← research log

# Research run 2026-10-17T07:50 UTC

## What changed

- Nasdaq fell 2.1% Friday, its worst week since June (-4.5%); chip index down eight straight days, 24% off its June high.
- Rough week for AI holdings: Marvell -17%, Micron -15%, TSMC ADR -9%, Nvidia -7%; Netflix the only holding up.
- CoreWeave fell 11% Friday, about 25% on the week, as its 2031 bond yield topped 16%; neocloud bellwether stays bearish.
- Reuters: some Anthropic investors now discuss a $1.5T IPO valuation, down from about $2T, after Q3 growth slowed to 45%.
- Brent touched $110 on Hormuz and Saudi attacks; October Fed hike odds fell to about 15-17% after Warsh gave no signal.
- Next: China Q3 GDP Mon 13:00 AEDT (4.4% expected); Netflix Wed 07:00 AEDT; Meta Thu 07:30 AEDT; Tesla Thu 08:30 AEDT.

## Market summary

Friday's US close was a broad tech sell-off: S&P 500 -1.1% to 7,659.44, Nasdaq -2.1% to 26,140.03 and Dow -0.3% to 52,002.41; for the week the Nasdaq lost 4.5% (worst week since June), the S&P 500 1.9% and the Russell 2000 3.0%, while the Dow gained 0.7%. The Philadelphia semiconductor index fell 3.83% to 11,137.29, an eighth straight loss and the longest streak since 2008; it is down 15.7% from Oct 6 and 23.9% below its June record (Nvidia -10.5% and Micron -15.9% since Oct 6, TSMC's ADR -2.3% Friday), with AI-financing worries, China memory competition and oil cited. Rates did not drive it: the 10-year sat near 5.09-5.11%, down from 5.27% on Oct 6, and October hike odds fell to about 15-16% (from about a third Thursday) after Warsh gave no signal, while futures still lean to a December hike (about 74% on CME FedWatch per AP; one money-market read about 89%); Friday data were firm, with September import prices +1.1% (fuel +4.8%) and industrial production +0.7% (0.4% expected). Brent touched $110 for the first time since May and settled at $109.86 (+3.7%, about +5% on the week) and WTI at $101.41 (+3.5%, over +10% on the week) as Iran stepped up Hormuz attacks and the Houthis fired on Saudi Arabia; the UK monitor counted 10 Hormuz attacks this week and a tanker was hit off Saudi Arabia on Friday. Gold was about $4,165-4,180, bitcoin about $81,500, the VIX near 20; in Hong Kong on Friday the Hang Seng closed +0.52% at 24,186.83 and HS Tech +1.16% at 4,108.24. The FOMC blackout started today, so no Fed speakers before the decision. Next: China Q3 GDP (4.4% y/y expected), retail sales and industrial output 13:00 AEDT Mon Oct 19; Netflix 07:01 AEDT Wed Oct 21; SAP 07:05, Meta and TI 07:30, IBM and Lam 08:00, Tesla 08:30 AEDT Thu Oct 22; US leading index 01:00 AEDT Fri Oct 23; Spotify Q&A 23:00 AEDT Thu Oct 22; US flash PMIs 00:45 and UMich final 01:00 AEDT Sat Oct 24; AU CPI 11:30 AEDT Wed Oct 28; Fed decision 05:00 AEDT Thu Oct 29.

## Holdings

- AMZN: hold - Down 1.9% Friday and 4.7% for the week as the Nasdaq fell 2.1% on doubts over AI-infrastructure payback and tech borrowing. No company news found for Oct 16-17. Q3 about Fri Oct 30 07:00 AEDT. Hold.
- AXOS: hold - Up 0.7% Friday and down only 0.3% for the week, the steadiest holding. The 10-year yield held near 5.09% while stocks fell, and October hike odds eased to about 17%. Fiscal Q1 Fri Oct 30 08:00 AEDT. Hold.
- BABA: hold - US ADR fell 1.8% Friday (-2.0% week) with the US tech selloff, after Hong Kong shares rose 2.3% earlier Friday as the Hang Seng Tech index gained 1.2%. The Qwen-powered Apple Intelligence beta is still due in China later in October. China Q3 GDP Mon Oct 19 13:00 AEDT. Hold.
- ENPH: watch - Down 0.6% Friday and 6.7% for the week, a choppy run that included -8.4% Wednesday and +5.0% Thursday. No company news found. Q3 call Wed Oct 28 07:30 AEDT. Watch.
- FIGR: hold - Down 2.0% Friday after Thursday's 10.5% jump, leaving it 4.9% lower for the week. Mortgage News Daily's 30-year ticked up 0.04 points to 7.37% Friday but is still 0.27 points below Oct 7. No company news found; still near its 52-week low, so the watch flag stays live. Hold.
- GOOGL: add - Down 2.5% Friday and 3.1% for the week as AI-linked names sold off on spending and debt worries. Nothing company-specific changed, and TSMC's raised 2026 outlook (about 44% growth, AI demand above supply) still supports the TPU and Cloud case. Q3 results 07:30 AEDT Thu Oct 29. Add stays.
- LDI: trim - Down 5.8% Friday, giving back much of Thursday's 14.4% jump, and 5.0% lower for the week. Mortgage News Daily's 30-year rose 0.04 points to 7.37% Friday, and the stock remains under the NYSE minimum-price standard. Trim.
- META: hold - Down 3.7% Friday and 1.3% for the week as AI spenders sold off and CoreWeave, a major Meta compute supplier, fell more than 11% on credit fears. No company news found. Q3 call Thu Oct 22 07:30 AEDT, where capex guidance is the test. Hold.
- MRVL: hold - Down 5.6% Friday and 17.2% for the week, the worst holding, as chip stocks fell on doubts that AI-infrastructure spending will pay off. No company news found; TSMC's call still points to custom-chip demand above supply. Hold, but this is now the biggest weekly drawdown in the book.
- MU: watch - Down 5.6% Friday and 14.6% for the week as CXMT DRAM fears and AI-spending doubts hit memory again. Micron's COO said the new Taichung plant's 2027 capacity is sold out, and Taiwan's president urged both sides to negotiate. Union rally in Taipei Mon Oct 19; Taichung mediation Thu Oct 22. Watch.
- NFLX: hold - Down 2.9% Friday but up 0.3% for the week, the only holding higher. Netflix named former Disney TV chair Peter Rice chief content officer from Oct 26, replacing Bela Bajaria, a day after confirming 6% job cuts. Q3 results Wed Oct 21 07:00 AEDT. Hold into the print.
- NVDA: hold - Down 1.4% Friday and 6.6% for the week. CoreWeave fell more than 11% Friday with swaps pricing more than a 50% chance of default within five years, a day after Huang said it needed no backstop. GTC Berlin Oct 20-22. Hold.
- OPENAI: hold - No close found for the roughly $30 billion round at about $1.4 trillion pre-money, so the mark multiple stays 5.43. Reuters reports Anthropic investors now discuss a lower IPO valuation (about $1.5 trillion, down from about $2 trillion) after its Q3 growth slowed, a softer read-across for AI-lab marks. Hold.
- RKT: watch - Down 2.6% Friday and 6.1% for the week. Mortgage News Daily's 30-year rose 0.04 points to 7.37% Friday, though it is 0.27 points lower than Oct 7, a gain MND ties to AI-selloff fears rather than softer inflation. Q3 around Oct 29. Watch.
- STRIPE: hold - No new round, tender or secondary mark found; the last tender was February at $159 billion, so the mark multiple stays 2.27. No company news found for Oct 16-17. Hold.
- TSM: add - ADR down 2.3% Friday and 9.0% for the week despite a record quarter, a 2026 growth outlook raised to about 44% and Q4 guidance above consensus. The selloff is about AI-spending sentiment, not TSMC's numbers. Add stays.

## Watchlist

- ALAB:US Astera Labs - watch (medium) - Astera Labs sells PCIe, CXL and Ethernet connectivity silicon for AI racks; Q2 revenue was $392M (+105% y/y) and Q3 guidance is EPS $1.16-1.21 on consensus revenue of about $551M. Friday Oct 16 it fell 5.35% to $285.82 (low $282.79) as the Nasdaq fell 2.1% on AI-debt worries and CoreWeave dropped nearly 12%; no company news found. It lost 16.5% on the week and is 25.2% below the Oct 7 close of $382.25. TSMC's Oct 15 call still backs demand: AI accelerator growth 'probably will be higher' than the mid-to-high-50s% 2024-29 guide and 2026-28 capex 'significantly higher' than the prior three years. Consensus target $391.77 (26 analysts, Buy), 37% upside.
- AVGO:US Broadcom - accumulate (medium) - Broadcom supplies custom AI accelerators (Google, Meta, OpenAI's Jalapeno) plus Ethernet networking and VMware software. The WSJ reported Oct 7 that it is lining up $50B+ of financing so OpenAI can buy its chips. Friday Oct 16 it fell 4.52% to $328.75, closing at the day's low, in a chip selloff CBS tied to worries about debt-funded AI build-outs and Anthropic's slowing growth; down 9.1% on the week. No Broadcom-specific news found. TSMC's Oct 15 call supports custom-silicon volume (accelerator growth 'probably will be higher' than guided; 5x-reticle CoWoS in production, 9x and 14x in development). Consensus target $531.31 (50 analysts, Strong Buy), 62% upside.
- CLS:US Celestica - watch (medium) - Celestica designs and builds 800G/1.6T networking switches, servers and storage for hyperscalers. Q2 2026 revenue was $4.70B (+62% y/y); it guided Q3 to $5.25-5.55B revenue and adjusted EPS $2.88-3.08, and raised 2026 to $20.5B revenue (+65%) and $11.30 adjusted EPS (+87%). Friday Oct 16 it fell 3.63% to $303.81, a third straight decline, and lost 16.1% on the week; no company news found. Q3 results are confirmed for Mon Oct 26 after close, with the call and an Investor and Analyst Day on Tue Oct 27. Mean target $473.91 (22 analysts, Strong Buy) implies 56% upside; the lowest target ($375) is 23% above the price.
- CRDO:US Credo Technology - watch (medium) - Credo sells active electrical cables, optical DSPs and PCIe/Ethernet retimers that connect GPUs and switches inside AI data centres. Fiscal Q1 2027 (to Aug 1) revenue was $479M, up 115% year on year, gross margin 64.5%, net income $129M; consensus has FY27 revenue +87% to about $2.5B. Friday Oct 16 it fell 4.93% to $169.70, a sixth straight decline, and lost 21.6% on the week, the worst of the watchlist; no company news found. Mean target $279.09 (20 analysts, Strong Buy) implies 64% upside; the price is now 8% below the lowest target ($185).
- SKHY:US SK hynix ADR - buy (high) - SK hynix is the leading HBM supplier to Nvidia and the number-two DRAM maker; the Nasdaq ADR listed in July. Seoul steadied Friday Oct 16 (1,272,000 won, +0.79%), but the ADR fell 6.58% to $136.49 in the US session as chip stocks sold off on AI-debt worries (Micron -5.6%, per CBS); the ADR lost 19.3% on the week and is 30.1% below the Oct 2 close of $195.13. The ADR trades after Seoul, so Friday's drop points to a weak Seoul open on Monday. TSMC's Oct 15 call said AI demand shows 'no sign of slowdown'. Consensus target $252.21 (15 analysts, Strong Buy), 85% upside. Status and conviction unchanged: the falls are market-wide and about China competition, rates and AI financing; no change to HBM orders or guidance has been reported.
- BE:US Bloom Energy - watch (medium) - Bloom Energy makes solid-oxide fuel cells for onsite data-centre power; Q2 revenue was a record $1.07B and FY26 guidance is $3.9-4.2B, anchored by Oracle (up to 2.8 GW) and Brookfield ($25B). Friday Oct 16 it fell 6.34% to $221.31 (low $219.17) and lost 21.1% on the week, with no company news found. Bloom confirmed on Oct 12 that Q3 results come Oct 22 after the US close. Consensus target $284.74 (29 analysts, Buy) is 29% above the price; UBS $350, Bernstein Hold $282.
- GEV:US GE Vernova - accumulate (high) - GE Vernova builds gas turbines, grid equipment and wind for the power build-out; Q2 revenue was $11.1B (+22% y/y) with gas capacity largely contracted through 2030. Friday Oct 16 it slipped 0.57% to $921.20 after trading as high as $951.00, the steadiest AI-power name on a day the S&P 500 fell 1.1%; down 8.3% on the week. No company news found. JPMorgan cut its target to $1,150 from $1,330 on Oct 9, keeping Overweight. Consensus target $1,225 (37 analysts, Buy), 33% upside.
- VRT:US Vertiv - accumulate (medium) - Vertiv sells power, thermal and liquid-cooling gear for data centres; Q2 sales were $3.27B (+24%) and it guided Q3 to $3.65-3.85B and EPS $1.77-1.83, lifting FY26 EPS to $6.65-6.75. Friday Oct 16 it fell 3.88% to $206.42, a seventh straight decline, and lost 15.0% on the week; no company news found. Vertiv announced on Oct 14 that Q3 results come Wed Oct 28 before the US open, with the call at 11am ET. Consensus target $337.43 (30 analysts, Strong Buy), 63% upside.
- HOOD:US Robinhood - accumulate (medium) - Robinhood is a retail brokerage adding prediction markets, perpetual futures, earnings contracts and Robinhood Agents (announced Sep 29); Q2 revenue was $1.31B (+32%), net income $561M. August data (released Sep 10): 28.6M funded customers, $384B platform assets (+8% m/m), $4.0B net deposits, equity volume $335B (+68% y/y). Friday Oct 16 it fell 4.92% to $98.87, giving back Thursday's 2.88% gain, and lost 9.3% on the week; no company news found. September operating data still not found as of 18:00 AEDT Oct 17 (IR site blocked to fetch; searches return only August). Consensus target $134.68 (30 analysts, Buy), 36% upside; Morgan Stanley $160 (Oct 9).
- MELI:US MercadoLibre - accumulate (medium) - MercadoLibre runs Latin America's largest marketplace, logistics network and the Mercado Pago fintech; Q2 net revenue was $10.2B (+50% y/y), GMV $21.9B (+44%), TPV $101B (+56%), with operating income down 17% to $683M. The stock is riding Brazil's election: Flavio Bolsonaro leads Lula 52-48 in valid votes in Datafolha (Oct 8) and 52.8-47.2 in AtlasIntel/Bloomberg (Oct 9). Friday Oct 16 it fell 1.24% to $1,834.00, down only 3.0% on a week when the Nasdaq lost more than 4%; no company news found. Consensus target $2,276 (26 analysts, Buy), 24% upside.
- NET:US Cloudflare - accumulate (high) - Cloudflare runs a global edge network selling security, CDN, zero-trust and the Workers developer platform; trailing revenue is $2.51B, up 33.5%. Friday Oct 16 it fell 6.33% to $296.30 (low $291.15), a fifth straight decline, and lost 17.9% on the week; no company news found. It opened at $319.00 and sold off with the Nasdaq (-2.1%). The mean target of $341 (34 analysts, Buy) is now 15% above the price; BTIG $413 and Oppenheimer $430 imply 39-45%. Q3 date still not announced (last year's notice came Oct 9 for an Oct 30 report).
- SE:US Sea Limited - accumulate (medium) - Sea runs Shopee (e-commerce), SeaMoney (digital finance) and Garena (games) across Southeast Asia and Brazil; trailing revenue is $27.7B, up 43.1%. Friday Oct 16 it opened at $99.34 and touched $100.00, then fell 3.83% to $93.77 with the market; down 1.6% on the week, the smallest loss on the watchlist. No company news found. Forward PE is 22 against 40%+ revenue growth, market cap $58B. Mean target $154.93 (29 analysts, Strong Buy) implies 65% upside; DBS Hold $105 and Arete Buy $152 bracket the range.
- 1211:HK BYD - watch (medium) - BYD is the largest NEV maker with in-house batteries and chips and a growing export push; September sales were 463,561 (+17%). Hong Kong closed Friday Oct 16 at HK$73.75 (+1.10%, about US$9.40 at 7.848 HKD/USD), down 2.4% on the week. CnEVPost reported Oct 16 that BYD picked Sime Darby's Inokom plant for local CKD assembly in Malaysia (models and timing not announced), and BYD's share of China's EV battery installs was 21.09% in September versus CATL's 40.92%. The second-generation Seagull launches Oct 20. JPMorgan Neutral HK$88 implies 19% upside. CnEVPost has not published weekly China registrations for Oct 5-11 or Oct 12-18.
- 6861:JP Keyence - buy (high) - Keyence sells machine-vision, sensors and measurement gear direct to factories with industry-leading margins and no debt; trailing revenue is JPY 1.25T, up 16.9%. Friday Oct 16 it closed at JPY 80,760 (+2.27%, about US$511 at 157.99 JPY/USD), recovering all of Thursday's 1.69% fall; no company news found. Tokyo closed before Friday's US chip selloff, so Monday's open will reflect it. TSMC's Oct 15 call (N2 capacity to more than double in 2027, 3nm additions in Taiwan, Arizona and Japan) points to continued fab and electronics-assembly spending, a core Keyence end market. Mean target of JPY 97,867 (15 analysts, Strong Buy) implies 21% upside. Fiscal Q2 results listed for Oct 29 (StockAnalysis; treat as TBC).
- ASML:US ASML Holding - buy (high) - ASML is the only supplier of EUV lithography tools for leading-edge chips. Q3 2026 (Oct 14): net sales EUR 11.66B (record; a touch under the EUR 11.72B consensus), gross margin 57.5%, net income EUR 4.96B; Q4 guide EUR 14.2-15.2B at about 57%, lifting 2026 to EUR 44-45B, and the CEO said 2027-28 supply 'will not fully meet the demand of our customers'. Friday Oct 16 Amsterdam rose 0.89% to EUR 1,477.20 before the US selloff, while the ADR slipped 0.96% to $1,641.52, holding up far better than US chip names (Broadcom -4.5%, AMD -6%); both lines fell 7.8% on the week. TSMC said Oct 15 that 2026-28 capex will be 'significantly higher' than the prior three years and 'tool price inflation is real'. Mean target $2,099 (42 analysts, Strong Buy), 28% upside. Status kept at buy/high.
- TER:US Teradyne - watch (medium) - Teradyne makes automated test equipment for AI accelerators, HBM memory and mobile chips, plus a robotics arm (Universal Robots, MiR); trailing revenue is $4.46B, up 57.9%; Q3 guidance is revenue $1.20-1.30B. Friday Oct 16 it fell 5.31% to $325.00, closing near the $324.09 low; it has fallen nine of the last ten sessions, lost 19.3% on the week and is 27.6% below the Oct 2 close of $449.04. No company news found. TSMC's Oct 15 call is supportive on volume: N2 capacity to more than double in 2027 and AI accelerator growth 'probably will be higher' than guided; each new node and larger package adds test time. Mean target $446.47 (17 analysts, Buy) implies 37% upside; Baird's $420 Neutral is 29% above the price.
- TSLA:US Tesla - watch (medium) - Tesla sells EVs and storage and is pivoting the story to robotaxi (Cybercab) and Optimus; trailing revenue is $103.6B, up 11.8%. It unveiled the next-generation Roadster on Thursday evening Oct 15 at SpaceX's McGregor, Texas test site, showing short-burst flight on compressed-air thrusters and a claimed 0-60 mph of 0.81 seconds, with production 'in 2028, actually' per Musk. Friday Oct 16 it opened at $369.15 and hit $385.51 (+6.4%) before reversing to close down 2.13% at $354.72 in the tech selloff, a fifth straight decline and -7.3% on the week. Q3 results come Wed Oct 21 after the close with a Q&A at 5:30pm ET (08:30 AEDT Thu Oct 22); previews focus on gross margin, the Cybercab ramp and Optimus. Mean target $396.57 (44 analysts) implies 12% upside.

## Bellwether changes

- h100_rental: Silicon Data SDH100RT $2.81/hr as of Oct 15, down 4c from the $2.85 high; +5.6% 7d. H200 $3.37 (+1.8% 7d), down 2c; A100 $1.52 (+3.8%); MI300X $2.64 (0.0%). CME H100/B200 futures: no listing news found./bullish -> Silicon Data SDH100RT $2.83/hr as of Oct 16, up 2c and +6.8% 7d, 2c under the $2.85 high. H200 $3.45 (+4.5% 7d), up 8c; A100 $1.52 (+3.8%); MI300X $2.64 (0.0%). CME H100/B200 futures: no listing news found./bullish
- b200_rental: Silicon Data B200 $6.01 as of Oct 15 (+4.9% 7d), up 6c and a new high; B300 $6.77 (+6.4% 7d), up 12c. B200/H100 ratio 2.14x (6.01/2.81), up from 2.09x. Both above the $4.50 and 2x triggers./bullish -> Silicon Data B200 $6.01 as of Oct 16 (+5.3% 7d), flat on Oct 15's high; B300 $6.96, up 19c. B200/H100 ratio 2.12x (6.01/2.83), down from 2.14x as H100 rose. Both above the $4.50 and 2x triggers./bullish
- hopper_residual: A100 index $1.52 Oct 15 (+3.8% 7d; trigger $1.50), unchanged, two cents above the floor. H200 $3.37, down 2c. Silicon Data residual study (Jan 30 data): used H100 ~65-75% of new at 2 yrs, 45-55% at 3 yrs; low end $12-16K. No new impairments Oct 15-16./bullish -> A100 index $1.52 Oct 16 (+3.8% 7d; trigger $1.50), unchanged for a third day, two cents above the floor. H200 $3.45, up 8c. Silicon Data residual study (Jan 30 data): used H100 ~65-75% of new at 2 yrs, 45-55% at 3 yrs; low end $12-16K. No new impairments Oct 16-17./bullish
- dc_cost_per_gw: 10-yr Treasury par yield 5.10% on Oct 15 (Treasury), down 9bp and the lowest close this month; 2-yr 4.77%, down 5bp. September PPI +1.3% m/m vs +0.5% expected; retail sales +0.8% vs +0.3%. No new campus $/GW prints (last: Vera Rubin ~$47B/GW, gas ~$60B/GW, Jupiter ~$67B/GW)./neutral -> 10-yr Treasury par yield 5.09% on Oct 16 (Treasury), down 1bp, a new low for the month and 22bp under the Oct 5 high; 2-yr 4.74%, down 3bp. No new campus $/GW prints (last: Vera Rubin ~$47B/GW, gas ~$60B/GW, Jupiter ~$67B/GW)./neutral
- memory_prices: TrendForce spot Oct 16: DDR5 16Gb $60.60 (+0.28%), another high; DDR4 16Gb $83.66 (flat); DDR4 8Gb $45.97 (flat). Friday close: Samsung +2.6%, SK hynix +0.8% after -9.5% and -11.1% Thursday; KOSPI +2.05%. MU +1.87% Thu. Public contract table still 2H Aug./bullish -> TrendForce spot Oct 16: DDR5 16Gb $60.60 (+0.28%), a high; DDR4 16Gb $83.66 (flat); DDR4 8Gb $45.97 (flat). No new session since. Public contract table still 2H Aug; no Q4 DRAM or HBM contract figures found./bullish
- neocloud_credit: CoreWeave 2031 bonds yield 15.78% (Reuters via ABC, Oct 16); 2032 notes still under 80c, no recovery above 85c found. 5-yr CDS record 1,194.5bp intraday Oct 15, implying >60% five-year default odds. CRWV +5.9% Thu after -9.5% intraday on Huang's backing; Nebius about -14% on the week./bearish -> CoreWeave fell more than 11% Friday, nearly 25% on the week; its Oct 2031 bond briefly yielded over 16% Thursday and lost about 3c this week, a fifth weekly fall (Reuters). CDS above 1,000bp, a record. 2032 notes: no recovery above 85c found. Nebius -12%, Applied Digital and IREN -11% Friday (quotes)./bearish
- nvidia_dc: NVDA -1.84% Thursday after -3.16% Wednesday. TSMC: AI demand above supply, 'no sign of slowdown', AI-accelerator CAGR likely above mid-to-high 50s%. Huang backs CoreWeave, no backstop needed; $6.3B capacity commitment runs to Apr 2032. DC rev $89.0B (+117%), GM 75.0%, Q3 guide $108B./bullish -> NVDA -1.4% Friday, -6.6% on the week (after -1.84% Thu). Huang in Berlin: AI selloff 'going to pass'. Germany industrial-AI partnership, several hundred million euros, expected next week (Reuters/Handelsblatt). DC rev $89.0B (+117%), GM 75.0%, Q3 guide $108B./bullish

## Calendar changes

- added 2026-10-28 VRT Vertiv Q3 2026 results and call (confirmed Oct 14)
- added 2026-10-20 1211 BYD second-generation Seagull launch
- 2026-10-16-us-import-prices-ip: 2026-10-16 Import/export prices 08:30 ET (23:30 AEDT Fri); industrial production 09:15 ET (00:15 AEDT Sat) -> 2026-10-16 Released 08:30 ET (23:30 AEDT Fri) and 09:15 ET (00:15 AEDT Sat)
- 2026-10-16-opex: 2026-10-16 US close 16:00 ET (07:00 AEDT Sat Oct 17) -> 2026-10-16 Done: US close 16:00 ET (07:00 AEDT Sat Oct 17)
- 2026-10-19-china-gdp: 2026-10-19 10:00 CST Mon (13:00 AEDT Mon; 22:00 ET Sun) -> 2026-10-19 10:00 Beijing Mon (13:00 AEDT Mon; 22:00 ET Sun Oct 18)
- removed 2026-10-21-vrt-q3
- added 2026-10-29 AMZN Amazon Q3 2026 results and call (confirmed Oct 15)
- added 2026-10-27 MACRO US September advance durable goods orders (Census)
- added 2026-10-27 MACRO US September new home sales (Census)
- 2026-11-03-rba-decision: 2026-11-03 TBC (decision on day two of the 2-3 Nov Monetary Policy Board meeting; Melbourne Cup day) -> 2026-11-03 Statement on Monetary Policy 14:30 AEDT Tue Nov 3 (22:30 ET Mon Nov 2); decision usually released at the same time, press conference TBC

## New news (13)

- 2026-10-15 [neutral] NFLX: Netflix names Peter Rice chief content officer from Oct 26; Bela Bajaria leaves - Rice, former chairman of Walt Disney Television and president of 21st Century Fox, will run global series, film and live content. Bajaria leaves after nearly ten years. The change follows the confirmed 6% job cuts and comes days before Q3 results on Wed Oct 21 07:00 AEDT. <https://about.netflix.com/en/news/peter-rice-named-netflix-chief-content-officer>
- 2026-10-15 [neutral] MU: Taiwan's president urges Micron and unions to negotiate; COO says Taichung 2027 capacity sold out - Lai Ching-te spoke at the opening of Micron's new Taichung assembly and test plant. Unions want a concrete profit-sharing plan and are urging members to take Oct 19 off for a Taipei rally, which they say is not a strike. COO Manish Bhatia said the plant's 2027 capacity is sold out and HBM should outgrow the rest of DRAM through 2028. Micron has about 15,000 staff in Taiwan. <https://www.thestandard.com.hk/china/article/345564/Taiwan-president-calls-for-Micron-workers-to-negotiate-sincerely-ahead-of-possible-strike>
- 2026-10-16 [positive] BABA: Alibaba rises 2.3% in Hong Kong as Hang Seng Tech gains 1.16% - The Hang Seng closed up 0.52% at 24,186 on HK$178.2 billion turnover, led by tech. Kuaishou rose 2.5% after releasing Kling 4.0 and Lenovo rebounded 8%. Alibaba's US ADR later fell 1.8% in the US tech selloff. <https://www.thestandard.com.hk/finance/article/345687/Hong-Kong-shares-close-higher-Lenovo-up-8-percent>
- 2026-10-16 [negative] MACRO: Nasdaq falls 2.1% to 26,140, its worst week since June, on AI-debt worries; CoreWeave -12% - Friday Oct 16: Nasdaq -573 points (-2.1%) to 26,140, S&P 500 -1.1%, Dow -0.3%. CoreWeave fell nearly 12% (about -24% on the week) on debt worries; AMD -6%, Intel -5.8%, Micron -5.6%, Broadcom -4.5%, Tesla -2.1%. CBS also cited doubts over Anthropic's revenue momentum. 10-year yield about 5.1%; CME odds of a December Fed hike 74.3%, up from 50.2% a month ago. Watchlist on the week: CRDO -21.6%, BE -21.1%, TER -19.3%, SKHY ADR -19.3%, NET -17.9%, ALAB -16.5%, CLS -16.1%. <https://cbsnews.com/news/tech-stocks-slide-ai-debt-concerns>
- 2026-10-15 [negative] ANTHROPIC: Reuters: some Anthropic investors now discuss a ~$1.5T IPO valuation, down from ~$2T - Per four people familiar, attendees at Anthropic's investor day in San Francisco (with CEO Dario Amodei and CFO Krishna Rao) discussed about $1.5T for the November IPO after Q3 revenue growth slowed to 45% q/q ($16.8B) from more than doubling in Q2 ($11.6B). Anthropic has committed to at least $518B of cloud and compute spending over a decade. No exchange or banks named; Anthropic did not comment. Cited by CBS as one reason for Friday's tech selloff. <https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/exclusiveinvestors-temper-anthropic-ipo-valuation-expectations-over-revenue-growth-slowdown-sources-say-4952698>
- 2026-10-16 [positive] AAPL: iPhone Duo preorders open at $1,999 and sell out; new orders now ship late January - Apple's first foldable opened for preorder Oct 16 from $1,999 (over $3,000 at 2TB). Within 30 minutes shipping estimates for new orders slipped to late January 2027, more than three months out; 9to5Mac says supply, not demand, is the constraint. Apple rose 0.43% Friday to $343.46 against a 2.1% Nasdaq fall, +2.0% on the week. FQ4 results Nov 2; Duo sales land in the December quarter. <https://9to5mac.com/2026/10/16/iphone-duo-launch-is-a-massive-success-but-apple-has-a-problem/>
- 2026-10-15 [neutral] TSLA: Tesla shows a 'flying' Roadster at SpaceX's Texas site; production 2028; stock reverses to -2.1% - Unveiled Thursday evening at SpaceX's McGregor test facility: compressed-air thrusters for short-burst flight over cars, claimed 0-60 mph in 0.81 s, target top speed Mach 0.5, no price given. Musk said production starts 2028. Friday the stock opened $369.15, hit $385.51, then closed -2.13% at $354.72 in the tech selloff. Q3 results Oct 21 after close (08:30 AEDT Thu Oct 22). <https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/tesla-unveils-new-roadster-with-flight-capabilities-set-for-production-in-2028-4952962>
- 2026-10-16 [positive] 1211: BYD picks Sime Darby's Inokom plant for CKD assembly in Malaysia; HK shares +1.1% - BYD will use existing capacity at Inokom for local assembly in Malaysia; models and timing not announced. BYD had 21.09% of China's EV battery installs in September vs CATL 40.92%. Hong Kong closed Friday at HK$73.75 (+1.10%), -2.4% on the week. Second-gen Seagull launches Oct 20, 19:00 Beijing (22:00 AEDT). Weekly China registrations for October still not published by CnEVPost. <https://cnevpost.com/2026/10/16/byd-picks-ckd-assembly-partner-malaysia/>
- 2026-10-14 [neutral] VRT: Vertiv sets Q3 results for Wed Oct 28 before the US open, call 11am ET - Announced Oct 14: Q3 2026 results Wed Oct 28 before market open; call 11:00 ET (02:00 AEDT Thu Oct 29), with a Q3 presentation on investors.vertiv.com. Company guide is Q3 sales $3.65-3.85B and EPS $1.77-1.83. Not Oct 21 as previously listed. Stock -3.88% Friday to $206.42, a seventh straight fall. <https://finviz.com/news/402308/vertiv-announces-date-of-third-quarter-2026-earnings-release-and-conference-call>
- 2026-10-16 [negative] MACRO: CoreWeave falls more than 11%, nearly 25% on the week; 2031 bond yield briefly topped 16% - Reuters: CoreWeave's October 2031 bond was set for a fifth weekly fall, down about 3 cents this week, and its CDS passed 1,000bp to a record (S&P Global). Nebius, Applied Digital and IREN fell about 11-12% Friday. ARK bought more than 381,000 shares over two sessions. <https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/coreweave-shares-bonds-headed-for-steep-weekly-losses-as-ai-borrowing-concerns-mount-4953586>
- 2026-10-16 [negative] MACRO: Chip index falls 3.83%, an eighth straight loss and longest streak since 2008; 23.9% below June record - SOX closed at 11,137.29, down 15.7% since Oct 6. Over that span Nvidia -10.5%, Micron -15.9%, Lam -21.0%, Intel -20.1%; TSMC's ADR fell 2.3% Friday. Yields fell over the period, so rates do not explain it; AI-financing worries are the best-fit reason. <https://www.techi.com/chip-stocks-eighth-straight-day-longest-since-2008/>
- 2026-10-16 [negative] MACRO: Brent touches $110, first time since May, and settles at $109.86 (+3.7%) on Hormuz attacks and Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia - WTI settled at $101.41 (+3.5%). On the week WTI rose more than 10% and Brent nearly 5%. Ukraine also vowed to keep hitting Russian refineries. <https://www.businesstoday.in/markets/story/brent-hits-110-as-hormuz-ship-attacks-houthi-strikes-on-saudi-trigger-oil-rally-562207-2026-10-17>
- 2026-10-16 [neutral] MACRO: US September industrial production rises 0.7% (0.4% expected); import prices +1.1% with fuel +4.8% - Utilities output +3.5%, manufacturing +0.3%, capacity use 76.9%; IP +2.2% y/y. Import prices +8.1% y/y, fuel +34.5% y/y; export prices +2.2% m/m. <https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/current/default.htm>

## Notes

US Friday Oct 16 close (options expiry) plus the weekend. US prices are Friday closes (stockanalysis.com; AXOS via AX; LDI 0.5344 from the page header). Weekly moves are vs the Oct 9 close.

No take, watchlist status or bellwether signal changes. MRVL (-17.2% week) stays hold with no company news but is flagged as the biggest weekly drawdown in the book; MU stays watch (-14.6% week); FIGR stays hold with the watch flag live. SK hynix stays buy/high but is 30% below its Oct 2 close; review if Seoul breaks Thursday's 1,262,000 won low.

Chip index: Friday -3.83% was the eighth straight loss (TECHi/Bloomberg), so last run's 'seventh straight' was Thursday's and is consistent.

Fed odds conflict: Oct 28 hike about 15-17% (Barchart, FXStreet). December: CME FedWatch about 74.3% (via AP) vs about 89% from money markets (FXStreet); summary leads with CME.

Calendar: Vertiv Q3 moved to Wed Oct 28 before the open (company release Oct 14); old 2026-10-21-vrt-q3 removed. Added Amazon Q3 Oct 29 (call 08:00 AEDT Fri Oct 30), durable goods and new home sales Oct 27, BYD Seagull launch Oct 20, RBA SMP 14:30 AEDT Tue Nov 3. Leading index Oct 22 confirmed. Flash PMI and UMich dates found only on an excluded aggregator; left as they were.

Dropped: duplicate market wraps (BNN/AP, Barchart, ABC, WTOP), 247wallst, the Insight on Nvidia newsletter (Germany partnership via Reuters/Handelsblatt, not opened directly), the Treasury data page, and a Spotify item sourced to a Q2 article. Removed an FTC-subpoena line from the OpenAI reason because only a CBS tag page was seen; an unconfirmed 'IPO filing as soon as this week' caption was also not used.

Not found: Robinhood September metrics (403), Teradyne/Cloudflare Q3 dates, BYD weekly registrations and Q3 date, Netflix/Meta dated previews, TSMC post-call target changes, Stripe or OpenAI round news. Micron Taichung mediation Oct 22 is from a search snippet only.

Nothing here is financial advice. Holdings and opinions are my own; the "agent" sections are written by an automated research skill and may be wrong. Built 2026-10-17 13:56 UTC.