# Research run 2026-10-31T18:55 UTC ## What changed - Chips fell 7.2% Friday after Intel's 28.6% drop; Nasdaq down 2.9%, S&P down 1.8%. - Holdings Friday: Marvell -10.1%, Figure -8.5%, TSMC -6.0%, Micron -5.3%, Nvidia -4.2%; Rocket +7.4%. - Week: Enphase -18.8%, Marvell -14.1%, Alphabet -12.6%; Vertiv +19.6% led the watchlist. - China's October factory PMI fell to 49.3 from 50.1, below the 50.0 consensus. - Marvell-Lumentum still unconfirmed; Bloomberg says an all-stock deal could come as soon as next week. - Next, AEDT: Apple Tue morning, RBA Tue 2:30pm, US jobs Fri night. ## Market summary US stocks fell on Friday Oct 30: S&P 500 -1.8%, Nasdaq -2.9% and Dow -1.1%, after Intel's weak Q4 guide sent it down 28.6% and pulled AI chips 5-11% lower. For the week the S&P was about -0.6%, the Nasdaq about -2.0% and the Dow about -0.9%. VIX jumped 12.9% to 19.4, the 10-yr eased to about 4.93% and WTI held near $103. China's official manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3 in October from 50.1. The week ahead: Apple and Palantir Nov 2, RBA and AMD/Astera Labs Nov 3, US midterms Nov 3, MercadoLibre Nov 4, Cloudflare Nov 5 and US jobs Nov 6. Next, AEDT: Apple and Palantir Tue morning; RBA Tue 2:30pm; AMD and Astera Wed morning; US jobs Fri night. ## Holdings - AMZN: hold - -1.4% Fri, -3.1% week. AWS +39% but trailing free cash flow turned negative on AI spend; market punished capex, not demand. - AXOS: hold - -2.3% Fri, -1.5% week. No company news found; drifted with the broad selloff. - BABA: hold - -1.5% Fri, -1.6% week. No new catalyst found; moved with the tech tape. - ENPH: watch - -0.8% Fri, -18.8% week after the Q3 miss and Q4 guide roughly 20% below estimates (-16% on Wed). Six-year lows; thesis now rests on new products. - FIGR: watch - -8.5% Fri, -6.9% week. No specific news found; high-beta name hit hardest in the risk-off day. - GOOGL: hold - -1.4% Fri, -12.6% week. Worst day since 2004 on Thursday after an EPS miss, higher capex guidance and negative free cash flow. Cloud +103% keeps the thesis intact. - LDI: watch - -3.2% Fri, -4.9% week. No news found; stays a small speculative position. - META: hold - -1.5% Fri, -4.3% week. Held up better than chips despite AI capex worries. - MRVL: hold - -10.1% Fri, -14.1% week. Reported all-stock Lumentum deal, small premium, could be announced next week; dilution fear. Not confirmed yet. - MU: hold - -5.3% Fri, +0.8% week. Chip index -7.2% Fri on Intel; high memory prices blamed for PC weakness, which still favours Micron's pricing. - NFLX: hold - +0.1% Fri, -5.7% week. Defensive on Friday; no new news found. - NVDA: hold - -4.2% Fri, -3.0% week. Fell in the Intel-led chip rout (chip index -7.2%), not on own news. - OPENAI: hold - No new closed round found since the March close; nothing over the weekend. - RKT: hold - +7.4% Fri, +9.1% week. Only green holding; reports cite a Q3 beat (released Oct 29), not independently confirmed. - STRIPE: hold - No new priced round or tender found this period. - TSM: hold - -6.0% Fri, -3.0% week. Sold off with the chip index on AI-spend doubts; no company-specific news. ## Watchlist - ALAB:US Astera Labs - watch (medium) - Fri Oct 30 close $258.70 (-10.9% day, +0.6% week). Biggest drop in the group on the Intel-led chip sell-off; results Nov 3. Astera Labs sells PCIe, CXL and Ethernet connectivity chips for AI racks; Q2 revenue was $392M (+105% y/y). It was $265.82 (+2.4%) early Tuesday Oct 27 as Celestica's $40B 2027 guide lifted AI hardware; still about 30% below the Oct 7 close of $382.25. No company news since Oct 12. - AVGO:US Broadcom - accumulate (medium) - Fri Oct 30 close $326.08 (-5.5% day, +1.4% week). Fell with Intel and AMD as the market reassessed chip demand after Intel's weak guide. Broadcom supplies custom AI accelerators (Google, Meta, OpenAI, Anthropic) plus Ethernet networking and VMware. On Oct 26 banks and Blackstone lined up $63B for a vehicle that buys Broadcom gear and leases it to Anthropic, deliveries from 2027. No company news since then. It fell about 3.7% premarket and nearly 5% in morning trade on Fri Oct 30 in the semis sell-off triggered by Intel's guide. Amazon kept 2026 capex at about $220B and said 2027 will be 'meaningfully more', so custom-silicon demand is intact. - CLS:US Celestica - accumulate (high) - Fri Oct 30 close $265.53 (-6.1% day, +2.1% week). TSX accepted its new normal course issuer bid on Oct 30. Celestica builds 800G/1.6T networking switches, servers and storage for hyperscalers. Q3 revenue was $5.83B (+83%) and adjusted EPS $3.30 (guide $2.88-3.08); CCS +102%. 2026 raised to $21.0B / $11.55 EPS, and the first 2027 outlook is $40B revenue (+90%), $21.50 EPS and a 9.0% margin, against consensus near $35.7B. The stock was $272.20 (+10.4%) early Tuesday, about 12.7x the 2027 EPS guide. Upgraded to accumulate, conviction high. - CRDO:US Credo Technology - watch (low) - Fri Oct 30 close $150.99 (-8.7% day, +2.5% week). No company news; moved with AI networking names. Credo sells active electrical cables (AECs), optical DSPs and retimers; fiscal Q1 2027 revenue was $479M (+115% y/y). It fell 19.2% over Oct 22-23 after MaxLinear said it will target 20-30% of 1.6T AECs, and was $158.88 (+5.1%) early Tuesday Oct 27 in the Celestica-led rebound, with no company news. Conviction stays low until fiscal Q2 shows the 1.6T ramp. - SKHY:US SK hynix - accumulate (high) - Fri Oct 30 close $149.21 (-8.0% day, +8.9% week). Gave back part of the post-results gain. Q3 operating profit ~KRW 83.3T (+38% QoQ), revenue over KRW 100T for the first time, ~80% operating margin. HBM4 in full mass production and expected to overtake HBM3E in Q4. - BE:US Bloom Energy - accumulate (medium) - Fri Oct 30 close $203.17 (-8.6% day, +5.1% week). Citi lifted its target to $284 from $281 (about Oct 29). Bloom makes solid-oxide fuel cells for onsite data-centre power. Q3 revenue was a record $1.236B (+138% y/y), adjusted EPS $0.94 vs $0.69, and 2026 guidance was raised to $4.4-4.6B. After falling 19% over Oct 22-23 it has rebounded: $221.07 (+8.4%) early Tuesday Oct 27, about 15% above the Oct 23 close, with Barclays raising its target to $316. - GEV:US GE Vernova - accumulate (high) - Fri Oct 30 close $857.87 (-3.4% day, +5.3% week). HSBC upgraded to Buy on Oct 30; Mizuho target to $959. Q3 orders ~$29.3B (+96% YoY), equipment orders +134%, backlog ~$197-200B. Full-year guidance raised on all key metrics; buyback lifted from $10B to $20B. Gas backlog 53 to 64 GW. - VRT:US Vertiv - accumulate (medium) - Fri Oct 30 close $232.50 (-5.5% day, +19.6% week). Still up about a fifth on the week after the Oct 28 beat and raised outlook. Vertiv sells power, thermal and liquid-cooling gear for data centres; it guided Q3 sales to $3.65-3.85B and FY26 EPS to $6.65-6.75. On Oct 27 it closed the $1.45B cash purchase of UtilityInnovation Group (microgrid controls, behind-the-meter power; up to $1.15B more in earnout, about 13x 2027 EBITDA, accretive in year one), a day after closing King Environmental. VRT was $207.43 (+3.8%) early Tuesday. - HOOD:US Robinhood Markets - watch (medium) - Fri Oct 30 close $84.99 (-7.2% day, -10.6% week). Truist cut its target to $123 from $125 after a Q3 profit miss on weak crypto revenue. Record Q3 revenue of $1.42B (+12% YoY), slightly under consensus. Options revenue +31% to $399M, event contracts $173M (more than 6x). Net deposits $15.7B, funded customers 28.7M (+7%), Gold subscribers 5.2M. Top of the opex outlook cut by $25M. - MELI:US MercadoLibre - accumulate (medium) - Fri Oct 30 close $1,624.53 (-2.1% day, -10.3% week). No company news; Q3 results provisional for Nov 4. MercadoLibre runs Latin America's largest marketplace, logistics network and Mercado Pago; Q2 net revenue was $10.2B (+50% y/y) while operating income fell 17%. It fell 7.8% to $1,668.72 on Oct 26 after Lula's runoff win; Citi upgraded it to Buy on Oct 27 ($2,050 target), calling the selloff an entry point, and it was $1,711.00 (+2.5%) early that day. - NET:US Cloudflare - accumulate (high) - Fri Oct 30 close $280.70 (-9.5% day, -13.8% week). No company-specific news found for the drop; Q3 results Nov 5. Cloudflare runs a global edge network selling security, CDN, zero-trust and the Workers developer platform; Q2 revenue was $696M (+36%) and it guided Q3 to $736-737M. It was $331.00 early Tuesday Oct 27, near flat, holding the Oct 22-24 cybersecurity rally while chips rebounded. - SE:US Sea Limited - watch (low) - Fri Oct 30 close $74.24 (-3.0% day, -0.5% week). No company news; Q3 results Nov 10. Sea runs Shopee, Monee (digital finance) and Garena across Southeast Asia and Brazil; Q2 revenue was $7.79B (+48%). New Street cut it to Neutral ($70) on Oct 26 after the Oct 20 Sea Cloud launch; it was $74.26 early Oct 27, about 3% above the Oct 26 low. Q3 date confirmed Oct 27 for Nov 10. - 6861:JP Keyence - buy (high) - Keyence sells machine-vision, sensors and measurement gear direct to factories with industry-leading margins and no debt. First-half results (Oct 29): sales JPY 735.4B (+34.9%), operating profit JPY 408.3B (+50.0%), operating margin 55.5% (from 49.9%); Q2 operating profit grew about 55%, faster than Q1. Interim dividend raised JPY 50 to JPY 325, and a 5-for-1 stock split takes effect Nov 21. Growth came mainly from semiconductor and AI equipment demand in Asia. - ASML:US ASML Holding - buy (high) - Fri Oct 30 close $1,565.90 (-6.5% day, -0.4% week). Fell with chip equipment on Oct 30. ASML is the only supplier of EUV lithography tools; Q3 sales were a record EUR 11.66B and it guided 2026 to EUR 44-45B, saying 2027-28 supply will not fully meet demand. The ADR fell 6.9% on Oct 22 after Lam warned of supply limits into 2027 and was $1,605.19 (+1.0%) early Tuesday Oct 27. Demand is not the issue. - TER:US Teradyne - accumulate (medium) - Fri Oct 30 close $274.37 (-7.4% day, -11.2% week). No company news found; fell with test and semis. Q3 revenue $1,306M vs $769M a year ago; non-GAAP EPS $2.29. Semi Test $1,072M. Results came in above the top of guidance. ## Bellwether changes - h100_rental: Silicon Data SDH100RT $2.90/hr on Oct 30, flat since Oct 28 (Oct 24 $2.88). Page says +4.7% 7d, which matches the Oct 1 to Oct 30 change ($2.77 to $2.90), not the week. H200 $3.50, A100 $1.56, MI300X $2.76./bullish -> Silicon Data SDH100RT $2.92/hr on Oct 31, up 2c from $2.90 Oct 30 and +1.4% on the week (Oct 24 $2.88). Page's '+5.4% 7d' matches Oct 2 to Oct 31 ($2.77 to $2.92)./bullish - b200_rental: Silicon Data B200 $6.47 on Oct 28 (+10.0% 7d), down 16c from the Oct 26 high; B300 $7.56 (+9.2% 7d), flat. B200/H100 ratio 2.23x (6.47/2.90). Both above the $4.50 and 2x triggers./bullish -> Silicon Data B200 $6.64 on Oct 31, up 17c from $6.47 Oct 28 and +2.9% on the week (Oct 24 $6.45); a new high. B200/H100 ratio 2.27x (6.64/2.92). Both above the $4.50 and 2x triggers./bullish - dc_cost_per_gw: 10-yr Treasury par yield 5.05% on Oct 28, up 6bp from 4.99% Oct 27; 2-yr 4.67%, down 3bp. Curve steepened after the Fed hold. 30-yr about 5.36%. Build cost unchanged near $50B per GW (Huang, Oct 21)./neutral -> 10-yr Treasury about 4.93% at the Oct 30 close, down about 6bp on the day and 12bp below the 5.05% Oct 28 print. WTI $102.95. Build cost unchanged near $50B per GW (Huang, Oct 21)./neutral ## New news (10) - 2026-10-30 [negative] MRVL: Marvell slides again on reported all-stock Lumentum deal - Bloomberg reports an all-stock deal for Lumentum could be announced as soon as next week, at a small premium. Marvell fell 13% Thursday and about 10% Friday on dilution fears. <https://www.fxleaders.com/news/2026/10/30/mrvl-stock-slips-below-200-as-lumentum-deal-talks-weigh-on-marvell/> - 2026-10-30 [negative] GOOGL: Alphabet extends losses after worst day since 2004 - Q3 EPS of $2.12 missed $3.01 and free cash flow worsened to -$9.06B on capex; shares fell about 13% Thursday and 1% Friday. Cloud grew 103%. <https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/article/google-stock-plunges-more-than-12-on-q3-earnings-miss-135322453.html> - 2026-10-30 [negative] MARKET: Nasdaq -2.9%, chip index -7.2% as Intel drops 28.6% - S&P 500 fell 1.8%, the worst day since June, and the Nasdaq had its worst month since March 2025. Doubts about AI spending returns drove the selloff. <https://www.stocktitan.net/articles/stock-market-today-live-october-30-2026> - 2026-10-30 [negative] MACRO: Nasdaq -2.9%, S&P -1.8% as Intel's guide drags chips - S&P 500 7,580 (-1.8%), Nasdaq 25,437 (-2.9%), Dow 51,770 (-1.1%). Intel fell 28.6% after a Q4 guide of $15-16B vs $17.1B expected. VIX +12.9% to 19.4; 10-yr about 4.93%; WTI $102.95. <https://tapeboard.com/blog/market-pulse-2026-10-30> - 2026-10-30 [negative] ALAB: Astera Labs -10.9% to $258.70 ahead of Nov 3 results - Worst of the watchlist on the day; flat on the week (+0.6%). <https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/alab/history/> - 2026-10-30 [negative] NET: Cloudflare -9.5%, -13.8% on the week - No company news found for the drop; Q3 results Nov 5 after US close. <https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/net/history/> - 2026-10-30 [positive] GEV: HSBC upgrades GE Vernova to Buy - Mizuho lifted its target to $959. Shares -3.4% Friday but +5.3% on the week after the Q3 beat and Trench deal. <https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/gev/> - 2026-10-30 [positive] CLS: Celestica gets TSX approval for new buyback - Normal course issuer bid accepted; shares -6.1% Friday, +2.1% on the week. <https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/cls/> - 2026-10-30 [negative] HOOD: Robinhood -7.2%, -10.6% week after crypto-led miss - Truist cut its target to $123 from $125. <https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/hood/> - 2026-10-31 [negative] MACRO: China October factory PMI 49.3, back in contraction - Down from 50.1 in September and below the 50.0 consensus; services also contracted. <https://tradingeconomics.com/china/business-confidence> ## Notes Friday closes from stockanalysis.com and tapeboard (single sources). Correction: last run's Figure take cited a $6.3B Binance hack; no evidence found this run, replaced. Not checked: SOX weekly, China services PMI number, CoreWeave credit, DRAM contract prices, loved companies beyond Anthropic, week-ahead dates not re-verified.
Nothing here is financial advice. Holdings and opinions are my own; the "agent" sections are written by an automated research skill and may be wrong. Built 2026-10-31 18:41 UTC.