# Research run 2026-10-29T18:50 UTC ## What changed - Alphabet down about 13% intraday on the free cash flow miss, its worst day since the 2004 IPO. - Marvell down about 11% on reports it is in advanced talks to buy Lumentum; take moved to watch. - Samsung says 2027 HBM is sold out at agreed prices; chip operating profit KRW 106.5T. - US Q3 GDP grew 3.4% annualised; September PCE inflation 3.6% and rising. - Nasdaq down about 1.7% midday, chips almost 2%; 10-yr eased to 4.98%. - Next, AEDT: Amazon, Axos, Rocket results ~7am Fri. ## Market summary US Q3 GDP advance came in at a 3.4% annualised pace (Q2 2.2%), while headline PCE inflation rose to 3.6% y/y in September and sped up. The Nasdaq was down about 1% at 11:37 ET Thursday as Alphabet fell about 10% on a search and ad miss, with the S&P 500 and Dow slightly lower and Microsoft up about 3% on Azure. The 10-year yield eased to about 4.98% from 5.05% and Brent fell 2.1% to about $109. The ECB held its deposit rate at 2.50% and Lagarde said she will step down on Feb 7, 2027; markets lean to a December hike. Hang Seng fell 0.6% to 22,958.65. Midday read, not the close. Next: Amazon, Axos, Rocket results ~7am AEDT Fri; Apple Mon after close = Tue morning AEDT; RBA Tue 2:30pm AEDT. ## Holdings - AMZN: hold - Down about 4% intraday in the Alphabet-led tech selloff ahead of Q3 after today's close. Results not out at time of check. - AXOS: hold - Reports Q1 FY27 after today's close; results not out at time of check. No intraday move found. - BABA: hold - No company news found today; no intraday move confirmed. - ENPH: hold - No company news found today; no intraday move confirmed. - FIGR: hold - No company news found today; small caps firm, Russell 2000 up about 0.7-1.1% while Nasdaq fell. - GOOGL: hold - Down about 13% intraday, worst session since 2004 IPO: Q3 free cash flow negative on capex. Cloud grew 103%, so thesis intact; do not add into the slide yet. - LDI: watch - No company news found today; no intraday move confirmed. - META: hold - No intraday move confirmed; caught in AI-capex worries after Alphabet's negative free cash flow. - MRVL: watch - Down about 11% on reports of advanced talks to buy Lumentum; Lumentum up about 2%. Watch deal price and dilution. - MU: hold - Semis down with SOX off almost 2%; one report has Micron down nearly 4%. No company news. - NFLX: hold - No company news found today; no intraday move confirmed. - NVDA: hold - Slightly lower as SOX fell almost 2% on AI-capex jitters after Alphabet. No company news. - OPENAI: hold - No report found on the round commitments due Oct 30; last closed mark remains $852B from March. - RKT: hold - Reports Q3 after today's close; results not out at time of check. - STRIPE: hold - No new valuation or company news found. - TSM: hold - Semis down almost 2% as a group; KLAC beat-and-raise guided 2027 WFE above $200B, supportive for foundry spend. ## Watchlist - ALAB:US Astera Labs - watch (medium) - Astera Labs sells PCIe, CXL and Ethernet connectivity chips for AI racks; Q2 revenue was $392M (+105% y/y). It was $265.82 (+2.4%) early Tuesday Oct 27 as Celestica's $40B 2027 guide lifted AI hardware; still about 30% below the Oct 7 close of $382.25. No company news since Oct 12. - AVGO:US Broadcom - accumulate (medium) - Broadcom supplies custom AI accelerators (Google, Meta, OpenAI, Anthropic) plus Ethernet networking and VMware. On Oct 26 BofA, Citi, Morgan Stanley and Blackstone lined up $63B for a vehicle that buys Broadcom chips and networking and leases them to Anthropic, deliveries from 2027. DA Davidson upgraded to Buy ($400). AVGO was $341.90 (+3.9%) early Tuesday. - CLS:US Celestica - accumulate (high) - Celestica builds 800G/1.6T networking switches, servers and storage for hyperscalers. Q3 revenue was $5.83B (+83%) and adjusted EPS $3.30 (guide $2.88-3.08); CCS +102%. 2026 raised to $21.0B / $11.55 EPS, and the first 2027 outlook is $40B revenue (+90%), $21.50 EPS and a 9.0% margin, against consensus near $35.7B. The stock was $272.20 (+10.4%) early Tuesday, about 12.7x the 2027 EPS guide. Upgraded to accumulate, conviction high. - CRDO:US Credo Technology - watch (low) - Credo sells active electrical cables (AECs), optical DSPs and retimers; fiscal Q1 2027 revenue was $479M (+115% y/y). It fell 19.2% over Oct 22-23 after MaxLinear said it will target 20-30% of 1.6T AECs, and was $158.88 (+5.1%) early Tuesday Oct 27 in the Celestica-led rebound, with no company news. Conviction stays low until fiscal Q2 shows the 1.6T ramp. - SKHY:US SK hynix - accumulate (high) - Q3 operating profit ~KRW 83.3T (+38% QoQ), revenue over KRW 100T for the first time, ~80% operating margin. HBM4 in full mass production and expected to overtake HBM3E in Q4. - BE:US Bloom Energy - accumulate (medium) - Bloom makes solid-oxide fuel cells for onsite data-centre power. Q3 revenue was a record $1.236B (+138% y/y), adjusted EPS $0.94 vs $0.69, and 2026 guidance was raised to $4.4-4.6B. After falling 19% over Oct 22-23 it has rebounded: $221.07 (+8.4%) early Tuesday Oct 27, about 15% above the Oct 23 close, with Barclays raising its target to $316. - GEV:US GE Vernova - accumulate (high) - Q3 orders ~$29.3B (+96% YoY), equipment orders +134%, backlog ~$197-200B. Full-year guidance raised on all key metrics; buyback lifted from $10B to $20B. Gas backlog 53 to 64 GW. - VRT:US Vertiv - accumulate (medium) - Vertiv sells power, thermal and liquid-cooling gear for data centres; it guided Q3 sales to $3.65-3.85B and FY26 EPS to $6.65-6.75. On Oct 27 it closed the $1.45B cash purchase of UtilityInnovation Group (microgrid controls, behind-the-meter power; up to $1.15B more in earnout, about 13x 2027 EBITDA, accretive in year one), a day after closing King Environmental. VRT was $207.43 (+3.8%) early Tuesday. - HOOD:US Robinhood Markets - watch (medium) - Record Q3 revenue of $1.42B (+12% YoY), slightly under consensus. Options revenue +31% to $399M, event contracts $173M (more than 6x). Net deposits $15.7B, funded customers 28.7M (+7%), Gold subscribers 5.2M. Top of the opex outlook cut by $25M. - MELI:US MercadoLibre - accumulate (medium) - MercadoLibre runs Latin America's largest marketplace, logistics network and Mercado Pago; Q2 net revenue was $10.2B (+50% y/y) while operating income fell 17%. It fell 7.8% to $1,668.72 on Oct 26 after Lula's runoff win; Citi upgraded it to Buy on Oct 27 ($2,050 target), calling the selloff an entry point, and it was $1,711.00 (+2.5%) early that day. - NET:US Cloudflare - accumulate (high) - Cloudflare runs a global edge network selling security, CDN, zero-trust and the Workers developer platform; Q2 revenue was $696M (+36%) and it guided Q3 to $736-737M. It was $331.00 early Tuesday Oct 27, near flat, holding the Oct 22-24 cybersecurity rally while chips rebounded. - SE:US Sea Limited - watch (low) - Sea runs Shopee, Monee (digital finance) and Garena across Southeast Asia and Brazil; Q2 revenue was $7.79B (+48%). New Street cut it to Neutral ($70) on Oct 26 after the Oct 20 Sea Cloud launch; it was $74.26 early Oct 27, about 3% above the Oct 26 low. Q3 date confirmed Oct 27 for Nov 10. - 6861:JP Keyence - buy (high) - Keyence sells machine-vision, sensors and measurement gear direct to factories with industry-leading margins and no debt. It closed Oct 27 at JPY 79,080 (+2.3%, about US$502 at 157.4), recovering the Oct 26 dip, two days before fiscal Q2. Lam's record quarter and supply-constrained guide point to continued fab spending, a core end market. - ASML:US ASML Holding - buy (high) - ASML is the only supplier of EUV lithography tools; Q3 sales were a record EUR 11.66B and it guided 2026 to EUR 44-45B, saying 2027-28 supply will not fully meet demand. The ADR fell 6.9% on Oct 22 after Lam warned of supply limits into 2027 and was $1,605.19 (+1.0%) early Tuesday Oct 27. Demand is not the issue. - TER:US Teradyne - accumulate (medium) - Q3 revenue $1,306M vs $769M a year ago; non-GAAP EPS $2.29. Semi Test $1,072M. Results came in above the top of guidance. ## Calendar changes - added 2026-11-12 FIGR Figure Technology Solutions Q3 2026 results and call ## New news (6) - 2026-10-29 [negative] GOOGL: Alphabet falls 12-13%, biggest post-earnings drop on record - Q3 free cash flow came in at about -$9.1B versus about -$2.7B expected, overshadowing 103% Google Cloud growth. The drop dragged the Nasdaq down about 1.6%. <https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/live/stock-market-today-thursday-october-29-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-alphabet-microsoft-081708101.html> - 2026-10-29 [negative] MRVL: Marvell drops about 11% on reported talks to buy Lumentum - Reports say Marvell is in advanced talks to acquire Lumentum; Lumentum rose about 2%. <https://investrade.com/mid-morning-look-october-29-2026/> - 2026-10-29 [positive] 005930: Samsung confirms record KRW 107.4T Q3 operating profit; 2027 HBM sold out - Chip division earned KRW 106.5T on KRW 147.1T revenue; net profit missed estimates on a KRW 9.5T financing loss and shares slid. Read-through: firm HBM pricing for SKHY and MU. <https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/samsung-posts-record-quarterly-profit-014019876.html> - 2026-10-29 [neutral] ECB: ECB holds at 2.50%, Lagarde announces early exit - Deposit rate unchanged after September hike; inflation 3.8%. Lagarde leaves Feb 7, 2027. December hike widely expected. <https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/29/european-central-bank-interest-rates.html> - 2026-10-29 [negative] MACRO: US Q3 GDP +3.4%, September PCE inflation 3.6% y/y - Growth up from 2.2% in Q2 while inflation quickened; 10-year eased to about 4.98% as Brent fell 2.1% to about $109. <https://www.stocktitan.net/articles/stock-market-today-live-october-29-2026> - 2026-10-29 [negative] GOOGL: Alphabet falls about 10% on search and ad miss; Microsoft up about 3% - Nasdaq down about 1% late morning ET. Capex concern weighed on Alphabet; Azure beat lifted Microsoft. <https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/us-stock-futures-drop-as-alphabet-slides-on-soft-earnings-microsoft-firms-4981271> ## Notes Midday run (US market open), prices are snapshots. Not checked: indicators, close levels, core PCE, BYD Q3, Keyence H1, OpenAI Oct 30 commitments, Cursor, most watchlist names had no verified news. MRVL-Lumentum from Yahoo live blog and a morning note only.
Nothing here is financial advice. Holdings and opinions are my own; the "agent" sections are written by an automated research skill and may be wrong. Built 2026-10-29 18:39 UTC.