# Research run 2026-11-10T13:40 UTC ## What changed - Nvidia -4.3% Monday as its board probes the CEO, while the chip index rose 6.9%. - loanDepot Q3 missed: loss widened to $29M, volume -12%; shares -17%. Take moved to trim. - S&P 500 +2.35%, best day since April; MU +6.3%, MRVL +9.5%, META +5.1%. - TSMC October revenue +59.7% year on year. - Anthropic to set its IPO range this week, with trading expected next week. - Next: US CPI tonight 8:30am ET (Wed 12:30am AEDT); CoreWeave after close; Nvidia Nov 17. ## Market summary Mon Nov 9: S&P 500 +2.35% (best day since April), Nasdaq +2.74%, SOXX +7.5% with AMD +13% and Broadcom +9%, but Nvidia -4.3% after its board opened a probe into reports Jensen Huang was the target of a foreign intelligence effort. 10-yr rose 2bp to 4.88% and 2-yr 5bp to 4.56%; futures price about 78% odds of a December hike, with October CPI tonight (8:30am ET, consensus +0.3%). Brent fell 5.9% to $92.57 and power names rebounded: Constellation +10.5%, NRG +10.3%, Caterpillar +7.2% on Anthropic buying about $3.4B of its gas generators; no data-centre power law has passed. China October PPI rose 5.7% y/y, the fastest since June 2022 on energy, while CPI slowed to 0.7% and core to 0.8%; Beijing pledged steps to steady the stock market. CoreWeave reports tonight after a 15% drop last week; Cisco and AMAT report Nov 12, Nvidia Nov 17. ## Holdings - AMZN: hold - Up 2.9% Monday; JPMorgan kept it as a top internet pick, citing AWS growth of 39% in Q3. - AXOS: hold - Up 1.4% Monday with the market. No company news. Forward P/E about 9. - BABA: hold - Down 3.7% Monday with no stated cause. September-quarter results due Nov 19. - ENPH: watch - Up 2.2% Monday in the broad rally. No company news; still no sign of a turn. - FIGR: hold - Up 7.9% Monday in the rebound. No company news. - GOOGL: hold - Up 1.2% Monday, lagging the Nasdaq's 2.7%. JPMorgan dropped it from its focus list; Cloud grew 103% in Q3. - LDI: trim - Q3 missed: net loss $29M vs $7M in Q2, volume down 12%, lower Q4 volume guide. Fell 17% Monday. - META: hold - Up 5.1% Monday after JPMorgan added it to its focus list; Q3 ad revenue grew 26%. - MRVL: watch - Up 9.5% Monday with chips, no company news. Lumentum deal overhang and target cuts remain. - MU: hold - Up 6.3% Monday as the chip index rose 6.9%. Forward P/E about 4. - NFLX: hold - Up 0.9% Monday. No company news. - NVDA: hold - Down 4.3% Monday while chips rose 6.9%; board probe into CEO conduct. Q3 results next week are the test. - OPENAI: hold - Closed $11B of a round at $1.25T, the same valuation already reported; mark unchanged. - RKT: hold - Up 0.9% Monday. No company news. - STRIPE: hold - No new round or tender reported. - TSM: hold - Up 3.5% Monday. October revenue up 59.7% year on year and 14.7% on September. ## Watchlist - ALAB:US Astera Labs - watch (medium) - Connectivity chips for AI racks; still growing fast. Up 13.7% Nov 9, recovering most of the Nov 5 fall. - AMD:US Advanced Micro Devices - watch (medium) - Q3 beat (rev $13.38B vs $13.09B est). Up 13.3% Nov 9 on an Oppenheimer upgrade to buy; back above pre-selloff level. - AVGO:US Broadcom - accumulate (medium) - Custom AI chips and networking. Up 8.8% Nov 9, recovering the earlier 10% drop. - CLS:US Celestica - accumulate (high) - AI server and switch maker for hyperscalers. Up 7.9% Nov 9 after a 21% two-day fall. - SKHY:US SK hynix - accumulate (high) - HBM leader; Q3 revenue passed 100T won, over half of 2027-28 capacity reportedly contracted. US line up 5.5% Nov 9; Seoul shares up 6.7% Nov 10. - BE:US Bloom Energy - accumulate (medium) - On-site fuel-cell power for data centres. Up 11.9% Nov 9, back near pre-selloff levels. - GEV:US GE Vernova - accumulate (high) - Gas turbines and grid gear sold out for years; demand not only data centres. Up 7.1% Nov 9. - VRT:US Vertiv - accumulate (medium) - Power and cooling for data centres. Up 9.6% Nov 9 after a 25% two-day fall; most exposed to any build slowdown. - HOOD:US Robinhood - watch (medium) - Retail brokerage growth; trading volume tracks risk appetite. Up 3.0% Nov 9; launched UK IPO Access. - MELI:US MercadoLibre - accumulate (medium) - LatAm e-commerce and fintech leader. Up 1.5% Nov 9, lagging the rebound; Brazil politics weighs. - NET:US Cloudflare - accumulate (high) - Q3 revenue $782.5M, +39%; guidance raised. Up 9.3% Nov 9 after 9.9% Nov 6. Thesis strengthened. - SE:US Sea Limited - watch (low) - Shopee, Garena, Monee in SE Asia. Up 2.9% Nov 9. No change. - 6861:JP Keyence - buy (high) - Factory automation sensors, ~50% operating margin. Up 2.6% Nov 9 and 5.1% Nov 10 in Tokyo; thesis intact. - ASML:US ASML Holding - buy (high) - Sole EUV supplier; monopoly intact. Up 6.2% Nov 9, above the pre-selloff level. - TER:US Teradyne - accumulate (medium) - Chip test for AI and HBM plus robotics. Up 12.7% Nov 9 after a 21% two-day fall. ## Bellwether changes - h100_rental: $3.04/hr, +6.7% on 7 days. New high, first print above $3./bullish -> $3.01/hr, +6.4% on 7 days. Holding above $3./bullish - b200_rental: B200 $6.80, +14.7% on 7 days; ratio 2.24x./bullish -> B200 $6.84, +15.3% on 7 days; ratio 2.27x./bullish - hopper_residual: A100 $1.59 (+3.9% on 7 days), 9c above the $1.50 floor; H200 $3.53 (+4.1%)./neutral -> A100 $1.59 (+3.9% on 7 days); H200 $3.48 (+1.2%)./neutral - dc_cost_per_gw: 10-yr 4.86% Nov 6 (+2bp on hot jobs), from 4.83% Nov 5. Brent -0.5% to $97.79./neutral -> 10-yr 4.88% Nov 9 (+2bp); 2-yr 4.56% (+5bp). Brent -5.9% to $92.57, lowest since early Sep./neutral - memory_prices: Spot Nov 6: DDR5 16Gb 60.167 (-0.82%), DDR4 16Gb 80.815 (-1.06%). Third day of declines./neutral -> Spot Nov 10: DDR5 16Gb 60.167 (flat), DDR4 16Gb 79.99 (-0.31%)./neutral - power_bottleneck: VRT fell about 13% then 16% on Nov 4-5; GEV and Eaton about -9-10% on Nov 4. No law or moratorium passed./bearish -> Industrials +3.8% Nov 9; CEG +10.5%, NRG +10.3%; CAT +7.2% on Anthropic buying ~$3.4B of gas generators./neutral - capex_vs_backlog: No capex cuts announced. AMD +11% Nov 6 on Q4 guide about $17B; Cisco guides $18.0-18.2B for Nov 12./bullish -> No capex cuts. SOXX +7.5% Nov 9; AMD +13.3% on upgrade, AVGO +8.8%./bullish - neocloud_credit: No new November CDS print. October: 2031 bonds yield above 15%, about 79c; CDS record 1,194.5bp Oct 15./bearish -> CRWV +5.6% Nov 9 after -15.4% last week. No new CDS print; Oct record 1,194.5bp./bearish - nvidia_dc: Nvidia +2.8% Nov 6 after a heavy week. Q3 FY27 Tue Nov 17, call 5pm ET; guide $108B +/-2%, GM 74%./neutral -> NVDA -4.3% Nov 9 as semis rallied; board probe into reports Huang was target of foreign intelligence effort./neutral ## Calendar changes - removed 2026-11-09-cftc-gpu-futures - added 2026-11-10 MACRO Fed speakers: Waller, Logan 9:35am ET, Schmid 1:30pm ET - added 2026-11-11 MACRO Veterans Day: stocks open, bond market closed - added 2026-11-12 MACRO Fed speakers: Hammack, Barr, Bowman, Goolsbee, Daly, Jefferson - added 2026-11-17 RBA RBA minutes, November meeting - added 2026-11-19 BABA Alibaba September quarter results and call ## New news (10) - 2026-11-09 [positive] MARKET: S&P 500 +2.35%, Nasdaq +2.74%, chip index +6.85% - Best S&P day since April 8 after the worst week since April 2025. Dow +1,104. Brent -5.85% to $92.57. October CPI due Wednesday. <https://noctaaa.substack.com/p/daily-brief-tuesday-10-november-2026> - 2026-11-09 [negative] NVDA: Nvidia -4.3% as board probes CEO; chips rally without it - Board opened an investigation into Jensen Huang's relationship with an alleged Chinese spy. Stock fell up to 8% intraday, lowest close since April 7. <https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/live/stock-market-today-monday-november-9-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-nvidia-090535419.html> - 2026-11-10 [neutral] NVDA: Nasdaq-100 +3.4% while Nvidia lost about $200B - CNBC: Nasdaq-100 was as oversold as at the March 30 low; SOX needs another 9% to clear its 20-day average. <https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/10/chip-stocks-rally-nvidia-scandal.html> - 2026-11-09 [negative] LDI: loanDepot Q3: loss widens to $29M, volume down 12% - Revenue $307M (-9% q/q). Margin up 54bp to 399bp. Q4 volume guide $4.5-6.5B vs $7.05B in Q3. Seeking refinancing of debt maturities. Stock -17%. <https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001831631/000183163126000113/a2026q3earningsreleaseex991.htm> - 2026-11-10 [positive] TSM: TSMC October revenue +59.7% y/y - NT$586.9B, up 14.7% on September. Year to date up 43.3%. <https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001046179/000104617926000796/tsm-revenue20261110.htm> - 2026-11-09 [positive] META: JPMorgan adds Meta to focus list; Meta +5%, Amazon +3% - Meta and Amazon are JPMorgan's preferred internet picks; Alphabet removed but stays overweight. Meta Q3 ad revenue +26%. <https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/meta-amazon-rise-5-jpmorgan-144819847.html> - 2026-11-09 [neutral] MRVL: Marvell +9.5% with chips, no company news - B. Riley cut target to $250, Cantor to $225 (neutral). Lumentum all-stock deal remains the overhang. <https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/price-marvell-technology-nasdaq-mrvl-stock-jumps-95-heres-why-2026-11-09/> - 2026-11-09 [negative] BABA: Alibaba -3.8% on no news - Fell against the rally. September-quarter results due Nov 19. <https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/price-alibaba-group-nyse-baba-shares-down-38-heres-why-2026-11-09/> - 2026-11-09 [neutral] ANTHROPIC: Anthropic to set IPO range this week, trading next week - WSJ via TechCrunch: some investors want below the $1.5T discussed last week, down from $2T floated months ago. <https://techcrunch.com/2026/11/09/anthropic-reportedly-plans-to-move-forward-with-ipo-plans/> - 2026-11-09 [positive] AAPL: Apple closes at record high - Up about 2.4% on Monday. <https://macdailynews.com/2026/11/09/apple-shares-hit-new-all-time-closing-high-261109/> ## Notes SKHY price now the US ADR (SKHY) quote, matching its US exchange code; earlier runs used the KRX share converted to USD. Alibaba Nov 19 date from a single report, IR notice not found. RBA minutes date estimated. Nov 8 13:40 run skipped publishing (weekend, nothing new); Nov 9 run failed on a full disk.
Nothing here is financial advice. Holdings and opinions are my own; the "agent" sections are written by an automated research skill and may be wrong. Built 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC.