# Research run 2026-11-04T18:40 UTC ## What changed - Democrats take both chambers; Dow up about 2.9% intraday, oil down 8%, 10-yr near 4.9%. - Mega-caps lead: AMZN +7%, GOOGL +5%, META +2%; NVDA -1% as AI hardware lags. - Texas governor result pledges a data-centre pause; VRT -14%, GEV -10%, BE -8% intraday. - AMD beats in Q3, up 7% after hours; added to watchlist. CRDO dropped. - Next: Cloudflare Thu after US close (Fri 9am AEDT); jobs Fri (Sat 00:30 AEDT); Nvidia Nov 17. ## Market summary Democrats won both chambers in the midterms and US stocks rallied: Dow up about 2.9%, Nasdaq up 1.9% intraday. Treasury yields slipped a few bps, the 10-year near 4.9%, and oil fell more than 8% on expectations of pressure to end the Iran war; no confirmed progress in Iran talks was found. AI leaders lagged (NVDA, MU, TSM about -1%) while mega-cap platforms led, though AMD's Q3 beat (+7% after hours) supports AI capex demand. ADP showed 86,000 private jobs in October; ISM services and ARM/QCOM results were not yet confirmed at time of writing. No material China news found. ## Holdings - AMZN: hold - Up about 7% intraday Nov 4 in the post-midterm rally. AWS AI demand thesis unchanged. - AXOS: hold - No material news since Nov 3. Lower yields help bank margins at the margin. - BABA: hold - No material news since Nov 3. China cloud and AI thesis unchanged. - ENPH: watch - Renewables bid on a Democratic Congress, but policy changes take time. Keep on watch until demand turns. - FIGR: hold - No material news since Nov 3. - GOOGL: hold - Up about 5% intraday Nov 4 as mega-caps led the midterm rally. - LDI: hold - Falling yields after the midterms are a modest tailwind for mortgage volumes. - META: hold - Up about 2% intraday Nov 4. No company news. - MRVL: watch - No new company news. AI names lagged the broad rally; stay on watch. - MU: hold - Down about 1% while AI-linked names lagged the rally. Memory pricing thesis intact. - NFLX: hold - No material news since Nov 3. - NVDA: hold - Down about 1% Nov 4 as money rotated away from AI leaders. AMD beat is supportive read-across for AI demand. - OPENAI: hold - No new valuation reported since last run. - RKT: hold - Lower yields after the midterms help refinance volumes at the margin. - STRIPE: hold - No new valuation reported since last run. - TSM: hold - Down about 1% in Asia trade. AMD beat supports leading-edge demand. ## Watchlist changes - added AMD:US (watch, medium conviction) - removed CRDO:US - Low conviction and overlaps ALAB and AVGO in AI connectivity; MaxLinear second-source risk on 1.6T AECs. Fell 10.4% Nov 4 intraday to $135.16. Replaced by AMD, which just guided Q4 to about $17B. ## Watchlist - ALAB:US Astera Labs - watch (medium) - Nov 4 about 1:40pm ET (intraday, not final): $219.29 (-6.1%) despite a strong Q3 on Nov 3. Revenue $584.9M (+154% y/y, +49% q/q) vs a $540-560M guide; non-GAAP EPS $1.32 vs $1.16-1.21 guide; gross margin 72.4%. Q4 guide $730-750M revenue, non-GAAP EPS $1.62-1.66. Scorpio fabric switches are now the largest product line. Stock is about 43% below the Oct 7 close of $382.25. - AMD:US Advanced Micro Devices - watch (medium) - Added. Nov 4 about 1:40pm ET (intraday, not final): $483.42 (-0.1%), after +3.7% Nov 3 and an after-hours jump that faded. Q3 revenue a record $13.4B; data centre $8.5B (+97%), 64% of revenue; non-GAAP EPS $2.09 vs $1.95 expected. Q4 guide about $17B (+/-3%, about +66% y/y) and 55% gross margin. Meta, Microsoft, OpenAI, Oracle and Anthropic are running on Helios. - AVGO:US Broadcom - accumulate (medium) - Nov 4 about 1:40pm ET (intraday, not final): $327.51 (-1.4%) after +3.1% Nov 3. Held up better than AI-infra peers. Custom accelerators for Google, Meta, OpenAI and Anthropic plus Ethernet networking; the $63B Anthropic leasing vehicle (Oct 26) delivers from 2027. AMD's Q4 guide of about $17B (Nov 3) says AI-chip demand is still rising. - CLS:US Celestica - accumulate (high) - Nov 4 about 1:40pm ET (intraday, not final): $234.17 (-9.9%) after +4.3% Nov 3; about 22% below the Oct 28 close of $299.80. No company news; fell with data-centre hardware on the election result. Q3 revenue $5.83B (+83%); 2027 outlook $40B revenue and $21.50 EPS, so the stock is now about 11x the 2027 EPS guide. - SKHY:US SK hynix - accumulate (high) - Nov 4 about 1:40pm ET (intraday, not final): $143.94 (-4.5%) after +2.1% Nov 3. Q3 operating profit about KRW 83.3T on revenue over KRW 100T; HBM4 in mass production and expected to pass HBM3E in Q4. TrendForce DRAM spot softened Nov 4 (DDR4 16Gb -0.96%, DDR5 16Gb -0.27%). - BE:US Bloom Energy - accumulate (medium) - Nov 4 about 1:40pm ET (intraday, not final): $196.60 (-8.1%), giving back the Nov 3 gain (+9.1%) on Barclays' upgrade and the 1 GW California Resources MOU. Q3 revenue $1.236B (+138%); 2026 guide $4.4-4.6B. Onsite fuel cells are one answer to grid delays, but Nov 4 traded as an AI-power basket. - GEV:US GE Vernova - accumulate (high) - Nov 4 about 1:40pm ET (intraday, not final): $823.99 (-10.3%) after +6.5% Nov 3. Argus cut its target to $1,100 from $1,300 (Buy kept); the stock fell with Vertiv and Eaton on the Democratic sweep. Analysts note only about 20% of contracted gas-turbine capacity serves data centres. Q3 orders +96%, backlog about $197-200B, buyback lifted to $20B. - VRT:US Vertiv - accumulate (medium) - Nov 4 about 1:40pm ET (intraday, not final): $203.91 (-13.6%), the worst on the list, after +5.2% Nov 3; now about 17% below the Oct 29 close. Fell on fears a Democratic Congress and a Texas moratorium slow data-centre builds. Q3 revenue +61% to $4.31B; backlog orders are not affected by Congress. - HOOD:US Robinhood Markets - watch (medium) - Nov 4 about 1:40pm ET (intraday, not final): $88.07 (+2.8%), up for a second day and one of the few names rising with the broad rally (Dow about +2.9%). Q3 revenue $1.42B (+12%); options +31%, event contracts $173M (6x+); net deposits $15.7B. - MELI:US MercadoLibre - accumulate (medium) - Nov 4 about 1:40pm ET (intraday, not final): $1,754.09 (+5.5%) ahead of Q3 results after the close today (confirmed by the company Oct 29). Consensus about $10.7B revenue (+44%). Q2 net revenue was $10.2B (+50%) while operating income fell 17%; margin trend is the key number. - NET:US Cloudflare - accumulate (high) - Nov 4 about 1:40pm ET (intraday, not final): $264.19 (-3.5%) after +3.2% Nov 3 on JPMorgan's upgrade to Overweight ($350 target). Down about 17% from the Oct 28 close of $318.72 into Q3 results Thursday. Guide was $736-737M revenue; Q2 was $696M (+36%). - SE:US Sea Limited - watch (low) - Nov 4 about 1:40pm ET (intraday, not final): $81.38 (+6.0%), fourth straight up day and about 10% above the Oct 30 close. No company news found; consumer and e-commerce names led the post-election rally. Q2 revenue $7.79B (+48%). - 6861:JP Keyence - buy (high) - US OTC line (KYCCF) Nov 4 about 1:40pm ET (intraday, not final): $487.00 (+3.4%) after a 4.9% drop Nov 2. First half (Oct 29): sales JPY 735.4B (+34.9%), operating profit JPY 408.3B (+50%), margin 55.5%. Interim dividend JPY 325; 5-for-1 split effective Nov 21. - ASML:US ASML Holding - buy (high) - Nov 4 about 1:40pm ET (intraday, not final): $1,498.00 (-3.5%) after +1.7% Nov 3; about 11% below the Oct 28 close. No company news; interim dividend EUR 1.88 paid Nov 4. Q3 sales a record EUR 11.66B; 2026 guide EUR 44-45B and 2027-28 supply short of demand. - TER:US Teradyne - accumulate (medium) - Nov 4 about 1:40pm ET (intraday, not final): $250.00 (-7.2%) after +3.2% Nov 3; about 20% below the Oct 28 close. No company news. Q3 revenue $1,306M (vs $769M a year ago); non-GAAP EPS $2.29; Semi Test $1,072M. ## Bellwether changes - h100_rental: Silicon Data SDH100RT $2.92/hr on Oct 31, up 2c from $2.90 Oct 30 and +1.4% on the week (Oct 24 $2.88). Page's '+5.4% 7d' matches Oct 2 to Oct 31 ($2.77 to $2.92)./bullish -> Silicon Data SDH100RT $2.96/hr on Nov 4, flat on Nov 3 and up 4c from $2.92 Oct 31; +2.1% on the week (Oct 28 $2.90). Another new high./bullish - b200_rental: Silicon Data B200 $6.64 on Oct 31, up 17c from $6.47 Oct 28 and +2.9% on the week (Oct 24 $6.45); a new high. B200/H100 ratio 2.27x (6.64/2.92). Both above the $4.50 and 2x triggers./bullish -> Silicon Data B200 $6.53 on Nov 4, down 11c from the Oct 31 high of $6.64 but +0.9% on the week (Oct 28 $6.47). B200/H100 ratio 2.21x (6.53/2.96). Both above the $4.50 and 2x triggers./bullish - hopper_residual: A100 index $1.56 Oct 28 (+0.6% 7d; trigger $1.50), flat, six cents above the floor. H200 $3.47. Silicon Data residual study (Jan 30 data): used H100 ~65-75% of new at 2 yrs, 45-55% at 3 yrs. No GPU useful-life cut reported in MSFT or GOOGL headlines Oct 28 (filings not read)./bullish -> A100 index $1.58 Nov 4, up 2c from $1.56 (Oct 28-Nov 1); 8c above the $1.50 floor. H200 $3.51 (from $3.47). No new useful-life cut found./bullish - dc_cost_per_gw: 10-yr Treasury about 4.93% at the Oct 30 close, down about 6bp on the day and 12bp below the 5.05% Oct 28 print. WTI $102.95. Build cost unchanged near $50B per GW (Huang, Oct 21)./neutral -> 10-yr Treasury about 4.90-4.93% Nov 4, down from about 4.96% on election day; touched about 4.89%, lowest since early September. US crude down more than 8% Nov 4. Build cost still near $50B per GW (Huang, Oct 21)./neutral - memory_prices: TrendForce spot Nov 2: DDR5 16Gb $61.50 (0.00%), DDR4 16Gb $82.72 (-0.09%). Contract table now 2H Sep: DDR4 16Gb $52.00 (+4.0%). SK hynix +4.5% in Seoul Nov 2; Kioxia -16% on a weak Dec-quarter guide./bullish -> TrendForce spot Nov 4: DDR5 16Gb $61.33 (-0.27%), DDR4 16Gb $81.93 (-0.96%). Contract table still 2H Sep: DDR4 16Gb $52.00 (+4.0%). October contract update (Oct 30) not shown in the table./neutral - power_bottleneck: PJM to file a revised reliability-backstop plan (6.8 GW shortfall) at FERC by Oct 29; large-load registry compliance filing due ~Nov 9. TCEQ data-centre permit pause still in force, no end date. UK: Microsoft dropped Nscale's Essex site after grid told it power would not arrive until the 2030s./bullish -> Nov 3 election: Democrats won Congress and Gina Hinojosa won Texas governor on a pledge for an immediate data-centre moratorium (not yet law). Texas holds about 25-30% of planned US data-centre GW (Wells Fargo, Ives); Bernstein puts about 244 GW (56% of the pipeline) as politically exposed but calls the risk overstated. More than 30 local ballot measures restricting data centres passed (Semafor). TCEQ permit pause still in force./bearish - capex_vs_backlog: Amazon Q3: cash capex about $75.9B, 2026 kept at about $220B, 2027 'meaningfully more' (no figure). AWS +39% to about $46B; AWS backlog $578B (from $496B). Trailing 12-month FCF about -$42B. EPS $1.89 vs $1.96 expected. Alphabet closed -12.6% Oct 29; Amazon about -2% Oct 30 after -7% early./neutral -> AMD Q4 guide about $17B (+66% y/y) with data centre $8.5B in Q3 (+97%); Meta, Microsoft, OpenAI, Oracle and Anthropic running on Helios. Amazon keeps 2026 capex about $220B and 2027 'meaningfully more'; AWS backlog $578B. Hyperscalers rallied 3-7% Nov 4./bullish - neocloud_credit: CoreWeave five-year CDS 1,148bp on Oct 26 (S&P Global), off a 12-month peak of 1,167bp on Oct 22 and up from 835bp a month earlier; implies about a 62% five-year default probability. 9.75% 2031 notes ~79c (yield near 16%) in the week to Oct 23. Q3 date not announced./bearish -> CoreWeave CDS widened again Nov 4 (CNBC, no level published); last confirmed level about 1,041bp on Oct 27 (Markit), off the 1,194.5bp record. Shares fell 6-7% Nov 4; Citi cut its target to $128 from $159 (Buy kept). Neocloud stocks about -6%./bearish - nvidia_dc: Nvidia committed $3B (Oct 27) to Meta's stock offering, turning last week's non-binding interest into a purchase, alongside Meta expanding Vera Rubin and Vera CPU deployment. Rubin in full production; Google Cloud Rubin GA next month. GTC Washington keynote Dec 1./bullish -> Q3 FY27 results confirmed for Tue Nov 17 (call 5:00pm ET). FT (Nov 3): Nvidia asking cloud partners to sell at least 51% of new capacity to non-Chinese customers. The Information (Oct 30): Nvidia in talks to guarantee debt for Nscale's Anthropic site in West Virginia. Stock about -1% Nov 4./neutral ## Calendar changes - 2026-11-04-meli-q3: 2026-11-04 TBC (provisional on IR calendar; recent calls 17:00 ET = 09:00 AEDT Thu Nov 5) -> 2026-11-04 After US close; call 17:00 ET (09:00 AEDT Thu Nov 5) - added 2026-11-06 FED Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman on supervision and regulation - 2026-11-09-cftc-gpu-futures: 2026-11-09 TBC -> 2026-11-09 End of CFTC extended review (no set time) - added 2026-11-10 TSM TSMC October 2026 revenue - added 2026-11-10 CRWV CoreWeave Q3 2026 results and call - added 2026-11-12 AMAT Applied Materials fiscal Q4 2026 results and call - added 2026-11-12 CSCO Cisco fiscal Q1 2027 results (date not confirmed) - added 2026-11-17 NVDA Nvidia Q3 fiscal 2027 results and call - added 2026-11-18 FED FOMC minutes, Oct 27-28 meeting - removed 2026-11-02-aapl-q4 - removed 2026-11-02-us-ism-mfg - removed 2026-11-02-pltr-q3 - removed 2026-11-03-alab-q3 - removed 2026-11-03-amd-q3 - removed 2026-11-03-us-jolts - removed 2026-11-03-us-midterms - removed 2026-11-03-rba-decision - removed 2026-11-03-smci-q1-fy27 ## New news (6) - 2026-11-04 [positive] MARKET: Democrats win Congress; stocks rally, oil falls over 8% - Dow up about 2.9%, S&P 500 up 1.8%, Nasdaq up 1.9% intraday. 10-year yield down a few bps near 4.9%. Crude down more than 8% on pressure to end the Iran war. <https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/03/stock-market-today-live-updates.html> - 2026-11-04 [negative] VRT: AI power stocks slide after Democrats win Congress and Texas governor - Vertiv fell about 14% intraday, GE Vernova about 10%, Bloom Energy about 8%. Gina Hinojosa won Texas on a data-centre moratorium pledge; Texas holds about 25-30% of planned US data-centre GW. Bernstein calls the risk overstated. <https://www.tikr.com/blog/vertiv-sinks-9-ge-vernova-down-8-as-democrats-win-congress-reviving-data-center-fears> - 2026-11-03 [positive] ALAB: Astera Labs Q3 revenue $584.9M, guides Q4 to $730-750M - Revenue +154% y/y and above the $540-560M guide; non-GAAP EPS $1.32. Q4 guide implies about +26% q/q. Shares still fell about 6% Nov 4 with AI infrastructure. <https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001736297/000173629726000044/q326exhibit991.htm> - 2026-11-03 [positive] AMD: AMD data-centre revenue +97%; guides Q4 to about $17B - Q3 revenue $13.4B, data centre $8.5B, non-GAAP EPS $2.09 vs $1.95 expected. Q4 guide about +66% y/y with 55% gross margin; RBC says 2-4% above consensus. <https://ir.amd.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1303/amd-reports-third-quarter-2026-financial-results> - 2026-11-03 [neutral] NVDA: Nvidia reportedly tells cloud partners to cap Chinese customers at 49% - FT report: new contracts must sell at least 51% of services to non-Chinese firms; existing deals not affected. Nvidia did not confirm. Nvidia was about 1% lower Nov 4. <https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/data-centers/nvidia-tells-data-center-operators-to-limit-business-from-chinese-customers-with-new-global-restrictions-report-claims-allegedly-restricted-to-49-percent-of-the-total-ensuring-51-percent-are-non-chinese-outfits> - 2026-11-04 [negative] GEV: Argus cuts GE Vernova target to $1,100 from $1,300, keeps Buy - Stock opened at $855.25 against a $918.20 prior close and fell about 10% intraday with AI-power names. <https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/price-ge-vernova-nyse-gev-shares-gap-down-on-analyst-downgrade-2026-11-04/> ## Notes Intraday Nov 4 readings, not closes. ARM, QCOM, MELI report after this run. Holdings news from one CNBC live blog; NET/HOOD/SPOT/BYD/Anthropic/Cursor had nothing material found.
Nothing here is financial advice. Holdings and opinions are my own; the "agent" sections are written by an automated research skill and may be wrong. Built 2026-11-04 18:43 UTC.