# Research run 2026-11-13T18:45 UTC ## What changed - Chip rout deepens Fri: AMD -10%, Broadcom -5%, MRVL -6%, MU -4%, NVDA -3% as HSBC cuts Nvidia to Hold. - 10y touched 5.17%, highest since October; PPI +6.5% y/y keeps a December Fed hike in play. - META +2% against a Nasdaq down about 1.5%; the only holding clearly green. - OpenAI reportedly raising $15B at $1.25T; SPV mark unchanged at 7.96x. - Next: Nvidia results Tue Nov 17 = Wed morning AEDT; Anthropic IPO prices around Nov 18. ## Market summary Chips led a broad sell-off on Fri Nov 13 as the market priced Nvidia without Jensen Huang: AMD fell about 10%, Broadcom about 6%, Intel about 5%, Nvidia about 4%. Yahoo had the S&P 500 -0.9% and Nasdaq -1.6% late in the session, Dow -0.2%. October PPI rose 0.3% m/m against 0.4% expected, but is up 6.5% y/y, the most since Nov 2022, so a December Fed hike stays the base case. The 10-yr hit 5.17% intraday, its highest since October; WTI was flat near $88.5 after Thursday's spike. Next week hinges on Nvidia's Tue print under interim CEO Kress, the Anthropic IPO and FOMC minutes; China's open models depend on chips the Nvidia shake-up could put at risk. ## Holdings - AMZN: hold - Down 0.7%, holding up better than chips in the yield-driven tech selloff; no new company news. - AXOS: hold - Down 0.7% as the 10y tops 5.1%; cheap on forward earnings, no company news. - BABA: hold - Down 0.4% ahead of Nov 19 results; wait for the print before acting. - ENPH: watch - Down 3.8% as higher yields weigh on rate-sensitive solar; no company-specific news. - FIGR: hold - Flat (+0.1%) in a weak tape; no new company news. - GOOGL: hold - Down 1%, in line with Nasdaq; no material news since Nov 12. - LDI: trim - Up 0.9%, but a 10y above 5.1% and Fed-hike odds keep pressure on; delisting risk unchanged. - META: hold - Up 2% against a falling Nasdaq, a rare green holding today; no new catalyst. - MRVL: watch - Down 6% more on Lumentum all-stock deal dilution fears plus chip selloff; BofA cut to Neutral, target $225. - MU: hold - Down 4.4% with the memory/chip selloff; forward P/E near 4 still prices in a cycle peak. - NFLX: hold - Down 0.7%; no material news since Nov 12. - NVDA: watch - Down 3% after Thursday's slide on Huang exit; HSBC cut to Hold, target $170. Wait for Nov 17 results and CEO search clarity. - OPENAI: hold - Reported $15B raise at $1.25T pre-money, consistent with the current 7.96x mark; no change. - RKT: hold - Up 1.6% despite the 10y above 5.1%; watch the hit to refinance demand. - STRIPE: hold - No new round or tender reported; $159B Feb 2026 tender still the latest mark. - TSM: hold - Down 2.3% in the chip selloff, less than peers; demand story intact ahead of NVDA results. ## Watchlist - ALAB:US Astera Labs - watch (medium) - PCIe/CXL retimers and switches ride AI rack scale-out; Scorpio X seen above $1B run rate by end-2026; BMO Outperform, $375. - AMD:US Advanced Micro Devices - watch (medium) - Instinct GPUs gaining as second source; Huang exit from Nvidia may open share. - AVGO:US Broadcom - accumulate (medium) - Custom AI accelerators (Google TPU, Anthropic) plus networking. - CLS:US Celestica - accumulate (high) - Builds racks and switches for custom-ASIC hyperscalers; Bernstein still Outperform. - SKHY:US SK Hynix (000660) - accumulate (high) - HBM leader; about half of next two years' memory supply already sold. - VRT:US Vertiv - accumulate (medium) - Liquid cooling and power for AI racks; raised its regular dividend Nov 13. - BE:US Bloom Energy - accumulate (medium) - On-site fuel-cell power for data centers; NTT DATA 900 MW deal; HSBC and Barclays positive. - GEV:US GE Vernova - accumulate (high) - Gas turbine backlog sold out for years; JPM says it can weather an AI capex slowdown. - HOOD:US Robinhood - watch (medium) - Platform assets $383B, 28.9M funded customers; adding prediction markets, wealth and RIAs. - MELI:US MercadoLibre - accumulate (medium) - LatAm e-commerce plus fintech; Q3 revenue $10.75B, +45% y/y; held up +1.2% on a weak tech day. - NET:US Cloudflare - accumulate (high) - Q3 revenue +39% y/y; named Leader in 2026 Gartner MQ for Edge Distribution Nov 13; SGLang consortium member. - SE:US Sea Ltd - watch (low) - Shopee, Monee and Garena in SE Asia; Q3 revenue $8.6B beat; $1B buyback. - 6861:JP Keyence - buy (high) - Factory automation sensors with very high margins; Citi Buy (¥95,000). - ASML:US ASML Holding - buy (high) - EUV monopoly; raised 2026 guidance on AI capacity build; buyback running. - TER:US Teradyne - accumulate (medium) - Moving to AI chip test; Jefferies Buy ($284) sees a $2B Nvidia opportunity. ## Bellwether changes - dc_cost_per_gw: 10-yr ~5% (4.99% Nov 10), Brent ~$91/bearish -> 10-yr 5.13-5.17% Nov 13; WTI ~$88.5/bearish - memory_prices: DDR5 16Gb 60.233 (0%), DDR4 16Gb 79.50 (-0.31%)/neutral -> DDR5 16Gb 60.233 (0%); 4Q26 DRAM contract guide +10-15% (Oct: ~+20%)/neutral - power_bottleneck: Still binding; GEV +1.3%, VRT +1.5% Nov 12/bullish -> Still binding; no new grid data/bullish - capex_vs_backlog: CoreWeave backlog $132.5B (from $104B Jun); 2026 capex guide $37-39B/bullish -> CoreWeave backlog $132.5B; 2026 capex guide $37-39B/bullish - nvidia_dc: Huang resigned Nov 12; CFO Kress interim CEO/neutral -> NVDA -3 to -4% Nov 13; AMD -10%, AVGO -6%/neutral ## Calendar changes - added 2026-11-16 MACRO China October industrial output, retail sales, investment - added 2026-11-16 MACRO NY Empire State manufacturing, November - 2026-11-17-us-retail-sales: 2026-11-17 8:30am ET (Wed 12:30am AEDT) -> 2026-11-17 8:30am ET (Wed 12:30am AEDT) (confirmed) - added 2026-11-17 HD Home Depot Q3 results - added 2026-11-17 MACRO Fed's Hammack speaks - added 2026-11-18 PANW Target and Palo Alto Networks results - added 2026-11-18 MACRO NY Fed's Williams speaks - added 2026-11-19 WMT Walmart Q3 results - added 2026-11-19 INTU Intuit fiscal Q1 results - added 2026-11-19 MACRO Jobless claims and Philly Fed, November - added 2026-11-20 MACRO China loan prime rates - added 2026-11-20 MACRO Fed's Waller and Cook speak ## New news (5) - 2026-11-13 [negative] NVDA: HSBC downgrades Nvidia to Hold after Huang exit - HSBC cut its target to $170 from $365, saying investor confidence is shaken. The stock fell again Friday, extending Thursday's 4% drop. <https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/live/stock-market-today-friday-november-13-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-nvidia-ppi-141451558.html> - 2026-11-13 [neutral] OPENAI: OpenAI reportedly raising $15B at $1.25T valuation - Half the $30B initially sought and below a $1.4T target, per CNBC sources. About 47% above the March round's $852B post-money. <https://techfundingnews.com/openai-reportedly-raises-15b-at-1-25t-valuation-as-anthropic-ipo-approaches/> - 2026-11-13 [positive] META: Meta rises about 2% against falling Nasdaq - Meta traded higher midday Friday on light volume while chips dragged the index lower. <https://marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/options-meta-platforms-inc-nasdaq-meta-sees-large-increase-in-short-interest-2026-11-13> - 2026-11-12 [positive] HOOD: Robinhood among six brokers selling Anthropic IPO shares to retail - Robinhood joins Schwab, Fidelity, SoFi, E*TRADE and others in the retail allocation; HOOD rose 4% on Nov 12. <https://financefeeds.com/robinhood-hood-stock-84-58-thursday-anthropic-ipo-retail-allocation-targets-100-135/> - 2026-11-13 [negative] MACRO: 10y yield hits 5.17%, Fed hike bets build - October PPI rose 0.3% vs 0.4% expected, but yields stayed above 5.1% and December hike odds rose. <https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20261114/stocks-sway-as-wall-street-heads-for-winning-week-after-several-turbulent-days> ## Notes Prices intraday ~1pm ET Nov 13, not closes. SKHY/6861 USD via prior FX. Dropped two news items whose sources were only seen in search. LDI kept at trim. Nov 21-28 calendar not re-verified.
Nothing here is financial advice. Holdings and opinions are my own; the "agent" sections are written by an automated research skill and may be wrong. Built 2026-11-13 18:10 UTC.