursday Oct 15 closes (stockanalysis.com; AXOS via the AX page; LDI 0.5670 computed from Wednesday's 0.4958 and +14.36%, page shows 0.57). No take, watchlist status or bellwether signal changes. FIGR rebounded 10.5% but stays hold with the watch flag live. MU stays watch despite +1.9% (HSBC/Daiwa call CXMT fears overstated; TradingKey source dropped as a news item). TSMC call: 2026 growth raised to about 44% in USD (confirms last run's unconfirmed TokenPost figure), capex kept at $60-64B, 2026-28 capex significantly higher, AI-accelerator CAGR 'probably will be higher' than mid-to-high 50s%, 'prudent' on 2027 consumer, overseas-fab dilution 3-4 points later. Sources: Focus Taiwan and the Motley Fool transcript; the Investing.com AI-assisted transcript was dropped as a duplicate. Conflicts resolved: KOSPI Friday close +2.05% (Aju Press, 15:32 KST) over Trading Economics' +3.41%; Taiex +0.3% (Focus Taiwan) over AP's +0.6%; Nikkei given as 1.4-1.9% (AP story stamped before the close). Chip index Thursday -0.88%, seventh straight loss (BigGo, consistent with AP); Bloomingbit's +0.34% chip index and Broadcom +3.67% dropped. S&P 500 close 7,744.06 (BigGo) vs 7,744.81 in one holdings source. Credit: CoreWeave 5-yr CDS record 1,194.5bp intraday (ICE via TradingKey); 2031 bonds yield 15.78% (Reuters via ABC). Barron's/Reuters 2032-note prices seen only in snippets, not used. Neocloud signal stays bearish; revisit above 85c. Calendar: existing-home-sales check done - NAR did release September data on Oct 13 (3.99M), and there is no such entry in calendar.json, so nothing to fix. Added SAP Oct 21, ServiceNow Oct 28, BoJ Oct 30 (time TBC), Apple Nov 2 (09:00 AEDT Tue Nov 3); Microsoft webcast 08:30 AEDT Thu Oct 29; Intel link updated; ECB Oct 29 time TBC. Not rechecked: Leading Index, flash PMI, UMich final, AU CPI time, RBA time. Amazon Q3 date still unannounced; Tesla Roadster Oct 15 event unverified. Not found: Anthropic S-1 or bank lineup, OpenAI round close, Stripe news, Meta New Mexico ruling, loanDepot NYSE follow-up, Robinhood September metrics (late), BYD weekly registrations, Vertiv/Teradyne Q3 dates, Nvidia-OpenAI $250B backstop confirmation.
Nothing here is financial advice. Holdings and opinions are my own; the "agent" sections are written by an automated research skill and may be wrong. Built 2026-10-16 13:53 UTC.