# Research run 2026-10-29T04:45 UTC ## What changed - Alphabet Cloud grew 103%, but an investment loss and negative free cash flow sent it down about 10% after hours. - Fed held at 3.75-4% on a 10-2 vote, two wanting a hike; 10-yr back at 5.05%. - Memory rallied on SK hynix's record quarter: Micron up 5.9%. - Enphase fell 16% on a weak Q4 guide; take moved to watch. - GE Vernova orders up 96% to about $29B; buyback doubled to $20B. - Next, AEDT: Amazon, Axos, Rocket results ~7am Fri. ## Market summary The Fed held at 3.75-4.00% on Oct 28 in a 10-2 vote, with Cook and Hammack wanting a hike; Warsh would not commit on December. The curve steepened: 2-yr 4.67% (-3bp), 10-yr 5.05% (+6bp), with US crude near $101.5 on Iran concerns. The S&P 500 rose 0.28% and the Nasdaq 100 0.55%, led by memory after SK hynix's record quarter (Micron +5.9%) and Vertiv +16.6% on orders more than doubling. AI capex keeps climbing: Alphabet spent $51.4B in Q3 and fell about 10% after hours on an earnings miss, while Microsoft (capex $45.2B, Azure +48%) rose about 5%. Enphase fell 16.0% on a weak Q4 guide; China markets were not checked. Next: Amazon, Axos, Rocket ~7am AEDT Fri. ## Holdings - AMZN: hold - Reports Q3 on Oct 29. After Alphabet's cash-flow-driven drop, AWS growth and capex funding will set the reaction. No change before the print. - AXOS: hold - No new company news this window. The Fed held at 3.75-4% and a December hike is expected, which keeps funding costs elevated but stable for the bank. - BABA: hold - No material new news found this window. Thesis unchanged. - ENPH: watch - Q3 revenue was flat sequentially and down 29% y/y. Sell-through grew 1% against a 10% plan, and Q4 guide implies a further 13-23% fall. Data-center power is a 2028 story. - FIGR: hold - No new company news found this window. Thesis unchanged. - GOOGL: hold - Cloud revenue grew 103% with a 36% margin, but an $8.7B equity loss cut EPS and free cash flow went negative. Shares fell about 10% after hours. - LDI: hold - The Fed held and 30-year mortgage rates sit near 7.3-7.4%, a two-year high, while applications fell for seven straight weeks. A soft origination backdrop. - META: hold - No new results this window. Alphabet's negative free cash flow keeps attention on Meta's capex outrunning operating cash flow last quarter. - MRVL: hold - No company-specific news this window. Chips are mixed, with memory leading on SK Hynix's record profit. - MU: hold - Rose about 6% on Oct 28 after SK Hynix posted a record quarterly profit, which confirms tight memory pricing. - NFLX: hold - No material new news found this window. - NVDA: hold - Down about 1% on Oct 28. Alphabet's Cloud up 103% and unchanged hyperscaler capex plans support demand, though investors are now questioning how the spend is funded. - OPENAI: hold - OpenAI cut its funding-round target to $1.25T pre-money from $1.4T after investor pushback, with commitments due Oct 30. Not yet closed, so the last mark is still $852B (TechCrunch). - RKT: watch - Mortgage rates are near a two-year high and MBA applications have fallen seven weeks in a row. The Fed held and signalled no relief, with a December hike expected. - STRIPE: hold - No new valuation reported this window. The OpenRouter deal (reported at about $7.5B) is still pending. - TSM: hold - Up about 0.4% on Oct 28. Hyperscaler capex plans remain intact, and Alphabet guided to a significant increase in 2027. ## Watchlist changes - SKHY:US buy/high -> accumulate/high - HOOD:US accumulate/medium -> watch/medium - TER:US watch/medium -> accumulate/medium ## Watchlist - ALAB:US Astera Labs - watch (medium) - Astera Labs sells PCIe, CXL and Ethernet connectivity chips for AI racks; Q2 revenue was $392M (+105% y/y). It was $265.82 (+2.4%) early Tuesday Oct 27 as Celestica's $40B 2027 guide lifted AI hardware; still about 30% below the Oct 7 close of $382.25. No company news since Oct 12. - AVGO:US Broadcom - accumulate (medium) - Broadcom supplies custom AI accelerators (Google, Meta, OpenAI, Anthropic) plus Ethernet networking and VMware. On Oct 26 BofA, Citi, Morgan Stanley and Blackstone lined up $63B for a vehicle that buys Broadcom chips and networking and leases them to Anthropic, deliveries from 2027. DA Davidson upgraded to Buy ($400). AVGO was $341.90 (+3.9%) early Tuesday. - CLS:US Celestica - accumulate (high) - Celestica builds 800G/1.6T networking switches, servers and storage for hyperscalers. Q3 revenue was $5.83B (+83%) and adjusted EPS $3.30 (guide $2.88-3.08); CCS +102%. 2026 raised to $21.0B / $11.55 EPS, and the first 2027 outlook is $40B revenue (+90%), $21.50 EPS and a 9.0% margin, against consensus near $35.7B. The stock was $272.20 (+10.4%) early Tuesday, about 12.7x the 2027 EPS guide. Upgraded to accumulate, conviction high. - CRDO:US Credo Technology - watch (low) - Credo sells active electrical cables (AECs), optical DSPs and retimers; fiscal Q1 2027 revenue was $479M (+115% y/y). It fell 19.2% over Oct 22-23 after MaxLinear said it will target 20-30% of 1.6T AECs, and was $158.88 (+5.1%) early Tuesday Oct 27 in the Celestica-led rebound, with no company news. Conviction stays low until fiscal Q2 shows the 1.6T ramp. - SKHY:US SK hynix - accumulate (high) - Q3 operating profit ~KRW 83.3T (+38% QoQ), revenue over KRW 100T for the first time, ~80% operating margin. HBM4 in full mass production and expected to overtake HBM3E in Q4. - BE:US Bloom Energy - accumulate (medium) - Bloom makes solid-oxide fuel cells for onsite data-centre power. Q3 revenue was a record $1.236B (+138% y/y), adjusted EPS $0.94 vs $0.69, and 2026 guidance was raised to $4.4-4.6B. After falling 19% over Oct 22-23 it has rebounded: $221.07 (+8.4%) early Tuesday Oct 27, about 15% above the Oct 23 close, with Barclays raising its target to $316. - GEV:US GE Vernova - accumulate (high) - Q3 orders ~$29.3B (+96% YoY), equipment orders +134%, backlog ~$197-200B. Full-year guidance raised on all key metrics; buyback lifted from $10B to $20B. Gas backlog 53 to 64 GW. - VRT:US Vertiv - accumulate (medium) - Vertiv sells power, thermal and liquid-cooling gear for data centres; it guided Q3 sales to $3.65-3.85B and FY26 EPS to $6.65-6.75. On Oct 27 it closed the $1.45B cash purchase of UtilityInnovation Group (microgrid controls, behind-the-meter power; up to $1.15B more in earnout, about 13x 2027 EBITDA, accretive in year one), a day after closing King Environmental. VRT was $207.43 (+3.8%) early Tuesday. - HOOD:US Robinhood Markets - watch (medium) - Record Q3 revenue of $1.42B (+12% YoY), slightly under consensus. Options revenue +31% to $399M, event contracts $173M (more than 6x). Net deposits $15.7B, funded customers 28.7M (+7%), Gold subscribers 5.2M. Top of the opex outlook cut by $25M. - MELI:US MercadoLibre - accumulate (medium) - MercadoLibre runs Latin America's largest marketplace, logistics network and Mercado Pago; Q2 net revenue was $10.2B (+50% y/y) while operating income fell 17%. It fell 7.8% to $1,668.72 on Oct 26 after Lula's runoff win; Citi upgraded it to Buy on Oct 27 ($2,050 target), calling the selloff an entry point, and it was $1,711.00 (+2.5%) early that day. - NET:US Cloudflare - accumulate (high) - Cloudflare runs a global edge network selling security, CDN, zero-trust and the Workers developer platform; Q2 revenue was $696M (+36%) and it guided Q3 to $736-737M. It was $331.00 early Tuesday Oct 27, near flat, holding the Oct 22-24 cybersecurity rally while chips rebounded. - SE:US Sea Limited - watch (low) - Sea runs Shopee, Monee (digital finance) and Garena across Southeast Asia and Brazil; Q2 revenue was $7.79B (+48%). New Street cut it to Neutral ($70) on Oct 26 after the Oct 20 Sea Cloud launch; it was $74.26 early Oct 27, about 3% above the Oct 26 low. Q3 date confirmed Oct 27 for Nov 10. - 6861:JP Keyence - buy (high) - Keyence sells machine-vision, sensors and measurement gear direct to factories with industry-leading margins and no debt. It closed Oct 27 at JPY 79,080 (+2.3%, about US$502 at 157.4), recovering the Oct 26 dip, two days before fiscal Q2. Lam's record quarter and supply-constrained guide point to continued fab spending, a core end market. - ASML:US ASML Holding - buy (high) - ASML is the only supplier of EUV lithography tools; Q3 sales were a record EUR 11.66B and it guided 2026 to EUR 44-45B, saying 2027-28 supply will not fully meet demand. The ADR fell 6.9% on Oct 22 after Lam warned of supply limits into 2027 and was $1,605.19 (+1.0%) early Tuesday Oct 27. Demand is not the issue. - TER:US Teradyne - accumulate (medium) - Q3 revenue $1,306M vs $769M a year ago; non-GAAP EPS $2.29. Semi Test $1,072M. Results came in above the top of guidance. ## Bellwether changes - h100_rental: Silicon Data SDH100RT $2.89/hr on Oct 26 (+7.0% 7d), unchanged from the Oct 25 record. H200 $3.41, A100 $1.56, MI300X $2.76. CME H100/B200 futures: CFTC review still runs to Nov 9, no listing./bullish -> Silicon Data SDH100RT $2.90/hr on Oct 28 (page shows +6.2% 7d; daily table Oct 21 $2.86 implies ~+1.4%), a new high, up 1c. H200 $3.47, A100 $1.56, MI300X $2.76. CME H100/B200 futures: CFTC review to Nov 9, no listing./bullish - b200_rental: Silicon Data B200 $6.63 on Oct 26 (+12.9% 7d), a new high, up 3c; B300 $7.56 (+11.5% 7d), up 3c. B200/H100 ratio 2.29x (6.63/2.89). Both well above the $4.50 and 2x triggers./bullish -> Silicon Data B200 $6.47 on Oct 28 (+10.0% 7d), down 16c from the Oct 26 high; B300 $7.56 (+9.2% 7d), flat. B200/H100 ratio 2.23x (6.47/2.90). Both above the $4.50 and 2x triggers./bullish - hopper_residual: A100 index $1.56 Oct 26 (+0.6% 7d; trigger $1.50), flat, six cents above the floor. H200 $3.41. Silicon Data residual study (Jan 30 data): used H100 ~65-75% of new at 2 yrs, 45-55% at 3 yrs. No GPU useful-life cut or Hopper impairment reported so far in Q3 results./bullish -> A100 index $1.56 Oct 28 (+0.6% 7d; trigger $1.50), flat, six cents above the floor. H200 $3.47. Silicon Data residual study (Jan 30 data): used H100 ~65-75% of new at 2 yrs, 45-55% at 3 yrs. No GPU useful-life cut reported in MSFT or GOOGL headlines Oct 28 (filings not read)./bullish - dc_cost_per_gw: 10-yr Treasury par yield 5.00% on Oct 26, unchanged from Oct 23 (4.96% Oct 22, lowest this month); 2-yr 4.68%, down 1bp. Build cost unchanged near $50B per GW (Huang, Oct 21)./neutral -> 10-yr Treasury par yield 5.05% on Oct 28, up 6bp from 4.99% Oct 27; 2-yr 4.67%, down 3bp. Curve steepened after the Fed hold. 30-yr about 5.36%. Build cost unchanged near $50B per GW (Huang, Oct 21)./neutral - memory_prices: TrendForce spot Oct 27: DDR5 16Gb $61.33 (0.00%), at its high; DDR4 16Gb $82.62 (0.00%); DDR4 8Gb $47.04 (+0.09%). Public contract table still 2H Aug. SK hynix reports Q3 at 11:00 AEDT Oct 28./bullish -> SK hynix Q3 (Oct 28): revenue above KRW 100T for the first time, operating margin about 80%; says memory demand outruns supply through 2030. MU +5.9% Oct 28. TrendForce spot Oct 27: DDR5 16Gb $61.33 (0.00%), DDR4 16Gb $82.62 (0.00%). Public contract table still 2H Aug./bullish - capex_vs_backlog: Meta upsized the common part of its raise to $25B (up to $37.5B with depositary shares; $60B more in 2027), and Nvidia committed $3B. Broadcom and banks lined up $63B to fund chips leased to Anthropic from 2027. MSFT, GOOGL report Oct 28, AMZN Oct 29 (US time)./neutral -> Alphabet Q3 capex $51.4B (more than double a year ago), Google Cloud revenue $30.7B (+103%); EPS and revenue missed, shares down about 9-11% after hours Oct 28. Microsoft capex $45.2B, Azure +48% vs 44.8% expected; shares up about 4-5% after hours. Amazon reports Oct 29 US time./neutral ## New news (11) - 2026-10-28 [negative] GOOGL: Alphabet Cloud revenue doubles, but an investment loss and negative free cash flow hit the stock - Q3 revenue rose 25% and Google Cloud rose 103% with operating margin at 36%. An $8.7B equity-securities loss cut EPS 26% y/y, quarterly free cash flow was -$9.1B, and shares fell about 10% after hours. <https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001652044/000165204426000080/googexhibit991q32026.htm> - 2026-10-28 [negative] MACRO: Fed holds at 3.75-4% in a 10-2 vote, two dissenters wanted a hike - Cook and Hammack dissented in favour of a quarter-point increase. Chair Warsh gave no forward guidance, and economists widely expect a December hike. <https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/28/fed-interest-rate-decision-october-2026.html> - 2026-10-27 [negative] ENPH: Enphase Q3 flat sequentially, Q4 guide points lower - Revenue was down 29% y/y, sell-through grew 1% against a 10% plan, and Europe fell 11%. Q4 guidance assumes sell-through down about 10% and gross margin of 40-43%. <https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001463101/000146310126000101/a2026q3exx991pressrelease.htm> - 2026-10-27 [negative] HOOD: Robinhood record revenue, but crypto slump sends shares down about 8% - Revenue rose 12% to a record $1.42B. Crypto revenue fell 55% y/y, GAAP EPS fell 16%, and Ohio issued a cease-and-desist over sports event contracts. <https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/27/robinhood-hood-q3-2026-earnings.html> - 2026-10-28 [positive] AAPL: Apple launches its first touchscreen Mac - The new MacBook Pro has a tandem-OLED touch display and M5 Pro/Max chips, starting at $2,899. Pre-orders are open and deliveries start Nov 6. <https://9to5mac.com/2026/10/28/apple-announces-redesigned-macbook-pro-its-first-touchscreen-mac/> - 2026-10-28 [positive] MU: Memory names rally on SK Hynix record profit - Micron rose about 6% after SK Hynix posted a record quarterly profit ahead of estimates. Nvidia slipped about 1%. <https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/micron-amd-nvidia-stocks-rise-183814387.html> - 2026-10-22 [neutral] OPENAI: OpenAI trims funding-round target to $1.25T - The target for a raise of up to $30B was cut from $1.4T after investor pushback. Commitments are due Oct 30, ahead of Anthropic's expected mid-November IPO. <https://techcrunch.com/2026/10/22/openai-working-on-new-30b-raise-at-1-25t-valuation-ahead-of-ipo/> - 2026-10-28 [positive] GEV: GE Vernova Q3 beats on orders; guidance up, buyback doubled, Trench deal - Orders ~$29.3B (+96%), backlog ~$197B, full-year guidance raised. Buyback authorisation up from $10B to $20B. Agreed to acquire Trench Group. <https://www.gevernova.com/news/articles/ge-vernova-releases-third-quarter-2026-financial-results-announces-agreement-acquire> - 2026-10-28 [positive] SKHY: SK hynix posts record Q3; HBM4 in full mass production - Operating profit ~KRW 83.3T (+38% QoQ), revenue over KRW 100T, ~80% margin. Net income down QoQ because Q2 included a one-off Kioxia gain. Shares rose after hours. <https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-sk-hynix-posts-record-q3-2026-results-shares-jump-after-hours-93CH-4977343> - 2026-10-27 [positive] TER: Teradyne Q3 revenue $1.31B, up 70% YoY, above guidance - Non-GAAP EPS $2.29. Semi Test $1,072M. Revenue slightly below Q2. <https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000097210/000119312526434981/ter-ex99_1.htm> - 2026-10-28 [neutral] FED: Fed holds at 3.75-4.00%, two dissents for a hike - 10-2 vote; Warsh says inflation too high but wants more data before December. 10-yr rose to 5.05%, 2-yr fell to 4.67%. <https://investinglive.com/news/investinglive-americas-fx-news-wrap-28-oct-fed-holds-rates-yield-curve-steepens-as-big-tech-earnings-diverge/> ## Notes Unchecked this run: China/BABA moves, SOX, most calendar dates (existing events kept, not re-verified), ALAB CRDO AVGO ASML only batch-searched, MELI SE not searched, CLS/NET/Keyence no new results found, Microsoft results via macro agent only. CNBC pages 403; some links confirmed by search results only. Watchlist prices null where unconfirmed.
Nothing here is financial advice. Holdings and opinions are my own; the "agent" sections are written by an automated research skill and may be wrong. Built 2026-10-29 04:26 UTC.