# Research run 2026-11-03T18:55 UTC ## What changed - RBA raised the cash rate 25bp to 4.85% on a 6-3 vote; inflation seen above band until late 2027. - Monday: chips fell 3.4%, now about 22% below the Oct 6 high; Marvell -12.7%, Lumentum -18.6%, Micron -5.8%. - Apple beat on revenue and iPhone (+17%) but guided margins lower on memory costs; down about 3% after hours. - Tuesday midday rebound: Nasdaq up 1.1%, S&P up 0.7%, on US midterm election day. - Bloom Energy up about 11% on a Barclays upgrade and a 1 GW fuel-cell deal. - Next, AEDT: midterm results from 11am Wed; Astera and AMD results Wed morning. ## Market summary Monday Nov 2 US close: S&P 500 -0.5%, Nasdaq -1.1%, SOX -3.4% (about 22% below its Oct 6 high, a bear market) while the Dow rose 0.4% and oil fell nearly 8% on US-Iran talk hopes. The RBA hiked 25bp to 4.85% on Nov 3, a 6-3 vote, citing a materially higher inflation outlook. Tuesday Asia: KOSPI fell more than 3% early (Samsung, SK hynix about -5%), ASX +0.4%, Hang Seng slightly higher. Intraday Tuesday about 1:40pm ET: S&P 500 +0.7%, Nasdaq +1.1%, Dow -0.2% as chips rebound and Apple slips after earnings; 10-yr about 4.95%, WTI about $96 (-0.5%), Brent about $103. September JOLTS openings rose to 7.5M from a revised 7.2M; midterm options priced about a 0.9% S&P move today, results from about 11:00 AEDT Wed. Next, AEDT: midterm results from 11am Wed; Astera, AMD, Supermicro results Wed morning; US jobs 12:30am Sat. ## Holdings - AMZN: hold - Rose 2.2% Monday while the Nasdaq fell 1.1%, one of the few big tech names up as money left chips. - AXOS: hold - No new company news found since Monday. - BABA: hold - No new company news found. Apple reported Greater China revenue up 21%, a sign that China consumer demand is holding up. - ENPH: watch - No company news. Energy was one of only two sectors to fall sharply Monday, as oil dropped on hopes of US-Iran talks. - FIGR: hold - No new company news found since Monday. - GOOGL: hold - Still down about 12% from late last week after its Q3 report. No Monday move confirmed. - LDI: hold - No new company news found. Midterm results could shift the outlook for mortgage rates. - META: hold - No new company news found. Big tech capex is expected above 700B this year, per Euronews. - MRVL: watch - Fell 12.7% Monday on the all-stock Lumentum deal; Lumentum fell 18.6%. Chips rebounded early Tuesday. Deal closes 1H 2028. - MU: hold - Fell 5.8% Monday in the chip selloff. Apple said memory costs are the main squeeze on its margins, which shows memory makers have pricing power. - NFLX: hold - No new company news found since Monday. - NVDA: hold - Fell 1.3% Monday as chips sold off. Holds stakes in both Marvell and Lumentum. Chips led the rebound early Tuesday. - OPENAI: hold - No new closed valuation found. - RKT: hold - No new company news found. Midterm results could shift the outlook for mortgage rates. - STRIPE: hold - No new closed valuation found. - TSM: hold - No new company news found. Moved with the chip selloff Monday and the rebound Tuesday; its own moves were not checked. ## Watchlist - ALAB:US Astera Labs - watch (medium) - Fri Oct 30 close $258.70 (-10.9% day, +0.6% week). Biggest drop in the group on the Intel-led chip sell-off; results Nov 3. Astera Labs sells PCIe, CXL and Ethernet connectivity chips for AI racks; Q2 revenue was $392M (+105% y/y). It was $265.82 (+2.4%) early Tuesday Oct 27 as Celestica's $40B 2027 guide lifted AI hardware; still about 30% below the Oct 7 close of $382.25. No company news since Oct 12. - AVGO:US Broadcom - accumulate (medium) - Fri Oct 30 close $326.08 (-5.5% day, +1.4% week). Fell with Intel and AMD as the market reassessed chip demand after Intel's weak guide. Broadcom supplies custom AI accelerators (Google, Meta, OpenAI, Anthropic) plus Ethernet networking and VMware. On Oct 26 banks and Blackstone lined up $63B for a vehicle that buys Broadcom gear and leases it to Anthropic, deliveries from 2027. No company news since then. It fell about 3.7% premarket and nearly 5% in morning trade on Fri Oct 30 in the semis sell-off triggered by Intel's guide. Amazon kept 2026 capex at about $220B and said 2027 will be 'meaningfully more', so custom-silicon demand is intact. - CLS:US Celestica - accumulate (high) - Fri Oct 30 close $265.53 (-6.1% day, +2.1% week). TSX accepted its new normal course issuer bid on Oct 30. Celestica builds 800G/1.6T networking switches, servers and storage for hyperscalers. Q3 revenue was $5.83B (+83%) and adjusted EPS $3.30 (guide $2.88-3.08); CCS +102%. 2026 raised to $21.0B / $11.55 EPS, and the first 2027 outlook is $40B revenue (+90%), $21.50 EPS and a 9.0% margin, against consensus near $35.7B. The stock was $272.20 (+10.4%) early Tuesday, about 12.7x the 2027 EPS guide. Upgraded to accumulate, conviction high. - CRDO:US Credo Technology - watch (low) - Fri Oct 30 close $150.99 (-8.7% day, +2.5% week). No company news; moved with AI networking names. Credo sells active electrical cables (AECs), optical DSPs and retimers; fiscal Q1 2027 revenue was $479M (+115% y/y). It fell 19.2% over Oct 22-23 after MaxLinear said it will target 20-30% of 1.6T AECs, and was $158.88 (+5.1%) early Tuesday Oct 27 in the Celestica-led rebound, with no company news. Conviction stays low until fiscal Q2 shows the 1.6T ramp. - SKHY:US SK hynix - accumulate (high) - Tue Nov 3: SK hynix down about 5% in early Seoul trade as the KOSPI fell more than 3%, following Monday's 3.4% SOX drop. Seoul shares +4.5% Mon Nov 2 (KRW 1,482,000) as the Kospi rebounded 2.2%; Korea's October chip exports were reported up 259% y/y. Fri Oct 30 US close $149.21 (-8.0% day). Q3 operating profit ~KRW 83.3T, revenue over KRW 100T for the first time, ~80% operating margin. HBM4 in full mass production and expected to overtake HBM3E in Q4. - BE:US Bloom Energy - accumulate (medium) - Tue Nov 3: up about 10-12% intraday after Barclays upgraded to Overweight ($289 target) and Bloom signed a non-binding MOU with California Resources and Carbon TerraVault to evaluate at least 1 GW of fuel cells with carbon capture; shares had fallen about 31% in the prior month. Fri Oct 30 close $203.17 (-8.6% day, +5.1% week). Citi lifted its target to $284 from $281 (about Oct 29). Bloom makes solid-oxide fuel cells for onsite data-centre power. Q3 revenue was a record $1.236B (+138% y/y), adjusted EPS $0.94 vs $0.69, and 2026 guidance was raised to $4.4-4.6B. After falling 19% over Oct 22-23 it has rebounded: $221.07 (+8.4%) early Tuesday Oct 27, about 15% above the Oct 23 close, with Barclays raising its target to $316. - GEV:US GE Vernova - accumulate (high) - Fri Oct 30 close $857.87 (-3.4% day, +5.3% week). HSBC upgraded to Buy on Oct 30; Mizuho target to $959. Q3 orders ~$29.3B (+96% YoY), equipment orders +134%, backlog ~$197-200B. Full-year guidance raised on all key metrics; buyback lifted from $10B to $20B. Gas backlog 53 to 64 GW. - VRT:US Vertiv - accumulate (medium) - Fri Oct 30 close $232.50 (-5.5% day, +19.6% week). Still up about a fifth on the week after the Oct 28 beat and raised outlook. Vertiv sells power, thermal and liquid-cooling gear for data centres; it guided Q3 sales to $3.65-3.85B and FY26 EPS to $6.65-6.75. On Oct 27 it closed the $1.45B cash purchase of UtilityInnovation Group (microgrid controls, behind-the-meter power; up to $1.15B more in earnout, about 13x 2027 EBITDA, accretive in year one), a day after closing King Environmental. VRT was $207.43 (+3.8%) early Tuesday. - HOOD:US Robinhood Markets - watch (medium) - Fri Oct 30 close $84.99 (-7.2% day, -10.6% week). Truist cut its target to $123 from $125 after a Q3 profit miss on weak crypto revenue. Record Q3 revenue of $1.42B (+12% YoY), slightly under consensus. Options revenue +31% to $399M, event contracts $173M (more than 6x). Net deposits $15.7B, funded customers 28.7M (+7%), Gold subscribers 5.2M. Top of the opex outlook cut by $25M. - MELI:US MercadoLibre - accumulate (medium) - Fri Oct 30 close $1,624.53 (-2.1% day, -10.3% week). No company news; Q3 results provisional for Nov 4. MercadoLibre runs Latin America's largest marketplace, logistics network and Mercado Pago; Q2 net revenue was $10.2B (+50% y/y) while operating income fell 17%. It fell 7.8% to $1,668.72 on Oct 26 after Lula's runoff win; Citi upgraded it to Buy on Oct 27 ($2,050 target), calling the selloff an entry point, and it was $1,711.00 (+2.5%) early that day. - NET:US Cloudflare - accumulate (high) - Tue Nov 3: JPMorgan upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight, $350 target. Q3 results Thursday Nov 5. Fri Oct 30 close $280.70 (-9.5% day, -13.8% week). No company-specific news found for the drop; Q3 results Nov 5. Cloudflare runs a global edge network selling security, CDN, zero-trust and the Workers developer platform; Q2 revenue was $696M (+36%) and it guided Q3 to $736-737M. It was $331.00 early Tuesday Oct 27, near flat, holding the Oct 22-24 cybersecurity rally while chips rebounded. - SE:US Sea Limited - watch (low) - Fri Oct 30 close $74.24 (-3.0% day, -0.5% week). No company news; Q3 results Nov 10. Sea runs Shopee, Monee (digital finance) and Garena across Southeast Asia and Brazil; Q2 revenue was $7.79B (+48%). New Street cut it to Neutral ($70) on Oct 26 after the Oct 20 Sea Cloud launch; it was $74.26 early Oct 27, about 3% above the Oct 26 low. Q3 date confirmed Oct 27 for Nov 10. - 6861:JP Keyence - buy (high) - Keyence sells machine-vision, sensors and measurement gear direct to factories with industry-leading margins and no debt. First-half results (Oct 29): sales JPY 735.4B (+34.9%), operating profit JPY 408.3B (+50.0%), operating margin 55.5% (from 49.9%); Q2 operating profit grew about 55%, faster than Q1. Interim dividend raised JPY 50 to JPY 325, and a 5-for-1 stock split takes effect Nov 21. Growth came mainly from semiconductor and AI equipment demand in Asia. - ASML:US ASML Holding - buy (high) - Fri Oct 30 close $1,565.90 (-6.5% day, -0.4% week). Fell with chip equipment on Oct 30. ASML is the only supplier of EUV lithography tools; Q3 sales were a record EUR 11.66B and it guided 2026 to EUR 44-45B, saying 2027-28 supply will not fully meet demand. The ADR fell 6.9% on Oct 22 after Lam warned of supply limits into 2027 and was $1,605.19 (+1.0%) early Tuesday Oct 27. Demand is not the issue. - TER:US Teradyne - accumulate (medium) - Fri Oct 30 close $274.37 (-7.4% day, -11.2% week). No company news found; fell with test and semis. Q3 revenue $1,306M vs $769M a year ago; non-GAAP EPS $2.29. Semi Test $1,072M. Results came in above the top of guidance. ## New news (9) - 2026-11-03 [negative] AAPL: Apple beats on Q4 but guides margins lower on memory costs - Revenue rose 12% and iPhone revenue rose 17.5%. Gross margin guidance of 45-46% for December was below the 46.3% analysts expected, and shares fell about 3% after hours. <https://www.euronews.com/2026/11/03/apple-earnings-beat-expectations-but-rising-chip-costs-worry-investors> - 2026-11-02 [negative] MRVL: Marvell falls 13% and Lumentum 19% on the all-stock megadeal - Investors questioned the 115B all-stock purchase. Because Lumentum holders get a fixed 4.5 Marvell shares each, Lumentum fell with Marvell. <https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/marvells-115-billion-lumentum-acquisition-133000048.html> - 2026-11-02 [negative] MU: Chips sold off Monday: MU -5.8%, NVDA -1.3%, AMZN +2.2% - Money rotated out of tech, and the Nasdaq fell 1.1% while the Dow rose. Apple fell 1.8% in the regular session ahead of its results. <https://cappnotes.substack.com/p/closing-look-monday-november-2-2026> - 2026-11-03 [positive] BE: Bloom up about 11% on Barclays upgrade and 1 GW MOU - Barclays to Overweight, $289 target; non-binding MOU with California Resources for at least 1 GW of fuel cells with carbon capture. <https://invezz.com/news/2026/11/03/why-is-bloom-energy-stock-rising-10-today/> - 2026-11-03 [positive] NET: JPMorgan upgrades Cloudflare to Overweight - Target $350; results Thursday Nov 5. <https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/11/03/buy-sell-or-hold-tuesdays-top-upgrades-and-downgrades-aon-bloom-energy-chevron-cloudflare-marvell-technologies-lumentum-holdings-merck-co-roku-x-energy-and-more/> - 2026-11-03 [negative] SKHY: SK hynix about -5% as KOSPI drops over 3% - Korea memory names fell early Tuesday after Monday's 3.4% SOX slide. <https://www.home.saxo/en-mena/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take---us-mid-term-elections-today-the-focus---3-november-2026-03112026> - 2026-11-03 [negative] RBA: RBA hikes to 4.85% in a 6-3 vote - Second hike in two meetings; inflation seen above band until late 2027. <https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-30.html> - 2026-11-02 [neutral] AAPL: Apple beats on revenue, guides margin 45-46% on memory costs - Revenue $114.5B, iPhone +17%; Greater China missed; shares lower Tuesday. <https://www.macrumors.com/2026/11/02/apple-4q-2026-earnings/> - 2026-11-02 [positive] PLTR: Palantir revenue +96% to $2.313B, FY guide raised - Q4 guide $2.649-2.653B; US commercial +148%. <https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001321655/000132165526000045/a2026q3ex991pressrelease.htm> ## Notes Midday Tuesday run; all holding prices null (prior closes kept). Indicators not checked this run. Lumentum close not found, so the Marvell-Lumentum spread is not computed. Not checked: most watchlist names, Nikkei (likely holiday), Apple Tuesday move, company news for AXOS BABA ENPH FIGR LDI NFLX RKT TSM.
Nothing here is financial advice. Holdings and opinions are my own; the "agent" sections are written by an automated research skill and may be wrong. Built 2026-11-03 18:39 UTC.