# Research run 2026-10-26T14:00 UTC ## What changed - Anthropic filed its public S-1 for a Nasdaq listing as ANT; H1 revenue $16.3B, valuation talk $1.5-2T. - Meta launched a $35B stock sale to fund AI, about 2% dilution, with $60B more planned from 2027. - Lula won Brazil's runoff 51.8% to 48.2%; Brazil ADRs fell 10-29% premarket and MercadoLibre about 12%. - Chips led Monday's open: Micron up 3%, Nvidia 2%; Brent down 5% near $110 as Iran strike fears eased. - Next, AEDT: Celestica Tue ~7am; Robinhood and Enphase Wed ~7am; Fed Thu 5am; Alphabet Thu ~7:30am. ## Market summary Anthropic filed its public S-1 on Monday for a Nasdaq listing as ANT. Reports put the valuation at $1.5-2T, with listing expected mid-November. Lula won Brazil's runoff 51.8% to 48.2%, Flavio Bolsonaro has not conceded, and Brazil ADRs fell 10-29% premarket. US stocks opened about 0.5% higher, led by chips, and Brent fell about 5% to near $110 after Trump ruled out an immediate strike on Iran. The 10-year yield is flat near 4.99%. Asia was mixed on Monday: Nikkei -0.8%, Kospi -1.5%, Hang Seng +0.5%. Futures price about 91% for a Fed hold this week but about 80% for a hike in December. Next: Robinhood Q3 Wed ~7am AEDT, Enphase Q3 Wed ~7:30am AEDT, Alphabet Q3 Thu ~7:30am AEDT, Fed decision Thu 5am AEDT, Amazon/Axos/Rocket Fri ~8am AEDT. ## Holdings - AMZN: hold - Up 0.3% Monday. Anthropic's IPO filing should give its Anthropic stake a public mark. Q3 Thu US (Fri ~8am AEDT); AWS growth and capex are the test. - AXOS: hold - Up 0.8% Monday. No new news. Fiscal Q1 Thu US (Fri ~8am AEDT); watch loan growth and margin. - BABA: watch - Flat Monday, up 0.3%. No new news since the SAMR item; Hang Seng +0.5%. Wait for the November quarter print. - ENPH: watch - Down 3% Monday ahead of Q3 Tue US close (Wed ~7:30am AEDT). Q4 guide and the loss of the US tax credit are the swing factors. - FIGR: hold - Down 1% Monday, no new news. Earnings date unchanged. - GOOGL: hold - Flat Monday. Anthropic's IPO should give Google's stake a public mark. Q3 Wed US (Thu ~7:30am AEDT); Cloud growth vs capex decides it. - LDI: hold - Down 3% Monday on no news. Yields flat near 5% still weigh on mortgage volume. - META: hold - Down 1% Monday after launching a $35B stock sale (about 2% dilution) for AI, with $60B more from 2027. Shareholders now fund the capex; watch. - MRVL: hold - Up 1% Monday with chips. No company news. - MU: hold - Up 3% Monday. Taoyuan union talks are due Oct 27 Taiwan, and the dispute is unresolved after the 24-hour strike. SK Hynix reports Oct 28. - NFLX: watch - Down 1% Monday, near its 52-week low and down 7% since Oct 19 after the ad forecast cut. No new catalyst. - NVDA: hold - Up 2% Monday after three down weeks. Anthropic's S-1 commits about $3.1B a month to Nvidia-GPU compute; neocloud credit stress is the risk. - OPENAI: hold - The $30B raise at a $1.25T valuation is still unclosed, with signatures sought this week. Anthropic's IPO sets a public comparable. Mark unchanged. - RKT: hold - Down 0.5% Monday, no news. Q3 Thu US (Fri ~8am AEDT); with the 10-year near 5%, origination volume is the watch item. - STRIPE: hold - No new round or tender. The last company-set mark is the $159B February tender. Mark unchanged. - TSM: hold - Up 1% Monday with chips. No new company news. ## Watchlist - ALAB:US Astera Labs - watch (medium) - Astera Labs sells PCIe, CXL and Ethernet connectivity chips for AI racks; Q2 revenue was $392M (+105% y/y). It closed Oct 23 at $257.16, 33% below the Oct 7 close of $382.25, and was $259.19 (+0.8%) early Monday Oct 26. No company news since Oct 12. - AVGO:US Broadcom - accumulate (medium) - Broadcom supplies custom AI accelerators (Google, Meta, OpenAI) plus Ethernet networking and VMware. Meta launched a raise of up to $95B in stock on Oct 26 to fund AI build-outs, and Broadcom, Nvidia and AMD indicated (non-binding) interest in buying up to $5B of it. AVGO was $326.65 (+1.5%) early Monday. - CLS:US Celestica - watch (medium) - Celestica builds 800G/1.6T networking switches, servers and storage for hyperscalers; it guided Q3 to $5.25-5.55B revenue and $2.88-3.08 EPS and 2026 to $20.5B. It closed Oct 23 at $260.01 (-14.6% since Oct 21) and was $262.19 (+0.8%) early Monday ahead of tonight's report. Results not out at time of writing. - CRDO:US Credo Technology - watch (low) - Credo sells active electrical cables (AECs), optical DSPs and retimers; fiscal Q1 2027 revenue was $479M (+115% y/y). It fell 19.2% over Oct 22-23 to $147.29 after MaxLinear said on its Oct 22 call it will target 20-30% of 1.6T AECs within a couple of years (it puts Credo's share at 93-99%), and third-party research flagged slower 1.6T rollouts. Conviction cut to low until fiscal Q2 shows the 1.6T ramp. - SKHY:US SK hynix ADR - buy (high) - SK hynix is the leading HBM supplier to Nvidia and the number-two DRAM maker. Dong-A Ilbo reported Oct 26 it is weighing a special dividend of about KRW 16T ($12B) from its Kioxia gains, possibly announced with Q3 on Wednesday; the company says a shareholder-return plan comes then but no dividend is decided. Seoul shares closed Oct 26 at KRW 1.28M (-0.16%) as the KOSPI fell 1.46%; the ADR was $141.47 (+3.3%) early Monday. - BE:US Bloom Energy - accumulate (medium) - Bloom makes solid-oxide fuel cells for onsite data-centre power. Q3 revenue was a record $1.236B (+138% y/y), product revenue +179%, adjusted EPS $0.94 vs $0.69 expected, and 2026 guidance was raised a third time to $4.4-4.6B (from $3.9-4.2B). The stock fell 19% over Oct 22-23 to $193.30 on Q3 free cash flow of -$181M and the AI selloff, so forward P/E is about 40x vs 78x on Sep 30. Upgraded to accumulate. - GEV:US GE Vernova - accumulate (high) - GE Vernova builds gas turbines, grid equipment and wind for the power build-out; Q2 orders rose 88% y/y and backlog is $176B. It closed Oct 23 at $815.00, about 31% below the June 30 record, and was $830.00 (+1.8%) early Monday. A new executive order on wind-turbine imports (talks with trading partners, no tariffs yet) could favour it over foreign turbine makers. BofA's Q3 preview (orders about +44% y/y) stands. - VRT:US Vertiv - accumulate (medium) - Vertiv sells power, thermal and liquid-cooling gear for data centres; it guided Q3 sales to $3.65-3.85B and lifted FY26 EPS to $6.65-6.75. It closed Oct 23 at $194.32 and was $196.96 (+1.4%) early Monday after completing the purchase of King Environmental Services, adding fluid-management services in Europe, the Middle East and Africa. - HOOD:US Robinhood - accumulate (medium) - Robinhood is a retail brokerage adding prediction markets, perpetual futures and Robinhood Agents; Q2 revenue was $1.31B (+32%). Preliminary September data to Sep 24 showed about $267B equity volume, 234M options contracts and 4.4B event contracts. It was $93.55 (-1.6%) early Monday, the day before Q3. - MELI:US MercadoLibre - accumulate (medium) - MercadoLibre runs Latin America's largest marketplace, logistics network and Mercado Pago; Q2 net revenue was $10.2B (+50% y/y) while operating income fell 17%. Brazil's electoral court declared Lula the runoff winner with about 51.8% to 48.2%; Flavio Bolsonaro refused to concede and will seek annulment. MELI opened Oct 26 at $1,578 and was $1,598.49 early, down 11.7% from $1,810.15, unwinding the election rally. - NET:US Cloudflare - accumulate (high) - Cloudflare runs a global edge network selling security, CDN, zero-trust and the Workers developer platform; Q2 revenue was $696M (+36%) and it guided Q3 to $736-737M. It closed Oct 23 at $325.73 (+7.3% that day on target raises), up 6.0% since Oct 21 while chips fell. - SE:US Sea Limited - watch (low) - Sea runs Shopee, Monee (digital finance) and Garena across Southeast Asia and Brazil; Q2 revenue was $7.79B (+48%). New Street cut it to Neutral from Buy with a $70 target on Oct 26, and it fell 3.5% early to $71.99, a new 52-week low and about 24% below the Oct 16 level, after the Oct 20 memo on launching Sea Cloud. - 6861:JP Keyence - buy (high) - Keyence sells machine-vision, sensors and measurement gear direct to factories with industry-leading margins and no debt. It closed Oct 26 at JPY 77,270 (about US$492 at 157.0), down 1.4% on the day and 4.5% since Oct 21, a smaller fall than US chip names. Lam's record quarter and supply-constrained guide point to continued fab spending, a core end market. - ASML:US ASML Holding - buy (high) - ASML is the only supplier of EUV lithography tools; Q3 sales were a record EUR 11.66B and it guided 2026 to EUR 44-45B, saying 2027-28 supply will not fully meet demand. The ADR fell 6.9% on Oct 22 when Lam warned of supply limits into 2027, closed Oct 23 at $1,571.80, and was $1,601.25 (+1.9%) early Monday. Demand is not the issue. - TER:US Teradyne - watch (medium) - Teradyne makes test equipment for AI accelerators, HBM and mobile chips, plus Universal Robots; Q3 guidance is $1.20-1.30B revenue and $1.85-2.15 EPS (consensus about $1.26B and $2.05-2.08). It fell 10.6% on Oct 22 and closed Oct 23 at $308.85, down 10.6% since Oct 21. Options price a move of about 13% on the report. ## Bellwether changes - memory_prices: TrendForce spot Oct 23: DDR5 16Gb $61.27 (+0.27%), a new high; DDR4 16Gb $82.87 (-0.30%); DDR4 8Gb $47.11 (+0.23%). Public contract table still 2H Aug. Lam (Oct 21-22): supply-chain constraints held back its Dec-quarter guide and persist into 2027./bullish -> TrendForce spot Oct 26: DDR5 16Gb $61.33 (+0.11%), another high; DDR4 16Gb $82.62 (-0.30%); DDR4 8Gb $47.00 (-0.23%). Public contract table still 2H Aug. BofA (Oct 26) kept Micron at Buy, expecting tight memory supply in 2027-28./bullish - capex_vs_backlog: Meta Q3 (Oct 21): capex $34.9B; 2026 guide $135-145B; free cash flow -$2.1B. Supermicro pre-announced Sep-qtr revenue $18.5-19.5B vs $14.5-15.5B guide on 'increased demand for AI platforms'. MSFT, GOOGL report Oct 28, AMZN Oct 29 (US time)./neutral -> Meta (Oct 26) launched a stock raise of up to $95B ($35B now, $60B at-the-market from Q1 2027) to fund AI build-outs, after Q3 capex of $34.9B and free cash flow of -$2.1B; 2026 capex guide $135-145B. MSFT, GOOGL report Oct 28, AMZN Oct 29 (US time)./neutral - neocloud_credit: CoreWeave 9.75% 2031 notes ~79c (yield near 16%) and 9.625% notes 77.5c in the week to Oct 23 (PitchBook), down from ~80.6c on Oct 20. CDS last ~1,082bp (Oct 19); record 1,194.5bp. Nebius took a 364-day $3.5B Citi facility. Huang: neoclouds lack working capital./bearish -> CoreWeave 9.75% 2031 notes ~79c (yield near 16%) and 9.625% notes 77.5c in the week to Oct 23 (PitchBook). CDS last ~1,082bp (Oct 19). Oct 25-26: Musk said debt markets have 'almost entirely shut off' for AI-only clouds; CRWV fell up to 4.5% pre-open near its $53.50 low; Raymond James ($75), Morgan Stanley ($70), UBS ($105) cut targets./bearish - nvidia_dc: Huang (GTC Berlin / CNBC, Oct 21-22): demand 'strong' but neoclouds lack working capital; wants GPUs to be a 'financeable asset' banks lend against. NVDA fell about 4% Oct 22 as the chip index dropped 6.7% on Lam's supply warning. Rubin in full production; Google Cloud Rubin GA next month./bullish -> Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom indicated non-binding interest (Oct 26) in buying up to $5B of Meta's new stock, on top of Huang's Oct 21-22 call to make GPUs a 'financeable asset' for cash-short neoclouds. Rubin in full production; Google Cloud Rubin GA next month./bullish ## Calendar changes - added 2026-11-10 MACRO US CPI, October 2026 (BLS) ## New news (12) - 2026-10-26 [positive] ANTHROPIC: Anthropic publicly files S-1 for Nasdaq IPO under ticker ANT - H1 2026 revenue was $16.3B, up 1,300% year on year. The net loss was $80.7B, mostly non-cash charges on financing instruments. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley lead the deal, and reports put the valuation at $1.5-2T with listing in mid-November. <https://www.anthropic.com/news/s1-sec> - 2026-10-26 [neutral] NVDA: Anthropic S-1: about $3.1B a month to SpaceX for Nvidia-GPU compute - The filing commits up to $120.5B into 2029 for SpaceX compute on Nvidia GPUs, plus deals with Microsoft, Nscale and Lambda. Meanwhile neoclouds Nvidia backs are down 30%+ in October, which tests its $36B in off-balance-sheet backstops. <https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/26/anthropic-ipo-live-updates-ai-s-1-filing.html> - 2026-10-26 [negative] META: Meta launches $35B equity offering to fund AI buildout - The offering is $22.5B of Class A stock via forward sales plus $12.5B of mandatory convertible preferred. A further ~$60B non-voting Class C at-the-market program is planned from Q1 2027. Shares swung from -4% to +1% premarket. <https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/meta-falls-as-it-launches-35-billion-equity-offering-to-fund-ai-buildout-4972118> - 2026-10-26 [negative] MACRO: Lula wins Brazil runoff; Brazil ADRs plunge - Lula won about 51.8% to 48.2% for a fourth term, and Flavio Bolsonaro says he will challenge the result. The Brazil ETF fell more than 27% premarket, Petrobras about 22% and MercadoLibre about 11%. <https://www.riotimesonline.com/brazil-runoff-october-25-2026-flavio-bolsonaro-lula/> - 2026-10-26 [neutral] FED: Futures price ~91% hold at Oct 27-28 FOMC, ~80% December hike - US futures rose Monday as Brent eased after Trump ruled out an immediate Iran strike. The 10-year is near 5%. The decision is due Thu 5am AEDT, followed by Warsh's press conference. <https://fxstreet.com/news/dow-jones-futures-rise-on-easing-middle-east-tensions-fed-rate-pause-bets-202610260846> - 2026-10-26 [negative] MELI: Lula wins Brazil runoff; MELI down 11.7% at the open - The electoral court declared Lula the winner with about 51.8% to 48.2%; Flavio Bolsonaro refused to concede and will seek annulment. MELI opened at $1,578 and traded at $1,598 early, from $1,810; Brazil ETFs and real futures fell about 10-19% overnight. <https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/lula-declared-winner-brazil-run-044823546.html> - 2026-10-26 [positive] SKHY: SK hynix weighs $12B special dividend from Kioxia gains - Dong-A Ilbo reported a KRW 16T (about $12B) special dividend could come with Q3 on Wednesday; the company has said only that a shareholder-return plan will be announced then. The ADR rose 3.3% early Monday. <https://www.koreaherald.com/article/10914252> - 2026-10-26 [neutral] SKHY: KOSPI falls 1.46% to 5,469 before chip earnings; SK hynix flat - Foreign investors sold KRW 696B of Korean shares; SK hynix closed down 0.16% at KRW 1.28M after an early rally faded, and Samsung fell 1.16%. <https://www.koreajoongangdaily.com/business/kospi-falls-146-before-samsung-sk-hynix-earnings/12939040> - 2026-10-26 [neutral] META: Meta plans up to $95B stock raise for AI build-out; Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom may buy - Meta launched $35B of underwritten common and mandatory convertible offerings, with a $60B at-the-market programme from Q1 2027; its first new stock since 2013. Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom indicated non-binding interest in up to $5B. <https://www.tipranks.com/news/meta-launches-95-billion-stock-offering-plan-to-fund-ai-expansion-nvidia-amd-and-broadcom-weigh-5-billion-purchase> - 2026-10-26 [negative] CRWV: Musk says debt markets have shut on neoclouds; CoreWeave near 52-week low - Elon Musk posted that debt financing has 'almost entirely shut off' for firms without revenue outside AI data centres and predicted neocloud failures. CoreWeave fell up to 4.5% pre-open; Raymond James, Morgan Stanley and UBS cut targets. <https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/why-is-coreweave-stock-sliding-today-93CH-4972132> - 2026-10-26 [negative] SE: New Street cuts Sea to Neutral, $70 target; shares at a new low - Sea fell 3.5% early to $71.99, a new 52-week low, after the downgrade, extending the slide since its Oct 20 Sea Cloud memo. <https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/se/> - 2026-10-26 [neutral] VRT: Vertiv completes King Environmental Services purchase - The deal adds fluid-management services for high-density data centres across Europe, the Middle East and Africa, two days before Q3 results. <https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/vrt/> ## Notes Delta run 13h after the last one; US prices are Monday intraday ~09:40 ET. Prices are Yahoo chart API intraday quotes from 13:38 UTC Mon Oct 26, a few minutes after the US open. Moves are % vs Fri Oct 23 close. Indices: S&P 7,662 (+0.5%), Nasdaq 26,089 (+0.5%), 10y 4.99%, Brent $110.44 (-5.4% vs Fri). Asia Mon closes: Nikkei 62,190 (-0.8%), Hang Seng 23,212 (+0.5%), Kospi 5,469 (-1.5%), ASX 200 8,810. Micron Taoyuan talks are scheduled for Oct 27 Taiwan time; no outcome yet, and the dispute is unresolved after the Oct 22-23 24-hour strike (Taichung settled). OpenAI's $30B at $1.25T is not closed; signatures are sought this week. No new Stripe, Cursor, BYD, HOOD, Apple, NET or SPOT items found since Oct 26 00:30 UTC; Spotify -1.7%, HOOD -1.7%, Apple -1.1% at the open. Other news not used: Musk's post that SpaceX secured $40B of GPU debt and that 200+ neoclouds could fail (CoreWeave -5% premarket). Not verified: the Anthropic valuation ($1.5-2T) and timing (week of Nov 9 or Nov 16) come from WSJ/Bloomberg reports, not the S-1. The S-1 price range is blank. | Prices are Mon Oct 26 US intraday (~9:36-9:39am ET, StockAnalysis); Keyence is the Oct 26 Tokyo close converted at ~157.0 JPY/USD (FXStreet range 156.7-157.2). Celestica Q3 not yet released at time of research (due after US close; ~07:00 AEDT Tue Oct 27). Silicon Data indices unchanged since Oct 25 (MI300X 2.76, B300 7.52 are rounding noise), Treasury par yields for Oct 26 not yet published, no new power/PJM news, so h100_rental, b200_rental, hopper_residual, dc_cost_per_gw and power_bottleneck are re-emitted as is. CoreWeave bond yields: Benzinga reported a record 15.76% on the 2031s but the article date could not be verified (403), so the PitchBook ~79c figure was kept. MELI kept at accumulate/medium: the election risk played out but the business thesis is intact; Q3 date (Nov 4) still provisional, some calendars wrongly show Oct 28. SE hit a new low after a New Street downgrade (source: StockAnalysis news feed; no primary note found). CoreWeave Q3 added as an estimated, unconfirmed calendar entry. Oil retreated Monday on reported Middle East de-escalation efforts after rising late last week.
Nothing here is financial advice. Holdings and opinions are my own; the "agent" sections are written by an automated research skill and may be wrong. Built 2026-10-26 13:44 UTC.