# Research run 2026-11-13T06:45 UTC ## What changed - Nvidia closed -4.3% after Huang resigned, off a -14% low; Kress interim CEO. Results Tue Nov 17 = Wed 9am AEDT. - AMD +5.9% and Broadcom +5.5% as buyers rotate from Nvidia; the chip trade is splitting, not breaking. - 10-year yield about 5.1% after hot CPI; December Fed hike priced. RKT -5%, ENPH -5%. - Alibaba -7% ahead of Nov 19 results; Figure +6%. - Anthropic IPO: $70-78 range, about $61B raise, lists as ANT around Nov 19 (Thu Nov 20 AEDT). - B200 rents up 17% in a week; Marvell results moved to Dec 1. ## Market summary US stocks slipped Thu Nov 12: S&P 500 -0.35% to 7,592, Nasdaq -0.39%, Russell 2000 -1.7%, VIX up 7% to 18.7. Nvidia fell 4.3% after Jensen Huang resigned as CEO (CFO Colette Kress interim), while AMD (+5.9%) and Broadcom (+5.5%) rallied, so the chip trade is splitting rather than breaking. The 10-year Treasury yield closed near 5.10% (+10bp) after hot October CPI (+0.4% m/m), keeping a further Fed hike on the table; PPI today and FOMC minutes Nov 18 are the next tests. Oil rose 2.6% to $88.75 on US-Iran and Hormuz uncertainty, which is another inflation headwind. AI capex signals stayed firm: Applied Materials posted record $10.4B revenue and Cisco raised its FY27 outlook, and Nvidia (Nov 17) and Alibaba (Nov 19) are the next reads, with Alibaba covering China. ## Holdings - AMZN: hold - Up 0.5% on a down day; Anthropic stake gets a public mark when ANT lists week of Nov 16. - AXOS: hold - Down 0.5% with no news; forward P/E about 9. - BABA: watch - Fell 7% on China AI chip supply worries after the Nvidia shake-up; results Nov 19 are the next read. - ENPH: watch - Down 5.4% as the 10-year topped 5.1%; rate-sensitive solar keeps falling with no company news. - FIGR: hold - Up 6.1% more after Q3 volume +135%; post-earnings run continues despite softer Q4 margin guide. - GOOGL: hold - Up 1.8% while the Nasdaq fell 0.4%; Anthropic stake and $10B IPO commitment in focus. - LDI: trim - Down 4.8% more as 10-year yield jumps 13bp; delisting risk building, no catalyst. - META: hold - Down 0.8%, in line with the market; no material news, forward P/E about 19. - MRVL: hold - Down 2.6% in the chip sell-off after the Nvidia CEO exit; no company news. - MU: hold - Down 1.6% with chips; forward P/E about 4.5 and Nvidia's Nov 17 results drive HBM sentiment. - NFLX: hold - Down 2.9% with no company news; forward P/E about 17. - NVDA: hold - Closed -4.3% after Huang quit, off a -14% intraday low; down 11% since Nov 6. Nov 17 results are the test. - OPENAI: hold - No new mark reported; Anthropic's listing week of Nov 16 will set a public comp. - RKT: watch - Down 5.1% as the 10-year jumped 13bp past 5.1%; mortgage volumes hurt by a December hike priced in. - STRIPE: hold - No new mark reported; private, held at last mark. - TSM: hold - Down 1.9% on Nvidia leadership worries; demand story unchanged, forward P/E about 19. ## Watchlist - ALAB:US Astera Labs - watch (medium) - PCIe/CXL retimers and switches ride AI rack scale-out; Scorpio X switches seen above $1B annual run rate by end-2026 (BMO conf). - AMD:US Advanced Micro Devices - watch (medium) - Instinct GPUs gaining as second source; Huang exit from Nvidia may open share; BofA target $700, William Blair upgrade to Outperform. - AVGO:US Broadcom - accumulate (medium) - Custom AI accelerators (Google TPU, Anthropic) plus networking; up about 5% Nov 12 as buyers rotate from Nvidia after Huang resigned. - CLS:US Celestica - accumulate (high) - Builds racks and switches for custom-ASIC hyperscalers; up 4.6% Nov 12 with custom-chip names; Bernstein still Outperform. - SKHY:US SK Hynix (000660) - accumulate (high) - HBM leader; KOSPI chip rally Nov 11, then -2.6% in Seoul Nov 13 as memory momentum cooled. - VRT:US Vertiv - accumulate (medium) - Liquid cooling and power for AI racks; 800V DC sidecars expected from 2H27. - BE:US Bloom Energy - accumulate (medium) - On-site fuel-cell power for data centers that can't wait for a grid connection. - GEV:US GE Vernova - accumulate (high) - Gas turbine backlog sold out for years; JPM says it can weather an AI capex slowdown. - HOOD:US Robinhood - watch (medium) - October data: platform assets $383B, 28.9M funded customers; adding prediction markets, wealth and RIAs. - MELI:US MercadoLibre - accumulate (medium) - LatAm e-commerce plus fintech compounder. - NET:US Cloudflare - accumulate (high) - Q3 revenue $782.5M, +39% y/y; founding member of SGLang open inference consortium; edge inference tailwind. - SE:US Sea Ltd - watch (low) - Shopee, Monee and Garena in SE Asia; Q3 revenue $8.6B beat estimates; $1B buyback. - 6861:JP Keyence - buy (high) - Factory automation sensors with very high margins; Citi Buy; recovers when manufacturing capex turns. - ASML:US ASML Holding - buy (high) - EUV monopoly; raised 2026 guidance on AI capacity build; buyback running. - TER:US Teradyne - accumulate (medium) - Moving from mobile testing to AI chip test; Jefferies initiated at Buy ($284 target) and sees a $2B Nvidia opportunity. ## Bellwether changes - b200_rental: $6.84/hr, +15% 7d; ratio 2.24x/bullish -> $6.97/hr, +17.1% 7d; ratio 2.28x/bullish - hopper_residual: A100 $1.59 (+4.6% 7d), H200 $3.47 (+2.7%)/bullish -> A100 $1.60 (+5.3% 7d), H200 $3.52 (+3.8%)/bullish - memory_prices: DDR5 16Gb 60.233 (0%), DDR4 16Gb 79.75 (-0.15%)/neutral -> DDR5 16Gb 60.233 (0%), DDR4 16Gb 79.50 (-0.31%)/neutral - power_bottleneck: Still binding; Vertiv launched MV UPS Nov 12, GEV +2.6%/bullish -> Still binding; GEV +1.3%, VRT +1.5% Nov 12/bullish ## Calendar changes - removed 2026-11-26-mrvl-q3-fy27 - added 2026-12-01 MRVL Marvell fiscal Q3 2027 results and call - 2026-11-17-nvda-q3-fy27: 2026-11-17 After close ~4:20pm ET; call 5:00pm ET (Wed 9:00am AEDT) (confirmed) -> 2026-11-17 After close; call 5:00pm ET (Wed 9:00am AEDT) (confirmed) ## New news (6) - 2026-11-12 [negative] NVDA: Nvidia closes down 4.3% after Huang resigns; Kress interim CEO - Fell as much as 14% intraday before paring. CFO Colette Kress is interim CEO; Harvey Jones becomes first board chair. Bernstein halved its target. Q3 results still due Nov 17. <https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/12/nvidia-nvda-jensen-huang-second-affair.html> - 2026-11-12 [negative] NVDA: Nvidia down 11% since Nov 6 and 31% below its Oct 6 record - Market value finished about $4.0T. Index funds fell about 0.35%; small caps (IWM) fell 1.6%. <https://www.stocktitan.net/articles/stock-market-today-live-november-12-2026> - 2026-11-12 [negative] MACRO: 10-year yield jumps 13bp to 5.125%; December Fed hike fully priced - 2-year up 15bp to 4.879%. Goldman added a March hike. WTI +2% to $88.74, Brent +3% to $95.82 after Trump said no Iran deal needed. <https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/12/us-treasurys-bonds-yields.html> - 2026-11-10 [positive] ANTHROPIC: Anthropic sets terms: 825M shares at $70-78, about $61B raise - About $1.2T fully diluted value at midpoint. Nasdaq ticker ANT; expected to price and trade week of Nov 16 (Nov 19 listing is Thu morning AEST Nov 20). <https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/122657/anthropic-sets-terms-for-61-billion-ipo-targeting-a-1.2-trillion-market-cap> - 2026-11-10 [neutral] HOOD: Robinhood listed among retail brokers for the Anthropic IPO - CFO says it is 'making sure the companies know retail is here'. Separately, the stock fell 8% on Oct 28 after a Q3 EPS miss. <https://www.tikr.com/blog/robinhood-cfo-on-anthropics-ipo-were-making-sure-the-companies-know-retail-is-here-after-an-8-drop> - 2026-11-12 [neutral] HOOD: Robinhood October: $383B platform assets, 28.9M funded customers - Monthly operating data released; shares fell 3.8% on the day. <https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/hood/> ## Notes Watchlist unchanged. CoreWeave CDS, 10y and Brent indicators carried from prior readings. SKHY/6861 USD use prior FX. BABA drop reason carried from last run; no Nov 12 source found. Dec Fed hike odds not confirmed by a FedWatch page.
Nothing here is financial advice. Holdings and opinions are my own; the "agent" sections are written by an automated research skill and may be wrong. Built 2026-11-13 18:10 UTC.