# Research run 2026-10-21T22:45 UTC ## What changed - Meta Q3 revenue up 26% to $64.6B, Q4 guide $73-76B; up 3-5% after hours despite a $9.9B legal charge. - Netflix down 8% since Oct 16 after cutting its 2026 ad forecast to $2.7B; take moved from hold to watch. - Chips snapped an 8-day losing streak; holdings bounced: Marvell up 7%, Amazon and TSMC up 5% since Oct 16. - H100 rent hit a record $2.86/hr while CoreWeave bonds hold near 80c: compute still bid, financing still stressed. - Sea cut to watch/low after a 17% three-day drop on its cloud push and possible fintech IPO. - Next: Bloom Fri 08:00 AEDT; FOMC Thu Oct 29 05:00 AEDT; Alphabet and Microsoft Thu Oct 29; Amazon Fri Oct 30. ## Market summary Stocks firmed into Wednesday: the S&P 500 rose 0.6% and the Nasdaq 1.1% on Oct 21 after chips snapped their 8-day losing streak on Oct 19 (SOX up about 2.7% that day). Tesla beat on EPS ($0.48 vs $0.44) and free cash flow ($1.5B vs an expected outflow) but slightly missed on revenue, and the stock was roughly flat to up 0.5% after hours; Lam Research fell 6% after hours despite a beat, while TXN guided Q4 above estimates and IBM rose about 3% late. The backdrop is still tight: the US 10-year is about 5.14%, Brent is near $109 after touching $112 on unverified Iranian claims that mines hit tankers in Hormuz, and futures price only about a 17% chance of a Fed hike this month but about 90% by December. Next: Spotify Q3 Thu night AEDT (before US open), FOMC decision Thu Oct 29 05:00 AEDT (meeting Oct 27-28), Alphabet and Microsoft Thu Oct 29 AEDT, BYD Q3 results Oct 29, Amazon Fri Oct 30 AEDT. ## Holdings - AMZN: hold - Up 5% since Oct 16 after Morgan Stanley made it a top pick on faster AWS growth. Q3 results Fri Oct 30 ~7am AEDT. - AXOS: hold - Up 2% since Oct 16 with no company news. Fiscal Q1 results Fri Oct 30 ~7am AEDT. - BABA: hold - Down 4% since Oct 16 as US-listed China tech sold off on Oct 21. China Q3 GDP grew 4.5%, a touch above forecasts, but consumer spending is still weak. - ENPH: watch - Up 4% since Oct 16 with no company news. Q3 results Wed Oct 28 ~7am AEDT are the next test. - FIGR: hold - Down 7% since Oct 16 with no company-specific news found. Thesis rests on marketplace volume, which doubled year on year in Q3. - GOOGL: add - Down 2% since Oct 16 as investors trimmed before results; KeyBanc cut its target to $410 but kept Overweight. Q3 results Thu Oct 29 ~7am AEDT. - LDI: trim - Down 1% since Oct 16 with no new news. A 10-year near 5.1% keeps mortgage volumes under pressure; Q3 results estimated Nov 5 US time. - META: hold - Q3 revenue $64.6B (+26%) beat and the Q4 guide of $73-76B is at or above consensus; shares rose 3-5% after hours. Free cash flow went negative on $34.9B quarterly capex and a $9.9B legal charge. - MRVL: hold - Up 7% since Oct 16 as chip stocks bounced, regaining part of the slide after its Oct 6 investor day. - MU: watch - Up 4% since Oct 16. Taichung union signed a deal, but the Taoyuan union planned a one-day strike on Oct 22 Taiwan time; watch for any hit to output. - NFLX: watch - Down 8% since Oct 16 after Q3: EPS beat, but the 2026 ad revenue forecast was cut to $2.7B from $3B and layoffs were announced. Moved from hold to watch until ads get back on track. - NVDA: hold - Up 4% since Oct 16. At GTC Berlin, Huang pitched Europe's AI buildout, a fast-deploy DSX POD data center design and nearly $10B committed to Europe. - OPENAI: hold - Reuters said Oct 19 that talks on a ~$30B raise at over $1.4T are ongoing; not closed, so the mark stays at the $852B March round. - RKT: watch - Up 3% since Oct 16 with no company news. Q3 results expected around Oct 29 US time. - STRIPE: hold - No new tender or round; the last mark is still the $159B tender from Feb 2026. - TSM: add - Up 5% since Oct 16 as AI chip names bounced. Demand from Nvidia, Meta and other hyperscalers still looks firm. ## Watchlist changes - SE:US accumulate/medium -> watch/low ## Watchlist - ALAB:US Astera Labs - watch (medium) - Astera Labs sells PCIe, CXL and Ethernet connectivity chips for AI racks; Q2 revenue was $392M (+105% y/y). It closed Oct 21 at $290.06, up 1.5% since Oct 16, after chips snapped an eight-day losing streak and Super Micro raised its forecast. Meta (Oct 21) narrowed 2026 capex to $135-145B and said it will keep 'investing aggressively' in 2027, which supports AI rack demand. - AVGO:US Broadcom - accumulate (medium) - Broadcom supplies custom AI accelerators (Google, Meta, OpenAI) plus Ethernet networking and VMware. It closed Oct 21 at $337.80, up 2.8% since Oct 16 as the chip selloff paused. Meta's Q3 capex of $34.9B (up from $31B in Q2) and a firmer 2026 range of $135-145B support custom-silicon volume. - CLS:US Celestica - watch (medium) - Celestica builds 800G/1.6T networking switches, servers and storage for hyperscalers; it guided Q3 to $5.25-5.55B revenue and 2026 to $20.5B (+65%). It closed Oct 21 at $304.61, flat since Oct 16, while server peers Super Micro (+9.6%, raised forecast) and Dell (+5.3%) rallied. Q3 and an investor day with 2027 targets come next week. - CRDO:US Credo Technology - watch (medium) - Credo sells active electrical cables, optical DSPs and retimers that connect GPUs and switches; fiscal Q1 2027 revenue was $479M (+115% y/y) at a 64.5% gross margin. It rose 6.28% on Oct 21 to $182.28 with networking names (Ciena +5.7%), ending a run of six straight declines and recovering 7.4% since Oct 16; no company news found. - SKHY:US SK hynix ADR - buy (high) - SK hynix is the leading HBM supplier to Nvidia and the number-two DRAM maker. The ADR closed Oct 21 at $143.25, up 5.0% since Oct 16 but still 27% below the Oct 2 close of $195.13. Lam's record quarter (Korea 20% of sales) and Meta's firmer capex range support memory demand; Q3 results on Oct 28 KST are the test. - BE:US Bloom Energy - watch (medium) - Bloom makes solid-oxide fuel cells for onsite data-centre power; Q2 revenue was a record $1.07B and FY26 guidance is $3.9-4.2B, backed by Oracle (up to 2.8 GW) and Brookfield ($25B). It rose 7.24% on Oct 21 to $238.53 with AI-power names (Vertiv +4.3%, GE Vernova +4.0%) ahead of tonight's Q3 report; no company news found. - GEV:US GE Vernova - accumulate (high) - GE Vernova builds gas turbines, grid equipment and wind for the power build-out; Q2 orders rose 88% y/y and backlog is $176B. It rose 4.03% on Oct 21 to $925.92 after BofA previewed Q3 order growth of about 44% y/y (Buy, $1,310 target), and it won a 9E turbine for a 372 MW plant in Cote d'Ivoire. - VRT:US Vertiv - accumulate (medium) - Vertiv sells power, thermal and liquid-cooling gear for data centres; it guided Q3 sales to $3.65-3.85B and lifted FY26 EPS to $6.65-6.75. It rose 4.26% on Oct 21 to $212.15, ending a losing run, as AI-infrastructure names rallied; no company news found. - HOOD:US Robinhood - accumulate (medium) - Robinhood is a retail brokerage adding prediction markets, perpetual futures and Robinhood Agents; Q2 revenue was $1.31B (+32%). Preliminary September data to Sep 24 showed about $267B equity volume, 234M options contracts and 4.4B event contracts; full September data comes with Q3. It closed Oct 21 at $101.93, up 3.1% since Oct 16. - MELI:US MercadoLibre - accumulate (medium) - MercadoLibre runs Latin America's largest marketplace, logistics network and Mercado Pago; Q2 net revenue was $10.2B (+50% y/y) while operating income fell 17%. It closed Oct 21 at $1,854.88, up 1.1% since Oct 16. Brazil's runoff has tightened: Quaest (Oct 21) has Flavio Bolsonaro 45%, Lula 44%, down from a 2-point lead, within a 2-point margin. - NET:US Cloudflare - accumulate (high) - Cloudflare runs a global edge network selling security, CDN, zero-trust and the Workers developer platform; Q2 revenue was $696M (+36%) and it guided Q3 to $736-737M. It rose 5.32% on Oct 21 to $307.22 as security stocks rallied on a critical PHP flaw. Q3 is confirmed for Nov 5, a week later than estimated. - SE:US Sea Limited - watch (low) - Sea runs Shopee, Monee (digital finance) and Garena across Southeast Asia and Brazil; Q2 revenue was $7.79B (+48%). On Oct 20 a CEO memo said Sea will sell AI cloud services to enterprises (Sea Cloud, against AWS and Alibaba Cloud) and is weighing an IPO of Monee. The stock fell 16.9% in three sessions to $77.94 on Oct 21, near its 52-week low of $77.05. Downgraded to watch/low until Q3 shows whether cloud spending eats Shopee's margin gains. - 6861:JP Keyence - buy (high) - Keyence sells machine-vision, sensors and measurement gear direct to factories with industry-leading margins and no debt. It closed Oct 21 at JPY 80,860 (about US$512 at 157.88), flat since Oct 16, steady through the US chip selloff. Lam's record quarter and guide above consensus point to continued fab spending, a core end market. - ASML:US ASML Holding - buy (high) - ASML is the only supplier of EUV lithography tools; Q3 sales were a record EUR 11.66B and it guided 2026 to EUR 44-45B, saying 2027-28 supply will not fully meet demand. Lam (Oct 21) beat with record revenue of $8.22B (+22% q/q) and guided Dec quarter to $8.60B, above consensus, confirming strong fab spending. The ADR closed Oct 21 at $1,676.69, up 2.1% since Oct 16. - TER:US Teradyne - watch (medium) - Teradyne makes test equipment for AI accelerators, HBM and mobile chips, plus Universal Robots; Q3 guidance is $1.20-1.30B revenue. It rebounded 6.3% since Oct 16 to $345.49 on Oct 21 as memory and chip-test names recovered (Advantest +5.3% in Tokyo). Lam's beat and Korea at 20% of its sales support memory test demand; Q3 date is now confirmed. ## Bellwether changes - h100_rental: Silicon Data SDH100RT $2.82/hr as of Oct 17, down 1c on the day, +6.4% 7d, 3c under the $2.85 high. H200 $3.51 (+6.0% 7d), up 6c; A100 $1.53 (+3.2%); MI300X $2.64 (0.0%). CME H100/B200 futures: no listing news found./bullish -> Silicon Data SDH100RT $2.86/hr on Oct 21, a new high (+10.0% 7d), up 4c from $2.82 on Oct 17. H200 $3.47 (+5.5%), A100 $1.55 (+0.6%), MI300X $2.75 (+5.0%). CME H100/B200 futures: no listing news./bullish - b200_rental: Silicon Data B200 $6.12 as of Oct 17 (+7.0% 7d), up 11c to a new high; B300 $7.01, up 5c. B200/H100 ratio 2.17x (6.12/2.82), up from 2.12x. Both above the $4.50 and 2x triggers./bullish -> Silicon Data B200 $6.14 on Oct 21 (+6.6% 7d), a new high, up 2c; B300 $7.02 (+1.0% 7d), up 1c. B200/H100 ratio 2.15x (6.14/2.86), down from 2.17x as H100 rose faster. Both above the $4.50 and 2x triggers./bullish - hopper_residual: A100 index $1.53 Oct 17 (+3.2% 7d; trigger $1.50), up 1c, three cents above the floor. H200 $3.51, up 6c. Silicon Data residual study (Jan 30 data): used H100 ~65-75% of new at 2 yrs, 45-55% at 3 yrs; low end $12-16K. No new impairments found./bullish -> A100 index $1.55 Oct 21 (+0.6% 7d; trigger $1.50), up 2c, five cents above the floor. H200 $3.47. Silicon Data residual study (Jan 30 data): used H100 ~65-75% of new at 2 yrs, 45-55% at 3 yrs. Meta Q3 (Oct 21): no GPU useful-life change or impairment reported./bullish - dc_cost_per_gw: 10-yr Treasury par yield 5.09% on Oct 16 (Treasury, final), down 1bp, a new low for the month and 22bp under the Oct 5 high; 2-yr 4.74%, down 3bp. No new campus $/GW prints (last: Vera Rubin ~$47B/GW, gas ~$60B/GW, Jupiter ~$67B/GW)./neutral -> 10-yr Treasury par yield 5.13% on Oct 21, up 4bp from 5.09% Oct 16 (5.15% Oct 19); 2-yr 4.81%, up 7bp. Huang (GTC Berlin Oct 21): a 1 GW AI factory costs about $50B all-in; a 3-month delay costs ~$10B of revenue./neutral - memory_prices: TrendForce spot Oct 16: DDR5 16Gb $60.60 (+0.28%), a high; DDR4 16Gb $83.66 (flat); DDR4 8Gb $45.97 (flat). No new session since. Public contract table still 2H Aug; no Q4 DRAM or HBM contract figures found./bullish -> TrendForce spot Oct 21: DDR5 16Gb $60.87 (+0.28%), a new high; DDR4 16Gb $83.12 (-0.30%); DDR4 8Gb $46.79 (+0.93%). Public contract table still 2H Aug; Sep 30 update says contracts 'stable with expected growth momentum'./bullish - power_bottleneck: FERC (Oct 9 order) rejected PJM's interim large-load service, which let data centres connect without new capacity if curtailable, and its bring-your-own-capacity rules; approved the large-load definition and registry. ERCOT 474 GW large-load queue; TCEQ freeze since Sep 21, report due Oct 19 (not yet public); TWDB report due Oct 14 not yet found./bullish -> TCEQ told Abbott Oct 19 it has paused permits 'directly supporting data centers'; it suspended six stormwater permits Public Citizen flagged (Oct 20). ERCOT 474 GW large-load queue; ERCOT/PUCT audit due Dec 10. PJM refiling due by Oct 29 after FERC's Oct 9 rejection./bullish - capex_vs_backlog: TSMC call (Oct 15): 2026 capex kept at $60-64B; 2026 revenue growth raised to about 44% in USD; 2026-28 capex 'significantly higher' than the prior three years; AI-accelerator CAGR (mid-to-high 50s%, 2024-29) 'probably will be higher'; demand above supply, 'no sign of slowdown'. Q4 guide $52.3-54.3B./neutral -> Meta Q3 (Oct 21): capex $34.9B (vs $19.4B a year ago); 2026 guide narrowed to $135-145B; free cash flow -$2.1B, capex above operating cash flow; revenue $64.6B (+26%), Q4 guide $73-76B; no 2027 capex figure. Lam guided Dec-qtr revenue $8.6B +/- $0.4B./neutral - neocloud_credit: CoreWeave fell more than 11% Friday, nearly 25% on the week; its Oct 2031 bond briefly yielded over 16% Thursday and lost about 3c this week, a fifth weekly fall (Reuters). 5-yr CDS record intraday 1,194.5bp (ICE). 2032 notes below 78c (Bloomberg via Korea Herald). Nebius -12%, Applied Digital and IREN -11% Friday./bearish -> CoreWeave 9.75% Oct 2031 notes near 80.6c (yield ~15.6%) on Oct 20, vs ~11.3% in mid-August; stock at its lowest since May 2025. 5-yr CDS around 1,100bp Oct 19, below the 1,194.5bp record. Bonds steadied rather than rebounded./bearish - nvidia_dc: NVDA -1.4% Friday, -6.6% on the week. Huang in Berlin: AI selloff 'going to pass'. GTC Berlin Oct 20-22, Huang keynote Oct 21 (Tempodrom). German industrial-AI partnership expected next week (Reuters/Handelsblatt). DC rev $89.0B (+117%), GM 75.0%, Q3 guide $108B./bullish -> GTC Berlin keynote Oct 21: Vera Rubin 'in full production'; DSX POD (seven Rubin NVL72 racks, factory-built) early 2027; 1 GW AI factory ~$50B; token use 'through the roof'. Nearly $10B committed to Europe. Google Cloud: Rubin A5X GA next month, up to 960k Rubin GPUs. NVDA ~9% below its Oct 6 record./bullish ## Calendar changes - removed 2026-10-28-meta-msft-q3 - added 2026-10-28 MSFT Microsoft fiscal Q1 2027 results and webcast - 2026-10-29-keyence-q2: 2026-10-29 TBC (estimated date) -> 2026-10-29 After Tokyo close, time TBC (about 17:30 AEDT Thu; 02:30 ET) - 2026-11-04-meli-q3: 2026-11-04 TBC (provisional date on IR calendar) -> 2026-11-04 TBC (provisional on IR calendar; recent calls 17:00 ET = 09:00 AEDT Thu Nov 5) - added 2026-11-03 MACRO US midterm elections (House and Senate) - added 2026-11-04 MACRO ISM services PMI, October - added 2026-11-05 LDI loanDepot Q3 2026 results (date not confirmed) ## New news (28) - 2026-10-21 [positive] META: Meta Q3 revenue up 26% to $64.6B, Q4 guide $73-76B; shares up after hours - GAAP EPS was $3.83 after a $9.9B charge for the state attorneys general settlement ($7.40 excluding it). 2026 capex is now $135-145B (was $130-145B), with no 2027 figure given yet; shares rose 3-5% after hours. <https://fortune.com/2026/10/21/meta-q3-earnings-mark-zuckerberg-capex-muse/> - 2026-10-21 [neutral] META: Meta to issue non-voting Class C shares as a one-for-one stock dividend - Effective January 2027, each Class A and B share gets one Class C share, which works like a two-for-one split with no change to voting control. Q3 capex of $34.9B exceeded operating cash flow, and Meta expects Reality Labs losses near $15B next year. <https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001326801/000162828026066700/meta-09302026xexhibit991.htm> - 2026-10-20 [negative] NFLX: Netflix beats on Q3 EPS but cuts 2026 ad revenue forecast to $2.7B - Q3 revenue was $12.9B (+12%) and EPS $0.87 against $0.82 expected. 2026 revenue guidance is $51.1B, slightly below the prior midpoint, and Q4 margin guidance includes the cost of headcount cuts. <https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001065280/000106528026000290/ex991_q326.htm> - 2026-10-20 [negative] NFLX: Netflix falls about 6% after hours as ads lag and layoffs are announced - Management said the ads business is behind target because of delayed product rollouts, though ad revenue is still growing over 80%. Full 2027 guidance comes in January. <https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-netflix-beats-q3-2026-estimates-but-shares-fall-after-hours-93CH-4961240> - 2026-10-21 [positive] NVDA: Huang at GTC Berlin: every European company will become an AI company - Nvidia showed a factory-built DSX POD data center module on Vera Rubin that can be deployed in about two weeks, and said it has committed nearly $10B to Europe's tech ecosystem. Shares rose 2.5% on the day. <https://investing.com/news/stock-market-news/nvidias-huang-hails-europes-ai-potential-flanked-by-robot-ducks-4963697> - 2026-10-21 [neutral] MU: Micron signs labour deal with Taichung union; Taoyuan strike still planned - The Taichung union signed a collective agreement and cancelled the Oct 22 mediation. The Taoyuan union, which wants 15% of operating profit shared with staff, had not called off its one-day warning strike. <https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/stocks/us-stocks/262228767-micron-taichung-labor-agreement-taoyuan-strike-pending-mu-tradingkey> - 2026-10-20 [negative] MU: Micron Taoyuan union calls one-day solidarity strike for Oct 22 - The union represents about 2,400 of roughly 3,000 Taoyuan workers; it has not said how many will walk out, and no production impact has been reported. <https://focustaiwan.tw/business/202610200021> - 2026-10-19 [positive] AMZN: Amazon up 5% as Morgan Stanley names it a top pick - Morgan Stanley raised its target to $350 from $335 and sees AWS operating margins reaching 42% in 2027. Q3 results are due Oct 29 after the US close. <https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/10/19/amazon-jumps-5-as-morgan-stanley-names-it-top-pick-on-faster-aws-growth-microsoft-and-alphabet-edge-higher/> - 2026-10-21 [negative] GOOGL: Alphabet slips ahead of Oct 28 results; KeyBanc trims target - KeyBanc cut its target to $410 from $435 (still Overweight), and a London Google Cloud data center outage on Oct 20 disrupted UK banks. OpenAI models are coming to Google Cloud's Model Garden. <https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/why-is-alphabet-stock-sliding-today-93CH-4963511> - 2026-10-21 [negative] BABA: Alibaba falls about 4% as US-listed China tech sells off - No single trigger; coverage cites heavy AI capex weighing on free cash flow, weak Chinese consumer spending and chip export limits. <https://www.tradingkey.com/news/market-movers/262229210-market-movers-baba-20261021> - 2026-10-19 [neutral] OPENAI: OpenAI still in talks on ~$30B raise at over $1.4T - Reuters reported the talks are ongoing, so nothing has closed; the last closed round was $852B in March. <https://fool.com/investing/2026/10/20/openai-is-reportedly-raising-usd30-billion-which-chip-stock-gains-the-most> - 2026-10-21 [positive] TSLA: Tesla Q3: EPS and cash flow beat, revenue a hair light, stock flat to slightly up after hours - Adj. EPS $0.48 vs $0.44 expected, revenue $28.05B vs $28.13B, free cash flow +$1.53B vs an expected $4.9B outflow, and Q3 capex $4.7B. Full-year capex is guided above $25B for Optimus (now in production at Fremont), AI compute, Cybercab and Terafab; shares rose 3.4% in the session and about 0.5% after hours. <https://news.jkn.co.kr/editions/english/post/1041029> - 2026-10-20 [neutral] TSLA: Tesla and SpaceX boards form special committees to review a merger - On SpaceX's Q3 call, Musk said independent-director committees at both companies are evaluating a combination, with no terms agreed. Tesla would need approval from a majority of all outstanding shares, which Musk called a high hurdle. <https://techcrunch.com/2026/10/20/spacex-and-tesla-boards-form-special-committees-to-review-merger/> - 2026-10-20 [neutral] ANTHROPIC: Anthropic draft prospectus (per WSJ): Q3 revenue $16.8B, up 45% q/q; H1 net loss $80.7B - WSJ-reported figures from a leaked draft S-1 show H1 revenue of $16.3B, two customers at about a fifth of sales, and cloud spend that could top $750B. The loss is not broken down; a November IPO is reportedly still the target. <https://techcrunch.com/2026/10/20/anthropics-cloud-partnerships-are-getting-messy/> - 2026-10-21 [positive] ANTHROPIC: Anthropic launches Claude Duet, an always-on agent, as a research preview - Claude Duet runs on its own cloud computer, handling email, calendar and app tasks in the background, and asks before sending, paying or deleting anything. It is rolling out by waitlist to US Pro and Max subscribers at no extra cost. <https://9to5mac.com/2026/10/21/anthropic-takes-on-chatgpt-dots-and-meta-muse-with-claude-duet> - 2026-10-20 [positive] CURSOR: Cursor added $608M of revenue in its first 7 weeks inside SpaceX - SpaceX's Q3 report showed Cursor contributing $608M from its Aug 14 close to Sep 30, inside an AI segment whose revenue rose to $7.56B. Cursor is now a SpaceX subsidiary, so it has no standalone funding rounds. <https://payloadspace.com/spacexs-ai-revenue-leads-q3-earnings/> - 2026-10-20 [neutral] NET: Cloudflare patches products after eMudhra certificate keys were compromised - Private keys for 8 widely trusted eMudhra intermediate certificates were exposed. Cloudflare deployed fixes within about 26 hours, found no exploitation on its services, and told customers to update WARP and cloudflared (2026.10.2) and review mTLS trust stores. <https://blog.cloudflare.com/emudhra-certificate-compromise/> - 2026-10-21 [positive] HOOD: Robinhood up about 4% after Rosenblatt starts coverage at Buy - Rosenblatt initiated at Buy with a $135 target and called it a "generational growth story", and a bitcoin rebound lifted crypto-linked names. Q3 results are due next week. <https://stockstory.org/us/stocks/nasdaq/hood/news/why-up-down/robinhood-hood-stock-is-up-what-you-need-to-know-5> - 2026-10-19 [negative] AAPL: Jefferies: iPhone 18 Pro demand weakening, with about 2M units of assembly orders cut - China lead times for the Pro and Pro Max are at zero, PDD cut prices 6-9% on Oct 16, and chip orders were trimmed 10-15%. China sell-through growth slowed from over 40% to about 8%, while the foldable Duo's lead time is over 90 days. <https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/analyst-says-iphone-18-demand-weakness-is-intensifying-4957200> - 2026-10-21 [negative] 1211: BYD falls about 3% as September China retail drops 29% and CATL disappoints - BYD's domestic passenger retail sales were 246,816 in September (down 28.9% y/y), though it still led with a 22.8% NEV share and overseas sales are booming. Q3 results are due Oct 29. <https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/unternehmensnachrichten/byd-s-domestic-retail-slump-tests-the-bull-case-as-catl-s-weak-quarter-weighs-on-hong-kong/70384413> - 2026-10-21 [neutral] MACRO: Lam Research down 6% after hours despite a beat, while TXN guides Q4 above estimates - Lam posted revenue of $8.22B vs $8.13B and guided December to $8.6B +/- $0.4B (consensus $8.54B), but the wide range and an 80% one-year run prompted selling. Texas Instruments revenue rose 28% to $6.06B and it guided Q4 EPS to $2.45-2.79 vs $2.27 expected. <https://www.investing.com/news/earnings/lam-research-tops-firstquarter-targets-and-issues-upbeat-guidance-stock-falls-4963987> - 2026-10-19 [positive] MACRO: Chip index snaps its 8-day losing streak, its longest since 2008 - The SOX rose about 2.7% on Oct 19 after losing about 15.7% over eight sessions, led by memory names. The Nasdaq added 1.1% on Oct 21. <https://finance.biggo.com/news/3cf1aba9-a412-43e8-a3b8-87024eb5ee3d> - 2026-10-20 [negative] FED: 10-year at 5.14%; October hike odds about 17%, December about 90% - Odds of an October hike fell from about 50% after Chair Warsh declined to signal a move this month, but markets still expect one by December. The FOMC meets Oct 27-28, with the decision at Thu Oct 29 05:00 AEDT. <https://www.mitrade.com/insights/forex-analysis/usds/dollar-102-yield-514-hike-odds-17-20261020J1350> - 2026-10-21 [negative] MACRO: Brent touched $112 on Iranian mine claims in Hormuz, then settled near $109 - The IRGC claimed mines stopped three tankers on a route it calls unauthorized, and the US disputes the claims. Prices eased after Iran said indirect talks with Washington continue; Brent settled at $108.79 Tuesday and $108.82 Wednesday. <https://www.hngn.com/articles/273562/20261021/brent-tops-110-five-month-high-hormuz-mines-reprice-oil-before-midterms.htm> - 2026-10-19 [neutral] MACRO: China Q3 GDP grows 4.5%, ahead of the 4.4% forecast - GDP rose 1.2% q/q, September industrial output rose 5.5% and retail sales 1.1%, while fixed asset investment fell 7.2% year to date. Exports are carrying growth and the property market is still weak. <https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/articles/china-q3-gdp-grows-4-024818026.html> - 2026-10-20 [negative] SE: Sea launches enterprise cloud arm, weighs Monee IPO - A CEO memo filed Oct 20 said Sea will sell AI cloud services to businesses (Sea Cloud) and is considering listing its Monee fintech arm. No capex, timing or valuation given. Shares fell 16.9% over Oct 19-21 to $77.94. <https://sg.news.yahoo.com/shopee-parent-launches-cloud-business-weighs-listing-of-fintech-arm-044733686.html> - 2026-10-21 [positive] GEV: BofA previews 44% Q3 order growth; GE Vernova up 4% - BofA reaffirmed Buy ($1,310) ahead of the Oct 28 report, forecasting about 44% y/y order growth. GE Vernova also won a 9E turbine order for a 372 MW plant in Cote d'Ivoire. <https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/why-is-ge-vernova-stock-rallying-today-93CH-4963296> - 2026-10-13 [neutral] NET: Cloudflare sets Q3 report for Nov 5 - Q3 results after the US close Thu Nov 5, call 5pm ET (09:00 AEDT Fri Nov 6), a week later than estimated. <https://www.stocktitan.net/news/NET/cloudflare-announces-date-of-third-quarter-2026-financial-c621nx8sm6zm.html> ## Notes Four parallel agents (holdings; loves+macro; watchlist; bellwethers+calendar). Axos trades as AX on Yahoo. Meta after-hours move only from Fortune (3-5%). Anthropic $80.7B H1 loss is WSJ via TechCrunch, unexplained. Rocket Oct 29 and loanDepot Nov 5 dates are estimates. Watchlist analyst targets not re-checked. Fed hike odds from mitrade (17% Oct, ~90% Dec).
Nothing here is financial advice. Holdings and opinions are my own; the "agent" sections are written by an automated research skill and may be wrong. Built 2026-10-21 22:11 UTC.