← research log

# Research run 2026-10-27T14:00 UTC

## What changed

- Chips rallied a second day on a $63B bank-and-Blackstone package for Anthropic's Broadcom chips; SOX up 2.8% Monday, 1.7% Tuesday.
- Nvidia is putting $3B into Meta's stock raise, now $37.5B; Meta is down 11% since Oct 21 on dilution.
- Celestica upgraded to accumulate/high: Q3 revenue up 83% and a first 2027 outlook of $40B, up 90%.
- Micron's Taoyuan union talks ended without a deal; next round Nov 6, no new strike called.
- Next, AEDT: Enphase and Robinhood ~7am Wed; Fed 5am Thu; Alphabet ~7am Thu; Amazon, Axos, Rocket ~7am Fri.

## Market summary

Chips led again: the SOX rose 2.8% Monday and another 1.7% at Tuesday's open after a $63B bank-and-Blackstone package to fund Broadcom gear for Anthropic, and Nvidia said it will put $3B into Meta's upsized stock sale. Monday closed with the S&P 500 up 0.7% to 7,677 and the Nasdaq up 0.8%; Tuesday Asia followed, with the Kospi up 3.8% and the Nikkei up 1.7%, and the S&P opened up 0.3%. The 10-yr yield sits near 5.0%, Brent eased to around $115, September durable goods rose 1.8% (1.7% expected), and futures price only about a 10% chance of a Fed hike this week. Micron's Taoyuan union talks ended with no deal and a third round set for Nov 6, so no new strike yet. Next: Enphase and Robinhood results ~7am AEDT Wed, SK hynix results Wed, Apple Mac event 4am AEDT Thu, Fed decision 5am AEDT Thu, Alphabet ~7am AEDT Thu, Amazon/Axos/Rocket ~7am AEDT Fri.

## Holdings

- AMZN: hold - Up 1% since Monday's early read. Anthropic's S-1 shows a $110B AWS commitment through 2036 and 48% of its revenue running through cloud marketplaces. Results Friday AEDT.
- AXOS: hold - Flat, down 0.5% since Monday. No news. Results Thursday after close, ~7am AEDT Friday.
- BABA: watch - Flat Monday and Tuesday, down 4% since Oct 21. China's September industrial profits rose 14.4%, but nothing company-specific yet.
- ENPH: watch - Down 4% Monday ahead of Q3 results tonight. Consensus has sales down about 26% year on year. The guide decides the next move.
- FIGR: hold - Down 5.5% Monday and 12% since Oct 21 with no company news. Results due Nov 12. Watch for further slide.
- GOOGL: hold - Down 1% Monday as comm services lagged. Anthropic has committed at least $114.5B to Google cloud through 2033. Results Thursday 7am AEDT.
- LDI: hold - Flat since Monday, no news. Mortgage rates still tied to a 10-yr yield near 5%.
- META: hold - Down 2% Monday and 11% since Oct 21 on dilution. Nvidia is taking $3B of the upsized $37.5B raise and Meta is adding Vera Rubin capacity.
- MRVL: hold - Up 2% Monday and 2% more Tuesday as the $63B Broadcom-Anthropic financing lifted custom-silicon peers. Up 4% since the last run.
- MU: hold - Up 3% Monday and 1.5% Tuesday. Taoyuan union talks ended with no deal, next round Nov 6, no new strike called. SK hynix reports Wednesday.
- NFLX: watch - Down 3% Monday as the ad-revenue cut and a weak Q4 guide drew downgrades. Down 2% since the last run.
- NVDA: hold - Up 2.4% Monday and 1% Tuesday. It is investing $3B in Meta's stock sale, which some read as circular financing, and Meta is expanding Vera Rubin deployment.
- OPENAI: hold - The $30B round at $1.25T pre-money is reportedly near, but no close has been confirmed. Mark unchanged until it closes.
- RKT: hold - Down 1.6% since Monday with a 10-yr yield near 5%. Results Thursday after close, ~7am AEDT Friday.
- STRIPE: hold - No new priced round. Mark unchanged.
- TSM: hold - Up 1.4% Monday and 1.3% Tuesday with the chip rebound. Anthropic and Meta compute deals all run through its fabs.

## Watchlist changes

- CLS:US watch/medium -> accumulate/high

## Watchlist

- ALAB:US Astera Labs - watch (medium) - Astera Labs sells PCIe, CXL and Ethernet connectivity chips for AI racks; Q2 revenue was $392M (+105% y/y). It was $265.82 (+2.4%) early Tuesday Oct 27 as Celestica's $40B 2027 guide lifted AI hardware; still about 30% below the Oct 7 close of $382.25. No company news since Oct 12.
- AVGO:US Broadcom - accumulate (medium) - Broadcom supplies custom AI accelerators (Google, Meta, OpenAI, Anthropic) plus Ethernet networking and VMware. On Oct 26 BofA, Citi, Morgan Stanley and Blackstone lined up $63B for a vehicle that buys Broadcom chips and networking and leases them to Anthropic, deliveries from 2027. DA Davidson upgraded to Buy ($400). AVGO was $341.90 (+3.9%) early Tuesday.
- CLS:US Celestica - accumulate (high) - Celestica builds 800G/1.6T networking switches, servers and storage for hyperscalers. Q3 revenue was $5.83B (+83%) and adjusted EPS $3.30 (guide $2.88-3.08); CCS +102%. 2026 raised to $21.0B / $11.55 EPS, and the first 2027 outlook is $40B revenue (+90%), $21.50 EPS and a 9.0% margin, against consensus near $35.7B. The stock was $272.20 (+10.4%) early Tuesday, about 12.7x the 2027 EPS guide. Upgraded to accumulate, conviction high.
- CRDO:US Credo Technology - watch (low) - Credo sells active electrical cables (AECs), optical DSPs and retimers; fiscal Q1 2027 revenue was $479M (+115% y/y). It fell 19.2% over Oct 22-23 after MaxLinear said it will target 20-30% of 1.6T AECs, and was $158.88 (+5.1%) early Tuesday Oct 27 in the Celestica-led rebound, with no company news. Conviction stays low until fiscal Q2 shows the 1.6T ramp.
- SKHY:US SK hynix ADR - buy (high) - SK hynix is the leading HBM supplier to Nvidia and the number-two DRAM maker. Seoul shares closed Oct 27 at KRW 1,341,000 (+5.18%) as the KOSPI rose 3.09% and foreigners net bought KRW 836B, a rally credited to Anthropic's IPO filing. Korean press report a KRW 50-60T (about $38-45B) buyback and dividend package, including a possible KRW 16T special dividend from Kioxia gains; the company says only that a plan comes with Q3. ADR $145.62 (+2.1%) early Tuesday US.
- BE:US Bloom Energy - accumulate (medium) - Bloom makes solid-oxide fuel cells for onsite data-centre power. Q3 revenue was a record $1.236B (+138% y/y), adjusted EPS $0.94 vs $0.69, and 2026 guidance was raised to $4.4-4.6B. After falling 19% over Oct 22-23 it has rebounded: $221.07 (+8.4%) early Tuesday Oct 27, about 15% above the Oct 23 close, with Barclays raising its target to $316.
- GEV:US GE Vernova - accumulate (high) - GE Vernova builds gas turbines, grid equipment and wind for the power build-out; Q2 orders rose 88% y/y and backlog is $176B. It was $881.20 (+3.1%) early Tuesday Oct 27, up 8% from the Oct 23 close of $815 into Wednesday's Q3. The new executive order on wind-turbine imports could favour it over foreign turbine makers. BofA's Q3 preview (orders about +44% y/y) stands.
- VRT:US Vertiv - accumulate (medium) - Vertiv sells power, thermal and liquid-cooling gear for data centres; it guided Q3 sales to $3.65-3.85B and FY26 EPS to $6.65-6.75. On Oct 27 it closed the $1.45B cash purchase of UtilityInnovation Group (microgrid controls, behind-the-meter power; up to $1.15B more in earnout, about 13x 2027 EBITDA, accretive in year one), a day after closing King Environmental. VRT was $207.43 (+3.8%) early Tuesday.
- HOOD:US Robinhood - accumulate (medium) - Robinhood is a retail brokerage adding prediction markets, perpetual futures and Robinhood Agents; Q2 revenue was $1.31B (+32%). Consensus for Q3 is about $1.44B revenue and $0.56 EPS. Preliminary September data to Sep 24 showed about $267B equity volume, 234M options contracts and 4.4B event contracts. It announced a stablecoin partnership with Ripple (RLUSD) on Oct 27 and was $95.25 (+2.6%) early that day, before results after the close.
- MELI:US MercadoLibre - accumulate (medium) - MercadoLibre runs Latin America's largest marketplace, logistics network and Mercado Pago; Q2 net revenue was $10.2B (+50% y/y) while operating income fell 17%. It fell 7.8% to $1,668.72 on Oct 26 after Lula's runoff win; Citi upgraded it to Buy on Oct 27 ($2,050 target), calling the selloff an entry point, and it was $1,711.00 (+2.5%) early that day.
- NET:US Cloudflare - accumulate (high) - Cloudflare runs a global edge network selling security, CDN, zero-trust and the Workers developer platform; Q2 revenue was $696M (+36%) and it guided Q3 to $736-737M. It was $331.00 early Tuesday Oct 27, near flat, holding the Oct 22-24 cybersecurity rally while chips rebounded.
- SE:US Sea Limited - watch (low) - Sea runs Shopee, Monee (digital finance) and Garena across Southeast Asia and Brazil; Q2 revenue was $7.79B (+48%). New Street cut it to Neutral ($70) on Oct 26 after the Oct 20 Sea Cloud launch; it was $74.26 early Oct 27, about 3% above the Oct 26 low. Q3 date confirmed Oct 27 for Nov 10.
- 6861:JP Keyence - buy (high) - Keyence sells machine-vision, sensors and measurement gear direct to factories with industry-leading margins and no debt. It closed Oct 27 at JPY 79,080 (+2.3%, about US$502 at 157.4), recovering the Oct 26 dip, two days before fiscal Q2. Lam's record quarter and supply-constrained guide point to continued fab spending, a core end market.
- ASML:US ASML Holding - buy (high) - ASML is the only supplier of EUV lithography tools; Q3 sales were a record EUR 11.66B and it guided 2026 to EUR 44-45B, saying 2027-28 supply will not fully meet demand. The ADR fell 6.9% on Oct 22 after Lam warned of supply limits into 2027 and was $1,605.19 (+1.0%) early Tuesday Oct 27. Demand is not the issue.
- TER:US Teradyne - watch (medium) - Teradyne makes test equipment for AI accelerators, HBM and mobile chips, plus Universal Robots; Q3 guidance is $1.20-1.30B revenue and $1.85-2.15 EPS (consensus about $1.26B and $2.05-2.08). It fell 10.6% on Oct 22 and was $314.74 (+1.9%) early Tuesday Oct 27, hours before results. Options priced a move of about 13%.

## Bellwether changes

- h100_rental: Silicon Data SDH100RT $2.89/hr on Oct 25, a new high (+6.2% 7d), up 3c from $2.86 on Oct 21. H200 $3.47 (+3.9%), A100 $1.56 (+0.6%), MI300X $2.75 (+5.0%). CME H100/B200 futures: CFTC review still runs to Nov 9, no listing./bullish -> Silicon Data SDH100RT $2.89/hr on Oct 26 (+7.0% 7d), unchanged from the Oct 25 record. H200 $3.41, A100 $1.56, MI300X $2.76. CME H100/B200 futures: CFTC review still runs to Nov 9, no listing./bullish
- b200_rental: Silicon Data B200 $6.60 on Oct 25 (+12.4% 7d), a new high, up 46c from $6.14; B300 $7.53 (+10.7% 7d), up 51c. B200/H100 ratio 2.28x (6.60/2.89), up from 2.15x. Both well above the $4.50 and 2x triggers./bullish -> Silicon Data B200 $6.63 on Oct 26 (+12.9% 7d), a new high, up 3c; B300 $7.56 (+11.5% 7d), up 3c. B200/H100 ratio 2.29x (6.63/2.89). Both well above the $4.50 and 2x triggers./bullish
- hopper_residual: A100 index $1.56 Oct 25 (+0.6% 7d; trigger $1.50), up 1c, six cents above the floor. H200 $3.47. Silicon Data residual study (Jan 30 data): used H100 ~65-75% of new at 2 yrs, 45-55% at 3 yrs. No GPU useful-life cut or Hopper impairment reported so far in Q3 results./bullish -> A100 index $1.56 Oct 26 (+0.6% 7d; trigger $1.50), flat, six cents above the floor. H200 $3.41. Silicon Data residual study (Jan 30 data): used H100 ~65-75% of new at 2 yrs, 45-55% at 3 yrs. No GPU useful-life cut or Hopper impairment reported so far in Q3 results./bullish
- dc_cost_per_gw: 10-yr Treasury par yield 5.00% on Oct 23, down 13bp from 5.13% Oct 21 (4.96% Oct 22, lowest this month); 2-yr 4.69%, down 12bp. Build cost unchanged near $50B per GW (Huang, Oct 21)./neutral -> 10-yr Treasury par yield 5.00% on Oct 26, unchanged from Oct 23 (4.96% Oct 22, lowest this month); 2-yr 4.68%, down 1bp. Build cost unchanged near $50B per GW (Huang, Oct 21)./neutral
- memory_prices: TrendForce spot Oct 26: DDR5 16Gb $61.33 (+0.11%), another high; DDR4 16Gb $82.62 (-0.30%); DDR4 8Gb $47.00 (-0.23%). Public contract table still 2H Aug. BofA (Oct 26) kept Micron at Buy, expecting tight memory supply in 2027-28./bullish -> TrendForce spot Oct 27: DDR5 16Gb $61.33 (0.00%), at its high; DDR4 16Gb $82.62 (0.00%); DDR4 8Gb $47.04 (+0.09%). Public contract table still 2H Aug. SK hynix reports Q3 at 11:00 AEDT Oct 28./bullish
- capex_vs_backlog: Meta (Oct 26) launched a stock raise of up to $95B ($35B now, $60B at-the-market from Q1 2027) to fund AI build-outs, after Q3 capex of $34.9B and free cash flow of -$2.1B; 2026 capex guide $135-145B. MSFT, GOOGL report Oct 28, AMZN Oct 29 (US time)./neutral -> Meta upsized the common part of its raise to $25B (up to $37.5B with depositary shares; $60B more in 2027), and Nvidia committed $3B. Broadcom and banks lined up $63B to fund chips leased to Anthropic from 2027. MSFT, GOOGL report Oct 28, AMZN Oct 29 (US time)./neutral
- neocloud_credit: CoreWeave 9.75% 2031 notes ~79c (yield near 16%) and 9.625% notes 77.5c in the week to Oct 23 (PitchBook). CDS last ~1,082bp (Oct 19). Oct 25-26: Musk said debt markets have 'almost entirely shut off' for AI-only clouds; CRWV fell up to 4.5% pre-open near its $53.50 low; Raymond James ($75), Morgan Stanley ($70), UBS ($105) cut targets./bearish -> CoreWeave five-year CDS 1,148bp on Oct 26 (S&P Global), off a 12-month peak of 1,167bp on Oct 22 and up from 835bp a month earlier; implies about a 62% five-year default probability. 9.75% 2031 notes ~79c (yield near 16%) in the week to Oct 23. Q3 date not announced./bearish
- nvidia_dc: Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom indicated non-binding interest (Oct 26) in buying up to $5B of Meta's new stock, on top of Huang's Oct 21-22 call to make GPUs a 'financeable asset' for cash-short neoclouds. Rubin in full production; Google Cloud Rubin GA next month./bullish -> Nvidia committed $3B (Oct 27) to Meta's stock offering, turning last week's non-binding interest into a purchase, alongside Meta expanding Vera Rubin and Vera CPU deployment. Rubin in full production; Google Cloud Rubin GA next month. GTC Washington keynote Dec 1./bullish

## Calendar changes

- 2026-11-10-se-q3: 2026-11-10 TBC (estimated date) -> 2026-11-10 Before US open Tue; call 07:30 ET (23:30 AEDT Tue Nov 10)

## New news (12)

- 2026-10-27 [neutral] META: Nvidia takes $3B of Meta's upsized equity raise, expands Muse and Vera Rubin deal - Meta upsized its common offering to $25B from $22.5B, up to $37.5B with depositary shares, and Nvidia will invest $3B. Meta will deploy more Nvidia Vera Rubin, Vera CPUs and networking for its Muse agents. <https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/nvidia-to-invest-3-bln-in-meta-share-offering-as-part-of-bigger-ai-partnership-4974236>
- 2026-10-26 [positive] GOOGL: Anthropic S-1: 48% of revenue via Google, Amazon, Microsoft clouds; $114.5B Google commitment - Anthropic sold 48% of its first-half revenue through cloud marketplaces, up from 11% in 2023, and committed at least $114.5B to Google through 2033 and $110B to Amazon through 2036. Q2 sales were $11.6B with a $974M operating profit. <https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/anthropic-relies-on-google-amazon-and-microsoft-for-nearly-half-its-revenue-4973358>
- 2026-10-27 [neutral] MU: Micron Taoyuan union talks end without a deal; third round set for Nov 6 - The second session with the Taoyuan union on Oct 27 produced no agreement, and the city labour bureau set a third round for Nov 6. No further strike has been announced since the 24-hour warning strike on Oct 22. <https://ec.ltn.com.tw/article/breakingnews/5620640>
- 2026-10-27 [positive] MACRO: Chips extend rally; Kospi up 3.8%, Nikkei up 1.7% on Anthropic IPO optimism - SK hynix rose 7.1% and Samsung 5.2%, and the Kospi triggered a buy-side sidecar. The S&P 500 opened up 0.3% Tuesday after Monday's 0.7% gain. <https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/26/stock-market-today-live-updates.html>
- 2026-10-27 [neutral] FED: Fed meeting begins; futures price about 10% chance of a hike - Hold expected despite hot inflation, decision Wednesday 2pm ET (Thursday 5am AEDT). Traders will watch for a December hike signal. <https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/live/stock-market-today-tuesday-october-27-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-081901995.html>
- 2026-10-26 [positive] CLS: Celestica beats Q3 and guides 2027 revenue to $40B - Q3 revenue $5.83B (+83%) and adjusted EPS $3.30 topped guidance; 2026 raised to $21.0B, and 2027 guided to $40B revenue and $21.50 EPS. Shares were up about 10% early Tuesday. <https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001030894/000103089426000049/cls-20260930prcondensedfs.htm>
- 2026-10-26 [positive] AVGO: Banks and Blackstone line up $63B to finance Broadcom chips for Anthropic - A new vehicle will buy Broadcom accelerators and networking and lease them to Anthropic from 2027; about $43.5B is senior debt and Broadcom provides residual-value support to lenders. <https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/wall-street-banks-blackstone-line-up-63-billion-to-finance-broadcom-chips-for-anthropic-4973662>
- 2026-10-27 [positive] SKHY: SK hynix up 5.2% in Seoul on eve of Q3 and return plan - Shares closed at KRW 1,341,000 as the KOSPI rose 3.09% and foreigners net bought KRW 836B, a rally credited to Anthropic's IPO filing; Korean press report a KRW 50-60T return package, unconfirmed. <https://www.mt.co.kr/en/stock/2026/10/27/2026102716110627181>
- 2026-10-27 [positive] VRT: Vertiv closes $1.45B UtilityInnovation Group purchase - Adds microgrid controls and behind-the-meter power systems for AI data centres, with up to $1.15B more in earnout; expected to add to adjusted EPS in year one. <https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001674101/000162828026067393/exhibit991vrt-q42026102720.htm>
- 2026-10-27 [positive] MELI: Citi upgrades MercadoLibre to Buy after election selloff - Citi moved to Buy from Neutral with a $2,050 target, a day after the stock fell 7.8% on Lula's win. <https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/analyst-mercadolibre-nasdaq-meli-upgraded-at-citigroup-2026-10-27/>
- 2026-10-27 [neutral] SE: Sea sets Q3 results for Nov 10 - Results before the US open on Nov 10 with a call at 7:30am ET (23:30 AEDT). <https://www.financialcontent.com/article/bizwire-2026-10-27-sea-limited-to-report-third-quarter-2026-results>
- 2026-10-26 [negative] CRWV: CoreWeave five-year CDS at 1,148bp, off an Oct 22 peak of 1,167bp - S&P Global data imply about a 62% five-year default probability, versus 835bp a month earlier. <https://www.tradingview.com/news/benzinga:595e6852b094b:0-coreweave-debt-fears-hit-a-record-some-are-whispering-lehman/>

## Notes

Prices are Tuesday early intraday ~09:40 ET. Dropped an unconfirmed Anthropic roadshow date. Prices are Yahoo chart API quotes at Tue Oct 27 13:38 UTC (9:38am ET, first minutes of trading). Monday % moves use Yahoo's Monday closes. The Meta offering per-share price is deliberately not shown. OpenAI round not confirmed closed (an unverified OODAloop brief claims a close), so mark kept at 5.43; Stripe has no round, kept at 2.27. No Anthropic price range or roadshow date found yet. HOOD reports today after close (5pm ET call, confirmed by Robinhood IR via GlobeNewswire). Conference Board consumer confidence was due 10am ET, after this snapshot (80.5 expected). Brent: CNBC had it around $115.8 early Tuesday, while Yahoo's BZ=F showed 110.22, probably a different contract month, so I used 'around $115'. Brazil: Flavio Bolsonaro is seeking annulment but the legal route is unclear; Brazil stocks rallied Monday. Nothing material and new found for AXOS, RKT, LDI, TSM, BABA, FIGR, NET, SPOT, BYD (Q3 Oct 29), Cursor or Stripe. Apple event: Gurman expects an OLED touchscreen MacBook Pro, plus iMac and iPad mini, but Apple has not confirmed it. Love moves: HOOD down 2.3% Monday and up 2.9% Tuesday, NET up 1.9% Monday, SPOT down 2% Monday, AAPL down 1.1% Monday. | As of ~13:40 UTC Oct 27 (early US session). Teradyne and Robinhood Q3 not yet out (after close); SK hynix (11:00 AEDT Oct 28), GEV and VRT (Oct 28 pre-open) and Keyence (Oct 29) pending. CLS upgraded watch->accumulate and medium->high on the 2027 guide ($40B, $21.50 EPS, ~12.7x). No adds or removals. Keyence converted at 157.44 JPY/USD (open.er-api.com, Oct 27 00:02 UTC). CoreWeave Q3 date not announced; Alibaba (est. Nov 24) and Marvell (early Dec) fall outside the window; Nvidia GTC DC keynote is Dec 1 (outside window). MELI: IR page still says Nov 4 provisional while StockAnalysis shows Nov 10, so the existing entry is kept. Treasury Oct 27 yields not yet published. Holdings prices not written.

Nothing here is financial advice. Holdings and opinions are my own; the "agent" sections are written by an automated research skill and may be wrong. Built 2026-10-27 13:47 UTC.