# Research run 2026-11-12T18:30 UTC ## What changed - Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang resigned Nov 12; CFO Colette Kress is interim CEO. NVDA about -5% midday; results still Tue Nov 17 (Wed 9am AEDT). - OpenAI round at $1.25T marks the private stake near 8x cost, up from 5.4x. - Figure Q3: marketplace volume +135%, stock up about 10% despite softer Q4 margin guide. - Alibaba about -7% on China AI chip worries; results Nov 19. AMD and Broadcom up about 5%. - 10-year yield about 5.1%; December Fed hike near fully priced. Indexes roughly flat midday. - Next: PPI Fri, Anthropic prices Nov 18 and lists Nov 19 (Thu/Fri AEDT). ## Market summary US stocks were roughly flat on Thu Nov 12 (intraday: S&P 500 +0.1%, Nasdaq ~0.0%, Dow +0.2%; final closes not yet confirmed), recovering after Nvidia fell as much as 13% on Jensen Huang's resignation before trimming to about -5%. The 10-year Treasury yield hit about 5.1%, up from 4.99%, after this week's hot CPI. Analysts say a December Fed hike is nearly fully priced, and some see a 50bp move. Semis were split (MU and INTC down, AMD up) and the SOX is still below its 200-day average, though Wednesday's CoreWeave beat showed AI capex demand holding up. WTI oil rose about 1.5% to the low $90s on Trump's Iran comments. Nvidia's Nov 17 results are the next test of AI capex, and Alibaba on Nov 19 is the China read. ## Holdings - AMZN: hold - Up 1% midday while Nvidia fell; Anthropic stake gets marked at the Nov 19 listing. - AXOS: hold - Flat (-0.2%) with no news; forward P/E about 9. - BABA: watch - Down 7% midday on China AI chip supply worries after Nvidia exit; T-Head IPO filed, results Nov 19. - ENPH: watch - Down 3% with no company news; still a falling trend. - FIGR: hold - Q3 marketplace volume +135%, adj. EBITDA +91% at 58% margin; stock up about 10%. Q4 margin guided softer. - GOOGL: hold - Up 3% midday; $10B Anthropic IPO commitment and stake value in focus. - LDI: trim - Down 3% more with delisting risk building; no catalyst. - META: hold - Down 0.6%, no material news; forward P/E about 19. - MRVL: hold - Down 2% in chip sell-off on Nvidia CEO exit; no company news. - MU: hold - Down 2% with chips; forward P/E under 5 still cheap. - NFLX: hold - Down 1%, no material news. - NVDA: watch - Huang resigned Nov 12, CFO Kress interim CEO; down 5% midday after 8% after-hours drop. Forward P/E near 14 prices much in; wait for CEO search. - OPENAI: hold - Round closing at $1.25T (first $11B in, later reports $15B) vs $157B Oct 2024, about 8x; under the $30B target. - RKT: watch - Down 2%; hot October CPI and priced December hike weigh on mortgage volumes. - STRIPE: hold - No new valuation round; OpenRouter deal closed, PayPal bid talk unresolved. - TSM: hold - Down 1.6% on Nvidia leadership shock; demand story intact. ## Watchlist - ALAB:US Astera Labs - watch (medium) - PCIe/CXL retimers and switches ride AI rack scale-out; Scorpio X switches seen above $1B annual run rate by end-2026 (BMO conf). - AMD:US Advanced Micro Devices - watch (medium) - Instinct GPUs gaining as second source; Huang exit from Nvidia may open share; BofA target $700, William Blair upgrade to Outperform. - AVGO:US Broadcom - accumulate (medium) - Custom AI accelerators (Google TPU, Anthropic) plus networking; up about 5% Nov 12 as buyers rotate from Nvidia after Huang resigned. - CLS:US Celestica - accumulate (high) - Builds racks and switches for custom-ASIC hyperscalers; Bernstein still Outperform. - SKHY:US SK Hynix (000660) - accumulate (high) - HBM leader; memory rallied after CoreWeave Q3 and KOSPI rose 2.6% Nov 11. - VRT:US Vertiv - accumulate (medium) - Liquid cooling and power for AI racks; 800V DC sidecars expected from 2H27. - BE:US Bloom Energy - accumulate (medium) - On-site fuel-cell power for data centers that can't wait for a grid connection. - GEV:US GE Vernova - accumulate (high) - Gas turbine backlog sold out for years; JPM says it can weather an AI capex slowdown. - HOOD:US Robinhood - watch (medium) - Record equity activity as customers bought dips; adding prediction markets, agentic tools, wealth and RIAs. - MELI:US MercadoLibre - accumulate (medium) - LatAm e-commerce plus fintech compounder. - NET:US Cloudflare - accumulate (high) - Q3 revenue $782.5M, +39% y/y; edge inference and agent traffic are a tailwind. - SE:US Sea Ltd - watch (low) - Shopee, Monee and Garena in SE Asia; Q3 revenue $8.6B beat estimates; $1B buyback. - 6861:JP Keyence - buy (high) - Factory automation sensors with very high margins; Citi Buy; recovers when manufacturing capex turns. - ASML:US ASML Holding - buy (high) - EUV monopoly; raised 2026 guidance on AI capacity build; buyback running. - TER:US Teradyne - accumulate (medium) - Moving from mobile testing to AI chip test; Jefferies initiated at Buy ($284 target) and sees a $2B Nvidia opportunity. ## Bellwether changes - memory_prices: DDR5 16Gb 60.233 (0%), DDR4 16Gb 79.374 (-0.6%)/neutral -> DDR5 16Gb 60.233 (0%), DDR4 16Gb 79.75 (-0.15%)/neutral - power_bottleneck: Still binding; no new data this run/neutral -> Still binding; Vertiv launched MV UPS Nov 12, GEV +2.6%/bullish - capex_vs_backlog: CoreWeave backlog $132.5B (last read)/neutral -> CoreWeave backlog $132.5B (from $104B Jun); 2026 capex guide $37-39B/bullish - nvidia_dc: Board reportedly preparing to remove CEO (WSJ, Nov 11); shares down over 7% after hours./neutral -> Huang resigned Nov 12; CFO Kress interim CEO/neutral ## Calendar changes - 2026-11-12-nvda-board: 2026-11-12 Decision TBC; board met late Wed Nov 11 ET -> 2026-11-12 Announced Thu Nov 12 ET (Fri AEDT) - added 2026-11-24 DELL Dell fiscal Q3 results (date projected) - added 2026-11-24 WDAY Workday and Zscaler quarterly results (dates projected) - added 2026-11-26 MRVL Marvell fiscal Q3 2027 results - added 2026-11-26 US Thanksgiving: markets closed; Fri 27 half day (1pm ET close) ## New news (10) - 2026-11-12 [negative] NVDA: Jensen Huang resigns; CFO Colette Kress named interim CEO - Huang left as CEO and director effective immediately. Harvey Jones becomes first board chair and the board is searching inside and outside for a permanent CEO. <https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-ceo-transition> - 2026-11-12 [positive] FIGR: Figure Q3: marketplace volume +135%, EBITDA margin 58% - Adjusted EBITDA rose 91%. Management flagged seasonal and acquisition costs pressuring Q4 margins; shares rose about 10%. <https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/figr/> - 2026-11-12 [negative] BABA: Alibaba drops about 7% on China AI chip worries - ADRs fell midday as Nvidia's leadership shock revived chip-supply concerns; T-Head has filed for a Hong Kong IPO and results land Nov 19. <https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/baba/> - 2026-11-06 [positive] OPENAI: OpenAI closes first $11B of round at $1.25T - The round could reach $20B, well below the original $30B target at a higher valuation. Later reports put the total at $15B. <https://gvwire.com/2026/11/06/openai-secures-11-billion-funding-at-1-25-trillion-valuation-bloomberg-news-reports/> - 2026-11-09 [neutral] ANTHROPIC: Anthropic aims for Nasdaq debut as ANT next week - WSJ says trading targets Thursday or Friday, Nov 19-20, with Goldman and Morgan Stanley setting the range. Nvidia and Alphabet pledged $10B each at the IPO price. <https://investinglive.com/stock-market-update/wsj-anthropic-targets-nasdaq-debut-next-week-under-ticker-ant-despite-tech-selloff/> - 2026-11-12 [positive] AMD: AMD up ~5% as rivals gain on Nvidia exit; BofA target $700 - William Blair upgraded to Outperform; AMD to invest in PsiQuantum. <https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/amd/> - 2026-11-12 [positive] AVGO: Broadcom up ~5% on rotation from Nvidia - Custom-chip makers bid as Nvidia shares fell. <https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/avgo/> - 2026-11-12 [positive] ALAB: Astera sees Scorpio X above $1B run rate by end-2026 - Said at BMO conference; rising silicon content per XPU. <https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/alab/> - 2026-11-12 [positive] VRT: Vertiv launches PowerNexus medium-voltage UPS for AI sites - Outdoor-rated MV system; shares +2.7%. <https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/vrt/> - 2026-11-12 [negative] SE: Four brokers cut Sea targets after Q3 EPS miss - BofA $110, TD Cowen $90, StoneX $155, Barclays $150. <https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/se/> ## Notes Prices and index moves are midday Nov 12 ET readings (about 1pm ET), not closes. OpenAI mark 7.96x is approximate (pre/post-money unclear). Dell/Workday/Zscaler/Marvell dates projected, TBC. Some news cites stockanalysis quote pages where primaries returned 403.
Nothing here is financial advice. Holdings and opinions are my own; the "agent" sections are written by an automated research skill and may be wrong. Built 2026-11-12 18:11 UTC.