# Research run 2026-11-02T18:55 UTC ## What changed - Marvell signed an all-stock deal for Lumentum at a 24% premium; Marvell down 9.5% midday, take stays watch. - Partial rebound Monday midday: S&P up 0.6%, Nasdaq up 0.8%; oil down about 7% on Iran ceasefire hopes. - US factory ISM 55.5 beat the 54.6 forecast; production at its highest since November 2021. - Korea October chip exports up 259% on a year ago; SK hynix up 4.5% in Seoul. - Next, AEDT: Apple results 9am Tue, RBA 2:30pm Tue, AMD and Astera Wed morning. ## Market summary Intraday Mon Nov 2, about 11:30am ET: S&P 500 +0.6%, Nasdaq +0.8%, Dow +1.1%, a partial rebound after Friday's chip rout (S&P -1.8%, Nasdaq -2.9%). Crude fell about 7% on Iran ceasefire hopes (Brent near $107), the 10-year eased to about 4.94%, and ISM manufacturing beat at 55.5 with prices paid falling. In Asia the Kospi closed +2.2% on SK hynix (+4.5%), the Hang Seng rose about 0.5%, and the Nikkei slipped 0.3% as Kioxia fell 16%. SOX intraday move not confirmed. Next, AEDT: Apple results 9am Tue; RBA 2:30pm Tue; AMD, Astera and Supermicro Wed morning; US jobs 12:30am Sat. ## Holdings - AMZN: hold - Up about 4.2% by 1pm ET Monday, leading megacaps after Friday's tech sell-off. No company news found to explain the move. - AXOS: hold - No news found since Sunday. Market up about 0.3-1% Monday. - BABA: hold - No news found since Sunday. XPeng up about 7% Monday; no Alibaba move checked. - ENPH: watch - No company news found. Brent fell over 7% Monday, which tends to weigh on energy names. - FIGR: hold - No news found since Sunday. - GOOGL: hold - No new Alphabet news found since Sunday. Nasdaq gain faded from 1.3% to 0.3% by early afternoon. - LDI: hold - No news found since Sunday. - META: hold - No news found since Sunday. Some big tech fell again Monday as the Nasdaq gain faded. - MRVL: watch - Signed all-stock Lumentum deal, 4.5 shares each, about 33% dilution, closing 1H 2028. Shares down about 9.5% by 1pm ET. Q3 revenue guide held, range narrowed. - MU: hold - Up about 2.4% pre-market Monday as chips bounced after Friday's sell-off. Intraday move not confirmed. - NFLX: hold - No news found since Sunday. - NVDA: hold - Up about 1-1.4% Monday, a modest bounce after Friday's chip sell-off. - OPENAI: hold - No new closed round found. The last confirmed round closed in March; reports of a larger raise are unconfirmed and undated. - RKT: hold - No news found since Sunday. - STRIPE: hold - No new priced round or tender found. - TSM: hold - No news found since Sunday. Chip peers bounced modestly Monday. ## Watchlist - ALAB:US Astera Labs - watch (medium) - Fri Oct 30 close $258.70 (-10.9% day, +0.6% week). Biggest drop in the group on the Intel-led chip sell-off; results Nov 3. Astera Labs sells PCIe, CXL and Ethernet connectivity chips for AI racks; Q2 revenue was $392M (+105% y/y). It was $265.82 (+2.4%) early Tuesday Oct 27 as Celestica's $40B 2027 guide lifted AI hardware; still about 30% below the Oct 7 close of $382.25. No company news since Oct 12. - AVGO:US Broadcom - accumulate (medium) - Fri Oct 30 close $326.08 (-5.5% day, +1.4% week). Fell with Intel and AMD as the market reassessed chip demand after Intel's weak guide. Broadcom supplies custom AI accelerators (Google, Meta, OpenAI, Anthropic) plus Ethernet networking and VMware. On Oct 26 banks and Blackstone lined up $63B for a vehicle that buys Broadcom gear and leases it to Anthropic, deliveries from 2027. No company news since then. It fell about 3.7% premarket and nearly 5% in morning trade on Fri Oct 30 in the semis sell-off triggered by Intel's guide. Amazon kept 2026 capex at about $220B and said 2027 will be 'meaningfully more', so custom-silicon demand is intact. - CLS:US Celestica - accumulate (high) - Fri Oct 30 close $265.53 (-6.1% day, +2.1% week). TSX accepted its new normal course issuer bid on Oct 30. Celestica builds 800G/1.6T networking switches, servers and storage for hyperscalers. Q3 revenue was $5.83B (+83%) and adjusted EPS $3.30 (guide $2.88-3.08); CCS +102%. 2026 raised to $21.0B / $11.55 EPS, and the first 2027 outlook is $40B revenue (+90%), $21.50 EPS and a 9.0% margin, against consensus near $35.7B. The stock was $272.20 (+10.4%) early Tuesday, about 12.7x the 2027 EPS guide. Upgraded to accumulate, conviction high. - CRDO:US Credo Technology - watch (low) - Fri Oct 30 close $150.99 (-8.7% day, +2.5% week). No company news; moved with AI networking names. Credo sells active electrical cables (AECs), optical DSPs and retimers; fiscal Q1 2027 revenue was $479M (+115% y/y). It fell 19.2% over Oct 22-23 after MaxLinear said it will target 20-30% of 1.6T AECs, and was $158.88 (+5.1%) early Tuesday Oct 27 in the Celestica-led rebound, with no company news. Conviction stays low until fiscal Q2 shows the 1.6T ramp. - SKHY:US SK hynix - accumulate (high) - Seoul shares +4.5% Mon Nov 2 (KRW 1,482,000) as the Kospi rebounded 2.2%; Korea's October chip exports were reported up 259% y/y. Fri Oct 30 US close $149.21 (-8.0% day). Q3 operating profit ~KRW 83.3T, revenue over KRW 100T for the first time, ~80% operating margin. HBM4 in full mass production and expected to overtake HBM3E in Q4. - BE:US Bloom Energy - accumulate (medium) - Fri Oct 30 close $203.17 (-8.6% day, +5.1% week). Citi lifted its target to $284 from $281 (about Oct 29). Bloom makes solid-oxide fuel cells for onsite data-centre power. Q3 revenue was a record $1.236B (+138% y/y), adjusted EPS $0.94 vs $0.69, and 2026 guidance was raised to $4.4-4.6B. After falling 19% over Oct 22-23 it has rebounded: $221.07 (+8.4%) early Tuesday Oct 27, about 15% above the Oct 23 close, with Barclays raising its target to $316. - GEV:US GE Vernova - accumulate (high) - Fri Oct 30 close $857.87 (-3.4% day, +5.3% week). HSBC upgraded to Buy on Oct 30; Mizuho target to $959. Q3 orders ~$29.3B (+96% YoY), equipment orders +134%, backlog ~$197-200B. Full-year guidance raised on all key metrics; buyback lifted from $10B to $20B. Gas backlog 53 to 64 GW. - VRT:US Vertiv - accumulate (medium) - Fri Oct 30 close $232.50 (-5.5% day, +19.6% week). Still up about a fifth on the week after the Oct 28 beat and raised outlook. Vertiv sells power, thermal and liquid-cooling gear for data centres; it guided Q3 sales to $3.65-3.85B and FY26 EPS to $6.65-6.75. On Oct 27 it closed the $1.45B cash purchase of UtilityInnovation Group (microgrid controls, behind-the-meter power; up to $1.15B more in earnout, about 13x 2027 EBITDA, accretive in year one), a day after closing King Environmental. VRT was $207.43 (+3.8%) early Tuesday. - HOOD:US Robinhood Markets - watch (medium) - Fri Oct 30 close $84.99 (-7.2% day, -10.6% week). Truist cut its target to $123 from $125 after a Q3 profit miss on weak crypto revenue. Record Q3 revenue of $1.42B (+12% YoY), slightly under consensus. Options revenue +31% to $399M, event contracts $173M (more than 6x). Net deposits $15.7B, funded customers 28.7M (+7%), Gold subscribers 5.2M. Top of the opex outlook cut by $25M. - MELI:US MercadoLibre - accumulate (medium) - Fri Oct 30 close $1,624.53 (-2.1% day, -10.3% week). No company news; Q3 results provisional for Nov 4. MercadoLibre runs Latin America's largest marketplace, logistics network and Mercado Pago; Q2 net revenue was $10.2B (+50% y/y) while operating income fell 17%. It fell 7.8% to $1,668.72 on Oct 26 after Lula's runoff win; Citi upgraded it to Buy on Oct 27 ($2,050 target), calling the selloff an entry point, and it was $1,711.00 (+2.5%) early that day. - NET:US Cloudflare - accumulate (high) - Fri Oct 30 close $280.70 (-9.5% day, -13.8% week). No company-specific news found for the drop; Q3 results Nov 5. Cloudflare runs a global edge network selling security, CDN, zero-trust and the Workers developer platform; Q2 revenue was $696M (+36%) and it guided Q3 to $736-737M. It was $331.00 early Tuesday Oct 27, near flat, holding the Oct 22-24 cybersecurity rally while chips rebounded. - SE:US Sea Limited - watch (low) - Fri Oct 30 close $74.24 (-3.0% day, -0.5% week). No company news; Q3 results Nov 10. Sea runs Shopee, Monee (digital finance) and Garena across Southeast Asia and Brazil; Q2 revenue was $7.79B (+48%). New Street cut it to Neutral ($70) on Oct 26 after the Oct 20 Sea Cloud launch; it was $74.26 early Oct 27, about 3% above the Oct 26 low. Q3 date confirmed Oct 27 for Nov 10. - 6861:JP Keyence - buy (high) - Keyence sells machine-vision, sensors and measurement gear direct to factories with industry-leading margins and no debt. First-half results (Oct 29): sales JPY 735.4B (+34.9%), operating profit JPY 408.3B (+50.0%), operating margin 55.5% (from 49.9%); Q2 operating profit grew about 55%, faster than Q1. Interim dividend raised JPY 50 to JPY 325, and a 5-for-1 stock split takes effect Nov 21. Growth came mainly from semiconductor and AI equipment demand in Asia. - ASML:US ASML Holding - buy (high) - Fri Oct 30 close $1,565.90 (-6.5% day, -0.4% week). Fell with chip equipment on Oct 30. ASML is the only supplier of EUV lithography tools; Q3 sales were a record EUR 11.66B and it guided 2026 to EUR 44-45B, saying 2027-28 supply will not fully meet demand. The ADR fell 6.9% on Oct 22 after Lam warned of supply limits into 2027 and was $1,605.19 (+1.0%) early Tuesday Oct 27. Demand is not the issue. - TER:US Teradyne - accumulate (medium) - Fri Oct 30 close $274.37 (-7.4% day, -11.2% week). No company news found; fell with test and semis. Q3 revenue $1,306M vs $769M a year ago; non-GAAP EPS $2.29. Semi Test $1,072M. Results came in above the top of guidance. ## Bellwether changes - memory_prices: SK hynix Q3 (Oct 28): revenue above KRW 100T for the first time, operating margin about 80%; says memory demand outruns supply through 2030. MU +5.9% Oct 28. TrendForce spot Oct 27: DDR5 16Gb $61.33 (0.00%), DDR4 16Gb $82.62 (0.00%). Public contract table still 2H Aug./bullish -> TrendForce spot Nov 2: DDR5 16Gb $61.50 (0.00%), DDR4 16Gb $82.72 (-0.09%). Contract table now 2H Sep: DDR4 16Gb $52.00 (+4.0%). SK hynix +4.5% in Seoul Nov 2; Kioxia -16% on a weak Dec-quarter guide./bullish ## New news (5) - 2026-11-02 [negative] MRVL: Marvell signs all-stock deal to buy Lumentum - Fixed 4.5 Marvell shares per Lumentum share, about a 24% premium to the Oct 28 close. Marvell holders keep about 67%, the deal is expected to close in 1H 2028, and Q3 revenue guidance holds with the range narrowed to plus or minus 2%. <https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001633978/000119312526442758/d163169dex991.htm> - 2026-11-02 [negative] MRVL: Marvell down 9.5%, Lumentum down 15% by 1pm ET - Both stocks fell through the session after the deal news. Indexes were up 0.3-0.9% as oil fell over 7%. <https://stocktitan.net/articles/stock-market-today-live-november-2-2026> - 2026-11-02 [positive] MACRO: ISM manufacturing 55.5 in October, beats ~54.6 - 10th month of expansion; production 59.0, highest since Nov 2021; prices paid down 2.7 to 75.2. <https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/manufacturing-pmi-at-55-5-october-2026-ism-manufacturing-pmi-report-302925617.html> - 2026-11-02 [positive] SKHY: SK hynix +4.5% in Seoul as Kospi rebounds 2.2% - Korean October chip exports reported +259% y/y; Samsung +2%. Kioxia -16% in Tokyo on a weak outlook. <https://tradingkey.com/analysis/stocks/more/262263510-japan-korea-stocks-skhy-kospi-nikkei-samsung-kioxia-ai-softbank-fomc-ai-tradingkey> - 2026-11-02 [positive] MACRO: Oil falls ~7% on Iran ceasefire hopes, stocks rebound - S&P +0.6%, Nasdaq +0.8% at 11:30am ET; 10-yr 4.94%; Oracle -6% on a $20B raise; Amazon +4%. <https://www.fool.com/coverage/stock-market-today/2026/11/02/stock-market-midday-nov-2-stocks-rally-as-oil-prices-tumble-on-diplomatic-hopes/> ## Notes Midday Monday run; prices null (prior closes kept). Not checked: SOX, China services PMI (due Nov 4), neocloud_credit, power_bottleneck, nvidia_dc, most watchlist names individually, loves beyond Anthropic/Apple. Anthropic IPO update rests on one live-blog line.
Nothing here is financial advice. Holdings and opinions are my own; the "agent" sections are written by an automated research skill and may be wrong. Built 2026-11-02 18:40 UTC.