# Research run 2026-11-08T05:00 UTC ## What changed - Chips bounce Fri after Thursday's rout: TSM +6.3%, MRVL +5.7%, MU +5.1%, NVDA +2.8%; Nasdaq +1.1%. - October payrolls +165k vs about 60k expected; markets now price about 80% odds of a December Fed hike. - S&P 500 still -2.7% on the week, its worst since April 2025; selloff is policy fear, not orders. - H100 rents top $3 an hour for the first time; GPU supply still tight. - FIGR +8.7%; NFLX -3.3%. Takes unchanged: ENPH and MRVL on watch, rest hold. - Next: CPI and CoreWeave Tue (Wed AEDT), AMAT and Cisco Thu, Nvidia Nov 17 (Wed Nov 18 AEDT). ## Market summary October payrolls rose 165k against roughly 60k expected, unemployment held at 4.1% and hourly pay rose 0.4%, so markets now price about a 78% chance of a December Fed hike and the 10-yr rose 2bp to 4.86%. Friday was a partial rebound after the worst week for the S&P 500 since April 2025 (-2.7%): Nasdaq +1.1%, S&P +0.3%, Dow -0.5%, chips about +4% after Thursday's 12% SOX drop (AMD +11%, MRVL +5.7%, MU +5.1%, NVDA +2.8%). The selloff was policy fear, not orders: the Democratic sweep and a Texas governor-elect who ran on pausing data centres hit power names hardest, while GPU rents kept setting highs and hyperscaler capex plans are unchanged. Brent sits near $98 after a steep weekly fall. Next week brings CPI (Tue), CoreWeave (Tue), AMAT and Cisco (Thu) and PPI (Fri), with Nvidia on Nov 17. ## Holdings - AMZN: hold - -0.4% on a tech rebound day; no company news. Regulation worries over data centres weigh, but nothing changes the thesis. - AXOS: hold - +0.2%, no news. Higher-for-longer rates after a strong jobs print are neutral to mildly positive for a bank. - BABA: hold - +1.3% with no company news; cheapest big-tech multiple in the book at about 14x forward. - ENPH: watch - -1.7% as 10-year yield rose to 4.86%; rate-hike odds above 80% keep pressure on residential solar financing. - FIGR: hold - +8.7%, the best holding on the day, with no specific news found; volatile, let it run. - GOOGL: hold - +0.8% in the rebound; no new company news. Regulatory headline risk rises after midterms but valuation near 21x forward. - LDI: hold - +2.3% but rising yields after the jobs beat are a headwind for mortgage origination volumes. - META: hold - +0.8%, no company news; about 18.5x forward is undemanding if AI capex worries fade. - MRVL: watch - +5.7% bounce only partly recovers Thursday's chip-index 12% drop; wait for regulation fears to settle. - MU: hold - +5.1% after a 17% fall Thursday; memory demand intact, swings remain large. - NFLX: hold - -3.3% while tech rallied, extending the slide since the October ad-revenue target cut; no new news. - NVDA: hold - +2.8% in the chip rebound; about 15x forward after the selloff, regulation fears are the main overhang. - OPENAI: hold - No new round or tender reported; AI-regulation fears hit public peers but do not change the mark. - RKT: hold - +1.6% despite higher yields; Fed hike odds above 80% are a headwind for refinance volume. - STRIPE: hold - No new round or tender reported since November 6; mark unchanged. - TSM: hold - +6.3%, the strongest chip rebound in the book; about 18x forward with record quarters behind it. ## Watchlist - ALAB:US Astera Labs - watch (medium) - Connectivity chips for AI racks; still growing fast. Fell 20% Nov 5, back 6% Nov 6. - AMD:US Advanced Micro Devices - watch (medium) - Q3 beat (rev $13.38B vs $13.09B est). Fell 17% Nov 5, rebounded 11% Nov 6. Thesis intact. - AVGO:US Broadcom - accumulate (medium) - Custom AI chips and networking. Lagged the rebound (+0.7% Nov 6 after -10%). - CLS:US Celestica - accumulate (high) - AI server and switch maker for hyperscalers. Down 21% in two days on capex fears, no rebound. - SKHY:US SK hynix - accumulate (high) - HBM leader; Q3 revenue passed 100T won, over half of 2027-28 capacity reportedly contracted. Fell 9.5% Nov 5 and 10.4% Nov 6. - BE:US Bloom Energy - accumulate (medium) - On-site fuel-cell power for data centres. Down 22% in two days, small bounce. - GEV:US GE Vernova - accumulate (high) - Gas turbines and grid gear sold out for years; demand not only data centres. Down 16% over two days. - VRT:US Vertiv - accumulate (medium) - Power and cooling for data centres. Down 25% in two days; most exposed to any build slowdown. - HOOD:US Robinhood - watch (medium) - Retail brokerage growth; trading volume tracks risk appetite. No change. - MELI:US MercadoLibre - accumulate (medium) - LatAm e-commerce and fintech leader. Down 12% Nov 5 and 1% Nov 6; Brazil election selling weighs. - NET:US Cloudflare - accumulate (high) - Q3 revenue $782.5M, +39%; guidance raised. Up 9.9% Nov 6. Thesis strengthened. - SE:US Sea Limited - watch (low) - Shopee, Garena, Monee in SE Asia. Down 6% Nov 5, flat Nov 6. No change. - 6861:JP Keyence - buy (high) - Factory automation sensors, ~50% operating margin. Down 8% over three days in the Tokyo selloff; thesis intact. - ASML:US ASML Holding - buy (high) - Sole EUV supplier; monopoly intact. Down 9% Nov 5, up 5% Nov 6. - TER:US Teradyne - accumulate (medium) - Chip test for AI and HBM plus robotics. Down 21% in two days. ## Bellwether changes - h100_rental: Silicon Data SDH100RT $2.97/hr (latest, Nov 5 page), +5.7% on 7 days. Another new high./bullish -> $3.04/hr, +6.7% on 7 days. New high, first print above $3./bullish - b200_rental: B200 $6.70 (+13.9% on 7 days), new high; ratio 2.26x (6.70/2.97)./bullish -> B200 $6.80, +14.7% on 7 days; ratio 2.24x./bullish - hopper_residual: A100 $1.58 (+3.9% on 7 days), 8c above the $1.50 floor; H200 $3.51 (+5.7%)./neutral -> A100 $1.59 (+3.9% on 7 days), 9c above the $1.50 floor; H200 $3.53 (+4.1%)./neutral - dc_cost_per_gw: 10-yr Treasury 4.83% midday Nov 5, from 4.90% Nov 4 and 4.95% election night (above 5.30% last month). Brent +2.6% to $97.11 after a near-9% drop Nov 4./bullish -> 10-yr 4.86% Nov 6 (+2bp on hot jobs), from 4.83% Nov 5. Brent -0.5% to $97.79./neutral - memory_prices: TrendForce spot Nov 5: DDR5 16Gb 60.667 (-1.09%), DDR4 16Gb 81.679 (-0.30%). Second day of declines./neutral -> Spot Nov 6: DDR5 16Gb 60.167 (-0.82%), DDR4 16Gb 80.815 (-1.06%). Third day of declines./neutral - power_bottleneck: Second day of selling on the Democratic sweep: VRT about -15%, BE -17%, GEV -7% intraday Nov 5. No new law or moratorium passed yet./bearish -> VRT fell about 13% then 16% on Nov 4-5; GEV and Eaton about -9-10% on Nov 4. No law or moratorium passed./bearish - capex_vs_backlog: No new hyperscaler capex cuts announced. AMD Q4 guide about $17B (+66%); Amazon 2027 capex 'meaningfully more'; AWS backlog $578B./bullish -> No capex cuts announced. AMD +11% Nov 6 on Q4 guide about $17B; Cisco guides $18.0-18.2B for Nov 12./bullish - neocloud_credit: CoreWeave shares -12.1% midday Nov 5 after -6-7% Nov 4. No new CDS level published; last confirmed about 1,041bp Oct 27, record 1,194.5bp mid-October./bearish -> No new November CDS print. October: 2031 bonds yield above 15%, about 79c; CDS record 1,194.5bp Oct 15./bearish - nvidia_dc: Nvidia -7.5% midday Nov 5, the largest drag on the S&P, after -3.2% Nov 4. Q3 FY27 results Tue Nov 17, call 5:00pm ET./neutral -> Nvidia +2.8% Nov 6 after a heavy week. Q3 FY27 Tue Nov 17, call 5pm ET; guide $108B +/-2%, GM 74%./neutral ## Calendar changes - 2026-11-09-cftc-gpu-futures: 2026-11-09 End of CFTC extended review (no set time) -> 2026-11-09 No set time - added 2026-11-09 MACRO China CPI and PPI, October - 2026-11-09-ldi-q3: 2026-11-09 TBC -> 2026-11-09 TBC (date not confirmed) - 2026-11-10-us-cpi: 2026-11-10 08:30 ET Tue (00:30 AEDT Wed Nov 11; US on standard time) -> 2026-11-10 8:30am ET (Wed 12:30am AEDT) - 2026-11-10-crwv-q3: 2026-11-10 After US close; call 17:00 ET (09:00 AEDT Wed Nov 11) -> 2026-11-10 After close; call 5:00pm ET (Wed 9:00am AEDT) - 2026-11-10-se-q3: 2026-11-10 Before US open Tue; call 07:30 ET (23:30 AEDT Tue Nov 10) -> 2026-11-10 Before open; call 7:30am ET (11:30pm AEDT Tue) - 2026-11-10-tsm-oct-revenue: 2026-11-10 Taiwan afternoon (early AEDT evening) -> 2026-11-10 Taiwan afternoon (early evening AEDT) - 2026-11-12-amat-q4: 2026-11-12 After US close; call 16:30 ET (08:30 AEDT Fri Nov 13) -> 2026-11-12 After close; call 4:30pm ET (Fri 8:30am AEDT) - 2026-11-12-csco-q1-fy27: 2026-11-12 TBC (estimated after US close; last year's call was 16:30 ET) -> 2026-11-12 After close; call 4:30pm ET (Fri 8:30am AEDT) - 2026-11-12-figr-q3: 2026-11-12 Before US open Thu; call 08:30 ET (00:30 AEDT Fri Nov 13) -> 2026-11-12 Before open; call 8:30am ET (Fri 12:30am AEDT) - 2026-11-13-us-ppi: 2026-11-13 8:30am ET (00:30 AEDT Sat Nov 14) -> 2026-11-13 8:30am ET (Sat 12:30am AEDT) - 2026-11-13-aapl-homeview: 2026-11-13 Availability Fri Nov 13 -> 2026-11-13 Availability - 2026-11-17-us-retail-sales: 2026-11-17 8:30am ET (00:30 AEDT Wed Nov 18) -> 2026-11-17 8:30am ET (Wed 12:30am AEDT) - added 2026-11-17 MACRO US import and export prices, October - 2026-11-17-nvda-q3-fy27: 2026-11-17 Commentary ~13:20 PT / 16:20 ET; call 14:00 PT / 17:00 ET Tue (09:00 AEDT Wed Nov 18) -> 2026-11-17 After close; call 5:00pm ET (Wed 9:00am AEDT) - 2026-11-18-fomc-minutes: 2026-11-18 14:00 ET Wed (06:00 AEDT Thu Nov 19) -> 2026-11-18 2:00pm ET (Thu 6:00am AEDT) - 2026-11-20-umich-final: 2026-11-20 10:00am ET (02:00 AEDT Sat Nov 21) -> 2026-11-20 10:00am ET (Sat 2:00am AEDT) ## New news (6) - 2026-11-06 [neutral] MARKET: October payrolls rise 165,000, unemployment falls to 4.1% - BLS: payrolls +165k against a 12-month average of 48k; hourly earnings +0.4% m/m, +3.1% y/y; August and September revised up a combined 84k. <https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm> - 2026-11-06 [negative] MARKET: Reuters: traders hope tech storm blows out; Fed hike odds above 80% - Thursday's 5.5% Nasdaq drop erased about $2.5 trillion on midterm AI-regulation and data-centre backlash fears. CPI Tuesday and PPI Friday next; Fed meets Dec 8-9. <https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/take-five-tech-wreck-and-roll-5006749> - 2026-11-06 [positive] NVDA: Chips lead partial rebound after record-scale selloff - Tech was the best sector, +1.45%; NVDA +2.8%, MU +5.1%, MRVL +5.7% as the Nasdaq-100 rose 1.35%, while the S&P 500 still lost 2.7% on the week. <https://cappnotes.substack.com/p/closing-look-friday-november-6-2026> - 2026-11-06 [positive] NET: Cloudflare up 9.9% after Q3 beat - Q3 revenue $782.5M (+39%); Q4 guide about $845M. Stock closed $268.75. <https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001477333/000147733326000060/q326exhibit991.htm> - 2026-11-06 [negative] SKHY: SK hynix falls another 10% in Seoul - Down 10.4% to 1,132,000 won after -9.5% Nov 5, missing the US rebound. <https://stockanalysis.com/quote/krx/000660/history/> - 2026-11-06 [neutral] AMD: Chips bounce after worst day since 2020 - SOX fell 12.25% Nov 5; AMD rebounded 11%, ASML 5%, SOXX 3.5% on Nov 6. <https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/11/06/chip-stocks-just-had-their-second-worst-day-on-record/> ## Notes Fan-out: holdings/loves, watchlist, bellwethers+calendar+macro. No watchlist changes. No new Stripe/OpenAI marks. MU forward P/E from stockanalysis looks low (peak-cycle EPS) but kept as listed. BABA Q2 date not announced. No November CoreWeave CDS reading found.
Nothing here is financial advice. Holdings and opinions are my own; the "agent" sections are written by an automated research skill and may be wrong. Built 2026-11-08 13:38 UTC.