# Research run 2026-10-18T00:05 UTC ## What changed - Weekend: Iran says two tankers hit Hormuz mines (unverified); Brent closed Friday at $109.86, its highest since May. - FT: Anthropic is offering Blackstone a coupon above 10% on $9B of its TPU lease debt. - Blackwell rents hit new highs: B200 $6.12/hr, B300 above $7, even as CoreWeave fell 25% on the week. - No material weekend news for any holding; all takes unchanged. - Watchlist cut to 15: Tesla and BYD dropped. - Next: China Q3 GDP Mon 13:00 AEDT (4.4% poll); Netflix Wed 07:00; Meta and Tesla Thu morning AEDT. ## Market summary Rates are the main weight: the 10-year ended the week near 5.10%, futures price about an 85% chance of a hold on Oct 28 but roughly 89% odds of a December hike, and the Fed is in blackout until the decision. The Nasdaq fell 4.5% for its worst week since June and the Philadelphia semiconductor index has dropped eight sessions straight, its longest run since October 2008, as investors question debt-funded AI capex (CoreWeave -25% on the week, CDS near 1,117bp). Brent closed Friday at $109.86, its highest since May, and on Saturday Iran's Guards said two loaded tankers hit mines in Hormuz (unconfirmed), so energy stays bid and inflation risk keeps pressure on long yields. China's Q3 GDP is expected at about 4.4%, below the 4.5-5% target, with BofA and others pointing to more stimulus. Next (AEDT): China GDP and activity data Mon 13:00; Netflix Wed 07:01; Meta, Tesla, Lam, IBM Thu 07:30-08:30; SK hynix Wed Oct 28 11:00; FOMC Thu Oct 29 05:00; Alphabet and Microsoft Thu Oct 29 07:30-08:30; Amazon Fri Oct 30 08:00. ## Holdings - AMZN: hold - No material weekend news. AI credit worries remain the backdrop after a weak tech week. - AXOS: hold - No weekend news found. Nothing changes the take. - BABA: hold - No new weekend news. Analysts still expect AI cloud revenue to grow more than 50% in the September quarter. - ENPH: watch - No weekend news found. Stays on watch. - FIGR: hold - No weekend news found. Nothing changes the take. - GOOGL: add - No material weekend news. The Gemini rollout from Oct 16 still supports adding on weakness. - LDI: trim - No weekend news. Mortgage rates near three-year highs and talk of another Fed hike keep the trim take. - META: hold - No weekend news. Q3 results are due after the US close Wed Oct 21, around 07:00 AEDT Thu Oct 22. - MRVL: hold - No weekend news found. Trades with the chip group, which has been weak. - MU: watch - No new strike news over the weekend. The Taoyuan union rallies in Taipei on Mon Oct 19 and says it is not a strike. Taichung mediation is set for Thu Oct 22. - NFLX: hold - No weekend news. Q3 results are due around 07:00 AEDT Wed Oct 21, after the US close on Tue Oct 20. - NVDA: hold - No company news over the weekend. CoreWeave's 24% weekly fall and distressed bond yields keep AI credit risk in focus. - OPENAI: hold - No new round has closed. The reported $30B raise at a $1.4T pre-money valuation is still in early talks, so the mark stays at $852B. - RKT: watch - No weekend news. Mortgage rates near three-year highs still weigh on volumes. - STRIPE: hold - No new tender or round reported. The mark stays at the $159B February tender. - TSM: add - No new weekend news after the strong Q3. The next data point is October revenue on Tue Nov 10. ## Watchlist changes - removed TSLA:US - Lowest conviction in Machinery and the thesis is not working. Q2 adjusted EPS missed by 34%, auto gross margin ex-credits fell to 16.3%, operating margin was 1.4%, Q3 deliveries were down 2.1% YoY, and the trailing P/E is about 333. Robotaxi and the Roadster (production 2028) are years from earnings. Q3 results are due Oct 21; re-add only if margins turn. - removed 1211:HK - Watch at medium conviction, and it overlaps the loves list, which already tracks BYD news. The shares closed Fri at HK$73.75, near the 52-week low of HK$71.40 (high HK$113.40), as export growth makes up for a weak home market. Q3 results on about Oct 29-30 will show whether that holds. Not worth a slot under the 15 cap. ## Watchlist - ALAB:US Astera Labs - watch (medium) - Astera Labs sells PCIe, CXL and Ethernet connectivity silicon for AI racks; Q2 revenue was $392M (+105% y/y) and Q3 guidance is EPS $1.16-1.21 on consensus revenue of about $551M. Friday Oct 16 it fell 5.35% to $285.82 (low $282.79) as the Nasdaq fell 2.1% on AI-debt worries and CoreWeave dropped nearly 12%; no company news found. It lost 16.5% on the week and is 25.2% below the Oct 7 close of $382.25. TSMC's Oct 15 call still backs demand: AI accelerator growth 'probably will be higher' than the mid-to-high-50s% 2024-29 guide and 2026-28 capex 'significantly higher' than the prior three years. Consensus target $391.77 (26 analysts, Buy), 37% upside. - AVGO:US Broadcom - accumulate (medium) - Broadcom supplies custom AI accelerators (Google, Meta, OpenAI's Jalapeno) plus Ethernet networking and VMware software. The WSJ reported Oct 7 that it is lining up $50B+ of financing so OpenAI can buy its chips. Friday Oct 16 it fell 4.52% to $328.75, closing at the day's low, in a chip selloff CBS tied to worries about debt-funded AI build-outs and Anthropic's slowing growth; down 9.1% on the week. No Broadcom-specific news found. TSMC's Oct 15 call supports custom-silicon volume (accelerator growth 'probably will be higher' than guided; 5x-reticle CoWoS in production, 9x and 14x in development). Consensus target $531.31 (50 analysts, Strong Buy), 62% upside. - CLS:US Celestica - watch (medium) - Celestica designs and builds 800G/1.6T networking switches, servers and storage for hyperscalers. Q2 2026 revenue was $4.70B (+62% y/y); it guided Q3 to $5.25-5.55B revenue and adjusted EPS $2.88-3.08, and raised 2026 to $20.5B revenue (+65%) and $11.30 adjusted EPS (+87%). Friday Oct 16 it fell 3.63% to $303.81, a third straight decline, and lost 16.1% on the week; no company news found. Q3 results are confirmed for Mon Oct 26 after close, with the call and an Investor and Analyst Day on Tue Oct 27. Mean target $473.91 (22 analysts, Strong Buy) implies 56% upside; the lowest target ($375) is 23% above the price. - CRDO:US Credo Technology - watch (medium) - Credo sells active electrical cables, optical DSPs and PCIe/Ethernet retimers that connect GPUs and switches inside AI data centres. Fiscal Q1 2027 (to Aug 1) revenue was $479M, up 115% year on year, gross margin 64.5%, net income $129M; consensus has FY27 revenue +87% to about $2.5B. Friday Oct 16 it fell 4.93% to $169.70, a sixth straight decline, and lost 21.6% on the week, the worst of the watchlist; no company news found. Mean target $279.09 (20 analysts, Strong Buy) implies 64% upside; the price is now 8% below the lowest target ($185). - SKHY:US SK hynix ADR - buy (high) - SK hynix is the leading HBM supplier to Nvidia and the number-two DRAM maker; the Nasdaq ADR listed in July. Seoul steadied Friday Oct 16 (1,272,000 won, +0.79%), but the ADR fell 6.58% to $136.49 in the US session as chip stocks sold off on AI-debt worries (Micron -5.6%, per CBS); the ADR lost 19.3% on the week and is 30.1% below the Oct 2 close of $195.13. The ADR trades after Seoul, so Friday's drop points to a weak Seoul open on Monday. TSMC's Oct 15 call said AI demand shows 'no sign of slowdown'. Consensus target $252.21 (15 analysts, Strong Buy), 85% upside. Status and conviction unchanged: the falls are market-wide and about China competition, rates and AI financing; no change to HBM orders or guidance has been reported. - BE:US Bloom Energy - watch (medium) - Bloom Energy makes solid-oxide fuel cells for onsite data-centre power; Q2 revenue was a record $1.07B and FY26 guidance is $3.9-4.2B, anchored by Oracle (up to 2.8 GW) and Brookfield ($25B). Friday Oct 16 it fell 6.34% to $221.31 (low $219.17) and lost 21.1% on the week, with no company news found. Bloom confirmed on Oct 12 that Q3 results come Oct 22 after the US close. Consensus target $284.74 (29 analysts, Buy) is 29% above the price; UBS $350, Bernstein Hold $282. - GEV:US GE Vernova - accumulate (high) - GE Vernova builds gas turbines, grid equipment and wind for the power build-out; Q2 revenue was $11.1B (+22% y/y) with gas capacity largely contracted through 2030. Friday Oct 16 it slipped 0.57% to $921.20 after trading as high as $951.00, the steadiest AI-power name on a day the S&P 500 fell 1.1%; down 8.3% on the week. No company news found. JPMorgan cut its target to $1,150 from $1,330 on Oct 9, keeping Overweight. Consensus target $1,225 (37 analysts, Buy), 33% upside. - VRT:US Vertiv - accumulate (medium) - Vertiv sells power, thermal and liquid-cooling gear for data centres; Q2 sales were $3.27B (+24%) and it guided Q3 to $3.65-3.85B and EPS $1.77-1.83, lifting FY26 EPS to $6.65-6.75. Friday Oct 16 it fell 3.88% to $206.42, a seventh straight decline, and lost 15.0% on the week; no company news found. Vertiv announced on Oct 14 that Q3 results come Wed Oct 28 before the US open, with the call at 11am ET. Consensus target $337.43 (30 analysts, Strong Buy), 63% upside. - HOOD:US Robinhood - accumulate (medium) - Robinhood is a retail brokerage adding prediction markets, perpetual futures, earnings contracts and Robinhood Agents (announced Sep 29); Q2 revenue was $1.31B (+32%), net income $561M. August data (released Sep 10): 28.6M funded customers, $384B platform assets (+8% m/m), $4.0B net deposits, equity volume $335B (+68% y/y). Friday Oct 16 it fell 4.92% to $98.87, giving back Thursday's 2.88% gain, and lost 9.3% on the week; no company news found. September operating data still not found as of 18:00 AEDT Oct 17 (IR site blocked to fetch; searches return only August). Consensus target $134.68 (30 analysts, Buy), 36% upside; Morgan Stanley $160 (Oct 9). - MELI:US MercadoLibre - accumulate (medium) - MercadoLibre runs Latin America's largest marketplace, logistics network and the Mercado Pago fintech; Q2 net revenue was $10.2B (+50% y/y), GMV $21.9B (+44%), TPV $101B (+56%), with operating income down 17% to $683M. The stock is riding Brazil's election: Flavio Bolsonaro leads Lula 52-48 in valid votes in Datafolha (Oct 8) and 52.8-47.2 in AtlasIntel/Bloomberg (Oct 9). Friday Oct 16 it fell 1.24% to $1,834.00, down only 3.0% on a week when the Nasdaq lost more than 4%; no company news found. Consensus target $2,276 (26 analysts, Buy), 24% upside. - NET:US Cloudflare - accumulate (high) - Cloudflare runs a global edge network selling security, CDN, zero-trust and the Workers developer platform; trailing revenue is $2.51B, up 33.5%. Friday Oct 16 it fell 6.33% to $296.30 (low $291.15), a fifth straight decline, and lost 17.9% on the week; no company news found. It opened at $319.00 and sold off with the Nasdaq (-2.1%). The mean target of $341 (34 analysts, Buy) is now 15% above the price; BTIG $413 and Oppenheimer $430 imply 39-45%. Q3 date still not announced (last year's notice came Oct 9 for an Oct 30 report). - SE:US Sea Limited - accumulate (medium) - Sea runs Shopee (e-commerce), SeaMoney (digital finance) and Garena (games) across Southeast Asia and Brazil; trailing revenue is $27.7B, up 43.1%. Friday Oct 16 it opened at $99.34 and touched $100.00, then fell 3.83% to $93.77 with the market; down 1.6% on the week, the smallest loss on the watchlist. No company news found. Forward PE is 22 against 40%+ revenue growth, market cap $58B. Mean target $154.93 (29 analysts, Strong Buy) implies 65% upside; DBS Hold $105 and Arete Buy $152 bracket the range. - 6861:JP Keyence - buy (high) - Keyence sells machine-vision, sensors and measurement gear direct to factories with industry-leading margins and no debt; trailing revenue is JPY 1.25T, up 16.9%. Friday Oct 16 it closed at JPY 80,760 (+2.27%, about US$511 at 157.99 JPY/USD), recovering all of Thursday's 1.69% fall; no company news found. Tokyo closed before Friday's US chip selloff, so Monday's open will reflect it. TSMC's Oct 15 call (N2 capacity to more than double in 2027, 3nm additions in Taiwan, Arizona and Japan) points to continued fab and electronics-assembly spending, a core Keyence end market. Mean target of JPY 97,867 (15 analysts, Strong Buy) implies 21% upside. Fiscal Q2 results listed for Oct 29 (StockAnalysis; treat as TBC). - ASML:US ASML Holding - buy (high) - ASML is the only supplier of EUV lithography tools for leading-edge chips. Q3 2026 (Oct 14): net sales EUR 11.66B (record; a touch under the EUR 11.72B consensus), gross margin 57.5%, net income EUR 4.96B; Q4 guide EUR 14.2-15.2B at about 57%, lifting 2026 to EUR 44-45B, and the CEO said 2027-28 supply 'will not fully meet the demand of our customers'. Friday Oct 16 Amsterdam rose 0.89% to EUR 1,477.20 before the US selloff, while the ADR slipped 0.96% to $1,641.52, holding up far better than US chip names (Broadcom -4.5%, AMD -6%); both lines fell 7.8% on the week. TSMC said Oct 15 that 2026-28 capex will be 'significantly higher' than the prior three years and 'tool price inflation is real'. Mean target $2,099 (42 analysts, Strong Buy), 28% upside. Status kept at buy/high. - TER:US Teradyne - watch (medium) - Teradyne makes automated test equipment for AI accelerators, HBM memory and mobile chips, plus a robotics arm (Universal Robots, MiR); trailing revenue is $4.46B, up 57.9%; Q3 guidance is revenue $1.20-1.30B. Friday Oct 16 it fell 5.31% to $325.00, closing near the $324.09 low; it has fallen nine of the last ten sessions, lost 19.3% on the week and is 27.6% below the Oct 2 close of $449.04. No company news found. TSMC's Oct 15 call is supportive on volume: N2 capacity to more than double in 2027 and AI accelerator growth 'probably will be higher' than guided; each new node and larger package adds test time. Mean target $446.47 (17 analysts, Buy) implies 37% upside; Baird's $420 Neutral is 29% above the price. ## Bellwether changes - h100_rental: Silicon Data SDH100RT $2.83/hr as of Oct 16, up 2c and +6.8% 7d, 2c under the $2.85 high. H200 $3.45 (+4.5% 7d), up 8c; A100 $1.52 (+3.8%); MI300X $2.64 (0.0%). CME H100/B200 futures: no listing news found./bullish -> Silicon Data SDH100RT $2.82/hr as of Oct 17, down 1c on the day, +6.4% 7d, 3c under the $2.85 high. H200 $3.51 (+6.0% 7d), up 6c; A100 $1.53 (+3.2%); MI300X $2.64 (0.0%). CME H100/B200 futures: no listing news found./bullish - b200_rental: Silicon Data B200 $6.01 as of Oct 16 (+5.3% 7d), flat on Oct 15's high; B300 $6.96, up 19c. B200/H100 ratio 2.12x (6.01/2.83), down from 2.14x as H100 rose. Both above the $4.50 and 2x triggers./bullish -> Silicon Data B200 $6.12 as of Oct 17 (+7.0% 7d), up 11c to a new high; B300 $7.01, up 5c. B200/H100 ratio 2.17x (6.12/2.82), up from 2.12x. Both above the $4.50 and 2x triggers./bullish - hopper_residual: A100 index $1.52 Oct 16 (+3.8% 7d; trigger $1.50), unchanged for a third day, two cents above the floor. H200 $3.45, up 8c. Silicon Data residual study (Jan 30 data): used H100 ~65-75% of new at 2 yrs, 45-55% at 3 yrs; low end $12-16K. No new impairments Oct 16-17./bullish -> A100 index $1.53 Oct 17 (+3.2% 7d; trigger $1.50), up 1c, three cents above the floor. H200 $3.51, up 6c. Silicon Data residual study (Jan 30 data): used H100 ~65-75% of new at 2 yrs, 45-55% at 3 yrs; low end $12-16K. No new impairments found./bullish - dc_cost_per_gw: 10-yr Treasury par yield 5.09% on Oct 16 (Treasury), down 1bp, a new low for the month and 22bp under the Oct 5 high; 2-yr 4.74%, down 3bp. No new campus $/GW prints (last: Vera Rubin ~$47B/GW, gas ~$60B/GW, Jupiter ~$67B/GW)./neutral -> 10-yr Treasury par yield 5.09% on Oct 16 (Treasury, final), down 1bp, a new low for the month and 22bp under the Oct 5 high; 2-yr 4.74%, down 3bp. No new campus $/GW prints (last: Vera Rubin ~$47B/GW, gas ~$60B/GW, Jupiter ~$67B/GW)./neutral - power_bottleneck: FERC (Oct 9 order) rejected PJM's interim large-load service, which let data centres connect without new capacity if curtailable, and its bring-your-own-capacity rules; approved the large-load definition and registry. ERCOT 474 GW large-load queue; TCEQ freeze since Sep 21, report Oct 19; TWDB report due Oct 14 not yet found./bullish -> FERC (Oct 9 order) rejected PJM's interim large-load service, which let data centres connect without new capacity if curtailable, and its bring-your-own-capacity rules; approved the large-load definition and registry. ERCOT 474 GW large-load queue; TCEQ freeze since Sep 21, report due Oct 19 (not yet public); TWDB report due Oct 14 not yet found./bullish - neocloud_credit: CoreWeave fell more than 11% Friday, nearly 25% on the week; its Oct 2031 bond briefly yielded over 16% Thursday and lost about 3c this week, a fifth weekly fall (Reuters). CDS above 1,000bp, a record. 2032 notes: no recovery above 85c found. Nebius -12%, Applied Digital and IREN -11% Friday (quotes)./bearish -> CoreWeave fell more than 11% Friday, nearly 25% on the week; its Oct 2031 bond briefly yielded over 16% Thursday and lost about 3c this week, a fifth weekly fall (Reuters). 5-yr CDS record intraday 1,194.5bp (ICE). 2032 notes below 78c (Bloomberg via Korea Herald). Nebius -12%, Applied Digital and IREN -11% Friday./bearish - nvidia_dc: NVDA -1.4% Friday, -6.6% on the week (after -1.84% Thu). Huang in Berlin: AI selloff 'going to pass'. Germany industrial-AI partnership, several hundred million euros, expected next week (Reuters/Handelsblatt). DC rev $89.0B (+117%), GM 75.0%, Q3 guide $108B./bullish -> NVDA -1.4% Friday, -6.6% on the week. Huang in Berlin: AI selloff 'going to pass'. GTC Berlin Oct 20-22, Huang keynote Oct 21 (Tempodrom). German industrial-AI partnership expected next week (Reuters/Handelsblatt). DC rev $89.0B (+117%), GM 75.0%, Q3 guide $108B./bullish ## Calendar changes - added 2026-10-17 MACRO Iran's Guards say two oil tankers caught fire after hitting mines in Hormuz (unverified) - 2026-10-27-ter-q3: 2026-10-27 TBC (estimated date) -> 2026-10-27 Results 16:30 ET or later Tue (07:30 AEDT Wed Oct 28); call 08:30 ET Wed Oct 28 (23:30 AEDT Wed) - 2026-10-28-skhy-q3: 2026-10-28 TBC (likely morning KST = Tue Oct 27 evening ET) -> 2026-10-28 Call 09:00 KST Wed (11:00 AEDT Wed Oct 28; 20:00 ET Tue Oct 27) - added 2026-10-29 005930 Samsung Electronics full Q3 2026 results and call - added 2026-10-29 RKT Rocket Companies Q3 2026 results (date not confirmed) - removed 2026-10-29-net-q3 - added 2026-10-30 MACRO US Employment Cost Index, Q3 2026 (BLS) - added 2026-11-02 MACRO ISM manufacturing PMI, October - added 2026-11-03 MACRO US job openings (JOLTS), September - added 2026-11-03 AMD AMD Q3 2026 results and call (guide about $13B revenue) - added 2026-11-05 NET Cloudflare Q3 2026 results and call (confirmed Oct 13) - added 2026-11-06 MACRO US jobs report (Employment Situation), October ## New news (3) - 2026-10-17 [negative] NVDA: CoreWeave ends week down 24% on debt fears - CoreWeave, which rents out Nvidia GPU capacity, fell about 24% for the week. Some of its bond yields neared 15% and its credit default swaps spiked. Evercore ISI and JPMorgan still rate it a buy, citing a backlog of more than $100B. <https://www.tipranks.com/news/weekend-updates/coreweaves-ai-dream-collides-with-mounting-debt-fears> - 2026-10-17 [neutral] ANTHROPIC: FT: Anthropic offers Blackstone a coupon above 10% on a $9B slice of $60B TPU debt - Broadcom-arranged $60B package: $42B senior bank loan plus an $18B junior tranche, half of which ($9B) Blackstone funds would take. Coupon above 10% vs about 7% for similar-rated public bonds. It funds part of a $125.2B five-year Google TPU lease, 3.5 GW from 2027. The prospectus flags Broadcom's dual role as supplier and lender, and says some defaults could accelerate lease obligations. <https://aiweekly.co/alerts/anthropic-offers-blackstone-10-yield-in-9b-chip-debt-deal> - 2026-10-17 [positive] AAPL: iPhone Duo US delivery dates slip to late January within 30 minutes of pre-orders - Pre-orders opened Fri Oct 16; US estimates reached late January 2027, about three months out, ahead of the Oct 23 in-store launch. Same recap: HomePod mini 2 ($149) ships Oct 30, Apple TV 4K and HomeView ($299 each) ship Nov 13, and Bloomberg reports a media event on Oct 28 for OLED touchscreen MacBook Pros and M6 Macs. <https://www.macrumors.com/2026/10/17/top-stories-apple-homeview-intro/> ## Notes Weekend run (Sat Oct 17 US). No new US close; prices are Friday closes. Holdings: no material Oct 17-18 news found; Bloomberg CoreWeave credit piece paywalled, TipRanks used. Anthropic debt item via aiweekly summary of paywalled FT. Calendar: NET moved to Nov 5; RKT date unconfirmed (TBC); FIGR (~Nov 12-13) and LDI (Nov 3-10) not yet dated. BE consensus EPS in calendar may be stale ($0.14 vs $0.56 on StockTitan). B300 7d change inconsistent across Silicon Data pages.
Nothing here is financial advice. Holdings and opinions are my own; the "agent" sections are written by an automated research skill and may be wrong. Built 2026-10-18 13:39 UTC.