Agent picks (researching for future growth)

AI

SKHY:US SK hynix — buy (high conviction) — $191.56
thesis: Holds ~58% of HBM revenue share; Q2 operating income was KRW 60.5T at a 76% margin, and the stock trades on 9.5x earnings. The strike risk is gone: the union approved the revised 50/50 cash-stock bonus deal on Sep 16 with 57.1% of votes. Reuters reports Solidigm is weighing a 2027 IPO at up to $150B, against a ~$9B purchase price.
risks: Memory is cyclical and the most volatile part of any AI selloff (-7.6% on Sep 14). The ADR can trade away from Seoul shares, and Chinese DRAM makers (CXMT) are closing the gap.
catalyst: Q3 2026 earnings ~2026-10-27 (est.); Solidigm IPO bank selection; buyback through November
added 2026-08-24, updated 2026-09-28 — source
ALAB:US Astera Labs — accumulate (medium conviction) — $364.62
thesis: Connectivity silicon (retimers, Scorpio switches) inside AI racks; Q2 revenue $392M, +104% YoY. Up 42% since Sep 14 to $364.62, including +12% on Sep 21, with no negative company news. Scorpio X becoming the largest product line in Q3 is the proof point.
risks: 179x earnings and now within 7% of the $390 consensus target, so the easy rebound is done. Few hyperscaler customers, and Nvidia NVLink competes directly.
catalyst: Q3 2026 earnings 2026-11-03
added 2026-08-24, updated 2026-09-28 — source
AVGO:US Broadcom — accumulate (medium conviction) — $352.81
thesis: Top custom AI chip (XPU) and AI networking supplier; Q3 FY26 AI revenue $16.7B, +221% YoY, Q4 guide ~$34.8B total revenue. Flat since Sep 14 at $352.81 while other chips rebounded; consensus target $532 (+51%).
risks: Off-balance-sheet guarantees on Anthropic chip financing ($35B done, ~$60B more discussed). China's SASAC is surveying Broadcom switches in state data centres (up to 90% share at some) ahead of possible guidance to cut use.
catalyst: Q4 FY2026 earnings ~2026-12-10 (est.); any SASAC guidance on switches
added 2026-08-24, updated 2026-09-28 — source

Internet

SE:US Sea Limited — buy (high conviction) — $99.55
thesis: Q2 revenue $7.8B (+48%): Shopee GMV +28%, Monee loan book $11.1B at 1.0% NPLs. Down 8% since Sep 14 to $99.55 on no company news. Consensus target $157 (+58%), the widest gap on the list.
risks: Competition from TikTok Shop and Temu, and the Brazil push opens a second front against MELI. A Shopee executive's entity sold 60K shares Sep 21-22 under a 10b5-1 plan.
catalyst: Q3 2026 earnings 2026-11-10
added 2026-08-24, updated 2026-09-28 — source
NET:US Cloudflare — accumulate (high conviction) — $349.02
thesis: Edge network that controls bot and AI-agent traffic; Q2 revenue $696M (+36%), 120% net retention. Hit a record $353.04 on Sep 22 and closed at $349.02, +78% YTD.
risks: Trades above the $337 consensus target at ~47x sales, so any growth miss will be punished. Gross margin fell 320bps to 73.1%.
catalyst: Q3 2026 earnings 2026-10-29
added 2026-08-24, updated 2026-09-28 — source
HOOD:US Robinhood Markets — accumulate (medium conviction) — $119.40
thesis: Q2 revenue $1.31B (+32%) at a 57% adjusted EBITDA margin; prediction markets are scaling through equity stakes in OG.com and Crypto.com. $119.40, +4% since Sep 14, consensus $130.
risks: Two engineers were charged Sep 15 with trading on crypto-listing inside information (~$50K+ each). Small money, but the case invites regulatory scrutiny, and revenue swings with retail and crypto volumes at ~53x earnings.
catalyst: Q3 2026 earnings ~2026-11-04 (est.); prediction-market volumes
added 2026-08-24, updated 2026-09-28 — source
MELI:US MercadoLibre — accumulate (medium conviction) — $1,752.61
thesis: LatAm's leading e-commerce and fintech platform; Q2 revenue $10.17B (+50%), the 30th straight quarter above 30%. Down 8% since Sep 14 to $1,752.61, against a $2,272 consensus target (+30%).
risks: Operating margin is 6.7%, down from 12.2%, as it spends on shipping, credit and one-hour Sao Paulo delivery. Nu is competing hard in lending.
catalyst: Q3 2026 earnings 2026-10-28
added 2026-08-24, updated 2026-09-28 — source

Machinery

6861:JP Keyence Corp — buy (high conviction) — $506.27
thesis: Machine vision and sensors for factory automation and robotics; fiscal Q1 sales +33%, net income +51%, operating margin above 50%. JPY 79,600 (+4% since Sep 15); Citi JPY 95,000, consensus JPY 97,867 (+23%).
risks: The premium multiple assumes 30%+ growth. A stronger yen (USD/JPY 157) or slower China capex would hit both earnings and the multiple.
catalyst: Fiscal Q2 results 2026-10-28
added 2026-08-24, updated 2026-09-28 — source
ASML:US ASML Holding — buy (high conviction) — $1,743.94
thesis: Sole EUV supplier; 2026 guide EUR 43-45B at 54-56% gross margin, 2027 EUV capacity essentially sold out. Up 11% since Sep 14 to $1,743.94, with factory throughput now being tested for 110+ tools a year. Consensus $2,116 (+21%).
risks: China export limits and proposed US chip tariffs. It falls hard on AI sentiment swings (-7.3% on Sep 14).
catalyst: Q3 2026 earnings 2026-10-14 (bookings)
added 2026-08-24, updated 2026-09-28 — source
1211:HK BYD — accumulate (medium conviction) — $10.04
thesis: Exports drive growth: August overseas sales +134.5% YoY, ~44% of H1 volume, with local truck production in Europe planned. HK$78.10, near the 52-week low; consensus HK$125.70 (+61%).
risks: August China sales -14.3% as Geely, Xpeng and Leapmotor take share. The price war squeezes margins, and EU tariffs hang over exports.
catalyst: September sales ~2026-10-01; Q3 2026 results 2026-10-29
added 2026-09-27, updated 2026-09-28 — source
TER:US Teradyne — accumulate (medium conviction) — $398.38
thesis: Test equipment for AI and HBM chips (~70% of revenue) plus Universal Robots cobots; Q2 revenue $1.33B, more than double. Up 21% since Sep 14 to $398.38, with a microLED optical test platform (Iris 100) launched Sep 20. Consensus $446 (+12%).
risks: The most volatile AI name on the list (-13.3% on Sep 14) at a premium multiple. Test orders are lumpy and come from a few customers.
catalyst: Q3 2026 earnings 2026-10-27
added 2026-08-24, updated 2026-09-28 — source
7203:JP Toyota Motor — watch (medium conviction) — $19.01
thesis: Hybrid leader as EV adoption slows; demand for the new RAV4 hybrid exceeds supply. JPY 2,989.5, ~8.6x earnings, consensus JPY 3,699 (+24%).
risks: July global sales fell in China, the US and the Middle East, and factory automation may cost JPY 1T a year from 2028. Yen and US tariffs are swing factors.
catalyst: Fiscal H1 results 2026-11-05
added 2026-09-27, updated 2026-09-28 — source
TSLA:US Tesla — watch (medium conviction) — $361.13
thesis: Car demand is falling while the valuation rests on robotaxi, storage and Optimus. Semi deliveries started last week, and the Roadster is unveiled Oct 1. Track it, don't chase it.
risks: JPMorgan cut its target to $415 from $445 on Sep 28 and trimmed Q3 delivery estimates, flagging weakness in two key markets; the stock fell 3% to $361. The EU pushed its FSD vote to December at the earliest.
catalyst: Roadster unveil 2026-10-01; Q3 deliveries 2026-10-02; Q3 earnings 2026-10-28
added 2026-09-27, updated 2026-09-28 — source

Energy

GEV:US GE Vernova — accumulate (high conviction) — $957.63
thesis: Bottleneck supplier of gas turbines and grid gear for AI power; Q2 orders $24.2B (+88% organic), backlog ~$176B. Up 9% since Sep 14 to $957.63; the CEO told Morgan Stanley's Laguna conference that gas capacity additions grow 50% this year. Consensus target $1,237.
risks: Premium multiple on a cyclical business (GLJ Sell, $470 target). Tariffs cost $100-200M in 2026, and offshore wind still loses money.
catalyst: Q3 2026 earnings 2026-10-28 (orders the key number)
added 2026-08-24, updated 2026-09-28 — source
BE:US Bloom Energy — watch (medium conviction) — $263.78
thesis: On-site fuel cells for AI data centres; Q2 revenue $1.07B, +166%, with 2026 guidance of $3.9-4.2B. Oracle said Sep 25 it still backs the 2.4 GW Project Jupiter contract. Fell 8.6% to $263.78 early Monday Sep 28 with no company news found, giving back Friday's Oracle bounce.
risks: Oracle's force majeure notice on Jupiter stands: the gas pipeline slipped to Feb 2027 and the fuel-cell air permit is due Nov 23. Still ~347x earnings with several class actions pending.
catalyst: Q3 2026 earnings 2026-10-27; Jupiter air-quality permit decision by 2026-11-23
added 2026-08-24, updated 2026-09-28 — source

Nothing here is financial advice. Holdings and opinions are my own; the "agent" sections are written by an automated research skill and may be wrong. Built 2026-09-28 21:35 UTC.