# Research run 2026-11-05T18:40 UTC ## What changed - Chips have their worst day since March 2020: MU -15%, MRVL -14%, NVDA and TSM about -10% intraday. - Nasdaq down about 5% into correction on fear of data-centre pauses after the Democratic sweep; no law exists yet. - GPU rents still at highs: H100 $2.97/hr, B200 $6.70, up 6-14% on the week while the stocks fall. - 10-yr falls to 4.83% and December hike odds slip to about 70%; rate-sensitive names still fell. - Next: Cloudflare results Fri 9am AEDT; jobs Sat 00:30 AEDT; CPI Wed Nov 11; Nvidia Wed Nov 18. ## Market summary Nasdaq -5.2% (now in correction) and S&P 500 -3.9% on Nov 5, the S&P's worst day since April 2025. Chips had their worst day since March 2020 (SOXX about -11%) on fears that the Democratic midterm sweep and a proposed data-centre moratorium will slow AI capex. Investors moved into Treasuries: the 10-year fell to 4.83% and the 2-year dropped 10bp. Odds of a December Fed hike fell to about 70% from 83%, although Barkin still expects gradual hikes. Oil fell more than 8% overnight on hopes that the Qatar-brokered Iran talks end the war, and Alibaba rose while US tech fell. ## Holdings - AMZN: hold - Down 2.6% in the tech selloff. Much smaller move than chips. Forward P/E about 26. - AXOS: hold - Down 1.9% with the broader market. No company news. Forward P/E about 9. - BABA: hold - Up 1.4% while US tech fell. Not exposed to the US data-centre politics. Forward P/E about 13. - ENPH: watch - Down 10% in a risk-off session. No company-specific news found. Forward P/E about 28. - FIGR: hold - Down 10% as small caps (Russell 2000 -4.6%) fell into correction. Q3 results expected mid-November. - GOOGL: hold - Down 2% while chips fell 9-15%. Forward P/E about 21. - LDI: hold - Down 7%. Lower Treasury yields help mortgage lenders, but the stock trades on sentiment. No forward P/E shown. - META: hold - Down 4% on concerns about AI capex and debt. Forward P/E about 18. - MRVL: watch - Down 14%, one of the worst holdings, as AI infrastructure names sold off. Forward P/E about 24. - MU: hold - Down 15%. Memory names were hit hardest (SanDisk -20%). Forward P/E under 4 points to peak-earnings pricing. - NFLX: hold - Down 1.6%. Not tied to AI capex. Forward P/E about 18. - NVDA: hold - Down about 9% as semis had their worst day since March 2020. Forward P/E about 15. - OPENAI: hold - Private. The selloff in public AI infrastructure names and Sanders' call for a data-centre moratorium are risks to AI funding. No new valuation reported. - RKT: hold - Down 1.7%. A 6bp fall in the 10-year yield helps mortgage demand. Forward P/E about 25. - STRIPE: hold - Private. No new valuation reported this run. - TSM: hold - Down about 10% with the chip sector. No company news. Forward P/E about 17. ## Watchlist - ALAB:US Astera Labs - watch (medium) - Nov 5 about 1:36pm ET (intraday, not final): $186.06 (-16.7%) after $223.27 (-4.4%) Nov 4. No company news; sold with AI chips on midterm data-centre fears. Q3 (Nov 3) revenue $584.9M (+154% y/y), Q4 guide $730-750M. Now about 51% below the Oct 7 close of $382.25. - AMD:US Advanced Micro Devices - watch (medium) - Nov 5 about 1:36pm ET (intraday, not final): $413.06 (-15.5%) after $488.78 (+1.0%) Nov 4. Among the worst S&P decliners as AI chips sold off on the Democratic sweep. Q3 revenue $13.4B, data centre $8.5B (+97%); Q4 guide about $17B. - ASML:US ASML - buy (high) - Nov 5 about 1:36pm ET (intraday, not final): $1,383.22 (-7.6%) after $1,496.30 (-3.6%) Nov 4. EUV monopoly; fell with chips on data-centre fears. - AVGO:US Broadcom - accumulate (medium) - Nov 5 about 1:36pm ET (intraday, not final): $297.31 (-8.7%) after $325.48 (-2.0%) Nov 4; held up better than AMD and ALAB. Custom accelerators for Google, Meta, OpenAI and Anthropic plus Ethernet; $63B Anthropic lease vehicle delivers from 2027. - CLS:US Celestica - accumulate (high) - Nov 5 about 1:36pm ET (intraday, not final): $206.01 (-12.9%) after $236.41 (-9.1%) Nov 4; about 31% below the Oct 28 close of $299.80. No company news. 2027 outlook $40B revenue and $21.50 EPS puts it near 9.6x 2027 EPS. - SKHY:US SK hynix - accumulate (high) - Nov 5 about 1:36pm ET (intraday, not final): $126.18 (-11.8%) after $143.07 (-5.1%) Nov 4. Kospi fell 5.3%. Q3 operating profit about KRW 83.3T; HBM4 in mass production. Qualcomm blamed its miss on higher memory costs, which shows pricing power. - VRT:US Vertiv - accumulate (medium) - Nov 5 about 1:36pm ET (intraday, not final): $175.05 (-14.8%) after $205.55 (-12.9%) Nov 4; about 26% down in two sessions. No company news; pure data-centre policy selling. - BE:US Bloom Energy - accumulate (medium) - Nov 5 about 1:36pm ET (intraday, not final): $166.72 (-16.8%) after $200.40 (-6.4%) Nov 4; the Nov 3 Barclays-upgrade gain is gone. Q3 revenue $1.236B (+138%); 2026 guide $4.4-4.6B. - GEV:US GE Vernova - accumulate (high) - Nov 5 about 1:36pm ET (intraday, not final): $772.05 (-7.3%) after $832.83 (-9.3%) Nov 4. Only about 20% of contracted gas-turbine capacity serves data centres; backlog about $197-200B; buyback $20B. - HOOD:US Robinhood Markets - watch (medium) - Nov 5 about 1:36pm ET (intraday, not final): $77.15 (-11.7%) after $87.41 (+2.0%) Nov 4. No company news found; fell with high-beta growth as the S&P dropped about 3.5%. - MELI:US MercadoLibre - accumulate (medium) - Nov 5 about 1:36pm ET (intraday, not final): $1,509.27 (-13.3%) after Q3. Revenue $10.75B (+45%, +41% FX-neutral); operating income $676M (-6%), margin 6.3%; net income $448M (+6%), EPS $8.83. TPV $109B (+53%), GMV $23B (+38%), credit book about $18B (+62%). - NET:US Cloudflare - accumulate (high) - Nov 5 about 1:36pm ET (intraday, not final): $237.60 (-10.9%) ahead of Q3 results after the close today. Q3 guide (Aug 6) $736-737M revenue and $0.34 non-GAAP EPS; FY guide $2.864-2.870B. Results not yet out at time of writing. - SE:US Sea Limited - watch (low) - Nov 5 about 1:36pm ET (intraday, not final): $75.06 (-6.4%) after $80.19 (+4.5%) Nov 4. Shopee, Garena and Monee; less AI-exposed than most of the list. - 6861:JP Keyence - buy (high) - Factory automation sensors and vision, about 50% operating margin, net cash. Nikkei fell 1.8% Nov 5 vs Kospi -5.3%; Keyence is not a data-centre name. No fresh dated quote found. - TER:US Teradyne - accumulate (medium) - Nov 5 about 1:36pm ET (intraday, not final): $219.76 (-12.4%) after $250.99 (-6.8%) Nov 4. AI accelerator and HBM test demand. ## Bellwether changes - h100_rental: Silicon Data SDH100RT $2.96/hr on Nov 4, flat on Nov 3 and up 4c from $2.92 Oct 31; +2.1% on the week (Oct 28 $2.90). Another new high./bullish -> Silicon Data SDH100RT $2.97/hr (latest, Nov 5 page), +5.7% on 7 days. Another new high./bullish - b200_rental: Silicon Data B200 $6.53 on Nov 4, down 11c from the Oct 31 high of $6.64 but +0.9% on the week (Oct 28 $6.47). B200/H100 ratio 2.21x (6.53/2.96). Both above the $4.50 and 2x triggers./bullish -> B200 $6.70 (+13.9% on 7 days), new high; ratio 2.26x (6.70/2.97)./bullish - hopper_residual: A100 index $1.58 Nov 4, up 2c from $1.56 (Oct 28-Nov 1); 8c above the $1.50 floor. H200 $3.51 (from $3.47). No new useful-life cut found./bullish -> A100 $1.58 (+3.9% on 7 days), 8c above the $1.50 floor; H200 $3.51 (+5.7%)./neutral - dc_cost_per_gw: 10-yr Treasury about 4.90-4.93% Nov 4, down from about 4.96% on election day; touched about 4.89%, lowest since early September. US crude down more than 8% Nov 4. Build cost still near $50B per GW (Huang, Oct 21)./neutral -> 10-yr Treasury 4.83% midday Nov 5, from 4.90% Nov 4 and 4.95% election night (above 5.30% last month). Brent +2.6% to $97.11 after a near-9% drop Nov 4./bullish - memory_prices: TrendForce spot Nov 4: DDR5 16Gb $61.33 (-0.27%), DDR4 16Gb $81.93 (-0.96%). Contract table still 2H Sep: DDR4 16Gb $52.00 (+4.0%). October contract update (Oct 30) not shown in the table./neutral -> TrendForce spot Nov 5: DDR5 16Gb 60.667 (-1.09%), DDR4 16Gb 81.679 (-0.30%). Second day of declines./neutral - power_bottleneck: Nov 3 election: Democrats won Congress and Gina Hinojosa won Texas governor on a pledge for an immediate data-centre moratorium (not yet law). Texas holds about 25-30% of planned US data-centre GW (Wells Fargo, Ives); Bernstein puts about 244 GW (56% of the pipeline) as politically exposed but calls the risk overstated. More than 30 local ballot measures restricting data centres passed (Semafor). TCEQ permit pause still in force./bearish -> Second day of selling on the Democratic sweep: VRT about -15%, BE -17%, GEV -7% intraday Nov 5. No new law or moratorium passed yet./bearish - capex_vs_backlog: AMD Q4 guide about $17B (+66% y/y) with data centre $8.5B in Q3 (+97%); Meta, Microsoft, OpenAI, Oracle and Anthropic running on Helios. Amazon keeps 2026 capex about $220B and 2027 'meaningfully more'; AWS backlog $578B. Hyperscalers rallied 3-7% Nov 4./bullish -> No new hyperscaler capex cuts announced. AMD Q4 guide about $17B (+66%); Amazon 2027 capex 'meaningfully more'; AWS backlog $578B./bullish - neocloud_credit: CoreWeave CDS widened again Nov 4 (CNBC, no level published); last confirmed level about 1,041bp on Oct 27 (Markit), off the 1,194.5bp record. Shares fell 6-7% Nov 4; Citi cut its target to $128 from $159 (Buy kept). Neocloud stocks about -6%./bearish -> CoreWeave shares -12.1% midday Nov 5 after -6-7% Nov 4. No new CDS level published; last confirmed about 1,041bp Oct 27, record 1,194.5bp mid-October./bearish - nvidia_dc: Q3 FY27 results confirmed for Tue Nov 17 (call 5:00pm ET). FT (Nov 3): Nvidia asking cloud partners to sell at least 51% of new capacity to non-Chinese customers. The Information (Oct 30): Nvidia in talks to guarantee debt for Nscale's Anthropic site in West Virginia. Stock about -1% Nov 4./neutral -> Nvidia -7.5% midday Nov 5, the largest drag on the S&P, after -3.2% Nov 4. Q3 FY27 results Tue Nov 17, call 5:00pm ET./neutral ## Calendar changes - removed 2026-11-04-arm-q2-fy27 - removed 2026-11-04-asml-dividend - removed 2026-11-04-us-ism-services - removed 2026-11-04-meli-q3 - removed 2026-11-04-qcom-q4 - removed 2026-11-09-tsm-oct-revenue - 2026-11-10-tsm-oct-revenue: 2026-11-10 TBC (estimate; usually Taipei afternoon, evening AEDT) -> 2026-11-10 Taiwan afternoon (early AEDT evening) - 2026-11-05-ldi-q3: 2026-11-05 TBC (estimated after US close; about 08:05 AEDT Fri Nov 6) -> 2026-11-05 after close (date not confirmed) - added 2026-11-06 Michigan consumer sentiment, November preliminary - added 2026-11-13 US PPI, October 2026 (BLS) - added 2026-11-17 US advance retail sales, October 2026 - added 2026-11-20 Michigan consumer sentiment, November final ## New news (8) - 2026-11-05 [negative] NVDA: Chip stocks have worst day since March 2020; Nasdaq enters correction - SOXX fell about 11%. Nasdaq -5.2%, S&P 500 -3.9%, Dow down about 1,600 points. Traders fear a slower data-centre build-out after the Democratic midterm sweep. Nvidia and Broadcom were down about 9%, AMD and Micron about 15%. <https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/04/stock-market-today-live-updates.html> - 2026-11-05 [negative] MU: Memory names lead the losses: Micron -13%, SanDisk -20% midday - AI infrastructure names fell across the board: CoreWeave -12%, Corning -13%, Lumentum -14%, Astera Labs -15%. <https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/05/stocks-making-the-biggest-moves-midday-mu-tsla-trip-app-nvda.html> - 2026-11-05 [negative] META: Investors question how hyperscalers are funding AI capex - Barclays cites concern about how long the AI infrastructure supercycle can last. SOXX is down more than 23% in a month, while the Dow is up 4.1%. Goldman says a Democratic Congress could make data-centre builds slower and costlier. <https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/05/the-rotation-out-of-tech-is-becoming-a-risk-for-the-broader-market.html> - 2026-11-05 [positive] RKT: 10-year yield falls to 4.83%, 2-year down 10bp - Investors moved into Treasuries during the tech selloff. October payrolls are due Friday, with a 59k gain expected. Jobless claims came in at 189k. <https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/05/treasury-yields-bonds-interest-rates.html> - 2026-11-05 [negative] LDI: Barkin expects further gradual rate hikes - Richmond Fed President Barkin named inflation as the top risk, said AI is adding to price pressures, and flagged more than $500bn of hyperscaler debt as worth watching. He is not a voter until 2027. <https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/05/barkin-sees-interest-rate-hikes-ahead-but-at-a-gradual-pace.html> - 2026-11-02 [neutral] ENPH: Oil slips as Iran-Qatar talks continue for a third day - Brent was down 1.4%. Iran's foreign minister called the talks 'ongoing and progressing'. Oil later fell more than 8% overnight into Nov 5 on expectations of pressure to end the war. <https://www.nst.com.my/amp/business/economy/2026/11/1568718/oil-slips-more-1-cent-talks-continue-ending-iran-war> - 2026-11-05 [negative] MELI: MercadoLibre Q3: revenue +45%, operating income -6% - Revenue $10.75B; margin 6.3%; EPS $8.83; TPV +53%; credit book +62%. Stock about -13% intraday. <https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001099590/000109959026000027/meli-20260930xex991.htm> - 2026-11-05 [negative] AMD: AI chips sell off on midterm data-centre fears - S&P about -3.5% and Nasdaq -4.7% midday; AMD -14.6%, NVDA -7.5%, CoreWeave -12.1%; Kospi -5.3%. 10-yr yield 4.83%. <https://spectrumlocalnews.com/us/snplus/business/2026/11/05/stock-market-ai-chip-selloff> ## Notes Intraday Nov 5 (about 1:36pm ET), not closes. Forward P/E from stockanalysis.com for all public holdings; MU 3.8x looks odd, check next run. AXOS trades as AX on stockanalysis. NET reports after this run. No loved-company news found.
Nothing here is financial advice. Holdings and opinions are my own; the "agent" sections are written by an automated research skill and may be wrong. Built 2026-11-06 03:42 UTC.