# Research run 2026-10-18T13:55 UTC ## What changed - Quiet weekend: no company news for any holding; all takes unchanged. - Iran's Guards say two tankers hit Hormuz mines; still unconfirmed by the US, UKMTO or owners. - JPMorgan: big cloud firms now spend about 93% of operating cash flow on AI, up from 33% in 2023. - Next: China Q3 GDP 13:00 AEDT today (4.4% poll); Netflix Wed 07:00; Meta and Tesla Thu morning AEDT. ## Market summary Monday opens with no material weekend company news for the holdings; the backdrop is unchanged from Friday's risk-off close. The 10-year sits near 5.09-5.10%, markets price about 85% for an Oct 28 hold and about 89% for a Dec hike, and AI-credit worries persist as hyperscalers spend about 93% of operating cash flow on AI. Semis carry an 8-day SOX losing streak after a 4.5% Nasdaq weekly drop. Iran's Guards claimed Saturday that two tankers hit mines in Hormuz, unconfirmed by Sunday, keeping oil near Friday's $110 Brent risk alive. Next (AEDT): China Q3 GDP Mon 13:00 (poll 4.4%); Netflix Wed 07:00; Meta, Tesla, Lam, IBM Thu 07:30-08:30; SK hynix Wed Oct 28 11:00; FOMC Thu Oct 29 05:00; Alphabet/Microsoft Thu Oct 29; Amazon Fri Oct 30. ## Holdings - AMZN: hold - No new company news over the weekend. Q3 results Fri Oct 30 AEDT. - AXOS: hold - No new company news over the weekend. Next: fiscal Q1 results due late Oct. - BABA: hold - No new company news over the weekend. China Q3 GDP Mon 13:00 AEDT sets the tone. - ENPH: watch - No new company news over the weekend. Q3 results due late Oct. - FIGR: hold - No new company news over the weekend. Q3 results due early Nov. - GOOGL: add - No new company news over the weekend. Cloud grew 82% last quarter; Q3 results Thu Oct 29 AEDT. - LDI: trim - No new company news over the weekend. Yields near 5.1% keep mortgage volumes under pressure. - META: hold - No new company news over the weekend. Q3 call 07:30 AEDT Thu Oct 22, where capex guidance is the test. Hold. - MRVL: hold - No new company news over the weekend. Semis on an 8-day losing streak; SK hynix Wed Oct 28 11:00 AEDT is the next read. - MU: watch - No new company news over the weekend. SK hynix results Wed Oct 28 11:00 AEDT are the next memory read. - NFLX: hold - No new company news over the weekend. Q3 results Wed Oct 21 07:00 AEDT; consensus EPS growth about 39%. - NVDA: hold - No new company news over the weekend. Hyperscaler results Oct 29-30 AEDT are the next capex check. - OPENAI: hold - No new round, tender or secondary mark reported over the weekend; the roughly $30B raise at about $1.4T pre-money has not closed, so the mark stays 5.43. Hold. - RKT: watch - No new company news over the weekend. Rate-hike odds near 89% for Dec weigh on mortgage volumes. - STRIPE: hold - No new round or tender reported over the weekend. - TSM: add - No new company news over the weekend. Q3 already reported; next monthly sales early Nov. ## Watchlist - ALAB:US Astera Labs - watch (medium) - Astera Labs sells PCIe, CXL and Ethernet connectivity silicon for AI racks; Q2 revenue was $392M (+105% y/y) and Q3 guidance is EPS $1.16-1.21 on consensus revenue of about $551M. Friday Oct 16 it fell 5.35% to $285.82 (low $282.79) as the Nasdaq fell 2.1% on AI-debt worries and CoreWeave dropped nearly 12%; no company news found. It lost 16.5% on the week and is 25.2% below the Oct 7 close of $382.25. TSMC's Oct 15 call still backs demand: AI accelerator growth 'probably will be higher' than the mid-to-high-50s% 2024-29 guide and 2026-28 capex 'significantly higher' than the prior three years. Consensus target $391.77 (26 analysts, Buy), 37% upside. - AVGO:US Broadcom - accumulate (medium) - Broadcom supplies custom AI accelerators (Google, Meta, OpenAI's Jalapeno) plus Ethernet networking and VMware software. The WSJ reported Oct 7 that it is lining up $50B+ of financing so OpenAI can buy its chips. Friday Oct 16 it fell 4.52% to $328.75, closing at the day's low, in a chip selloff CBS tied to worries about debt-funded AI build-outs and Anthropic's slowing growth; down 9.1% on the week. No Broadcom-specific news found. TSMC's Oct 15 call supports custom-silicon volume (accelerator growth 'probably will be higher' than guided; 5x-reticle CoWoS in production, 9x and 14x in development). Consensus target $531.31 (50 analysts, Strong Buy), 62% upside. - CLS:US Celestica - watch (medium) - Celestica designs and builds 800G/1.6T networking switches, servers and storage for hyperscalers. Q2 2026 revenue was $4.70B (+62% y/y); it guided Q3 to $5.25-5.55B revenue and adjusted EPS $2.88-3.08, and raised 2026 to $20.5B revenue (+65%) and $11.30 adjusted EPS (+87%). Friday Oct 16 it fell 3.63% to $303.81, a third straight decline, and lost 16.1% on the week; no company news found. Q3 results are confirmed for Mon Oct 26 after close, with the call and an Investor and Analyst Day on Tue Oct 27. Mean target $473.91 (22 analysts, Strong Buy) implies 56% upside; the lowest target ($375) is 23% above the price. - CRDO:US Credo Technology - watch (medium) - Credo sells active electrical cables, optical DSPs and PCIe/Ethernet retimers that connect GPUs and switches inside AI data centres. Fiscal Q1 2027 (to Aug 1) revenue was $479M, up 115% year on year, gross margin 64.5%, net income $129M; consensus has FY27 revenue +87% to about $2.5B. Friday Oct 16 it fell 4.93% to $169.70, a sixth straight decline, and lost 21.6% on the week, the worst of the watchlist; no company news found. Mean target $279.09 (20 analysts, Strong Buy) implies 64% upside; the price is now 8% below the lowest target ($185). - SKHY:US SK hynix ADR - buy (high) - SK hynix is the leading HBM supplier to Nvidia and the number-two DRAM maker; the Nasdaq ADR listed in July. Seoul steadied Friday Oct 16 (1,272,000 won, +0.79%), but the ADR fell 6.58% to $136.49 in the US session as chip stocks sold off on AI-debt worries (Micron -5.6%, per CBS); the ADR lost 19.3% on the week and is 30.1% below the Oct 2 close of $195.13. The ADR trades after Seoul, so Friday's drop points to a weak Seoul open on Monday. TSMC's Oct 15 call said AI demand shows 'no sign of slowdown'. Consensus target $252.21 (15 analysts, Strong Buy), 85% upside. Status and conviction unchanged: the falls are market-wide and about China competition, rates and AI financing; no change to HBM orders or guidance has been reported. - BE:US Bloom Energy - watch (medium) - Bloom Energy makes solid-oxide fuel cells for onsite data-centre power; Q2 revenue was a record $1.07B and FY26 guidance is $3.9-4.2B, anchored by Oracle (up to 2.8 GW) and Brookfield ($25B). Friday Oct 16 it fell 6.34% to $221.31 (low $219.17) and lost 21.1% on the week, with no company news found. Bloom confirmed on Oct 12 that Q3 results come Oct 22 after the US close. Consensus target $284.74 (29 analysts, Buy) is 29% above the price; UBS $350, Bernstein Hold $282. - GEV:US GE Vernova - accumulate (high) - GE Vernova builds gas turbines, grid equipment and wind for the power build-out; Q2 revenue was $11.1B (+22% y/y) with gas capacity largely contracted through 2030. Friday Oct 16 it slipped 0.57% to $921.20 after trading as high as $951.00, the steadiest AI-power name on a day the S&P 500 fell 1.1%; down 8.3% on the week. No company news found. JPMorgan cut its target to $1,150 from $1,330 on Oct 9, keeping Overweight. Consensus target $1,225 (37 analysts, Buy), 33% upside. - VRT:US Vertiv - accumulate (medium) - Vertiv sells power, thermal and liquid-cooling gear for data centres; Q2 sales were $3.27B (+24%) and it guided Q3 to $3.65-3.85B and EPS $1.77-1.83, lifting FY26 EPS to $6.65-6.75. Friday Oct 16 it fell 3.88% to $206.42, a seventh straight decline, and lost 15.0% on the week; no company news found. Vertiv announced on Oct 14 that Q3 results come Wed Oct 28 before the US open, with the call at 11am ET. Consensus target $337.43 (30 analysts, Strong Buy), 63% upside. - HOOD:US Robinhood - accumulate (medium) - Robinhood is a retail brokerage adding prediction markets, perpetual futures, earnings contracts and Robinhood Agents (announced Sep 29); Q2 revenue was $1.31B (+32%), net income $561M. August data (released Sep 10): 28.6M funded customers, $384B platform assets (+8% m/m), $4.0B net deposits, equity volume $335B (+68% y/y). Friday Oct 16 it fell 4.92% to $98.87, giving back Thursday's 2.88% gain, and lost 9.3% on the week; no company news found. September operating data still not found as of 18:00 AEDT Oct 17 (IR site blocked to fetch; searches return only August). Consensus target $134.68 (30 analysts, Buy), 36% upside; Morgan Stanley $160 (Oct 9). - MELI:US MercadoLibre - accumulate (medium) - MercadoLibre runs Latin America's largest marketplace, logistics network and the Mercado Pago fintech; Q2 net revenue was $10.2B (+50% y/y), GMV $21.9B (+44%), TPV $101B (+56%), with operating income down 17% to $683M. The stock is riding Brazil's election: Flavio Bolsonaro leads Lula 52-48 in valid votes in Datafolha (Oct 8) and 52.8-47.2 in AtlasIntel/Bloomberg (Oct 9). Friday Oct 16 it fell 1.24% to $1,834.00, down only 3.0% on a week when the Nasdaq lost more than 4%; no company news found. Consensus target $2,276 (26 analysts, Buy), 24% upside. - NET:US Cloudflare - accumulate (high) - Cloudflare runs a global edge network selling security, CDN, zero-trust and the Workers developer platform; trailing revenue is $2.51B, up 33.5%. Friday Oct 16 it fell 6.33% to $296.30 (low $291.15), a fifth straight decline, and lost 17.9% on the week; no company news found. It opened at $319.00 and sold off with the Nasdaq (-2.1%). The mean target of $341 (34 analysts, Buy) is now 15% above the price; BTIG $413 and Oppenheimer $430 imply 39-45%. Q3 date still not announced (last year's notice came Oct 9 for an Oct 30 report). - SE:US Sea Limited - accumulate (medium) - Sea runs Shopee (e-commerce), SeaMoney (digital finance) and Garena (games) across Southeast Asia and Brazil; trailing revenue is $27.7B, up 43.1%. Friday Oct 16 it opened at $99.34 and touched $100.00, then fell 3.83% to $93.77 with the market; down 1.6% on the week, the smallest loss on the watchlist. No company news found. Forward PE is 22 against 40%+ revenue growth, market cap $58B. Mean target $154.93 (29 analysts, Strong Buy) implies 65% upside; DBS Hold $105 and Arete Buy $152 bracket the range. - 6861:JP Keyence - buy (high) - Keyence sells machine-vision, sensors and measurement gear direct to factories with industry-leading margins and no debt; trailing revenue is JPY 1.25T, up 16.9%. Friday Oct 16 it closed at JPY 80,760 (+2.27%, about US$511 at 157.99 JPY/USD), recovering all of Thursday's 1.69% fall; no company news found. Tokyo closed before Friday's US chip selloff, so Monday's open will reflect it. TSMC's Oct 15 call (N2 capacity to more than double in 2027, 3nm additions in Taiwan, Arizona and Japan) points to continued fab and electronics-assembly spending, a core Keyence end market. Mean target of JPY 97,867 (15 analysts, Strong Buy) implies 21% upside. Fiscal Q2 results listed for Oct 29 (StockAnalysis; treat as TBC). - ASML:US ASML Holding - buy (high) - ASML is the only supplier of EUV lithography tools for leading-edge chips. Q3 2026 (Oct 14): net sales EUR 11.66B (record; a touch under the EUR 11.72B consensus), gross margin 57.5%, net income EUR 4.96B; Q4 guide EUR 14.2-15.2B at about 57%, lifting 2026 to EUR 44-45B, and the CEO said 2027-28 supply 'will not fully meet the demand of our customers'. Friday Oct 16 Amsterdam rose 0.89% to EUR 1,477.20 before the US selloff, while the ADR slipped 0.96% to $1,641.52, holding up far better than US chip names (Broadcom -4.5%, AMD -6%); both lines fell 7.8% on the week. TSMC said Oct 15 that 2026-28 capex will be 'significantly higher' than the prior three years and 'tool price inflation is real'. Mean target $2,099 (42 analysts, Strong Buy), 28% upside. Status kept at buy/high. - TER:US Teradyne - watch (medium) - Teradyne makes automated test equipment for AI accelerators, HBM memory and mobile chips, plus a robotics arm (Universal Robots, MiR); trailing revenue is $4.46B, up 57.9%; Q3 guidance is revenue $1.20-1.30B. Friday Oct 16 it fell 5.31% to $325.00, closing near the $324.09 low; it has fallen nine of the last ten sessions, lost 19.3% on the week and is 27.6% below the Oct 2 close of $449.04. No company news found. TSMC's Oct 15 call is supportive on volume: N2 capacity to more than double in 2027 and AI accelerator growth 'probably will be higher' than guided; each new node and larger package adds test time. Mean target $446.47 (17 analysts, Buy) implies 37% upside; Baird's $420 Neutral is 29% above the price. ## New news (2) - 2026-10-17 [negative] MACRO: Iran Guards say two tankers hit mines in Hormuz; no independent confirmation - Reuters via IRNA: two tankers carrying about 2m barrels caught fire after hitting mines on an unauthorised route. No confirmation from the US, UKMTO or the owners as of Sunday. Attacks near the strait have risen over two weeks. <https://gcaptain.com/irans-guards-say-two-tankers-hit-mines-in-strait-of-hormuz/> - 2026-10-18 [neutral] MACRO: JPMorgan: big cloud firms spending about 93% of operating cash flow on AI - Weekend piece notes hyperscaler AI capex at about 93% of operating cash flow, up from 33% in 2023. Alphabet spent more cash than it took in last quarter, a first since its 2004 IPO. <https://www.fool.com/investing/breakfast-news/2026/10/18/breakfast-news/> ## Notes Sunday US / Monday 00:40 AEDT run. No market session since Fri Oct 16 close; prices are Friday closes. No company news for holdings, loves or watchlist. Indicators carried over (Silicon Data still Oct 17); TCEQ report due Oct 19 not yet checked; no calendar changes (RKT/LDI dates still unannounced, FIGR ~Nov 12). Rates/odds in summary carried from prior run, not re-verified.
Nothing here is financial advice. Holdings and opinions are my own; the "agent" sections are written by an automated research skill and may be wrong. Built 2026-10-18 13:39 UTC.