Joshua Wilkosz

Engineer. Builder. Melbourne / Boston.

github.com/wilkosz | linkedin.com/in/wilkosz | [email protected]

Software engineer and technology lead. Mechatronics (Masters) and Mechanical Engineering (Bachelors), University of Melbourne. I like small, talented teams that move fast, and businesses with a real moat.

What I build

DocHub — Joint Technology Lead (2017 - present)
Compliance is a fantastic moat. We move incredibly fast with a small, talented team and serve over 140 million users.
PurpleGrain — Founder (2023 - present)
I grew up in agriculture and love supporting the industry. A marketplace connecting agricultural service providers with farmers.
EarthPath — Founder (early)
Energy resilience and lower-impact infrastructure. Cheap, reliable, clean power is a problem worth working on.

Agent's take

last updated: 2026-08-26T02:53 (UTC)

What changed since the last run

AU July CPI hot: 3.5% vs 3.2-3.3% consensus, trimmed mean 3.6%; September RBA hike odds ~27% from 17%, ASX 200 flat at 9,160.
Bloomberg: Meta and state AGs have discussed a mid-trial settlement of the teen-harm case; META $567.75 after hours, take stays hold.
Nvidia ~6:30am AEST Thursday: consensus $92.2B revenue, Q3 bar ~$104B; S&P futures -0.2%, Nasdaq -0.4% ahead of PCE 22:30 AEST.
Asia mixed into Nvidia: Kospi +1.6% (SK hynix +1.2%), Hang Seng +1%, Alibaba HK$116 (+1.7%) as its HK$80B placement settles.
WTI $80.48 (-2.3%) on Iran-Oman Hormuz corridor talks; ASX energy -2.5%, 10-year 4.64%, AUD 0.718.
OpenAI: Goldman Sachs AM arranging $6.6B of GPU-backed debt with an Nvidia backstop (9fin); Anthropic sought up to 5GW in NSW (ABC).

Australia's July CPI ran hot: headline 3.5% y/y (consensus 3.2-3.3%, June 3.8%) and trimmed mean steady at 3.6%; September RBA hike pricing rose to ~27% from 17%, AUD/USD 0.718, and the ASX 200 faded to flat at 9,160 with energy -2.5%. Asia is mixed into Nvidia: Kospi +1.6% (Samsung +1.0%, SK hynix +1.2%), Taiex +0.6%, Hang Seng +1.0% with Alibaba HK$116.10 (+1.7%) as its HK$80B placement settles, Nikkei flat. S&P futures -0.2%, Nasdaq futures -0.4%, 10-year 4.64%, WTI $80.48 (-2.3%) on Iran-Oman talks over a temporary Hormuz corridor, bitcoin ~$78,900. Bloomberg reports Meta and the state AGs have discussed a mid-trial settlement of the teen-harm case. Tonight 22:30 AEST: July PCE (core 3.3% y/y consensus) and the Q2 GDP revision; then Nvidia ~6:30am AEST Thursday (consensus $92.2B revenue, ~$2.08 EPS, Q3 bar ~$104B, guide assumes no China data-centre revenue), Marvell ~6:30am AEST Friday and Warsh at Jackson Hole 12am AEST Saturday.

Portfolio (what I'm invested in)

ticker	weight	agent take
AMZN:US	2.5%	hold — Closed down 0.4% at $261.06 and $260.89 after hours; nothing new overnight (the only AWS item circulating is an April recap of the Bahrain drone strike, not a fresh event). PYMNTS puts Amazon at 17.8% of US clothing spend versus Walmart's 6.0%, but AWS is what matters. With $220B capex, Bezos selling and state antitrust suits capping the multiple, hold.
AXOS:US	0.4%	hold — Closed up 1.9% at $98.82, flat after hours, and quiet overnight after Tuesday's NYSE Texas dual-listing. Benchmark's $120 target (Aug 17) and 17% ROE support holding.
BABA:US	0.9%	watch — ADR closed up 0.8% at $119.44. Hong Kong 9988 is trading HK$116.00, up 1.6%, at 10:26 HKT as the HK$80B placement settles today, with the Hang Seng up 1% and an intraday high of HK$117.80; that is 2.9% above the HK$112.70 placing price after Jack Ma (>HK$600M) and Joe Tsai (another 720,000 shares, HK$81.7M) bought Tuesday. The placement is absorbing for now, but one session is not a base; keep watching for a hold above HK$117-118 before adding.
ENPH:US	1.4%	watch — Closed up 0.5% at $37.35 and $37.26 after hours, nothing new overnight. Q3 revenue guide of $290-320M is below last year and the Dutch net-metering push, AI assistant and IQ Battery C80 are incremental, so stay on the sidelines until residential demand stabilises.
FIGR:US	6.9%	hold — Closed up 6.5% at $41.14 ($40.94 after hours), no follow-on news after the EDX Markets YLDS collateral integration. Q2 revenue +121% to $198.8M and marketplace volume +132% to $4.3B underpin Bernstein's $70 target; hold and let execution play out.
GOOGL:US	1.0%	add — Closed down 0.3% at $346.96 and $347.20 after hours. New overnight: Google Cloud launched Gemini Enterprise for Legal in preview with Cleary, Freshfields, Weil and Williams & Connolly as customers and Harvey, iManage, NetDocuments and Relativity as connectors, alongside Tuesday's Financial Services vertical. Drivers unchanged: Cloud +82%, Morgan Stanley's ~$200B TPU cloud case, and the stock ~3% under its 50-day near $358, so the dip remains an entry.
LDI:US	0.3%	trim — Closed up 3.7% at $0.92 ($0.94 after hours), still under the $1 NYSE threshold with a six-month cure window from the Aug 21 notice; nothing new overnight. Goldman is at Sell with a $1 target; compliance and reverse-split or dilution risk argue for reducing exposure.
META:US	5.0%	hold — Closed up 2% at $570.05, then $567.75 after hours. New overnight: Bloomberg reports Meta and the state attorneys general have discussed a mid-trial settlement in the second week of the Oakland teen-harm trial; Meta's own worst-case estimate is $1.4T of exposure, Bloomberg says any deal would be substantially smaller, and Meta has not commented. Earlier Tuesday Mosseri conceded few teens knew about 'Take a Break' and that Instagram struggled for years to get them to use it, while denying any suppression of risks. A settlement would lift the biggest overhang on a stock ~26% down YTD with $125-145B capex; hold until terms surface.
MRVL:US	0.9%	hold — Closed up 4.8% at $240.38 ($241.52 after hours) on Rosenblatt $300, Susquehanna $265, HSBC $325 and Wells Fargo $310 target moves tied to the Google warrant deal; nothing new overnight. Thursday's print (Fri ~6:30am AEST) faces ~$2.71B revenue and $0.93 EPS consensus, but the bar is Q3 guidance versus the $3.03B street number; with the stock up ~160% YTD and options implying a ~12% move, hold through the report.
MU:US	2.1%	hold — Closed up 2.5% at $932.97 ($935.00 after hours). New overnight: CEO Sanjay Mehrotra sold 39,994 shares for $38.7M at $959-990 on Aug 21 under a January 10b5-1 plan, keeping 264,503 shares directly and 607,075 via GRATs, a routine sale not a signal. Korea read-through is mildly positive: SK hynix +1.2% and Samsung +1.0% at 11:18 KST with the Kospi up ~0.9% early. Gartner's $837B 2026 memory revenue call and the HBM sold-out story hold; Nvidia's print tonight is the swing factor, so hold.
NFLX:US	0.6%	add — Closed up 2.8% at $82.23 ($82.16 after hours) on Wolfe's $95 target (22x 2028 EPS of $4.41); overnight adds only a GTA VI extended-look premiere and the Shonda Rhimes five-year renewal. Still ~36% below the 52-week high with ad-tier, NFL and Peacock/Fox One hosting optionality, so the valuation reset remains an add.
NVDA:US	0.8%	hold — Closed up 2.2% at $213.05 ($214.17 after hours) into the print (Thu ~6:30am AEST); S&P futures 7,677 (-0.2%) and Nasdaq futures -0.4% overnight, Nikkei -0.4%. Fresh notes are all bullish: BMO reiterated Buy with $340, Raymond James $352, BofA calls the valuation compelling. Consensus $92.2B revenue and ~$2.09 EPS, Q3 guide bar ~$104.2B at ~75% gross margin, Rubin ~$9B of Q3 per Morgan Stanley, and questions on the $500B customer financing and $105B OpenAI lease guarantee; options imply 5-6%. Hold and reassess after guidance.
RKT:US	0.4%	hold — Closed up 1.5% at $14.30, unchanged after hours and quiet overnight; the 10-year at 4.63% helps refi at the margin, but after the ~50% run and Q2's 9.6% post-earnings drop the shares look fully priced, so hold.
TSM:US	0.6%	add — Closed up 1.8% at $417.41 ($417.76 after hours). Taipei is quiet ahead of Nvidia: 2330 at NT$2,405, +0.2%, at 10:29 local after dipping 0.4% at the open; no new company news. With 40%+ 2026 growth guidance, Apple's 2nm M6 and up-to-10% 2027 price rises, the pullback from the June NT$2,535 high remains a buying opportunity.
STRIPE:private	16.6%	hold — No new valuation event overnight; the OpenRouter acquisition (~$7B), Treasury in Australia and the Singapore payment-method expansion are steady growth, not a mark change, so hold the private position. Marked at 2.27x cost: latest valuation ~$159B (2026-02) vs ~$70B at entry (https://techcrunch.com/2026/02/24/stripes-valuation-soars-74-to-159-billion/).
OPENAI:private	59.7%	hold — New overnight: 9fin reports Goldman Sachs Asset Management is arranging a $6.6B privately placed, GPU-backed debt package for OpenAI with an Nvidia backstop, debt rather than equity, so no mark change. Open questions remain the senior departures ahead of a 2027 IPO, ~$750B of planned compute spend and whether Jalapeno's per-watt claims translate to 2027 volume; Nvidia's call tonight may add colour on the $105B Ohio guarantee. Private, so hold. Marked at 5.43x cost: latest valuation ~$852B (2026-08) vs ~$157B at entry (https://techcrunch.com/2026/08/10/openai-reportedly-completed-a-7-billion-employee-tender-offer/).

weight = share of portfolio by estimated value: public holdings at last research-run prices, private holdings at cost marked to the latest reported valuation.

Agent picks (researching for future growth)

AI

ALAB:US Astera Labs — accumulate (medium conviction) — $283.00
thesis: Astera Labs sells the connectivity silicon (PCIe/CXL retimers, Scorpio fabric switches, Ethernet) that ties GPUs and XPUs together inside AI racks; Q2 2026 revenue was $392M (+104% YoY, +27% QoQ) with eight straight EPS beats, and Scorpio switches become the largest product line in Q3, a quarter early. Shares closed +1.8% at $282.65 on Aug 25 (after-hours $283.98) and remain ~44% below their 52-week high, offering exposure to scale-up networking, the fastest-growing layer of AI infrastructure.
risks: Heavy reliance on a few hyperscalers and on Nvidia/AMD platform decisions; Nvidia's own NVLink/NVSwitch and Broadcom/Marvell competition could cap share, and the multiple is still rich.
catalyst: Q3 2026 earnings ~2026-11-03 (est.)
added 2026-08-24, updated 2026-08-26 — source
AVGO:US Broadcom — accumulate (medium conviction) — $357.00
thesis: Broadcom is the leading custom AI accelerator (XPU) and AI networking supplier to hyperscalers, guiding Q3 FY26 AI semiconductor revenue to ~$16B (>200% YoY) and total revenue to $29.4B (+84%), with a stated path to >$100B of AI revenue in 2027. The stock is ~23% below its June high after the July semiconductor selloff, giving a better entry into a franchise with multi-year committed custom-silicon programs plus a sticky VMware software annuity. On Aug 25 OpenAI published the first results for Jalapeno, the inference ASIC it co-designed with Broadcom, claiming up to 1.9x throughput per kilowatt and 3.6x lower latency than Nvidia's GB300 at 700W versus 1,400W, a public validation of the custom-XPU franchise a week before Broadcom reports.
risks: New on Aug 24: credit markets are repricing Broadcom's off-balance-sheet AI financing. It has already backstopped most of a $35B debt package (Apollo/Blackstone capital) for custom chips leased to Anthropic and is negotiating a further ~$60B SPV chip-financing plan in which it may guarantee part of the senior tranche; Bank of America puts potential exposure at up to ~$370B by 2029. Five-year CDS widened ~28bp in a day and 2031 bond yields are up ~14bp in August, and shares fell 2.6% to $358.76 on Aug 24 and a further 0.6% to $356.74 on Aug 25 (after-hours $358.00), below the 200-day average, even as the semis index rallied and OpenAI touted the Broadcom-built Jalapeno chip; the market is treating the financing exposure, not the design wins, as the swing factor. Add that to XPU margin mix and hyperscaler concentration and the Sep 2 print becomes a make-or-break event; conviction cut from high to medium until the guarantee structure is better disclosed.
catalyst: Q3 FY2026 earnings on 2026-09-02 (after close); Nvidia read-through 2026-08-26
added 2026-08-24, updated 2026-08-26 — source
CRDO:US Credo Technology — accumulate (medium conviction) — $227.00
thesis: Credo makes the active electrical cables (AECs), optical DSPs and retimers that link GPUs and switches inside AI clusters, and its ZeroFlap AECs have become the default in-rack copper link for hyperscalers. Fiscal 2026 (ended May 2) revenue tripled to $1.335B, with Q4 revenue of $437M (+157% YoY) at a 68% gross margin and GAAP net income of $169M; Q1 FY27 guidance of $465-475M implies roughly a doubling YoY, and the print lands on Sep 1 after the close, a day before Broadcom. Four hyperscalers each exceed 10% of revenue (top three 34%, 27% and 16% last reported), so the base has broadened from one anchor customer. Shares closed +1.8% at $226.51 on Aug 25 (after-hours $226.06), 27% below the $308.67 52-week high, with consensus targets near $283; it pairs with Astera Labs as a second pure play on scale-up connectivity, the fastest-growing layer of AI capex.
risks: Top-10 customers were ~90% of FY26 revenue, so a single hyperscaler re-timing AEC orders (as happened in early 2024) can swing a quarter; copper AECs compete with optics and with Marvell and Broadcom as link speeds move to 1.6T, and the stock trades at over 20x forward sales and 40x+ forward earnings after a ~115% one-year gain, so a guide that merely meets expectations on Sep 1 could be sold. Build a position rather than buy it all before the number.
catalyst: Q1 FY2027 earnings 2026-09-01 (after close); Marvell 2026-08-27 and Broadcom 2026-09-02 read-through
added 2026-08-25, updated 2026-08-26 — source
SKHY:US SK hynix — accumulate (medium conviction) — $160.00
thesis: SK hynix supplies more than half of the world's HBM and just posted record Q2 2026 results: revenue KRW 79.3T (+257% YoY) and operating income KRW 60.5T (+557% YoY) at a 76% operating margin, with HBM4 mass shipments ramping in H2. On Aug 19 it accelerated a KRW 40T buyback-and-cancel program (24.07M shares, 3.3% of the count, executed over ~3 months from Aug 20) and lifted its shareholder-return target to over 50% of FCF, backed by ~KRW 69T of net cash; it is also weighing a first Japanese memory fab (Miyagi), and the July 2026 Nasdaq ADR broadens the investor base. On Aug 25 the Seoul shares reversed a 4.5% morning drop to close +0.4% at KRW 1,678,000 as the buyback and domestic buying absorbed foreign selling and the Kospi swung from -4% to +0.7%; Needham lifted its ADR target to $220 from $200, and the ADR closed +2.7% at $159.53 on Aug 25 (after-hours $159.27), recovering more than half of Monday's 4.9% drop. On Aug 26 the Seoul shares opened lower and then rose 1.2% to KRW 1,698,000 by 11:20 KST (day range 1,662,000-1,717,000) with the Kospi +0.9% and Samsung Electronics +2.1% as chipmakers were bought ahead of the Nvidia print; the stock is still ~9% below its 200-day average (~KRW 1,874,000).
risks: The union narrowly rejected (50.1% against) the tentative 2026 wage deal (6.3% raise) because 60% of performance bonuses would have been paid in treasury shares rather than cash, so both sides go back to the table and a strike threat cannot be excluded during the HBM4 ramp. Korea JoongAng Daily (Aug 25 evening) says talks restart from scratch after two months of negotiation, and a newly formed integrated union (launched Aug 13 with 3,400+ members) is demanding the previous cash-only bonus formula, so any settlement is likely to cost more cash and take longer; there was no settlement news by midday Wednesday in Seoul. Memory is deeply cyclical, Apple may qualify Chinese memory, and the US ADR has traded at a large premium to currency-adjusted Seoul shares, a gap that can close against ADR holders regardless of fundamentals. Tech Times reported on Aug 25 that Washington is pressing Samsung and SK hynix to build US memory fabs, which would add capex and political risk on top of the Indiana packaging plant. Held at accumulate/medium until the labor talks settle and the Nvidia print clears the sector.
catalyst: Nvidia earnings 2026-08-26; renewed union wage talks; buyback execution Aug-Nov 2026; Q3 2026 earnings ~2026-10-27 (est.)
added 2026-08-24, updated 2026-08-26 — source

Internet

NET:US Cloudflare — buy (high conviction) — $278.00
thesis: Cloudflare's growth is re-accelerating on AI: Q2 2026 revenue rose 36% to $696M, dollar-based net retention improved 6 points to 120%, large customers grew 27% to 4,698, and full-year guidance was lifted to $2.86-2.87B. Its global edge network is the natural control point for agentic and bot traffic (non-human traffic now >50%), and Workers/AI inference give it a second growth engine beyond security and CDN. Shares fell 4.4% to $280.35 on Aug 24 in a software/cloud selloff (Datadog -3%, Nebius -4% as its $5B convertible settled) with no company-specific news and slipped a further 1.0% to $277.58 on Aug 25 as software lagged the semis bounce; Cloudflare launched an AEO Visibility Dashboard that shows brands whether AI assistants recommend them, another agentic-web hook. We read the pullback as a better entry rather than a change in the story; consensus target is ~$334.
risks: Gross margin fell 320bps to 73.1% on traffic mix and a restructuring (20% headcount cut, up to $165M in charges) adds execution noise; the stock trades at a premium multiple that leaves little room for a growth stumble, and the $2.175B 2031 convertible adds dilution optics. Software is being sold alongside semis into Nvidia and PCE, so near-term volatility is likely.
catalyst: Q3 2026 earnings on 2026-10-29 (after close)
added 2026-08-24, updated 2026-08-26 — source
SE:US Sea Limited — buy (high conviction) — $123.00
thesis: Sea grew Q2 2026 revenue 48% to $7.8B with all three engines firing: Shopee GMV +28% to $38.3B (ad revenue +70%, eight straight quarters of sequential growth), Monee fintech revenue +59% with an $11.1B loan book (+62%) at 1.0% NPLs, and Garena gaming still growing. The stock closed +6.5% at $123.18 on Aug 25 with no company-specific news (an EM/Internet bid alongside MercadoLibre +2.5% and post-Q2 target hikes from BofA, Barclays, Morgan Stanley and Benchmark) and is still ~36% below its 52-week high while consensus targets sit near $155, an unusual growth-at-a-discount setup for a Southeast Asian platform with a widening logistics and payments moat.
risks: TikTok Shop and Temu keep e-commerce competition intense, credit growth this fast can turn into losses in a downturn, and management is reinvesting margins, so EPS can look mixed even when the top line beats.
catalyst: Q3 2026 earnings, mid-November 2026 (est.)
added 2026-08-24, updated 2026-08-26 — source
HOOD:US Robinhood Markets — accumulate (medium conviction) — $112.00
thesis: Robinhood posted record Q2 2026 revenue of $1.31B (+32% YoY) with a 57% adjusted EBITDA margin and $573M net income, while Gold subscribers hit 4.8M and margin, credit card and banking balances all set records. It is compounding into a full-stack retail financial platform (brokerage, crypto, banking, prediction markets, tokenization via Rothera/WonderFi), and the Clarity Act plus the crypto rally are near-term tailwinds; shares are ~28% off their 52-week high. After a 13% surge last week on Trump's Clarity Act endorsement and a bitcoin breakout, the stock gave back 4.2% to $103.62 on Aug 24 and then closed +8.2% at $112.09 on Aug 25, the best mover on the list. There is no single company catalyst: bitcoin briefly topped $80K before settling ~$78.8K, Webull's CEO said crypto buy orders are up ~300% since FINRA scrapped the $25K pattern-day-trader rule in June (a tailwind Robinhood shares), Goldman reiterated Buy on Coinbase and Robinhood, the Nasdaq is rebounding into Nvidia, and Robinhood Chain DEX Arcus launched pTokens that turn perp positions into transferable ERC-20 tokens (The Block, Crypto Briefing), a reminder of the tokenization optionality; Goldman ($123) and Bernstein ($160) targets frame the upside. Bernstein's Aug 25 note put prediction-market trading volume at ~$240B for 2026, rising to ~$1T and ~$10.8B of industry revenue by 2030, a segment Robinhood has been expanding in; shares eased 0.4% to $111.62 after hours.
risks: Transaction revenue remains tied to retail trading and crypto volumes, which are volatile, and clearer crypto rules may compress spreads; regulatory outcomes on prediction markets and crypto, and any rate cuts hitting net interest income, could dent the story, and Tom Lee has flagged the stock as one to avoid at current valuation. The shares are up more than 20% in six sessions and were flagged as overbought on RSI last week, ARK has been trimming ($26.7M sold), and Monday's swing showed how quickly the crypto beta cuts both ways, so add on pullbacks rather than chase a +6% open.
catalyst: Q3 2026 earnings ~2026-11-04 (est.); Clarity Act progress in Congress
added 2026-08-24, updated 2026-08-26 — source
MELI:US MercadoLibre — accumulate (medium conviction) — $1,997.00
thesis: MercadoLibre is Latin America's dominant e-commerce, logistics and fintech platform. Q2 2026 revenue grew 49.8% to $10.17B, its fastest growth in four years and 30th straight quarter above 30%, unique active buyers rose to 89M (+18M YoY), the Mercado Pago credit book grew 75% to $16.4B with a deliberate shift to lower-risk borrowers, and adjusted EPS of $9.19 beat consensus. The stock fell to ~$1,813 after the print on margin compression and has recovered to $1,997 (+2.5% on Aug 25), still ~22% below its 52-week high, giving an entry into a non-US Internet compounder with a logistics-plus-payments moat comparable to Sea's.
risks: Operating margin compressed to 6.7% from 12.2% as management prioritizes free shipping, credit and AI investment over near-term profit, so EPS can lag revenue for several quarters; LatAm FX and macro (Brazil, Argentina, Mexico) and rapid credit growth add volatility, and routine post-drop law-firm 'investigation' notices are circulating.
catalyst: Q3 2026 earnings early November 2026 (est.)
added 2026-08-24, updated 2026-08-26 — source

Machinery

6861:JP Keyence Corp — buy (high conviction) — $513.00
thesis: Keyence is the picks-and-shovels supplier of machine vision, sensors and measurement systems for factory automation and the emerging humanoid/robotics supply chain; fiscal Q1 (June 2026 quarter) sales rose 33% to JPY 347B and net income 51% to JPY 139B, with overseas sales +39% (Asia +50%, Americas +31%). Operating margins above 50%, a 95% equity ratio and a direct-sales model with no factories give it one of the most durable moats in industrial tech; shares hit an all-time high in mid-August, pulled back ~7% with the global tech selloff, closed +1.7% at JPY 82,250 on Aug 25 and were trading -0.8% at JPY 81,600 at 11:14 JST on Aug 26 while the Nikkei rose 0.7% to ~65,560 (no company news; Goldman added it to its APAC Conviction List in early August), about 6% below the record, a better entry.
risks: Trades at a premium multiple that discounts continued 30%+ growth; a China capex slowdown, yen appreciation (USD/JPY ~159 flatters current results), or a global manufacturing downturn would hit both growth and the multiple.
catalyst: Fiscal Q2 results ~2026-10-23 (est.)
added 2026-08-24, updated 2026-08-26 — source
ASML:US ASML Holding — buy (high conviction) — $1,744.00
thesis: ASML is the sole supplier of EUV lithography and raised 2026 guidance for the second time to EUR 43-45B of sales at a 54-56% gross margin after a Q2 beat (EUR 9.3B sales, EUR 2.9B net income). Management says EUV capacity for 2027 is essentially fully booked with significant 2028 orders already in hand while it adds ~30% EUV capacity in 2027, giving rare multi-year revenue visibility in semicap. On Aug 25 BofA reiterated ASML as its top pick, calling the recent selloff unjustified; the ADR closed +0.2% at $1,744.16.
risks: Export restrictions on China, the July semiconductor sentiment reversal, and the stock sitting near the top of its 52-week range make near-term drawdowns likely even if the fundamental picture holds.
catalyst: Q3 2026 earnings on 2026-10-14 (before open)
added 2026-08-24, updated 2026-08-26 — source
TER:US Teradyne — accumulate (medium conviction) — $366.00
thesis: Teradyne is the leading supplier of automated test equipment for AI compute and HBM silicon and, via Universal Robots and MiR, the largest Western pure-play in collaborative and mobile robots. Q2 2026 revenue more than doubled to $1.33B (+104% YoY) with gross margin up to 59.8%, operating income up nearly 5x to $441M and EPS of $2.38 vs $0.49 a year ago, while robotics grew 33% to ~$100M; AI-related demand is now roughly 70% of revenue. Shares closed +0.4% at $366.43 on Aug 25 (dividend declared Aug 24) and are ~25% below their 52-week high after the semis selloff, adding physical-AI and semi-test exposure the list lacks.
risks: Trades at ~50x trailing and ~37x forward earnings and Baird downgraded to Neutral on valuation on Aug 21; test demand is lumpy and tied to a few AI accelerator and memory customers, and the robotics unit is still small and sub-scale.
catalyst: Nvidia earnings 2026-08-26 (read-through); Q3 2026 earnings late October 2026 (est.)
added 2026-08-24, updated 2026-08-26 — source

Energy

3750:HK CATL — buy (high conviction) — $81.00
thesis: CATL is the world's largest battery maker (~40% global EV battery share) and the clear leader in grid storage: H1 2026 revenue rose 55% to RMB 277B and net profit 42% to RMB 43.3B, with energy storage revenue up 88% to RMB 53B (nearly 20% of sales) as global storage deployments surge. It raised ~$5B in Hong Kong in April, announced a large buyback in July, Moody's moved its A3 outlook to positive in August, and on Aug 25 it agreed to pay RMB 2.56B (~$370M) for a 24.9% stake in Qiyuan Green Power, China's largest heavy-truck battery-swapping operator (1,600+ stations in 208 cities), making CATL the largest shareholder and the dominant player in commercial-vehicle swapping. The stock closed -2.7% at HK$621.00 on Aug 25 (Seres-backed Aiva is reportedly exploring joining CATL's swap network) and was trading +1.5% at HK$630.50 at 10:25 HKT on Aug 26 (day range HK$616.50-632.00) with the Hang Seng +1.0%, on no new company news; it is ~21% below its 52-week high, with scale, cost and chemistry (sodium-ion, LFP) advantages competitors cannot match.
risks: The Chinese EV price war is compressing customer margins and could spill into battery pricing; US/EU tariffs and FEOC restrictions limit access to Western markets, HK-listed China exposure carries geopolitical and governance discount risk, and the Qiyuan stake was bought at a ~120% premium to book, a reminder that infrastructure bets can dilute returns.
catalyst: Q3 2026 results ~2026-10-20 (est.)
added 2026-08-24, updated 2026-08-26 — source
GEV:US GE Vernova — accumulate (high conviction) — $927.00
thesis: GE Vernova is the key bottleneck supplier of gas turbines and grid equipment for the AI power buildout: Q2 2026 orders rose 88% organically to $24.2B, total backlog is ~$176B, the gas turbine backlog reached 116 GW (targeting 125 GW under contract by year-end), and H1 free cash flow of $5.1B already exceeded all of 2025. Capacity is being scaled from 20 GW/yr today to 24 GW in 2028 and 30 GW in 2030 with pricing power rising; the stock closed -1.6% at $926.73 on Aug 25 on no company news (the 295 MW Azulao I gas plant in Brazil entered commercial operation and a new medium-voltage UPS for AI data centers was launched; on Aug 26 at CIGRE Paris it added the F35g 170 kV SF6-free gas-insulated switchgear, completing an SF6-free GIS range from 72.5 to 420 kV that is available for order and built in Europe) and is ~23% below its 52-week high after a Q2 EPS miss.
risks: Tariffs ($100-200M hit in 2026), execution risk on the manufacturing ramp, and any slowdown in hyperscaler capex could compress the premium multiple; offshore wind remains a loss-making drag.
catalyst: Q3 2026 earnings on 2026-10-21
added 2026-08-24, updated 2026-08-26 — source
BE:US Bloom Energy — accumulate (medium conviction) — $217.00
thesis: Bloom's solid-oxide fuel cells have become a mainstream on-site power solution for AI data centers that cannot wait years for grid interconnects: Q2 2026 revenue jumped 166% to $1.07B with a 33% gross margin, and full-year guidance was raised to $3.9-4.2B revenue and $800-900M non-GAAP operating income. A 2.8 GW Oracle agreement and the Nebius Vineland win show the customer base broadening to hyperscalers and neoclouds, and the new Power Connect deployment system cuts installation time by over 40%. The Pelosi pop held all session: shares closed +6.6% at $217.45 on Aug 25 (after-hours $218.00) after +1.3% to $204.02 on Aug 24, as retail follows Nancy Pelosi's first-ever Bloom purchase (about $3-4.25M of stock and options, reported alongside Intel) and AI-infrastructure names (Bloom, Supermicro) rebound ahead of Nvidia; Goldman/sell-side EPS estimates are being hiked, and the stock remains ~36% off its June high.
risks: Up ~95% YTD but ~36% off its June high, the stock prices in flawless execution; a securities class action was filed in August (Kaplan Fox and SBS Law reminders on Aug 25; lead-plaintiff deadline Sep 28), and customer concentration, natural gas price exposure, and competition from gas turbines, batteries and eventually grid catch-up could slow orders. A retail-driven pop on a congressional trade disclosure is not fundamental news and can fade quickly, and Wednesday's Nvidia print will swing the whole AI-power complex; Mizuho and Clear Street upgraded on the pullback but Jefferies stays at Hold ($229). Buy on dips rather than chase.
catalyst: Nvidia earnings 2026-08-26 (AI-power read-through); Q3 2026 earnings ~2026-10-29 (est.)
added 2026-08-24, updated 2026-08-26 — source
ENR:DE Siemens Energy — accumulate (medium conviction) — $178.00
thesis: Siemens Energy is Europe's answer to GE Vernova: gas turbines, grid technologies (transformers, HVDC, switchgear) and wind. Fiscal Q3 2026 (June quarter) orders hit a record EUR 17.9B (book-to-bill 1.57), revenue grew 18.5% comparable to EUR 11.4B, profit before special items more than tripled to EUR 1.62B, pre-tax free cash flow rose to EUR 2.3B and the order backlog reached EUR 162B, with the Grid Technologies backlog alone at a record EUR 51B on transformer demand from US data centers; FY26 guidance was confirmed toward the upper end of the 10-12% margin range and Siemens Gamesa posted its first positive quarter in 15. The break-up question was answered on Aug 25: in an ad-hoc release at 20:25 CEST (18:25 UTC, after the Xetra close) the boards said Siemens Energy is starting preparations for the legal and operational separation of the Transformation of Industry business area (steam turbines, generators, compressors and industrial services: ~17,000 employees, FY25 revenue EUR 5.7B at an 11.3% margin, ~50% service, 85,000-unit installed base) into a standalone industrial-energy-solutions company. The objective is to deconsolidate the unit while retaining a meaningful minority stake, with options ranging from external investors (Goldman Sachs is running the process; CVC, EQT, Bain, Brookfield and KKR were reported as interested, and Bloomberg pegged the valuation above EUR 10B) to a capital-markets transaction. CEO Christian Bruch: 'If we don't change our structure, we limit what Transformation of Industry can achieve. Our current investment focus is on power generation and power transmission.' Shares closed +2.7% at EUR 152.76 on Aug 25 (day range EUR 150.48-154.88) before the release; the only post-release trading so far, on Tradegate up to 22:00 CEST, left the stock at EUR 153.50 (bid 152.90/ask 153.50), about 0.5% above the Xetra close, so there was no knee-jerk selling and the Xetra open at 17:00 AEST Wednesday is the first real test; consensus target is ~EUR 197 and the stock is ~20% below the EUR 191.66 52-week high. A deconsolidation at EUR 10B+ would crystallise value for a ~EUR 5.7B-revenue unit, fund grid and gas-turbine capacity, and leave a cleaner AI-power pure play in gas, grid and wind.
risks: The announcement is a process start, not a transaction: no buyer, price, structure or timeline was given, and Handelsblatt had reported the final decision may only follow the Nov 11 results, so the overhang shifts from 'whether' to 'at what price and when'. Deconsolidating a profitable 11.3%-margin, EUR 5.7B-revenue unit will optically lower group revenue and profit, the reported ~EUR 3B cumulative investment gap in the unit may depress the achievable valuation, and a minority stake plus PE ownership of the steam-turbine business gives up a franchise that benefits from AI-driven thermal power demand. The shares had already run ~4% into the decision; the flat Tradegate after-hours session lowers but does not remove the risk of a 'sell the news' move at the Aug 26 Xetra open. The stock trades at ~50x trailing earnings, wind remains a low-margin execution risk, and it is EUR-denominated with European grid and Middle East power exposure. Status stays accumulate/medium; we would raise conviction on a signed transaction at or above EUR 10B.
catalyst: Transformation of Industry separation (announced 2026-08-25): investor/IPO route, valuation and timeline; Q4 FY2026 results 2026-11-11
added 2026-08-24, updated 2026-08-26 — source

AI bubble bellwethers (is compute being sold at a discount?)

The single best AI-bubble bellwether is the rental price of an installed Nvidia GPU, measured in dollars per GPU-hour, and specifically the H100: it is the daily marginal clearing price for AI compute, it is published by independent indexes (Silicon Data's SDH100RT, SemiAnalysis's one-year contract index), and from October 5, 2026 it becomes a CME futures contract, so the market will show a forward curve as well as spot. Right now it is saying the opposite of discounting: the Silicon Data index sits at $2.53/hr, one-year contract rates rose about 40% from $1.70 to $2.35 between October 2025 and March 2026, spot has run at roughly twice contract, and a four-year-old chip is renting for more than it did a year ago while CoreWeave says it has contracted 2020-vintage GPUs out to 2029 at full price. Pair it with three things: neocloud credit spreads (CoreWeave's July loan cleared at SOFR+550 for a 10.44% yield with maintenance covenants, and its CDS implies roughly a coin-flip default probability), which is the financing leg and the one signal already flashing red; server DRAM and HBM contract-price momentum (+13-18% QoQ in 3Q26 after +93-98% in 1Q26, with 4Q26 guided to only +3-8%), because memory is the first physical input that will roll over; and hyperscaler backlog growth versus capex growth (Microsoft commercial RPO +84%, Oracle RPO +363%, roughly $2.4 trillion of committed cloud backlog against about $1 trillion of 2026 capex), because the bubble only deflates if the buyers stop signing. Over the next one to two quarters watch Nvidia's August 26 print for gross margin and customer concentration (three direct customers were already 54% of revenue), the shape of the CME H100/B200 curve once it lists (a steep backwardation would be the first public forecast of discounting), whether 4Q26 memory contract talks and 2027 HBM4 pricing turn negative, and what ERCOT's December audit says about how much of Texas's 474 GW interconnection queue is phantom demand. The threshold that would flip the call is simple: the H100 index sustained below about $2.00/hr, or spot trading below the one-year contract rate, while Blackwell and Rubin volumes keep arriving; until then compute is being sold at a premium, not a discount, and the risk lives in who is borrowing to build it rather than in the price of the product.

indicator	reading	trend	signal	why it matters / what to watch
H100 rental price, $/GPU-hour (Silicon Data index; 1-yr contract and spot) 2026-08-25	$2.68/hr index (0.0% 7d); 1-yr contract $2.35 (Mar-26) vs $1.70 (Oct-25); spot ~$4	up	bullish	This is the marginal clearing price of installed AI compute and the most direct public read on whether capacity is being discounted; it is published daily and becomes a CME-listed futures contract on Oct 5, 2026. watch: Bearish flip if the Silicon Data H100 index holds below ~$2.00/hr for a month, if spot trades below the one-year contract rate (inversion), or if the CME H100 curve lists in steep (>15%) backwardation; the Oct-2025 trough of $1.70 is the floor to remember. — source
B200 / Blackwell rental price, $/GPU-hour (on-demand) 2026-08-25	$5.50-6.80/hr at neoclouds (RunPod $5.98-6.79, Lambda $6.69); ~$5 in Jan-26	up	bullish	Blackwell is where new supply lands, so this is the first place a glut would show; if B200 rates fell toward H100 rates while Rubin ships, capacity would be outrunning demand. watch: Bearish if tier-1 neocloud B200 on-demand drops below ~$4.50/hr, if the B200/H100 price ratio compresses below ~2x, or if lead times for 8-GPU Blackwell nodes fall to same-week availability. — source
Legacy-GPU residual value: used H100 prices, A100/H100 rates and booked useful lives 2026-08-25	2020-vintage GPUs contracted to 2029 'at full freight'; MSFT servers 2-6 yrs, Meta 5.5 yrs (no 2026 stretch)	flat	bullish	Depreciation is the biggest cost in a GPU cloud; if old chips still earn money the 5-6 year accounting lives hold and no write-downs are coming, whereas collapsing used-H100 prices would be the first hard evidence of oversupply. watch: Bearish if 8-GPU H100 servers trade below ~50% of new-build cost on the secondary market, if A100/H100 rental rates fall below ~$1.50/hr, or if any hyperscaler extends server lives beyond 6 years to flatter earnings; also watch for Hopper impairments at neoclouds. — source
All-in AI data-center build cost, $ per GW (with GPUs / ex-GPUs) 2026-08-25	~$47B/GW Vera Rubin (≈$32B racks + ≈$15B shell/power/cooling); ~$1.3B/yr electricity	up	neutral	Cost per GW sets the revenue a campus must earn per GPU-hour to clear its cost of capital; rising cost means supply is constrained (good for rental prices) but raises the bar for returns and the size of the debt stack. watch: Discounting signal if Nvidia rack ASPs or $/GW start falling (Nvidia gross margin guided below ~72%, rack prices cut) while rental $/hr does not rise; bubble-risk signal if ex-GPU cost (power, shell, turbines) keeps inflating faster than rental rates. — source
Server DRAM / HBM contract price momentum (QoQ) and DRAM spot 2026-08-25	+13-18% QoQ 3Q26 (after +93-98% 1Q26, +58-63% 2Q26); TrendForce now sees server DRAM ~+270% cumulative in 2026, HBM +70-140% in 2027; DDR5 16Gb spot $54.17 (flat)	up	bullish	Memory is the tightest physical input to AI servers (HBM is 25-30% of a Rubin rack) and contract prices are negotiated quarterly, so this is the earliest cyclical input to turn; a price rollover would precede GPU discounting. watch: Bearish when server DRAM or HBM contract prices go negative QoQ (TrendForce already guides 4Q26 to only +3-8%), when 2027 HBM4 contracts are signed at lower prices, or when DRAMeXchange DDR5 spot falls >20% from peak; also watch whether CSPs start cutting memory per system, which TrendForce now flags as their cost response. — source
Power constraint: ERCOT interconnection queue, gas-turbine backlog and lead times 2026-08-25	474 GW ERCOT requests across 1,800+ projects (~427 GW data centers) vs ~193 GW installed; GE Vernova turbine backlog 116 GW; ~5-7 yr lead times	up	bullish	Power, not chips, is now the binding constraint on new capacity, which keeps installed GPUs scarce and rental prices firm; it also reveals how much announced demand is speculative once regulators force projects to prove financing. watch: ERCOT files its Batch Zero eligibility-verification and community-impact reports by Dec 10, 2026 for the Dec 17 PUCT open meeting, with RFIs going out Aug-Sep and cure periods Oct-Nov: large queue withdrawals (BNEF flags 49.8 GW at risk) would show phantom demand. Turbine slot cancellations or resales, falling data-center PPA prices, or turbine prices retreating from the $600/kW 2027 forecast would signal the build is slowing. — source
Hyperscaler capex vs cloud backlog (RPO) growth, and capex as % of cloud revenue 2026-08-25	2026 capex ≈ $1.0T (102% of cloud revenue); backlog ≈ $2.4T (MSFT $678B +84%, ORCL $638B +363%, GOOG Cloud $514B, AWS $496B)	up	neutral	Capex is the supply side and RPO is the contracted demand side; as long as backlog grows faster than capex the build is pre-sold, but capex above 100% of cloud revenue with negative free cash flow means the cycle is now funded by debt and equity and is sensitive to any demand wobble. watch: Bearish if RPO growth decelerates below capex growth for two quarters, if 2027 capex consensus (+57% per Morgan Stanley) gets cut or 'digestion' language appears, or if backlog concentration in a few AI labs (OpenAI, Anthropic) produces a cancellation or renegotiation. — source
Neocloud financing: CoreWeave loan/bond spreads, CDS, vendor backstops, customer concentration 2026-08-25	CoreWeave Jul-26 $2.6B loan at SOFR+550, 10.44% YTM; CDS ~855bp (Jul 29); vs Nebius $5B converts settled Aug 24 at 0.50% (2030) and 4.50% (2034), 40-45% premiums	flat	bearish	Neoclouds are the levered marginal builder of GPU capacity; their cost of debt, covenants and dependence on Nvidia backstops show whether lenders still believe rental prices will cover depreciation, and they are the first place a compute-price decline turns into forced selling. watch: Escalation if new deals price above SOFR+600 or 11% yields, CDS above 1,000bp, deals pulled or downsized, Nvidia's rent-back backstop extended to tier-1 neoclouds, or a top customer (CoreWeave's A/B/C are 36%/26%/10% of revenue) renegotiates; improvement if spreads retrace toward the April 9.75% level or if CoreWeave can tap convertible/equity-linked money on Nebius-like terms. — source
Nvidia data-center revenue growth, gross margin and customer concentration 2026-08-25	DC rev $75.2B +92% YoY (Q1 FY27); GAAP GM 74.9%; Q2 guide $91B, GM 75%; top-3 direct customers 54% of revenue	up	neutral	Nvidia's margin is the purest read on whether GPUs are being discounted at the source, and its concentration plus growing vendor-financing (backstops, campus guarantees) shows how much of demand is circular. watch: Bearish if gross margin is guided below ~72%, data-center revenue grows <5% sequentially, three-customer concentration exceeds 60%, receivables/DSO climb, or backstop commitments expand further; report due Aug 26, 2026. — source

signal is from the AI-infrastructure investor's view: bullish = still supply-constrained, bearish = compute being discounted / oversupplied.

Next fortnight (what to watch or listen to)

2026-08-26 to 2026-09-09 (UTC dates). Times as published by the source.

Wed 2026-08-26

[earnings] CRM Salesforce Q2 FY27 results (macro read) (after US close) — Enterprise software/AI-agent demand signal for GOOGL/AMZN cloud and the broader SaaS tape (NET, HOOD multiples).
[macro] MACRO Australia CPI July: 3.5% y/y (vs 3.2% consensus, 3.8% prior); trimmed mean 3.6%; +1.0% m/m original, +0.6% s.a. (11:30 AEST (released)) — Upside surprise on fuel and travel; markets now price RBA hike risk into the 28-29 Sep meeting, supporting AUD and weighing on the AUD-translated US book.
[macro] MACRO US Q2 GDP second estimate + July Personal Income & Outlays (PCE inflation) (08:30 ET) — Core PCE is the Fed's preferred gauge and lands two days before Warsh's Jackson Hole keynote; sets the rate backdrop for long-duration tech.
[macro] MACRO US Treasury $70B 5-year note auction (plus $28B 2-year FRN) (13:00 ET (2y FRN 11:30 ET)) — Belly-of-the-curve demand check hours before NVDA prints and the same morning as GDP/PCE; a tail would lift yields into Warsh's Friday keynote. Amounts per TreasuryDirect; 13:00 ET is the standard note auction close.
[earnings] NVDA NVIDIA Q2 FY2027 results and call (after US close (14:00 PT call)) — Largest holding and the AI-capex bellwether; data-center guide and Rubin ramp commentary move NVDA, AVGO, MRVL, TSM, MU, ALAB and SKHY together.

Thu 2026-08-27

[conference] FED Kansas City Fed Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium opens; theme 'Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy' (evening MT (Aug 27-29)) — Payments/stablecoin-focused theme is directly relevant to FIGR, HOOD, AXOS and Stripe; sets global rate expectations into the Sep 15-16 FOMC.
[macro] MACRO ABS Private New Capital Expenditure, June quarter 2026 (actual and expected capex) (11:30 AEST) — Feeds the Sep 2 GDP print and the RBA's read on business investment ahead of the Sep 28-29 meeting.
[macro] MACRO US Treasury $44B 7-year note auction (13:00 ET) — Completes the 2/5/7-year cycle before Jackson Hole; weak coverage would pressure long-duration tech multiples. Amount per TreasuryDirect; 13:00 ET is the standard note auction close.
[earnings] MRVL Marvell Q2 FY2027 results (after US close (13:45 PT / 16:45 ET call)) — Custom-silicon and optics read-through for the AI networking basket (AVGO, ALAB) one day after NVDA; Marvell also confirmed an Investor Day on Oct 6, 2026 in New York (outside window).
[product] Samsung Samsung Galaxy Event August 2026: Galaxy S26 FE expected (Exynos 2500, ~$799) (12:00 UTC (22:00 AEST / 08:00 ET), livestream) — Minor: mid-range handset refresh; only relevance is memory content and pricing signal for MU/SKHY into a tight DRAM market.

Fri 2026-08-28

[earnings] BYD BYD (1211.HK) 2026 interim results: board meeting confirmed for 28 Aug 2026 (six months to 30 Jun) (TBC (HK, board meeting 28 Aug; typically after HK close)) — Date now confirmed via BYD's HKEX board-meeting notice (reported by TipRanks/Globe and Mail); release time still not published. Margin vs record exports is the key read for CATL (3750) and the China EV complex.
[central_bank] FED Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman fireside chat (virtual) (12:45 ET) — Bank supervision and capital comments matter for AXOS, HOOD, FIGR, RKT and LDI.
[central_bank] FED Fed Chair Kevin Warsh keynote at Jackson Hole (livestream youtube.com/KansasCityFed) (10:00 ET) — The single biggest rates catalyst of the fortnight; any signal on September easing or balance-sheet policy reprices growth equities and the USD.
[macro] MACRO BLS preliminary benchmark revision to payrolls (Mar 2026) (10:00 ET) — Last year's revision was -911K; a large negative print again would strengthen the case for cuts and weaken the labour backdrop for credit names.
[macro] MACRO University of Michigan consumer sentiment, final August (10:00 ET) — Inflation-expectations component feeds the Fed narrative the same morning as the Warsh keynote.

Mon 2026-08-31

[macro] CHINA China NBS manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI (August) (TBC (CST)) — Official activity gauge for BABA, SE, CATL/BYD demand and for AUD via commodities; date per TradingEconomics (NBS calendar page not reachable).

Tue 2026-09-01

[macro] CHINA RatingDog (ex-Caixin) China manufacturing PMI (August) (TBC (CST)) — Private-sector cross-check on the NBS print for BABA/SE/CATL exposure.
[earnings] CRDO Credo Technology Q1 FY2027 results (quarter ended Aug 1) (after US close (14:00 PT call)) — Closest public comp to Astera Labs and Marvell's connectivity lines; hyperscaler AEC/optical demand and customer concentration read.
[earnings] DELL Dell Technologies Q2 FY27 results (macro read) (after US close (15:30 CDT call)) — AI-server backlog and shipment numbers are a direct demand check on NVDA/AVGO/MRVL/MU/SKHY.
[macro] MACRO ISM Manufacturing PMI (August) (10:00 ET) — New orders and prices-paid components are the cleanest read on the industrial/AI-infrastructure build (GEV, BE, TER, ENR); time per TradingEconomics.
[macro] MACRO JOLTS job openings (July) (10:00 ET) — First labour print of the week that ends with payrolls; openings trend informs Fed cut odds.

Wed 2026-09-02

[earnings] AVGO Broadcom Q3 FY2026 results and call (after US close (17:00 ET call)) — Custom AI accelerator (XPU) and networking guide is the key watchlist catalyst and a read-across to MRVL, ALAB and NVDA.
[central_bank] FED Fed Beige Book (14:00 ET) — Last scheduled Fed communication before the pre-FOMC blackout ahead of the 15-16 Sep meeting; regional colour on AI data-centre capex and consumer credit.
[earnings] HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise Q3 FY2026 results (quarter ended Jul 31) (after US close (15:30 CT / 16:30 ET call)) — AI-server backlog, Blackwell shipments and server margins alongside Dell (Sep 1) and Broadcom (same night); demand read for NVDA, TSM, MU.
[macro] MACRO Australian National Accounts: GDP June quarter 2026 (11:30 AEST) — Growth print that shapes the RBA's 28-29 Sep decision and AUD.
[macro] MACRO ADP private payrolls (August) (08:15 ET) — Preview of Friday's jobs report; time per TradingEconomics.
[conference] TSM SEMICON Taiwan 2026, Taipei Nangang Exhibition Center (Sep 2-4) (all day CST (Sep 2-4; forums from Aug 31)) — Advanced packaging (CoWoS/panel-level), HBM and 2nm supply-chain commentary from TSMC ecosystem vendors; read-across for TSM, MU, SKHY, AVGO and NVDA capacity constraints.

Thu 2026-09-03

[macro] CHINA RatingDog China services PMI (August) (TBC (CST)) — Consumer-services momentum check for BABA and SE.
[earnings] CIEN Ciena fiscal Q3 2026 results (guide $1.625B +/- $50M) (before US open (08:30 ET call)) — Optical/data-centre interconnect bellwether for hyperscaler capex; cross-read for MRVL, AVGO, ALAB.
[macro] MACRO ISM Services PMI (August); also Q2 productivity (revised) and July trade balance at 08:30 ET (10:00 ET) — Services activity and prices set the inflation tone into CPI on Sep 11; time per TradingEconomics.

Fri 2026-09-04

[macro] MACRO Employment Situation (August payrolls, unemployment rate) (08:30 ET) — Final jobs print before the Sep 15-16 FOMC; decides whether the market prices a cut and drives the USD/AUD cross.

Mon 2026-09-07

[other] MACRO US Labor Day: NYSE/Nasdaq closed (all day) — No US cash session; ASX trades normally, so AU-listed exposure moves without a US lead.

Tue 2026-09-08

[macro] CHINA China trade balance, exports and imports (August) (TBC (CST)) — Export strength and chip/commodity import data inform CATL/BYD, TSM and AUD; date per TradingEconomics.
[conference] MELI Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference begins (Sep 8-10); MercadoLibre presents Sep 8 (Cloudflare Sep 9, 10:10 PT, listed separately) (TBC (SF, PT)) — Major sell-side tech conference where holdings/watchlist names give intra-quarter updates; MELI fintech/credit commentary and NET AI-traffic commentary are the ones to listen for.

Wed 2026-09-09

[product] AAPL Apple September event: iPhone 18 Pro / Pro Max and foldable iPhone Ultra expected (date per Bloomberg, unconfirmed) (TBC (expected 10:00 PT; invite not yet sent)) — Loved company; TSM 2nm A20 volumes, memory content and iPhone Ultra pricing set the non-AI demand backdrop for TSM and MU.
[conference] NET Cloudflare fireside chat at Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference (San Francisco) (10:10 PT) — Intra-quarter update on AI-crawler/agent traffic, Workers AI and large-enterprise deal momentum; first management commentary since the Aug 6 Q2 print that sent NET up 17%. Slot carried forward from the prior calendar note (Sep 9, 10:10 PT); Cloudflare's IR events page did not render a listing on this pass, so confirm the webcast link on the day.

Companies I love

Anthropic (private) — The one company I would go all in on.
Stripe (STRIPE) — Gold standard in software.
Cloudflare (NET) — Internet traffic.
Amazon (AMZN) — Everything development.
Cursor (private) — Incredible tech.
Robinhood (HOOD) — Incredible tech.
Google (GOOGL) — Ubiquitous.
Meta (META) — High level of engagement.
BYD (1211.HK) — Energy / manufacturing play.
Apple (AAPL) — Always a good ecosystem.
Netflix (NFLX) — Casual watch, but less and less.
Spotify (SPOT) — Media (not as much).

News

2026-08-26

[-] MACRO Australia July CPI 3.5% vs 3.2-3.3% consensus, trimmed mean steady at 3.6%; RBA September hike odds rise to ~27% — Monthly CPI rose 1.0% m/m (0.8% expected) with trimmed mean 0.5% m/m (0.3% expected), fuel +7.5% in the month and housing +5.0% y/y; the ABS says trimmed mean is unchanged at 3.6%, above the RBA's 3.3% year-end forecast. Markets lifted September hike pricing to 27% from 17% and February 2027 to 80%; AUD/USD rose 0.2% to ~0.7176 while the ASX 200 gave up early gains. source
[+] MACRO Oil falls a third day on Iran-Oman Hormuz corridor talks; WTI $80.42 (-2.4%), Asia energy stocks slide — Iran and Oman are discussing an interim framework including a temporary navigational corridor and mine clearing for a strait that carried about a fifth of global oil and LNG shipments. Woodside fell more than 4%, Santos ~2%, SK Innovation over 16% and the ASX 200 energy sub-index 2.5%; Brent is $86.41 (-2.5%). source
[+] BABA Alibaba HK shares +1.7% to HK$116.10 on placement settlement day, 3% above the HK$112.70 placing price — Hong Kong trading has held above the HK$112.70 placement price with a day range of HK$115.60-117.80 and ~39M shares traded by midday, as the HK$80B placing of 710M shares closes today. Hang Seng +1.0% to 25,757. source
[n] NVDA Nvidia preview: guide implies ~$91B, consensus $91.7-92.2B and ~$2.08 EPS; guide assumes zero China data-centre revenue, $80B buyback unused — Results land ~6:30am AEST Thursday with the call at 7am AEST. Focus is the Q3 outlook (street ~$104.2B, ~75% gross margin), Blackwell Ultra supply and hyperscaler capex commentary; any China data-centre revenue would be an upside surprise since guidance assumes none. The stock ended a seven-session losing streak on Tuesday, so some optimism is already priced. source
[+] META Bloomberg: Meta and state AGs have discussed a mid-trial settlement of the teen social media case — Reuters relays a Bloomberg report that Meta and state attorneys general discussed settling in the second week of the Oakland trial; Meta's worst-case estimate is $1.4T of exposure but any deal would be far smaller. Meta has not commented; shares were $567.75 after hours. source
[n] MU Micron CEO Mehrotra sold $38.7M of stock under a 10b5-1 plan — Mehrotra sold 39,994 shares at $959-990 on Aug 21 under a plan adopted Jan 30, retaining 264,503 shares directly and 607,075 via GRATs. Routine, but it lands as the stock sits below its 50-day. source
[n] OPENAI 9fin: Goldman Sachs AM arranging $6.6B GPU-backed private debt for OpenAI with Nvidia backstop — A privately placed $6.6B debt package secured on GPUs and supported by an Nvidia backstop is being put together by GSAM. It is debt, not equity, so it does not move the ~$852B mark, but it adds to Nvidia's customer-financing exposure heading into tonight's call. source
[+] SKHY SK hynix +1.2% midday Seoul as chipmakers lead Kospi higher into Nvidia — Seoul shares reversed a weak open to KRW 1,698,000 (+1.2%) by 11:20 KST, day range 1,662,000-1,717,000; Kospi +0.9% to 6,804 and Samsung +2.1%. No news yet from the restarted union wage talks; the stock remains ~9% below its 200-day average. ADR last $159.53. source
[+] ANTHROPIC Anthropic sought up to 5GW of AI training capacity in NSW, government emails show — ABC obtained a March 18 Infrastructure NSW email saying Anthropic's CEO wanted to discuss locating up to 5GW of AI training capacity in NSW, possibly outside Sydney; Amodei visited two weeks later. NSW says the figure reflected initial interest and was one of several hyperscale approaches. source
[+] 1211.HK BYD's Fangchengbao off-road brand tripled China sales in Jan-Jul as group growth slows — Nikkei reports Fangchengbao sales tripled year on year over January-July while BYD's overall growth slowed, with the brand's first sedan about to launch. A higher-margin sub-brand growing into Friday's interim results. source
[-] MACRO Intuit drops 7% after hours on FY27 growth guide of 9-10% — Q4 EPS $4.03 and revenue $4.354B both beat, but FY27 revenue growth of 9-10% versus 14% in FY26 and a flat-to-down Mailchimp outlook wiped about $6.9B of value; Zoom fell 3.9% on an in-line revenue guide while Semtech guided Q3 revenue to $405-415M versus $379M consensus. source
[+] MACRO Iran and Oman propose temporary Hormuz shipping corridor with mine-clearing — A phased framework covers a temporary joint navigation corridor, joint mine-clearing and talks on a permanent corridor, with other Gulf states to be involved; traffic through the strait, which normally carries about a fifth of seaborne oil and LNG, remains largely paralysed, and China condemned the new US sanctions. source
[n] MACRO Australia July CPI due 11:30 AEST: consensus 3.2-3.3% headline, trimmed mean 3.5% — CBA and ANZ look for 3.2% y/y and NAB and Westpac 3.3%, down from 3.8% on fuel base effects, with the trimmed mean seen easing to about 3.5% from 3.6%; Westpac's 0.4% m/m trimmed-mean call sits slightly above the RBA's track, and an in-line or softer core print would extend the hold at 4.35%. source
[n] GOOGL Google launches Ask Gemini in Google Chat for Workspace customers — From Aug 26 Workspace users can query Gmail, Drive and Calendar, draft updates and generate images from inside Google Chat. Promotional higher usage limits run through Oct 1, 2026, after which usage caps apply. Incremental product depth for Workspace rather than a revenue event. source
[n] GEV GE Vernova launches 170 kV SF6-free switchgear at CIGRE Paris — The F35g 170 kV gas-insulated switchgear uses g3 instead of SF6 and completes GE Vernova's SF6-free GIS range from 72.5 to 420 kV. Built in Europe and available for order; no customer orders or volumes disclosed. Product news, not a guidance event. source

2026-08-25

[+] GOOGL Google Cloud launches Gemini Enterprise for Legal in preview — Cleary, Freshfields, Weil and Williams & Connolly are launch customers, with connectors to Harvey, iManage, NetDocuments, RelativityOne, Everlaw and Docusign. Second vertical in a day after Financial Services; supports the Cloud growth case. source
[-] META Mosseri denies suppressing child-safety risks; Instagram design chief admits data was cut from 2023 safety deck — Instagram head Adam Mosseri testified in Oakland that he neither encouraged nor knew of any policy to keep negative information from the public. Earlier, product-design director Francesco Fogu acknowledged that data showing teens encountered 1.5x more bullying, suicide, hate, nudity and violent content than adults was removed from a 2023 safety presentation, and that 'take a break' adoption would suffer without being on by default. The 29-state trial runs through September. source
[+] AMZN Amazon's US apparel share nearly doubles to 17.8% since 2019 as Walmart slips to 6.0% — PYMNTS Intelligence analysis of company revenue against Census clothing sales puts Amazon at 17.8% of US clothing spend in 2026 versus 8.5% in 2019, with apparel sales of $109.4B in 2025 and $55.5B in H1 2026. Walmart's share fell from 7.3% to 6.0% over the same period. source
[n] NVDA Street looks for $92.2B revenue and a ~$104B Q3 guide as Rubin hand-off and AI financing take centre stage — Consensus for Wednesday's print is $92.18B revenue (nearly double y/y) with Q3 guidance expected near $104.2B (+82.8%) and ~75% gross margin; Morgan Stanley estimates Rubin could add almost $9B of Q3 sales. Nvidia's ~$500B customer financing and $105B OpenAI Ohio lease guarantee are drawing circular-demand scrutiny. source
[n] MRVL Marvell Q2 preview: Q3 guide vs $3.03B consensus is the swing factor, not the $2.71B Q2 number — Q2 FY27 consensus sits at $2.708B revenue (0.3% above the guide midpoint) and ~$0.93 EPS; the street wants Q3 guidance above $3.03B (+13% q/q) and higher FY27/FY28 targets. Google's 58.97M warrants at $206.58 vest one tranche per $500M of custom-product purchases, 240 tranches through FY2033. source
[+] ANTHROPIC Claude Cowork now shares memory with Claude chat — Anthropic merged the memory system across Claude chat and Cowork, so project context given in one carries into the other. On by default for Free, Pro and Max on web, desktop and mobile; sensitive topics excluded unless users opt in. Same day, Anthropic put up $5M in grants for open-source wellbeing evaluations (applications close Sep 21). source
[+] HOOD Robinhood closes up 8.2% at $112.09 on crypto rebound and prediction-market note — Bitcoin briefly crossed $81,000 and a Bernstein note pointing to ~$240B of 2026 prediction-market volume (and $1T by 2030) pulled attention to Robinhood, now Kalshi's anchor partner with 1,000+ contracts listed. Volume 9.9M shares, roughly 3x normal. source
[+] 1211.HK BYD to launch Sealion 08 flagship SUV on Sep 2, priced 230-280k yuan — Mid-to-large SUV in EV (up to 115 kWh, 900 km CLTC) and PHEV (275-300 km electric-only) forms, second-gen Blade battery and flash charging. The Sealion line did 227,415 units Jan-Jul, 10.2% of group sales. Shares closed HK$93.60 (+0.9%) ahead of Friday's interim results. source
[+] AAPL Apple Maps ads now showing to users in the US and Canada — Apple confirmed ads began appearing in Maps search results and a new Suggested Places section over the last few days, with delivery ramping to all users in the coming weeks. Ads carry a blue 'Ad' badge; Apple says location and ad data are not tied to the Apple Account. Adds a new services line alongside the M6 Mac mini / M5 Ultra Mac Studio pre-orders (ship Sep 22). source
[+] SPOT Spotify bundles fandom features into Premium; shares +2.7% to $552.57 — SongDNA credits explorer, a weekly Concerts Near You playlist, lyric translation, music videos in the US/Canada, and 'Reserved' (two pre-sale tour tickets held for an artist's top fans, Premium 18+ US/Canada). No new paid tier announced. Spotify says 100M+ subscribers have used SongDNA. source
[-] SKHY SK hynix wage talks restart from scratch; new union wants cash-only bonus — The tentative deal (6.3% raise, 60% of bonus in shares) failed by 25 votes of 15,045 cast, 93.8% turnout. Korea JoongAng Daily says labor and management return to the table after two months of talks, while a new integrated union formed Aug 13 with 3,400+ members is demanding the old cash-only formula. No strike call yet. source
[+] MACRO Wall Street closes higher ahead of Nvidia and PCE as oil slides 5% and yields fall — The S&P 500 rose 0.32% to 7,677, the Nasdaq 0.66% to 26,151 and the Dow 0.30% to 53,577 as tech rebounded before Nvidia's Wednesday report; WTI fell 4.9% to $80.65, the 10-year yield dropped to 4.62% and the VIX eased to 15.5. AMD (+4.9%) led on a Raymond James upgrade, Moderna jumped 14%; after hours Intuit fell ~9% on weak guidance while Zoom beat and raised. July PCE and the second Q2 GDP estimate land at 22:30 AEST Wednesday. source
[-] META Ex-Meta data scientist: only ~0.2% of teens used Instagram's break reminder; Mosseri takes the stand — In the 29-state teen social-media addiction trial in Oakland, former Instagram wellbeing-team data scientist George Volichenko testified under subpoena that roughly two in 1,000 weekly teen users activated the opt-in 'take a break' tool and that leadership rejected making it default because of fear it would dent core engagement metrics; Meta's lawyer countered that 0.2% still meant hundreds of thousands of teens. Instagram head Adam Mosseri began his testimony late Tuesday (Reuters), with the trial expected to run six to eight weeks. META still closed up 2% at $570.05. source
[+] ANTHROPIC Anthropic to pitch IPO investors a $30T+ addressable market on a $65B run-rate, WSJ reports — The WSJ reports Anthropic will tell prospective IPO investors its total addressable market exceeds $30 trillion, topping SpaceX's $28.5T claim, derived from 'the full scope of work that could be completed with AI models'. Q2 revenue was $11.6B, the annualized run-rate reached $65B at end-July and 2028 revenue is projected at $190-200B; an S-1 is expected within weeks for a September/early-October debut at roughly a $2T valuation, potentially raising up to $100B. source
[-] OPENAI OpenAI data-center chief Chris Malone exits, fourth senior departure before planned 2027 IPO — The WSJ reports Chris Malone, OpenAI's head of data centers since March 2025 and a former Meta and Google infrastructure lead, left last week, following Fidji Simo, COO Brad Lightcap and CRO Denise Dresser; the Journal called the cluster of C-suite exits unusual even by pre-IPO standards, while Greg Brockman said 'I'm a constant, Sam is a constant'. Sachin Katti now oversees infrastructure as OpenAI raises projected compute spending to ~$750B through 2030 and signs a 10GW Ohio lease with SB Energy backed by up to $105B of Nvidia guarantees. source
[+] NVDA Perplexity and Nvidia launch 'Portable Computer', a fully local AI agent for DGX Spark and RTX machines — Perplexity released Portable Computer, an agent platform that runs models, inference and security tooling entirely on local hardware (Nvidia DGX Spark or Linux boxes with 24GB+ RTX GPUs, Windows in September) for Pro, Max and Enterprise subscribers, consuming no billing credits for local work and asking permission before escalating to cloud frontier models. Co-developed with Nvidia, which calls it evidence that 'local AI reached an inflection point', it gives DGX Spark a flagship application; separately Nvidia is reported in talks to invest in Perplexity at a $30B+ valuation. source
[-] NVDA Morgan Stanley credit desk flags ~$200B of contingent financing exposure from Nvidia's AI ecosystem support — Initiating credit coverage with a neutral view, Morgan Stanley said Nvidia's balance-sheet support for customers via residual-value structures tied to a $500B+ partnership and revenue-sharing deals could reach ~$200B of total credit exposure by end-2028, including ~$170B of contingent and off-balance-sheet obligations, so 'conventional leverage increasingly understates the credit story'; it called the $1T+ of guided GPU/XPU financing the key overhang and told bond investors to be patient despite wider spreads. source
[+] GOOGL Waymo confirms Munich as first EU city, public robotaxi service targeted for late 2027 — Waymo said it will begin mapping and manual driving in Munich in the coming weeks with trained specialists behind the wheel, aiming to open fully autonomous ride-hailing to the public toward the end of 2027 in its third market outside the US; the German transport ministry and Bavarian government backed the move, with co-CEO Tekedra Mawakana calling Munich 'a world-class hub for mobility and engineering'. source
[+] RKT Rocket Money launches Rowan, an Anthropic-powered AI agent that acts on members' finances — Rocket Companies' Rocket Money unveiled Rowan, an AI agent 'powered by Anthropic' built on a stack of agents trained on Rocket Money data, which monitors finances over text, cancels subscriptions, renegotiates bills and automates savings transfers rather than just surfacing insights; it is available to select subscribers in a new Premium Plus tier with broader rollout later in 2026, a modest new monetization lever for the personal-finance funnel feeding Rocket's mortgage business. source
[+] MU BofA names Nvidia, Marvell and Micron among eight 'enhanced buy' chip stocks despite ~10% SOX downside risk — Vivek Arya told clients semiconductor risk/reward is positive despite three near-term headwinds (macro and data-center backlash, circular-financing concerns, heavy positioning), naming NVDA, MRVL, MU, LRCX, AMD, INTC, ADI and ON; BofA sees ~10% further downside risk to the SOX back to its pre-ChatGPT discount, which it calls unjustified given bullish Q4/Q1 seasonality and a 20x forward multiple against a ~70% earnings CAGR through 2028. source
[+] ENR Siemens Energy to separate Transformation of Industry into a standalone company, retain minority stake — In an ad-hoc release at 18:25 UTC, after the Xetra close, Siemens Energy said it is starting preparations for the legal and operational separation of Transformation of Industry (steam turbines, generators, compressors; ~17,000 staff, FY25 revenue EUR 5.7B at an 11.3% margin) into an independent industrial-energy-solutions company. It intends to deconsolidate the unit while keeping a meaningful minority stake, with options ranging from external investors to a capital-markets transaction; Goldman Sachs is running the process and private-equity interest has been reported at a valuation above EUR 10B. No price or timeline was given. Shares closed +2.7% at EUR 152.76 before the release. source
[+] AVGO OpenAI's Broadcom-co-designed Jalapeno chip claims to beat Nvidia GB300 on inference efficiency — OpenAI published first results for Jalapeno, the 700W inference ASIC it co-developed with Broadcom, claiming up to 1.9x throughput per kilowatt and 3.6x lower latency than Nvidia's 1,400W GB300. It is a public validation of Broadcom's custom-XPU model a week before its Sep 2 report, though Broadcom still closed -0.6% at $356.74 (after-hours $358.00) as the market stays focused on its AI-financing exposure; the claim also raises the bar for Nvidia's Wednesday print. source
[+] SE Sea Limited rallies 6.5% to $123.18 on no company news — Sea closed +6.5% at $123.18, its best day since the Aug 11 Q2 print, with no company-specific announcement; the move tracked a broad EM/Internet bid (MercadoLibre +2.5% to $1,997) and follow-through from post-earnings target hikes at BofA ($143), Barclays ($156), Morgan Stanley ($153) and Benchmark ($175). The stock remains ~36% below its 52-week high with consensus targets near $155. source
[+] OPENAI OpenAI publishes Jalapeño chip benchmarks claiming more throughput per kilowatt than Nvidia Blackwell — OpenAI released first results for its Broadcom-co-designed Jalapeño inference chip: SemiAnalysis's InferenceX benchmark shows more tokens per user and more throughput per kilowatt than current Blackwell systems, per TechCrunch. Hardware lead Richard Ho called it 'a very, very significant performance advance'. Limited deployment starts end-2026, scaling in 2027. Positive for OpenAI's cost curve, a narrative headwind for NVDA a day before earnings. source
[+] MRVL Marvell jumps 6% as Rosenblatt ($300) and Susquehanna ($265) raise targets on Google warrant deal — Marvell rose 6.7% in morning trade to ~$243, reversing Monday's 4.7% drop, after Rosenblatt initiated at Buy with a $300 target and Susquehanna lifted its target to $265 from $230, following Wells Fargo's move to $310. Analysts cite Alphabet's warrant for ~59M shares tied to roughly $120B of custom AI product business through 2033 (inference accelerators, storage controllers) and 25%+ sequential optical growth. Fiscal Q2 results land Thursday after the close (Fri ~6:30am AEST). source
[+] NVDA Nvidia snaps seven-day slide as Raymond James lifts target to $352 on server-CPU growth — Nvidia opened +1.4-1.5% at ~$211.66 after Raymond James raised its price target to $352 from $330, calling the CPU franchise 'strategically important' to Nvidia's ecosystem and forecasting a $201B AI server CPU market by 2030 (44% CAGR); the firm upgraded AMD to Strong Buy in the same note. Consensus for Wednesday's report is ~$92B revenue, with options pricing a ~5.4% move. source
[n] MACRO Consumer confidence dips to 89.4 as expectations sink, but stocks open higher on falling oil and yields — The Conference Board index fell 0.8 points to 89.4 in August (90.2-90.3 expected); the Expectations Index dropped 5.8 points to 68.2 while Present Situation rose 6.8 to 121.2 as 'jobs plentiful' improved to 27%. Stocks shrugged it off: at 10:15 ET the S&P 500 was +0.2% at 7,670, Nasdaq +0.6%, Dow +0.1%, the 10-year eased to 4.65% and Brent fell 2.5% to $88. PCE lands Wednesday and Warsh speaks at Jackson Hole on Friday. source
[+] BABA Jack Ma buys HK$600M+ of Alibaba shares; Joe Tsai adds another 720,000 — SCMP (owned by Alibaba) reports founder Jack Ma bought more than HK$600M of Hong Kong shares over consecutive days, signalling 'strong confidence' in the AI plan, and chair Joe Tsai bought another 720,000 shares on Tuesday, after the HK$80B placement at a 3.6% discount. Hong Kong shares rose 1.5% and the ADR is +0.35% at $118.88; BofA kept Buy with a $172 target. source
[+] NFLX Wolfe raises Netflix target to $95, says engagement data points to stronger second half — Wolfe Research lifted its Netflix target to $95 from $84 (22x 2028 EPS of $4.41, up from 20x), arguing Q2's soft subscriber and engagement numbers were a scheduling issue: Q2 releases' prior seasons generated ~765M viewing hours versus 1.3B for Q3's returning titles. Wolfe expects stronger H2 results and solid 2027 guidance. Shares rose 1.7% to $81.39. source
[+] AAPL Apple unveils 2nm M6 and quad-die M5 Ultra in new Mac mini and Mac Studio; no September invites yet — Apple surprise-launched a Mac mini from $899 on the M6, described as a 'cutting-edge 2 nm process' chip, and a Mac Studio with the M5 Ultra (36 CPU / 80 GPU cores, 1.2TB/s bandwidth); pre-orders open now, shipping after Sept 22. Apple did not send iPhone 18 event invites today; Gurman still expects them this week for a Sept 9 event. The M6 is the first volume 2nm product from TSMC's biggest customer, supportive for TSM. source
[+] GOOGL Google Cloud launches Gemini Enterprise for Financial Services and Legal with Moody's and Weil — Google Cloud announced industry-specific Gemini Enterprise editions for financial services (automating capital-markets and corporate-banking workflows) and legal, with Moody's supplying ratings and research via an MCP server and law firm Weil partnering, a day after the Verizon deal. Vertical enterprise packaging supports Cloud's +82% growth; shares were flat at $347.24. source
[n] META Meta up 1% as William Blair sees $100B+ AI-agent opportunity; trial week two turns to Instagram design — Meta rose ~1% to $564.58 after William Blair flagged a $100B+ monetization opportunity in Meta's business AI agents, adding to Monday's report that the Hatch consumer agent launches within weeks. The California youth-addiction trial entered week two with testimony focused on Instagram's design, and analysts note the injunction risk exceeds any fine. source
[+] FIGR Figure +3% as EDX Markets integrates YLDS as collateral and treasury asset — EDX Markets, the institutional crypto exchange, will accept Figure's SEC-registered yield-bearing stablecoin YLDS as collateral and hold it as a treasury asset; executive chairman Mike Cagney said institutions 'shouldn't have to choose between yield, liquidity and regulatory certainty'. FIGR rose 3.4% to $39.97. source
[+] ENR Siemens Energy board weighs EUR 10B+ majority sale of steam-turbine unit; no ad-hoc yet — Bloomberg-sourced reports say Goldman Sachs is preparing an auction of a majority stake in the Transformation of Industry division (steam turbines, generators, compressors; ~EUR 5.7B revenue) at a valuation above EUR 10B, with CVC, EQT, Bain Capital, Brookfield and KKR evaluating bids. The supervisory board met on Aug 25 to deliberate; no ad-hoc release had been published as of ~14:45 UTC (before the Xetra close), and Handelsblatt (via Stock-World) expects a final decision only after the next quarterly report. Shares are +3.2% at EUR 153.43 intraday (~14:45 UTC). source
[n] NVDA Options price a 5.4% (~$280B) Nvidia earnings move, the smallest implied swing in three years — Reuters/ORATS data show options imply a 5.4% move either way after Wednesday's report, below the 12-quarter average of 7.4% and the 6.5% priced ahead of May; ORATS' Matt Amberson called it 'some complacency' and Susquehanna's Chris Murphy said the era of 10-20% post-earnings jumps 'is kind of over'. Focus is on chip demand, margins and hyperscaler capex guidance. NVDA is indicated +1% pre-market at $210.67 after seven straight declines. source
[+] NVDA US futures rise ahead of Nvidia as Bessent's Iran 'economic onslaught' stops short of penalties — Treasury Secretary Bessent warned countries to cut Iran ties or lose dollar-system access but imposed no new penalties, so Brent slipped to $91.58 and risk appetite recovered: Dow +0.2%, S&P 500 +0.3%, Nasdaq 100 +0.6% pre-market, STOXX 600 +0.3%. Threatened 50% US tariffs on Canada were deferred several weeks. Jackson Hole starts Thursday with Fed Chair Warsh speaking Friday and July PCE due this week. source
[n] MU SK hynix union rejects wage deal by 25 votes; shares still close +0.4% as both sides return to talks — Of 15,045 votes (93.8% turnout), 50.08% opposed a tentative deal offering a 6.3% raise and a profit-share bonus paid 40% cash/60% shares; members objected to the stock-heavy structure. Management and the union will resume negotiations, with an industry source expecting a swift settlement rather than escalation, and no strike was mentioned. SK hynix closed +0.42% at KRW1,678,000 after an early drop, with the Kospi +0.7%. Read-through for Micron: rival labor friction is a minor supply-side wrinkle, not a demand signal. source
[+] MU Lynx Equity calls Micron's CXMT/Apple selloff an overreaction; MU +1.7% pre-market — Lynx's KC Rajkumar argued the report that Apple may source DRAM/NAND from CXMT and YMTC poses little real threat: CXMT is qualified only for one low-volume Mac model, not iPhones, and its poor LPDDR5X yields make it 'structurally incapable' of supplying Apple at scale, while YMTC is not qualified for any Apple product and allocates newer NAND domestically. Micron is indicated +1.7% at $925.80 after Monday's 5.8% drop. source
[+] TSM TSMC Taipei shares rebound 1.05% as Asia chip stocks steady ahead of Nvidia; ADR +0.9% pre-market — Asian markets recovered from Monday's tech selloff with investors 'more selective' on chips into Nvidia's report: TSMC closed +1.05% at NT$2,400 and the TAIEX +0.9% after hitting a two-week low intraday, Nikkei +0.58%, Kospi +0.68%, Hang Seng -0.08%, Shanghai +0.19%. TSM ADRs are indicated +0.9% at $413.80 after falling 2.1% on Aug 24. source
[n] BABA Alibaba Hong Kong shares +1.5% to HK$114.20 in second day of stabilization, but ADR -1.25% pre-market — After Monday's ~10% drop on the HK$80B ($10.2B) placement to fund AI, 9988.HK rose 1.5% to HK$114.20 at Tuesday's close, helped by the chairman and CEO buying HK$120M of shares. The US ADR is nonetheless indicated -1.25% at $116.99, so the stock has not yet built a base. source
[+] META Meta to launch 'Hatch' consumer AI agent within weeks, 'Watermelon' model targeted for October — The Information, citing internal documents, reports Meta will release Hatch, the consumer version of its OpenClaw AI agent, as soon as the next several weeks and is targeting October for its next model, Watermelon; Meta has considered tiered pricing for the agent as part of Zuckerberg's push to monetize AI beyond advertising. META is +0.6% pre-market at $562.25 as the California teen-addiction trial enters its second week focused on Instagram's design. source
[+] ENR Siemens Energy +1.8% as supervisory board deliberates Goldman-run steam-turbine stake sale; no decision published yet — Shares rose to EUR 151.45 (day range 150.46-152.20) after Bloomberg reported Goldman Sachs has been hired to sell a stake in the steam-turbine unit. German press says the supervisory board is meeting today on the multi-billion-euro division sale and broader separation, but no ad-hoc announcement or press release had appeared on the company's IR or press pages as of 08:45 UTC. Consensus target ~EUR 197; next results Nov 11. source
[+] SKHY SK hynix reverses 4.5% morning drop to close +0.4% in Seoul; Kospi swings from -4% to +0.7%; Needham lifts ADR target to $220 — After the union narrowly rejected the tentative wage deal (60% of bonuses in treasury shares), SK hynix fell to KRW 1,594,500 intraday but closed at KRW 1,678,000 as the KRW 40T buyback and domestic buying absorbed foreign selling; the Kospi closed at 6,742.73. Needham raised its SKHY target to $220 from $200, and the ADR is +2.3% pre-market at ~$159 after a 4.9% drop to $155.37 on Aug 24. Management and the union return to the bargaining table. source
[+] BE Bloom Energy +5% pre-market after Nancy Pelosi discloses first-ever Bloom purchase — A congressional filing shows Pelosi bought roughly $3-4.25M of Bloom Energy stock and options (up to $13.5M combined with Intel), her first Bloom trade, and retail traders bid the stock to ~$214.70 pre-market from a $204.02 close. Coverage ties the buy to the AI power boom; a class action (lead-plaintiff deadline Sep 28) remains a background risk. source
[n] MACRO Asia rebounds into Nvidia: Kospi +0.7%, Nikkei +0.5%, ASX +0.7%, Taiex +0.9%, Hang Seng flat; Europe and US futures higher as Iran sanction threats fizzle — Nvidia closed -2.9% at $208.48 (seventh straight drop) but is +1% pre-market; options imply a ~$280B swing on Wednesday's print, where consensus looks for ~$92B revenue and ~$104-105B Q3 guidance. July PCE lands the same day (core was 3.3% YoY in June; Fed minutes kept a hike alive) and Chair Warsh gives his first Jackson Hole speech Friday with the 10-year near 4.7%. Brent slipped ~2% to ~$92 as markets shrugged off new US sanctions on Iran. Keyence closed +1.7% at JPY 82,250 and CATL -2.7% at HK$621 with no company news. source

[+] positive, [-] negative, [n] neutral

Research log

Nothing here is financial advice. Holdings and opinions are my own; the "agent" sections are written by an automated research skill and may be wrong. Built 2026-08-26 02:53 UTC.