# Research run 2026-10-26T00:30 UTC ## What changed - Meta's capex raise and Lam's supply warning hit chips: SOX fell 6.7% Oct 22; Meta down 8%, Marvell 7% since Oct 21. - Mortgage names rose as the 10-year fell to 5.00%: loanDepot up about 15%, Rocket 6% since Oct 21. - Brent hit about $116, its highest since June 2022; futures give a Fed hike this week only about 9%. - Bloom Q3 revenue up 138% with guidance raised again; moved to accumulate. Credo cut to low conviction on new competition. - OpenAI reported near a $30B raise at $1.25T, below its $1.4T target; not closed, so the mark is unchanged. - This week, all morning AEDT: Enphase Wed; Fed, Alphabet, Microsoft Thu; Amazon, Axos, Rocket Fri. ## Market summary A second losing week for growth: in the week to Fri Oct 23 the S&P 500 fell 0.5% to 7,623.68 and the Nasdaq 0.7% to 25,955.34, while the Dow (+0.4%) and Russell 2000 (+2.0%) rose. The damage was in chips: the SOX fell more than 6% on Thu Oct 22 after Lam Research flagged supply constraints, on top of worries about AI funding and credit (Marvell -9%, Intel -7% that day), and Tesla's Q3 showed operating income down 56% y/y with capex lower than Q2. Money moved into bonds, so the 10-year fell 8bp on the week to 5.00% even as Brent rose about 5% to roughly $116, its highest since June 2022, on fears of renewed US strikes on Iran with Hormuz navigation still unresolved. Futures put the chance of a hike this week at about 9% (rates held at 3.75-4.00%), with a December hike still priced. Energy-for-AI stayed strong: Bloom Energy grew Q3 revenue 138% and raised guidance for the third time this year. Brazil's Oct 25 runoff was still undecided at publication, with Lula narrowly ahead at about two-thirds counted. Next: Robinhood Q3 Wed Oct 28 ~07:00 AEDT; Enphase Wed Oct 28 morning AEDT; Fed decision Thu Oct 29 05:00 AEDT; Apple Mac event Thu Oct 29 04:00 AEDT; Alphabet and Microsoft Thu Oct 29 morning AEDT; BYD Q3 Thu Oct 29 evening AEDT; US GDP/PCE Thu Oct 29 23:30 AEDT; Amazon and Intel Fri Oct 30 morning AEDT. ## Holdings - AMZN: hold - Down 5% since Oct 21 in the Meta-led AI capex selloff. Q3 results Thu Oct 29 after close (~7am AEDT Fri Oct 30); AWS growth vs capex is the test. - AXOS: hold - Up 2% since Oct 21, steady while tech sold off. Fiscal Q1 results Thu Oct 29 after close, call ~8am AEDT Fri Oct 30. - BABA: watch - Down 5% since Oct 21 after China's market regulator told e-commerce platforms to tighten quality controls, hitting livestream and quick retail. Results Nov 24. - ENPH: watch - Down 1% since Oct 21. Q3 results Tue Oct 27 after close (~7am AEDT Wed Oct 28); Q4 guidance matters most. - FIGR: hold - Down 9% since Oct 21 with no company-specific bad news; small business lending hit a first $100M quarter. Q3 results Nov 12 pre-market (~12:30am AEDT Nov 13). - GOOGL: hold - Down 4% since Oct 21 on AI spending worries. Q3 results Wed Oct 28 after close (~7am AEDT Thu Oct 29); Cloud growth vs capex is the test. - LDI: hold - Up about 15% since Oct 21 as Treasury yields fell sharply. Q3 date not yet announced; early November likely. Small, high-risk position. - META: hold - Down 8% since Oct 21: Q3 beat and Q4 guide fine, but capex raised, free cash flow negative, buybacks paused and a new non-voting share class coming. - MRVL: hold - Down 7% since Oct 21 after an 8.7% drop on Oct 22 tied to Meta capex and Lam Research supply warnings. Credit facility doubled to $3B. - MU: hold - Down 4% since Oct 21 in the chip selloff. Taoyuan strike was 11 officials, no output hit; talks resume Mon Oct 27 after members rejected the offer. - NFLX: watch - Up 1% since Oct 21 after the post-earnings drop on a cut ad forecast and softer Q4 guide. Down 29% this year; wait for a base. - NVDA: hold - Down 5% since Oct 21 in the AI capex scare, no company-specific news. Demand still exceeds supply, including China RTX PRO 5500 orders. - OPENAI: hold - Reported near a ~$30B raise at $1.25T pre-money, cut from $1.4T after investor pushback. Not closed, so mark stays at the March round. - RKT: hold - Up 6% since Oct 21 as yields dropped. Q3 results Thu Oct 29, call 4:30pm ET (~7:30am AEDT Fri Oct 30). - STRIPE: hold - No new tender or round reported since the $159B February 2026 tender. Mark unchanged. - TSM: hold - Down 3% since Oct 21 in the chip selloff after a record quarter. Lam's supply warning points to tight capacity, which favours TSMC pricing. ## Watchlist changes - CRDO:US watch/medium -> watch/low - BE:US watch/medium -> accumulate/medium ## Watchlist - ALAB:US Astera Labs - watch (medium) - Astera Labs sells PCIe, CXL and Ethernet connectivity chips for AI racks; Q2 revenue was $392M (+105% y/y). It fell 11.1% on Oct 22 in the chip selloff (SOX -6.7%) and closed Oct 23 at $257.16, down 11.3% since Oct 21 and 33% below the Oct 7 close of $382.25. No company news found. - AVGO:US Broadcom - accumulate (medium) - Broadcom supplies custom AI accelerators (Google, Meta, OpenAI) plus Ethernet networking and VMware. It held up better than most chips, -4.3% on Oct 22, closing Oct 23 at $321.68 (-4.8% since Oct 21). Meta's Q3 capex of $34.9B supports custom-silicon volume. - CLS:US Celestica - watch (medium) - Celestica builds 800G/1.6T networking switches, servers and storage for hyperscalers; it guided Q3 to $5.3-5.6B revenue and $2.88-3.08 EPS (consensus about $5.44B and $2.97) and 2026 to $20.5B. It fell 11.7% on Oct 22 and closed Oct 23 at $260.01, down 14.6% since Oct 21, going into tonight's report. - CRDO:US Credo Technology - watch (low) - Credo sells active electrical cables (AECs), optical DSPs and retimers; fiscal Q1 2027 revenue was $479M (+115% y/y). It fell 19.2% over Oct 22-23 to $147.29 after MaxLinear said on its Oct 22 call it will target 20-30% of 1.6T AECs within a couple of years (it puts Credo's share at 93-99%), and third-party research flagged slower 1.6T rollouts. Conviction cut to low until fiscal Q2 shows the 1.6T ramp. - SKHY:US SK hynix ADR - buy (high) - SK hynix is the leading HBM supplier to Nvidia and the number-two DRAM maker. The ADR fell 8.1% on Oct 22, then rose 4.1% on Oct 23 to $137.02 after SK hynix dropped plans to list its US NAND unit Solidigm on Nasdaq, following shareholder backlash. Seoul shares closed Oct 23 at KRW 1,277,000 (+4.4%). Q3 on Oct 28 is the test. - BE:US Bloom Energy - accumulate (medium) - Bloom makes solid-oxide fuel cells for onsite data-centre power. Q3 revenue was a record $1.236B (+138% y/y), product revenue +179%, adjusted EPS $0.94 vs $0.69 expected, and 2026 guidance was raised a third time to $4.4-4.6B (from $3.9-4.2B). The stock fell 19% over Oct 22-23 to $193.30 on Q3 free cash flow of -$181M and the AI selloff, so forward P/E is about 40x vs 78x on Sep 30. Upgraded to accumulate. - GEV:US GE Vernova - accumulate (high) - GE Vernova builds gas turbines, grid equipment and wind for the power build-out; Q2 orders rose 88% y/y and backlog is $176B. It fell 10.6% on Oct 22 with AI-power names after Meta's results, closing Oct 23 at $815.00, down 12.0% since Oct 21 and about 31% below the June 30 record of $1,174.86. No company news; BofA's Q3 preview (orders about +44% y/y, $1,310 target) stands. - VRT:US Vertiv - accumulate (medium) - Vertiv sells power, thermal and liquid-cooling gear for data centres; it guided Q3 sales to $3.65-3.85B and lifted FY26 EPS to $6.65-6.75. It fell 7.8% on Oct 22 with AI-infrastructure names and closed Oct 23 at $194.32, down 8.4% since Oct 21; no company news found. - HOOD:US Robinhood - accumulate (medium) - Robinhood is a retail brokerage adding prediction markets, perpetual futures and Robinhood Agents; Q2 revenue was $1.31B (+32%). Preliminary September data to Sep 24 showed about $267B equity volume, 234M options contracts and 4.4B event contracts. It closed Oct 23 at $95.07, down 6.7% since Oct 21 in the tech selloff. - MELI:US MercadoLibre - accumulate (medium) - MercadoLibre runs Latin America's largest marketplace, logistics network and Mercado Pago; Q2 net revenue was $10.2B (+50% y/y) while operating income fell 17%. It closed Oct 23 at $1,810.15, down 2.4% since Oct 21. Brazil's Oct 25 runoff was still undeclared at last check: TSE had Lula 50.14% vs Flavio Bolsonaro 49.86% with about half counted, after the lead changed hands several times. - NET:US Cloudflare - accumulate (high) - Cloudflare runs a global edge network selling security, CDN, zero-trust and the Workers developer platform; Q2 revenue was $696M (+36%) and it guided Q3 to $736-737M. It closed Oct 23 at $325.73 (+7.3% that day on target raises), up 6.0% since Oct 21 while chips fell. - SE:US Sea Limited - watch (low) - Sea runs Shopee, Monee (digital finance) and Garena across Southeast Asia and Brazil; Q2 revenue was $7.79B (+48%). After the Oct 20 memo on launching Sea Cloud and weighing a Monee IPO, it kept falling to $74.63 on Oct 23, below the prior 52-week low of $77.05 and 21% under the Oct 16 level. No new company news found. - 6861:JP Keyence - buy (high) - Keyence sells machine-vision, sensors and measurement gear direct to factories with industry-leading margins and no debt. It closed Oct 23 at JPY 78,380 (about US$500 at 156.84), down 3.1% since Oct 21, a much smaller fall than US chip names. Lam's record quarter and supply-constrained guide point to continued fab spending, a core end market. - ASML:US ASML Holding - buy (high) - ASML is the only supplier of EUV lithography tools; Q3 sales were a record EUR 11.66B and it guided 2026 to EUR 44-45B, saying 2027-28 supply will not fully meet demand. The ADR fell 6.9% on Oct 22 when Lam said supply limits cut $300-400M from its Dec-quarter guide and could constrain the industry into 2027; it closed Oct 23 at $1,571.80 (-6.3% since Oct 21). Demand is not the issue. - TER:US Teradyne - watch (medium) - Teradyne makes test equipment for AI accelerators, HBM and mobile chips, plus Universal Robots; Q3 guidance is $1.20-1.30B revenue and $1.85-2.15 EPS (consensus about $1.26B and $2.05-2.08). It fell 10.6% on Oct 22 and closed Oct 23 at $308.85, down 10.6% since Oct 21. Options price a move of about 13% on the report. ## Bellwether changes - h100_rental: Silicon Data SDH100RT $2.86/hr on Oct 21, a new high (+10.0% 7d), up 4c from $2.82 on Oct 17. H200 $3.47 (+5.5%), A100 $1.55 (+0.6%), MI300X $2.75 (+5.0%). CME H100/B200 futures: no listing news./bullish -> Silicon Data SDH100RT $2.89/hr on Oct 25, a new high (+6.2% 7d), up 3c from $2.86 on Oct 21. H200 $3.47 (+3.9%), A100 $1.56 (+0.6%), MI300X $2.75 (+5.0%). CME H100/B200 futures: CFTC review still runs to Nov 9, no listing./bullish - b200_rental: Silicon Data B200 $6.14 on Oct 21 (+6.6% 7d), a new high, up 2c; B300 $7.02 (+1.0% 7d), up 1c. B200/H100 ratio 2.15x (6.14/2.86), down from 2.17x as H100 rose faster. Both above the $4.50 and 2x triggers./bullish -> Silicon Data B200 $6.60 on Oct 25 (+12.4% 7d), a new high, up 46c from $6.14; B300 $7.53 (+10.7% 7d), up 51c. B200/H100 ratio 2.28x (6.60/2.89), up from 2.15x. Both well above the $4.50 and 2x triggers./bullish - hopper_residual: A100 index $1.55 Oct 21 (+0.6% 7d; trigger $1.50), up 2c, five cents above the floor. H200 $3.47. Silicon Data residual study (Jan 30 data): used H100 ~65-75% of new at 2 yrs, 45-55% at 3 yrs. Meta Q3 (Oct 21): no GPU useful-life change or impairment reported./bullish -> A100 index $1.56 Oct 25 (+0.6% 7d; trigger $1.50), up 1c, six cents above the floor. H200 $3.47. Silicon Data residual study (Jan 30 data): used H100 ~65-75% of new at 2 yrs, 45-55% at 3 yrs. No GPU useful-life cut or Hopper impairment reported so far in Q3 results./bullish - dc_cost_per_gw: 10-yr Treasury par yield 5.13% on Oct 21, up 4bp from 5.09% Oct 16 (5.15% Oct 19); 2-yr 4.81%, up 7bp. Huang (GTC Berlin Oct 21): a 1 GW AI factory costs about $50B all-in; a 3-month delay costs ~$10B of revenue./neutral -> 10-yr Treasury par yield 5.00% on Oct 23, down 13bp from 5.13% Oct 21 (4.96% Oct 22, lowest this month); 2-yr 4.69%, down 12bp. Build cost unchanged near $50B per GW (Huang, Oct 21)./neutral - memory_prices: TrendForce spot Oct 21: DDR5 16Gb $60.87 (+0.28%), a new high; DDR4 16Gb $83.12 (-0.30%); DDR4 8Gb $46.79 (+0.93%). Public contract table still 2H Aug; Sep 30 update says contracts 'stable with expected growth momentum'./bullish -> TrendForce spot Oct 23: DDR5 16Gb $61.27 (+0.27%), a new high; DDR4 16Gb $82.87 (-0.30%); DDR4 8Gb $47.11 (+0.23%). Public contract table still 2H Aug. Lam (Oct 21-22): supply-chain constraints held back its Dec-quarter guide and persist into 2027./bullish - power_bottleneck: TCEQ told Abbott Oct 19 it has paused permits 'directly supporting data centers'; it suspended six stormwater permits Public Citizen flagged (Oct 20). ERCOT 474 GW large-load queue; ERCOT/PUCT audit due Dec 10. PJM refiling due by Oct 29 after FERC's Oct 9 rejection./bullish -> PJM to file a revised reliability-backstop plan (6.8 GW shortfall) at FERC by Oct 29; large-load registry compliance filing due ~Nov 9. TCEQ data-centre permit pause still in force, no end date. UK: Microsoft dropped Nscale's Essex site after grid told it power would not arrive until the 2030s./bullish - capex_vs_backlog: Meta Q3 (Oct 21): capex $34.9B (vs $19.4B a year ago); 2026 guide narrowed to $135-145B; free cash flow -$2.1B, capex above operating cash flow; revenue $64.6B (+26%), Q4 guide $73-76B; no 2027 capex figure. Lam guided Dec-qtr revenue $8.6B +/- $0.4B./neutral -> Meta Q3 (Oct 21): capex $34.9B; 2026 guide $135-145B; free cash flow -$2.1B. Supermicro pre-announced Sep-qtr revenue $18.5-19.5B vs $14.5-15.5B guide on 'increased demand for AI platforms'. MSFT, GOOGL report Oct 28, AMZN Oct 29 (US time)./neutral - neocloud_credit: CoreWeave 9.75% Oct 2031 notes near 80.6c (yield ~15.6%) on Oct 20, vs ~11.3% in mid-August; stock at its lowest since May 2025. 5-yr CDS around 1,100bp Oct 19, below the 1,194.5bp record. Bonds steadied rather than rebounded./bearish -> CoreWeave 9.75% 2031 notes ~79c (yield near 16%) and 9.625% notes 77.5c in the week to Oct 23 (PitchBook), down from ~80.6c on Oct 20. CDS last ~1,082bp (Oct 19); record 1,194.5bp. Nebius took a 364-day $3.5B Citi facility. Huang: neoclouds lack working capital./bearish - nvidia_dc: GTC Berlin keynote Oct 21: Vera Rubin 'in full production'; DSX POD (seven Rubin NVL72 racks, factory-built) early 2027; 1 GW AI factory ~$50B; token use 'through the roof'. Nearly $10B committed to Europe. Google Cloud: Rubin A5X GA next month, up to 960k Rubin GPUs. NVDA ~9% below its Oct 6 record./bullish -> Huang (GTC Berlin / CNBC, Oct 21-22): demand 'strong' but neoclouds lack working capital; wants GPUs to be a 'financeable asset' banks lend against. NVDA fell about 4% Oct 22 as the chip index dropped 6.7% on Lam's supply warning. Rubin in full production; Google Cloud Rubin GA next month./bullish ## Calendar changes - added 2026-10-28 AAPL Apple 'Pro and Tell' Mac event, Los Angeles - added 2026-10-29 1211 BYD Q3 2026 results - 2026-10-29-ecb-decision: 2026-10-29 Governing Council Oct 28-29, decision and press conference Oct 29; time not on ECB calendar (Europe is on CET from Oct 25, so a mid-afternoon Frankfurt announcement lands after midnight AEDT Fri Oct 30) - TBC -> 2026-10-29 Decision 14:15 CET, press conference 14:45 CET (09:15 / 09:45 ET; 00:15 / 00:45 AEDT Fri Oct 30) - added 2026-10-29 MACRO PJM files revised reliability-backstop plan at FERC - added 2026-11-02 PLTR Palantir Q3 2026 results and webcast - 2026-11-03-rba-decision: 2026-11-03 Statement on Monetary Policy 14:30 AEDT Tue Nov 3 (22:30 ET Mon Nov 2); decision usually released at the same time, press conference TBC -> 2026-11-03 Decision and Statement on Monetary Policy 14:30 AEDT Tue Nov 3 (22:30 ET Mon Nov 2); Governor's media conference 15:30 AEDT - added 2026-11-03 SMCI Supermicro fiscal Q1 2027 results and call - added 2026-11-04 ARM Arm fiscal Q2 2027 results and webcast - added 2026-11-04 QCOM Qualcomm fiscal Q4 2026 results and call - added 2026-11-09 NVDA CFTC review deadline for CME H100/B200 GPU rental futures - 2026-10-29-rkt-q3: 2026-10-29 TBC (estimated after US close, call 16:30 ET = 07:30 AEDT Fri Oct 30) -> 2026-10-29 Release Thu Oct 29; call 16:30 ET (07:30 AEDT Fri Oct 30) ## New news (32) - 2026-10-21 [negative] META: Meta Q3 beats on revenue but capex rises, free cash flow turns negative - Revenue rose 26% to $64.6B and the Q4 guide of $73-76B was in line or better, but 2026 capex is now $135-145B, Q3 free cash flow was -$2.1B and buybacks are paused. A non-voting Class C share, one per existing share, arrives Jan 2027. <https://www.xtb.com/int/market-analysis/news-and-research/record-breaking-meta-though-with-a-cash-loss-investors-for-now-are-buying-zuckerberg-s-plan-anyway> - 2026-10-22 [negative] META: Meta falls about 7%, Nasdaq drops 2.6% as AI spending fears spread - The Nasdaq had its worst day since June and the Philadelphia chip index fell 6.7%. Marvell fell 8.7%, Micron 6.3% and TSMC 4.5%, while Treasury yields fell sharply as money moved to safety. <https://www.kucoin.com/news/flash/meta-s-ai-spending-spook-markets-nasdaq-plummets-2-6> - 2026-10-22 [negative] MRVL: Lam Research supply warning deepens chip selloff - Lam's CEO said clean room space and component shortages will constrain chipmakers into 2027. Marvell, AMD and Intel fell 7-8% in morning trade. <https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/articles/chip-stocks-fall-supply-warning-154508313.html> - 2026-10-22 [neutral] MU: Micron Taoyuan strike goes ahead with 11 union officials, no output disruption - The 24-hour solidarity strike followed Micron's deal with the larger Taichung union. The union said it was not meant to disrupt production but warned more workers could join. <https://focustaiwan.tw/business/202610220016> - 2026-10-23 [neutral] MU: Taoyuan members reject Micron profit-sharing offer; talks pushed to Oct 27 by typhoon - About 70% of voting members rejected the offer. Micron's new global quarterly bonus starts in fiscal 2027, but the union wants a fixed 15% of operating profit. <https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/stocks/us-stocks/262235910-micron-taoyuan-union-mu-profit-sharing-talks-tradingkey> - 2026-10-22 [negative] BABA: Alibaba falls as China tells e-commerce platforms to tighten quality controls - The State Administration for Market Regulation flagged risks in livestream sales and quick retail. Shares fell as much as 6.3% and the Hang Seng Tech index dropped 5.2% intraday. <https://www.gurufocus.com/news/9135970/alibaba-baba-shares-drop-63-amid-chinas-ecommerce-quality-crackdown> - 2026-10-23 [neutral] OPENAI: OpenAI nears up to $30B round at $1.25T, down from $1.4T target - Coatue and UAE funds are reported to be leading the round, seen as a bridge to a possible 2027 IPO. Nothing has been signed or announced. <https://www.aol.com/articles/openai-aiming-30-billion-funding-131325000.html> - 2026-10-22 [neutral] RKT: Rocket sets Q3 results for Oct 29 - Results come out before a 4:30pm ET call on Thu Oct 29. Mortgage lenders rose on Oct 22 as Treasury yields fell. <https://www.tradingview.com/news/prnewswire:ef49c42aeccd5:0-rocket-companies-to-announce-third-quarter-2026-results-on-october-29-2026/> - 2026-10-22 [neutral] FIGR: Figure sets Q3 results for Nov 12, small business lending tops $100M a quarter - Figure reports before the open on Nov 12, with the call at 8:30am ET. Its small business financing ecosystem had its first $50M month and first $100M quarter. <https://www.stocktitan.net/news/FIGR/figure-technology-solutions-announces-date-for-third-quarter-2026-ga0cl23hiawv.html> - 2026-10-23 [neutral] GOOGL: Alphabet reports Wed Oct 28; consensus about $128B revenue - Results come after the close, with the call at 4:30pm ET. Consensus EPS is about $3.02-3.04. Cloud growth against rising capex is the focus. <https://primexbt.com/for-traders/alphabet-earnings-date/> - 2026-10-15 [neutral] AMZN: Amazon reports Q3 on Thu Oct 29 - The call is at 5pm ET (about 8am AEDT Fri Oct 30). After Meta, the market is watching AWS growth against capex. <https://www.aboutamazon.com/md/news/company-news/amazon-earnings-q3-2026-report> - 2026-10-06 [neutral] ENPH: Enphase reports Q3 on Tue Oct 27 - The call is at 4:30pm ET, about 7:30am AEDT Wed Oct 28. Q2 revenue was $291.9M. <https://finviz.com/news/399170/enphase-energy-announces-conference-call-to-review-third-quarter-2026-financial-results> - 2026-10-23 [negative] MACRO: S&P 500 -0.5%, Nasdaq -0.7% for the week; second straight weekly loss - S&P 500 closed at 7,623.68 and the Nasdaq at 25,955.34 on Oct 23; the Dow rose 0.4% and the Russell 2000 2.0% on the week. Rising oil weighed on Friday. <https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/world-indices/articles/major-us-stock-indexes-fared-201458598.html> - 2026-10-22 [negative] MACRO: Chip index falls more than 6% in a day after Lam cites supply constraints - Lam said Q4 guidance would have been higher without supply limits and fell as much as 11%; Marvell fell 9%, Intel and Applied Materials 7%, ASML 6%. AI funding worries and higher oil added to the selling. <https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/article/chip-stocks-fall-as-equipment-maker-lam-research-cites-supply-chain-constraints-130648719.html> - 2026-10-23 [negative] MACRO: Brent hits about $116, highest since June 2022, up 5% on the week - Driven by talk of renewed US strikes on Iran and Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia; the war is not settled, with Hormuz navigation the main sticking point. WTI near $102.50. <https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20261023-brent-crude-hits-highest-since-june-2022-on-fears-of-renewed-us-strikes-on-iran/> - 2026-10-23 [neutral] FED: 10-year falls 8bp on the week to 5.00% as money leaves AI stocks - First weekly close below 5% in four weeks; 2-year 4.69%, 30-year 5.32%. Futures still price one more hike in December; CME put October hike odds near 9% (hold about 91%) ahead of the Oct 27-28 meeting. <https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/currencies/articles/stocktwits-weekly-spread-shaped-treasury-010033087.html> - 2026-10-22 [positive] MACRO: Bloom Energy Q3 revenue up 138% to $1.24B; raises 2026 guidance to $4.4-4.6B - Third raise this year; gross margin 33.8%, GAAP operating margin 18.2%. Bloom also joined the S&P 500, citing hyperscaler demand for onsite power. <https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001664703/000162828026066890/ex991_q326financialresults.htm> - 2026-10-22 [positive] SPOT: Spotify Q3: 306M subscribers, 1M ahead of guide; Q4 guide 316M and EUR 820M operating income - Revenue EUR 4.97B, up 14% in constant currency; gross margin 33.0%; operating income EUR 672M; free cash flow EUR 735M. MAU 788M. <https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001639920/000114036126040435/ef20084028_ex99-1.htm> - 2026-10-22 [positive] SPOT: Spotify shares up about 7-10% on the subscriber beat and Q4 guide - Both the subscriber and operating income guides for Q4 came in above analyst expectations, which outweighed revenue slightly below estimates. <https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/spotify-jumps-10-premium-subscriber-133733648.html> - 2026-10-23 [positive] ANTHROPIC: Anthropic and Hg plan a European AI consulting firm, per FT - Offices in London and Berlin, starting by end-2026, aiming for a valuation above $10B within five years. Adds services revenue ahead of the planned November IPO. <https://www.techzine.eu/news/infrastructure/145245/anthropic-plans-to-launch-a-european-consulting-firm/> - 2026-10-23 [neutral] ANTHROPIC: Anthropic merges Claude chat and Cowork into one experience for Enterprise - Chats move into a cloud sandbox when a task needs code or files. It is off by default for existing organisations and turns on by default Nov 16. <https://pymnts.com/news/artificial-intelligence/2026/anthropic-merges-claude-chat-and-cowork-for-enterprise-users> - 2026-10-23 [positive] NET: Cloudflare up 5.5% on Friday against a flat sector as analysts lift targets - Several brokers raised targets ahead of Q3 results (high $430). It also upsized a $2.5B zero-coupon convertible due 2031. <https://www.tradingkey.com/news/market-movers/262236233-market-movers-net-20261023> - 2026-10-23 [negative] HOOD: Robinhood ends the week about 37% below its 52-week high ahead of Q3 - Shares fell 1.6% Friday after losing ground in Thursday's chip selloff. Q3 is due Tue Oct 27 after the close (Wed ~07:00 AEDT); consensus is about $1.44B revenue, up 13%. <https://financefeeds.com/robinhood-hood-stock-at-95-before-q3-earnings-as-15-minute-bitcoin-bets-grow/> - 2026-10-23 [positive] AAPL: Apple briefly passes Nvidia as most valuable company on iPhone Duo launch day - The $1,999 foldable went on sale Oct 23 and Apple's market cap touched about $5.1T at an intraday record. Shares closed down 0.14%, leaving Nvidia back on top. <https://9to5mac.com/2026/10/23/apple-overtakes-nvidia-as-most-valuable-company-in-the-world-on-iphone-duo-launch-day/> - 2026-10-19 [neutral] AAPL: Apple sets 'Pro and tell' event for Oct 28; touchscreen OLED MacBook Pros expected - LA event at 10am PT (Thu 04:00 AEDT). Gurman expects touchscreen OLED MacBook Pros, an M6 iMac and an OLED iPad mini. <https://www.91mobiles.com/hub/apple-october-28th-pro-and-tell-event-touchscreen-macbook-pro-oled/> - 2026-10-23 [neutral] 1211: BYD up 4.4% in Hong Kong on a sector bounce; Q3 results due Oct 29 - Not company-specific. The Oct 22 session fell about 4% after China car retail for Oct 1-18 was down 26% y/y. BYD is also seeking to double its Brazil plant to 600,000 a year. <https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/unternehmensnachrichten/byd-s-4-4-prozent-hong-kong-rally-tracks-a-sector-bounce-not-a-company-catalyst/70410957> - 2026-10-22 [positive] BE: Bloom Q3 revenue +138% to $1.24B, 2026 guide raised to $4.4-4.6B; stock falls 11% - Record revenue and adjusted EPS of $0.94 beat; full-year guidance was raised for the third time. Shares fell 11.2% on Oct 23 to $193.30 on -$181M free cash flow from capacity capex and the AI selloff. <https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/10/23/bloom-energy-stock-sinks-despite-record-revenue-and-a-stellar-outlook-is-it-time-to-buy/> - 2026-10-22 [negative] ASML: SOX falls 6.7% after Lam flags supply limits; all 30 members down - Lam said supply constraints trimmed an estimated $300-400M from its Dec-quarter guide and could limit the industry into 2027. ASML fell 6.9%, Teradyne 10.6%, Astera 11.1%; Meta fell 7% on capex and $810B of commitments. <https://www.techtimes.com/articles/329406/20261023/chip-stocks-lose-200-billion-equipment-makers-warning-counters-nvidias-ai-optimism.htm> - 2026-10-23 [negative] CRDO: Credo down 19% in two days as MaxLinear targets its cable market - MaxLinear said it aims for 20-30% of 1.6T active electrical cables within a couple of years, where it puts Credo's share at 93-99%. Research also pointed to slower 1.6T rollouts; Credo closed at $147.29. <https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/credo-stock-fell-nearly-10-151111899.html> - 2026-10-23 [positive] SKHY: SK hynix drops Solidigm Nasdaq listing; shares rebound 4.4% - SK hynix abandoned plans to list its US NAND unit after shareholder pushback. Seoul shares rose 4.4% to KRW 1,277,000 and the ADR 4.1% to $137.02, as the KOSPI reversed a 4% intraday drop. <https://www.kedglobal.com/korean-stock-market/newsView/ked202610230002> - 2026-10-22 [negative] GEV: GE Vernova falls 10.6% with AI-power stocks after Meta results - No company news; the drop came with the AI selloff, with commentary citing valuation and wind losses. It closed Oct 23 at $815, about 31% below its June record, ahead of Q3 on Oct 28. <https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/gev/history/> - 2026-10-25 [neutral] MELI: Brazil runoff too close to call; Lula slightly ahead at half count - TSE had Lula 50.14% and Flavio Bolsonaro 49.86% with about half counted, after the lead swapped several times. Prediction markets favoured Lula; a Lula win would weigh on Brazilian assets. <https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20261025-live-voting-under-way-across-brazil-in-tight-presidential-run-off-between-lula-and-bolsonaro> ## Notes Prices are the Fri Oct 23 closes from stockanalysis.com history pages. AXOS trades as NYSE: AX, so its prices came from the AX history page. LDI shows only 2 decimals there (0.57 on Oct 22, 0.61 on Oct 23), so its move is about +15%, worked out from the daily changes of +8.53% and +6.78%. Meta reported Oct 21 after the close, which may overlap the previous run; included because the Oct 22 reaction drove the week. Netflix earnings and the Nvidia China RTX PRO 5500 orders (Reuters Oct 20) came before the window, so they were left out of news. Micron: the Taoyuan strike happened Oct 22-23 with 11 officials and no production hit; Oct 23 talks were postponed by a typhoon to Oct 27; members rejected the offer by about 70%. One TradingKey headline says Nov 27, but its body and other sources say Oct 27. Stripe: no new tender or round found since Feb 2026; one blog cites unsourced $172-176B secondary pricing from Aug 2026, ignored. OpenAI: $1.25T pre-money is in talks, not closed, so mark unchanged; if it closes at $1.25T pre-money, the mark is about 7.96x the $157B 2024 level. Earnings times: US is on EDT until Nov 1, so 4:30pm ET = 7:30am AEDT next day. Confirmed dates: ENPH Oct 27, GOOGL Oct 28, AMZN Oct 29 (call 5pm ET), AXOS Oct 29 (call 5pm ET), RKT Oct 29, FIGR Nov 12 pre-market. No LDI date announced yet (Q2 was Aug 4). BABA results listed for Nov 24. Fed decision is also this week. Some sources (Business Standard, primexbt, kucoin) are secondary; The OpenAI news item cites the Yahoo/AOL story (opened), which confirms the $30B round at $1.25T is still in talks. The lead investors (Coatue, UAE funds), the $1.4T prior target and 'pre-money' come from Business Standard and CNBC search snippets; both pages returned 403 when fetched. I found no material GOOGL, AMZN, NVDA, TSM or NFLX company news in the window beyond the market moves. The TSMC Kaohsiung fab accident was reported but could not be dated, so it was left out. | Nothing material found since Oct 21 for Cursor (part of SpaceX since Aug 14) or Stripe (last tender $159B, Feb 2026). Claude Duet (Oct 21) was already covered last run. The Anthropic IPO valuation talk ($1.5T vs $2T, Reuters) dates from about Oct 15-16 and was not repeated. Brazil runoff Oct 25 was unresolved at write time: Rio Times had Lula 50.52% vs Flavio Bolsonaro 49.48% with 59.8% counted (https://www.riotimesonline.com/brazil-election-results-2026/); check again before publishing. The size of Spotify's move varies by source (7-11%). Cloudflare's Oct 23 gain is 5.5% per TradingKey but about 7.3% per Morningstar/Macrotrends (not opened). Apple's earnings date was reported as Nov 2 but not confirmed. Times are AEDT (US clocks change Nov 1). No China/tariff news since the late-September truce extension to Jan 10. The Tesla Q3 figures (operating income -56% y/y, capex $4.73B vs $5.79B in Q2) come from https://electrek.co/2026/10/21/tesla-tsla-q3-2026-financial-results/; I could not find a confirmed post-earnings share move. | Prices are Oct 23 US closes (StockAnalysis history pages); Keyence JPY 78,380 converted at USD/JPY 156.84 (Investing.com close via search). Status changes: BE watch->accumulate (beat and third raise, price -19%, forward P/E ~40x); CRDO conviction medium->low (MaxLinear competition, 1.6T timing). No removals and no adds: SE is the weakest (new 52-week low, cloud spend unknown) but its thesis is not broken before Q3 ~Nov 10, and no candidate was clearly better. Brazil runoff winner was not declared in any source found; refresh MELI once TSE calls it. Keyence Q2 date Oct 29 per StockAnalysis only; some calendars projected Oct 22-23, but no release was found. Celestica Q3 guide corrected to $5.3-5.6B / $2.88-3.08 EPS per Q2 report coverage. NET and HOOD: no new stories beyond those already covered; prices refreshed only. | Verified, no change (left out of the calendar list): rkt-q3 still unconfirmed (AJ Bell Oct 29 16:30, no company notice found; IR page did not render); ldi-q3 no notice; meli-q3 IR still says Nov 4 'provisional'; se-q3 no notice, last year Nov 11, still outside the window; keyence-q2 Oct 29 after Tokyo close, exact time still not found; boj-decision Oct 29-30, Outlook Report Oct 30, no fixed time on the BoJ page. Out of range or unconfirmed, not added: CoreWeave Q3 (third-party estimates Nov 10 or Nov 16, no company notice yet; last year's notice came Oct 27); BABA (estimate ~Nov 24); MRVL (late Nov/early Dec); US October CPI is Nov 10 08:30 ET = 00:30 AEDT Nov 11, just outside; FIGR Nov 12. The Brazil runoff was Oct 25; I found no result, so nothing was re-emitted. The ECB times from Admiral Markets are 09:15 ET, not the 08:15 ET some calendars give (the US is still on EDT on Oct 29). One third-party calendar (stockti) showed GOOGL Oct 27 and META Oct 28, which conflicts with company IR, so I ignored it. CoreWeave bond prices come from Martin Cid citing PitchBook for the week to Oct 23 with no exact day; Benzinga's pages returned 403. Kept the explainer unchanged: the picture held (rents up, credit worse), and only the numbers moved. The Nscale/Microsoft exit was reported Oct 18-19 but was missing from the last run's notes.
Nothing here is financial advice. Holdings and opinions are my own; the "agent" sections are written by an automated research skill and may be wrong. Built 2026-10-25 23:53 UTC.