# Research run 2026-10-30T18:55 UTC ## What changed - Nasdaq down about 4% Friday midday on AI-spending fears, Intel's weak guide and oil above $100; VIX up 35%. - Amazon missed on EPS and revenue, but AWS grew 39%; 2027 capex to be meaningfully above $220B. - Alphabet closed Thursday down 12.6%, its worst day in over 20 years. - Marvell closed Thursday down 13% on a reported $83B all-stock bid for Lumentum; not confirmed. - Rocket revenue beat at $3.28B, but the Q4 guide is lower; Axos EPS up 16%. - Next: China PMI Saturday; Apple results Tue morning AEDT; RBA Tue 2:30pm AEDT. ## Market summary US stocks fell for a second day on Thu Oct 29: Nasdaq -1.4%, S&P 500 -0.3%, with Alphabet -12.6% after its spend-and-miss quarter. Friday's session is a broad AI sell-off: at 2pm ET the Nasdaq-100 ETF was -3.95% and the S&P 500 ETF -2.0%, led by Intel (about -30%) after a weak Q4 guide; Amazon recovered most of a 7% early drop to trade about -2%. Treasuries rallied, with the 10-year near 4.91-4.94% from about 4.98%. Brent rose about 2% to roughly $113-117 after an attack on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. The Bank of Japan held at 1.25% (8-1 vote) and signalled a December hike; the Nikkei fell 2.1%, and China's official October PMI is due Sat Oct 31 (consensus 50.0). Friday moves are intraday, not the close. Next: China PMI Sat; Apple Mon after close = Tue morning AEDT; RBA Tue 2:30pm AEDT. ## Holdings - AMZN: hold - Q3 EPS and revenue missed but AWS grew 39%, fastest in about five years. Shares fell 7% after hours and premarket; record -$42B trailing free cash flow worries the market. - AXOS: hold - FQ1 EPS up 16% YoY, NIM up 10bp QoQ, deposits up $848M. Adjusted EPS reportedly missed consensus; management guides faster loan growth in the Dec quarter. - BABA: hold - No company news found this window. China tech exposure; watch for AI capex sentiment spillover from the US selloff. - ENPH: hold - No new company news found since Oct 29. Rate-hike talk from Fed speakers is a headwind for residential solar financing. - FIGR: hold - No company news found this window. Crypto-linked names fell 6%+ premarket Friday after a reported $6.3B Binance hack and Bitcoin down 5%. - GOOGL: watch - Fell 12.6% Oct 29, worst day in 20+ years: EPS missed by 28%, search revenue light, free cash flow -$9.1B. Now 20%+ below its 52-week high. - LDI: hold - No company news found this window. Fed speakers flagging a possible December hike is negative for mortgage volumes. - META: hold - Down 20%+ from its 52-week high as the AI capex selloff spread Friday. No new company-specific news found this window. - MRVL: watch - Closed down 13% Oct 29 on reported all-stock talks to buy Lumentum (~$83B). No deal confirmed by either company. Dilution of 10%+ possible per Raymond James. - MU: hold - No company news found this window. Intel blamed weak PC demand on high memory prices, which supports pricing but signals demand risk. - NFLX: hold - No company news found this window. Less exposed to the AI capex selloff than other megacaps. - NVDA: hold - Fell with chips on fears hyperscalers overspend then cut in 2027; 12% below its 52-week high Friday. Amazon holding 2026 capex near $220B is supportive. - OPENAI: hold - Up to $30B round at $1.25T pre-money (cut from $1.4T) still open; commitments reportedly due Oct 30. No close announced, so no new mark. - RKT: hold - Q3 beat: revenue $3.28B vs $2.59B est, adj EPS $0.15 vs $0.14. Rose 3% Oct 29 and 3% after hours. Q4 guide of $2.1-2.3B is below Q3. - STRIPE: hold - No new news found this window. - TSM: hold - No company news found this window. Sold off with chips Friday on AI spending worries; Amazon capex plan intact. ## Watchlist - ALAB:US Astera Labs - watch (medium) - Astera Labs sells PCIe, CXL and Ethernet connectivity chips for AI racks; Q2 revenue was $392M (+105% y/y). It was $265.82 (+2.4%) early Tuesday Oct 27 as Celestica's $40B 2027 guide lifted AI hardware; still about 30% below the Oct 7 close of $382.25. No company news since Oct 12. - AVGO:US Broadcom - accumulate (medium) - Broadcom supplies custom AI accelerators (Google, Meta, OpenAI, Anthropic) plus Ethernet networking and VMware. On Oct 26 banks and Blackstone lined up $63B for a vehicle that buys Broadcom gear and leases it to Anthropic, deliveries from 2027. No company news since then. It fell about 3.7% premarket and nearly 5% in morning trade on Fri Oct 30 in the semis sell-off triggered by Intel's guide. Amazon kept 2026 capex at about $220B and said 2027 will be 'meaningfully more', so custom-silicon demand is intact. - CLS:US Celestica - accumulate (high) - Celestica builds 800G/1.6T networking switches, servers and storage for hyperscalers. Q3 revenue was $5.83B (+83%) and adjusted EPS $3.30 (guide $2.88-3.08); CCS +102%. 2026 raised to $21.0B / $11.55 EPS, and the first 2027 outlook is $40B revenue (+90%), $21.50 EPS and a 9.0% margin, against consensus near $35.7B. The stock was $272.20 (+10.4%) early Tuesday, about 12.7x the 2027 EPS guide. Upgraded to accumulate, conviction high. - CRDO:US Credo Technology - watch (low) - Credo sells active electrical cables (AECs), optical DSPs and retimers; fiscal Q1 2027 revenue was $479M (+115% y/y). It fell 19.2% over Oct 22-23 after MaxLinear said it will target 20-30% of 1.6T AECs, and was $158.88 (+5.1%) early Tuesday Oct 27 in the Celestica-led rebound, with no company news. Conviction stays low until fiscal Q2 shows the 1.6T ramp. - SKHY:US SK hynix - accumulate (high) - Q3 operating profit ~KRW 83.3T (+38% QoQ), revenue over KRW 100T for the first time, ~80% operating margin. HBM4 in full mass production and expected to overtake HBM3E in Q4. - BE:US Bloom Energy - accumulate (medium) - Bloom makes solid-oxide fuel cells for onsite data-centre power. Q3 revenue was a record $1.236B (+138% y/y), adjusted EPS $0.94 vs $0.69, and 2026 guidance was raised to $4.4-4.6B. After falling 19% over Oct 22-23 it has rebounded: $221.07 (+8.4%) early Tuesday Oct 27, about 15% above the Oct 23 close, with Barclays raising its target to $316. - GEV:US GE Vernova - accumulate (high) - Q3 orders ~$29.3B (+96% YoY), equipment orders +134%, backlog ~$197-200B. Full-year guidance raised on all key metrics; buyback lifted from $10B to $20B. Gas backlog 53 to 64 GW. - VRT:US Vertiv - accumulate (medium) - Vertiv sells power, thermal and liquid-cooling gear for data centres; it guided Q3 sales to $3.65-3.85B and FY26 EPS to $6.65-6.75. On Oct 27 it closed the $1.45B cash purchase of UtilityInnovation Group (microgrid controls, behind-the-meter power; up to $1.15B more in earnout, about 13x 2027 EBITDA, accretive in year one), a day after closing King Environmental. VRT was $207.43 (+3.8%) early Tuesday. - HOOD:US Robinhood Markets - watch (medium) - Record Q3 revenue of $1.42B (+12% YoY), slightly under consensus. Options revenue +31% to $399M, event contracts $173M (more than 6x). Net deposits $15.7B, funded customers 28.7M (+7%), Gold subscribers 5.2M. Top of the opex outlook cut by $25M. - MELI:US MercadoLibre - accumulate (medium) - MercadoLibre runs Latin America's largest marketplace, logistics network and Mercado Pago; Q2 net revenue was $10.2B (+50% y/y) while operating income fell 17%. It fell 7.8% to $1,668.72 on Oct 26 after Lula's runoff win; Citi upgraded it to Buy on Oct 27 ($2,050 target), calling the selloff an entry point, and it was $1,711.00 (+2.5%) early that day. - NET:US Cloudflare - accumulate (high) - Cloudflare runs a global edge network selling security, CDN, zero-trust and the Workers developer platform; Q2 revenue was $696M (+36%) and it guided Q3 to $736-737M. It was $331.00 early Tuesday Oct 27, near flat, holding the Oct 22-24 cybersecurity rally while chips rebounded. - SE:US Sea Limited - watch (low) - Sea runs Shopee, Monee (digital finance) and Garena across Southeast Asia and Brazil; Q2 revenue was $7.79B (+48%). New Street cut it to Neutral ($70) on Oct 26 after the Oct 20 Sea Cloud launch; it was $74.26 early Oct 27, about 3% above the Oct 26 low. Q3 date confirmed Oct 27 for Nov 10. - 6861:JP Keyence - buy (high) - Keyence sells machine-vision, sensors and measurement gear direct to factories with industry-leading margins and no debt. First-half results (Oct 29): sales JPY 735.4B (+34.9%), operating profit JPY 408.3B (+50.0%), operating margin 55.5% (from 49.9%); Q2 operating profit grew about 55%, faster than Q1. Interim dividend raised JPY 50 to JPY 325, and a 5-for-1 stock split takes effect Nov 21. Growth came mainly from semiconductor and AI equipment demand in Asia. - ASML:US ASML Holding - buy (high) - ASML is the only supplier of EUV lithography tools; Q3 sales were a record EUR 11.66B and it guided 2026 to EUR 44-45B, saying 2027-28 supply will not fully meet demand. The ADR fell 6.9% on Oct 22 after Lam warned of supply limits into 2027 and was $1,605.19 (+1.0%) early Tuesday Oct 27. Demand is not the issue. - TER:US Teradyne - accumulate (medium) - Q3 revenue $1,306M vs $769M a year ago; non-GAAP EPS $2.29. Semi Test $1,072M. Results came in above the top of guidance. ## Bellwether changes - capex_vs_backlog: Alphabet Q3 capex $51.4B (more than double a year ago), Google Cloud revenue $30.7B (+103%); EPS and revenue missed, shares down about 9-11% after hours Oct 28. Microsoft capex $45.2B, Azure +48% vs 44.8% expected; shares up about 4-5% after hours. Amazon reports Oct 29 US time./neutral -> Amazon Q3: cash capex about $75.9B, 2026 kept at about $220B, 2027 'meaningfully more' (no figure). AWS +39% to about $46B; AWS backlog $578B (from $496B). Trailing 12-month FCF about -$42B. EPS $1.89 vs $1.96 expected. Alphabet closed -12.6% Oct 29; Amazon about -2% Oct 30 after -7% early./neutral - h100_rental: Silicon Data SDH100RT $2.90/hr on Oct 28 (page shows +6.2% 7d; daily table Oct 21 $2.86 implies ~+1.4%), a new high, up 1c. H200 $3.47, A100 $1.56, MI300X $2.76. CME H100/B200 futures: CFTC review to Nov 9, no listing./bullish -> Silicon Data SDH100RT $2.90/hr on Oct 30, flat since Oct 28 (Oct 24 $2.88). Page says +4.7% 7d, which matches the Oct 1 to Oct 30 change ($2.77 to $2.90), not the week. H200 $3.50, A100 $1.56, MI300X $2.76./bullish ## Calendar changes - 2026-10-29-amzn-q3: 2026-10-29 After US close Thu; call 14:00 PT / 17:00 ET (08:00 AEDT Fri Oct 30) -> 2026-10-29 After US close Thu; call 17:00 ET (08:00 AEDT Fri Oct 30) - 2026-10-29-intc-q3: 2026-10-29 Release after US close; call 14:00 PT / 17:00 ET (08:00 AEDT Fri Oct 30) -> 2026-10-29 Release after US close; call 17:00 ET (08:00 AEDT Fri Oct 30) - 2026-10-29-byd-q3: 2026-10-29 After Hong Kong close, time TBC (evening AEDT Thu) -> 2026-10-29 After Hong Kong close Thu - 2026-10-29-keyence-q2: 2026-10-29 After Tokyo close, time TBC (about 17:30 AEDT Thu; 02:30 ET) -> 2026-10-29 After Tokyo close Thu - 2026-10-30-boj-decision: 2026-10-30 Meeting Oct 29-30; statement after the meeting ends Fri Oct 30, time TBC (usually Tokyo midday, early afternoon AEDT); Outlook Report Oct 30 -> 2026-10-30 Statement Fri Oct 30 (Tokyo midday) - added 2026-10-31 MACRO China official PMIs, October (consensus manufacturing 50.0 vs 50.1) - added 2026-11-09 TSM TSMC October 2026 revenue (date from MarketScreener, not confirmed) - added 2026-11-21 6861 Keyence 5-for-1 stock split takes effect ## New news (15) - 2026-10-29 [neutral] AMZN: Amazon misses on Q3 EPS and revenue; AWS grows 39% - EPS was $1.89 vs $1.97 expected and revenue $201.9B vs $202.3B. AWS grew 39%, its fastest in nearly five years. 2026 capex is held near $220B and Q4 revenue is guided to $240-247B. <https://www.geekwire.com/2026/aws-growth-hits-39-its-fastest-in-nearly-five-years-as-amazon-misses-on-earnings/> - 2026-10-29 [positive] AXOS: Axos FQ1 EPS up 16%, NIM up 10bp - Net income was $129.6M and diluted EPS $2.25, both up about 15-16% YoY. Deposits rose $848M, including deposits acquired from Capital One, and management expects faster loan growth in the December quarter. <https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001299709/000129970926000081/pressrelease20260930axearn.htm> - 2026-10-29 [positive] RKT: Rocket beats Q3 estimates; Q4 guide lower - Revenue was $3.28B and GAAP net income $709M on $43.6B of originations. Q4 adjusted revenue is guided to $2.1-2.3B, below Q3's $2.57B. <https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001805284/000180528426000121/rkt-093020268xkex991earnin.htm> - 2026-10-29 [negative] GOOGL: Alphabet falls 12.6%, worst day in 20+ years - Q3 adjusted EPS missed consensus by 28% and fell 26% YoY. Search revenue of $63.4B missed the $64.9B estimate and free cash flow was -$9.1B. <https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/stock-market-news-oct-30-083100676.html> - 2026-10-29 [negative] MRVL: Marvell drops 13% on reported Lumentum talks - Bloomberg reported advanced talks for an all-stock deal worth about $83B, and an announcement could come next week. Neither company has confirmed it, and analysts flag dilution risk. <https://www.streetinsider.com/Investing/Marvell+Technology+shares+drop+on+Lumentum+deal+concerns/27263536.html> - 2026-10-30 [negative] MARKET: Nasdaq down over 3% as AI capex fears spread - Amazon and Alphabet misses, Intel's weak guide, oil above $100 and Fed speakers floating a December hike pushed the Nasdaq down 3%+ and the VIX up 35%. Alphabet and Meta are now 20%+ below their highs. <https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/live/stock-market-today-friday-october-30-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-amazon-intel-131609630.html> - 2026-10-30 [neutral] OPENAI: OpenAI $30B round at $1.25T still open - OpenAI cut its target to $1.25T pre-money from $1.4T, with UAE investors and Coatue leading. Commitments were reportedly due Oct 30 and no close has been announced. <https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/22/openai-funding-round-uae-investors.html> - 2026-10-30 [negative] INTC: Intel falls about 30% on weak Q4 guide, dragging chips - Q4 revenue guide $15-16B vs $17.1B expected and gross margin 38%; AMD near -10%, Broadcom near -5%, Micron -4.4% in morning trade. <https://www.forbes.com/sites/fionariley/2026/10/30/intel-sinks-29-on-earnings-as-ai-spending-fears-worsen-tech-selloff/> - 2026-10-29 [neutral] AMZN: Amazon: AWS +39%, backlog $578B, 2027 capex to rise further - EPS $1.89 missed $1.96; 2026 capex held near $220B; trailing FCF about -$42B. Shares -7% early Oct 30, about -2% by 2pm ET. <https://www.aboutamazon.com/news/company-news/aws-growth-ai-demand-q3-2026-earnings> - 2026-10-29 [neutral] AXOS: Axos EPS $2.25, up 16%; NIM 4.64% - Roughly in line; loan growth guide kept at low-to-mid teens for FY27. <https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20261029575204/en/Axos-Financial-Inc.-Reports-First-Quarter-Fiscal-Year-2027-Results> - 2026-10-29 [neutral] RKT: Rocket Q3 adj. EBITDA $748M, best margin since 2021 - GAAP profit $709M; management expects a tougher Q4 as refinancing shrinks. <https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/real-estate/2026/10/29/rocket-reports-higher-third-quarter-profit-revenue/92502301007/> - 2026-10-29 [positive] 6861: Keyence H1 operating profit +50%, 5-for-1 split - Margin 55.5%; dividend raised JPY 50; chip and AI equipment demand in Asia. <https://filingreader.com/news-wire/tokyo/2026-10-29/keyence-reports-strong-first-half-growth-and-stock-split> - 2026-10-29 [negative] 1211: BYD Q3 profit +28% but misses forecasts - CNY 10.02B vs about 11.1B expected; overseas sales doubled; inventory up 60%. <https://finance.biggo.com/news/be7c945b-fdaf-491b-b23b-2dc2a4b9961c> - 2026-10-30 [neutral] BOJ: BOJ holds at 1.25%, flags December hike - 8-1 vote; underlying inflation declared at 2% target; Nikkei -2.1%. <https://cnbc.com/2026/10/30/boj-inflation-target-rates.html> - 2026-10-30 [negative] MACRO: Oil up about 2% after Hormuz tanker attack; 10-yr eases to about 4.93% - Brent about $113-117 depending on source; Treasuries rallied on the tech sell-off. <https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/futures-slide-ai-reckoning-claims-amazon-intel-oil-jumps-hormuz-tanker-hits> ## Notes Midday Friday run; prices mostly null (kept from prior). Not checked: Friday close, BYD Q3, most watchlist names (sector search only), memory pricing, b200/hopper/neocloud indicators. Marvell-Lumentum per Bloomberg via StreetInsider, unconfirmed. Some sources found by search only (GeekWire, StreetInsider, CNBC OpenAI).
Nothing here is financial advice. Holdings and opinions are my own; the "agent" sections are written by an automated research skill and may be wrong. Built 2026-10-30 18:40 UTC.