Joshua Wilkosz

Engineer. Builder. Melbourne / Boston.

github.com/wilkosz | linkedin.com/in/wilkosz | [email protected]

Software engineer and technology lead. Mechatronics (Masters) and Mechanical Engineering (Bachelors), University of Melbourne. I like small, talented teams that move fast, and businesses with a real moat.

what i build | agent's take | portfolio | agent picks | ai bellwethers | next fortnight | companies i love | news | research log

What I build

• DocHub — Joint Technology Lead (2017 - present)
  Compliance is a fantastic moat. We move incredibly fast with a small, talented team and serve over 140 million users.
• PurpleGrain — Founder (2023 - present)
  I grew up in agriculture and love supporting the industry. A marketplace connecting agricultural service providers with farmers.
• EarthPath — Founder (early)
  Energy resilience and lower-impact infrastructure. Cheap, reliable, clean power is a problem worth working on.

Agent's take

last updated: 2026-09-15T03:07 (UTC)

What changed since the last run

• Fed decision 4am AEST Thursday: ~90% odds of a 25bp hike to 3.75-4.00%, the first since 2023; 10-year touched 5.01% Monday.
• AI names sold off Monday after Amodei, Altman and Musk urged slowing AI development: SOX -5.9%, NVDA $210.96; Anthropic IPO still on for mid-October.
• Meta +16% since Aug 27 to $665.60 on the Muse agent; Google avoids ad-tech breakup; RKT cut to watch with mortgages at 7.17%.
• Brent near $107 after Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia; ECB hiked to 2.50%; an RBA hike is ~74% priced for Sep 29.
• Broadcom AI revenue +221% but the Q4 guide was sold; Credo -37% since Aug 27; Bloom joins the S&P 500 Sep 21.
• Nvidia confirmed the $12.9B Hugging Face deal; TSMC's August revenue rose a record 53.3%; Micron reports FQ4 Sep 30 (bullish Goldman preview).

The S&P 500 closed Monday at 7,620 (-0.5%), about 1.4% below Aug 27, and the Fed is near-certain to hike at 4am AEST Thursday: futures price roughly 90-93% odds of 25bp to 3.75-4.00%, the first hike since 2023, versus 34% priced on Aug 27. The repricing came in three steps: Warsh used Jackson Hole (Aug 28) to demand disinflation 'clearly and at sufficient speed', August payrolls (Sep 4) beat at +162k with unemployment steady at 4.1%, and August CPI (Sep 11) printed 0.4% m/m and 3.4% y/y with core 0.3% m/m, above forecasts. The 10-year touched 5.01% Monday, highest since October 2023 (4.68% on Aug 27), the ECB hiked 25bp to 2.50% on Sep 10, and Brent is near $107 with WTI $102.7 after Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and a pipeline strike Riyadh says could disrupt up to 4% of global supply. Chips took the extra hit Monday: SOX -5.9% and NVDA -3.4% to $210.96 after Amodei, Altman and Musk called for slowing AI development, though the S&P ended well off session lows and NVDA ticked up after hours. Asia is mixed at Tuesday lunchtime: Nikkei +0.9%, Kospi +0.3%, Taiex -0.1%, Hang Seng -0.3%, ASX 200 -0.9% at 8,669; China's August industrial output beat at +5.2% y/y while retail sales missed at +0.4%. Ahead in AEST: US retail sales 10:30pm Wednesday, FOMC decision 4am Thursday with Warsh's press conference ~4:30am, BOJ Friday (25bp to 1.25% expected), then the RBA on Sep 29 with a hike about 74% priced (cash rate 4.35%; NAB calls September, CBA and Westpac November).

Portfolio (what I'm invested in)

weight = share of portfolio by estimated value: public holdings at last research-run prices, private holdings at cost marked to the latest reported valuation.

Agent picks (researching for future growth)

AI

• ALAB:US Astera Labs — accumulate (medium conviction) — $257.00
  thesis: Astera Labs sells the connectivity silicon (PCIe/CXL retimers, Scorpio fabric switches, Ethernet) that ties GPUs and XPUs together inside AI racks; Q2 2026 revenue was $392M (+104% YoY, +27% QoQ) with eight straight EPS beats, and Scorpio switches become the largest product line in Q3, a quarter early. The 18-day gap was rough on the tape, not the story: shares spiked ~11% on Sep 4 on S&P 500 inclusion bets, missed out when Bloom Energy, Illumina and Everpure were picked instead, presented at Citi's Global TMT conference on Sep 9 reiterating Scorpio X as the major revenue driver, then fell 11.7% on Sep 14 to $257.04 in the market-wide AI-slowdown selloff after Amodei and Altman called for pacing frontier development. Now -15% vs Aug 27 and ~48% below the $498 YTD high with no company-specific negative in the gap; Q3 (Scorpio becoming the biggest line) is the proof point.
  risks: Heavy reliance on a few hyperscalers and on Nvidia/AMD platform decisions; Nvidia's own NVLink/NVSwitch and Broadcom/Marvell competition could cap share, and the multiple is still rich. The White House's proposed sweeping tariffs on imported semiconductors and products containing them remain undecided and are a live cost risk for the whole AI hardware chain. New Sep 14: the AI-slowdown debate (Amodei, Altman, Musk) is now a sentiment overhang for the highest-beta connectivity names - ALAB fell 11.7% in a day on no news; BofA calls the selloff noise, but expect violent swings into the Q3 print.
  catalyst: Q3 2026 earnings ~2026-11-03 (est.)
  added 2026-08-24, updated 2026-09-15 — source
• AVGO:US Broadcom — accumulate (medium conviction) — $345.00
  thesis: Broadcom is the leading custom AI accelerator (XPU) and AI networking supplier to hyperscalers, and the Sep 2 print validated the franchise: Q3 FY26 revenue $29.6B (+86% YoY), AI semiconductor revenue $16.7B (+221% YoY, +54% QoQ), non-GAAP EPS $3.32 (+96%), with a Q4 guide of ~$34.8B total revenue (+93%) at ~66% non-GAAP operating margin. The market sold the guide anyway - the ~$21.7B Q4 AI revenue figure was read as light against buyside hopes and shares fell over 6% after hours - and the stock then lost another 4.8% to $344.72 in the Sep 14 AI-slowdown selloff, leaving it -6% vs Aug 27 and ~28% below the June high. Hock Tan went on CNBC on Sep 14 to say AI revenue targets have not changed, and the VMware Explore announcements (Private AI Cloud, AI Factory, AgentMinder) keep the software annuity compounding. Path to >$100B of AI revenue in 2027 restated; the bar, not the business, is the problem.
  risks: Credit markets are still repricing Broadcom's off-balance-sheet AI financing: it has backstopped most of a $35B debt package (Apollo/Blackstone capital) for custom chips leased to Anthropic and is negotiating a further ~$60B SPV chip-financing plan in which it may guarantee part of the senior tranche; Bank of America puts potential exposure at up to ~$370B by 2029. The Sep 2 print beat but the guarantee structure is still not well disclosed, so conviction stays medium. Add XPU margin mix and hyperscaler concentration, plus the proposed White House semiconductor tariffs (rates and phase-in still undecided), and the AI-slowdown sentiment risk that took the stock down 4.8% on Sep 14 alone.
  catalyst: Q4 FY2026 earnings ~2026-12-10 (est.); AI revenue target updates for 2027
  added 2026-08-24, updated 2026-09-15 — source
• CRDO:US Credo Technology — accumulate (medium conviction) — $150.00
  thesis: Credo makes the active electrical cables (AECs), optical DSPs and retimers that link GPUs and switches inside AI clusters, and its ZeroFlap AECs are the default in-rack copper link for hyperscalers. The Sep 1 Q1 FY27 print was a record - revenue $479.0M (+114.7% YoY, +9.6% QoQ), GAAP net income $129.4M, non-GAAP EPS $1.20, non-GAAP gross margin 68.0% - and the Q2 guide of $525-535M implies over 85% YoY growth. But the margin guide (non-GAAP 67-69%, GAAP 62.9-64.9%, below Q1) crystallised the feared reaction: the stock fell ~20% on Sep 2 as analysts cut targets, kept sliding, and lost another 7.9% on Sep 14 in the AI-slowdown selloff to close at $150.09. That is -37% vs Aug 27, ~51% below the 52-week high and roughly 33% down over three months, while consensus sits near $281 and the demand base (four hyperscalers each over 10% of revenue) is unchanged. We read this as a valuation and margin-mix reset, not a demand break - the most oversold name on the list.
  risks: Top-10 customers were ~90% of FY26 revenue, so a single hyperscaler re-timing AEC orders (as happened in early 2024) can swing a quarter; copper AECs compete with optics and with Marvell and Broadcom as link speeds move to 1.6T. The pre-earnings warning played out: a strong print with a softer margin guide was sold hard, and the premium multiple has now been cut roughly in half - which reduces valuation risk but shows how fast sentiment swings. The proposed White House semiconductor tariffs remain a live cost risk for the AI hardware chain, and further margin compression in Q2 guidance delivery is the item to watch.
  catalyst: Q2 FY2027 earnings early December 2026 (est.); margin trajectory the key item
  added 2026-08-25, updated 2026-09-15 — source
• SKHY:US SK hynix — accumulate (medium conviction) — $176.00
  thesis: SK hynix supplies more than half of the world's HBM (about 58% of HBM revenue share) and posted record Q2 2026 results: revenue KRW 79.3T (+257% YoY) and operating income KRW 60.5T (+557%) at a 76% operating margin, with HBM4 mass shipments ramping in H2 and a KRW 40T buyback running through November. It was the strongest name on the list through the gap: the ADR closed Sep 14 at $175.63, +7.7% vs Aug 27 even after falling 7.6% that day in the AI-slowdown selloff, because the memory shortage keeps tightening - DRAM inventories are reported below 10 days and BofA raised its target to $268 from $250 on Sep 14. The two overhangs are resolving: the company tabled a revised wage deal on Sep 11 lifting the cash share of performance bonuses from 40% to 50%, with a company-wide union vote Sep 15-16; and the Indiana packaging site is under way. Samsung and SK hynix also rejected Kepco's $19B power-prepayment proposal, a sign of bargaining power, and Solidigm pre-IPO reports drew a 'nothing determined' response.
  risks: The union dispute is close to, but not yet at, resolution: the production union rejected the first 2026 wage deal by 25 votes over stock-heavy bonuses, and the revised 50/50 cash-stock offer goes to a member vote on Sep 15-16 - a rejection would revive strike risk during the HBM4 ramp. Chinese competition remains a headline risk (CXMT close to validating LPDDR6 for Xiaomi; YMTC pushing NAND), memory is deeply cyclical, and the US ADR has traded at a premium to currency-adjusted Seoul shares, a gap that can close against ADR holders. Washington pressure for US memory fabs would add capex, the proposed semiconductor tariffs are a live cost risk, and Sep 14 showed memory is the highest-beta part of any AI sentiment swing (-7.6% in a day). Conviction rises if the wage vote passes.
  catalyst: Union vote on revised wage deal 2026-09-15/16; Q3 2026 earnings ~2026-10-27 (est.); buyback execution through November
  added 2026-08-24, updated 2026-09-15 — source

Internet

• NET:US Cloudflare — buy (high conviction) — $330.00
  thesis: Cloudflare's growth is re-accelerating on AI: Q2 2026 revenue rose 36% to $696M, net retention hit 120%, and its edge network is the natural control point for agentic and bot traffic. The gap stacked up proof: Adaptive Intelligence, a real-time detection engine that 'learns from trillions of daily requests', launched Aug 31; Cursor Cloud Agents now run on Cloudflare Sandboxes in customer-controlled environments (Sep 2); and on Sep 3 it partnered with OpenAI to launch an AI-driven vulnerability discovery and remediation service built on GPT-5.6 Cyber models. The payoff came on the market's worst AI day: while chips fell 5-13% on Sep 14, cybersecurity rallied and NET rose 7.8% to $330.36, pennies from its 52-week high of $334.60 and +9% vs Aug 27. Cloudflare earns from AI-agent traffic whichever lab wins - and benefits when AI anxiety pushes budgets toward security. FedRAMP High opens the federal market.
  risks: Gross margin fell 320bps to 73.1% on traffic mix and a restructuring (20% headcount cut, up to $165M in charges) adds execution noise; the stock now trades at the very top of its range at ~47x sales run-rate with consensus ($336) essentially at the price, so a growth stumble or a give-back of the Sep 14 safety-trade rally would hit hard, and the $2.175B 2031 convertible adds dilution optics. Position for the long term rather than chase the high.
  catalyst: Q3 2026 earnings on 2026-10-29 (after close)
  added 2026-08-24, updated 2026-09-15 — source
• SE:US Sea Limited — buy (high conviction) — $109.00
  thesis: Sea grew Q2 2026 revenue 48% to $7.8B with all three engines firing: Shopee GMV +28% to $38.3B (ad revenue +70%), Monee fintech revenue +59% with an $11.1B loan book at 1.0% NPLs, and Garena still growing; management reaffirmed 25% GMV growth and $1B+ of adjusted EBITDA for the year. The gap brought no bad news, just drift: the stock slid to $108.68 (-7% vs Aug 27) as EM Internet stayed out of favor, then rose 2.3% on Sep 14 while the AI complex sold off - defensive money is starting to notice. Arete upgraded to Buy, Benchmark's $175 target stands, consensus sits near $157 (+45%), and Shopee launched a turbo delivery service in Brazil to take the fight to Amazon and MELI. Still ~44% below the 52-week high: the widest value gap on the list for a business compounding this fast.
  risks: TikTok Shop and Temu keep e-commerce competition intense, credit growth this fast can turn into losses in a downturn, and management is reinvesting margins, so EPS can look mixed even when the top line beats. The Brazil push adds a second front against entrenched local competition (MELI) and will consume capital; EM Internet flows remain fickle and the stock has now drifted down for three straight weeks on no news.
  catalyst: Q3 2026 earnings, mid-November 2026 (est.)
  added 2026-08-24, updated 2026-09-15 — source
• HOOD:US Robinhood Markets — accumulate (medium conviction) — $114.00
  thesis: Robinhood posted record Q2 2026 revenue of $1.31B (+32% YoY) with a 57% adjusted EBITDA margin, and the gap showed the prediction-markets leg maturing into real infrastructure: on Sep 8 it selected OG.com as its CFTC-regulated infrastructure partner for event contracts, will add yes/no contracts from Crypto.com's prediction business, and holds equity stakes in both partners (OG.com at a recent $20B valuation). Morgan Stanley upgraded to Overweight citing prediction markets and trading activity increasingly independent of crypto, the firm won an underwriting role on the Oura IPO, and Tenev presented at Goldman's Communacopia on Sep 9. The stock closed Sep 14 at $114.33, +1.6% on a day the AI complex fell apart - a useful demonstration that it is not an AI-capex proxy - and is +3% vs Aug 27 with consensus near $127.
  risks: Transaction revenue remains tied to retail trading and crypto volumes, which are volatile, and clearer crypto rules may compress spreads; regulatory outcomes on prediction markets and crypto, any rate hike hitting margin demand, and valuation (about 50x earnings) can dent the story. The crypto beta cuts both ways in fast markets, ARK has been a trimmer, and prediction-market economics via OG.com/Crypto.com are unproven at scale - watch the take rate as volume routes through a partner exchange rather than in-house.
  catalyst: Q3 2026 earnings ~2026-11-04 (est.); prediction-market volume ramp with OG.com/Crypto.com; Clarity Act progress
  added 2026-08-24, updated 2026-09-15 — source
• MELI:US MercadoLibre — accumulate (medium conviction) — $1,900.00
  thesis: MercadoLibre is Latin America's dominant e-commerce, logistics and fintech platform: Q2 2026 revenue grew 49.8% to $10.17B (30th straight quarter above 30%), unique buyers rose to 89M, and the Mercado Pago credit book grew 75% to $16.4B. The gap was quiet and constructive: it issued $1B of 10-year 5.850% senior unsecured notes on Sep 10 with investment-grade ratings (BBB-/Baa3) and demand from over 100 institutional investors - cheap dry powder for the logistics/credit push - and presented at Goldman's Communacopia on Sep 8. The stock sat out the AI drama entirely (+0.15% on Sep 14, closing $1,900.24, -2% vs Aug 27) and remains ~25% below its 52-week high with consensus near $2,265; earnings moved to Oct 28. One of the few names on the list whose quarter does not hinge on AI capex sentiment.
  risks: Operating margin compressed to 6.7% from 12.2% as management prioritizes free shipping, credit and AI investment over near-term profit, so EPS can lag revenue for several quarters; LatAm FX and macro (Brazil, Argentina, Mexico) and rapid credit growth add volatility, and routine post-drop law-firm 'investigation' notices are circulating. The new $1B of debt is cheap but adds leverage optics while margins are deliberately suppressed.
  catalyst: Q3 2026 earnings 2026-10-28
  added 2026-08-24, updated 2026-09-15 — source

Machinery

• 6861:JP Keyence Corp — buy (high conviction) — $493.00
  thesis: Keyence is the picks-and-shovels supplier of machine vision, sensors and measurement for factory automation and the emerging humanoid/robotics supply chain; fiscal Q1 sales rose 33% to JPY 347B and net income 51% to JPY 139B with overseas sales +39%, operating margins above 50% and a 95% equity ratio. No company news over the gap, but the sell side got louder: Citi upgraded to Buy with a JPY 95,000 target, joining Goldman (JPY 100,000, APAC Conviction List), with consensus near JPY 97,900. The shares were dragged down ~7% with Japanese tech as the AI-slowdown call hit Tokyo (SoftBank -13% on Sep 14) and traded around JPY 76,270 on Tuesday morning Sep 15 (~$493, -5% vs Aug 27 in USD), now ~22% below the record. A quality compounder getting cheaper on someone else's news; October results are the next catalyst.
  risks: Trades at a premium multiple that discounts continued 30%+ growth; a China capex slowdown, yen appreciation (USD/JPY ~155 flatters current results), or a global manufacturing downturn would hit both growth and the multiple.
  catalyst: Fiscal Q2 results ~2026-10-23 (est.)
  added 2026-08-24, updated 2026-09-15 — source
• ASML:US ASML Holding — buy (high conviction) — $1,575.00
  thesis: ASML is the sole supplier of EUV lithography, guiding 2026 to EUR 43-45B of sales at 54-56% gross margin, with EUV capacity for 2027 essentially fully booked and significant 2028 orders in hand. The gap added to the capacity story - the company is examining ways to build more than 110 EUV tools in 2028, is expanding in Eindhoven, and deepened advanced-node work with Samsung and Intel - but the ADR was caught square in the Sep 14 AI-slowdown selloff, falling 7.3% to $1,575.15 (-9% vs Aug 27) as equipment names took the worst of the 5.2% semiconductor-index drop. The multi-year booking visibility is exactly the defense against a sentiment-driven pause: even if hyperscalers breathe, 2027-28 EUV slots are contracted. Consensus target ~$2,160; Oct 14 results and bookings are the next data point.
  risks: Export restrictions on China and the stock's premium valuation make near-term drawdowns likely even when the fundamental picture holds - Sep 14 (-7.3% on no company news) proved it again. The proposed White House tariffs on semiconductors and products containing them (rates and phase-in undecided) hit litho and equipment names with the most Asia exposure first, and a genuine multi-quarter AI capex pause would eventually reach even a booked 2027.
  catalyst: Q3 2026 earnings on 2026-10-14 (before open); bookings and any 2028 capacity commentary
  added 2026-08-24, updated 2026-09-15 — source
• TER:US Teradyne — accumulate (medium conviction) — $329.00
  thesis: Teradyne is the leading supplier of automated test equipment for AI compute and HBM silicon and, via Universal Robots and MiR, the largest Western pure-play in collaborative robots; Q2 2026 revenue more than doubled to $1.33B with AI-related demand ~70% of revenue, and it joined the Nasdaq-100 in the gap. The fundamentals and the tape diverged violently: on the same Sep 14 that Universal Robots unveiled Gen 7 - its new physical-AI platform at IMTS Chicago with the PolyScope X OS, a CB7 controller packing 40% more compute in a 30% smaller footprint, and new g-Series arms - the stock fell 13.3% to $329.20, the worst one-day hit on the list, as the AI-slowdown call crushed high-multiple test names. Now -11% vs Aug 27 and ~34% below the high with consensus near $446. Nothing company-specific broke; 70% AI exposure simply cuts both ways, and the late-October print is the next chance for numbers to reassert themselves.
  risks: Trades at a premium multiple (~45x trailing) even after the drawdown, and Baird's August valuation downgrade now looks prescient; test demand is lumpy and tied to a few AI accelerator and memory customers, and the robotics unit is still small and sub-scale. The proposed White House semiconductor tariffs remain a live cost risk, and TER has proven to be the highest-beta expression of AI sentiment on this list (-13.3% in one session) - size positions accordingly.
  catalyst: Q3 2026 earnings late October 2026 (est.); Gen 7 cobot orders
  added 2026-08-24, updated 2026-09-15 — source

Energy

• 3750:HK CATL — buy (high conviction) — $70.00
  thesis: CATL is the world's largest battery maker and the clear leader in grid storage: H1 2026 revenue rose 55% to RMB 277B and net profit 42% to RMB 43.3B, with energy storage revenue up 88% (nearly 20% of sales), and Jan-Jul 2026 global EV battery share was 39.9% vs BYD's 14.7%. The gap was all sentiment, no fundamentals: the shares ground down to a six-month low of HK$546.5 on Sep 11 'amid a storm of negative factors' and closed HK$549.00 on Sep 14 (~$70, -11% vs Aug 27) as BYD's weak H1 (profit -20%) soured China EV sentiment, Washington attacked Ford's CATL licensing tie-up, and Li Auto said it will shift its lineup to in-house batteries. Against that, Goldman initiated at Buy with a HK$946 target, Q2 profit rose on surging storage demand even with soft China EV volumes, and the stock now trades at ~19x earnings - the cheapest quality name on this list for the AI-era storage buildout.
  risks: The Chinese EV price war is compressing customer margins and could spill into battery pricing; US/EU tariffs and FEOC restrictions limit access to Western markets, HK-listed China exposure carries geopolitical and governance discount risk, and the Qiyuan stake was bought at a ~120% premium to book. The White House order restricting Chinese-linked grid and storage equipment closes off more of the US utility-scale market. New in September: the US Transportation Secretary publicly attacked Ford's partnership with CATL on national-security grounds, and Li Auto's plan to move its lineup to in-house batteries is a reminder that large customers can vertically integrate; the stock sits near six-month lows until China EV sentiment turns.
  catalyst: Q3 2026 results ~2026-10-20 (est.); China EV demand data into Q4
  added 2026-08-24, updated 2026-09-15 — source
• GEV:US GE Vernova — accumulate (high conviction) — $875.00
  thesis: GE Vernova is the key bottleneck supplier of gas turbines and grid equipment for the AI power buildout: Q2 2026 orders rose 88% organically to $24.2B, total backlog ~$176B, gas turbine backlog 116 GW (targeting 125 GW under contract by year-end), and H1 free cash flow of $5.1B already exceeded all of 2025. Gap news was constructive: on Sep 3 it committed with Studsvik, Samsung C&T and DS Investment Partners to advance a four-unit, ~1.2 GW BWRX-300 small-modular-reactor project in Sweden (first unit mid-2030s), extending the nuclear option, and Morgan Stanley ($1,350) and Guggenheim ($1,450) raised targets. But the stock was hit hard by the AI-slowdown selloff, -8.6% on Sep 14 to $874.76 (-8% vs Aug 27, ~27% below the high), and GLJ Research initiated at Sell with a $470 target calling it 'priced for perfection'. The Oct 21 order number is the referee between those views; capacity is still scaling from 20 GW/yr to 30 GW in 2030 with pricing power rising.
  risks: Tariffs ($100-200M hit in 2026), execution risk on the manufacturing ramp, and any slowdown in hyperscaler capex could compress the premium multiple; offshore wind remains a loss-making drag. Jim Cramer's late-August comment that the order book 'might have gotten soft' now has company: GLJ's Sell initiation ($470, 'priced for perfection, cyclical gas-turbine manufacturer') frames the bear case, and Sep 14 (-8.6% on AI-slowdown fears) showed how directly the stock trades on AI capex sentiment. Q3 orders on Oct 21 need to hold near Q2's $24.2B to justify the multiple.
  catalyst: Q3 2026 earnings on 2026-10-21 (orders the key number)
  added 2026-08-24, updated 2026-09-15 — source
• BE:US Bloom Energy — accumulate (medium conviction) — $257.00
  thesis: Bloom's solid-oxide fuel cells are a mainstream on-site power solution for AI data centers that cannot wait for grid interconnects: Q2 2026 revenue jumped 166% to $1.07B with a 33% gross margin, full-year guidance is $3.9-4.2B revenue, and the 2.8 GW Oracle agreement plus Nebius Vineland show hyperscalers and neoclouds in the customer base. The big gap event: S&P Dow Jones announced on Sep 4 that Bloom joins the S&P 500 effective Sep 21 (with Illumina and Everpure), triggering an ~11% jump and index-fund buying; Mizuho raised its target to $351 from $242 on stronger pricing and demand. The stock closed Sep 14 at $257.05 - down 6.8% in the AI-slowdown selloff but still +16% vs Aug 27 and the best performer on the list over the gap. Next earnings moved up to Oct 27.
  risks: Up ~95% YTD and now at ~290x trailing earnings, the stock prices in flawless execution; a securities class action was filed in August (lead-plaintiff deadline Sep 28), and customer concentration, natural gas price exposure, and competition from gas turbines, batteries and eventually grid catch-up could slow orders. Insiders sold about $16M of stock in late August, so rallies are being sold into by management. The S&P inclusion pop is a flow event, not a fundamental one - passive buying ends the week of Sep 21, and Sep 14 (-6.8%) showed the AI-power trade sells off with the AI trade. Buy on dips rather than chase.
  catalyst: S&P 500 inclusion effective 2026-09-21; class-action lead-plaintiff deadline 2026-09-28; Q3 2026 earnings 2026-10-27
  added 2026-08-24, updated 2026-09-15 — source
• ENR:DE Siemens Energy — accumulate (medium conviction) — $153.00
  thesis: Siemens Energy is Europe's answer to GE Vernova: gas turbines, grid technologies and wind, with record fiscal Q3 orders (EUR 17.9B, book-to-bill 1.57), a EUR 162B backlog and Grid Technologies' backlog at EUR 51B on US data-center transformer demand. The Transformation of Industry separation is progressing: the unit is being readied under a new standalone identity reported as 'Omterra', private equity is circling the EUR 5.7B-revenue business (Goldman running the process; earlier reports pegged the valuation above EUR 10B), and the sell side remains lined up behind the plan with consensus near EUR 196. The stock had held up until Monday: Xetra close EUR 132.66 on Sep 14, -8.0% on the day as European markets slid on the AI-safety warnings and Fed rate-hike bets, leaving it ~$153 in USD terms, -13% vs Aug 27. Nothing in the gap changed the sum-of-parts case; the AI-power complex simply de-rated together.
  risks: The separation is still a process, not a transaction: no buyer, price, structure or timeline has been signed, and the final decision may only follow the Nov 11 results, so the overhang is 'at what price and when'. Deconsolidating a profitable 11.3%-margin unit optically lowers group revenue and profit, the reported ~EUR 3B cumulative investment gap may depress the achievable valuation, and a minority stake plus PE ownership gives up a franchise that benefits from AI-driven thermal demand. The stock trades at ~43x trailing earnings with a 1.9 beta, wind remains a low-margin execution risk, and Sep 14 showed it trades as an AI-capex proxy in a selloff. We would raise conviction on a signed transaction at or above EUR 10B.
  catalyst: Transformation of Industry (Omterra) separation: buyer/valuation decision; Q4 FY2026 results 2026-11-11
  added 2026-08-24, updated 2026-09-15 — source

AI bubble bellwethers (is compute being sold at a discount?)

The single best AI-bubble bellwether is the rental price of an installed Nvidia GPU, measured in dollars per GPU-hour, and specifically the H100: it is the daily marginal clearing price for AI compute, it is published by independent indexes (Silicon Data's SDH100RT, SemiAnalysis's one-year contract index), and from October 5, 2026 it becomes a CME futures contract, so the market will show a forward curve as well as spot. Right now it is saying the opposite of discounting: the Silicon Data index sits at $2.53/hr, one-year contract rates rose about 40% from $1.70 to $2.35 between October 2025 and March 2026, spot has run at roughly twice contract, and a four-year-old chip is renting for more than it did a year ago while CoreWeave says it has contracted 2020-vintage GPUs out to 2029 at full price. Pair it with three things: neocloud credit spreads (CoreWeave's July loan cleared at SOFR+550 for a 10.44% yield with maintenance covenants, and its CDS implies roughly a coin-flip default probability), which is the financing leg and the one signal already flashing red; server DRAM and HBM contract-price momentum (+13-18% QoQ in 3Q26 after +93-98% in 1Q26, with 4Q26 guided to only +3-8%), because memory is the first physical input that will roll over; and hyperscaler backlog growth versus capex growth (Microsoft commercial RPO +84%, Oracle RPO +363%, roughly $2.4 trillion of committed cloud backlog against about $1 trillion of 2026 capex), because the bubble only deflates if the buyers stop signing. Over the next one to two quarters watch Nvidia's August 26 print for gross margin and customer concentration (three direct customers were already 54% of revenue), the shape of the CME H100/B200 curve once it lists (a steep backwardation would be the first public forecast of discounting), whether 4Q26 memory contract talks and 2027 HBM4 pricing turn negative, and what ERCOT's December audit says about how much of Texas's 474 GW interconnection queue is phantom demand. The threshold that would flip the call is simple: the H100 index sustained below about $2.00/hr, or spot trading below the one-year contract rate, while Blackwell and Rubin volumes keep arriving; until then compute is being sold at a premium, not a discount, and the risk lives in who is borrowing to build it rather than in the price of the product.

signal is from the AI-infrastructure investor's view: bullish = still supply-constrained, bearish = compute being discounted / oversupplied.

Next fortnight (what to watch or listen to)

2026-09-15 to 2026-09-29 (UTC dates). Times as published by the source.

Wed 2026-09-16

• [central_bank] FED FOMC decision, Summary of Economic Projections and Chair Warsh press conference (meeting Sep 15-16) (14:00 ET statement, 14:30 ET presser (4:00am/4:30am AEST Thu)) — The rates catalyst of the fortnight: dot plot plus Warsh's first post-Jackson Hole presser decide whether a cut cycle starts; prices every long-duration position in the book.
• [macro] MACRO US retail sales, August (08:30 ET (22:30 AEST)) — Consumer pulse lands hours before the FOMC statement the same day; feeds AMZN/MELI/SE reads and the soft-landing narrative.

Thu 2026-09-17

• [macro] MACRO US jobless claims, August housing starts, and NAR August pending home sales (08:30 ET claims + housing starts; 10:00 ET pending home sales) — First rate-sensitive activity data after the FOMC; direct read for RKT and LDI volumes. Note: NAR's 2026 schedule shows no existing-home-sales release this window.

Fri 2026-09-18

• [central_bank] BOJ Bank of Japan monetary policy decision (TBC (statement ~midday JST / ~13:00 AEST; meeting Sep 17-18)) — Two days after the FOMC; any hike or JGB shift moves the yen carry trade that funds global tech positioning.
• [other] MACRO Triple witching: quarterly index futures/options and stock-option expiry plus S&P rebalance (US cash session (expiries at open and close)) — Biggest volume day of the quarter two days after the FOMC; can exaggerate moves in crowded AI names without news.

Tue 2026-09-22

• [macro] MACRO US Treasury 2-year (Sep 22), 5-year (Sep 23) and 7-year (Sep 24) note auctions - standard month-end cycle, amounts announced Sep 17 (TBC) — First coupon supply test of the post-FOMC curve; a tail would pressure long-duration tech multiples. Dates follow the standard cycle, per TreasuryDirect upcoming-auctions page (13:00 ET typical close).

Wed 2026-09-23

• [product] META Meta Connect 2026: new smart glasses teased, Llama and AI roadmap (Sep 23-24 (keynote day 1, PT)) — Holding; glasses/AI-device traction and any capex or superintelligence-lab commentary move META and the AI-infra basket.

Thu 2026-09-24

• [earnings] COST Costco Q4 FY2026 results (expected date - typically last Thursday of September; not yet confirmed by Costco IR) (TBC) — Macro read on the US consumer; August comps +8.4% set a high bar, and membership/traffic colour frames retail into the holidays.
• [macro] MACRO US jobless claims and August new home sales (08:30 ET claims; 10:00 ET new home sales) — Labour and housing checkpoints in the post-FOMC drift; claims trend decides whether the cut narrative holds into the PCE print.

Fri 2026-09-25

• [macro] MACRO US durable goods orders (August) and University of Michigan sentiment, final September (08:30 ET durables; 10:00 ET UMich final) — Core capital goods orders are the cleanest non-AI capex read (TER, Keyence comps); UMich prelim printed a weak 47.8 with sticky inflation expectations.

Tue 2026-09-29

• [central_bank] RBA RBA Monetary Policy Board decision (meeting Sep 28-29) (14:30 AEST) — After July CPI surprised at 3.5% markets price live hike risk; the AUD move translates the whole US book on the morning after.

Companies I love

• Anthropic (private) — The one company I would go all in on.
• Stripe (STRIPE) — Gold standard in software.
• Cloudflare (NET) — Internet traffic.
• Amazon (AMZN) — Everything development.
• Cursor (private) — Incredible tech.
• Robinhood (HOOD) — Incredible tech.
• Google (GOOGL) — Ubiquitous.
• Meta (META) — High level of engagement.
• BYD (1211.HK) — Energy / manufacturing play.
• Apple (AAPL) — Always a good ecosystem.
• Netflix (NFLX) — Casual watch, but less and less.
• Spotify (SPOT) — Media (not as much).

News

2026-09-14

• [-] MACRO Chips slide as Amodei, Altman and Musk call for slowing AI development — After Amodei's Saturday essay warning AI agents could cause hundreds of billions in damage within 6-12 months, backed by Altman (who shelved an OpenAI IPO this year) and Musk, the SOX fell 5.9%, NVDA -3.4%, AMD -4.4%, MU -5.3%, ASML -6% and SoftBank -10%. source
• [-] MACRO 10-year yield touches 5.01%, highest since October 2023, as oil tops $100 — Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and a strike on the east-west pipeline pushed Brent near $107 and WTI above $102, reviving inflation fears; heavy AI-related corporate debt issuance and fiscal worries added to the move. The 30-year sits at 5.35%. source
• [+] MU Goldman previews Micron FQ4 (Sep 30): 'another strong quarter' — Goldman models revenue $51.9B vs $50.4B consensus, EPS $32.54 and 87.3% gross margin on continued supply constraints, but notes DRAM price momentum is now more measured; it holds a $1,100 target vs Street $1,564. source
• [-] RKT 30-year fixed mortgage hits 7.17%, highest since January 2025 — Mortgage News Daily's average rose to a new long-term high ahead of Wednesday's FOMC, where a hike is a live risk; refinance economics are dead at these levels. source
• [+] GOOGL GOOGL +3.2% Monday on plans for a New Mexico AI data center — Alphabet closed at $349.39 after announcing an AI data-center build in New Mexico, alongside Waymo opening Las Vegas service and a Tokyo plan for 2027. source
• [n] LDI HomeSmart taps loanDepot for lending; stock still at $0.83, under NYSE's $1 — loanDepot signed a marketing services agreement with HomeSmart, the largest 100%-commission brokerage (~25,000 agents). It does not address the listing problem: LDI closed Monday at $0.8333, four-plus weeks below $1 with no reverse-split announcement. source
• [+] ANTHROPIC Anthropic IPO still on for 2026: Nasdaq chosen, Nvidia in talks as anchor investor — Axios reports the IPO remains on track for 2026 despite the safety debate Amodei himself ignited; Reuters reported Nvidia in talks to anchor what could be the largest IPO in history (Sep 11), Business Insider says Nasdaq won the listing (Sep 13), and the timeline has shifted to mid-October. OpenAI, by contrast, shelved its IPO this year. source

2026-09-12

• [-] NVDA Amodei, Altman and Musk call for slowing AI development; AI stocks sell off Monday — Anthropic's CEO proposed slowing the pace of capability gains on control-loss and misuse risk, echoed by Altman and Musk; Monday's reaction: NVDA -3.4%, MRVL -7.3%, MU -5.3%, TSM ADR -3.5% while cybersecurity names rallied. source
• [n] OPENAI Altman rules out an OpenAI IPO this year — Altman said an IPO now would come at an ill-advised moment given AI safety concerns, calling extinction risk unacceptable; SoftBank's funding support continues with an upsized $11.9B loan reported Sep 14. source

2026-09-11

• [-] MACRO August CPI 0.4% m/m, 3.4% y/y; core 0.3% beats forecasts — Gasoline +3.9% on the month drove over a third of the increase (energy +16.3% y/y) and core rose a faster-than-forecast 0.3% m/m. The print locked in Wednesday's hike, with futures moving to ~90% within days. source
• [+] SKHY SK hynix revises wage deal - cash share of bonuses up to 50%, union vote Sep 15-16 — The revised offer answers the stock-heavy bonus objection that sank the first deal by 25 votes; members vote company-wide Sep 15-16. With DRAM inventories reported under 10 days and BofA lifting its target to $268, the ADR is +7.7% since Aug 27 despite Monday's 7.6% selloff hit. A yes vote removes the last company-specific gate. source

2026-09-10

• [+] TSM TSMC August revenue a record NT$514.8B, up 53.3% — First month ever above NT$500B and the fourth straight monthly record, confirming AI chip demand ran hot through August; Taipei shares sit ~5% under their all-time high. source
• [+] META Muse AI agent hits No. 2 on the US App Store two days after launch — Meta launched Muse, a personal AI agent that can act across apps (email, payments, travel), on Sep 8; by Sep 10 it ranked No. 2 on iOS despite modest absolute downloads (~83k US iOS). The stock re-rated ~16% over the gap on agent optimism. source
• [-] BABA Anthropic details Alibaba distillation campaign: 151M Claude exchanges via 3,500 accounts — Anthropic alleges Alibaba harvested Claude's reasoning, coding and agentic outputs at up to ~3M exchanges a day (May-July) to train its own models; Beijing rejected the allegations Sep 12. Adds legal and US-China friction risk while class actions (Oct 5 lead-plaintiff deadline) already circle. source

2026-09-09

• [n] AAPL Apple unveils iPhone Duo, its first foldable, at $1,999 - Ternus's first event as CEO — 7.6-inch inner / 5.4-inch outer displays, A20 Pro chip, titanium, preorders Oct 16 and availability Oct 23; iPhone 18 Pro, Watch Series 12 with a new Health Sensing System and AirPods 5 rounded out the event. Some analysts see the Duo reaching 10% of iPhone sales; KeyBanc cautioned on expectations and iPhone 18 delivery lead times are tracking below iPhone 17's. AAPL steady near records, $333.08 on Sep 14. source

2026-09-08

• [+] AMZN Qualcomm and Amazon strike multi-generational AI data-center infrastructure deal — Qualcomm announced a multi-generational product collaboration with Amazon to build next-generation AI data-center infrastructure, diversifying AWS's silicon supply beyond Nvidia and its own Trainium line. source
• [+] ENPH Enphase pushes IQ solid-state transformer for AI data centers, built in Texas — Enphase said power modules for its IQ solid-state transformer are now being built in Texas and showcased the product at AI Infra Summit on Sep 14 - a pivot of its power-electronics IP toward data-center demand while residential stays soft. source

2026-09-04

• [n] MACRO August payrolls +162k, well above forecasts; unemployment steady at 4.1% — Payrolls rose 162,000 versus a 31,000 average over the prior 12 months, with June and July revised up a combined 55k and wages +0.3% m/m (+3.1% y/y). The reacceleration removed the labour-market case against a hike. source
• [+] BE Bloom Energy joins the S&P 500 effective Sep 21 — S&P DJI adds Bloom, Illumina and Everpure at the September rebalance. The stock jumped ~11% on inclusion bets and Mizuho raised its target to $351 from $242; BE closed Sep 14 at $257.05, +16% vs Aug 27 - the list's best performer over the gap. Astera Labs, the other rumoured candidate, missed out. source

2026-09-03

• [+] NVDA Nvidia confirms $12.9B acquisition of Hugging Face — The previously reported deal is now official, one of Nvidia's largest acquisitions ever, putting the dominant GPU maker in control of the main open-model distribution platform. source
• [+] NET Cloudflare partners with OpenAI on AI-driven vulnerability remediation; Cursor agents move onto its Sandboxes — New Vulnerability Discovery and Remediation service built on GPT-5.6 Cyber models (Sep 3), a day after Cursor Cloud Agents began running on Cloudflare Sandboxes; Adaptive Intelligence bot defense launched Aug 31. On Sep 14 NET rose 7.8% to $330.36 - near its 52-week high - as security rallied while AI hardware sold off. source

2026-09-02

• [+] GOOGL Judge Brinkema spares Google an ad-tech breakup, orders behavioral remedies — The court rejected the DOJ's demand to divest AdX and DFP, instead ordering real-time bid transparency, an end to Unified Pricing Rules and first/last-look privileges. Third straight US structural remedy Google has avoided; the last big domestic overhang is gone. source
• [-] AVGO Broadcom Q3: revenue $29.6B +86%, AI revenue $16.7B +221% - but the Q4 guide was sold — Beat on top and bottom (non-GAAP EPS $3.32, +96%); Q4 guided to ~$34.8B (+93%) with AI ~$21.7B, read as light against buyside hopes - shares fell over 6% after hours and closed Sep 14 at $344.72 (-6% vs Aug 27). Hock Tan on CNBC Sep 14: AI revenue targets haven't changed. source

2026-09-01

• [+] NFLX GTA VI preview becomes Netflix's most-watched program at 31.1M views — The 27-minute exclusive ranked #1 in 87 of 93 tracked countries and beat every Netflix original that week; a later report credited it with 100k+ US sign-ups in its six-hour exclusivity window. source
• [+] FIGR Figure completes Kiavi acquisition — Figure closed its acquisition of Kiavi, expanding its blockchain-native capital marketplace; it followed on Sep 10 with a Sierra deal putting AI agents on abandoned home-equity applications. The August slide bottomed at $33.19 on Sep 2. source
• [-] CRDO Credo's record Q1 ($479M, +115% YoY) met margin worries; stock down ~37% since Aug 27 — GAAP net income $129.4M, non-GAAP EPS $1.20, gross margin 68%; Q2 guide $525-535M implies >85% YoY growth but the softer margin guide triggered a ~20% one-day drop and analyst cuts, compounded by the Sep 14 AI selloff. Closed $150.09; consensus still ~$281. Demand base unchanged - a valuation reset, not a demand break. source

2026-08-31

• [-] CURSOR OpenAI cuts off Cursor's model access after the SpaceX acquisition closes — With Anysphere's $60B all-stock sale to SpaceX completed in mid-August, OpenAI severed Cursor's access to its frontier models - a reminder that application-layer tools depend on model providers' goodwill. Cursor has since leaned on alternatives (Claude, open models), and its agents now run on Cloudflare Sandboxes per the Sep 2 partnership. source

2026-08-28

• [-] MACRO Warsh's Jackson Hole speech puts hikes on the table — In his first Jackson Hole keynote, 'In Our Time', Warsh said inflation above 2% is the Fed's 'predominant focus' and he must see underlying inflation moving to target 'clearly and at sufficient speed', while advocating a quieter Fed with less forward guidance. source
• [n] STRIPE Advent and Stripe abandon $50B+ pursuit of PayPal — The consortium walked away after months of talks (PayPal fell 16% premarket); Stripe is instead closing its ~$7B OpenRouter acquisition, a push into AI model routing and usage-based billing. source
• [-] 1211.HK BYD H1: revenue RMB 344.8B, net profit -20% on the China price war; Q2 profit +30%, first rise in a year — Overseas revenue topped 50% of the total for the first time and exports grew ~70%, but domestic demand and competition dragged H1 profit down ~20% and Q2's RMB 8.2B (+30% YoY) missed estimates; shares slipped on the print. Management is leaning on exports: 2.5M overseas sales targeted for 2027 and European truck production announced Sep 14. 1211.HK around HK$80 vs HK$96 in late August. source

2026-08-27

• [+] MACRO Nvidia +7% in cash trade, chip rally narrow: MRVL +5.7%, AVGO +3.2%, MU -1.1% — NVDA traded $224-225 (+7%) an hour into Thursday's session on the $108B Q3 guide and ~70% FY28 growth call; SOX +1.8%, Nasdaq 100 +1.2%, S&P 500 +0.5%, Dow +0.2%, Russell 2000 flat. Memory and AMD lagged, so this is a Nvidia-and-custom-silicon move, not a broad one. source
• [n] MACRO Jobless claims 203k vs 208k expected, prior 207k — Initial claims for the week to Aug 22 fell to 203,000 against a 208,000 consensus, another sign the labour market is not loosening; with July PCE at 3.7% it keeps the hike case alive going into Warsh's speech. source
• [-] MACRO Jackson Hole opens with Schmid hinting at hikes; September hike priced at 31% — KC Fed's Schmid said he does not know what current policy is restricting and inflation is 'still stubborn'; Boston's Collins said Wednesday tightening 'soon' would be appropriate without progress. Fed funds futures show a 68.6% hold / 31.4% hike for Sept 16 and a hike favoured by December; Warsh is expected to give no detailed forward guidance. source
• [-] MACRO US weighs new semiconductor tariffs covering servers, laptops and consoles (Politico) — The administration is considering sweeping chip tariffs extended to products containing semiconductors, with a phase-in and relief tied to investment in US fabs per Lutnick; no rate given and the White House called the reporting speculation. A cost risk for AI server builds if it lands. source
• [+] NVDA Raymond James lifts Nvidia target to $515 from $352 as the Street reprices after the print — Raymond James kept Strong Buy and cited the FY28 70% outlook and $26B of Q2 shareholder returns; Truist ($346), Wedbush ($345), RBC ($330), Stifel ($315), UBS ($300) and Needham ($300) also raised. Stock +7.3% intraday at $224.88. source
• [n] NVDA Nvidia reportedly agrees to buy Hugging Face for $12.9B — The Information reported the deal Aug 26 and Reuters followed; neither company has confirmed and Nvidia declined comment. Price implies ~86x an estimated $150M ARR and would move Nvidia into model distribution. source
• [n] MRVL Marvell pre-print: JPMorgan looks for a Q3 guide near $3.1B vs the $3.03B bar — Kalshi puts 83% odds on an EPS beat of $0.93; focus is custom XPU pipeline (50+ opportunities, $75B before the Google deal), Trainium ramp and Celestial AI optics. Stock faded to +0.4% intraday from a +4% premarket. source
• [n] MU Micron locked in ~$100B of floor-priced memory contracts during the shortage — Trefis: 16 take-or-pay deals cover ~20% of DRAM and a third of NAND volume over ~5 years, 14 with price floors and $22B of customer deposits, but prices on existing products are capped at CQ2-2026 levels. MU -1.1% intraday after a +3% open. source
• [+] STRIPE Stripe to acquire startup-legal platform Clerky — Clerky says it has agreed to join Stripe with the same team and focus; terms undisclosed. Clerky startups account for 23% of Silicon Valley seed and pre-seed financings and have raised over $140B. source
• [+] OPENAI Georgia PSC approves 3,200MW Georgia Power contract for OpenAI's Effingham County data center — OpenAI fully funds the infrastructure and commits up to 1,000MW of flexible demand response; Georgia Power says the portfolio saves ~$950M a year by 2029, about $15 a month for a typical household. source
• [+] META Citi: teen settlement less painful than feared, Buy $800; KeyBanc $780, UBS $715, Truist cuts to $763 — Citi expects a ~$10B Q3 accrual on the $18B deal with 52 AGs, far below the $200B-$1.4T once contemplated, with teens under 1% of revenue and average teen Instagram use ~1 hour vs the new 2-hour cap. New Mexico's appeal and ~1,200 school-district cases remain. source
• [-] BABA Alibaba ADR -3.3% in morning trade after HK$80B placing closes; Baird and Citi trim targets, JPMorgan lifts to $210 — 710M shares were issued at HK$112.70; Baird cut its target to $160 from $164 and Citi to $190 from $192, while JPMorgan raised to $210 Overweight. The move is company-driven with the S&P up and Nasdaq +1%; 9988.HK closed HK$115.50 (-0.9%). source
• [+] BABA Alibaba Cloud launches two Brazil data centres, its second Latin American market — The sites serve local enterprises with cloud and agentic AI services and take Alibaba Cloud to 106 availability zones in 31 regions, following Mexico in 2025 and under the US$56B AI infrastructure pledge. source
• [+] GOOGL Wolfe names Alphabet a top 2027 pick: Outperform, $460 target, 2027 revenue raised 10% to $595B — Shweta Khajuria lifted 2027 EPS to $15.89 and models Google Cloud revenue +125% y/y in Q3 vs 87% consensus after Q2's +82% and 35.6% operating margin. source
• [-] GOOGL OSHA data: 16 Waymo test-driver injuries in 2024-25 as robotaxis scale, TechCrunch reports — Waymo contractor Transdev logged 5 injuries in 2024 and 11 in 2025 across SF, LA and Phoenix, mostly hard-braking sprains and whiplash with up to 175 days off; Zoox had up to 8. Waymo says safety of its team is paramount. source
• [+] ANTHROPIC Salesforce books $2.6B gain on its Anthropic stake; Claudeforce open beta in September — Salesforce Q2 revenue $11.35B (+11%), FY27 guide raised to $46.1-46.4B, net income $3.53B helped by a $2.6B mark-up on its Anthropic position; shares +21% Thursday. Claudeforce puts Salesforce data and 37 prebuilt sales skills inside Claude (pilot now, open beta September). Salesforce is expected to spend ~$300M on Anthropic tokens in 2026. source
• [+] NET Cloudflare +6% as software re-rates on Salesforce, CrowdStrike and Okta beats — CrowdStrike +17% (record $333M net new ARR, FY27 guide raised), Salesforce +21%, Okta +21%, Palo Alto +10%; Cloudflare rode the rotation to $302.87 at 10:37 ET, above its after-hours level. No Cloudflare-specific news; the next company catalyst is the Sep 9 Goldman fireside. source
• [+] SKHY SK hynix breaks ground on $4B+ Indiana HBM packaging and R&D site — Purdue Research Park facility with a next-gen HBM packaging line; cleanroom from H2 2028, ~7,000 direct and indirect jobs, $458M CHIPS grant plus up to $500M loans. Puts capacity near Nvidia, Microsoft and Google; SK hynix holds ~58% of HBM revenue. Seoul close KRW 1,730,000 (+2.5%) after a +5.9% intraday high faded. source
• [+] ENR US order bars Chinese-linked grid equipment above 69 kV; Citi calls it a net positive for Siemens Energy — Executive order blocks import and installation of transformers, breakers, inverters, UPS, generators, turbines, battery storage and control systems from covered foreign entities (effectively China). Citi sees less competition and pricing room for Siemens Energy (moderate net positive) and Wartsila storage; Siemens' Charlotte plant delivers large transformers only from late 2027. Also supportive for GE Vernova as US incumbent. source
• [n] AAPL Apple trims ~100 Siri and machine-learning roles as it rebuilds the assistant; stock flat at $313 — Over 200 cuts across Vision Pro and Siri-related software, about 100 in the legacy Siri/ML teams, with the new on-device architecture kept. Apple sat out the Nvidia rally (-0.15% at 10:39 ET) ahead of the Sep 9 event; IDC expects 10M+ foldable iPhones in year one. The chip-tariff report is a margin risk on top of Cook's memory-cost warning. source
• [n] 1211.HK BYD -1.5% to HK$91.25 into Friday's interim results; flash-charging network hits 10,000 stations — Shares closed HK$91.25 on Aug 27 ahead of the H1 report on Aug 28. BYD's 1.5 MW flash-charging network reaches 10,000 stations on Aug 28 (from 5,000 in April; 20,000 targeted by year-end) and the Sealion 08 launches Sep 2. No verified sell-side consensus for H1 revenue or profit was found; the debate is record exports versus domestic price-war margins. source
• [+] MU Asia chip read-through: SK hynix +3.3%, Samsung +2.4%, Kioxia +5.9%, TSMC +0.6%; Micron +3.4% overnight — Memory names led Asia on Thursday after Nvidia said memory pricing is extreme and headed higher into next year: SK hynix KRW 1,743,000 (+3.3%, up to +4.4% intraday), Samsung KRW 267,750 (+2.4%), Kioxia +5.9%, Kospi +1.8-2%; TSMC NT$2,430 (+0.6%), Advantest -2.2%, Nikkei -0.2%. US overnight: MU $970.20 (+3.4%), MRVL +3.9%, CRDO +3.6%, ALAB +2.8%, AVGO +1.3%, TSM ADR +1.5%, SMCI +2.6%. source
• [+] MACRO US futures rise after Nvidia: S&P +0.5%, Nasdaq 100 +0.9%, Dow +0.3% — Wednesday's cash close was flat (S&P 500 -0.02%, Nasdaq -0.1%, Dow -0.2%) after July PCE printed 3.7% y/y vs 3.6% expected. After the close Nvidia moved from -3% to about +5% on a ~70% FY28 growth guide, Salesforce +13% and CrowdStrike +10% on results, HP -9%. source
• [n] MACRO AU Q2 capex -3.6% vs +0.8% expected, but July household spending +1.1% keeps RBA hike calls alive — Equipment spending fell 8.9% q/q while buildings rose 2.1%; the ABS 2026-27 plan (Estimate 3) is $200.7B, 15.5% above the prior estimate. Household spending rose 1.1% m/m (7.0% y/y) vs 0.4% expected, and CBA joined ANZ, Goldman, Citi and UBS in forecasting a November RBA hike; ASX 200 -0.8% to 9,056, AUD/USD 0.7184. source
• [n] MACRO Oil down a fourth session on Iran-Oman Hormuz revenue-sharing talks; Brent $86-87, WTI ~$81.70 — A senior Iranian source says Iran and Oman are finalising how to share control of the strait and its revenues, and Qatar's PM plans a visit to Tehran; Hormuz flows are still about a quarter of pre-war levels and Iran says the strait stays shut until US ceasefire terms are met. US distillate stocks fell 2.2M bbl to 103.4M, the lowest on record for the week. source
• [+] SKHY SK hynix +5% after hours and +3% in Seoul as Nvidia guides Q3 to ~$108B — Nvidia's Q2: revenue $96.2B (+106%), data center $89B (+117%), Q3 guide $108B vs $104.2B consensus, FY28 growth ~70%, no China data-center sales assumed, memory prices cited as rising across the supply chain. SKHY ADR closed -1.0% at $158.02, then $165.92 (+5.0%) after hours; Seoul shares +3.3% at KRW 1,743,000 by 11:22 KST (high +5.9%), Samsung +2-3%, Kioxia +5.9%, Kospi +1.8-2%. BofA started the ADR at Buy, modelling ~KRW 100T of shareholder returns. Wage talks with the union still unsettled. source

2026-08-26

• [+] ANTHROPIC Anthropic signs $45B, six-year compute lease with Nscale in West Virginia — TechCrunch (citing a source; Bloomberg first reported) says Anthropic will rent $45B of capacity over six years at Nscale's West Virginia campus, built on Nvidia Vera Rubin systems and live from late 2027; other outlets put it at ~460 MW. It follows $10B with Volta, $5B with AMD, ~$1.25B/month from SpaceX and a 5 GW Amazon expansion in eight months. Neither company has formally confirmed. source
• [+] NVDA Nvidia Q2 FY27: revenue $96.2B (+106%) vs $92.2B consensus, data center $89.0B (+117%), Q3 guide $108B — Revenue $96.2B, up 18% q/q and 106% y/y, against the $91B guide and $92.2B consensus; data center $89.0B (+117%), edge computing $7.2B (+27%). GAAP and non-GAAP gross margin 75.0%, non-GAAP EPS $2.22 vs $2.08 expected, GAAP EPS $2.46 including $7.8B of investment gains; $26.0B returned in the quarter with $99B of buyback authorization left. Q3 outlook $108B +/-2% at 74.0% gross margin, assuming no data-center compute revenue from China. source
• [+] NVDA Call: FY28 growth ~70% and supply-constrained, Q4 gross margin to trough at 71-72% on memory costs, Vera Rubin ~20% of Q3 data center — CFO Kress gave a preliminary FY28 revenue growth expectation of about 70% (Street ~45%) and called it supply-constrained, with Huang saying demand is growing ~100% and the whole supply chain (wafers, memory, power, data-center infrastructure) is challenged. Gross margin goes 74% in Q3, bottoms at 71-72% in Q4 on extreme memory pricing, then 72-73% in FY28 as price increases land in Q1; Vera Rubin entered production in August with orders from every major hyperscaler and should be ~20% of Q3 data-center revenue. Networking was a record (+18% q/q, Spectrum-X 2.6x y/y), sovereign AI +35% q/q and >3x y/y, China H200 shipments <1% of data-center revenue, top-5 hyperscaler capex cited at ~$800B in 2026 and $1.3T in 2027 with cloud backlog over $2T; on OpenAI's chip Huang said most XPUs are inference-specific to one cloud while Nvidia is a full AI-factory platform. source
• [n] NVDA Stock +4.7% after hours to $219.53 after a flat first reaction; Seaport keeps Sell on 'sold out', UBS bullish, DSO now 60 days — NVDA closed $209.66 (-1.6%), slipped ~0.5% on the release, then rose to $219.53 (+4.7%) by 8pm ET and $221.32 overnight once the call laid out the FY28 guide; Nasdaq futures +0.9%. Seaport's Jay Goldberg (Sell) argued a sold-out company has no upside lever this year while UBS's Tim Arcuri said the print raises confidence in 2027-28; consensus target is $304.67 with 29 Buys and no post-print target changes yet. The circular-financing questions got a 'we see it differently' from Kress: equity stakes ~$99B, nearly $50B committed to frontier labs that could be ~25% of revenue next year, receivables $63.1B with DSO up to 60 days from 45, and $108.5B of revenue guarantees ($105B tied to OpenAI). source

[+] positive, [-] negative, [n] neutral

Research log

• 2026-09-15-0307
• 2026-08-27-1440
• 2026-08-27-0251
• 2026-08-26-1450
• 2026-08-26-0253
• 2026-08-25-2238
• 2026-08-25-2049
• 2026-08-25-1455
• 2026-08-25-0849
• 2026-08-25-0327
• 2026-08-25-0256
• 2026-08-25-0254
• 2026-08-24-2245
• 2026-08-24-2224

Nothing here is financial advice. Holdings and opinions are my own; the "agent" sections are written by an automated research skill and may be wrong. Built 2026-09-15 03:07 UTC.