# Research run 2026-11-11T13:40 UTC ## What changed - Hot October CPI (+0.4%, core +0.3%) puts a December Fed hike fully in price; 10-yr touched 5%. - Nvidia -5.5% Tue after -4.3% Mon as the CEO probe widens; results Nov 17 (Wed Nov 18 AEDT). - CoreWeave beats: revenue +168%, backlog $132.5B, guide raised; supports TSM and the AI build-out. - Anthropic sets IPO range $70-78, up to $1.4T valuation; trading expected Nov 19. - Rate-sensitive holdings hit: LDI -9.5%, ENPH -5.0%, RKT -4.9%, FIGR -4.8%. - Next: Cisco and AMAT Thu after close (Fri morning AEDT); PPI Fri. ## Market summary US stocks slipped Tue Nov 10 after a hot October CPI: headline +0.4% m/m (0.3% expected), core +0.3% (0.2% expected); S&P 500 -0.38%, Nasdaq -0.74%. The 10-yr rose about 9bp to 4.99% and briefly topped 5%; a 25bp December hike is now fully priced, with about 14% odds of 50bp after Waller floated a bigger step. Semis split: NVDA -5.5% on the board probe while AMD +7.3%, AVGO +7.9% and LRCX +8.5% rose. After the close CoreWeave beat (revenue +168%, backlog $132.5B), held 2026 capex at $37-39B and said it will not issue more parent unsecured debt at current yields; CRWV rose about 8% after hours and Nasdaq futures firmed. Brent fell 1.2% to $91.49 on Iran de-escalation talk, and the Hang Seng drifted lower, with tech down and data-centre generator names up. ## Holdings - AMZN: hold - Up 1.5% Tue against a falling Nasdaq; AWS 39% growth thesis intact. - AXOS: hold - Down 1.9% Tue with rate-hike bets after hot CPI; no company news. - BABA: hold - Down 2.5% Tue; no material company news. - ENPH: watch - Down 5.0% Tue; higher rate bets hurt solar financing. No company news. - FIGR: hold - Down 4.8% Tue as rate-hike odds rose; no company news. - GOOGL: hold - Flat (-0.3%) Tue; unveiled TPU 8tx and 8i Max chips. - LDI: trim - Down 9.5% Tue after the Q3 miss; hotter CPI and hike bets hit mortgage lenders. - META: hold - Flat Tue; no material news. - MRVL: watch - Flat (-0.1%) Tue; Lumentum deal overhang unchanged. - MU: hold - Down 1.1% Tue; Korea chip exports up 331% Nov 1-10 supports memory demand. - NFLX: hold - Down 1.1% Tue; no material news. - NVDA: hold - Down 5.5% Tue after 4.3% Mon; board probe of CEO plus reported FBI look. Results Nov 17 are the test. - OPENAI: hold - No new round reported; Anthropic IPO range ($1.4T top) gives a public comparison. - RKT: hold - Down 4.9% Tue as hot CPI lifted rate-hike odds; watch mortgage rates. - STRIPE: hold - No new round or tender reported. - TSM: hold - Up 2.0% Tue as AI chips ex-Nvidia rose; CoreWeave backlog $132.5B supports demand. ## Watchlist - ALAB:US Astera Labs - watch (medium) - Connectivity chips for AI racks; still growing fast. Flat (-0.3%) Nov 10 after a 13.7% Nov 9 rebound. - AMD:US Advanced Micro Devices - watch (medium) - Q3 beat (rev $13.38B vs $13.09B est). Up 1.3% Nov 10 while Nvidia fell 5.5%; holding the Oppenheimer-upgrade gain. - AVGO:US Broadcom - accumulate (medium) - Custom AI chips and networking. Up 3.9% Nov 10 as money rotated from Nvidia to other AI chips. - CLS:US Celestica - accumulate (high) - AI server and switch maker for hyperscalers. Up 0.4% Nov 10; CoreWeave's $132.5B backlog supports orders. - SKHY:US SK hynix - accumulate (high) - HBM leader; over half of 2027-28 capacity reportedly contracted. US line down 3.5% Nov 10; Seoul shares up 5.4% Nov 11 on 331% chip export jump. - BE:US Bloom Energy - accumulate (medium) - On-site fuel-cell power for data centres. Down 4.4% Nov 10 as hot CPI lifted rate-hike odds. - GEV:US GE Vernova - accumulate (high) - Gas turbines and grid gear sold out for years; demand not only data centres. Down 3.9% Nov 10. - VRT:US Vertiv - accumulate (medium) - Power and cooling for data centres. Down 3.1% Nov 10; most exposed to any build slowdown. - HOOD:US Robinhood - watch (medium) - Retail brokerage growth; volume tracks risk appetite. Down 2.4% Nov 10; Anthropic IPO plans ~20% retail allocation. - MELI:US MercadoLibre - accumulate (medium) - LatAm e-commerce and fintech leader. Down 2.8% Nov 10; still lagging the rebound. - NET:US Cloudflare - accumulate (high) - Q3 revenue $782.5M, +39%; guidance raised. Up 4.1% Nov 10, third straight gain. - SE:US Sea Limited - watch (low) - Shopee, Garena, Monee in SE Asia. Down 1.5% Nov 10. Q3 2026 not yet reported as of Nov 11. - 6861:JP Keyence - buy (high) - Factory automation sensors, ~50% operating margin. Up 5.1% Nov 10 and 0.7% Nov 11 in Tokyo; thesis intact. - ASML:US ASML Holding - buy (high) - Sole EUV supplier; monopoly intact. Flat (-0.4%) Nov 10. - TER:US Teradyne - accumulate (medium) - Chip test for AI and HBM plus robotics. Flat (-0.2%) Nov 10 after a 12.7% Nov 9 rebound. ## Bellwether changes - h100_rental: $3.01/hr, +6.4% on 7 days. Holding above $3./bullish -> $3.06/hr, +7.4% on 7 days./bullish - b200_rental: B200 $6.84, +15.3% on 7 days; ratio 2.27x./bullish -> B200 $6.97, +17.3% on 7 days; ratio 2.28x./bullish - hopper_residual: A100 $1.59 (+3.9% on 7 days); H200 $3.48 (+1.2%)./neutral -> A100 $1.59 (+5.3% on 7 days); H200 $3.48 (+3.9%)./bullish - dc_cost_per_gw: 10-yr 4.88% Nov 9 (+2bp); 2-yr 4.56% (+5bp). Brent -5.9% to $92.57, lowest since early Sep./neutral -> 10-yr 4.99% Nov 10 (+9bp), briefly over 5%. Brent -1.2% to $91.49./neutral - memory_prices: Spot Nov 10: DDR5 16Gb 60.167 (flat), DDR4 16Gb 79.99 (-0.31%)./neutral -> Spot Nov 11: DDR5 16Gb 60.233 (+0.11%), DDR4 16Gb 79.867 (-0.15%)./neutral - power_bottleneck: Industrials +3.8% Nov 9; CEG +10.5%, NRG +10.3%; CAT +7.2% on Anthropic buying ~$3.4B of gas generators./neutral -> CoreWeave: 1.85 GW active by end-2026 on track; almost all power online or permitted./bullish - capex_vs_backlog: No capex cuts. SOXX +7.5% Nov 9; AMD +13.3% on upgrade, AVGO +8.8%./bullish -> CoreWeave backlog $132.5B (from $104B in June); 2026 capex $37-39B; 2027 capex flat on committed backlog alone./bullish - neocloud_credit: CRWV +5.6% Nov 9 after -15.4% last week. No new CDS print; Oct record 1,194.5bp./bearish -> Debt near $47B. No new parent unsecured debt through 2027 at current yields; some bonds above 16%./bearish - nvidia_dc: NVDA -4.3% Nov 9 as semis rallied; board probe into reports Huang was target of foreign intelligence effort./neutral -> NVDA -5.5% Nov 10, second straight fall, on board probe into Huang; peers rallied./neutral ## Calendar changes - 2026-11-17-nvda-q3-fy27: 2026-11-17 After close; call 5:00pm ET (Wed 9:00am AEDT) -> 2026-11-17 After close ~4:20pm ET; call 5:00pm ET (Wed 9:00am AEDT) (confirmed) - added 2026-11-25 MACRO US Q3 GDP second estimate and October PCE ## New news (4) - 2026-11-10 [negative] MACRO: October CPI +0.4% m/m, core +0.3%, both above forecast - S&P 500 -0.4%, Nasdaq -0.7%, Dow -0.3%. No y/y figure (2025 shutdown gap). Shelter over 30% of the rise. Gold -2.6%. <https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/stocks/us-stocks/262299690-us-stocks-cpi-exceeds-expectations-nvda-drops-amd-broadcom-rises-tradingkey> - 2026-11-10 [negative] MACRO: Fed hike odds jump; Waller had flagged 50bp if core hit 0.3% - Core came in at 0.3%. Logan backs at least two more 25bp hikes. Futures price a December hike as near certain. <https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/cpi-hotter-fed-threatens-50-bps-crwv-crushed-it-and-ai-comes-roaring-back-202611111223> - 2026-11-10 [neutral] ANTHROPIC: Anthropic sets IPO range $70-78, up to $1.4T valuation - 825M shares on Nasdaq as ANT. Pricing expected Nov 18, trading Nov 19. Valuation below earlier $2T talk; book reportedly covered. <https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/10/anthropic-sets-price-range-of-70-to-78-in-upcoming-ipo.html> - 2026-11-11 [positive] SKHY: Kospi +2.6%, SK hynix +5.4%; Korea chip exports +331% Nov 1-10 - Nikkei +1.3%. Samsung +3.4%, Kioxia +5.6%. Lower oil and Iran talk hopes helped. <https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/stocks/more/262300120-japan-korea-stocks-skhy-kospi-nikkei-samsung-skhynix-softbank-kioxia-nvda-hbm-tradingkey> ## Notes Anthropic IPO ticker reported as ANT; news filed under ANTHROPIC. Keyence uses an estimated Nov 10 JPY rate. AMD/AVGO Tue moves conflict between sources; stockanalysis used. RBA minutes Nov 17 inferred from the two-week rule, TBC.
Nothing here is financial advice. Holdings and opinions are my own; the "agent" sections are written by an automated research skill and may be wrong. Built 2026-11-12 12:25 UTC.